I did some number-crunching on the remaining games and came up with the following possible PairWise Ranking (PWR) finishes after next weekend’s conference tournaments. The PWR mimics the NCAA tournament selection process, so teams above 13-14 are quite likely to make the NCAA tournament (depending on how many autobids go to teams that otherwise would not have received a bid). More information on the tournament selection process is available in CHN’s tournament primer.
UND PWR Possibilities
The Sioux, currently #2 in the PairWise Rankings, have limited potential to move. It appears that UND will finish with either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd overall PWR. Those results are heavily dependent on Yale, UND’s own performance, Boston College, and Merrimack. In a couple low probability situations other factors come into play, but for the most part those are the teams to watch.
- If Yale defeats Colgate, UND can only finish from #2 to #3…
- …and if UND wins the Final Five, the Sioux will be #2 overall.
- …and if BC loses to Northeastern, the Sioux will be #2 overall.
- …and if BC defeats Northeastern and UND loses a Final Five game, about 1/2 the scenarios result in UND finishing #3 overall (the outcome of BC’s remaining game is very important, but not definitive).
- If Yale loses to Colgate, UND can finish from #1 to #3…
- …and if UND wins the Final Five, about 99% of scenarios result in UND being #1 overall.
- …and Merrimack and BC losing become associated with high finishes for UND…
- …and if both lose their opening game, UND finishes #1 in 95-98% of scenarios (#2 otherwise).
- …and if both win their opening game, UND finishes #1 if they win the Final Five, finishes #3 over 99% of the time otherwise (#2 possible but pretty unlikely).
Top 20 PWR Possibilities
Who’s making the NCAA tournament?
- The top 9 seem a lock: Yale, North Dakota, Boston College, Michigan, Miami, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Merrimack, Union
- The next 3 could miss with the wrong loss(es): Notre Dame, New Hampshire, Western Michigan
- 7 of the next 8 are still alive, but need help outside their control (or to win an autobid): Nebraska-Omaha, Colorado College, Dartmouth, Rennselaer, Boston University, Maine, Alaska Anchorage
- Minnesota seems out
What will the final PWR be?
|Team||PWR||Overall||Lose all remaining||Win all remaining|
|Yale||1||1 to 4||1 to 3||1 to 4||1 to 3||1||1|
|North Dakota||2||1 to 3||1 to 3||1 to 3||1 to 3||1 to 2||1 to 2|
|Boston College||3||1 to 4||1 to 4||1 to 4||1 to 4||1 to 3||1 to 3|
|Michigan||4||2 to 11||3 to 11||6 to 11||6 to 11||2 to 5||3 to 5|
|Miami||5||3 to 11||3 to 11||5 to 11||6 to 11||3 to 4||3 to 4|
|Denver||6||4 to 11||4 to 9||5 to 11||5 to 9||4 to 6||4 to 6|
|Minnesota-Duluth||7||4 to 11||4 to 11||7 to 11||8 to 11||4 to 6||4 to 6|
|Merrimack||8||4 to 11||4 to 11||6 to 11||7 to 11||4 to 6||4 to 6|
|Union||9||5 to 11||6 to 10||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Notre Dame||10||4 to 15||4 to 14||10 to 15||10 to 14||4 to 8||4 to 8|
|New Hampshire||11||4 to 15||5 to 14||10 to 15||10 to 14||4 to 11||5 to 11|
|Western Michigan||12||10 to 19||10 to 19||13 to 19||14 to 19||10 to 13||10 to 13|
|Nebraska-Omaha||13||12 to 16||12 to 16||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Colorado College||14||10 to 19||10 to 18||12 to 19||15 to 18||10 to 15||10 to 15|
|Dartmouth||15||10 to 22||11 to 21||18 to 22||18 to 21||10 to 15||11 to 14|
|Rensselaer||16||10 to 19||11 to 16||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Boston University||17||13 to 19||14 to 18||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Maine||18||13 to 21||15 to 19||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Minnesota||19||17 to 21||18 to 20||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Alaska Anchorage||20||12 to 23||12 to 22||19 to 23||19 to 22||12 to 16||12 to 16|
|St. Cloud State||21||19 to 26||20 to 24||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Alaska||22||22 to 28||22 to 26||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
PWR rankings assume RPI as a tie-breaker.
Due to the unusually massive volume of data in this post and timeliness of this information, I didn’t get to do nearly as much quality control and verification as I normally would like. If you see any obvious transcription errors, or have found scenarios that fall outside these boundaries, let me know in the comments!
Also, if there are outcomes for which you’d like to scenario, just let me know and I’ll give you the game results that you can pop into the You Are The Committee calculators.