Sioux-Pioneers matchup has playoff implications for both

The #14 UND men’s hockey team continues to do what’s required to keep its NCAA playoff hopes alive, but faces a tough test against the #12 Denver Pioneers, who also find themselves needing a good run to ensure an NCAA playoff bid.

With a win and a tie last weekend, UND can still afford one more loss and still be well-positioned for the NCAA playoffs (#13 or higher in the PWR Rankings) going into conference tournament time. With two or three more losses, UND’s playoff hopes would still be alive, but dependent on a good run in the WCHA tournament.

Probability of UND ending the regular season with a particular PWR rank or higher based on UND’s performance
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3 Win 4
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25%
5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.35%
6 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 10.75%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 28.09%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.50% 51.64%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.38% 74.58%
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 8.54% 90.66%
11 0.00% 0.00% 0.12% 23.71% 98.18%
12 0.00% 0.00% 1.05% 49.03% 99.97%
13 0.00% 0.01% 5.96% 76.28% 100.00%
14 0.00% 0.21% 21.18% 93.17% 100.00%
15 0.00% 2.62% 49.72% 98.80% 100.00%
16 0.23% 11.96% 78.98% 99.86% 100.00%
17 2.04% 30.27% 94.10% 99.99% 100.00%
18 8.32% 53.23% 98.82% 100.00% 100.00%
19 23.98% 74.92% 99.81% 100.00% 100.00%
20 48.34% 90.09% 99.98% 100.00% 100.00%

With just one more loss, UND would stand about a 76% chance of finishing #13 or higher. With two more losses, that drops to 6%.

UND isn’t alone in watching this weekend’s matchup with keen interest. Denver wants at least two wins in its remaining four regular games to ensure heading into the conference playoffs at #13 or higher, though can afford to slip a little more than UND.

With a sweep last weekend, Minnesota is looking more like a lock for the NCAA tournament.

And CC’s recent struggles have given the Tigers a steep, but doable, hill to climb.

This weekend

UND’s outcome spread for the weekend is tightening up a bit.

Probability of UND ending the regular season with a particular PWR rank or higher based on UND’s performance
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
5 0.00% 0.00% 0.13%
6 0.00% 0.00% 1.51%
7 0.00% 0.00% 7.74%
8 0.00% 0.00% 23.03%
9 0.00% 0.00% 46.96%
10 0.00% 0.08% 74.56%
11 0.00% 1.10% 93.94%
12 0.00% 8.02% 99.78%
13 0.23% 33.01% 100.00%
14 2.64% 68.60% 100.00%
15 13.38% 91.72% 100.00%
16 40.17% 98.83% 100.00%
17 68.82% 99.92% 100.00%
18 87.60% 100.00% 100.00%
19 96.54% 100.00% 100.00%
20 99.42% 100.00% 100.00%
21 99.94% 100.00% 100.00%
22 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
23 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
24 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
25 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

While a sweep would obviously be great for the Sioux, even a split would give UND about a 69% chance of leaving the weekend #14 or higher.

Who Sioux fans should watch

Here are the outcomes that result in an average move of at least .75 PWR spots for UND across the simulations, sorted by UND outcome so you know which are defensive. Lists are in order of importance.

If UND sweeps:

  • Alaska-Anchorage over Alaska (sweep)
  • Colorado College over Minnesota-Duluth (sweep)
  • Notre Dame over Michigan St (sweep)
  • Northeastern over Maine (at least one)
  • Nebraska-Omaha over Minnesota (at least one)

If UND splits:

  • Alaska-Anchorage over Alaska (sweep)
  • Mass.-Lowell over Merrimack (at least one)
  • Nebraska-Omaha over Minnesota (at least one)
  • Lake Superior splits with Northern Michigan

If UND gets swept:

  • Alaska-Anchorage over Alaska (at least one)
  • Mass.-Lowell over Merrimack (sweep)
  • Ferris St. over Western Michigan (at least one)
  • Michigan St. over Notre Dame (at least one)
  • Minnesota-Duluth over Colorado College (at least one)

This being only the second week I’ve split the “what to watch” by UND outcome, it’s interesting to see how what maximizes UND’s outcome for the week changes based on UND’s own performance. If UND sweeps, Sioux fans will be cheering for Colorado College and Notre Dame to knock off bigger dogs.

With a one-week outlook, though, CC and ND will be nipping at our heels if the Sioux lose, such that our one-week PWR would be maximized by each losing at least one game. However, to make the tournament UND needs to be looking up the ladder not down, so our overall final PWR outcome still probably draws the most benefit from those lower ranked teams sweeping those higher ranked teams.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least a million monte carlo style simulation of the remaining games in the regular season. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations.

Resources

9 thoughts on “Sioux-Pioneers matchup has playoff implications for both”

  1. Both games on Twin Cities TV…..NBC Sports Friday and TVs Pacific Saturday – Charter cable – Can’t wait!…..Need a Siouxweep!!!!!

  2. This is really nice information… I love reading this stuff, even if it’s from a North Dakota fan!  Thanks for all your hard work, and please keep the Gophers information in here!

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