Author: Jim Dahl

KRACH predicts the NCAA hockey touranment

Everyone’s favorite college hockey ranking system, KRACH, has the nice feature that it can be used to assign probabilities to potential matchups.

Here’s what KRACH’s forecast for the odds for each team emerging as the winner of each round the NCAA Ice Hockey tournament:

KRACH   Game 1 Game 2
(Region
Champ)		 Game 3
(Frozen four
semifinal)		 Game 4
(National
Champ)
  West        
100 1. North Dakota 52.74% 28.36% 13.03% 6.89%
89.6042 4. Western Michigan 47.26% 24.12% 10.45% 5.24%
           
84.9926 2. Minnesota 49.43% 23.35% 9.82% 4.79%
86.9526 3. Boston U. 50.57% 24.17% 10.30% 5.09%
           
  Northeast        
154.831 1. Boston College 87.67% 55.51% 35.01% 22.18%
21.7819 4. Air Force 12.33% 2.41% 0.47% 0.09%
           
91.1404 2. Minn. Duluth 50.81% 21.56% 10.81% 5.47%
88.2171 3. Maine 49.19% 20.52% 10.12% 5.03%
           
  East        
71.9621 1. Union 47.27% 21.03% 9.29% 3.72%
80.2812 4. Michigan St 52.73% 24.89% 11.65% 4.97%
           
97.2908 2. Miami (OH) 54.35% 30.47% 15.71% 7.43%
81.7069 3. Mass.-Lowell 45.65% 23.61% 11.16% 4.81%
           
  Midwest        
114.097 1. Michigan 70.06% 39.72% 22.92% 11.74%
48.7625 4. Cornell 29.94% 10.74% 3.96% 1.24%
           
91.2115 2. Ferris St. 52.39% 26.53% 13.84% 6.33%
82.9009 3. Denver 47.61% 23.01% 11.46% 4.98%

A few observations:
* UND’s predicted 53% chance of winning the opening round game is lower than any 1 seed in the previous 4 years I’ve been doing this
* Union is even worse off, not even favored to win its 1 vs 4 matchup
* Similarly, 2 seed Minnesota is an underdog to Boston University
* The largest line in any 2 vs 3 matchup is 54%-46%, Miami over Mass.-Lowell

Friday night final PWR outlook

Again, I can’t stress enough how experimental the “tournament invites” line is.

Here are the PWR possibilities that seem to remain (as always, assuming RPI is the tie-breaker)…

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall If team
wins none		 If team
wins all
Boston College 1 100.0%
Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)		 1 100.0% 1 100.0%
Michigan 2 100.0%
Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)		 2 100.0% 2 100.0%
Miami 3 2.4%
4 11.8%
5 11.5%
6 4.9%
7 2.1%
8 17.7%
9 20.8%
10 10.4%
11 11.5%
12 6.9%
Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)		 8 25.5%
9 31.3%
10 15.6%
11 17.2%
12 10.4%		 3 7.3%
4 35.4%
5 34.4%
6 14.6%
7 6.3%
8 2.1%
UMD 6 11.5%
7 42.0%
8 36.5%
9 10.1%
Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)		 n/a n/a
Ferris State 4 31.3%
5 38.9%
6 17.7%
7 9.4%
8 2.8%
Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)		 n/a n/a
Boston University 7 2.4%
8 9.7%
9 24.0%
10 33.7%
11 18.4%
12 11.8%
Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)		 n/a n/a
UMN 6 8.0%
7 15.3%
8 26.4%
9 28.1%
10 18.4%
11 3.8%
Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)		 n/a n/a
Maine 3 10.1%
4 8.3%
5 19.1%
6 10.8%
7 1.7%
8 0.0%
9 7.6%
10 17.4%
11 22.2%
12 2.8%
Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)		 9 15.3%
10 34.7%
11 44.4%
12 5.6%		 3 20.1%
4 16.7%
5 38.2%
6 21.5%
7 3.5%
UND 3 25.0%
4 25.7%
5 6.9%
6 18.1%
7 19.4%
8 4.9%
Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)		 4 1.4%
5 13.9%
6 36.1%
7 38.9%
8 9.7%		 3 50.0%
4 50.0%
Mass.-Lowell 8 0.7%
9 4.5%
10 8.0%
11 11.5%
12 75.3%
Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)		 n/a n/a
Michigan State 13 24.3%
14 24.7%
15 37.5%
16 9.0%
17 4.5%
Tournament invites: 189 (65.6%)		 n/a n/a
Western Michigan 13 34.0%
14 41.3%
15 24.7%
Tournament invites: 252 (87.5%)		 13 1.4%
14 49.3%
15 49.3%		 13 66.7%
14 33.3%
Denver 3 12.5%
4 13.2%
5 11.8%
6 12.5%
7 0.0%
8 0.0%
9 3.5%
10 11.5%
11 31.9%
12 3.1%
Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)		 9 6.9%
10 22.9%
11 63.9%
12 6.3%		 3 25.0%
4 26.4%
5 23.6%
6 25.0%
Northern Michigan 14 9.0%
15 32.6%
16 57.6%
17 0.7%
Tournament invites: 73 (25.3%)		 n/a n/a
Union 3 50.0%
4 9.7%
5 11.8%
6 16.7%
7 7.6%
8 1.4%
9 1.4%
10 0.7%
11 0.7%
Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)		 4 19.4%
5 23.6%
6 33.3%
7 15.3%
8 2.8%
9 2.8%
10 1.4%
11 1.4%		 3 100.0%
Merrimack 15 5.2%
16 33.3%
17 58.0%
18 3.5%
Tournament invites: 14 (4.9%)		 n/a n/a
SCSU 23 12.5%
24 54.2%
25 33.3%
Tournament invites: 0 (0.0%)		 n/a n/a
Cornell 13 41.7%
14 25.0%
15 0.0%
16 0.0%
17 33.3%
Tournament invites: 192 (66.7%)		 13 12.5%
14 37.5%
15 0.0%
16 0.0%
17 50.0%		 13 100.0%
Harvard 17 3.5%
18 28.8%
19 26.0%
20 35.1%
21 6.6%
Tournament invites: 144 (50.0%)		 19 16.7%
20 70.1%
21 13.2%		 17 6.9%
18 57.6%
19 35.4%

Friday night break PWR update

Here’s a quick PairWise Rankings update at the break in action.

At the request of some gentlemen on the USCHO forum I’ve tried adding a probability of making the tournament statistic. It’s based on a combination of the team’s rank and the number of non top 16 autoqualifiers in each scenario. When perfected, it should provide some really useful information, but I just whipped it up this afternoon and it has not been through much quality control so for now should definitely be treated as experimental and not quoted.

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall If team
wins none		 If team
wins all
Boston College 1 75.0%
2 25.0%
Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)		 1 75.0%
2 25.0%		 1 75.0%
2 25.0%
Michigan 2 66.0%
3 29.0%
4 4.2%
5 0.8%
Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)		 2 47.9%
3 37.1%
4 12.5%
5 2.5%		 2 75.0%
3 25.0%
Miami 3 0.2%
4 3.0%
5 7.9%
6 9.5%
7 12.6%
8 16.5%
9 14.1%
10 16.6%
11 15.4%
12 4.1%
13 0.2%
Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)		 7 6.2%
8 19.2%
9 20.5%
10 24.8%
11 23.0%
12 6.1%
13 0.3%		 3 0.7%
4 8.9%
5 23.7%
6 28.5%
7 25.5%
8 11.1%
9 1.4%
10 0.3%
UMD 1 25.0%
2 0.0%
3 3.0%
4 7.9%
5 13.4%
6 10.2%
7 19.5%
8 16.0%
9 4.6%
10 0.3%
11 0.0%
Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)		 5 1.9%
6 17.1%
7 39.0%
8 31.9%
9 9.3%
10 0.7%
11 0.1%		 1 100.0%
Ferris State 3 3.4%
4 16.0%
5 32.5%
6 30.8%
7 14.7%
8 2.5%
9 0.1%
Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)		 n/a n/a
Boston University 2 4.0%
3 20.1%
4 12.8%
5 6.4%
6 3.8%
7 4.6%
8 10.8%
9 16.9%
10 11.7%
11 5.9%
12 2.5%
13 0.4%
Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)		 7 4.9%
8 20.3%
9 33.7%
10 23.4%
11 11.9%
12 5.1%
13 0.8%		 2 16.1%
3 63.7%
4 20.2%
UMN 2 0.6%
3 12.8%
4 11.2%
5 7.4%
6 9.1%
7 13.9%
8 16.3%
9 15.0%
10 9.9%
11 3.5%
12 0.2%
Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)		 5 0.2%
6 2.6%
7 13.8%
8 27.7%
9 28.5%
10 19.8%
11 6.9%
12 0.5%		 2 2.5%
3 47.9%
4 36.7%
5 9.4%
6 2.7%
7 0.9%
Maine 3 2.5%
4 6.3%
5 9.1%
6 4.8%
7 2.3%
8 1.2%
9 4.0%
10 12.6%
11 20.9%
12 24.6%
13 11.2%
14 0.5%
Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)		 10 0.0%
11 29.7%
12 47.1%
13 22.2%
14 0.9%		 3 9.9%
4 25.2%
5 36.5%
6 19.3%
7 9.0%
UND 2 0.7%
3 8.6%
4 13.6%
5 2.8%
6 4.7%
7 7.7%
8 9.2%
9 13.9%
10 20.0%
11 15.6%
12 3.0%
Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)		 7 1.1%
8 6.6%
9 20.7%
10 35.5%
11 30.3%
12 5.8%		 2 2.9%
3 34.5%
4 54.3%
5 8.3%
Mass.-Lowell 6 1.1%
7 4.8%
8 11.8%
9 16.4%
10 13.7%
11 22.2%
12 23.4%
13 6.4%
14 0.3%
Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)		 n/a n/a
Michigan State 13 9.5%
14 31.3%
15 49.5%
16 4.5%
17 5.3%
Tournament invites: 12560 (68.1%)		 n/a n/a
Western Michigan 9 0.0%
10 0.4%
11 3.1%
12 8.4%
13 24.9%
14 39.4%
15 23.9%
Tournament invites: 15698 (85.2%)		 13 6.5%
14 45.7%
15 47.8%		 9 0.0%
10 0.8%
11 6.2%
12 16.7%
13 43.3%
14 33.0%
Denver 3 2.7%
4 4.7%
5 6.6%
6 8.8%
7 2.0%
8 1.3%
9 3.1%
10 7.8%
11 11.5%
12 29.5%
13 17.1%
14 5.0%
Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)		 11 1.9%
12 53.9%
13 34.1%
14 10.0%		 3 10.9%
4 18.8%
5 26.3%
6 35.0%
7 7.8%
8 1.2%
Northern Michigan 14 2.2%
15 23.3%
16 74.1%
17 0.4%
Tournament invites: 2808 (15.2%)		 n/a n/a
Union 2 3.7%
3 17.7%
4 20.0%
5 10.2%
6 9.3%
7 10.1%
8 10.2%
9 10.2%
10 6.6%
11 1.9%
12 0.2%
Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)		 4 2.1%
5 6.5%
6 13.8%
7 19.2%
8 20.3%
9 20.4%
10 13.3%
11 3.9%
12 0.4%		 2 7.3%
3 35.4%
4 37.9%
5 13.8%
6 4.7%
7 0.9%
Merrimack 15 0.6%
16 12.4%
17 74.3%
18 12.7%
Tournament invites: 106 (0.6%)		 n/a n/a
SCSU 21 0.7%
22 14.0%
23 44.2%
24 32.7%
25 8.5%
Tournament invites: 0 (0.0%)		 n/a n/a
Cornell 4 0.4%
5 2.8%
6 7.9%
7 7.9%
8 4.3%
9 1.6%
10 0.3%
11 0.0%
12 4.2%
13 30.4%
14 21.3%
15 2.6%
16 8.4%
17 8.1%
18 0.0%
Tournament invites: 14908 (80.9%)		 13 15.3%
14 27.3%
15 7.7%
16 25.2%
17 24.4%
18 0.0%		 4 1.7%
5 11.0%
6 31.4%
7 31.4%
8 17.2%
9 6.3%
10 1.0%
Harvard 15 0.2%
16 0.7%
17 11.8%
18 4.1%
19 31.4%
20 13.9%
21 3.5%
22 1.2%
23 4.1%
24 4.1%
25 9.0%
26 5.9%
27 9.9%
Tournament invites: 4608 (25.0%)		 22 0.8%
23 12.1%
24 12.3%
25 27.1%
26 17.8%
27 29.8%		 15 0.6%
16 2.8%
17 47.4%
18 16.3%
19 32.9%

Thursday night PWR possibilties update, Sioux seem a lock for NCAAs

The Sioux now seem a lock for the NCAA championship and St. Cloud State’s season is done.

With Mich. Tech and St. Cloud both eliminated, it seems the WCHA can only be won by a team in the top 16, thus only 4 slots can be taken by autobids outside the top 16. So, #12 in the PairWise Rankings should be safe.

Remembering from the Deeper dive into whether UND will make the NCAA tournament that UND can do no worse than #12 after defeating St. Cloud, the Sioux now seem a lock for the NCAA tournament.

Here are the remaining possibilities for the key 19:

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall Win none Win all
Boston College 1 76.0%
2 23.5%
3 0.5%		 1 76.3%
2 23.7%		 1 76.9%
2 23.1%
Michigan 1 0.3%
2 65.2%
3 27.9%
4 5.0%
5 1.4%
6 0.2%		 2 49.4%
3 33.3%
4 12.4%
5 4.3%
6 0.6%		 2 75.0%
3 25.0%
Miami 1 0.3%
2 2.7%
3 16.6%
4 15.3%
5 13.0%
6 12.5%
7 10.4%
8 8.6%
9 7.4%
10 7.1%
11 5.0%
12 1.2%
13 0.1%		 5 0.1%
6 3.3%
7 13.9%
8 21.0%
9 21.8%
10 21.2%
11 14.9%
12 3.5%
13 0.2%		 1 1.2%
2 10.7%
3 56.9%
4 28.1%
5 2.9%
6 0.2%
UMD 1 23.4%
2 2.7%
3 3.0%
4 8.8%
5 13.6%
6 13.0%
7 16.6%
8 13.4%
9 4.6%
10 0.8%
11 0.1%		 3 0.0%
4 1.7%
5 8.5%
6 19.7%
7 32.4%
8 26.7%
9 9.1%
10 1.6%
11 0.3%		 1 93.6%
2 6.4%
Ferris State 3 5.5%
4 17.6%
5 29.0%
6 28.8%
7 14.9%
8 4.0%
9 0.3%		 n/a n/a
Boston University 2 3.1%
3 13.6%
4 10.2%
5 7.3%
6 7.7%
7 10.8%
8 15.3%
9 16.0%
10 10.4%
11 4.4%
12 1.1%
13 0.1%		 5 0.0%
6 1.1%
7 10.6%
8 25.5%
9 30.8%
10 20.7%
11 8.7%
12 2.3%
13 0.3%		 2 12.5%
3 49.5%
4 29.5%
5 7.3%
6 1.1%
7 0.1%
UMN 2 0.6%
3 12.2%
4 12.2%
5 8.1%
6 7.7%
7 11.9%
8 17.2%
9 17.4%
10 9.7%
11 2.7%
12 0.3%
13 0.0%		 5 0.1%
6 2.5%
7 12.0%
8 27.2%
9 32.9%
10 19.3%
11 5.4%
12 0.5%
13 0.0%		 2 2.2%
3 45.2%
4 37.3%
5 12.8%
6 1.9%
7 0.5%
8 0.1%
Maine 3 1.0%
4 5.3%
5 8.7%
6 7.5%
7 2.6%
8 1.2%
9 4.9%
10 13.7%
11 24.0%
12 22.9%
13 8.1%
14 0.2%		 10 5.9%
11 34.7%
12 42.9%
13 16.1%
14 0.4%		 3 3.8%
4 21.2%
5 34.8%
6 29.8%
7 9.9%
8 0.4%
9 0.0%
UND 2 0.5%
3 10.0%
4 10.4%
5 4.3%
6 4.1%
7 7.1%
8 11.0%
9 19.1%
10 20.1%
11 11.6%
12 1.8%		 6 0.1%
7 1.8%
8 10.8%
9 27.6%
10 34.4%
11 21.7%
12 3.6%		 2 1.9%
3 40.1%
4 41.7%
5 14.5%
6 1.8%
7 0.1%
Mass.-Lowell 6 0.6%
7 3.8%
8 10.6%
9 12.3%
10 17.3%
11 27.8%
12 22.0%
13 5.5%
14 0.1%		 n/a n/a
Michigan State 13 11.4%
14 40.7%
15 38.4%
16 4.2%
17 5.3%		 n/a n/a
Western Michigan 9 0.0%
10 0.2%
11 1.7%
12 3.7%
13 13.5%
14 33.7%
15 22.6%
16 16.6%
17 8.0%		 13 1.2%
14 8.9%
15 16.2%
16 49.8%
17 23.9%		 9 0.0%
10 0.7%
11 6.8%
12 14.8%
13 35.5%
14 42.3%
Denver 3 2.1%
4 4.9%
5 7.3%
6 6.6%
7 3.6%
8 1.5%
9 4.1%
10 9.0%
11 11.8%
12 31.0%
13 15.0%
14 3.0%		 10 0.0%
11 5.9%
12 58.1%
13 29.8%
14 6.1%		 3 8.6%
4 19.7%
5 29.2%
6 26.3%
7 13.9%
8 2.2%
9 0.1%
Northern Michigan 13 1.4%
14 10.4%
15 32.5%
16 55.6%
17 0.1%		 n/a n/a
Union 2 1.8%
3 7.6%
4 10.0%
5 6.2%
6 6.8%
7 9.5%
8 10.0%
9 11.4%
10 11.4%
11 7.6%
12 6.1%
13 11.4%
14 0.3%		 6 0.0%
7 0.2%
8 1.8%
9 9.3%
10 18.1%
11 17.7%
12 17.8%
13 34.3%
14 0.8%		 2 7.1%
3 30.4%
4 38.2%
5 17.5%
6 5.4%
7 1.3%
8 0.1%
Merrimack 14 0.0%
15 1.3%
16 15.6%
17 72.2%
18 11.0%		 n/a n/a
SCSU 20 0.0%
21 0.7%
22 13.1%
23 43.9%
24 29.3%
25 11.8%
26 1.3%		 n/a n/a
Cornell 4 0.2%
5 1.2%
6 4.6%
7 9.0%
8 7.3%
9 2.5%
10 0.3%
11 3.4%
12 9.8%
13 33.5%
14 11.5%
15 5.2%
16 7.8%
17 3.8%
18 0.0%		 12 0.7%
13 24.9%
14 23.9%
15 15.5%
16 23.5%
17 11.5%
18 0.0%		 4 0.8%
5 4.7%
6 18.2%
7 35.9%
8 29.2%
9 10.0%
10 1.3%
11 0.0%
Harvard 15 0.0%
16 0.2%
17 10.7%
18 2.9%
19 23.2%
20 13.7%
21 11.7%
22 2.6%
23 4.6%
24 6.7%
25 7.4%
26 8.5%
27 7.8%
28 0.0%		 22 1.8%
23 8.8%
24 18.3%
25 22.2%
26 25.6%
27 23.3%
28 0.0%		 15 0.1%
16 0.9%
17 42.8%
18 11.4%
19 44.7%

A look at Denver’s NCAA chances

Denver is well-positioned to make the NCAA tournament. Winning a game or two would make it a near certainty, though losing in the opening round would still leave the Pioneers with a better than 50% chance of advancing.

Denver’s possible final PWR
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.4%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31.8%
6 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 25.4%
7 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.8%
8 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 1.1%
9 0.0% 0.2% 19.5% 0.0%
10 1.3% 7.3% 39.0% 0.0%
11 12.1% 28.1% 30.2% 0.0%
12 37.3% 41.5% 5.2% 0.0%
13 36.0% 19.2% 0.1% 0.0%
14 13.4% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%

Because Denver has some potential rankings that are on the bubble, Denver does have an interest in a limited number of conferences being won by teams that won’t be in the top 16. Lists of those are available in previous articles, such as A detailed look at NMU’s chances.

Case-by-case possibilities for Denver’s PWR

Because Denver still have games to play, those are the biggest determinants of Denver’s final ranking.

If Denver makes it to the championship game vs. Minnesota or St. Cloud, the Pioneers will finish at worst #12, good enough to make the NCAA tournament (since the WCHA will be won by a team in the top 16).

Denver PWR if advances to championship game vs. Minnesota or St. Cloud
PWR Lose
Championship		 Win
Championship
3 0.00% 7.50%
4 0.00% 20.04%
5 0.00% 31.32%
6 0.07% 27.87%
7 1.28% 11.75%
8 6.47% 1.49%
9 23.29% 0.03%
10 41.14% 0.00%
11 24.77% 0.00%
12 2.99% 0.00%

However, if Denver makes it to the championship game vs. UND, the Pioneers could finish #13 if they lose. Again, the WCHA would be won by a team in the top 16, so the only way #13 would miss is if all the other conferences were won by teams outside the top 16. Though possible, that’s a very unlikely scenario — in outcomes in which the Pioneers face UND in the championship game and lose, about .3% of them leave Denver out of the NCAA tournament.

Denver PWR if advances to championship game vs. UND
PWR Lose
Championship		 Win
Championship
3 0 5717
4 0 10894
5 0 12259
6 0 6597
7 17 1397
8 295 0
9 2980 0
10 11967 0
11 17097 0
12 4378 0
13 130 0

If Denver wins its opening game but then loses to Duluth, #12-#14 are distinctly possible. In that scenario, Denver would care most about tournaments being won by teams in the top 16 so #12 and #13 make the tournament. Paradoxically, in terms of final PWR ranking, Denver would be most helped in this situation by St. Cloud St knocking off UND (though there then would be the accompanying risk of SCSU taking the WCHA championship and a slot). Denver is currently holding onto the UND comparison by an RPI thread.

Denver PWR if loses to Minnesota-Duluth
PWR Likelihood
9 0.2%
10 7.3%
11 28.1%
12 41.5%
13 19.2%
14 3.8%

Finally, if Denver loses the opening round, the Pioneers are most likely to finish #12-#14 (as can be seen in the table at the top of this article). In those situations, Denver would again mostly he hoping teams in the top 16 win all the conferences.

There are, otherwise, a lot of combinations that land Denver in the 9-12 range instead of 13-14. Most reliable is Miami defeating Western Michigan and Harvard defeating Cornell.

Denver PWR if loses to Mich. Tech, Miami defeats W. Michigan, and Harvard defeats Cornell
PWR Likelihood
10 2.3%
11 23.3%
12 63.3%
13 11.0%

My apologies for any omissions, this one was a bit rushed to get it out before the games begin!

A detailed look at NMU’s chances

Assuming all game outcomes are equally likely, Northern Michigan stands something like a 15% chance of making that tournament.

From my previous PWR possibilities article, Northern Michigan’s overall possible final PWR rankings:

Possible PWR outcomes for NMU
PWR Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios
13 15297 1.3%
14 120251 10.2%
15 388264 32.9%
16 610668 51.8%
17 45168 3.8%

Because 13-16 are all on the bubble, it’s most important for Northern Michigan that a limited number of conferences are won by teams that won’t be in the top 16.

Again, those are:

WCHA (2/6)
Michigan Tech
St. Cloud St

Hockey East (1/4)
Providence

ECAC (2/4)
Harvard
Colgate

CCHA (1/4)
Bowling Green

Atlantic Hockey (4/4)
RIT
Niagara
Mercyhurst
Air Force

So, while every conference could conceivably be won by a team not in the top 16, only Atlantic Hockey is guaranteed to be so. So, the last at-large team will be somewhere between PWR 11 and 15. If 3 conferences are won by non-top 16, #13 in the PWR will be in. If 2 conferences are won by non-top 16, #14 PWR will be in. If only AHA is won by a non-top 16, #15 PWR will be in.

Odds of NMU advancing, based on final PWR rank
PWR Odds of NMU
having rank		 Odds of
rank advancing		 Odds of
rank or
better advancing		 Odds of
NMU advancing
via this scenario
15 32.90% 18.75% 18.8% 6.169%
14 10.20% 40.63% 59.4% 6.056%
13 1.30% 30.21% 89.6% 1.165%
12 9.4% 99.0%
11 1.0% 100.0%
Total odds of NMU advancing 13.39%

Note that the odds of each rank advancing assume that each team has an equal shot at winning each game; in other words, they’re actually the share of outcomes in which each rank advances. That table also naively assumes the outcomes that determine NMU’s final PWR are completely independent from the outcomes that determine which PWR ranks advance. That is, of course, not true. But, because none of the scenarios (described below) require unranked teams to advance, it’s a fine rough estimate.

What influences NMU’s final PWR

Because NMU doesn’t have any games remaining, the Wildcats are the mercy of others.

Looking at NMU’s PWR Details, there are two very obvious comparisons that NMU is currently losing but could take (because the comparison is close enough and the other team is still playing):

  • Cornell
  • Western Michigan

It’s also apparently helpful for RIT to defeat Air Force. It’s not immediately obviously why this is the case (both are TUCs over whom NMU is winning the comparison, but so are all the other teams NMU is trying to gain on), but the models say NMU finishes noticeably higher in those scenarios.

A deeper dive into the scenarios

Miami defeating Western Michigan is huge for NMU. Note that it would eliminate a huge number of the #16-17 scenarios, while preserving all of the #13 scenarios and most of the #14 scenarios.

PWR outcomes for NMU if Miami defeats Western Michigan
PWR Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios
13 15297 2.6%
14 102442 17.4%
15 246385 41.8%
16 200993 34.1%
17 24707 4.2%

Western Michigan losing a second game is also pretty helpful. It drops a big majority of the #16-#17 outcomes and about half of the #15. This isn’t completely necessary, in that about 1/3 of the #13 outcomes and about 40% of the #14 outcomes exist outside this scenario, but this is a very attractive scenario for NMU.

PWR outcomes for NMU if Western Michigan also loses the consolation game
  To Michigan   To Bowling Green
PWR Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios		   Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios
13 4992 5.1%   4992 5.1%
14 30630 31.2%   30685 31.2%
15 61242 62.3%   61153 62.2%
16 1440 1.5%   1474 1.5%

Harvard defeating Cornell looks useful for NMU. It eliminates a lot of the 15-17 scenarios while leaving most of the 13-14 scenarios in tact.

PWR outcomes for NMU if Harvard defeats Cornell
PWR Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios
13 15297 2.6%
14 75380 12.8%
15 221000 37.5%
16 257768 43.7%
17 20379 3.5%

However, what’s not obvious from that table is that almost all the good scenarios come about when Cornell loses a 2nd game and almost all the bad scenarios come about when Cornell wins the 2nd game (after losing the 1st).

PWR outcomes for NMU if Cornell also loses the consolation game
  To Union   To Colgate
PWR Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios		   Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios
13 12993 13.2%   2304 2.3%
14 30915 31.4%   29014 29.5%
15 48434 49.3%   66923 68.1%
16 5959 6.1%   63 0.1%
17 3 0.0%      

Note that I haven’t said anything about the RIT/Air Force outcome mentioned above. While it does indeed shift NMU’s chances of a 13-14 up quite a bit, about 2/3 of the #13 scenarios and 3/4 of the #14 scenarios exist outside of this outcome.

PWR outcomes for NMU if RIT defeats Niagara, Air Force defeats Mercyhurst, and RIT defeats Air Force
PWR Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios
13 4942 3.4%
14 30972 21.0%
15 54783 37.2%
16 53420 36.2%
17 3339 2.3%

So, Air Force defeating RIT is a nice outcome for NMU, but by no means necessary.

Too long, didn’t read

Bottom line? NMU’s best shot is for Cornell to lose twice and Western Michigan to lose at least once (though twice is a little better). That scenario includes all of the #13 possibilities, about 1/3 of the #14 possibilities, about 1/5 of the #15 possibilities, and a miniscule chance of being #16.

A deeper dive into whether UND will make the NCAA tournament

If UND wins the WCHA tournament, the Sioux will be ensured an NCAA tournament appearance.

If the Sioux bow out early, they will be at the mercy of their final PWR ranking and the outcomes of other conferences’ tournaments (which will determine how many teams get in on the basis of their PWR ranking).

The good news is that the Sioux are very well positioned, and would miss the NCAA tournament in only a few percent of the remaining possible scenarios. For (much) more detail on what it would take, read on.

How many teams will make the tournament at large?

16 teams total will make the tournament. The winners of each conference tournament are guaranteed a spot, then the remaining spots are filled with the top teams from the PWR Rankings.

So, if only 1 team that’s not in the top 16 wins a conference tournament, the top 15 in the PWR will make it. If 3 teams that aren’t in the top 16 win conference tournaments, the top 13 in PWR will also make it.

Here are the conference tournament participants, with those that could win without climbing to the top 16 in PWR marked.

WCHA
* Michigan Tech
Denver
Minnesota Duluth
* St. Cloud St
North Dakota
Minnesota

Hockey East
Maine
Boston University
* Providence
Boston College

ECAC
* Harvard
Cornell
* Colgate
Union

CCHA
Miami
Western Michigan
* Bowling Green
Michigan

Atlantic Hockey
* RIT
* Niagara
* Mercyhurst
* Air Force

So, the PWR ranking a team needs to make the tournament at large is 16 minus however many conferences are won by teams marked above. 13 is generally a pretty good guess, but it could obviously vary.

If UND loses to St. Cloud

This scenario is, obviously, the one in which UND’s tournament chances are the most threatened.

UND PWR ranking share of outcomes if UND loses to SCSU
7 0%
8 0%
9 7%
10 26%
11 30%
12 28%
13 8%
14 1%
15 0%
16 0%

Fortunately, things still look pretty good for UND, even with this outcome. The odds of UND falling to 13, which is likely to be safe, are only 8%. In only about 1% of scenarios does UND fall to 14.

By far the game that matters most to UND in this scenario is BU defeating Maine.

UND PWR ranking share of outcomes if UND loses to SCSU, by BU/Maine outcome
UND Rank If BU
defeats Maine		 If Maine
defeats BU
7 0.0% 0.0%
8 0.2% 0.0%
9 14.6% 0.2%
10 42.3% 8.9%
11 33.5% 27.0%
12 9.0% 46.2%
13 0.5% 16.4%
14 0.0% 1.3%
15 0.0% 0.0%

Other outcomes that would help UND in this scenario include:

  • Michigan Tech over Denver
  • Harvard over Cornell
  • Harvard over Union
  • Colgate over Union
  • Michigan Tech over Minnesota-Duluth
  • Colgate over Cornell

Play with that information a bit in the YATC calculators and you should get a pretty good idea of what UND would need to have happen.

If UND defeats St. Cloud

UND PWR ranking share of outcomes if UND defeats SCSU
5 0.0%
6 0.1%
7 1.9%
8 12.7%
9 32.9%
10 35.8%
11 14.7%
12 1.8%
13 0.0%

This isn’t quite mathematically a lock. #12 can miss the tournament if all 5 conferences are won by a team not in the top 16. Since this scenario requires SCSU to be eliminated, the only remaining WCHA team that could win without being top 16 is Michigan Tech. Providence and Bowling Green are also the only teams capable of winning their conferences without rising into the top 16.

So, it appears that if the Sioux beat SCSU, they can only miss the tournament if Michigan Tech, Providence, and Bowling Green all win their conference tournaments and Harvard or Colgate win the ECAC.

If UND defeats St. Cloud and Minnesota

Given the above, Sioux fans are likely to expect this scenario to be a lock for UND. But, the entire fun of simulating all the outcomes is finding those unexpected niche outcomes.

UND PWR ranking share of outcomes if UND defeats SCSU and Minnesota
PWR UND loses
championship		 UND wins
championship
1 0.0% 0.00%
2 0.0% 1.92%
3 0.0% 41.07%
4 0.0% 42.22%
5 2.7% 13.42%
6 15.0% 1.34%
7 25.1% 0.03%
8 25.6% 0.00%
9 21.1% 0.00%
10 9.0% 0.00%
11 1.5% 0.00%
12 0.1% 0.00%
13 0.0% 0.00%

Surprisingly, this isn’t a lock either. Again, #12 can miss in some (very unlikely) scenarios.

However, more Sioux fans who have read this far are probably eying that (still slim) chance of finishing #2 overall.

Resources

NCAA hockey tournament selection / PWR possibilities

With only 19 games to go before the NCAA men’s ice hockey tournament selection, the You are the committee calculators are up and running.

I ran through the 1,179,648 remaining possible outcomes, so you don’t have to. The table below shows the percentage outcomes in which each team ends the season with each rank.

Note that this table does not weight the likelihood of outcomes as I usually do, rather this analysis treats all outcomes as equally likely. I’ll followup later with additional analysis that includes some probabilities, games to watch, and more in-depth analysis of UND’s potential scenarios. As always, drop me any requests if there are other questions you’d like answered.

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall Win none Win all
Boston College 1 79.8%
2 19.8%
3 0.4%		 1 81.0%
2 19.0%		 1 81.7%
2 18.3%
Michigan 1 0.2%
2 66.8%
3 27.1%
4 4.6%
5 1.1%
6 0.1%		 2 51.8%
3 33.3%
4 11.1%
5 3.4%
6 0.4%		 2 75.0%
3 25.0%
Miami 1 0.3%
2 2.7%
3 20.2%
4 15.3%
5 12.8%
6 12.6%
7 11.0%
8 9.5%
9 7.2%
10 5.4%
11 2.5%
12 0.5%
13 0.1%
14 0.0%		 4 0.0%
5 1.0%
6 8.0%
7 19.4%
8 25.1%
9 21.1%
10 16.3%
11 7.4%
12 1.5%
13 0.2%
14 0.0%		 1 1.3%
2 10.7%
3 61.2%
4 24.2%
5 2.5%
6 0.2%
UMD 1 19.7%
2 5.5%
3 5.0%
4 11.6%
5 16.4%
6 17.1%
7 15.1%
8 7.6%
9 1.7%
10 0.2%
11 0.0%		 3 1.2%
4 5.9%
5 16.3%
6 28.3%
7 29.2%
8 15.1%
9 3.5%
10 0.4%
11 0.1%		 1 78.7%
2 19.8%
3 0.3%
4 1.2%
Ferris State 3 7.7%
4 21.0%
5 30.6%
6 26.5%
7 11.5%
8 2.7%
9 0.2%
10 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Boston University 2 2.9%
3 14.9%
4 12.1%
5 8.5%
6 9.9%
7 13.6%
8 15.9%
9 12.9%
10 6.7%
11 2.2%
12 0.4%
13 0.0%		 4 0.3%
5 1.9%
6 7.2%
7 18.9%
8 28.1%
9 24.9%
10 13.3%
11 4.5%
12 0.9%
13 0.1%		 2 11.6%
3 52.3%
4 29.4%
5 6.0%
6 0.7%
7 0.1%
UMN 2 0.4%
3 9.7%
4 10.8%
5 7.9%
6 8.5%
7 13.6%
8 19.8%
9 19.0%
10 8.4%
11 1.7%
12 0.1%
13 0.0%		 4 0.0%
5 0.2%
6 3.0%
7 13.0%
8 29.3%
9 34.1%
10 16.6%
11 3.5%
12 0.2%
13 0.0%		 2 1.5%
3 37.4%
4 37.2%
5 17.6%
6 5.1%
7 1.1%
8 0.1%
Maine 3 1.1%
4 6.4%
5 8.7%
6 6.7%
7 2.3%
8 2.6%
9 7.5%
10 13.4%
11 21.8%
12 20.2%
13 8.3%
14 1.1%		 10 5.7%
11 36.0%
12 39.5%
13 16.6%
14 2.2%		 3 4.5%
4 25.5%
5 34.6%
6 26.8%
7 8.3%
8 0.3%
9 0.0%
UND 2 0.2%
3 5.1%
4 5.3%
5 2.0%
6 2.1%
7 3.6%
8 6.4%
9 14.6%
10 22.9%
11 19.0%
12 14.2%
13 4.2%
14 0.3%		 7 0.0%
8 0.1%
9 7.4%
10 25.6%
11 30.2%
12 27.6%
13 8.5%
14 0.6%		 2 1.9%
3 41.1%
4 42.2%
5 13.4%
6 1.3%
7 0.0%
Mass.-Lowell 6 1.1%
7 8.8%
8 17.7%
9 19.6%
10 21.6%
11 20.6%
12 8.9%
13 1.5%
14 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Michigan State 13 11.7%
14 41.0%
15 37.1%
16 6.6%
17 3.6%
18 0.1%		 n/a n/a
Western Michigan 7 0.0%
8 0.0%
9 0.2%
10 1.1%
11 3.1%
12 7.1%
13 13.0%
14 26.6%
15 21.2%
16 19.9%
17 6.4%
18 1.1%		 13 0.9%
14 6.6%
15 14.3%
16 55.7%
17 19.2%
18 3.4%		 7 0.1%
8 0.1%
9 1.0%
10 4.6%
11 12.5%
12 27.8%
13 32.9%
14 21.1%
Denver 3 1.2%
4 2.8%
5 4.0%
6 3.2%
7 1.3%
8 0.8%
9 2.5%
10 7.3%
11 16.8%
12 29.7%
13 22.8%
14 7.6%		 10 1.3%
11 12.1%
12 37.3%
13 36.0%
14 13.4%		 3 9.5%
4 22.4%
5 31.8%
6 25.4%
7 9.8%
8 1.1%
9 0.0%
Northern Michigan 13 1.3%
14 10.2%
15 32.9%
16 51.8%
17 3.8%		 n/a n/a
Notre Dame 17 4.4%
18 64.6%
19 28.4%
20 2.6%		 n/a n/a
Union 2 1.7%
3 7.6%
4 9.9%
5 6.1%
6 5.8%
7 9.0%
8 11.9%
9 13.7%
10 11.1%
11 6.1%
12 7.8%
13 8.2%
14 1.1%
15 0.0%		 6 0.0%
7 0.5%
8 4.1%
9 12.3%
10 17.0%
11 14.9%
12 23.2%
13 24.7%
14 3.2%
15 0.1%		 2 6.7%
3 30.1%
4 38.3%
5 18.6%
6 5.0%
7 1.1%
8 0.1%
Merrimack 14 0.0%
15 0.8%
16 9.1%
17 64.1%
18 23.0%
19 3.1%
20 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Ohio State 19 19.1%
20 48.9%
21 28.7%
22 3.2%
23 0.2%		 n/a n/a
Lake Superior 19 0.4%
20 9.2%
21 36.4%
22 40.6%
23 11.6%
24 1.6%
25 0.2%
26 0.0%		 n/a n/a
SCSU 13 0.3%
14 1.5%
15 3.7%
16 3.7%
17 3.7%
18 4.6%
19 15.8%
20 13.5%
21 3.4%
22 7.1%
23 22.1%
24 14.6%
25 5.4%
26 0.6%		 20 0.0%
21 0.4%
22 14.2%
23 44.3%
24 29.3%
25 10.7%
26 1.2%		 13 2.1%
14 12.0%
15 29.5%
16 27.8%
17 25.8%
18 2.9%
Cornell 4 0.3%
5 1.9%
6 6.5%
7 10.2%
8 5.1%
9 1.0%
10 1.7%
11 6.0%
12 11.0%
13 28.6%
14 10.6%
15 4.3%
16 8.9%
17 3.8%
18 0.3%		 11 0.0%
12 0.9%
13 23.5%
14 24.1%
15 12.9%
16 26.6%
17 11.3%
18 0.9%		 4 1.2%
5 7.5%
6 26.0%
7 40.7%
8 20.2%
9 3.9%
10 0.4%
11 0.0%
CC 19 0.6%
20 5.4%
21 17.0%
22 34.9%
23 31.1%
24 10.3%
25 0.7%		 n/a n/a
Northeastern 24 0.0%
25 0.1%
26 3.6%
27 23.8%
28 51.4%
29 19.2%
30 1.8%		 n/a n/a
UW 22 0.3%
23 3.8%
24 26.2%
25 42.7%
26 24.3%
27 2.7%
28 0.1%		 n/a n/a
Bemidji State 28 9.3%
29 40.3%
30 37.5%
31 11.1%
32 1.7%
33 0.1%		 n/a n/a
New Hampshire 30 0.3%
31 18.8%
32 19.4%
33 5.6%
34 0.3%
Non-TUC 55.5%		 n/a n/a
Massachusetts Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Providence 28 0.5%
29 2.9%
30 6.1%
31 9.4%
32 5.0%
33 1.1%
Non-TUC 75.0%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 28 1.9%
29 11.6%
30 24.5%
31 37.5%
32 19.9%
33 4.6%
MTech 22 0.0%
23 0.3%
24 1.7%
25 4.3%
26 5.1%
27 1.2%
28 0.0%
29 1.0%
30 4.2%
31 6.1%
32 1.2%
33 0.0%
Non-TUC 75.0%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 22 0.0%
23 2.2%
24 13.6%
25 34.1%
26 40.7%
27 9.3%
Harvard 15 0.0%
16 0.1%
17 10.2%
18 3.0%
19 16.5%
20 13.9%
21 11.7%
22 4.9%
23 7.4%
24 7.0%
25 8.6%
26 7.5%
27 8.0%
28 1.1%		 20 0.0%
21 0.0%
22 0.8%
23 9.4%
24 18.4%
25 21.6%
26 22.5%
27 24.0%
28 3.2%		 15 0.1%
16 0.6%
17 40.6%
18 12.0%
19 41.6%
20 5.1%
Alaska Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Colgate 17 0.2%
18 3.3%
19 16.0%
20 5.5%
21 0.1%
22 1.3%
23 10.1%
24 23.5%
25 23.3%
26 13.3%
27 2.7%
28 0.8%		 24 8.3%
25 41.9%
26 39.4%
27 8.1%
28 2.3%		 17 0.6%
18 13.2%
19 64.1%
20 22.1%
Bowling Green Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Nebraska-Omaha Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Quinnipiac 25 5.7%
26 35.8%
27 45.6%
28 10.8%
29 2.1%		 n/a n/a
Yale Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
St. Lawrence Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Niagara 22 1.2%
23 3.7%
24 6.1%
25 2.9%
26 2.6%
27 6.0%
28 13.6%
29 14.6%
30 18.5%
31 19.5%
32 9.8%
33 1.5%
34 0.1%		 28 3.2%
29 11.1%
30 27.4%
31 35.7%
32 19.6%
33 3.0%
34 0.1%		 22 4.9%
23 14.6%
24 24.2%
25 11.4%
26 10.0%
27 16.2%
28 10.7%
29 7.0%
30 0.4%
31 0.5%
Mankato Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Air Force 19 0.0%
20 0.7%
21 2.5%
22 5.7%
23 8.8%
24 6.1%
25 1.1%
26 1.4%
27 2.0%
28 11.4%
29 19.9%
30 26.0%
31 11.5%
32 2.6%
33 0.2%		 26 0.0%
27 0.1%
28 1.2%
29 20.7%
30 49.5%
31 23.1%
32 5.2%
33 0.3%		 19 0.1%
20 2.9%
21 10.0%
22 22.7%
23 35.2%
24 24.6%
25 4.5%
Clarkson Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Dartmouth Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
RIT 20 0.2%
21 0.2%
22 0.9%
23 1.0%
24 2.9%
25 5.1%
26 5.8%
27 8.0%
28 1.0%
29 0.1%
30 5.6%
31 10.2%
32 7.0%
33 2.0%
34 0.1%
Non-TUC 50.0%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 20 0.7%
21 0.9%
22 3.4%
23 3.9%
24 11.5%
25 20.3%
26 23.2%
27 32.0%
28 4.0%
AA Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Princeton Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Rensselaer Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Holy Cross Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Vermont Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Brown Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Robert Morris Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Bentley Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Connecticut Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Alabama-Huntsville Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
American Int’l Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Army Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Sacred Heart Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a

This is the last time I’ll post the complete table, from now on I’ll just focus on those teams that can still finish in the top 16.

Resources

Sioux have an opportunity to make PWR gains and position themselves for NCAA tournament berth

The Sioux have an opportunity to make a move in the PairWise Rankings (PWR) and toward an NCAA tournament selection.

Last weekend, a sweep was necessary just to maintain UND’s ranking of #14. The Sioux did sweep and rose modestly to #13.

This weekend, a sweep could easily push UND up a couple more spots into the relative safety of a #10-#12 ranking.

Any outcome in which UND fails to advance, whether winning a single game or none, would leave UND on the bubble for the NCAA tournament. The #14 ranked team stands a fair chance of making the tournament — it does so if 2 or fewer teams outside the top 16 gets autobids. However, UND’s ranking would be quite likely to move a slot or two while the Sioux watched the Final Five from home, leaving UND’s destiny out of its hands.

Likelihood of UND having a particular PWR ranking (or higher) on March 12, based on UND’s performance
0-2-0 1-2-0 2-1-0 2-0-0
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
6 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.96%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 5.21%
9 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% 18.12%
10 0.00% 0.00% 10.88% 42.71%
11 0.00% 0.23% 39.66% 75.41%
12 0.86% 3.74% 80.26% 95.90%
13 7.46% 20.22% 96.92% 99.99%
14 31.13% 54.48% 99.99% 100.00%
15 64.52% 83.66% 100.00% 100.00%
16 89.11% 97.21% 100.00% 100.00%
17 98.74% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
18 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
19 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
20 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

It doesn’t show up in the table (not enough decimal places), but there is about a 1/1,000,000 scenario in which UND comes out of the weekend #4 in the PWR and positioned for a 1 seed. The lowest likely rank, if swept, is #19.

Who else to watch this weekend

The two separate lists are the series UND cares most about if the Sioux win (outcomes that can flip other comparisons in UND’s favor) and the series that UND cares most about if the Sioux lose (outcomes that can flip comparisons away from UND).

If UND wins:

  • Wisconsin over Denver (win series)
  • Rensselaer over Union (one game if UND sweeps, series if UND goes 2-1)
  • Alaska Anchorage over Minnesota (win series)
  • Merrimack over Maine (win series if UND sweeps, not as important if UND goes 2-1)

If UND loses:

  • Maine over Merrimack (win series)
  • Michigan over Notre Dame (win series)
  • Lake Superior over Wester Michigan (one game)
  • Dartmouth over Cornell (win series)

The series listed are those that increase UND’s PWR by at least .75 on average.

Outlook for all NCAA teams

I didn’t run charts (like the UND chart above) for any teams other than UND yet, but the data is all in the table below. If you’d like to see any particular team in chart form, just let me know.

Here are the likely PWR rankings for each NCAA team as of March 12 (after all of this weekend’s best-of-3 series complete).

Team March 12 PWR Possibilities
Overall Swept Advance (2-1-0 or 2-0-0)
Boston College 1 85.1%
2 12.7%
3 1.4%
4 0.6%
5 0.2%
6 0.0%
7 0.0%		 1 27.6%
2 34.0%
3 23.6%
4 11.8%
5 2.9%
6 0.1%
7 0.0%		 1 89.4%
2 10.6%
Michigan 1 2.2%
2 34.2%
3 15.4%
4 12.9%
5 13.9%
6 9.6%
7 5.4%
8 3.8%
9 1.8%
10 0.6%
11 0.1%
12 0.0%		 2 0.0%
3 0.6%
4 2.8%
5 11.3%
6 20.7%
7 26.4%
8 22.6%
9 11.1%
10 3.5%
11 0.8%
12 0.1%		 1 3.5%
2 53.5%
3 22.4%
4 14.3%
5 6.1%
6 0.3%
7 0.0%
Ferris State 1 0.0%
2 13.0%
3 26.0%
4 27.3%
5 18.4%
6 6.9%
7 3.2%
8 2.8%
9 1.7%
10 0.6%
11 0.1%
12 0.0%		 2 0.0%
3 0.2%
4 1.5%
5 6.0%
6 12.8%
7 21.4%
8 27.3%
9 20.6%
10 8.2%
11 1.7%
12 0.2%		 1 0.1%
2 14.6%
3 29.3%
4 30.4%
5 19.5%
6 5.7%
7 0.5%
8 0.0%
Mass.-Lowell 1 0.9%
2 18.4%
3 27.7%
4 16.0%
5 10.2%
6 9.2%
7 6.7%
8 3.4%
9 2.5%
10 2.6%
11 1.8%
12 0.5%
13 0.0%		 2 0.0%
3 0.4%
4 1.4%
5 5.0%
6 12.1%
7 16.8%
8 15.4%
9 14.2%
10 16.9%
11 12.5%
12 4.7%
13 0.5%		 1 1.1%
2 22.0%
3 33.0%
4 18.6%
5 10.8%
6 8.4%
7 4.9%
8 1.2%
9 0.1%
10 0.0%
11 0.0%
Boston University 1 0.0%
2 0.4%
3 3.2%
4 13.5%
5 23.7%
6 22.6%
7 11.5%
8 6.6%
9 5.6%
10 6.6%
11 5.0%
12 1.2%
13 0.2%		 5 0.0%
6 0.2%
7 1.5%
8 5.6%
9 16.3%
10 31.9%
11 31.0%
12 11.6%
13 1.9%		 1 0.0%
2 0.5%
3 4.1%
4 17.2%
5 30.2%
6 28.5%
7 13.1%
8 5.0%
9 1.2%
10 0.1%
11 0.0%
Miami 1 0.1%
2 0.8%
3 3.0%
4 6.0%
5 7.8%
6 8.2%
7 7.5%
8 9.5%
9 9.7%
10 7.0%
11 14.1%
12 17.1%
13 8.9%
14 0.2%
15 0.0%		 7 0.0%
8 0.0%
9 0.2%
10 4.6%
11 22.7%
12 41.5%
13 29.9%
14 0.9%
15 0.0%		 1 0.2%
2 1.5%
3 5.9%
4 11.9%
5 15.3%
6 16.2%
7 14.5%
8 17.0%
9 13.7%
10 3.2%
11 0.6%
12 0.0%
UMD 1 11.6%
2 20.4%
3 22.4%
4 19.8%
5 12.3%
6 7.3%
7 3.7%
8 1.7%
9 0.6%
10 0.2%
11 0.1%
12 0.0%
13 0.0%		 2 0.1%
3 1.7%
4 7.3%
5 16.4%
6 25.3%
7 22.7%
8 14.6%
9 7.5%
10 3.0%
11 1.0%
12 0.2%
13 0.0%		 1 12.7%
2 22.4%
3 24.4%
4 20.7%
5 11.5%
6 5.5%
7 2.1%
8 0.6%
9 0.1%
10 0.0%
11 0.0%
Michigan State 3 0.0%
4 0.0%
5 0.0%
6 0.5%
7 2.1%
8 6.8%
9 13.4%
10 15.4%
11 9.9%
12 9.5%
13 17.9%
14 14.3%
15 7.7%
16 2.1%
17 0.4%
18 0.0%
19 0.0%		 10 0.0%
11 0.1%
12 8.2%
13 28.8%
14 32.8%
15 21.3%
16 7.1%
17 1.4%
18 0.2%
19 0.0%		 3 0.0%
4 0.0%
5 0.1%
6 1.0%
7 4.4%
8 13.8%
9 27.2%
10 31.2%
11 17.9%
12 3.5%
13 0.8%
14 0.1%
UMN 2 0.0%
3 0.3%
4 2.1%
5 7.5%
6 19.3%
7 25.8%
8 15.3%
9 10.1%
10 8.3%
11 6.0%
12 3.7%
13 1.6%
14 0.1%
15 0.0%		 7 0.0%
8 0.1%
9 1.0%
10 7.0%
11 20.6%
12 37.8%
13 30.8%
14 2.7%
15 0.1%		 2 0.0%
3 0.4%
4 2.3%
5 8.1%
6 21.0%
7 28.0%
8 16.6%
9 10.7%
10 7.8%
11 4.1%
12 1.1%
13 0.0%
Maine 2 0.0%
3 0.0%
4 0.1%
5 0.5%
6 2.1%
7 5.5%
8 11.7%
9 16.1%
10 14.4%
11 11.6%
12 10.3%
13 8.7%
14 9.2%
15 5.7%
16 3.0%
17 0.9%
18 0.2%
19 0.0%
20 0.0%
21 0.0%		 11 0.2%
12 3.7%
13 15.8%
14 32.6%
15 27.6%
16 14.6%
17 4.5%
18 1.0%
19 0.1%
20 0.0%
21 0.0%		 2 0.0%
3 0.0%
4 0.1%
5 0.9%
6 3.6%
7 9.6%
8 20.4%
9 28.0%
10 23.1%
11 10.6%
12 3.2%
13 0.5%
Denver 1 0.0%
2 0.0%
3 0.1%
4 0.5%
5 1.3%
6 3.2%
7 6.5%
8 11.9%
9 17.6%
10 19.3%
11 16.3%
12 11.9%
13 7.1%
14 2.4%
15 1.3%
16 0.5%
17 0.1%		 9 0.0%
10 1.7%
11 12.3%
12 27.8%
13 28.7%
14 16.0%
15 9.3%
16 3.7%
17 0.5%		 1 0.0%
2 0.0%
3 0.1%
4 0.7%
5 1.9%
6 4.6%
7 9.5%
8 17.2%
9 25.2%
10 25.2%
11 13.5%
12 2.1%
UND 10 0.0%
11 0.2%
12 3.5%
13 16.5%
14 34.3%
15 29.1%
16 13.6%
17 2.8%		 n/a n/a
Notre Dame 8 0.0%
9 0.0%
10 0.1%
11 1.2%
12 4.9%
13 8.7%
14 9.6%
15 7.9%
16 6.3%
17 10.2%
18 20.9%
19 25.7%
20 4.4%
21 0.1%		 15 0.0%
16 0.2%
17 5.2%
18 25.1%
19 56.5%
20 12.6%
21 0.4%		 8 0.0%
9 0.0%
10 0.4%
11 3.2%
12 13.4%
13 23.9%
14 26.4%
15 21.0%
16 10.6%
17 1.0%
Western Michigan 11 0.1%
12 0.7%
13 5.1%
14 12.6%
15 16.1%
16 14.6%
17 8.7%
18 5.0%
19 14.3%
20 20.7%
21 2.2%
22 0.0%		 17 0.0%
18 4.3%
19 28.1%
20 59.2%
21 8.3%
22 0.1%		 11 0.1%
12 1.2%
13 9.0%
14 22.0%
15 28.3%
16 25.3%
17 13.3%
18 0.7%
19 0.0%
Northern Michigan 13 0.3%
14 4.4%
15 20.8%
16 31.5%
17 25.8%
18 13.8%
19 3.4%
20 0.1%
21 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Merrimack 6 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.1%
9 1.0%
10 4.2%
11 9.9%
12 11.8%
13 10.3%
14 5.0%
15 3.0%
16 7.4%
17 14.8%
18 16.3%
19 11.6%
20 3.8%
21 0.8%
22 0.1%
23 0.0%		 14 0.0%
15 0.2%
16 2.2%
17 12.4%
18 34.1%
19 35.6%
20 12.4%
21 2.8%
22 0.3%
23 0.0%		 6 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.3%
9 2.3%
10 9.8%
11 23.2%
12 27.7%
13 24.0%
14 10.9%
15 1.9%
16 0.0%
Union 2 0.0%
3 0.3%
4 1.3%
5 4.3%
6 11.0%
7 21.7%
8 24.7%
9 14.9%
10 10.1%
11 6.6%
12 3.7%
13 1.1%
14 0.1%
15 0.0%		 7 0.0%
8 0.6%
9 4.4%
10 13.5%
11 28.6%
12 32.8%
13 16.7%
14 3.1%
15 0.4%		 2 0.0%
3 0.3%
4 1.5%
5 4.8%
6 12.2%
7 24.1%
8 27.2%
9 15.8%
10 9.2%
11 3.9%
12 0.8%
13 0.0%
14 0.0%
Lake Superior 14 0.0%
15 0.5%
16 4.1%
17 12.2%
18 15.7%
19 12.4%
20 11.1%
21 11.6%
22 14.4%
23 11.7%
24 5.0%
25 1.2%
26 0.1%		 18 0.0%
19 0.1%
20 1.8%
21 10.4%
22 34.1%
23 34.1%
24 15.3%
25 3.8%
26 0.4%		 14 0.0%
15 1.1%
16 9.6%
17 28.3%
18 36.0%
19 20.4%
20 3.8%
21 0.8%
22 0.1%
23 0.0%
Ohio State 18 0.3%
19 6.6%
20 24.0%
21 33.4%
22 24.4%
23 9.9%
24 1.5%
25 0.1%		 n/a n/a
CC 13 0.0%
14 0.3%
15 3.5%
16 11.7%
17 18.6%
18 21.8%
19 17.4%
20 6.9%
21 10.2%
22 6.6%
23 2.3%
24 0.7%
25 0.1%		 18 0.7%
19 4.3%
20 17.2%
21 33.5%
22 27.4%
23 11.9%
24 4.3%
25 0.7%		 13 0.0%
14 0.4%
15 5.0%
16 16.7%
17 26.6%
18 30.4%
19 20.2%
20 0.7%
21 0.0%
Cornell 4 0.0%
5 0.0%
6 0.1%
7 0.4%
8 1.8%
9 5.0%
10 10.5%
11 17.2%
12 21.1%
13 13.7%
14 7.4%
15 4.5%
16 5.3%
17 5.6%
18 5.0%
19 2.3%
20 0.1%		 13 0.0%
14 0.5%
15 4.9%
16 16.0%
17 27.6%
18 31.7%
19 18.4%
20 0.8%		 4 0.0%
5 0.0%
6 0.1%
7 0.5%
8 2.3%
9 6.4%
10 13.6%
11 22.1%
12 27.2%
13 17.2%
14 8.3%
15 1.9%
16 0.3%
17 0.0%
Northeastern 23 0.0%
24 0.1%
25 1.7%
26 9.1%
27 22.4%
28 29.7%
29 23.3%
30 10.5%
31 2.7%
32 0.5%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%		 n/a n/a
SCSU 19 0.0%
20 0.2%
21 2.2%
22 9.5%
23 14.8%
24 14.4%
25 12.6%
26 7.3%
27 5.3%
28 6.6%
29 5.8%
30 5.3%
31 6.1%
32 4.7%
33 1.5%
34 0.1%
Non-TUC 3.6%		 27 0.0%
28 0.2%
29 2.5%
30 13.1%
31 30.4%
32 25.6%
33 8.1%
34 0.6%
Non-TUC 19.6%		 19 0.0%
20 0.4%
21 3.6%
22 15.7%
23 24.5%
24 23.8%
25 20.6%
26 9.7%
27 1.7%
28 0.0%
Bemidji State 20 0.0%
21 0.4%
22 4.1%
23 23.2%
24 35.9%
25 26.2%
26 9.9%
27 0.3%
28 0.0%		 n/a n/a
UW 17 0.0%
18 0.3%
19 2.8%
20 9.0%
21 8.7%
22 7.0%
23 5.6%
24 4.5%
25 8.3%
26 14.1%
27 13.1%
28 11.1%
29 9.1%
30 4.8%
31 1.3%
32 0.2%
33 0.0%
34 0.0%		 22 0.1%
23 0.6%
24 1.2%
25 2.6%
26 11.0%
27 20.0%
28 25.8%
29 22.8%
30 12.2%
31 3.2%
32 0.4%
33 0.0%
34 0.0%		 17 0.0%
18 1.0%
19 8.9%
20 29.1%
21 27.1%
22 19.1%
23 10.8%
24 3.5%
25 0.4%
26 0.0%
Massachusetts 20 0.0%
21 0.0%
22 0.2%
23 0.6%
24 1.1%
25 2.7%
26 4.4%
27 3.4%
28 2.5%
29 4.9%
30 9.8%
31 7.9%
32 2.7%
33 0.7%
34 0.1%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 59.1%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 20 0.0%
21 0.2%
22 1.4%
23 4.1%
24 8.1%
25 19.8%
26 32.3%
27 23.3%
28 8.7%
29 1.8%
30 0.3%
31 0.0%
32 0.0%
New Hampshire 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.8%
26 3.6%
27 6.1%
28 5.4%
29 3.6%
30 2.7%
31 3.1%
32 3.0%
33 0.7%
34 0.0%
Non-TUC 70.8%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 23 0.0%
24 0.2%
25 3.7%
26 16.6%
27 28.0%
28 24.9%
29 15.5%
30 7.7%
31 2.6%
32 0.6%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%
Nebraska-Omaha 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.2%
26 0.9%
27 2.7%
28 4.7%
29 7.8%
30 7.2%
31 7.1%
32 5.8%
33 2.5%
34 0.5%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 60.6%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.4%
26 2.4%
27 6.7%
28 11.9%
29 19.7%
30 18.2%
31 17.9%
32 14.7%
33 6.2%
34 1.2%
35 0.1%
Non-TUC 0.5%
Harvard 17 0.0%
18 0.2%
19 2.0%
20 10.2%
21 10.3%
22 10.9%
23 11.4%
24 12.6%
25 9.8%
26 7.6%
27 6.0%
28 2.7%
29 2.6%
30 5.6%
31 5.8%
32 2.2%
33 0.2%
34 0.0%		 26 0.0%
27 0.1%
28 2.0%
29 13.7%
30 34.3%
31 35.7%
32 13.3%
33 0.9%
34 0.0%		 17 0.0%
18 0.2%
19 3.1%
20 15.9%
21 16.1%
22 17.0%
23 17.7%
24 18.5%
25 10.0%
26 1.5%
27 0.0%
Alaska Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Providence Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
MTech Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Quinnipiac 16 0.0%
17 0.1%
18 0.5%
19 1.2%
20 4.0%
21 6.5%
22 10.2%
23 11.4%
24 10.6%
25 9.3%
26 9.7%
27 10.6%
28 9.6%
29 8.9%
30 5.2%
31 1.7%
32 0.5%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%		 24 0.1%
25 1.1%
26 3.8%
27 9.9%
28 21.9%
29 32.9%
30 20.8%
31 6.9%
32 2.0%
33 0.4%
34 0.0%		 16 0.0%
17 0.1%
18 1.0%
19 2.5%
20 8.0%
21 12.9%
22 20.3%
23 22.6%
24 20.1%
25 11.0%
26 1.5%
27 0.0%
Colgate 18 0.0%
19 0.3%
20 5.6%
21 13.5%
22 12.6%
23 8.7%
24 6.6%
25 4.6%
26 4.2%
27 6.1%
28 7.8%
29 7.1%
30 9.1%
31 8.8%
32 3.5%
33 0.8%
34 0.1%
Non-TUC 0.7%		 25 0.0%
26 0.1%
27 0.7%
28 3.4%
29 13.0%
30 29.1%
31 33.6%
32 13.8%
33 3.1%
34 0.2%
Non-TUC 2.9%		 18 0.0%
19 0.6%
20 11.2%
21 27.1%
22 25.2%
23 17.1%
24 12.0%
25 6.0%
26 0.6%
27 0.2%
28 0.0%
Bowling Green Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Yale 23 0.0%
24 0.2%
25 1.4%
26 3.4%
27 4.6%
28 3.9%
29 4.0%
30 5.5%
31 6.4%
32 4.1%
33 1.6%
34 0.5%
35 0.1%
Non-TUC 64.3%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 23 0.1%
24 0.7%
25 3.8%
26 9.5%
27 12.9%
28 11.0%
29 11.2%
30 15.5%
31 17.9%
32 11.4%
33 4.5%
34 1.3%
35 0.1%
Dartmouth Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
St. Lawrence Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Mankato Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Clarkson Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Air Force 22 0.0%
23 0.4%
24 6.9%
25 20.9%
26 23.8%
27 14.3%
28 6.1%
29 2.5%
30 0.7%
31 0.5%
32 0.7%
33 0.5%
34 0.2%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 22.5%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 22 0.0%
23 0.5%
24 9.1%
25 27.7%
26 31.6%
27 19.0%
28 8.0%
29 3.3%
30 0.7%
31 0.0%
RIT 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.2%
26 1.4%
27 3.8%
28 6.0%
29 11.1%
30 16.2%
31 13.8%
32 11.4%
33 6.0%
34 1.6%
35 0.2%
Non-TUC 28.6%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.2%
26 1.9%
27 5.2%
28 8.4%
29 15.5%
30 22.6%
31 19.3%
32 15.9%
33 8.3%
34 2.3%
35 0.3%
Non-TUC 0.0%
Niagara 24 0.0%
25 0.1%
26 0.4%
27 1.4%
28 3.9%
29 8.8%
30 13.0%
31 15.2%
32 11.6%
33 5.9%
34 1.4%
35 0.1%
Non-TUC 38.3%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 24 0.0%
25 0.1%
26 0.7%
27 2.3%
28 6.3%
29 14.2%
30 21.0%
31 24.6%
32 18.7%
33 9.5%
34 2.3%
35 0.2%
Non-TUC 0.0%
AA Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Princeton Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Rensselaer Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Holy Cross Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Robert Morris Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Vermont Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Brown Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Bentley Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Connecticut Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Alabama-Huntsville Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
American Int’l Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Army Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Sacred Heart Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a

This is probably the last time this season I’ll publish the entire NCAA. Next week I’ll pare it down to those within sight of making the NCAA tournament.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations.

Resources

Sioux hosting Minnesota State in a nearly must-win situation

UND continues to keep things interesting by doing just what it needs to do to keep its playoff hopes alive, but no more. A split last weekend left UND at #14 in the PairWise Rankings (PWR) and a good shot at making the NCAA tournament. The Sioux need a sweep this weekend to hold steady or rise slightly, anything less is likely to lead to a fall.

The PWR has played out pretty much as expected this Spring. If you look back at A first look at the PairWise Rankings and UND’s tournament possibilities from January 3, I forecast that the Sioux would need to win 11 of 15 to be confidently above #13 at the end of the regular season. Since then, the Sioux are 8-4-1 with 2 games remaining in the regular season, and this week’s forecast confirms that 2 more wins are needed to stand a good shot of finishing ranked #13 or above.

Probability of UND ending the regular season with a particular PWR rank or higher based on UND’s performance
Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
6 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.33%
11 0.00% 0.00% 6.92%
12 0.00% 0.14% 24.24%
13 0.00% 2.49% 63.34%
14 0.10% 18.08% 94.57%
15 2.03% 54.65% 98.93%
16 14.01% 88.64% 100.00%
17 45.51% 100.00% 100.00%
18 99.97% 100.00% 100.00%
19 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
20 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

The good news is that even with a split this weekend UND fans won’t have to abandon all hope. A split would leave UND with a better than 50% chance of being #15 or above and an 89% chance of being #16 or above. A good conference tournament could certainly push UND into NCAA tournament position from there.

Who to cheer for this weekend

Other than UND’s own matchup, these are the games that most improve UND’s outcomes.

If UND sweeps:

  • New Hampshire over Maine
  • Nebraska-Omaha over Denver (sweep)
  • Bowling Green over N. Michigan (at least one)

If UND splits:

  • Notre Dame over Ohio St (at least one)
  • Massachusetts over Merrimack (sweep)
  • Bowling Green over N. Michigan (sweep)

If UND is swept:

  • Massachusetts over Merrimack (sweep)

I may relabel these in future posts, because they’re clearly split into offensive (comparisons UND is losing but can flip) and defensive (comparisons UND is winning but could lose). The offensive moves are those that help us most if we win — the Sioux could take the comparisons with Maine, Denver, and Northern Michigan if we win and they lose. The defensive moves are those that help us most if we lose — the Sioux want to hold onto the comparisons with Ohio St. and Merrimack by them losing.

A look around the WCHA

Minnesota, while not quite locked up, is sure in control of it’s own destiny.

Denver’s split also resulted in a chart that looks a lot like last week’s, but with the win 0 and win 4 chopped off, due to the split.

And unfortunately for CC, getting swept leaves their chart looking a lot like last week’s, but with the win 3 and win 4 chopped off. The Tigers hopes aren’t dead yet, but they’re fading fast.

A look around the NCAA

Finally, this one is big, here are the likelihoods of each each NCAA team having each PWR ranking after this weekend.

Team Mar. 5 PWR Possibilities
Overall Win none Win all
Boston College 1 24.4%
2 60.1%
3 8.9%
4 4.8%
5 1.7%
6 0.1%
7 0.0%
8 0.0%		 1 0.5%
2 1.7%
3 15.4%
4 44.6%
5 34.8%
6 2.8%
7 0.2%
8 0.1%		 1 25.5%
2 65.1%
3 7.4%
4 1.8%
5 0.2%
6 0.0%
Michigan 1 4.3%
2 22.2%
3 70.1%
4 3.3%
5 0.2%
6 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Ferris State 1 0.2%
2 2.2%
3 10.8%
4 51.8%
5 30.4%
6 4.6%
7 0.0%		 n/a n/a
UMD 1 71.0%
2 14.0%
3 2.8%
4 2.1%
5 2.6%
6 3.2%
7 3.1%
8 0.9%
9 0.3%
10 0.1%
11 0.0%		 1 0.0%
2 0.1%
3 0.4%
4 3.3%
5 14.8%
6 31.6%
7 35.1%
8 10.0%
9 3.6%
10 0.8%
11 0.2%		 1 93.0%
2 6.9%
3 0.0%
Boston University 1 0.2%
2 1.4%
3 5.6%
4 23.2%
5 34.0%
6 19.1%
7 6.5%
8 0.6%
9 1.4%
10 2.4%
11 3.1%
12 2.4%
13 0.1%
14 0.0%		 5 0.0%
6 0.3%
7 2.4%
8 5.9%
9 13.2%
10 23.6%
11 30.1%
12 23.8%
13 0.7%
14 0.0%		 1 0.5%
2 3.0%
3 12.1%
4 47.0%
5 37.3%
6 0.1%
7 0.0%
Miami 3 0.0%
4 0.0%
5 1.2%
6 8.3%
7 21.4%
8 30.4%
9 29.8%
10 8.8%
11 0.0%
12 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Michigan State 5 0.0%
6 0.1%
7 1.0%
8 5.9%
9 23.0%
10 35.9%
11 23.3%
12 10.4%
13 0.5%
14 0.0%		 n/a n/a
UMN 2 0.0%
3 0.0%
4 1.3%
5 14.2%
6 37.4%
7 29.5%
8 4.6%
9 1.3%
10 1.2%
11 3.1%
12 3.3%
13 2.4%
14 0.7%
15 0.5%
16 0.4%
17 0.1%
18 0.0%
19 0.0%		 7 0.0%
8 0.2%
9 0.9%
10 8.8%
11 26.0%
12 27.7%
13 20.6%
14 6.2%
15 4.8%
16 3.8%
17 0.7%
18 0.3%
19 0.0%		 2 0.0%
3 0.0%
4 2.7%
5 27.4%
6 50.3%
7 18.5%
8 0.8%
9 0.2%
10 0.0%
11 0.0%
Mass.-Lowell 2 0.1%
3 1.8%
4 13.6%
5 15.5%
6 23.9%
7 18.1%
8 8.0%
9 5.7%
10 2.9%
11 4.0%
12 2.4%
13 1.7%
14 1.1%
15 0.8%
16 0.4%
17 0.1%
18 0.0%
19 0.0%		 6 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.4%
9 2.6%
10 9.7%
11 16.2%
12 21.3%
13 20.0%
14 12.7%
15 9.8%
16 5.2%
17 1.7%
18 0.2%
19 0.0%		 2 0.1%
3 3.5%
4 26.8%
5 27.9%
6 29.7%
7 11.7%
8 0.3%
Northern Michigan 5 0.0%
6 0.0%
7 0.1%
8 1.2%
9 5.7%
10 15.5%
11 26.4%
12 17.0%
13 9.8%
14 7.7%
15 3.9%
16 4.1%
17 3.6%
18 4.8%
19 0.2%
20 0.0%		 13 0.0%
14 0.0%
15 0.4%
16 6.0%
17 26.5%
18 64.0%
19 2.8%
20 0.2%		 5 0.0%
6 0.0%
7 0.2%
8 1.4%
9 6.5%
10 17.7%
11 30.2%
12 19.4%
13 11.2%
14 8.7%
15 3.2%
16 1.5%
17 0.0%
Maine 5 0.0%
6 0.0%
7 0.3%
8 1.6%
9 8.2%
10 22.8%
11 21.0%
12 14.4%
13 9.3%
14 9.8%
15 5.8%
16 5.3%
17 1.2%
18 0.4%
19 0.0%		 8 0.0%
9 0.1%
10 0.6%
11 2.1%
12 11.3%
13 21.1%
14 28.0%
15 16.8%
16 15.4%
17 3.5%
18 1.1%
19 0.0%		 5 0.0%
6 0.0%
7 0.5%
8 2.5%
9 12.4%
10 34.4%
11 30.8%
12 16.1%
13 3.0%
14 0.2%
15 0.0%
UND 9 0.0%
10 0.2%
11 3.8%
12 10.2%
13 23.7%
14 23.9%
15 15.8%
16 13.5%
17 5.9%
18 3.0%
19 0.0%		 14 0.1%
15 1.9%
16 12.1%
17 31.4%
18 54.5%
19 0.0%		 9 0.0%
10 0.3%
11 6.5%
12 17.3%
13 39.2%
14 31.2%
15 4.4%
16 1.1%
Western Michigan 13 0.0%
14 0.3%
15 4.1%
16 27.6%
17 48.7%
18 19.3%
19 0.1%		 n/a n/a
Denver 6 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.1%
9 0.8%
10 4.3%
11 13.6%
12 32.8%
13 31.8%
14 6.2%
15 5.3%
16 3.7%
17 0.9%
18 0.6%
19 0.0%
20 0.0%		 11 0.0%
12 0.2%
13 5.2%
14 16.1%
15 37.7%
16 29.0%
17 7.2%
18 4.7%
19 0.0%
20 0.0%		 6 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.2%
9 1.9%
10 9.6%
11 23.8%
12 36.3%
13 26.5%
14 1.5%
15 0.1%
16 0.0%
Merrimack 9 0.0%
10 0.1%
11 1.1%
12 3.8%
13 5.9%
14 10.7%
15 13.8%
16 20.5%
17 13.8%
18 23.5%
19 2.6%
20 1.9%
21 1.6%
22 0.5%
23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.0%		 15 0.0%
16 0.0%
17 1.6%
18 57.8%
19 10.3%
20 13.7%
21 12.4%
22 3.8%
23 0.3%
24 0.0%
25 0.0%		 9 0.0%
10 0.2%
11 2.8%
12 9.2%
13 13.3%
14 20.7%
15 18.3%
16 12.7%
17 10.2%
18 11.2%
19 1.4%
20 0.0%
Notre Dame 11 0.0%
12 0.0%
13 0.1%
14 1.0%
15 3.0%
16 6.2%
17 14.9%
18 27.1%
19 11.7%
20 20.1%
21 11.0%
22 4.0%
23 0.9%
24 0.0%		 17 0.0%
18 1.8%
19 16.0%
20 37.6%
21 27.7%
22 13.4%
23 3.4%
24 0.1%		 11 0.0%
12 0.0%
13 0.3%
14 2.0%
15 5.9%
16 12.3%
17 29.3%
18 50.0%
19 0.1%
20 0.0%
Ohio State 10 0.0%
11 0.0%
12 0.2%
13 0.8%
14 3.8%
15 7.5%
16 10.5%
17 10.6%
18 17.2%
19 25.9%
20 17.7%
21 4.6%
22 1.3%
23 0.0%
24 0.0%		 18 1.2%
19 39.3%
20 40.1%
21 14.5%
22 4.8%
23 0.2%
24 0.0%		 10 0.0%
11 0.0%
12 0.4%
13 1.6%
14 7.6%
15 15.1%
16 21.1%
17 21.5%
18 32.4%
19 0.2%
20 0.0%
Union 3 0.0%
4 0.0%
5 0.2%
6 3.3%
7 20.0%
8 46.7%
9 23.8%
10 5.8%
11 0.2%
12 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Lake Superior 17 0.0%
18 1.4%
19 29.4%
20 23.4%
21 15.0%
22 10.5%
23 8.6%
24 6.1%
25 3.5%
26 1.7%
27 0.4%
28 0.0%
29 0.0%		 20 0.3%
21 4.0%
22 13.2%
23 24.7%
24 28.0%
25 18.1%
26 9.4%
27 2.1%
28 0.1%
29 0.0%		 17 0.0%
18 2.2%
19 45.9%
20 33.6%
21 13.8%
22 4.4%
23 0.1%
24 0.0%
CC 18 2.2%
19 25.8%
20 23.7%
21 25.1%
22 9.5%
23 5.5%
24 4.5%
25 2.5%
26 0.9%
27 0.2%
28 0.0%
29 0.0%
30 0.0%		 20 0.2%
21 3.3%
22 21.9%
23 28.9%
24 25.1%
25 14.1%
26 5.1%
27 1.2%
28 0.1%
29 0.0%
30 0.0%		 18 6.2%
19 71.4%
20 21.1%
21 1.3%
22 0.1%
Cornell 9 0.0%
10 0.0%
11 0.4%
12 3.2%
13 14.0%
14 34.9%
15 39.6%
16 7.8%
17 0.1%		 n/a n/a
UW 16 0.0%
17 0.0%
18 0.2%
19 2.7%
20 6.2%
21 13.6%
22 11.1%
23 6.3%
24 6.5%
25 7.4%
26 6.2%
27 7.4%
28 10.6%
29 11.1%
30 7.4%
31 2.7%
32 0.6%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%		 24 0.1%
25 3.3%
26 8.0%
27 15.2%
28 23.7%
29 25.2%
30 16.8%
31 6.2%
32 1.3%
33 0.2%
34 0.0%		 16 0.0%
17 0.1%
18 1.7%
19 23.2%
20 37.9%
21 27.4%
22 7.7%
23 1.4%
24 0.3%
25 0.1%
26 0.0%
27 0.0%
Northeastern 18 0.0%
19 0.0%
20 0.2%
21 1.0%
22 1.8%
23 2.2%
24 3.7%
25 8.7%
26 13.1%
27 12.1%
28 7.6%
29 3.1%
30 1.3%
31 1.1%
32 0.7%
33 0.3%
34 0.0%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 42.9%		 26 0.0%
27 0.0%
28 0.2%
29 0.6%
30 1.6%
31 2.3%
32 1.6%
33 0.6%
34 0.1%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 93.0%		 18 0.0%
19 0.1%
20 1.9%
21 10.2%
22 17.7%
23 21.8%
24 24.6%
25 16.0%
26 6.6%
27 1.1%
28 0.1%
29 0.0%
SCSU 17 0.0%
18 0.3%
19 0.9%
20 1.9%
21 2.6%
22 3.3%
23 2.5%
24 4.5%
25 7.7%
26 11.6%
27 9.6%
28 4.9%
29 1.5%
30 1.1%
31 0.6%
32 0.4%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 46.5%		 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.1%
26 0.2%
27 0.4%
28 0.7%
29 1.0%
30 1.7%
31 1.2%
32 0.8%
33 0.2%
34 0.0%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 93.5%		 17 0.5%
18 3.6%
19 10.7%
20 21.6%
21 28.6%
22 28.4%
23 6.0%
24 0.7%
25 0.0%
Bemidji State 22 0.0%
23 0.1%
24 2.0%
25 9.3%
26 19.1%
27 14.0%
28 9.1%
29 12.0%
30 13.3%
31 7.5%
32 2.7%
33 0.7%
34 0.1%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 10.1%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 22 0.0%
23 0.1%
24 4.3%
25 19.8%
26 40.4%
27 27.0%
28 6.8%
29 1.5%
30 0.1%
31 0.0%
New Hampshire 22 0.0%
23 0.0%
24 0.9%
25 4.6%
26 9.0%
27 10.3%
28 7.7%
29 8.5%
30 13.9%
31 14.2%
32 7.9%
33 1.8%
34 0.2%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 21.0%		 25 0.0%
26 0.0%
27 0.2%
28 2.1%
29 9.3%
30 20.0%
31 21.4%
32 12.0%
33 2.8%
34 0.2%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 32.0%		 22 0.0%
23 0.1%
24 2.7%
25 13.4%
26 26.2%
27 29.7%
28 18.2%
29 6.9%
30 2.4%
31 0.4%
32 0.0%
33 0.0%
Alaska 25 0.0%
26 0.0%
27 0.1%
28 0.7%
29 2.2%
30 4.1%
31 4.7%
32 3.4%
33 1.4%
34 0.3%
35 0.0%
36 0.0%
Non-TUC 83.1%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 25 0.0%
26 0.0%
27 0.2%
28 1.8%
29 6.0%
30 11.1%
31 12.8%
32 9.1%
33 3.8%
34 0.8%
35 0.1%
36 0.0%
Non-TUC 54.3%
Nebraska-Omaha 20 0.0%
21 0.4%
22 2.6%
23 4.6%
24 3.1%
25 1.3%
26 1.0%
27 6.3%
28 15.7%
29 16.2%
30 5.8%
31 0.8%
32 0.0%
Non-TUC 42.2%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 20 0.1%
21 2.9%
22 21.5%
23 37.7%
24 25.2%
25 10.3%
26 1.9%
27 0.3%
28 0.0%
Massachusetts 21 0.0%
22 0.3%
23 1.1%
24 3.0%
25 4.0%
26 2.7%
27 2.5%
28 5.8%
29 12.4%
30 13.8%
31 9.5%
32 3.2%
33 0.6%
34 0.1%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 41.0%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 21 0.1%
22 2.3%
23 8.6%
24 23.3%
25 30.9%
26 21.2%
27 10.7%
28 2.6%
29 0.4%
30 0.0%
31 0.0%
MTech 23 0.0%
24 0.3%
25 1.0%
26 2.3%
27 3.9%
28 4.1%
29 3.1%
30 2.0%
31 0.9%
32 0.2%
33 0.0%
Non-TUC 82.1%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 23 0.1%
24 1.6%
25 5.8%
26 12.7%
27 22.0%
28 22.7%
29 17.3%
30 11.4%
31 5.1%
32 1.2%
33 0.0%
Harvard 18 0.0%
19 0.4%
20 3.5%
21 17.9%
22 32.0%
23 24.7%
24 16.9%
25 3.4%
26 1.0%
27 0.1%
28 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Providence 25 0.0%
26 0.1%
27 0.4%
28 1.2%
29 2.0%
30 2.3%
31 1.6%
32 0.7%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 91.7%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 25 0.1%
26 0.7%
27 4.7%
28 14.4%
29 23.7%
30 27.6%
31 19.1%
32 8.0%
33 1.6%
34 0.2%
35 0.0%
Quinnipiac 18 0.0%
19 0.3%
20 1.4%
21 6.6%
22 16.4%
23 21.2%
24 20.0%
25 13.9%
26 6.4%
27 4.2%
28 3.7%
29 3.0%
30 1.9%
31 0.8%
32 0.2%
33 0.0%
34 0.0%		 24 0.1%
25 1.1%
26 5.8%
27 14.4%
28 22.9%
29 24.1%
30 19.4%
31 9.6%
32 2.3%
33 0.3%
34 0.0%		 18 0.0%
19 0.3%
20 1.8%
21 8.1%
22 20.1%
23 25.9%
24 24.0%
25 15.2%
26 4.1%
27 0.4%
28 0.0%
29 0.0%
Colgate 20 0.0%
21 0.5%
22 6.6%
23 22.1%
24 27.9%
25 29.2%
26 11.3%
27 2.1%
28 0.2%
29 0.0%
30 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Bowling Green Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
St. Lawrence Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Yale 26 0.0%
27 0.1%
28 0.6%
29 2.0%
30 5.0%
31 7.7%
32 6.9%
33 3.6%
34 1.0%
35 0.1%
36 0.0%
Non-TUC 73.1%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 26 0.0%
27 0.1%
28 0.9%
29 3.2%
30 8.0%
31 12.3%
32 11.0%
33 5.8%
34 1.5%
35 0.2%
36 0.0%
Non-TUC 57.0%
Mankato Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Clarkson Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
AA Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Air Force 23 0.0%
24 0.4%
25 3.4%
26 13.6%
27 26.3%
28 27.4%
29 17.3%
30 8.3%
31 2.8%
32 0.4%
33 0.0%		 n/a n/a
RIT 27 0.0%
28 0.0%
29 0.1%
30 0.3%
31 0.3%
32 0.2%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 98.9%		 n/a n/a
Niagara Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Dartmouth Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Princeton Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Robert Morris Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Holy Cross Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Rensselaer Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Vermont Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Brown Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Bentley Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Connecticut Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Alabama-Huntsville Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
American Int’l Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Army Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Sacred Heart Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%

Three conferences (the AHA, CCHA, and ECAC) are already in their conference playoffs this week playing best-of-three series. For those teams the “win all” column includes all the scenarios in which that team wins two games, combining scenarios in which they go 2-0 with those in which they go 2-1.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations.

Resources