No surprises in UND’s PWR outlook

Three weeks ago in UND’s PWR outlook with 10 games to go, I predicted that UND needed to win 7 of its remaining 10 regular season games “to be in a comfortable position for an at large bid going into the conference tournaments”.

UND proceeded to win 5 of its next 6 games, and has just 4 remaining in the regular season. The forecast remains remarkably consistent—UND now seems to need to win just 2 more games to go into the conference tournament in position for an at-large bid. Even just 1 more win would put UND on the bubble, with the conference tournament providing ample opportunity to rise off the bubble.


This week’s outlook

#10 UND is positioned to stay about the same with a split, most likely climb to #5-#7 with a sweep, or fall to #12-#14 if swept. Note that coming out of the weekend at #4 is possible, though it would take a lot of help.



Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.


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