Category: Men’s Hockey

When I started preparing this, I thought it might be the last of the season. As the number of remaining games becomes small enough, the You Are The Committee tools on USCHO and CHN start to become useful ways for you to explore the potential PWR outcomes yourself.

However, it occurs to me that the tricky thing about those tools has always been trying to figure out the impact of games not involving the team you’re studying, so I’ll probably run a few more simulations between now and selection day and post any interesting results.

This weekend’s outlook

Both the split and win curves are very stretched out this week. For either of those outcomes, UND’s fate would rest in the hands of other teams significantly more than usual.

UND loses both: 79% chance of #13-14, 98% chance of #12-15
UND splits: 50% chance of #10-11, 85% chance of #9-12 (possible outcomes range from #4-#13)
UND sweeps: 69% chance of #7-9, 92% chance of #6-10 (possible outcomes range from #3-#11)

UND’s likely PWR is given as a set of probabilities and ranges because other games’ outcomes will affect UND’s PWR. The “Who else to cheer for this weekend” section below lists, in order, the games that have the biggest impact on where UND will fall in the given ranges.

Who else to cheer for this weekend

As hinted at by nodakvindy on the forum when discussing Yale v. Princeton last week, these are the non-Sioux games that will make the biggest contributions to UND’s PWR this week.

They are focused solely on the short-term — what will maximize UND’s PWR as of next Monday (Mar 2).  Some outcomes that bump UND’s PWR upward in the short run, e.g. SCSU over Denver, may actually prove undesirable in the long-run.

Team to cheer for / how much their outcome will affect UND’s PWR this week:

AA vs Alaska (1.57 w/sweep, 1.03 w/1 win)
Princeton to lose vs Harvard/Dartmouth (1.13 lose both, .70 lose one)
SCSU vs. Denver(1.08 w/sweep, .25 w/1 win)
Ohio St vs Miami (.79 w/sweep, .58 w/1 win)
Merrimack vs UNH (.77 w/sweep, .54 w/1 win)
Maine vs Vermont (.79 w/sweep, .21 w/1 win)
UMN vs UMD (.69 w/sweep, .47 w/1 win)
Mich St vs Notre Dame (.65 w/sweep, .05 w/1 win)
Mass. Lowell vs Northeastern (.57 w/sweep, .18 w/1 win)

Season outlook

At least splitting the remaining four games is required to be in the relatively safe part of PWR. As was noted by farce poobah in the forum, “Given the likelihood that CCHA, Hockey East, and ECAC also may have upset winners, I think you have to be inside #10 to really be comfortable.”

Chat about this

There’s a good thread going on the forum discussing these forecasts. There are a lot of smart people who have gone into a lot more depth than I can in these articles, so stop by, read, chat, and ask questions.

(PWR) PairWise Rankings – 2009

For an explanation of this forecast, see previous weeks’ posts.

UND’s PWR after this weekend

The chart below shows three forecasts for UND’s PWR as of next Monday. The forecasts show the probability distributions of UND’s PWR for each of three potential scenarios — UND’s sweeps, UND splits, and UND loses both. The probabilities are derived from KRACH-based predictions for the non-UND games.

UND loses both — 62% chance of PWR being 16-17
UND splits — 90% chance of PWR being 12-14
UND sweeps — 60% chance of PWR being 9-10

Who else to cheer for

In order of importance to UND’s PWR, here’s what to cheer for this weekend. How many of these hit or miss is a pretty indicator of where UND will fall on the above curves.

Cornell to lose swept by Rennselaer/Union (boosts UND’s PWR 1.04)
Princeton to lose swept by Brown/Yale (boosts UND’s PWR .84)
Michigan Tech (at least 1) over Minnesota-Duluth (boosts UND’s PWR .48; .64 with a sweep)
Michigan (at least 1) over Ohio State (boost UND’s PWR .50; .62 with a sweep)
Colorado College (at least 1) over Minnesota (boosts UND’s PWR .43; .50 with a sweep)
Northern Michigan (sweep) over Miami (boosts UND’s PWR .45; UND harmed .02 with a single win)
Boston College (at least 1) over New Hampshire (boosts UND’s PWR .38; .43 with a sweep)
Wisconsin (at least 1) over Denver (boosts UND’s PWR .33; .41 with a sweep)

November 14th, 2008. The Alaska-Anchorage Seawolves jumped out to a 3-0 lead against North Dakota at Ralph Engelstad Arena. Sioux freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness entered the game in place of senior Aaron Walski and held UAA scoreless the rest of the way. UND fell short, losing 3-2, but with Eidsness starting in net the next night, the Sioux took down Anchorage 3-1 to gain a split of the weekend series.

Since that series, Eidsness has started every game for North Dakota. The Fighting Sioux are 15-5-3 in those games and tied for first place in the WCHA. In that same span, Alaska-Anchorage has gone 4-10-3 and fallen to ninth place in the league standings.

In the early part of the season, UAA was blistering hot on the power play. In that weekend series in Grand Forks, North Dakota successfully killed all eleven Seawolves power play opportunities, scored a short-handed goal, and tallied three goals with the man advantage. The Fighting Sioux will see plenty of power play opportunities this weekend, and special teams play will be key to any success UND may have in the land where “you can see Russia from my house”.

On the injury front, Sioux defenseman Derrick LaPoint is out for the season after suffering a broken leg against MSU-Mankato. Freshman defenseman Ben Blood will play this weekend, and fellow blueliner Zach Jones appears ready to return from injury. Corey Feinhage also made the trip to Anchorage and could start if necessary.

Up front, Brett Hextall could possibly go this weekend. Brent Davidson traveled as the thirteenth forward and would be inserted into the lineup if Hextall is unable to play.

Alaska Anchorage Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Shyiak (4th season at UAA, 36-82-19, .332)
This Season: 10-13-5 Overall, 7-12-5 WCHA (9th)
National Ranking: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: NR
Team Offense: 2.64 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.21 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 14.1% (21 of 149)
Penalty Kill: 77.2% (149 of 193)
Last Season: 7-21-8 Overall, 3-19-6 WCHA (10th)
Key Players: Junior F Kevin Clark (6-14-20), Junior F Paul Crowder (12-15-27), Sophomore F Tommy Grant (14-7-21), Junior F Josh Lunden (10-5-15), Freshman D Curtis Leinweber (2-9-11), Sophomore G Bryce Christianson (5-5-4, 2.66 GAA, .890 SV)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 124-67-18, .636)
This Season: 18-11-3 Overall, 13-6-3 WCHA (1st)
National Rankings: #9/#9
PairWise Ranking: 12th
Team Offense: 3.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.69 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.8% (41 of 218)
Penalty Kill: 85.7% (144 of 168)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (13-13-26), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (10-14-24), Senior F/D Brad Miller (6-19-25), Sophomore F Matt Frattin (12-7-19), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-26-28), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (18-8-3, 2.47 GAA, .909 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 15, 2008 (Grand Forks, ND). It was a “special” 3-1 victory as North Dakota scored two power play goals, added a shorthanded tally, and held the Seawolves scoreless on seven power plays. Anchorage won Friday’s opener, 3-2.

Last Meeting in Anchorage: November 18, 2006. The Seawolves scored the last three goals of the hockey game and defeated the visiting Sioux 4-2. Anchorage picked up the series sweep after downing North Dakota 6-2 on Friday. In Friday’s game, UAA scored the last five goals after UND jumped out to a 2-1 lead.

Most Important Meeting: March 19, 2004 (St. Paul, MN). The Fighting Sioux and Seawolves met in the semifinal round of the WCHA Final Five, and UND cruised to the championship game with a 4-2 victory.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 37-16-3 (.688), although UAA holds a 13-12-0 advantage in games played in Anchorage. The Seawolves have won four of their past five home games against North Dakota.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has not lost this season when leading after one period of play (10-0-1). UAA sophomore forward Tommy Grant has scored 14 goals this season and is the third-leading goal scorer in the WCHA. UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in 29 consecutive games (including 28 starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Peter Waselovich, who played in a school-record 32 straight games during UND’s 1973-74 season. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 17th on the Fighting Sioux career scoring list, five points behind current UND assistant coach Cary Eades (1978-82). The Seawolves have not lost a game this season (8-0-3) when allowing two or fewer goals.

The Prediction

Historically, this has not been an easy series for UND. Even though the teams are headed in opposite directions, I don’t expect more than a split out of this weekend. UAA 3-2, UND 4-1.

Fighting Sioux head coach Dave Hakstol’s teams have earned a reputation as second-half squads. In Hakstol’s five years at UND, his winning percentage has been significantly better once the calendar turns to the new year. Why do the Sioux seem to surge in the second half? Are there other factors that contribute to early-season struggles? And what should we expect from this year’s North Dakota team down the stretch?

Before we get to this year’s team, let’s look back at the previous four years under Dave Hakstol. For simplicity’s sake, I used January 1st as the midway point for analysis. First, individually:

2004-05 Sioux: First half 13-7-2, Second half 12-8-3 (7-1-1 in March 2005)
2005-06 Sioux: First half 13-8-1, Second half 16-8-0 (8-1-0 in March 2006)
2006-07 Sioux: First half 9-10-1, Second half 15-4-4 (6-1-1 in March 2007)
2007-08 Sioux: First half 9-7-1, Second half 19-4-3 (7-2-2 in March 2008)

And combined 2004-08: First half 44-32-5 (.574), Second half 62-24-8 (.702), 28-5-4 (.811) in March

As you can see, the first two seasons do not necessarily fit the category of “second half surges”. It is interesting to note, however, that in both of those years, the record in the month of March was significantly better than the rest of the season.

The first season where the phrase “second half surge” became widely used was in 2006-07. Not only did the Sioux only lose four games from January until April, the team went on an 11 game unbeaten streak (8-0-3) in January and February. And last year’s North Dakota club went 18 games without a loss (15-0-3) in the second half, again collecting only four losses after New Year’s Day.

And this year’s squad:

2008-09 Sioux: First half 9-10-1, Second Half 12-1-3

The latest version of the second half surge produced an eight game unbeaten streak (6-0-2) in January and a current seven game unbeaten streak (6-0-1).

Each team has its own personality, makeup, and character, but there seems to be a common thread running through Dave Hakstol’s tenure at North Dakota: early season struggles and growing pains lead to consistency in the second half, culminating in an excellent winning percentage during tournament time.

What factors contribute to the early season struggles? For me, it boils down to a team’s identity. Included in that are several questions:

What type of team will each year’s roster become?
Who will handle the goaltending duties?
What types of injuries will they have to overcome?
With early departures, how long will it take the returning players to find and define roles?
Will the incoming freshman class contribute?
Who will handle the key special teams roles, and how long before those units find success?

I’m not suggesting that North Dakota is the only school that has to handle these issues each season; I’m simply bringing them up in an attempt to illustrate that coaching is not an exact science. There is no “magic button”, it’s a process. Early on, I heard Hakstol comment many times that despite the losses, he liked this team and believed that they were very close to playing up to their capabilities.

The biggest factors for this season’s early struggles were goaltending and injuries.

The rotation of Eidsness and Walski did not work out very well. Before Eidsness became the full-time starter on November 15th, UND was 4-6-0. Since then, the Fighting Sioux are 14-5-3. In 23 games as the number-one goaltender, the freshman Eidsness has allowed more than three goals just once, a 7-4 home victory against St. Cloud State.

The biggest injury in the first half was to senior defenseman Joe Finley. Finley was injured on October 11th and did not return to the lineup until December 27th. His injury necessitated fellow defensemen Chay Genoway and Zach Jones to play through injuries in first half and forced freshmen Ben Blood and Corey Fienhage into the lineup. It’s interesting to note that while Finley was out of the lineup, UND allowed 2.94 goals per game. Since his return, that number has dropped to 2.28.

That decline is not all related to Joe Finley; UND’s defense and goaltending have been better overall in the second half. But Finley’s return allows the other defensemen to play their roles and reunites Finley with Chay Genoway, a very successful defensive pairing from last season.

Derrick LaPoint’s season-ending injury throws a wrench into the defensive corps for the remainder of this year. Senior defenseman Zach Jones has been out for a few weeks with an unspecified injury, and if he is unable to go, freshman Corey Fienhage would step into the lineup. Fellow freshman Ben Blood has appeared in 20 games this season and has elevated his game in the second half.

The rest of this discussion is up to you. Is there truth to the second half surge? Is it math or myth? And what do you expect from this year’s team the rest of the way? Leave your comments and let me know what you think.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions.

The Fighting Sioux and Mavericks have both built a reputation as tough, physical hockey teams. The last time these two teams played a regular-season series in Grand Forks, five players were ejected for fighting in the first game. Tensions from that game spilled over into the following season when Rylan Kaip finally squared off against Trevor Bruess after waiting eleven months for the opportunity.

On paper, MSU-M and UND have very similar special teams percentages, but Mankato spends much more time killing penalties, while North Dakota finds itself on the power play much more frequently. The breakdown:

MSU-Mankato: 5.76 power plays per game, 6.79 penalty kills per game
North Dakota: 6.70 power plays per game, 5.27 penalty kills per game

The teams have combined for 13 shorthanded goals this season, including three by the Mavs’ Zach Harrison against UND in the WCHA opener for both schools.

In the impossible-to-predict race for home ice in the conference playoffs, the Mavericks are currently in eighth place but could move up to fourth with a sweep of North Dakota. UND would find itself in first place with a sweep and a Denver loss this weekend.

Minnesota State University Mankato Team Profile

Head Coach: Troy Jutting (9th season at MSUM, 140-158-41, .473)
This Season: 13-13-3 Overall, 9-11-2 WCHA (8th)
National Rankings: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: 24th
Team Offense: 3.17 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.10 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.8% (33 of 167)
Penalty Kill: 79.7% (157 of 197)
Last Season: 19-16-4, 12-12-4 WCHA (4th)
Key Players: Senior F Mick Berge (6-19-25), Junior F Trevor Bruess (10-4-14), Sophomore F Mick Louwerse (12-12-24), Sophomore D Kurt Davis (6-22-28), Senior G Mike Zacharias (12-10-3, 2.95 GAA, .904 SV)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 122-67-18, .633)
This Season: 16-11-3 Overall, 11-6-3 WCHA (3rd)
National Rankings: #11/#11
PairWise Ranking: 16th
Team Offense: 3.47 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.73 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.4% (37 of 201)
Penalty Kill: 85.4% (135 of 158)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (12-11-23), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (9-12-21), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-19-23), Sophomore F Matt Frattin (12-7-19), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-25-27), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (16-8-3, 2.51 GAA, .909 SV)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: October 18, 2008 (Mankato, MN). North Dakota scored three power play goals in the third period to knot the game at 3-3 and Chris Vandevelde scored a shorthanded goal with under ten seconds remaining for a 4-3 victory. The Mavericks won Friday’s opener 5-1, largely due to Zach Harrison’s shorthanded hat trick.

Last meeting in Grand Forks: March 10, 2007. The Fighting Sioux held on for a 2-1 victory and a sweep of the WCHA first round playoff series. North Dakota won the opener, 5-2.

All-time record: UND leads the all-time series 29-10-7 (.707), including a 17-6-3 record (.712) in Grand Forks. Remarkably, 10 of the 44 games played between the two teams have come in the WCHA playoffs, with North Dakota winning eight of those ten games.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has not lost this season when leading after one period of play (9-0-1). UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in 27 consecutive games (including 26 starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Peter Waselovich, who played in a school-record 32 straight games during UND’s 1973-74 season. Maverick freshman forward Mike Louewerse (12-12-24) ranks third in the WCHA in rookie scoring. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 18th on the Fighting Sioux career scoring list, one point behind David Hoogsteen (1995-99). UND is three points behind league leaders Denver and Wisconsin. The Pioneers play one game this weekend (at Colorado College), while the Badgers are idle. A Sioux sweep coupled with a Denver loss would put North Dakota in first place with three weeks remaining in the regular season. UND and MSU-M are two of the three teams (along with Wisconsin) that have swept a weekend series from Minnesota in 2009.

The Prediction

Both teams have a lot to play for, and a split is likely. But North Dakota has been rolling four lines effectively and playing well at home, so I’m looking for the Fighting Sioux to take three points. UND 5-3, 3-3 tie.

The bye week predictions’ results were again solid — the results went slightly against the “cheer for” recommendations so UND ended up at the bottom of the expected curve (keep in mind the predictions were through Monday, pre-Beanpot finale, at which time UND’s PWR was #16).

Without further ado…

Effect on PWR of this weekend’s games

UND wins 0: 78% of being #17-#18, 98% chance of being #16-#19
UND splits: 44% of being #16, 96% chance of being #15-#17
UND sweeps: 73% of being #11-#13, 89% chance of being #10-#14

Other teams to cheer for (or against) this weekend

Mass.-Lowell sweeping Boston College gives UND an average .88 bump in PWR ranking
Providence sweeping New Hampshire gives UND an average .86 bump in PWR ranking
Michigan St. sweeping Ohio St. gives UND an average .82 bump in PWR ranking
Alaska-Anchorage sweeping Minnesota gives UND an average .77 bump in PWR ranking

And a special split cheer against:

Yale losing to RPI and Union gives UND a .79 bump

Likely PWR outcomes for regular season based on remaining UND outcomes

Winning 6 of its remaining 8 is the worst UND can do and still stand over a 50% chance of being #13 or higher in the PWR at the end of the regular season.

Ok, so it’s really past midseason, but with the bye week upon us and the stretch run ahead of us, I thought I’d take a look at how North Dakota’s season has gone so far and spend some time discussing what to watch for the rest of the way.

The Lows:

It was an inconsistent first half for the Fighting Sioux, as North Dakota went 5-8-1 in October and November. UND did not find consistent goaltending until mid-November, and injuries to Chay Genoway and Joe Finley depleted the defensive corps and forced freshmen defenseman Ben Blood and Corey Feinhage into action.

North Dakota’s loss and tie at Minnesota-Duluth in November may prove costly come tournament time, as both teams are squarely on the bubble for the NCAAs. At the moment, the Bulldogs win the comparison against UND, largely due to the results of that series. The two teams will not meet again in the regular season.

The Great Lakes Invitational was the only hiccup in an otherwise stellar December and January. UND lost to Michigan State and Michigan Tech by identical 2-1 scores. Had one or both of those games ended up as North Dakota victories, the Fighting Sioux would not be in the precarious post-season position they currently find themselves in.

The Highs:

As I mentioned above, the Fighting Sioux have come on strong in the last two months, posting a record of 11-3-2 and vaulting to second place in the league standings. After notching only two goals in two games at the Great Lakes Invitational, UND averaged 4.2 goals per game in January and went 7-1-2.

Freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has been the most important part of North Dakota’s second half surge. Since taking over the starting job midway through a November 14th game against Alaska-Anchorage, the rookie netminder has posted a 13-5-3 record with a goals-against average of 2.22 and a save percentage of .917. During that stretch, Eidsness has allowed more than three goals just once, a 7-4 home victory against St. Cloud State.

Another key component for UND’s success has been balanced scoring. Opponents cannot simply key on one line to stop North Dakota’s offensive output, as twelve Fighting Sioux players are averaging more than a point per weekend. Ryan Martens (10 goals, 9 assists) and Brad Miller (4 goals, 19 assists) are having outstanding senior campaigns, while sophomore forward Matt Frattin is tied for the team lead with twelve goals after netting only four all of last season (in 43 games).

Freshmen forwards David Toews (5-6-11), Brett Hextall (8-8-16), and Jason Gregoire (10-10-20) have all stepped in and contributed right away. Hextall and Gregoire, in particular, have been outstanding while paired with senior center Ryan Duncan.

North Dakota’s home sweep of Minnesota was another highlight of the season so far. In drubbing the visiting Gophers 6-3 and 6-1, the Fighting Sioux demonstrated that they could play a full 120 minutes of hockey against any team in the country.

What To Watch For:

The race for the McNaughton Cup is the first item of interest for this year’s team. North Dakota currently sits all alone in second place in the league standings, one point behind Denver and one point ahead of third-place Wisconsin. The Fighting Sioux will travel to Wisconsin for the final weekend of the regular season in a series that might well determine the conference champion.

UND is in good shape for home ice in the first round of the playoffs, but anything can happen over the final month of the season. MSU-Mankato, for example, is currently in seventh place in the WCHA but could pull to within one point of North Dakota with a sweep next weekend in Grand Forks.

North Dakota is squarely on the bubble for the NCAA tournament, and with the potential of 10-14 games remaining before the field of 16 is announced, will have to win at least 75% of those games or win the WCHA Final Five to advance to the national tournament. With difficult road trips remaining to Anchorage and Wisconsin, UND will need to continue its stellar home ice play (9-3-1 at Ralph Engelstad Arena this season) against MSU-Mankato and Colorado College, two teams the Sioux split with earlier this season.

Across the league, Denver and Minnesota appear to be locks for the NCAA tournament, while Wisconsin, Minnesota-Duluth, Colorado College, St. Cloud State, and North Dakota all have a chance of receiving an at-large bid. I expect the WCHA to field three or four teams in this year’s tournament.

It’s amazing to think that UND is in position to claim the McNaughton Cup as league champion but could still miss the NCAA tournament. A medicore non-conference record of 5-5-0 has put North Dakota in this position, but there are still plenty of games left to be played.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments and suggestions.

For frequent readers, the only surprise this weekend was the amusing groundswell of interest in my headshot.

There was no surprise in UND’s PWR, which came out right in the meaty part of the curve again — quoting Forecasting the PWR… a look ahead at SCSU, “Split: 77% chance of landing #14 or #15”. The Sioux split, and are #15.

Forecast

You might think this a boring week for predictions, given that UND doesn’t play. Quite to the contrary, it’s one of the more interesting to date.

Because UND doesn’t play, there’s only a single distribution of where UND is likely to end up. Because UND has no games, all movement through the distribution is caused entirely by other teams’ results. It’s an interesting look at how much PWR is influenced, in just a single weekend, by other teams’ movements.

#14-#15 — 62% likelihood
#13-#16 — 93% likelihood
#8 — 1/1,000,000 chance

Who else to cheer for?

Note — updated as of 2:30PM CT, Feb. 2.  List was incorrect before then.  Hat tip to Siouxweet, see comments below.

The results this week are a little wonky because of all the split series in which a team is playing two different opponents.

Denver winning 2 games (Minnesota Duluth) gives UND an average PWR ranking increase of 1.16

Minnesota winning 1 game (Wisconsin) gives UND an average PWR ranking increase of .92 (the sweep increases that to .95)

Notre Dame winning 2 games (Ohio St) gives UND an average PWR ranking increase of .92 (1 game gives just .25)

Massachusetts winning 2 games (B.C. and Mass Lowell) gives UND an average PWR ranking increase of .86

Others the Sioux want to see win: Harvard (over Yale and BU), Colgate (over Princeton), and Cornell (over Princeton)

TUC cliff quirk of the week: Maine sweeping UNH gives UND a .85 raise, but a single win harms us.  Presumably the two wins would push Maine into TUC territory.

Special Timing Note

Given the Beanpot, note that this forecast includes predictions of tonight’s games to create a predicted PWR as of next Monday, excluding that day’s games.

Though the Sioux continue to complicate things with ties, I’m again going to declare reasonable success in last week’s prediction.  A split was predicted to most likely land UND in the 14-17 range and a sweep in the 11-14 range.  3 points on the weekend left UND at 14-15.

So, without further ado, this week’s forecast:

Help for those who don’t like reading graphs:

Sioux sweep: 67% chance of landing at #12 or #13, 94% chance of landing between #11-#14.

Split: 77% chance of landing #14 or #15

Sioux swept: 60% chance of landing #17 or #18, 91% chance of landing between #16-#19.

Who else to cheer for?

Of teams playing just 1 game:

Vermont win over New Hampshire gives UND an average rise of .472

Of teams playing 2 games:

A Bemidji St sweep over Bob Morris gives UND an average rise of .607 (a single win gives UND a rise of .277)
An Alaska sweep over Ohio State gives UND an average rise of .518 (a single win gives UND a rise of .247)

End of season outlook

Last but not least, there’s been a lot of speculation how many games UND needs to win to make the tournament. For the regular season only, here’s UND likely PWR ranking based on how many of its remaining games it wins. To be comfortably ranked higher than 13 would require winning 80%, though it’s a tossup at 60%, and still possible at 50%.

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its scheduling system, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season (and play the other schools twice one season, four times the next, and so on). Minnesota and Wisconsin were paired up, as were Colorado College and Denver. All four of those schools, and particularly Minnesota and Wisconsin, would have made excellent schedule partners for UND.

And which of the remaining teams would become North Dakota’s schedule partner? Alaska-Anchorage? Mankato? No, as the two newest members of the WCHA (1993 and 1999, respectively), the Seawolves and Mavericks were paired with each other. How about Minnesota-Duluth or Michigan Tech, schools which had been members of the conference for over 35 years? No again. Those two schools are just over 200 miles apart, and that was certainly a factor in the decision.

That left St. Cloud State, a familiar foe for Sioux fans from North Central Conference football and basketball games. The St. Cloud State Huskies had been a Division I hockey program for 15 years (and a WCHA member for 12) before the 2002-03 season, and had posted a 83-34-6 (.699) record over the previous three seasons. By contrast, from 1999-02, UND held a record of 76-35-16 (.654).

The two schools had played a handful of meaningful games in the past. In 1991 (St. Cloud’s first in the league), the Huskies and Sioux met in Grand Forks for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. St. Cloud took the opener, 4-2, before falling 10-2 and 7-4 in games 2 and 3. The two teams met in the 1998 and 2000 WCHA Final Five semifinal games, with North Dakota prevailing in both contests. Perhaps the best reason to be optimistic about the rivalry was the 2001 WCHA Final Five championship game, a hard-fought contest which St. Cloud State won on Derek Eastman’s overtime winner.

It’s fair to say that in 2002 there was confusion AND cautious optimism surrounding the potential rivalry between the two teams. (And on a personal note, I had already traveled to St. Cloud for the Sioux/Husky games four times before the rivalry announcement was made, and I was more than pleased that I would now be able to make this trip every year.)

It’s also fair to say that the rivalry has caught on over the past seven seasons. The two teams have played eight overtime contests in their 30 regular-season meetings, and points are tough to come by, at home and on the road. The fans have also made their mark on the partnership between the schools, as the UND/SCSU rivalry now has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is awarded to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games. As you may be able to see in the photo above, the winning team is engraved for each year. UND won the Challenge Cup in 2005, going 3-0-1 against the Huskies. St. Cloud took the trophy back in 2006, sporting a record of 3-1-0 against North Dakota. In 2007, the Sioux won two games and tied the other two, collecting six points and the Challenge Cup. The next season, the teams shared the Cup, with UND and SCSU each winning one game and tying the other two. And last year, North Dakota sprinted to the lead in the Challenge Cup race by winning both games in Grand Forks but needed a Saturday victory in St. Cloud to salvage a split on the weekend and reclaim the Cup.

The Challenge Cup will be on display at the SiouxSports.com pre-game social this Saturday, November 14th from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Southgate Grill and Bar in Grand Forks. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of this hockey rivalry. The event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

For more on this weekend’s series, click here. Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions.