Icebreaker Preview: UND vs. Air Force

The last time North Dakota had as many as ten freshmen on the roster was 2005-2006, when the Sioux brought in 13 rookies. That group included Taylor Chorney, Ryan Duncan, Brian Lee, T.J. Oshie, and Jonathan Toews.

It remains to be seen whether this year’s crop of ten freshmen will find a similar level of success. UND’s first year players will need to play valuable minutes in key situations for the Fighting Sioux to compete.

With freshmen Rocco Grimaldi (lower body injury) and Colten St. Clair (NCAA clearinghouse issues) unavailable, the top forward line is expected to be Corban Knight centering Brock Nelson and Danny Kristo. Those three combined for 30 goals and 63 assists in 120 games last year. After those three forwards, however, the returning scoring is fairly thin. The only other returning forward to register more than ten points last season is senior captain Mario Lamoureux (3-14-17).

North Dakota’s strength this season will be in net and on defense. Junior goaltender Aaron Dell (30-7-2, 1.79 GAA, .924 SV%, 6 shutouts last season) returns as one of the top netminders in the country, and Brad Eidsness (24-10-4, 2.11 GAA, .914 SV%, 3 shutouts in 2009-10) has proven he can compete for the starting job. UND boasts four defensemen who played in at least 30 games last season (Ben Blood, Derek Forbort, Andrew MacWilliam, and Dillan Simpson), and freshman Danny Mattson should contribute right away.

After this weekend’s Icebreaker tournament, UND will play four more non-conference games at home (two games each against Maine and Harvard) and will appear as the home team in non-conference action against Clarkson in Winnipeg, Manitoba. North Dakota’s results outside the WCHA will play a large role in the final PairWise rankings and seeding for the NCAA tournament.

The Air Force Academy boasts two players with North Dakota connections. Senior captain Paul Weisgarber is from Fargo and freshman Chad Demers hails from Grafton. Ten Falcons players come from Minnesota. Up front, Air Force is led by Weisgarber (13-12-25 last season) and junior John Kruse (11-18-29). On the blue line, senior Tim Kirby (7-16-23) is more than capable and senior captain Scott Mathis (8-19-27) is one of the best in the country.

Head coach Frank Serratore’s Falcons have finished in the top three in Atlantic Hockey in each of the past four seasons. Air Force won its first NCAA tournament game in 2009 and took Vermont to double overtime before falling to the Catamounts one game shy of the Frozen Four.

The winner of tonight’s contest will face the Boston College/Michigan State wnner on Saturday, while the two losing teams will also play. North Dakota will play in the late game on Saturday regardless of Friday’s result.

The Prediction: Scoring will be hard to come by early, but the home crowd will help North Dakota earn a close victory. UND 3-2.

Bonus prediction: In the early game, UND fans will either cheer for Michigan State (green and white teams need to stick together) or against Boston College (all those NCAA losses), but it won’t matter. The Eagles will roll. BC 4-1.

Frozen Four Preview: UND vs. Michigan

The top two hockey programs in NCAA history will square off today with a chance to advance to the 2011 national title game. The Michigan Wolverines are seeking their 10th NCAA championship, while North Dakota is looking to hoist banner number eight.

It is worth noting that Michigan collected six national championships by 1956. In the past 55 years, the Wolverines have three. During that same span (1957-2010), the Fighting Sioux have won seven national titles.

The Fighting Sioux enter the tournament on a 15-game unbeaten streak (14-0-1), and boast a win total (32) good for third place all-time among North Dakota hockey teams (the 1986-87 championship team collected 40 victories, while the 1981-82 championship team notched 35).

Much has been made of North Dakota’s familiarity with Xcel Energy Center, and that part is true: UND has won its last five games in St. Paul, including a recent WCHA Final Five tournament title. But it’s also important to remember that while the Fighting Sioux are 17-4-2 (.783) on the road this season, the Wolverines are a far more pedestrian 12-8-3 (.587).

Michigan rode a pair of one-goal victories over Nebraska-Omaha and Colorado College to advance to the Frozen Four, while North Dakota steamrolled Rensselaer and Denver by a combined score of 12-1.

UND’s Dave Hakstol has led North Dakota for seven seasons, capturing two WCHA regular season titles, three WCHA Final Five championships, and five Frozen Four appearances. Michigan’s Red Berenson won titles with the Wolverines in 1996 and 1998, and has his team in the Frozen Four for the second time since 2003.

The Maize and Blue have played in the NCAA tournament in each of the past 21 seasons. Incidentally, the next longest active streak belongs to New Hampshire (11). Before this current stretch, Michigan had appeared in the national tournament once between 1964 and 1991.

The winner of this game will advance to the 2011 Frozen Four championship game and face either Notre Dame or Minnesota-Duluth in the finals. The Fighting Irish and Bulldogs are each looking for their first national title.

Michigan Team Profile

Head Coach: Red Berenson (27th season at Michigan, 727-338-73, .671)
This Season: 28-10-4 overall, 20-7-1-0 CCHA (1st)
Last Season: 26-18-1 overall (NCAA Midwest Regional finalist), 14-13-1 CCHA (7th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-5th
National Rankings: #6/#2
Team Offense: 3.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.26 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.2% (33 of 181)
Penalty Kill: 83.1% (157 of 189)
Key Players: Senior F Carl Hagelin (18-30-48), Senior F Louie Caporusso (11-19-30), Senior F Matt Rust (5-20-25), Senior D Scooter Vaughan (13-10-23), Freshman D Jon Merrill (7-17-24), Senior G Shawn Hunwick (21-8-4, 2.26 GAA, .922 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 187-92-27, .655)
This Season: 32-8-3 overall, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 2nd
National Rankings: #1/#1
Team Offense: 4.14 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.14 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.3% (52 of 223)
Penalty Kill: 86.0% (172 of 200)
Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (36-24-60), Junior F Jason Gregoire (25-18-43), Sophomore F Corban Knight (14-30-44), Senior F Evan Trupp (17-24-41), Senior F/D Jake Marto (8-11-19), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-15-15), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (30-6-2, 1.81 GAA, .924 SV%, 6 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 24, 2007 (Denver, CO). In the semifinals of the NCAA West Regional, North Dakota scored five power play goals to defeat the Wolverines. The Maize and Blue scored two opening minute goals in the first period and matched that feat with two early markers in the middle frame, but the Fighting Sioux fought back to advance to the regional final.

Last Ten Games: North Dakota holds a record of 6-3-1 (.650) in the last ten meetings between the schools, and the Fighting Sioux are unbeaten in the series since 1998.

All-time Series: Michigan leads the series 45-40-4 (.528), but North Dakota has won two of the three NCAA tournament games between the schools.

Game News and Notes

Michigan last defeated North Dakota in March of 1998, handing that Fighting Sioux team just its eighth loss of the season. UND has outscored opponents 78-20 during its current 15-game unbeaten streak. The Fighting Sioux are 24-3-2 (.862) since Thanksgiving; Michigan, 20-7-1 (.732). Today’s semifinal game will be covered on ESPN2, with live coverage of the Frozen Four viewing party at Ralph Engelstad Arena.

The Prediction

UND has small edges in almost every area on the ice: specialty teams, goaltending, depth, experience, and top-end talent. Michigan needs to score first to keep the crowd out of the game. I think this one will be tied going into the third period, with North Dakota’s depth shining through. UND 4-2.

Bonus Frozen Four Prediction:

In the first semifinal, Minnesota Duluth will ride the goaltending of Kenny Reiter and the FCC line (Fontaine, Connolly, and Connolly) to their first national title game since 1984. UMD 3-1.

National Championship Prediction:

I have a sneaking suspicion that the all-WCHA final will go into overtime and perhaps even longer, with North Dakota topping the Bulldogs in a championship game for the ages. UND 5-4 (OT).

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

NCAA to drop nickname settlement and sanctions altogether if UND wins hockey championship

We’ve just received word that the University of North Dakota has a tremendous opportunity to settle the Fighting Sioux nickname debate on the ice next weekend in St. Paul.

And it’s as simple as this: win two games at the Frozen Four, and keep the team name and logo forever.

NCAA president Mark Emmert said that the organization’s change of heart came after watching North Dakota play in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay, Wisconsin last weekend. Emmert said he was impressed by the quality of play and quality of character demonstrated by the Green and White against RPI and Denver. Furthermore, Emmert noted that he had been swayed by the sheer number of Sioux fans in attendance, also noting the pro-UND crowd at the WCHA Final Five.

Dr. Mark A. Emmert became the 5th Executive Director of the National Collegiate Athletic Association on November 1, 2010, and he has already made waves for his desire to have a serious discussion about whether and how to share some of the NCAA’s profits with student-athletes.

So it’s no surprise that the new president decided that the decision and settlement struck by predecessor Myles Brand deserved a second look. After some careful deliberation, Emmert came up with an idea that is both innovative and intriguing: let the team earn the right to keep the name by competing for it on the ice. He was clear, however, that anything less than a national championship would not sway the NCAA.

A news conference is scheduled for 4:01 p.m. CDT.

NCAA Tournament Preview: UND vs. Denver

Sioux senior forward Matt Frattin has now scored a goal in nine straight games, and his 36 goals this season place him in the top ten among North Dakota’s all-time single season goal scorers. Frattin would need four more goals to break into the top five, a list that includes Bob Joyce (52 goals in 1986-87), Tony Hrkac (46 in 1986-87), Doug Smail (43 in 1979-80), Russ Romaniuk (40 in 1990-91), and Ben Cherski (40 in 1953-54).

During UND’s current 14 game unbeaten streak (13-0-1), Frattin has notched 16 goals and added 13 assists for 29 points (2.07 points per game).

In Denver’s last twelve contests, the Pioneers are 7-5-0. Three of DU’s last four games have gone to overtime, including last night’s double overtime victory over Western Michigan.

The Pioneers had an interesting cycle broken at the 2011 WCHA Final Five. Had the Pioneers defeated North Dakota in the title game, they would have continued their string of WCHA playoff championships every three years (1999, 2002, 2005, 2008).

After winning back-to-back national championships in 2004 and 2005, the Pios missed the NCAA tournament for two seasons before making a return in 2008. DU has played in the NCAAs the past four seasons, while North Dakota is making their ninth straight appearance.

Denver’s George Gwozdecky has been behind the bench for 17 seasons, leading the Pioneers to three WCHA regular season titles, four WCHA Final Five championships, and two national championships. UND’s Dave Hakstol has led North Dakota for seven seasons, capturing two WCHA regular season titles, three WCHA Final Five championships, and four Frozen Four appearances.

The winner of this game will advance to the 2011 Frozen Four (St. Paul, MN) and face Michigan in the semifinals. The Michigan Wolverines have nine national titles to their credit, while the Denver Pioneers and North Dakota Fighting Sioux each claim seven.

The other half of the Frozen Four bracket claims much less hardware. Minnesota-Duluth will face either Notre Dame or New Hampshire in the other semifinal in St. Paul. All three of those teams are looking for their first national championship.

There has been no official word on Sioux center Brock Nelson’s injury, although the team does not expect him back in the lineup against Denver.

Denver Team Profile

Head Coach: George Gwozdecky (17th season at DU, 398-238-55 .616)

This Season: 25-11-5 overall, 17-8-3 WCHA (2nd)
Last Season: 27-10-4 Overall (NCAA East Regional Semifinalist), 19-5-4 WCHA (1st)

Pairwise Ranking: 7th
National Rankings: #5/#5

Team Offense: 3.29 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.61 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.0% (35 of 184)
Penalty Kill: 86.3% (164 of 190)

Key Players: Freshman F Jason Zucker (22-22-44), Senior F Kyle Ostrow (15-13-28), Senior F Drew Shore (23-23-46), Senior F Anthony Maiani (8-28-36), Freshman D David Makowski (6-23-29), Sophomore D Matt Donovan (9-23-32), Freshman G Sam Brittain (19-8-5, 2.20 GAA, .924 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 186-92-27, .653)
This Season: 31-8-3 overall, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 2nd
National Rankings: #1/#1

Team Offense: 4.05 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.22 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.0% (48 of 209)
Penalty Kill: 85.1% (160 of 188)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (36-23-59), Junior F Jason Gregoire (25-17-42), Sophomore F Corban Knight (14-30-44), Senior F Evan Trupp (16-24-40), Senior F/D Jake Marto (7-11-18), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-15-15), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (29-6-2, 1.83 GAA, .923 SV%, 6 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 19, 2011 (St. Paul, MN). North Dakota and Denver needed two overtimes to decide the WCHA Final Five championship, and Matt Frattin provided the knockout punch. Frattin also netted the game-winner against Colorado College one night earlier and was named the Most Outstanding Player of the tournament. Exactly one year earlier, North Dakota knocked off the #1-seeded Pioneers to advance to the Final Five title game.

Last Meeting in the NCAA tournament: April 9, 2005 (St. Louis, MO). Denver’s Paul Stastny (two goals and one assist) and Peter Mannino (44 saves) led the Pioneers to a 4-1 victory in the 2005 national championship game. Travis Zajac scored the only goal for North Dakota, who put 23 shots on net in the third period alone but came up empty.

Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963.

Last Ten Games: Denver has had a slight edge lately, going 5-4-1 (.550) in the last ten meetings between the schools.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 132-115-8 (.533).

Game News and Notes

Denver freshman forward Jason Zucker scored three goals in a weekend series at North Dakota in October but was held off the scoresheet against UND at the WCHA Final Five. North Dakota is the only #1 seed remaining in the NCAA tournament (Boston College, Miami, and Yale lost this weekend). Hobey Baker hopeful Matt Frattin has 47 goals in his last 55 games. In this year’s playoffs (five games) the Pioneers have outscored opponents 13-1 in the third period. UND sophomore netminder Aaron Dell notched his 29th victory of the season against RPI, tying Ed Belfour’s single season record at North Dakota.

The Prediction

Denver has talent, grit, and resiliency, and they are never out of a game until the final whistle. That being said, UND is on a mission this season, and they have their sights set on the Frozen Four. This game will be an instant classic and could go either way. The Pioneers had to settle for second place in the WCHA regular season and at the Final Five, and they’ll end up in the same spot again. North Dakota 4-3.

NCAA Tournament Preview: UND vs. Rensselaer

RPI head coach Seth Appert left the coaching staff at Denver University following the 2005-06 season, and in his first three years behind the bench for the Engineers, he collected 31 victories (31-68-14).

With a victory today, North Dakota would collect its 31st victory of the 2010-11 season.

To be fair, Appert has turned things around at Rensselaer. Last season, RPI finished above .500 (18-17-4), and this year, the Engineers are back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1995. Rensselaer won the ECAC playoff title that season, and has not collected any hardware since then, a span of 15 years.

Since 1995, North Dakota has won six WCHA regular season titles, four WCHA playoff championships, and two national titles among 13 NCAA tournament appearances and seven trips the Frozen Four.

RPI senior forward Chase Polacek is the two-time ECAC player of the year and a Hobey Baker finalist this season. 11 of his 21 goals have come with the man advantage, and he has nine game winners to his credit.

North Dakota boasts a Hobey finalist of their own in senior forward Matt Frattin, who netted both game winners last weekend at the WCHA Final Five. Frattin’s 35 goals lead the nation, and he is almost certain to find his name in the Hobey Hat Trick later this month.

Rensselaer hasn’t played since March 6th, when they were bounced by Colgate in double overtime in the first round of the ECAC playoffs. RPI has won only twice in the last nine games (2-6-1), with three of those losses coming in overtime. To be be fair, goaltender Allen York was sick or injured for the majority of that stretch.

UND is unbeaten in their last 13 games (12-0-1), outscoring opponents 66-19 in that span. It is worth noting that two of those victories came against Colorado College by scores of 6-0 and 4-3.

In one-goal games this season, North Dakota is 8-3-0, while RPI is a pedestrian 8-8-0. Away from home, the Engineers are 7-6-3, while the Fighting Sioux boast a 12-4-2 mark on the road.

Sioux junior forward Jason Gregoire (undisclosed injury) has been practicing with the team and is expected to be in the lineup this afternoon.

North Dakota should be able to roll four lines and play whichever style the Engineers bring to the ice today. Goaltending is the great equalizer in playoff hockey, however, and RPI’s Allen York is capable of keeping his team in any contest.

Rensselaer Team Profile

Head Coach: (Seth Appert, 5th season at RPI, 69-97-23, .426)
This Season: 20-12-5 overall, 11-9-2 ECAC (t-4th)
Last Season: 18-17-4 overall, 10-9-3 ECAC (t-5th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-13th
National Rankings: #16/#15
Team Offense: 2.97 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.27 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.3% (36 of 197)
Penalty Kill: 84.8% (162 of 191)
Key Players: Senior F Chase Polacek (21-27-48), Senior F Tyler Helfrich (14-24-38), Freshman F Brock Higgs (9-12-21), Sophomore D Nick Bailen (8-28-36), Junior D Mike Bergin (2-16-18), Junior G Allen York (18-10-4, 2.05 GAA, .927 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 185-92-27, .653)
This Season: 30-8-3, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 2nd
National Rankings: #1/#1
Team Offense: 4.05 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.22 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.0% (48 of 209)
Penalty Kill: 85.1% (160 of 188)
Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (35-22-57), Junior F Jason Gregoire (24-17-41), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-29-42), Senior F Evan Trupp (16-21-37), Senior F/D Jake Marto (7-11-18), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-15-15), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (28-6-2, 1.88 GAA, .921 SV%, 5 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: January 13, 1990 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota completed the sweep of the visiting Engineers with a 5-3 victory after downing RPI 2-1 a night earlier. Current Sioux coaches Dave Hakstol and Dane Jackson were players on that UND team, while Cary Eades was an assistant on the coaching staff.

Most important meetings: March 16 and 17, 1984 (Troy, NY). The only previous NCAA tournament games between the schools came in March of 1984, when the Fighting Sioux swept the quarterfinal series, 5-4 and 4-2.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 7-1-0 (.875). Rensselaer’s only victory over North Dakota came on November 24, 1984, when RPI crushed the homestanding Sioux 8-2 in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

Before today’s matchup in the Midwest regional (Green Bay, WI), the Sioux and Engineers had only played in two locations: Troy, New York (1960, 1981, and 1984) and Grand Forks, ND (1984 and 1990). North Dakota is 17-3-1 (.833) since Christmas and enters the NCAA tournament on a season-long 13-game unbeaten streak (12-0-1).

The Prediction

Everything points to North Dakota in this one. UND has the experience, talent, depth, and tenacity to shut down the Engineers. The only question is how the games will be officiated, as the Fighting Sioux prefer to play fast and physical. If North Dakota gives Rensselaer five or more power plays, it could be a close one. UND 4-2.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

NCAA Tournament Predictions

Here they are, my picks for the Frozen Four from each regional:

West Regional Final: Boston College over Nebraska-Omaha

Midwest Regional Final: North Dakota over Denver

Northeast Regional Final: New Hampshire over Merrimack

East Regional Final: Yale over Minnesota-Duluth

Feel free to add your own or let me know how many I get wrong. As always, thanks for reading!

KRACH predicts the NCAA tournament

Everyone’s favorite college hockey ranking system, KRACH, has the nice feature that it can be used to assign probabilities to potential matchups.

Here’s what KRACH’s forecast for the odds for each team emerging as the winner of each round the NCAA Ice Hockey tournament:

KRACH West Game 1 Game 2
(Region
Champ)		 Game 3
(Frozen four
semifinal)		 Game 4
(National
Champ)
79.8926 1. Boston College 68.66% 42.72% 22.63% 13.81%
36.4671 4. Colorado Collage 31.34% 13.48% 4.70% 1.97%
           
55.0304 2. Michigan 57.52% 26.95% 11.90% 6.19%
40.6427 3. Nebraska Omaha 42.48% 16.85% 6.27% 2.79%
           
Midwest
100 1. North Dakota 81.39% 54.59% 34.39% 22.75%
22.8697 4. Rensselaer 18.61% 6.02% 1.73% 0.54%
           
59.5685 2. Denver 64.04% 28.07% 14.21% 7.67%
33.4557 3. Western Michigan 35.96% 11.31% 4.17% 1.66%
           
Northeast
56.1059 1. Miami (OH) 60.12% 33.87% 17.49% 7.86%
37.2172 4. New Hampshire 39.88% 18.39% 7.67% 2.72%
           
43.2361 2. Merrimack 49.70% 23.66% 10.72% 4.16%
43.7543 3. Notre Dame 50.30% 24.09% 10.98% 4.29%
           
East
64.4313 1. Yale 83.12% 48.35% 28.17% 13.59%
13.0846 4. Air Force 16.88% 3.74% 0.83% 0.14%
           
38.8342 2. Union 42.46% 18.63% 8.53% 3.10%
52.6189 3. Minnesota Duluth 57.54% 29.28% 15.60% 6.77%

NCAA Hockey Tournament Field shaping up

Other than the AHA champ, Cornell is the only possible non-top 16 autobid , so #14 in PWR will make it. #15 will if Cornell loses.

In the NCAA tournament: Yale, UND, BC, Michigan, Miami, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Merrimack, Union, Notre Dame, New Hampshire, Western Michigan

In if Cornell loses: Nebraska-Omaha, CC, RPI
In if Cornell wins: Cornell and two of those three (UNO, CC, RPI)

In: Autobid goes to Winner of Air Force/RIT

Out: Maine, Dartmouth, BU

A little more on UNO vs. CC vs. RPI (remember, which only matters if Cornell beats Yale, otherwise all three are in) —
Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Michigan or Notre Dame wins — RPI is out
Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Notre Dame ties Michigan, Miami beats Western Michigan — RPI is out
Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Notre Dame ties Michigan, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan beats Notre Dame — CC is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Notre Dame beats Michigan, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Notre Dame beats Michigan, Miami beats Western Michigan –- RPI is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan ties Notre Dame, Miami beats Western Michigan — CC is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan ties Notre Dame, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out

Team PWR Possibilitieis
Overall Win none Win all
Yale 1 100% 1 100% 1 100%
UND 2 75%
3 25%		 2 50%
3 50%		 2 100%
Boston College 2 25%
3 75%		 3 100% 2 50%
3 50%
Michigan 4 6%
5 16%
6 11%
7 23%
8 44%		 7 21%
8 79%		 4 13%
5 37%
6 25%
7 25%
Miami 4 57%
5 20%
6 18%
7 5%		 4 14%
5 40%
6 36%
7 11%		 4 100%
Denver 4 13%
5 39%
6 26%
7 22%		 5 28%
6 28%
7 44%		 4 25%
5 50%
6 25%
UMD 9 56%
10 44%		 n/a n/a
Merrimack 4 25%
5 25%
6 45%
7 5%		 6 89%
7 11%		 4 50%
5 50%
Union 7 44%
8 56%		 n/a n/a
Notre Dame 9 44%
10 6%
11 50%		 10 10%
11 90%		 9 100%
New Hampshire 12 63%
13 27%
14 10%		 n/a n/a
Western Michigan 10 50%
11 50%		 10 44%
11 56%		 10 56%
11 44%
Nebraska-Omaha 12 22%
13 38%
14 24%
15 16%		 n/a n/a
CC 13 25%
14 53%
15 22%		 n/a n/a
Dartmouth 16 44%
17 4%
18 8%
19 44%		 17 8%
18 14%
19 78%		 16 100%
Rensselaer 12 15%
13 10%
14 13%
15 63%		 n/a n/a
Boston University 16 56%
17 44%		 n/a n/a
Maine 17 52%
18 48%		 n/a n/a
AA 20 50%
21 50%		 n/a n/a

Final PWR predictions Friday morning update

The first two of the weekend’s games have been completed with one surprise outcome. Neither outcome shifted many teams’ fortunes except the teams involved.

I added Bemidji State because of their meteoric rise with last night’s win. They won’t make the NCAA tournament at large, so the Beavers’ only hope is to win it all.

CC has removed most of their downside, with an NCAA tournament appearance now seeming more likely than not. One win won’t shift their fortunes much and two earns an autobid, rendering their PWR meaningless. Remember that #16 in the PWR won’t make it at-large, because the Atlantic Hockey autobid will take the final slot. If CC falls short of winning the WCHA, they will join Nebraska-Omaha in watching Northeastern, Cornell, and Colgate closely, hoping none win their conference tournament and steal an NCAA bid from #15 or even #14 in PWR.

Duluth’s loss locked in their “worst case” scenario, which is making the tournament as a 3-seed.

AA’s loss knocked them out of contention for the NCAA tournament.

Team PWR Overall Lose all remaining Win all remaining
Possible
Final
PWR		 Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR		 Possible
Final
PWR		 Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR		 Possible
Final
PWR		 Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR
Yale 1 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 1
North Dakota 2 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 2 1 to 2
Boston College 3 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 to 3
Michigan 4 2 to 10 3 to 10 4 to 10 4 to 10 2 to 5 3 to 5
Miami 5 3 to 10

3 to 10

 5 to 10 5 to 10 3 to 4 3 to 4
Merrimack 6 4 to 10 4 to 10 6 to 10 7 to 10 4 to 5 4 to 5
Denver 7 4 to 10 4 to 9 5 to 10 5 to 9 4 to 6 4 to 6
Union 8 5 to 10

6 to 9

 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Notre Dame 9 4 to 15 4 to 14 10 to 15 10 to 14 4 to 8 4 to 8
Minnesota-Duluth 10 7 to 11 8 to 11 n/a n/a n/a n/a
New Hampshire 11 4 to 15 5 to 14 10 to 15 10 to 14 4 to 10 5 to 10
Western Michigan 12 10 to 19 10 to 19 12 to 19 13 to 19 10 to 13 10 to 13
Nebraska-Omaha 13 12 to 16 12 to 16 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Colorado College 14 10 to 16 10 to 16 12 to 16 12 to 16 10 to 15 10 to 15
Dartmouth 15 10 to 22 11 to 21 15 to 22 16 to 21 10 to 15 11 to 14
Rensselaer 16 11 to 17 12 to 16 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Boston University 17 14 to 18 15 to 17 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Maine 18 14 to 20 16 to 19 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Alaska Anchorage 20 19 to 23 20 to 23 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Bemidji State 22 17 to 28 18 to 27 22 to 28 22 to 27 17 to 20 18 to 20

Note — Michigan appears to have more upside potential if it “loses all remaining” than in the previous table. That’s actually a reflection of the possibility of a tie in the consolation game, which the previous table did not include.

WCHA Final Five Predictions

It’s a little difficult to write a preview for North Dakota’s first game when the opponent hasn’t been set yet. So rather than a full preview, I’ll give you my thoughts for each of the Thursday games and how I see the tournament shaking out:

Quarterfinal #1: #4 Minnesota-Duluth (22-9-6) vs. #10 Bemidji State (14-17-5)

These two teams haven’t played since late October in Bemidji, when the Bulldogs took three points from the homestanding Beavers. Bemidji is getting great goaltending and UMD is cooling off a bit (4-4-2 in their last ten games), but not that much. BSU doesn’t have an answer for the FCC line (Fontaine, Connolly, and Connolly), and Minnesota-Duluth will prevail, 4-2.

Quarterfinal #2: #6 Colorado College (21-17-3) vs. #8 Alaska-Anchorage (16-17-3)

The Seawolves took three of four games from the Tigers in the regular season, and UAA has won five straight coming in to the Final Five. CC has not swept a team since January 14th-15th (Alabama Huntsville). Colorado College has only won one game at the Final Five since 2003, and they’ll go home early again this year. Alaska-Anchorage in a mild upset, 3-2.

Semifinal #1: #4 Minnesota-Duluth (22-9-6) vs. #2 Denver (23-10-5)

These two teams are so close, but Duluth proved in 2009 that they can win multiple games on Final Five weekend and I have the sense that the Bulldogs will find the championship game yet again. Before the playoffs started, the Pioneers sputtered to the finish line, splitting their last five series in league play (including home losses against St. Cloud State and Michigan Tech). This one could go to overtime, with a Connolly netting the game winner. Minnesota-Duluth 5-4 (OT).

Semifinal #2: #1 North Dakota (28-8-3) vs. #8 Alaska-Anchorage (16-17-3)

We saw this matchup twice last month, and there’s no reason to believe Anchorage will muster more than one goal against the Fighting Sioux this time around. UND will need to wear white all weekend (rather than their “business suit” blacks), but it won’t matter here. North Dakota 4-1.

Championship Game: #1 North Dakota (28-8-3) vs. #4 Minnesota-Duluth (22-9-6)

I would pay to watch these two teams play a seven game series. It’s possible that Duluth would be playing for a #1 seed in the national tournament, and that extra motivation could put them over the top. No matter which way this game goes, I think the Fighting Sioux and Bulldogs will meet somewhere in the NCAAs. I’ll give this round to UMD. Minnesota-Duluth 4-3.

News and Notes:

With two victories this weekend, North Dakota would reach the 30 victory mark for the first time under head coach Dave Hakstol.

According to Jim Dahl’s excellent analysis (found here), North Dakota, Denver, and Duluth are all assured of a spot in the NCAA tournament. Colorado College, Alaska-Anchorage, and Bemidji State all need help outside their control, or can secure a bid in the NCAA’s by winning the Final Five this weekend.

On the outside looking in: Nebraska-Omaha is the only WCHA team sitting at home this weekend that can still make the NCAA tournament. The Mavericks can finish anywhere from 12th to 16th in the final Pairwise rankings. The other five teams in the conference (Minnesota, Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, MSU-Mankato, and Michigan Tech) have played their last game for 2010-11.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.