#17 North Dakota fell a couple spots with a split last weekend (the fall was consistent with my prediction for what would happen in a split), and continues to face more downside than upside.

A split this weekend would most likely drop UND a couple more spots, while getting swept could cause UND to plummet into the mid-20s. A sweep would do a little better than making up the ground lost last weekend, likely landing UND in the 13-15 range.

UNDoneweek

PWR calculation details

Readers of this blog probably already know that the RPI and PWR formulas for hockey changed this year. As I mentioned in a previous column—Dueling PWRs—there are currently two different interpretations of the new formulas. USCHO and CollegeHockeyNews implement the home/away weightings for RPI a bit differently.

After this post, unless otherwise stated this blog uses the CHN implementation. UND fares slightly better under the CHN implementation.

UND PWR forecast using the CHN PWR implementation

UNDendofseason

UND PWR forecast using the USCHO PWR implementation

UNDendofseasonUSCHO

I will continue to monitor both and highlight any significant differences in future posts.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

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