NCAA hockey tournament selection / PWR possibilities

With only 19 games to go before the NCAA men’s ice hockey tournament selection, the You are the committee calculators are up and running.

I ran through the 1,179,648 remaining possible outcomes, so you don’t have to. The table below shows the percentage outcomes in which each team ends the season with each rank.

Note that this table does not weight the likelihood of outcomes as I usually do, rather this analysis treats all outcomes as equally likely. I’ll followup later with additional analysis that includes some probabilities, games to watch, and more in-depth analysis of UND’s potential scenarios. As always, drop me any requests if there are other questions you’d like answered.

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall Win none Win all
Boston College 1 79.8%
2 19.8%
3 0.4%
1 81.0%
2 19.0%
1 81.7%
2 18.3%
Michigan 1 0.2%
2 66.8%
3 27.1%
4 4.6%
5 1.1%
6 0.1%
2 51.8%
3 33.3%
4 11.1%
5 3.4%
6 0.4%
2 75.0%
3 25.0%
Miami 1 0.3%
2 2.7%
3 20.2%
4 15.3%
5 12.8%
6 12.6%
7 11.0%
8 9.5%
9 7.2%
10 5.4%
11 2.5%
12 0.5%
13 0.1%
14 0.0%
4 0.0%
5 1.0%
6 8.0%
7 19.4%
8 25.1%
9 21.1%
10 16.3%
11 7.4%
12 1.5%
13 0.2%
14 0.0%
1 1.3%
2 10.7%
3 61.2%
4 24.2%
5 2.5%
6 0.2%
UMD 1 19.7%
2 5.5%
3 5.0%
4 11.6%
5 16.4%
6 17.1%
7 15.1%
8 7.6%
9 1.7%
10 0.2%
11 0.0%
3 1.2%
4 5.9%
5 16.3%
6 28.3%
7 29.2%
8 15.1%
9 3.5%
10 0.4%
11 0.1%
1 78.7%
2 19.8%
3 0.3%
4 1.2%
Ferris State 3 7.7%
4 21.0%
5 30.6%
6 26.5%
7 11.5%
8 2.7%
9 0.2%
10 0.0%
n/a n/a
Boston University 2 2.9%
3 14.9%
4 12.1%
5 8.5%
6 9.9%
7 13.6%
8 15.9%
9 12.9%
10 6.7%
11 2.2%
12 0.4%
13 0.0%
4 0.3%
5 1.9%
6 7.2%
7 18.9%
8 28.1%
9 24.9%
10 13.3%
11 4.5%
12 0.9%
13 0.1%
2 11.6%
3 52.3%
4 29.4%
5 6.0%
6 0.7%
7 0.1%
UMN 2 0.4%
3 9.7%
4 10.8%
5 7.9%
6 8.5%
7 13.6%
8 19.8%
9 19.0%
10 8.4%
11 1.7%
12 0.1%
13 0.0%
4 0.0%
5 0.2%
6 3.0%
7 13.0%
8 29.3%
9 34.1%
10 16.6%
11 3.5%
12 0.2%
13 0.0%
2 1.5%
3 37.4%
4 37.2%
5 17.6%
6 5.1%
7 1.1%
8 0.1%
Maine 3 1.1%
4 6.4%
5 8.7%
6 6.7%
7 2.3%
8 2.6%
9 7.5%
10 13.4%
11 21.8%
12 20.2%
13 8.3%
14 1.1%
10 5.7%
11 36.0%
12 39.5%
13 16.6%
14 2.2%
3 4.5%
4 25.5%
5 34.6%
6 26.8%
7 8.3%
8 0.3%
9 0.0%
UND 2 0.2%
3 5.1%
4 5.3%
5 2.0%
6 2.1%
7 3.6%
8 6.4%
9 14.6%
10 22.9%
11 19.0%
12 14.2%
13 4.2%
14 0.3%
7 0.0%
8 0.1%
9 7.4%
10 25.6%
11 30.2%
12 27.6%
13 8.5%
14 0.6%
2 1.9%
3 41.1%
4 42.2%
5 13.4%
6 1.3%
7 0.0%
Mass.-Lowell 6 1.1%
7 8.8%
8 17.7%
9 19.6%
10 21.6%
11 20.6%
12 8.9%
13 1.5%
14 0.0%
n/a n/a
Michigan State 13 11.7%
14 41.0%
15 37.1%
16 6.6%
17 3.6%
18 0.1%
n/a n/a
Western Michigan 7 0.0%
8 0.0%
9 0.2%
10 1.1%
11 3.1%
12 7.1%
13 13.0%
14 26.6%
15 21.2%
16 19.9%
17 6.4%
18 1.1%
13 0.9%
14 6.6%
15 14.3%
16 55.7%
17 19.2%
18 3.4%
7 0.1%
8 0.1%
9 1.0%
10 4.6%
11 12.5%
12 27.8%
13 32.9%
14 21.1%
Denver 3 1.2%
4 2.8%
5 4.0%
6 3.2%
7 1.3%
8 0.8%
9 2.5%
10 7.3%
11 16.8%
12 29.7%
13 22.8%
14 7.6%
10 1.3%
11 12.1%
12 37.3%
13 36.0%
14 13.4%
3 9.5%
4 22.4%
5 31.8%
6 25.4%
7 9.8%
8 1.1%
9 0.0%
Northern Michigan 13 1.3%
14 10.2%
15 32.9%
16 51.8%
17 3.8%
n/a n/a
Notre Dame 17 4.4%
18 64.6%
19 28.4%
20 2.6%
n/a n/a
Union 2 1.7%
3 7.6%
4 9.9%
5 6.1%
6 5.8%
7 9.0%
8 11.9%
9 13.7%
10 11.1%
11 6.1%
12 7.8%
13 8.2%
14 1.1%
15 0.0%
6 0.0%
7 0.5%
8 4.1%
9 12.3%
10 17.0%
11 14.9%
12 23.2%
13 24.7%
14 3.2%
15 0.1%
2 6.7%
3 30.1%
4 38.3%
5 18.6%
6 5.0%
7 1.1%
8 0.1%
Merrimack 14 0.0%
15 0.8%
16 9.1%
17 64.1%
18 23.0%
19 3.1%
20 0.0%
n/a n/a
Ohio State 19 19.1%
20 48.9%
21 28.7%
22 3.2%
23 0.2%
n/a n/a
Lake Superior 19 0.4%
20 9.2%
21 36.4%
22 40.6%
23 11.6%
24 1.6%
25 0.2%
26 0.0%
n/a n/a
SCSU 13 0.3%
14 1.5%
15 3.7%
16 3.7%
17 3.7%
18 4.6%
19 15.8%
20 13.5%
21 3.4%
22 7.1%
23 22.1%
24 14.6%
25 5.4%
26 0.6%
20 0.0%
21 0.4%
22 14.2%
23 44.3%
24 29.3%
25 10.7%
26 1.2%
13 2.1%
14 12.0%
15 29.5%
16 27.8%
17 25.8%
18 2.9%
Cornell 4 0.3%
5 1.9%
6 6.5%
7 10.2%
8 5.1%
9 1.0%
10 1.7%
11 6.0%
12 11.0%
13 28.6%
14 10.6%
15 4.3%
16 8.9%
17 3.8%
18 0.3%
11 0.0%
12 0.9%
13 23.5%
14 24.1%
15 12.9%
16 26.6%
17 11.3%
18 0.9%
4 1.2%
5 7.5%
6 26.0%
7 40.7%
8 20.2%
9 3.9%
10 0.4%
11 0.0%
CC 19 0.6%
20 5.4%
21 17.0%
22 34.9%
23 31.1%
24 10.3%
25 0.7%
n/a n/a
Northeastern 24 0.0%
25 0.1%
26 3.6%
27 23.8%
28 51.4%
29 19.2%
30 1.8%
n/a n/a
UW 22 0.3%
23 3.8%
24 26.2%
25 42.7%
26 24.3%
27 2.7%
28 0.1%
n/a n/a
Bemidji State 28 9.3%
29 40.3%
30 37.5%
31 11.1%
32 1.7%
33 0.1%
n/a n/a
New Hampshire 30 0.3%
31 18.8%
32 19.4%
33 5.6%
34 0.3%
Non-TUC 55.5%
n/a n/a
Massachusetts Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Providence 28 0.5%
29 2.9%
30 6.1%
31 9.4%
32 5.0%
33 1.1%
Non-TUC 75.0%
Non-TUC 100.0% 28 1.9%
29 11.6%
30 24.5%
31 37.5%
32 19.9%
33 4.6%
MTech 22 0.0%
23 0.3%
24 1.7%
25 4.3%
26 5.1%
27 1.2%
28 0.0%
29 1.0%
30 4.2%
31 6.1%
32 1.2%
33 0.0%
Non-TUC 75.0%
Non-TUC 100.0% 22 0.0%
23 2.2%
24 13.6%
25 34.1%
26 40.7%
27 9.3%
Harvard 15 0.0%
16 0.1%
17 10.2%
18 3.0%
19 16.5%
20 13.9%
21 11.7%
22 4.9%
23 7.4%
24 7.0%
25 8.6%
26 7.5%
27 8.0%
28 1.1%
20 0.0%
21 0.0%
22 0.8%
23 9.4%
24 18.4%
25 21.6%
26 22.5%
27 24.0%
28 3.2%
15 0.1%
16 0.6%
17 40.6%
18 12.0%
19 41.6%
20 5.1%
Alaska Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Colgate 17 0.2%
18 3.3%
19 16.0%
20 5.5%
21 0.1%
22 1.3%
23 10.1%
24 23.5%
25 23.3%
26 13.3%
27 2.7%
28 0.8%
24 8.3%
25 41.9%
26 39.4%
27 8.1%
28 2.3%
17 0.6%
18 13.2%
19 64.1%
20 22.1%
Bowling Green Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Nebraska-Omaha Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Quinnipiac 25 5.7%
26 35.8%
27 45.6%
28 10.8%
29 2.1%
n/a n/a
Yale Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
St. Lawrence Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Niagara 22 1.2%
23 3.7%
24 6.1%
25 2.9%
26 2.6%
27 6.0%
28 13.6%
29 14.6%
30 18.5%
31 19.5%
32 9.8%
33 1.5%
34 0.1%
28 3.2%
29 11.1%
30 27.4%
31 35.7%
32 19.6%
33 3.0%
34 0.1%
22 4.9%
23 14.6%
24 24.2%
25 11.4%
26 10.0%
27 16.2%
28 10.7%
29 7.0%
30 0.4%
31 0.5%
Mankato Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Air Force 19 0.0%
20 0.7%
21 2.5%
22 5.7%
23 8.8%
24 6.1%
25 1.1%
26 1.4%
27 2.0%
28 11.4%
29 19.9%
30 26.0%
31 11.5%
32 2.6%
33 0.2%
26 0.0%
27 0.1%
28 1.2%
29 20.7%
30 49.5%
31 23.1%
32 5.2%
33 0.3%
19 0.1%
20 2.9%
21 10.0%
22 22.7%
23 35.2%
24 24.6%
25 4.5%
Clarkson Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Dartmouth Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
RIT 20 0.2%
21 0.2%
22 0.9%
23 1.0%
24 2.9%
25 5.1%
26 5.8%
27 8.0%
28 1.0%
29 0.1%
30 5.6%
31 10.2%
32 7.0%
33 2.0%
34 0.1%
Non-TUC 50.0%
Non-TUC 100.0% 20 0.7%
21 0.9%
22 3.4%
23 3.9%
24 11.5%
25 20.3%
26 23.2%
27 32.0%
28 4.0%
AA Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Princeton Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Rensselaer Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Holy Cross Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Vermont Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Brown Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Robert Morris Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Bentley Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Connecticut Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Alabama-Huntsville Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
American Int’l Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Army Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Sacred Heart Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a

This is the last time I’ll post the complete table, from now on I’ll just focus on those teams that can still finish in the top 16.

Resources

  • siouxgrad

    Thanks Jim.
     
    Do you know what the scenarios are for UND finishing 13 or 14?Most are posting that they can only get UND as low as 12.

  • siouxgrad

    Sorry, missed the part that you will add that later.

    A question though…Is it possible for the WCHA to get 5 teams into the tourney?(UND,UMD,DU,MN,Tech or St Cloud (with either being the winner of the Final 5)

  • siouxgrad

    OK, looks possible if Tech or St Cloud win the Final 5.

    I guess I should have asked what is the probability of the WCHA getting 5 teams into the tourney; and also if Tech or St Cloud win the Final 5 what is the probability that the Sioux end up on the outside looking in.

  • Larry Boatman

    Forwarded the link to your page over to Jayson Moy at USCHO because he wrote ”
    I don’t have an algorithm, or computer program to look at it (though someone should write one for me)”

    Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2012/03/12/what-i-believe/#ixzz1owY70SVg

  • Guest

    Hey Jim, 
    Could you please give me an analysis for what will make or break a tournament spot for NMU?

  • Anonymous

     I expected this question, it’s already on my list 🙂  I hope to finish a post on details for UND first thing tomorrow, and then will run the NMU scenarios.

  • John Connolly16

    NMU needs Western Michigan to lose both games and needs either Cornell or Union to win ECAC. NMU would finish tied with Michigan State for 14th but would ultimately be #15. AHA winner gets 16th spot. Good luck to the ‘Cats… hopefully Walt has been working them since last weekend.

  • Anonymous