Category: Men’s Hockey

What a difference one minute makes.

The Miami RedHawks led Boston University 3-1 with under one minute remaining in the 2009 national championship game. The Terriers roared back, scoring two extra-attacker goals in the final 60 seconds of regulation. After almost twelve excruciating minutes of overtime, Colby Cohen’s shot deflected, looped, and dropped into the net, giving BU their fifth national championship.

Miami was one minute from hanging their first NCAA championship banner.

Instead of folding the tent, Enrico Blasi’s RedHawks have gone 83-45-20 (.628) since that game and appear poised to make another deep run in the NCAA’s this season. Forwards Austin Czarnik and Riley Barber are dynamic together and scored 12 points (6g, 6a) in a sweep against Ohio State last weekend.

For North Dakota, the Danny Kristo and Corban Knight era is over, and the Green and White will need to find a more balanced offensive attack to compete every weekend. Five different players scored UND’s seven goals last weekend against Vermont, with sophomore forwards Rocco Grimaldi (2g, 3a) and Drake Caggiula (2g, 2a) leading the way.

Both teams fell one game short of the Frozen Four last season, with Miami dropping a 4-1 contest to St. Cloud State and North Dakota losing 4-1 to eventual national champion Yale.

I have these two programs finishing #1 and #2 in the first season of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference. To check out my complete NCHC season preview and find out who I think will come out on top, click here.

Miami Team Profile

Head Coach: Enrico Blasi (15th season at Miami, 313-196-53, .604)
National Ranking: #1
This Season: 2-0-0, 0-0-0 NCHC
Last Season: 25-12-5 overall (NCAA Midwest Regional finalist), 17-7-4-4 CCHA (1st)

2012-2013 Season Statistics:
Team Offense: 2.52 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.74 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.9% (28 of 176)
Penalty Kill: 88.6% (171 of 193)

Key players (2012-13 statistics): Junior F Austin Czarnik (14-26-40), Sophomore F Riley Barber (15-24-39), Junior F Cody Murphy (11-9-20), Sophomore D Matthew Caito (5-16-21), Sophomore G Ryan McKay (13-7-2, 1.39 GAA, .946 SV%, 4 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (10th season at UND, 236-119-38, .649)
National Ranking: #6
This Season: 1-0-1, 0-0-0 NCHC
Last Season: 22-13-7 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)

2012-2013 Season Statistics:
Team Offense: 3.21 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.45 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.4% (32 of 165)
Penalty Kill: 84.1% (132 of 157)

Key Players (2012-13 statistics): Sophomore F Rocco Grimaldi (13-23-36), Junior F Mark MacMillan (13-12-25), Sophomore F Drake Caggiula (8-8-16), Sophomore F Michael Parks (7-1-8 in 25 games), Senior D Dillon Simpson (5-19-24), Junior D Nick Mattson (3-12-15), Senior G Clarke Saunders (13-9-4, 2.30 GAA, .917 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 28, 2009 (Subway Holiday Classic, Grand Forks, ND). In the teams’ first and only meeting at Ralph Engelstad Arena, the two powerhouses skated to a 5-5 draw. Miami came back from a two goal deficit in the third period, with RedHawks forward Reilly Smith (2g, 1a) scoring the equalizer with under three minutes remaining to earn the tie. Freshman forward Danny Kristo scored two goals and added an assist and was named the tournament MVP after a four point weekend. Both teams came in to the contest allowing under two goals per game.

Most Important Meeting: The most important meeting is the one about to be played. This matchup kicks off the inaugural season of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference and has far-reaching NCAA playoff implications.

All-time Series: North Dakota leads the all-time series 2-0-1. The teams have never played in Oxford, Ohio (home of the Miami RedHawks), but UND did win a 3-0 tilt at the Lefty McFadden Invitational (Dayton, OH) in October of 2005.

Game News and Notes

After this weekend’s games, Miami will not play another conference series until November 8-9 at St. Cloud State. North Dakota will host St. Cloud State on November 1st and 2nd. UND senior netminder Clarke Saunders is the only current player to have faced the RedHawks. Saunders started two games for Alabama-Huntsville in February 2012, stopping 73 of 80 shots in a pair of losses. Miami is one of 12 schools in NCAA men’s hockey to start this season with a pair of victories.

The Prediction

This series will be as tightly contested as any October contests, with both teams wanting to set the tone early in this rivalry and this new conference season. Look for Miami to blitz North Dakota early, with UND grabbing a close victory on Saturday for the split. Miami 4-2, UND 3-2.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments and suggestions.

With six of the top nine teams from the WCHA and two of the top three squads from the now-defunct CCHA, the inaugural season of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference is wide open.

In addition to league champions St. Cloud State (WCHA) and Miami (CCHA), the NCHC also boasts the #3 teams from the WCHA (North Dakota) and the CCHA (Western Michigan).

College hockey’s newest conference also boasts at least three Hobey Baker contenders in Nebraska-Omaha’s Ryan Walters, Miami’s Austin Czarnik, and North Dakota’s Rocco Grimaldi.

What follows is my prediction for the league standings, from #8 all the way up to #1. (Media prediction in parenthesis)

For a complete look at my preseason ballot, click here.

#8 Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks (#8)

Head Coach: Dean Blais (5th season at UNO, 75-69-16, .519)

2012-13 Season: 19-18-2 overall, 14-12-7 WCHA (7th)
Team Offense: 3.26 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.9% (25 of 132)
Penalty Kill: 76.6% (121 of 158)

Key returning players: Senior F Ryan Walters (22-30-52), Junior F Josh Archibald (19-17-36), Junior F Dominic Zombo (12-23-35), Senior D Michael Young (3-13-16), Sophomore D Nick Seeler (2-7-9), Junior G Ryan Massa (0-2-0, 5.42 GAA, .818 SV%)

Key losses: F Matt White (16-18-34),F Brent Gwidt (8-5-13), D Andrej Sustr (9-16-25), D Bryce Aneloski (5-16-21), G John Faulkner (16-10-2, 2.97 GAA, .891 SV%)

2013-14 season outlook: Ryan Walters will be in the running for the NCHC player of the year, but will UNO’s influx of young talent (most notably Austin Ortega and Jake Guentzel) keep the Mavs out of the conference cellar? And will Ryan Massa play well enough in net to keep Dean Blais’ squad competitive?

#7 Colorado College (t-#6)

Head Coach: Scott Owens (15th season at CC, 317-204-48, .599)

2012-13 Season: 18-19-5 overall, 11-13-4 WCHA (8th)
Team Offense: 3.17 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.36 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.1% (25 of 146)
Penalty Kill: 80.0% (128 of 160)

Key returning players: Senior F Alexander Krushelnyski (15-28-43), Senior F Archie Skalbeck (12-11-23), Junior F Charlie Taft (8-10-18), Senior D Eamonn McDermott (3-20-23), Junior D Peter Stoykewych (2-9-11), Senior G Josh Thorimbert (4-7-1, 3.73 GAA, .873 SV%)

Key losses: F Rylan Schwartz (20-33-53), F William Rapuzzi (15-20-35), D Mike Boivin (14-14-28), F Scott Winkler (13-15-28), G Joe Howe (14-12-4, 2.98 GAA, .915 SV%, 2 SO)

2013-14 season outlook: It’s really only one question: Will Josh Thorimbert be able to handle the duties between the pipes?

#6 Minnesota-Duluth (#5)

Head Coach: Scott Sandelin (14th season at UMD, 232-229-64, .503)

2012-13 Season: 14-19-5 overall, 10-13-5 WCHA (9th)
Team Offense: 2.61 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.87 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.4% (41 of 175)
Penalty Kill: 82.3% (135 of 164)

Key returning players: Sophomore F Austin Farley (16-18-34), Sophomore F Tony Cameranesi (14-20-34), Senior F Joe Basaraba (10-7-17), Sophomore D Andy Welinski (4-14-18), Sophomore G Matt McNeely (10-11-3, 2.67 GAA, .902 SV%, 1 SO)

Key losses: F Mike Seidel (17-17-34), F Jake Hendrickson (5-3-8), D Drew Olson (1-6-7), D Wade Bergman (3-14-17), D Chris Casto (3-6-9)

2013-14 season outlook: Will last year’s dynamite freshman class (98 points in 177 games played last season) build on that success or suffer a sophomore slump? And which new blueliners will step up and fill the gaps on the back end?

#5 Denver Pioneers (#4)

Head Coach: Jim Montgomery (1st season at DU)

2012-13 Season: 20-14-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 14-9-5 WCHA (5th)
Team Offense: 3.36 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.77 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.3% (35 of 164)
Penalty Kill: 85.2% (144 of 169)

Key returning players: Junior F Ty Loney (8-18-26), Junior F Daniel Doremus (12-12-24), Junior F Zac Larraza (12-9-21), Junior D Joey LaLeggia (11-18-29), Senior D David Makowski (9-18-27), Sophomore D Nolan Zajac (6-20-26), Senior G Sam Brittain (5-7-0, 2.95 GAA, .907 SV%)

Key losses: F Nick Shore (14-20-34), F Chris Knowlton(13-16-29), F Shawn Ostrow (15-11-26), D Paul Phillips (1-10-11), G Juho Olkinuora (13-6-5, 2.35 GAA, .927 SV%, 3 SO)

2013-14 season outlook: Only two seniors remain from a standout class that at one time included Nick Shore, Jason Zucker, and Beau Bennett. With a new coach, where will the leadership come from? And which forwards will emerge to take the Pioneers to the next level?

#4 Western Michigan Broncos (t-#6)

Head Coach: Andy Murray (3rd season at WMU, 40-27-14, .580)

2012-13 Season: 19-11-8 overall, 15-7-6-3 CCHA (3rd)
Team Offense: 2.29 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.05 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 16.9% (32 of 189)
Penalty Kill: 85.3% (133 of 156)

Key returning players: Senior F Chase Balisy (11-14-25), Senior F Shane Berschbach (4-14-18), Sophomore F Colton Hargrove (9-1-10), Sophomore D Kenney Morrison (7-13-20), Senior D Dennis Brown (3-15-18), Junior G Frank Slubowski (19-11-8, 2.00 GAA, .918 SV%, 4 SO)

Key losses: F Dane Walters (12-13-25),F Mike Cichy (4-14-18), F Mike Leone (6-11-17), D Danny DeKeyser (2-13-15), D Luke Witkowski (2-8-10)

2013-14 season outlook: I like this club more than most. We know that the Broncos will be the stingiest team in the league, but can Western Michigan score enough to be relevant in the NCHC? Andy Murray’s club will be miserable to play against, but three goals will be enough to top WMU on most nights.

#3 St. Cloud State Huskies (#3)

Head Coach: Bob Motzko (9th season at SCSU, 163-125-36, .559)

2012-13 Season: 25-16-1 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-9-1 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.36 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.45 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.1% (30 of 175)
Penalty Kill: 81.9% (95 of 116)

Key returning players: Senior F Nick Dowd (14-25-39), Sophomore F Jonny Brodzinski (22-11-33), Sophomore F Kalle Kossila (15-18-33), Sophomore F Joey Benik (8-4-12), Junior D Andrew Prochno (5-23-28), Junior G Ryan Faragher (24-14-1, 2.27 GAA, .914 SV%, 3 SO)

Key losses: F Drew LeBlanc (13-37-50), F Ben Hanowski (17-14-31), D Nick Jensen (4-27-31)

2013-14 season outlook: After a landmark season which included the program’s first Hobey Baker award winner and first Frozen Four berth, will Bob Motzko be able to keep the Huskies hungry enough to take another step forward? And how will SCSU replace the leadership of LeBlanc and Jensen?

#2 North Dakota (#2)

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (10th season at UND, 236-119-38, .649)

2012-13 Season: 22-13-7 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)
Team Offense: 3.21 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.45 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.4% (32 of 165)
Penalty Kill: 84.1% (132 of 157)

Key returning players: Sophomore F Rocco Grimaldi (13-23-36), Junior F Mark McMillan (13-12-25), Sophomore F Drake Caggiulla (8-8-16), Senior D Dillon Simpson (5-19-24), Junior D Nick Mattson (3-12-15), Senior G Clarke Saunders (13-9-4, 2.30 GAA, .917 SV%, 2 SO), Sophomore G Zane Gothberg (9-4-3, 2.46 GAA, .920 SV%)

Key losses: F Corban Knight (16-33-49), F Danny Kristo (26-26-52), F Carter Rowney (10-17-27), D Joe Gleason (5-13-18), D Derek Forbort (4-13-17)

2013-14 season outlook: After being a one-line team for much of last season, will North Dakota get the balanced scoring necessary to compete every weekend? And how will Dave Hakstol handle the goaltending rotation of Saunders and Gothberg, both worthy starters each night?

#1 Miami RedHawks (#1)

Head Coach: Enrico Blasi (15th season at Miami, 313-196-53, .604)

2012-13 Season: 25-12-5 overall (NCAA Midwest Regional finalist), 17-7-4-4 CCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 2.52 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.74 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.9% (28 of 176)
Penalty Kill: 88.6% (171 of 193)

Key returning players: Junior F Austin Czarnik (14-26-40), Sophomore F Riley Barber (15-24-39), Junior F Cody Murphy (11-9-20), Sophomore D Matthew Caito (5-16-21), Sophomore G Ryan McKay (13-7-2, 1.39 GAA, .946 SV%, 4 SO)

Key losses: F Curtis McKenzie (11-13-24), F Marc Hagel (6-13-19), D Steven Spinell (1-12-13)

2011-12 season outlook: Can Miami handle the pressure of preseason expectations? Will the Redhawks adjust to a slate of new opponents quickly enough to find itself on top?

So there you have it. Do you agree? Disagree? Who do you have coming out on top? Feel free to post your predictions below, and check back in December for a midseason report.

Despite the fact that Vermont and UND have only met twice on the ice (most recently in 1999), the Catamounts roster (and particularly its blueline) has North Dakota fingerprints all over it.

Defenseman Dan Senkbeil (affectionately known as “Jim” or “Jimmer”) transferred to Vermont after playing his first two years at UND. Senkbeil will sit out this season due to NCAA transfer rules.

Defenseman Nick Bruneteau is the younger brother of former UND forward Brett Bruneteau, who spent two seasons at North Dakota before finishing his career with the Catamounts.

And defenseman Yvan Pattyn is the younger brother of current UND forward Stephane Pattyn.

North Dakota has a new-look conference this season, moving to the National Collegiate Hockey Conference after 54 seasons in the WCHA. Vermont went through a similar transition 10 years ago, moving to Hockey East after 31 years in the ECAC.

Catamounts head coach Kevin Sneddon took Vermont to the Frozen Four in 2008-09 and back to the NCAA tournament the following season, but it’s been tough sledding since then. Vermont won only six games in 2011-12, but are moving in the right direction, picking up 11 victories last year.

The most glaring advantage that North Dakota has in this matchup is in special teams. Last season, Vermont allowed 38 power play goals and only scored 17, while the Green and White scored 32 goals with the man advantage and only allowed 25.

Two other roster notes: Vermont junior forward Kyle Reynolds (9-11-20) last season) suffered a knee injury during an exhibition tilt last weekend and is shut down for the season. And sophomore goaltender Brody Hoffman (11-19-6, 2.86 GAA, .904 SV%, 2 SO last season) is not making the trip, so one of two freshman netminders will start between the pipes: Mike Santaguida (5-9, 175 lbs.) or Pat Feeley (6-7, 226 lbs.)

Vermont Team Profile

Head Coach: Kevin Sneddon (11th season at Vermont, 147-174-53, .464)
National Ranking: NR/NR
This Season: 0-0-0 overall, 0-0-0 Hockey East
Last Season: 11-19-6 overall, 8-13-6 Hockey East (t-7th)

2012-13 Season Statistics:
Team Offense: 2.28 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.06 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 11.1% (17 of 153)
Penalty Kill: 79.1% (144 of 182)

Key Returning Players (2012-13 statistics): Junior F Jake Fallon (9-13-22), Senior F Matt White (6-10-16), Senior F H.T. Lenz (5-5-10), Junior D Nick Luukko (3-7-10), Junior D Michael Paliotta (1-9-10), Sophomore G Brody Hoffman (11-19-6, 2.86 GAA, .904 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (10th season at UND, 235-119-37, .648)
National Ranking: #7/#7
This Season: 0-0-0, 0-0-0 NCHC
Last Season: 22-13-7 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)

2012-2013 Season Statistics:
Team Offense: 3.21 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.45 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.4% (32 of 165)
Penalty Kill: 84.1% (132 of 157)

Key Returning Players (2012-13 statistics): Sophomore F Rocco Grimaldi (13-23-36), Junior F Mark MacMillan (13-12-25), Sophomore F Drake Caggiula (8-8-16), Sophomore F Michael Parks (7-1-8 in 25 games), Senior D Dillon Simpson (5-19-24), Junior D Nick Mattson (3-12-15), Senior G Clarke Saunders (13-9-4, 2.30 GAA, .917 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 27, 1999 (Durham, NH). The Fighting Sioux blitzed the Catamounts 8-0 in the opening round of the UNH Classic. Bryan Lundbohm scored twice, Jason Ulmer picked up three points (2g, 1a), and Jeff Panzer notched three assists for North Dakota, which went 4-for-4 with the man advantage. UND would fall to host New Hampshire 6-2 in the championship game.

Most Important Meeting: Considering the two schools have only met twice on the ice (in 1981 and 1999, both North Dakota victories), I will call Friday’s opener the most important meeting, with both teams looking to set the tone for this new season.

All-time Series: North Dakota leads the all-time series 2-0-0. The teams have never played in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes:

North Dakota has lost just three times in its last 17 season openers (11-3-3) and has won ten straight home openers. Vermont goaltenders Mike Santaguida and Pat Feeley combined for a 16-save shutout last Saturday before Santaguida got the nod on Sunday, stopping 17 of 18 shots. Both UND netminders cracked the top ten single-season save percentage leaderboard last year (Zane Gothberg posted a .920, while Clarke Saunders ended at .917). Five NCHC schools made the USCHO.com preseason top-20, led by #2 Miami and #7 North Dakota. St. Cloud State (#9), Denver (#17), and Western Michigan (#18) also made the list.

The Prediction

I’m trying to figure out a way for the Catamounts to earn a point this weekend, but I just don’t see it. Saturday’s rematch will be closer, but North Dakota is deeper and will use the home crowd to their advantage. UND 3-1, 3-2.

As many of you know, the 1st Annual NCHC Blog/Web Media Preseason Poll results came out last week, thanks to Chad at Tradition Of Excellence.

I thought I would share my ballot, along with a few thoughts.

First, the order of finish for the inaugural season of the NCHC. What follows is the order I have the teams on my ballot, with the poll results in parenthesis.

1. Miami (1)
2. North Dakota (2)
3. St. Cloud State (3)
4. Western Michigan (t-6)
5. Denver (4)
6. Minnesota-Duluth (5)
7. Colorado College (t-6)
8. Nebraska-Omaha (8)

Obviously, I think more highly of Western Michigan than most of the poll participants. Check out my NCHC Season Preview and Predictions to find out why I’ve got them in the top half of the league.

My preseason All-Conference Team:

Forwards: Austin Czarnik (Miami), Alexander Krushelnyski (CC), Ryan Walters (UNO)
Defensemen: Joey LaLeggia (DU), Dillon Simpson (UND)
Goaltender: Ryan McKay (Miami)

The only place where my ballot differs from the poll results is that UND forward Rocco Grimaldi makes the all-conference team over Krushelnyski. For me, it’s close, but I went with the senior who has appeared in 122 NCAA contests already (to Rocco’s 40) and scored seven more points than Grimaldi last season. (Krushelnyski 15-28-43; Grimaldi 13-23-36).

Player of the Year: Austin Czarnik (Miami)

Czarnik was named the preseason player of the year with 8 of 16 votes.

Rookie of the Year: Adam Tambellini (UND)

Tambellini came in second in the voting with 4 votes; Dominic Toninato (Minnesota-Duluth) collected 6 votes.

Defenseman of the Year: Joey LaLeggia (DU)

LaLeggia ran away with this one with 10 votes.

Breakout Player of the Year: Tony Cameranesi (UMD)

Joey Benik (St. Cloud State) was tabbed as the preseason player of the year with 5 votes; 11 other players received a single vote.

As always, I welcome your thoughts and suggestions. Please feel free to add your own ballots in the comments section below.

As most of you have already figured out, yesterday’s blog post, “After further review: UND and Yale to replay West Regional final”, was an April Fools’ joke.

As I sat and watched the comments roll in, I was reminded of my favorite April Fools’ columns and thought I would share them with you again today…

2009: “Rule Change: Ties in the Frozen Four to be decided by shootout”

2010: “REA to cut beer sizes and raise prices for 2010-11 season”

2011: “NCAA to drop nickname settlement and sanctions altogether if UND wins hockey championship”

2012: “Audio from ‘The Timeout’ available for the first time”

2013: “After further review: UND and Yale to replay West Regional final”

Which are your favorites? More to the point: Which, at the time, did you fall for?

SiouxSports.com has just learned that the NCAA director of officials for the 2013 Division I Men’s Ice Hockey Championship has overturned the disallowed goal from the first period of Saturday’s Yale/North Dakota regional final in Grand Rapids, Michigan. The goal review, which took nearly nine minutes during the game, wasn’t long enough, according to Kristin Fasbender, NCAA associate director of championships and alliances and operations manager for the tournament.

Speaking on behalf of the NCAA officials, Fasbender reported that a three-person “review team” has been sequestered since late Saturday evening, and after nearly 36 hours, they have a verdict.

“They went back-and-forth on the thing,” she said, “because they wanted it to be unanimous. This is so important. The guys on the ice did the best they could, but they didn’t want the game to drag on, so they kind of mailed it in at the end. Late this morning, I got the call from the review team that it was a goal.”

The next question was what to do with that information? Should they keep it a secret? Make the final score “Yale 4, North Dakota 2” and move on?

“We knew that we had to replay the game. That early in the game (2:31 into the first period), that can change everything,” Fasbender continued. “So we asked North Dakota if they could host the game since they were the higher seed and we knew we could sell 11,000 tickets in four days. I called (Dave) Hakstol as soon as I found out to make sure none of his seniors played in an NHL game before this weekend.”

The game will be played this Friday, April 5th at 7:37 p.m., the customary start time for Friday home games at UND. When the puck is dropped at center ice, the scoreboard will read UND 1, Yale 0 with 17:29 to play in the first period. The teams will be required to dress the identical lineup as the first time around, although either coach will be allowed to change his starters and line combinations. It is unclear whether North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol will tab freshman Zane Gothberg or junior Clarke Saunders in net.

The winner of Friday’s replay will join St. Cloud State, Quinnipiac, and Massachusettes-Lowell in the Frozen Four, held in Pittsburgh, PA on April 11th and 13th.

A press conference detailing ticketing procedures is scheduled to air at 4:01 p.m. Central on ESPNU.

North Dakota’s seniors are getting another shot at Yale. As freshmen in 2010, UND faced the Bulldogs in the regional semifinal. Yale stormed out to a 3-0 lead and held on for a 3-2 victory (full recap below).

Remarkably, North Dakota is playing in a regional final for the seventh time in Dave Hakstol’s nine seasons as head coach and eighth time in the last ten years. On the other bench, the Bulldogs are playing in their third national quarterfinal game in four seasons. Yale lost to Boston College in 2010 and Minnesota-Duluth in 2011; both of those programs went on to championships in those seasons.

Both teams produced heroes in their opening round games. Bulldogs forward Jesse Root scored his tenth goal of the season just nine seconds into overtime as the Elis downed Minnesota, while North Dakota senior defenseman Andrew MacWilliam potted just his second goal of the season when he knotted the game at 1-1 early in the third period against Niagara. UND senior forward Danny Kristo added the game winner for the Green and White less than a minute later, setting up a Yale-North Dakota regional final. 18 of Kristo’s 26 goals this season have come with his team tied or trailing, and Kristo now has five goals in five playoff games this year.

Yale Team Profile

Head Coach: Keith Allain (7th season at Yale, 135-84-19, .607)
Pairwise Ranking: t-14th
National Ranking: #15
This Season: 19-12-3 overall, 12-9-1 ECAC (3rd)
Last Season: 16-16-3 overall, 10-10-2 ECAC (t-6th)

Team Offense: 2.82 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.74 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.2% (33 of 156)
Penalty Kill: 83.2% (129 of 155)

Key Players: Junior F Kenny Agostino (16-23-39), Senior F Andrew Miller (16-20-36), Senior F Antoine Laganiere (14-13-27), Sophomore D Tommy Fallen (7-15-22), Freshman D Ryan Obuchowski (3-9-12), Senior G Jeff Malcolm (17-6-2, 2.40 GAA, .915 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 235-118-37, .650)
Pairwise Ranking: 8th
National Ranking: #7
This Season: 22-12-7 overall, 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.27 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.41 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.8% (32 of 162)
Penalty Kill: 84.2% (128 of 152)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (15-33-48), Senior F Danny Kristo (26-26-52), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (13-12-25), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (13-23-36), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-12-16), Junior D Dillon Simpson (5-19-24), Freshman G Zane Gothbergg (9-4-3, 2.46 GAA, .920 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 27, 2010 (Worcester, MA). The Elis took a 3-0 lead into the second intermission and held on for a 3-2 victory over North Dakota. Junior goaltender Ryan Rondeau started only his fifth game of the season and made 34 saves for the Bulldogs, while Denny Kearney scored two of Yale’s thee goals. Goals by UND forwards Brett Hextall and Matt Frattin made it interesting in the final frame, but the Green and White could not find the equalizer and Yale advanced to the regional final against Boston College. It was the Bulldogs’ first NCAA tournament victory since 1954.

Most Important Meeting: The teams have never met in an NCAA regional final or in the Frozen Four, so I will call today’s tilt the most important game ever played between these two squads.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 5-1-0 (.833).

Game News and Notes

After appearing in the NCAA tournament just one in its first 47 years as an ECAC member, Keith Allain has his Bulldogs in the national playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons. North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol is 12-3 in NCAA regional games. Yale went 11-3-1 at home this year but just 8-9-1 on the road or at neutral sites.

The Prediction

The first ten minutes will be key for both teams. Yale will hope to survive the opening flurry, while UND will look to play its style from the drop of the puck. Goaltending and officiating will be key, and North Dakota’s power play will need to show signs of life. If Dave Hakstol’s crew can score at least one goal with the man advantage, the Green and White should advance to the Frozen Four. If they are held without a power play goal, it’s anyone’s game. UND 3, Yale 2.

If history is any indication, a regional matchup against Niagara in Grand Rapids bodes well for North Dakota.

The only time UND has appeared in an NCAA tournament game in Grand Rapids was in 1996-97, when the Fighting Sioux defeated the Big Red of Cornell 6-2 in the national quarterfinal. The win propelled UND to the Frozen Four in Milwaukee, WI, where North Dakota claimed its sixth national title.

And the only time the Green and White faced the Purple Eagles in the national tournament, UND won 4-1 to earn a berth in the Frozen Four, where North Dakota went on to win its seventh NCAA championship.

This game features three of the ten Hobey Baker finalists: Niagara’s junior goaltender Carsen Chubak, who leads the nation with six shutouts, and North Dakota’s pair of senior forwards, linemates Danny Kristo and Corban Knight. Kristo and Knight have combined for 305 career points, the top scoring duo in the country.

UND leads the country with eleven consecutive NCAA appearances and is appearing in the national tournament for the 28th time in program history. By comparison, Niagara is making its fourth tourney bid in its 17th season at the Division I level. The Purple Eagles first competed at the highest level of college hockey in 1996-97, a championship season for North Dakota.

Niagara Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Burkholder (12th season at NU, 214-174-50, .546)
Pairwise Ranking: t-9th
National Ranking: #14
This Season: 23-9-5 overall, 20-5-2 Atlantic Hockey (1st)
Last Season: 17-11-9 overall, 14-6-7 Atlantic Hockey (2nd)
Team Offense: 3.11 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.51 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.3% (22 of 144)
Penalty Kill: 83.9% (141 of 168)

Key Players: Junior F Ryan Murphy (15-21-36), Senior F Giancarlo Iuorio (21-13-34), Senior F Marc Zanette (10-18-28), Junior D Kevin Ryan (1-23-24), Senior D C.J. Chartrain (2-11-13), Junior G Carsen Chubak (23-6-5, 1.91 GAA, .938 SV%, 6 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 234-118-37, .654)
Pairwise Ranking: 8th
National Ranking: #7
This Season: 21-12-7 overall, 14-7-7 WCHA (3rd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.30 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.45 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.5% (32 of 156)
Penalty Kill: 83.6% (122 of 146)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (15-33-48), Senior F Danny Kristo (25-26-51), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (13-12-25), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (13-22-35), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-11-15), Junior D Dillon Simpson (5-19-24), Junior G Clarke Saunders (13-8-4, 2.26 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 2, 2010 (Hoffman Estates, IL). In the opening game of Notre Dame’s Shillelagh Tournament, Evan Trupp scored a pivotal third period goal for UND after Niagara got within one with nine minutes remaining. Trupp also assisted on Brett Hextall’s first period goal.

Last Meeting in the NCAA tournament: March 25, 2000 (Minneapolis, MN). Jeff Panzer tallied three assists to lead North Dakota to a 4-1 victory over the Purple Eagles at Mariucci Arena. UND forward Lee Goren scored early in the third period after NU cut the lead to 2-1 in the middle frame. Andy Kollar made 26 saves for the Fighting Sioux, who outshot Niagara 43-27.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series 4-0 and has outscored the Purple Eagles 18-9.

Game News and Notes

Niagara is 0-3 all-time in the NCAA tournament and has been outscored 14-4. North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol is 11-3 in NCAA regional games. The Purple Eagles went 15-0-2 at home this season, but only 8-9-3 on the road or on neutral ice.

The Prediction

The first ten minutes will be key for both teams. Niagara will hope to survive the opening flurry, while UND will look to play its style from the drop of the puck. Goaltending and officiating will be key, but North Dakota should win this one and advance to the regional final. UND 3, Niagara 1.

Bonus Prediction

In the other regional semifinal, Yale will draw first blood in the second period after a scoreless opening frame. The Gophers will pull away late, setting up a rematch of last season. Minnesota 4, Yale 2.

Everyone’s favorite hockey ranking scheme, KRACH, can be used to predict likelihoods of game outcomes. So, without further ado, here’s what KRACH says the likelihood of each team winning each round is.

The Midwest region is most balanced, but the brutal schedules actually make it less likely (22.7%) that the champ will emerge from that region than the lopsided East (28%).

The most lopsided is the East, with QU favored by KRACH to have an 84% chance of beating Canisius. What a difference seeding makes — QU is given an 18.7% chance of winning it all vs. Minnesota’s 14.9%, despite Minnesota just eking out the KRACH edge over Quinnipiac.

Both #2 New Hampshire and #2 Miami are actually underdogs to their WCHA 3-seed foes, Denver and MSU-Mankato, respectively.

KRACH	West	Game 1	Game 2 (Region Champ)	Game 3 (Frozen four semifinal)	Game 4 (National Champ)
157.487	1. Minnesota	65.64%	42.99%	25.75%	14.86%
82.4324	4. Yale	34.36%	17.21%	7.56%	3.17%
100	2. North Dakota	63.02%	27.94%	13.61%	6.34%
58.6682	3. Niagara	36.98%	11.87%	4.25%	1.45%
	Northeast
127.142	1. Mass.-Lowell	56.72%	32.35%	17.27%	9.07%
97.0033	4. Wisconsin	43.28%	21.77%	10.20%	4.68%
92.3517	2. New Hampshire	48.24%	21.69%	9.90%	4.42%
99.1066	3. Denver	51.76%	24.18%	11.45%	5.31%
	East
157.423	1. Quinnipiac	83.83%	53.06%	31.97%	18.67%
30.3748	4. Canisius	16.17%	4.05%	0.92%	0.20%
100.909	2. Boston College	55.73%	25.17%	12.41%	5.90%
80.1731	3. Union	44.27%	17.72%	7.72%	3.24%
	Midwest
111.145	1. Notre Dame	55.05%	28.24%	13.73%	6.85%
90.736	4. St. Cloud St	44.95%	20.78%	9.09%	4.09%
105.133	2. Miami (OH)	49.82%	25.35%	11.99%	5.82%
105.899	3. Minnesota St	50.18%	25.63%	12.16%	5.93%

I sometimes include a look at the previous week’s forecasts in my weekly posts, but I don’t think I’ve ever done a formal review of the forecasts at the end of the year before. Given the volatility of PWR, it sometimes seems kind of hard to believe that we can predict tight curves for where teams are likely to end up 10-12 games out, so a review of my success definitely seems in order.

Also, with the conference tournament results in, I’ll take a look at the nagging question of weighted vs unweighted forecasts for the conference tournaments.

A look back the big predictions

On January 15 in A first look at the NCAA hockey Pairwise Rankings I included this chart:

UND went 6-4-4 and emerged #7 in the PWR on March 4 (see Ranking trend charts). That outcome is right on the high end of the thick part of the curve for “Win 8”, which is the closest equivalent to win 6 and tie 4, so the forecast was pretty much spot on.

On the same day, I posted this chart of Minnesota:

The Gophers went 8-4-2 and were #2 in the PWR since mid-January. That’s just on the high side for “Win 10”. The forecast would have led readers to expect a ranking more in the range of 4-5 (between the Win 8 and Win 10 curves) for that performance.

On February 21, I posted this update for Minnesota:

By then it was more clear that Minnesota was sewing up the #2 spot. Indeed, Minnesota went 4-1-1 and finished #2.

Also on February 21, I posted this chart of Boston University:

They went 4-3 and were #16 in the PWR on March 11.

I also noted that Providence had some upside potential but needed to win.

Providence went 4-0-2 and finished #21 on March 11.

On weighted vs. unweighted conference tournament projections

There were some good questions asked about why I post the raw remaining possibilities for conference tournaments instead of weighted probabilities.

I responded that the real reason I do it is because the possibilities are factual, while the probabilities are sort of subjective. But, I also noted that: 1) it doesn’t matter much (conference tournament pairings tend to be of similar strength teams), and 2) KRACH didn’t really reflect the “hot” teams that tend to outperform in the conference tournaments.

After seeing QU lay an egg, CC go on a tear, and Michigan continue its hot streak, I thought it would be fun to run these numbers.

Team 1	Team 2	Team 1 KRACH	Team 2 KRACH	Predicted Winner	Predicted Win Percentage	Actual Winner	Prediction correct?
Niagara	Canisius	60.0463	25.3254	Niagara	70%	Canisius
Mercyhurst	Connectictut	28.7672	34.8	Connectictut	55%	Mercyhurst
Canisius	Mercyhurst	25.3254	28.7672	Mercyhurst	53%	Canisius
Miami	Michigan	106.036	47.7859	Miami	69%	Michigan
Ohio State	Notre Dame	54.5277	97.1286	Notre Dame	64%	Notre Dame	Yes
Michigan	Notre Dame	47.7859	97.1286	Notre Dame	67%	Notre Dame	Yes
Quinnipiac	Brown	158.707	53.8762	Quinnipiac	75%	Brown
Union	Yale	68.2106	87.5804	Yale	56%	Union
Brown	Union	53.8762	68.2106	Union	56%	Union	Yes
Quinnipiac	Yale	158.707	87.5804	Quinnipiac	64%	Quinnipiac	Yes
Mass.-Lowell	Providence	109.609	74.2102	Mass.-Lowell	60%	Mass.-Lowell	Yes
Boston University	Boston College	70.2589	103.267	Boston College	60%	Boston University
Mass.-Lowell	Boston University	109.609	70.2589	Mass.-Lowell	61%	Mass.-Lowell	Yes
St. Cloud State	Wisconsin	90.3013	78.0123	St. Cloud State	54%	Wisconsin
Colorado College	Minnesota	58.256	162.307	Minnesota	74%	Colorado College
Wisconsin	Colorado College	78.0123	58.256	Wisconsin	57%	Wisconsin	Yes
North Dakota	Colorado College	100	58.256	North Dakota	63%	Colorado College
Minnesota State	Wisconsin	106.123	78.0123	Minnesota State	58%	Wisconsin

KRACH predicted 7 of 18 games correctly. Given the small sample, I’m happy to call that a coin flip. Somewhat amusingly, it missed on the four largest.

Conclusions

The forecasts seem grounded in reality and really do seem to provide pretty useful information.

Despite my note above about KRACH and tournaments, I’ll still probably post my annual “KRACH predicts the NCAAs”, and that will be it for this season. I’ve got lots of great ideas for next year, so hopefully I’ll find the time to get some of them implemented, and I’ll see you then!