Look back
I should have done this last week, but the end of the season is a good time to look back at the first end of season prediction. With 8 games remaining, I predicted the following:
UND went on to win 7 of its last 8 and landed at #5 in the PWR.
As for last week’s forecast, landing at 5 or 6 were the most likely outcomes for winning the series in 3.
Look forward
This one is a little boring. Unlike last season when the forecast surprisingly revealed that UND could land anywhere from #3 to #13, this year the possibilities are exactly what a human using the You Are The Committee tool would deduce: UND can land anywhere from #3 to #6. Winning it all is required to climb to #3 and would ensure a finish no lower than #5, otherwise #4 to #6 is possible.
The only interesting, though not surprising, thing to note is that UND is likely to finish slightly higher if they lose the play-in than if they win the play-in but go on to lose two. Of course, at this point in the season the absolute ranking is a lot less important than the bracket implications, for which you have to check out some other resources…
Other resources
- PWR Forum thread – already contains lots of discussion about exactly what needs to happen for UND to achieve each ranking
- You Are the Committee – Run your own PWR scenarios