Category: Men’s Hockey

For the second season in a row, North Dakota plays an unfamiliar opponent on opening weekend.  After losing to Massachusetts 3-2 at the Icebreaker Invitational (Boston, MA) last year, the Fighting Sioux are hoping for better results against the Warriors of Merrimack (North Andover, MA).

The Warriors do not return a 10-goal scorer this season (North Dakota returns three) and will struggle to score this year, at least until highly-touted recruit Stephane Da Costa (fourth in USHL scoring in 2008-09) makes it through the NCAA Clearinghouse and is allowed to play.

Merrimack’s lone NCAA Division I tournament appearance came at the end of the 1987-1988 season.  The Warriors won a Division II hockey championship in 1978.

Merrimack Team Profile
Head Coach: Mark Dennehy (5th season at Merrimack, 30-89-17, .283)
National Ranking: NR
This Season: 0-0-0, 0-0-0 Hockey East
Last Season: 9-21-4, 5-19-3 Hockey East (9th)
Key Returning Players (last season‘s statistics): Junior F Chris Barton (9-14-23), Sophomore F Jesse Todd (7-16-23), Junior F Joe Cucci (7-11-18), Sophomore D Karl Stollery (5-11-16), Sophomore G Joe Cannata (7-11-4, 2.35 GAA, .918 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 130-71-19, .634)
National Ranking: #6
This Season: 0-0-0, 0-0-0 WCHA
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Key Returning Players (last season‘s statistics): Senior F Chris VandeVelde (18-17-35), Sophomore F Jason Gregoire (12-17-29), Sophomore F Brett Hextall (12-14-26), Senior D Chay Genoway (3-29-32), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (24-12-4, 2.56 GAA, .906 SV%, 1 SO)

Game News and Notes

Friday’s contest will mark the first ever meeting between these two teams. Merrimack sophomore goaltender Joe Cannata and North Dakota freshman forward Danny Kristo were teammates on the U.S. Under-18 team.  Before the start of the series, North Dakota will unveil their 2008-09 WCHA Championship banner, the 14th conference championship in the history of the program.

The Prediction

Merrimack lost 14 of 18 one-goal games last season, but this weekend’s games won’t be that close.  All four forward lines should figure in the scoring for the Sioux, and that spells trouble for the Warriors.   UND 4-1, 6-2

For the third year in a row, close to a dozen WCHA players gave up their remaining eligibility for pro contracts or off-field issues. Headlining this list of early departures are Denver’s Tyler Bozak, Wisconsin’s Jamie McBain, Colorado College’s Richard Bachman, Minnesota’s Ryan Stoa, and Minnesota-Duluth’s Alex Stalock.

Before I reveal my first three predictions for this year, let’s take a look at last season….

WCHA 2008-09 Final Standings

Team	Record	Points
North Dakota	17-7-4	38
Denver	16-8-4	36
Wisconsin	14-11-3	31
Colorado College	12-9-7	31
Minnesota	12-11-5	29
St. Cloud	13-13-2	28
Minnesota-Duluth	10-11-7	27
MSU-Mankato	11-13-4	26
Alaska-Anchorage	9-14-5	23
Michigan Tech	2-19-7	11

And here are three teams that I believe will certainly be on the road for the first round of the WCHA playoffs this season….

#10 Michigan Tech University Huskies
Last year’s record: 6-25-7 overall, 2-19-7 WCHA (10th)
Last year’s WCHA statistics: 1.68 goals scored/game (10th), 3.36 goals allowed/game (10th)
Key returning players: Junior F Jordan Baker (16-11-27), Sophomore F Brett Olson (10-13-23), Senior D Drew Dobson (5-14-19), Senior F Malcolm Gwilliam (2-5-7 in nine games)
Early departures: None
Key graduation losses: F Alex Gagne (5-8-13), D Geoff Kinrade (3-13-16), G Rob Nolan (3.05 GAA, .894 SV%)
The question marks: Can Michigan Tech climb out of the cellar? Can sophomore goaltender Josh Robinson (3.09 GAA, .889 SV%) handle the majority of the minutes in net after appearing in 20 games last season?
The bottom line: It’s going to be rough for the Huskies again this year.  There is no real reason for optimism and no real reason to expect more than four conference victories.

#9 University of Alaska-Anchorage Seawolves
Last year’s record: 14-17-5 overall, 9-14-5 WCHA (9th)
Last year’s statistics: 2.46 goals scored/game (9th), 3.32 goals allowed/game (9th)
Key returning players: Senior F Kevin Clark (13-18-31), Junior F Tommy Grant (15-10-25), Senior F Josh Lunden (14-6-20), Senior D Trevor Hunt (4-8-12), Junior G Bryce Christianson (2.60 GAA, .893 SV%)
Early departure: F Paul Crowder (14-19-33)
Key graduation loss: D Mat Robinson (3-12-15)
The question marks: Will the Seawolves build on the momentum from the end of last season (sweeps over Alaska and Duluth, and two one-goal losses at Denver in the first round of the WCHA playoffs)?  Will UAA continue to have road success this year (7-9-1 last season)?
The bottom line: This is a team that could go either way.  The Seawolves could be fighting for home ice or fighting to stay out of the cellar.  I might have them too low here, but I’m not sure where the goals are going to come from.

#8 Colorado College Tigers
Last year’s record: 16-12-10 overall, 12-9-7 WCHA (4th)
Last year’s statistics: 2.82 goals scored/game (7th), 2.93 goals allowed/game (6th)
Key returning players: Senior F Bill Sweatt (12-11-23), Junior F Stephen Schultz (10-4-14), Senior F Mike Testwuide (4-5-9), Sophomore D Gabe Guentzell (3-14-17)
Early departures: D Brian Connelly (3-24-27), G Richard Bachman (2.63 GAA, .914 SV%)
Key graduation losses: C Chad Rau (18-19-37), F Eric Walsky (12-24-36)
The question marks: There are so many areas of concern for this squad: goaltending (Tyler O‘Brien has appeared in only three games over two seasons), scoring (both even strength and on the power play), experience (15 underclassmen on the roster), and coaching (assistant coach Mike Guentzel departed Colorado Springs to become the head coach of the Des Moines Buccaneers of the USHL).
The bottom line:  After winning 28 games in 07-08, the Tigers won only 16 games last year and may not notch 10 victories this season.  CC has an outside shot at home ice, although head coach Scott Owens has his work cut out for him.

Check back soon for part two of my WCHA season preview, in which I predict which teams will finish in 4th-7th place and battle it out for home ice in the playoffs. Check back later for part three, detailing the top three teams in the conference. As always, I welcome your questions and comments.

INDIANAPOLIS — The NCAA Ice Hockey Rules Committee has issued a statement which says, in part, that:

“Effective immediately, all NCAA men’s ice hockey tournament games which are tied at the conclusion of a five-minute sudden death overtime period will be decided by a shootout. This rule change will affect the remaining three games of the 2009 tournament.”

Attempts to reach Ty Halpin, NCAA Associate Director for Playing Rules Administration, were unsuccessful.

It is believed that this decision comes in the wake of last weekend’s programming debacle on ESPN2, when a men’s lacrosse match between Virginia and Maryland went into seven overtimes, causing many college hockey fans to miss the first period of the Northeast Regional semifinal between New Hampshire and North Dakota. There seems to be a clear desire from the ESPN family of networks to complete the remaining tournament games in the 2 hour and 30 minute time frame allotted.

Three of the previous twelve 2009 NCAA men’s ice hockey tournament games have gone into overtime, although the aforementioned UNH/UND game would not have been affected by this rule change. The Wildcats scored the game-winner 45 seconds into the first overtime period.

Elsewhere in the tournament, Minnesota-Duluth defeated Princeton on a power play goal more than 13 minutes into overtime, and Vermont toppled Air Force after more than 34 minutes of overtime to advance to the Frozen Four (Washington, DC). Both of those games would have gone to a shootout under this rule change.

The specifics of the shootout rules for the Frozen Four will be announced at a press conference scheduled for 4:01 p.m. EST on ESPNEWS.

Here’s a closer look at the four teams in the NCAA Northeast Regional at the Verizon Wireless Arena (Manchester, New Hampshire):

Game 1: (2) North Dakota vs. (3) New Hampshire (Saturday, March 28, 2:00 p.m. ET)

North Dakota Team Profile

National Rankings: #7/#7
PairWise Ranking: #8
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 17th of 58 teams
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 130-70-19, .637)
This Season: 24-14-4 Overall, 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.36 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.67 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.5% (48 of 275)
Penalty Kill: 84.4% (184 of 218)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (19-19-38), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (16-17-33), Freshman F Jason Gregoire (11-16-27), Freshman F Brett Hextall (12-13-25), Senior D Brad Miller (6-29-35), Junior D Chay Genoway (3-29-32), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (24-11-4, 2.47 GAA, .908 SV%, 1 SO)
NCAA Championships: 7 (most recent, 2000)
NCAA Appearance: 24th (most recent, 2008)

New Hampshire Team Profile

National Rankings: #12/#12
PairWise Ranking: #10
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 10th of 58 teams
Head Coach: Dick Umile (19th season at UNH, 443-219-71, .653)
This Season: 19-12-5 Overall, 15-8-4 Hockey East (3rd)
Team Offense: 3.03 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.92 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 11.5% (22 of 191)
Penalty Kill: 83.1% (152 of 183)
Last Season: 25-10-3 Overall (NCAA West Regional Semifinalist), 19-5-3 Hockey East (1st)
Key Players: Sophomore F James van Riemsdyk (17-22-39), Sophomore F Mike Sislo (18-10-28), Junior F Peter LeBlanc (12-15-27), Junior F Bobby Butler (8-19-27), Senior D Kevin Kapstad (2-22-24), Junior G Brian Foster (18-10-4, 2.63 GAA, .910 SV%, 3 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 19th (most recent, 2008)

What to watch for: Can North Dakota get the early start (UND is 14-1-2 when leading after one period of play)? Will the Wildcats be able to exploit North Dakota’s suddenly soft penalty kill? Is it better to miss out on conference championship weekend (as New Hampshire did) or drop two games in the postseason tournament (a la North Dakota)? Is it possible for Dave Hakstol to lead UND to its fifth consecutive Frozen Four?

Who will win: No current New Hampshire player has won an NCAA playoff game, while North Dakota’s senior class has advanced to three consecutive Frozen Fours. This game will be tight, but on the smaller rink, the Sioux have the edge. UND 3-2.

Game 2: (1) Boston University vs. (4) Ohio State (Saturday, March 28, 6:30 p.m. ET)

Boston University Team Profile

National Rankings: #1/#1
PairWise Ranking: #1
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 12th of 58 teams
Head Coach: Jack Parker (36th season at BU, 811-413-101, .650)
This Season: 31-6-4 Overall, 18-5-4 Hockey East (1st)
Team Offense: 3.85 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.95 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.8% (52 of 238)
Penalty Kill: 87.3% (214 of 245)
Last Season: 19-17-4 Overall, 15-9-3 Hockey East (2nd)
Key Players: Sophomore F Colin Wilson (15-35-50), Sophomore F Nick Bonino (16-28-44), Senior F Chris Higgins (12-28-40), Senior F Brandon Yip (19-20-39), Senior D Matt Gilroy (8-24-32), Sophomore D Colby Cohen (7-21-28), Freshman G Kieran Millan (25-2-3, 1.84 GAA, .923 SV%, 3 SO)
NCAA Championships: 4 (most recent, 1995)
NCAA Appearance: 31st (most recent, 2007)

Ohio State Team Profile

National Rankings: #14/-
PairWise Ranking: #15
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 27th of 58 teams
Head Coach: John Markell (15th season at OSU, 265-248-50, .515)
This Season: 23-14-4 Overall, 13-11-4-3 CCHA (5th)
Team Offense: 3.41 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.71 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 13.9% (26 of 187)
Penalty Kill: 81.8% (175 of 214)
Last Season: 12-25-4 Overall, 7-18-3 CCHA (12th)
Key Players: Senior F Corey Elkins (18-22-40), Sophomore F John Albert (11-28-39), Sophomore F Peter Boyd (13-18-31), Sophomore F Hunter Bishop (13-16-29), Sophomore D Shane Sims (7-17-24), Sophomore G Dustin Carlson (21-11-3, 2.40 GAA, .920 SV%, 4 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 6th (most recent, 2005)

What to watch for: Will BU start a run to the national championship and claim its sixth title of the season (after winning the IceBreaker, Denver Cup, Beanpot, Hockey East regular season, and Hockey East playoff championship)? Can Ohio State shut down the Terriers’ vaunted power play (21.8%)? Is it possible for the Wildcat and Sioux faithful in attendance get behind the Buckeyes and will them to the upset?

Who will win: Boston University has too much across the board for Ohio State, but we could have said the same about Michigan vs. Air Force or Denver vs. Miami (OH). Anything can happen, but I don’t see the Terriers dropping their opening game. BU 4-1.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back after the regional semifinal games for more previews, predictions, analysis, and reaction from the NCAA tournament.

Here’s a quick peek at what I see happening in the West, Midwest, and East regionals…

West Regional:

#1 Denver over #4 Miami (OH)
#2 Minnesota-Duluth over #3 Princeton

#2 Minnesota-Duluth over #1 Denver

Midwest Regional:

#2 Northeastern over #3 Cornell
#4 Bemidji State over #1 Notre Dame

#2 Northeastern over #4 Bemidji State

East Regional:

#1 Michigan over #4 Air Force
#3 Vermont over #2 Yale

#1 Michigan over #3 Vermont

So three of my four Frozen Four teams are Michigan, Northeastern, and Minnesota-Duluth. Check back later tonight for a complete look at the Northeast Regional, which includes Boston University, North Dakota, New Hampshire, and Ohio State.

Here’s what I get. Errors are mine, not KRACH’s 😉

KRACH predictions of the 2009 NCAA tournament

West    Game 1    Game 2 (Region Champ)    Game 3 (Frozen four semifinal)    Game 4 (National Champ)
1. Denver    62.08%    37.17%    15.72%    7.19%
4. Miami    37.92%    18.14%    5.72%    1.98%

2. Minn. Duluth    61.32%    30.04%    11.16%    4.52%
3. Princeton    38.68%    14.65%    4.06%    1.24%

Midwest
1. Notre Dame    90.22%    62.64%    44.31%    26.90%
4. Bemidji St    9.78%    2.00%    0.43%    0.07%

2. Northeastern    65.10%    25.83%    14.65%    6.76%
3. Cornell    34.90%    9.52%    3.95%    1.27%

Northeast
1. Boston U    78.06%    57.04%    39.36%    24.45%
4. Ohio St    21.94%    9.49%    3.72%    1.22%

2. North Dakota    51.04%    17.30%    7.98%    3.13%
3. New Hampshire    48.96%    16.17%    7.30%    2.80%

East
1. Michigan    80.52%    48.55%    23.06%    11.32%
4. Air Force    19.48%    5.24%    1.01%    0.20%

2. Yale    45.91%    20.27%    7.30%    2.73%
3. Vermont    54.09%    25.93%    10.28%    4.22%

I’ll post the spreads between these predictions and the SiouxSports community’s picks (a.k.a. the homer bias) later.

This is my yearly attempt to predict the ten finalists for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award. In the past, my results have been mixed, from a high of seven to a low of five.

As you may remember, my top ten is weighted toward players on teams still alive for the national tournament, although there are a couple of picks outside of the NCAA field.

Skaters (in alphabetical order):

Ryan Duncan, senior forward, North Dakota (18-19-37)

Jacques Lamoureux, junior forward, Air Force (31-20-51)

Bryan Leitch, senior forward, Quinnipiac (12-47-59)

Aaron Palushaj, sophomore forward, Michigan (12-36-48)

Ryan Stoa, junior forward, Minnesota (24-22-46)

Colin Wilson, sophomore forward, Boston University (14-35-49)

Goaltenders (in alphabetical order):

Zane Kalemba, junior, Princeton (22-8-0, 1.69 GAA, .936 SV%, 2 SO)

Jordan Pearce, senior, Notre Dame (28-5-3, 1.62 GAA, .934 SV%, 8 SO)

Ben Scrivens, junior, Cornell (20-8-4, 1.68 GAA, .936 SV%, 7 SO)

Brad Thiessen, junior, Northeastern (25-10-4, 2.07 GAA, .932 SV%, 3 SO)

Duncan is admittedly a homer pick (and Sioux defenseman Chay Genoway had the early Hobey buzz), but no one is hotter than Duncan (22 points over his last 18 games) and UND would not be a top 5 team without their senior captain.

None of the defensemen this year jumped out at me, although Wisconsin’s McBain could crack the top ten.

Feel free to argue, debate, and add your own opinions. Check back after the announcement on Thursday evening to see how I did.

I hacked on the simulator last night and got it supporting conditional games (e.g. winner of this game plays winner of that) and I’m glad I did — the results were pretty interesting.

Possibilities

Decked out in blacks for the Final Five, here’s the distribution of possible outcomes of the Final Five.

NOTE — unlike during the regular season, outcomes are not weighted as to their likelihood. So, instead of reading the chart “UND has a 35% chance of finishing #5 if games go as predicted by KRACH”, it should be read “35% of possible Final Five outcomes results in UND finishing #5”.

What to cheer for

A game-by-game cheering guide can be found in the “UND finishes #3” scenario in the Extreme outcomes section below. However, not all games are equally important. Here’s what seemed to matter in the simulations.

These are the minimum individual events required for a #3 finish (other things have to happen, too, but they involve combinations of outcomes)

• Notre Dame wins 1
• Alaska wins 1
• Michigan can’t win any
• Yale can’t win 2
• St. Lawrence wins 1
• UW wins 1
• Northern Michigan wins 1

Interesting tidbit — UND can lose a game and still be #4. It looks like most of those scenarios involve UND losing to UW in the title game, but there are a few others floating around out there.

Extreme outcomes

As many have speculated, UND does seem to be a lock for the tourney. Though likely outcomes seem to range from #4 to #10 in the pairwise rankings, possible finishes range from #3 to #13 (a broader range than I’ve seen speculated anywhere else). The fun thing about CHN’s You Are the Committee being out now is that you no longer have to take my word for it, I can give you the scenarios, proving that the simulator does something useful 🙂

UND finishes #3

UND finishes #3 in about .2% of possible outcomes. Given that there are about half a million possible outcomes of the remaining 19 games, that’s about 1000 different ways UND could finish #3. Here’s one of them.

Northeastern > Mass.-Lowell
Boston University > Boston College
Boston University > Northeastern

Cornell > Princeton
St. Lawrence > Yale
St. Lawrence > Cornell
Princeton > Yale

Mercyhurst > RIT
Bentley > Air Force
Bentley > Mercyhurst

Alaska > Michigan
Notre Dame > Northern Michigan
Alaska > Notre Dame
Northern Michigan > Michigan

UMD > UMN
UW > Denver
UND > UMD
UND > UW
UMD > Denver

UND finishes #13

UND finishes #13 in about .005% of possible outcomes. If my game count above was right, that’s about 25 different ways UND could finish #13. Here’s one of them.

Northeastern > Mass.-Lowell
Boston College > Boston University
Boston College > Northeastern

Princeton > Cornell
St. Lawrence > Yale
Yale > Cornell
Princeton > St. Lawrence

RIT > Mercyhurst
Air Force > Bentley
RIT > Air Force

Michigan > Alaska
Northern Michigan > Notre Dame
Northern Michigan > Michigan
Notre Dame > Alaska

UMN > UMD
Denver > UW
UMN > UND
UMN > Denver
UW > UND

What now?

• PWR thread remains hopping with a lot of people who are probably smarter than I am — head over there to discuss, pontificate, and learn
• John Whelan’s You Are The Committee (hosted at CHN) lets you test my scenarios and your own