Author: Jim Dahl

Sioux-Pioneers matchup has playoff implications for both

The #14 UND men’s hockey team continues to do what’s required to keep its NCAA playoff hopes alive, but faces a tough test against the #12 Denver Pioneers, who also find themselves needing a good run to ensure an NCAA playoff bid.

With a win and a tie last weekend, UND can still afford one more loss and still be well-positioned for the NCAA playoffs (#13 or higher in the PWR Rankings) going into conference tournament time. With two or three more losses, UND’s playoff hopes would still be alive, but dependent on a good run in the WCHA tournament.

Probability of UND ending the regular season with a particular PWR rank or higher based on UND’s performance
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3 Win 4
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.35%
6 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 10.75%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 28.09%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.50% 51.64%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.38% 74.58%
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 8.54% 90.66%
11 0.00% 0.00% 0.12% 23.71% 98.18%
12 0.00% 0.00% 1.05% 49.03% 99.97%
13 0.00% 0.01% 5.96% 76.28% 100.00%
14 0.00% 0.21% 21.18% 93.17% 100.00%
15 0.00% 2.62% 49.72% 98.80% 100.00%
16 0.23% 11.96% 78.98% 99.86% 100.00%
17 2.04% 30.27% 94.10% 99.99% 100.00%
18 8.32% 53.23% 98.82% 100.00% 100.00%
19 23.98% 74.92% 99.81% 100.00% 100.00%
20 48.34% 90.09% 99.98% 100.00% 100.00%

With just one more loss, UND would stand about a 76% chance of finishing #13 or higher. With two more losses, that drops to 6%.

UND isn’t alone in watching this weekend’s matchup with keen interest. Denver wants at least two wins in its remaining four regular games to ensure heading into the conference playoffs at #13 or higher, though can afford to slip a little more than UND.

With a sweep last weekend, Minnesota is looking more like a lock for the NCAA tournament.

And CC’s recent struggles have given the Tigers a steep, but doable, hill to climb.

This weekend

UND’s outcome spread for the weekend is tightening up a bit.

Probability of UND ending the regular season with a particular PWR rank or higher based on UND’s performance
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
5 0.00% 0.00% 0.13%
6 0.00% 0.00% 1.51%
7 0.00% 0.00% 7.74%
8 0.00% 0.00% 23.03%
9 0.00% 0.00% 46.96%
10 0.00% 0.08% 74.56%
11 0.00% 1.10% 93.94%
12 0.00% 8.02% 99.78%
13 0.23% 33.01% 100.00%
14 2.64% 68.60% 100.00%
15 13.38% 91.72% 100.00%
16 40.17% 98.83% 100.00%
17 68.82% 99.92% 100.00%
18 87.60% 100.00% 100.00%
19 96.54% 100.00% 100.00%
20 99.42% 100.00% 100.00%
21 99.94% 100.00% 100.00%
22 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
23 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
24 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
25 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

While a sweep would obviously be great for the Sioux, even a split would give UND about a 69% chance of leaving the weekend #14 or higher.

Who Sioux fans should watch

Here are the outcomes that result in an average move of at least .75 PWR spots for UND across the simulations, sorted by UND outcome so you know which are defensive. Lists are in order of importance.

If UND sweeps:

  • Alaska-Anchorage over Alaska (sweep)
  • Colorado College over Minnesota-Duluth (sweep)
  • Notre Dame over Michigan St (sweep)
  • Northeastern over Maine (at least one)
  • Nebraska-Omaha over Minnesota (at least one)

If UND splits:

  • Alaska-Anchorage over Alaska (sweep)
  • Mass.-Lowell over Merrimack (at least one)
  • Nebraska-Omaha over Minnesota (at least one)
  • Lake Superior splits with Northern Michigan

If UND gets swept:

  • Alaska-Anchorage over Alaska (at least one)
  • Mass.-Lowell over Merrimack (sweep)
  • Ferris St. over Western Michigan (at least one)
  • Michigan St. over Notre Dame (at least one)
  • Minnesota-Duluth over Colorado College (at least one)

This being only the second week I’ve split the “what to watch” by UND outcome, it’s interesting to see how what maximizes UND’s outcome for the week changes based on UND’s own performance. If UND sweeps, Sioux fans will be cheering for Colorado College and Notre Dame to knock off bigger dogs.

With a one-week outlook, though, CC and ND will be nipping at our heels if the Sioux lose, such that our one-week PWR would be maximized by each losing at least one game. However, to make the tournament UND needs to be looking up the ladder not down, so our overall final PWR outcome still probably draws the most benefit from those lower ranked teams sweeping those higher ranked teams.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least a million monte carlo style simulation of the remaining games in the regular season. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations.

Resources

Sioux looking for sweep to bolster PairWise Ranking

With just 6 games left in the regular season, UND’s PWR outlook remains pretty clear. Consistent with last week’s forecast (that UND could lose two more and likely be in the top 13 at the end of the regular season) and results (one loss), this week’s forecast shows that UND can only lose one more and still be more likely than not to finish the regular season top 13.

However, as also revealed last week, if UND loses two more, the Sioux are right on the cusp (a 47% chance of being #14 or higher) such that a good result and/or a little bit of luck in the WCHA tournament could be enough to push the Sioux into the NCAAs.

Presented a little differently, here are UND chances of being at or above each rank at the end of the regular season based on the number of remaining games the Sioux win:

PWR
Rank		 Win 2 Win 3 Win 4 Win 5 Win 6
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.10%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 6.72%
5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% 23.02%
6 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.56% 51.30%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 6.03% 78.00%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 16.51% 93.08%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.33% 33.75% 98.37%
10 0.00% 0.00% 1.35% 55.06% 99.73%
11 0.00% 0.00% 4.48% 75.34% 99.96%
12 0.00% 0.02% 12.21% 89.36% 100.00%
13 0.00% 0.18% 26.55% 96.59% 100.00%
14 0.00% 1.02% 46.97% 99.20% 100.00%
15 0.02% 4.25% 68.87% 99.87% 100.00%
16 0.16% 12.70% 85.82% 99.99% 100.00%
17 0.93% 28.49% 95.32% 100.00% 100.00%
18 3.73% 49.73% 98.93% 100.00% 100.00%
19 11.86% 71.49% 99.83% 100.00% 100.00%
20 28.10% 88.11% 99.98% 100.00% 100.00%

Remember that once the regular season is finished, UND still has a chance to play up to about five more games in the conference tournament.

End of regular season outlooks for other WCHA teams on the bubble

Colorado College is in a slightly worse spot than the Sioux. Losing just one more gives the Tigers a 71% chance of finishing #13 or higher, while losing 2 more leaves CC with only a 3% chance of finishing #13 or higher.

Minnesota, in contrast, is in a slightly better spot than the Sioux. Even with two more losses, the Gophers stand a 79% chance of being top 13 at the end of the regular season. With three more losses that plummets to 6.8%, while with only a single loss that rockets to 99.2%.

One week outlook

The Sioux, once again, face a large spread in their possible PWR outcomes for the weekend. A sweep is most likely to push the Sioux into the 20-22 range, while getting swept is likely to drop them as much as ten spots.

Ferris St., sitting on its first #1 PWR ranking, is going to have to work this weekend to hold onto it. Even with a sweep, the Bulldogs have only a 35% chance of staying #1, while with a split that likelihood drops to 9%. The series, other than their own, which would be most beneficial to Ferris St this week is Merrimack defeating Boston College.

Minnesota faces an even bigger spread than UND. The Gophers have big stakes in quite a few games this week, cheering for (in order of importance):

  • Wisconsin over Denver
  • St. Cloud over Alaska Anchorage
  • Boston College over Merrimack
  • Massachusetts over Maine

Finally, Colorado College is the only one of the three WCHA bubble teams that is unlikely to move into tournament position this weekend, even with a sweep.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least a million monte carlo style simulation of the remaining games in the regular season. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations.

Resources

UND facing #5 UMD has opportunity to climb in the PWR

UND has the potential to make a big move in the PairWise Rankings (PWR) if the Sioux can upset the struggling Bulldogs.

With tie-breakers, UND is currently #15 in the PWR. (Current PWR)

A sweep would most likely put UND in the 8-9 range (about 61% likelihood), with 7-10 probable (about 91%).

Even with a split, UND stands a fair chance of climbing a little. UND would climb to 12 or better in about 17% of scenarios, 13-14 in about 48%, stay at 15 in about 21%, and fall to 16 or lower in about 11%.

Looking ahead to the end of the regular season

UND’s regular season outlook improved slightly over its weekend off. It’s starting to look possible to lose three more before conference tournament time and still be well situated for making the NCAA tournament.

What to watch this weekend (other than UND)

Minnesota defeating Denver would be a big help to UND. UND could easily take the comparison with Denver by flipping both TUC and COP.

Alabama-Huntsville over Miami also has a big effect on UND’s ranking. Presumably this is a defensive play, preventing Miami from the taking the lead in RPI and the comparison, should UND falter this weekend.

There are a number of lesser series that seem to have RPI implications that could help UND this week:

  • Bowling Green over Northern Michigan
  • Michigan over Michigan State (only helpful if they sweep)
  • Alaska-Anchorage over Mankato (only helpful if they sweep)
  • Alaska over LSSU (only helpful if they sweep)
  • Western Michigan over Ohio State (only helpful if they sweep)
  • Ferris St over Notre Dame (only helpful if they sweep)

The only surprise in that list is AA over Mankato, since neither is nor is threatening to become a TUC. I think it’s an RPI play, AA is an opponent of UND’s while Mankato isn’t, yet. If that’s what’s happening, this is one of those outcomes that’s helpful for a week, but doesn’t matter in the long run.

Resources

UND’s PWR not likely to move much in bye week

Bye weeks this time of year give us a great window into how much PWR movement is external to our team’s own performance. While staying put at #16 is actually the single most likely outcome, anything from #14 to #17 is reasonably likely (#10 to #21 are mathematically possible).

PWR Likelihood
10 0.001%
11 0.063%
12 0.654%
13 3.459%
14 11.078%
15 23.734%
16 33.407%
17 19.939%
18 6.276%
19 1.305%
20 0.084%
21 0.000%

The games/series that would benefit idle UND the most are:

  • Michigan sweep over Miami
  • Ohio St winning at least one over Michigan St
  • Ferris St sweep over Northern Michigan
  • Alaska winning at least one over Western Michigan
  • CC sweep over Denver

End of season outlook

The story is unchanged from last week, UND can lose 2 games and still finish the regular season with a likely at-large tournament bid (PWR higher than 13). With a sweep last weekend, they’ve moved from needing 8 of 10 to needing 6 of 8.

Most important series for UND

bigchief asked last week which remaining series is most important for UND. They’re all pretty close, but here are the average relative differences in rankings for UND based on its performance in each series:

Matchup Average increase
in PWR from
1 win		 Average increase
in PWR from
2 wins
UND over Denver 3.67 7.67
UND over UMD 3.70 7.49
UND over MTech 3.55 6.81
UND over Mankato 3.07 6.17

For example, if UND sweeps Denver it finishes an average of 7.67 PWR ranks higher than if it gets swept by Denver.

Checking up on last week’s prediction

Last week I said that if UND swept, #15-18 were most likely. As you can see on the chart, the single most likely ranking was #16 at about 22%, which is exactly where UND landed.

Similarly, UW showed a strong peak at #27, about a 61% chance, if UND swept. The Badgers currently sit at #27.

Mass. Lowell winning two of three last week prevented us from finding out if they were really on as precarious a cliff as I predicted, but they did land firmly in the predicted range for winning two. A split between Miami and Northern Michigan also prevented the big movement that seemed possible for both with a sweep in either direction.

Following Northern Michigan and Mass.-Lowell

These two continue to generate buzz, so here’s a longer term (end of regular season) outlook for each.

With 8 regular season games remaining, Northern Michigan is well-positioned, but needs to keep producing. A 1-seed isn’t out of reach, but would require a good run.

With 10 regular season games remaining, Mass.-Lowell is in the driver’s seat. Only a stunning loss of form, losing over half their remaining games, would likely drop them into the danger zone of not making the tournament. Winning 7 would position them well for a 1 seed.

Resources

UND’s road to the NCAA tournament is getting steeper

UND’s lackluster performance since A first look at the PairWise Rankings and UND’s tournament possibilities has made the road to the NCAA tournament a little bit steeper.

That article predicted that UND could lose only 4 more of its remaining 15 regular season games to end the regular season comfortably at #13 or better in PWR. UND having gone 3-2 over the first 5 of those games, the new forecast shouldn’t be surprising.

It looks like UND needs 8 wins in the remaining 10 games to stand a good shot of finishing in the top 13. Also remember that this prediction is for the end of the regular season, UND could easily finish in the mid teens and still climb to the high teens during the WCHA tournament.

UND this week

The current PWR table shows UND in sole possession of 19th. The opportunities for movement this week are pretty big:

  • A sweep leads to the most indeterminate outcome — UND most likely (75% chance) would land in the 15-18 range, though a bit higher or lower are distinctly possible.
  • A split would likely leave UND in the 19-20 range.
  • Getting swept would most likely land UND in the 22-25 range.

It’s also a big week for UND’s opponent, also fighting for a playoff spot, the Wisconsin Badgers. They’re looking forward to a likely PWR of anywhere from #18 to #28, depending on their performance this weekend.

On the cliff’s edge this week — Mass.-Lowell

Minnesota’s big drop last week was exactly as forecast, which got me looking for this week’s “Minnesota”. The team sitting on the edge of a cliff this week is definitely Mass.-Lowell. Currently #3 in the PWR, they would need to win all three games in the coming week to be likely to finish #2 or #3 (84% chance). Get swept? #14-15 are most likely, with #16 or #17 a real possibility.

Series of the week — Northern Michigan vs. Miami

There’s really only other series this week that could lead to even more PWR movement than the UND/UW series — Northern Michigan (#10) vs. Miami (#15). Northern Michigan’s likely outcomes range from #3 to #17, while Miami’s range from #6-#19.

A few technical notes

The PWR rankings on USCHO have been different from all other source (CHN, TBRW, SiouxSports) today. That’s because USCHO currently isn’t dropping “harmful wins” from its RPI calculation. I haven’t heard of any such change in the calculation, so will assume that USCHO just made a mistake and that the calculations here are right.

This week’s projections are as of Monday Jan. 30, including any games on Sunday but not on Monday. It’s getting tricky to pick an “as of” date when there are college hockey games most days of the week in the coming two weeks.

Resources

A first look at the PairWise Rankings and UND’s tournament possibilities

UND fans accustomed to slow starts might be tempted to brush off this season’s slow start as inconsequential, but should they?

January is the typical time to start paying attention to the PairWise Rankings (PWR) that mimic that NCAA’s tournament selection criteria. UND’s current PWR ranking is #19, which would not be sufficient to make the NCAA tournament, but the season isn’t over, so how much does that matter?

Some humorously early bracketology discussions in recent years led me to write an essay a couple years ago, When to start looking at PWR. In short, PWR is so volatile as to be almost meaningless before January; also, PWR doesn’t become a very good predictor of the end-of-season PWR (the only one that matters) until March. So, rather than write much more about today’s PWR ranking, I’ll spend the rest of this article focusing on where UND’s PWR could be in March.

UND’s 2011-12 PWR vs. past performances

UND’s current PWR ranking of 19 is the second worst for a Hakstol-era UND team at this time of year.

2008 – non-TUC (climbed to #5 at the end of the WCHA play-in round with a 15-2-3 run, fell to #8 after getting swept out of the WCHA tournament)
2006 – #18 (climbed to #10 at the end of the WCHA play-in round with a 12-2-4 run, to #7 with a win and a loss in the WCHA tournament)

Each of those teams made the NCAA tournament, but only after a phenomenal second half run.

Where will UND finish?

Mathematically, UND can still finish the regular season #1 overall even if they lose one more game.

The above graph is the distribution of rankings, given how many of its remaining games wins.  So, for example, the gray “Win 11” curve shows that UND is quite likely to have a PWR ranking of 10-13 at the end of the regular season if they win 11 of their remaining games.

Making the NCAA tournament is a distinct possibility. If you guess at a PWR ranking of 13 as the cutoff for making it at large (it depends how many lower-ranked teams get autobids, thus taking one of the 16 slots), winning 8 or 9 of the remaining 15 games could be sufficient with a decent WCHA tournament run.

Technical note on PWR (change in COP)

For students of PWR, you should note one change in the way PWR is calculated this year.

Rather than the common opponents (COP) criterion simply being a sum of each teams’ records vs all common opponents, it’s the average of each teams’ record vs each common opponent. That’s a subtle distinction, so I’ll try to illustrate it with a hypothetical example which highlights the reason they made this change.

Suppose these outcomes:

UND vs Sacred Heart: 5-0-0
UND vs Ohio State: 0-1-0

Minnesota vs Sacred Heart: 1-0-0
Minnesota vs Ohio State: 3-2-0

Old COP would be: UND 5-1-0 (.8333) / Minnesota (.6667)
New COP would be: UND .500 (average of 100% and 0%) / Minnesota .800 (average of 100% and 60%)

In short, the old formula rewarded UND for having more games against the easier opponent, despite having been winless vs the other common opponent. The new formula gives Minnesota the COP comparison for having winning records vs. both opponents.

I just stumbled on this, how is PWR being predicted?

I simulate the outcomes of the remaining games in the season a million or so times, using KRACH to predict the likelihood of each team winning in each iteration. That’s enough simulations to ensure that even the most unlikely possibilities occur at least once. For each simulated season I calculate what PWR would result from that set of outcomes. I then use the aggregate results of those simulations to assign a likelihood to a particular outcome, that is, if UND finishes #3 in PWR in 370,000 of 1,000,000 simulations, I say that UND has about a 37% chance of finishing #3.

Closing remarks

This is my first stab at firing up the PWR simulations and writing this sort of post this year. It does always seem to take me a little while to get back into the groove, so please point out any errors, questions, or points that need clarifying.

Though I started with an analysis of UND’s position, let me know if there’s anything else in particular that you’d like to see.

Resources

KRACH predicts the NCAA tournament

Everyone’s favorite college hockey ranking system, KRACH, has the nice feature that it can be used to assign probabilities to potential matchups.

Here’s what KRACH’s forecast for the odds for each team emerging as the winner of each round the NCAA Ice Hockey tournament:

KRACH West Game 1 Game 2
(Region
Champ)		 Game 3
(Frozen four
semifinal)		 Game 4
(National
Champ)
79.8926 1. Boston College 68.66% 42.72% 22.63% 13.81%
36.4671 4. Colorado Collage 31.34% 13.48% 4.70% 1.97%
           
55.0304 2. Michigan 57.52% 26.95% 11.90% 6.19%
40.6427 3. Nebraska Omaha 42.48% 16.85% 6.27% 2.79%
           
Midwest
100 1. North Dakota 81.39% 54.59% 34.39% 22.75%
22.8697 4. Rensselaer 18.61% 6.02% 1.73% 0.54%
           
59.5685 2. Denver 64.04% 28.07% 14.21% 7.67%
33.4557 3. Western Michigan 35.96% 11.31% 4.17% 1.66%
           
Northeast
56.1059 1. Miami (OH) 60.12% 33.87% 17.49% 7.86%
37.2172 4. New Hampshire 39.88% 18.39% 7.67% 2.72%
           
43.2361 2. Merrimack 49.70% 23.66% 10.72% 4.16%
43.7543 3. Notre Dame 50.30% 24.09% 10.98% 4.29%
           
East
64.4313 1. Yale 83.12% 48.35% 28.17% 13.59%
13.0846 4. Air Force 16.88% 3.74% 0.83% 0.14%
           
38.8342 2. Union 42.46% 18.63% 8.53% 3.10%
52.6189 3. Minnesota Duluth 57.54% 29.28% 15.60% 6.77%

NCAA Hockey Tournament Field shaping up

Other than the AHA champ, Cornell is the only possible non-top 16 autobid , so #14 in PWR will make it. #15 will if Cornell loses.

In the NCAA tournament: Yale, UND, BC, Michigan, Miami, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Merrimack, Union, Notre Dame, New Hampshire, Western Michigan

In if Cornell loses: Nebraska-Omaha, CC, RPI
In if Cornell wins: Cornell and two of those three (UNO, CC, RPI)

In: Autobid goes to Winner of Air Force/RIT

Out: Maine, Dartmouth, BU

A little more on UNO vs. CC vs. RPI (remember, which only matters if Cornell beats Yale, otherwise all three are in) —
Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Michigan or Notre Dame wins — RPI is out
Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Notre Dame ties Michigan, Miami beats Western Michigan — RPI is out
Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Notre Dame ties Michigan, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan beats Notre Dame — CC is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Notre Dame beats Michigan, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Notre Dame beats Michigan, Miami beats Western Michigan –- RPI is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan ties Notre Dame, Miami beats Western Michigan — CC is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan ties Notre Dame, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out

Team PWR Possibilitieis
Overall Win none Win all
Yale 1 100% 1 100% 1 100%
UND 2 75%
3 25%		 2 50%
3 50%		 2 100%
Boston College 2 25%
3 75%		 3 100% 2 50%
3 50%
Michigan 4 6%
5 16%
6 11%
7 23%
8 44%		 7 21%
8 79%		 4 13%
5 37%
6 25%
7 25%
Miami 4 57%
5 20%
6 18%
7 5%		 4 14%
5 40%
6 36%
7 11%		 4 100%
Denver 4 13%
5 39%
6 26%
7 22%		 5 28%
6 28%
7 44%		 4 25%
5 50%
6 25%
UMD 9 56%
10 44%		 n/a n/a
Merrimack 4 25%
5 25%
6 45%
7 5%		 6 89%
7 11%		 4 50%
5 50%
Union 7 44%
8 56%		 n/a n/a
Notre Dame 9 44%
10 6%
11 50%		 10 10%
11 90%		 9 100%
New Hampshire 12 63%
13 27%
14 10%		 n/a n/a
Western Michigan 10 50%
11 50%		 10 44%
11 56%		 10 56%
11 44%
Nebraska-Omaha 12 22%
13 38%
14 24%
15 16%		 n/a n/a
CC 13 25%
14 53%
15 22%		 n/a n/a
Dartmouth 16 44%
17 4%
18 8%
19 44%		 17 8%
18 14%
19 78%		 16 100%
Rensselaer 12 15%
13 10%
14 13%
15 63%		 n/a n/a
Boston University 16 56%
17 44%		 n/a n/a
Maine 17 52%
18 48%		 n/a n/a
AA 20 50%
21 50%		 n/a n/a

Final PWR predictions Friday morning update

The first two of the weekend’s games have been completed with one surprise outcome. Neither outcome shifted many teams’ fortunes except the teams involved.

I added Bemidji State because of their meteoric rise with last night’s win. They won’t make the NCAA tournament at large, so the Beavers’ only hope is to win it all.

CC has removed most of their downside, with an NCAA tournament appearance now seeming more likely than not. One win won’t shift their fortunes much and two earns an autobid, rendering their PWR meaningless. Remember that #16 in the PWR won’t make it at-large, because the Atlantic Hockey autobid will take the final slot. If CC falls short of winning the WCHA, they will join Nebraska-Omaha in watching Northeastern, Cornell, and Colgate closely, hoping none win their conference tournament and steal an NCAA bid from #15 or even #14 in PWR.

Duluth’s loss locked in their “worst case” scenario, which is making the tournament as a 3-seed.

AA’s loss knocked them out of contention for the NCAA tournament.

Team PWR Overall Lose all remaining Win all remaining
Possible
Final
PWR		 Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR		 Possible
Final
PWR		 Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR		 Possible
Final
PWR		 Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR
Yale 1 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 1
North Dakota 2 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 2 1 to 2
Boston College 3 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 to 3
Michigan 4 2 to 10 3 to 10 4 to 10 4 to 10 2 to 5 3 to 5
Miami 5 3 to 10

3 to 10

 5 to 10 5 to 10 3 to 4 3 to 4
Merrimack 6 4 to 10 4 to 10 6 to 10 7 to 10 4 to 5 4 to 5
Denver 7 4 to 10 4 to 9 5 to 10 5 to 9 4 to 6 4 to 6
Union 8 5 to 10

6 to 9

 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Notre Dame 9 4 to 15 4 to 14 10 to 15 10 to 14 4 to 8 4 to 8
Minnesota-Duluth 10 7 to 11 8 to 11 n/a n/a n/a n/a
New Hampshire 11 4 to 15 5 to 14 10 to 15 10 to 14 4 to 10 5 to 10
Western Michigan 12 10 to 19 10 to 19 12 to 19 13 to 19 10 to 13 10 to 13
Nebraska-Omaha 13 12 to 16 12 to 16 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Colorado College 14 10 to 16 10 to 16 12 to 16 12 to 16 10 to 15 10 to 15
Dartmouth 15 10 to 22 11 to 21 15 to 22 16 to 21 10 to 15 11 to 14
Rensselaer 16 11 to 17 12 to 16 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Boston University 17 14 to 18 15 to 17 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Maine 18 14 to 20 16 to 19 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Alaska Anchorage 20 19 to 23 20 to 23 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Bemidji State 22 17 to 28 18 to 27 22 to 28 22 to 27 17 to 20 18 to 20

Note — Michigan appears to have more upside potential if it “loses all remaining” than in the previous table. That’s actually a reflection of the possibility of a tie in the consolation game, which the previous table did not include.

Final PWR rankings predictions

I did some number-crunching on the remaining games and came up with the following possible PairWise Ranking (PWR) finishes after next weekend’s conference tournaments. The PWR mimics the NCAA tournament selection process, so teams above 13-14 are quite likely to make the NCAA tournament (depending on how many autobids go to teams that otherwise would not have received a bid). More information on the tournament selection process is available in CHN’s tournament primer.

UND PWR Possibilities

The Sioux, currently #2 in the PairWise Rankings, have limited potential to move. It appears that UND will finish with either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd overall PWR. Those results are heavily dependent on Yale, UND’s own performance, Boston College, and Merrimack. In a couple low probability situations other factors come into play, but for the most part those are the teams to watch.

  • If Yale defeats Colgate, UND can only finish from #2 to #3…
    • …and if UND wins the Final Five, the Sioux will be #2 overall.
    • …and if BC loses to Northeastern, the Sioux will be #2 overall.
    • …and if BC defeats Northeastern and UND loses a Final Five game, about 1/2 the scenarios result in UND finishing #3 overall (the outcome of BC’s remaining game is very important, but not definitive).
  • If Yale loses to Colgate, UND can finish from #1 to #3…
    • …and if UND wins the Final Five, about 99% of scenarios result in UND being #1 overall.
    • …and Merrimack and BC losing become associated with high finishes for UND…
      • …and if both lose their opening game, UND finishes #1 in 95-98% of scenarios (#2 otherwise).
      • …and if both win their opening game, UND finishes #1 if they win the Final Five, finishes #3 over 99% of the time otherwise (#2 possible but pretty unlikely).

Top 20 PWR Possibilities

Who’s making the NCAA tournament?

  • The top 9 seem a lock: Yale, North Dakota, Boston College, Michigan, Miami, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Merrimack, Union
  • The next 3 could miss with the wrong loss(es): Notre Dame, New Hampshire, Western Michigan
  • 7 of the next 8 are still alive, but need help outside their control (or to win an autobid): Nebraska-Omaha, Colorado College, Dartmouth, Rennselaer, Boston University, Maine, Alaska Anchorage
  • Minnesota seems out

What will the final PWR be?

Team PWR Overall Lose all remaining Win all remaining
Possible
Final
PWR		 Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR		 Possible
Final
PWR		 Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR		 Possible
Final
PWR		 Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR
Yale 1 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 1
North Dakota 2 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 2 1 to 2
Boston College 3 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 to 3
Michigan 4 2 to 11 3 to 11 6 to 11 6 to 11 2 to 5 3 to 5
Miami 5 3 to 11 3 to 11 5 to 11 6 to 11 3 to 4 3 to 4
Denver 6 4 to 11 4 to 9 5 to 11 5 to 9 4 to 6 4 to 6
Minnesota-Duluth 7 4 to 11 4 to 11 7 to 11 8 to 11 4 to 6 4 to 6
Merrimack 8 4 to 11 4 to 11 6 to 11 7 to 11 4 to 6 4 to 6
Union 9 5 to 11 6 to 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Notre Dame 10 4 to 15 4 to 14 10 to 15 10 to 14 4 to 8 4 to 8
New Hampshire 11 4 to 15 5 to 14 10 to 15 10 to 14 4 to 11 5 to 11
Western Michigan 12 10 to 19 10 to 19 13 to 19 14 to 19 10 to 13 10 to 13
Nebraska-Omaha 13 12 to 16 12 to 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Colorado College 14 10 to 19 10 to 18 12 to 19 15 to 18 10 to 15 10 to 15
Dartmouth 15 10 to 22 11 to 21 18 to 22 18 to 21 10 to 15 11 to 14
Rensselaer 16 10 to 19 11 to 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Boston University 17 13 to 19 14 to 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Maine 18 13 to 21 15 to 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Minnesota 19 17 to 21 18 to 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Alaska Anchorage 20 12 to 23 12 to 22 19 to 23 19 to 22 12 to 16 12 to 16
St. Cloud State 21 19 to 26 20 to 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Alaska 22 22 to 28 22 to 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A

PWR rankings assume RPI as a tie-breaker.

Notes

Due to the unusually massive volume of data in this post and timeliness of this information, I didn’t get to do nearly as much quality control and verification as I normally would like. If you see any obvious transcription errors, or have found scenarios that fall outside these boundaries, let me know in the comments!

Also, if there are outcomes for which you’d like to scenario, just let me know and I’ll give you the game results that you can pop into the You Are The Committee calculators.

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