A fork in the road for UND’s NCAA tournament chances

My last full season prediction for UND, in February 25’s No surprises in UND’s PWR Outlook, suggested that UND needed 2 of its 4 remaining games to stay positioned for an at-large NCAA berth. UND closed the season with two splits and landed at a PWR ranking of #10.

Because UND did just barely enough to stay above the bubble, it can’t rest on its laurels. Elimination this round (in either 2 or 3 games) would push UND back onto the bubble, most likely toward the bottom.

That wouldn’t spell the end of UND’s season by any stretch: UND could get lucky and land in the upper #11-13 range based on other teams’ outcomes, or most conference tournaments could be won by higher ranked teams allowing #14 or even #15 in at-large, or unexpected future developments could raise UND’s PWR ranking even after UND has stopped playing.

But, far safer would be for UND to come out of this weekend with two wins. That still wouldn’t quite assure UND an at-large bid (as low as #13 or #14 after two wins this weekend would be possible with some bad luck), but they would be on the inside hoping not to fall instead of on the outside hoping to rise.


Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.


2 thoughts on “A fork in the road for UND’s NCAA tournament chances”

  1. Do you know which internet radio stations carries the game. Been trying for some time to find it.

Leave a Reply