Sioux Sports Talk

Here’s a closer look at the four teams in the NCAA Midwest Regional (Madison, Wisconsin):

Game 1: (1) North Dakota vs. (4) Princeton (Saturday, March 29, 3:00 p.m. ET)

North Dakota Team Profile
National Rankings: #3/#3
PairWise Ranking: #3
KRACH Strength of Schedule:1st of 59 teams
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (4th season at UND, 104-55-15, .641)
This Season: 26-10-4 Overall, 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Team Offense: 3.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.77 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.8% (34 of 181)
Penalty Kill: 87.5% (154 of 176)
Last Season: 24-14-5 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 13-10-5 WCHA (3rd)
Key Players: Junior F T.J. Oshie (18-23-41, Hobey Baker finalist), Junior F Ryan Duncan (14-22-36), Sophomore F Chris VandeVelde (15-17-32), Sophomore D Chay Genoway (7-19-26), Senior D Taylor Chorney (3-21-24), Senior G Jean-Philippe Lamoureux (25-10-4, 1.65 GAA, .934 SV, 6 SO, Hobey Baker finalist)
NCAA Championships: 7 (most recent, 2000)
NCAA Appearance: 23rd (most recent, 2007)

Princeton Team Profile
National Rankings: #13/#13
PairWise Ranking: #16
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 34th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Guy Gadowsky (4th season at Princeton, 54-67-9, .488)
This Season: 21-13-0 Overall, 14-8-0 ECAC (2nd)
Team Offense: 3.26 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.65 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.2% (29 of 169)
Penalty Kill: 85.3% (122 of 143)
Last Season: 15-16-3, 10-10-2 ECAC (6th)
Key Players: Junior F Lee Jubinville (12-26-38, Hobey Baker finalist), Junior F Brett Wilson (15-20-35), Sophomore F Cam MacIntyre (12-18-30), Senior D Mike Moore (7-17-24), Sophomore G Zane Kalemba (19-10-0, 2.36 GAA, .918 SV, 5 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 2nd (most recent, 1998)

What to watch for: Does the WCHA rebound after a poor showing in the East and West regionals? Can the Tigers match up with UND’s mobile defenseman? Which goaltender makes more of the key saves?

Who will win: Both the Sioux and Tigers play their home games on NHL-sized rinks (85×200), and will require some adjustment to play on the larger surface (97×200) in Madison. Princeton will have a fair number of Denver and Wisconsin fans in its corner, but it won’t much matter. North Dakota has an advantage in all areas and the veteran leadership to advance to the Midwest Regional Final. UND 4-2.

For a complete preview of the UND/Princeton matchup, click here.

Game 2: (2) Denver vs. (3) Wisconsin (Saturday, March 29, 6:30 p.m. ET)

Denver Team Profile
National Rankings: #4/#5
PairWise Ranking: #6 (tied)
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 5th of 59 teams
Head Coach: George Gwozdecky (14th season at Denver, 323-204-41, .605)
This Season: 26-13-1 Overall, 16-11-1 WCHA (3rd)
Team Offense: 2.85 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.20 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 14.1% (28 of 199)
Penalty Kill: 89.1% (163 of 183)
Last Season: 21-15-4 Overall, 13-11-4 WCHA (4th)
Key Players: Freshman F Tyler Bozak (18-16-34), Sophomore F Rhett Rakhshani (14-14-28), Freshman F Kyle Ostrow (10-13-23), Junior D Patrick Mullen (4-18-22), Senior G Peter Mannino (25-13-1, 2.19 GAA, .920 SV, 6 SO)
NCAA Championships: 7 (most recent, 2005)
NCAA Appearance: 19th (most recent, 2005)

Wisconsin Team Profile
National Rankings: #17/-
PairWise Ranking: #12
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 4th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Mike Eaves (6th season at UW, 122-94-30 .557)
This Season: 15-16-7 Overall, 11-12-5 WCHA (6^th)
Team Offense: 2.79 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.55 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.0% (30 of 176)
Penalty Kill: 81.2% (147 of 181)
Last Season: 19-18-4 Overall, 12-13-3 WCHA (6^th)
Key Players: Freshman F Kyle Turris (11-22-33), Junior F Ben Street (13-16-29), Sophomore D Jamie McBain (3-18-21), Senior D Kyle Klubertanz (4-15-19), Junior G Shane Connelly (14-15-5, 2.44 GAA, .912 SV, 1 SO)
NCAA Championships: 6 (most recent, 2006)
NCAA Appearance: 22nd (most recent, 2006)

What to watch for: Which team will North Dakota fans rally behind? Or will the Sioux faithful simply cheer for multiple overtimes? There will be representatives in the Kohl Center this weekend ready to whisk Kyle Turris away for the pro career that awaits him.

Who will win: Denver is playing its best hockey of the season after a shaky second half. The Pioneers missed out on the NCAAs last season, and are driven to return to Denver for the Frozen Four. Wisconsin will keep it close in front of the home crowd, but not close enough. DU 3-1.

Midwest Regional Final: Denver and North Dakota will meet for the sixth time this season with everything on the line. Both goaltenders are capable of taking over the game, and whichever team dictates its style of play will advance to the Frozen Four. I have a feeling that this game goes to overtime, where UND’s scoring depth will become a factor. UND 3-2 (OT).

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back throughout the weekend for more previews, predictions, analysis, and reaction from the NCAA tournament.

Here’s a closer look at the four teams in the NCAA West Regional (Colorado Springs, Colorado):

Game 1: (1) New Hampshire vs. (4) Notre Dame (Friday, March 28, 6:30 p.m. ET)

New Hampshire Team Profile
National Rankings: #5/#4
PairWise Ranking: #4
KRACH Strength of Schedule:11th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Dick Umile (18th season at UNH, 424-206-66, .657)
This Season: 25-9-3 Overall, 19-5-3 Hockey East (1st)
Team Offense: 3.49 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.35 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.6% (33 of 177)
Penalty Kill: 85.7% (162 of 189)
Last Season: 26-11-2 Overall (NCAA Northeast Regional Semifinalist), 18-7-2 Hockey East (1st)
Key Players: Senior F Matt Fornataro (18-28-46), Senior F Mike Radja (19-24-43), Freshman F James vanRiemsdyk (11-20-31), Senior D Brad Flaishans (5-17-22), Senior G Kevin Regan (23-7-1, 2.12 GAA, .933 SV, 3 SO, Hobey Baker Finalist)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 28th (most recent, 2007)

Notre Dame Team Profile
National Rankings: #12/#12
PairWise Ranking: #13 (tied)
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 27th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Jeff Jackson (3rd season at Notre Dame, 69-41-11, .616)
This Season: 24-15-4 Overall, 15-9-4 CCHA (4th)
Team Offense: 2.79 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.05 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.3% (37 of 242)
Penalty Kill: 89.2% (174 of 195)
Last Season: 32-7-3 Overall (NCAA Midwest Regional Finalist), 24-4-3 CCHA
Key Players: Sophomore F Ryan Thang (16-11-27), Senior F Mark Van Guilder (11-14-25), Sophomore D Kyle Lawson (4-20-24), Junior G Jordan Pearce (20-14-4, 1.94 GAA, .917 SV, 2 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 3rd (most recent, 2007)

What to watch for: How does New Hampshire respond to last weekend’s heartbreaking loss to Boston College in the Hockey East semifinals? (The Wildcats led 2-0 after one period before the Eagles stormed back, winning 5-4 in triple overtime.) How does Notre Dame move on after losing its leading scorer, Erik Condra (15-23-38), in the first round of the CCHA playoffs? And how does Notre Dame play its defensive style on the wide sheet in Colorado Springs?

Who will win: With Condra in the lineup, this would have been my upset special. I still think the Irish have a chance in this game, but they need to score early. I have the Wildcats in a close contest. UNH 2-1.

Game 2: (2) Colorado College vs. (3) Michigan State (Friday, March 28, 10:00 p.m. ET)

Colorado College Team Profile
National Rankings: #6/#6
PairWise Ranking: #5
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 7th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Scott Owens (9th season at Colorado College, 223-120-25, .640)
This Season: 28-11-1 Overall, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.12 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.8% (35 of 177)
Penalty Kill: 89.4% (143 of 160)
Last Season: 18-17-4 Overall, 13-12-3 WCHA (5th)
Key Players: Junior F Chad Rau (28-14-42), Senior F Jimmy Kilpatrick (15-16-31), Sophomore F Andreas Vlassopolous (8-22-30), Senior D Jack Hillen (6-31-37), Freshman G Richard Bachmann (25-8-1, 1.82 GAA, .933 SV, 4 SO)
NCAA Championships: 2 (most recent, 1957)
NCAA Appearance: 19th (most recent, 2006)

Michigan State Team Profile
National Rankings: #9/#9
PairWise Ranking: #9 (tied)
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 20th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Rick Comley (6th season at MSU, 141-84-24, .614)
This Season: 24-11-5 Overall, 19-6-3 CCHA (3rd)
Team Offense: 3.27 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.35 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.8% (46 of 221)
Penalty Kill: 86.7% (156 of 180)
Last Season: 26-13-3 Overall (National Champions), 15-10-3 CCHA
Key Players: Junior F Tim Kennedy (19-21-40), Senior Bryan Lerg (20-18-38), Junior F Justin Abdelkader (18-19-37), Sophomore D Mike Ratchuk (6-19-25), Junior G Jeff Lerg (23-11-5, 2.23 GAA, .925 SV, 4 SO, Hobey Baker finalist)
NCAA Championships: 3 (most recent, 2007)
NCAA Appearance: 26th (most recent, 2004)

What to watch for: This matchup features a goaltending duel between the WCHA Player of the Year (Bachman) and Hobey Baker finalist Jeff Lerg. As I wrote here, Bachman should have been a finalist over Lerg, and we’ll find out on the ice. Michigan State will have trouble adjusting to the big sheet, where Colorado College has lost just twice this season. How do the Tigers respond to two losses last weekend at the WCHA Final Five?

Who will win: The Tigers have both the speedy forwards and mobile defenseman to cause the Spartans fits. Colorado College wins in front of the home crowd. CC 3-2.

West Regional Final: I still feel like CC is a Frozen Four team, but they’ll have to play their best game to get there. New Hampshire plays on Olympic ice (100×200) at Whittmore Center, and will give the Tigers all they can handle. This one may very well go to overtime. CC 3-2.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back throughout the weekend for more previews, predictions, analysis, and reaction from the NCAA tournament.

Here’s a closer look at the four teams in the NCAA East Regional (Albany, New York):

Game 1: (2) St. Cloud State vs. (3) Clarkson (Friday, March 28, 4:00 p.m. ET)

St. Cloud Team Profile
National Rankings: #8/#8
PairWise Ranking: #8
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 9th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Bob Motzko (3rd season at SCSU, 63-42-16, .587)
This Season: 19-15-5 Overall, 12-12-4 WCHA (4th)
Team Offense: 3.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.36 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.2% (46 of 198)
Penalty Kill: 87.1% (121 of 139)
Last Season: 22-11-7 Overall (NCAA East Regional Semifinalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Sophomore F Ryan Lasch (25-28-53, Hobey Baker Finalist), Freshman F Garrett Roe (18-26-44), Sophomore F Andreas Nodl (18-26-44), Senior D Aaron Brocklehurst (4-18-22), Sophomore G Jase Weslosky (16-12-2, 2.12 GAA, .931 SV, 3 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 7th (Most recent, 2007)

Clarkson Team Profile
National Rankings: #11/#10
PairWise Ranking: #9 (tied)
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 31st of 59 teams
Head Coach: George Roll (5th season at Clarkson, 95-79-20, .541)
This Season: 25-8-5 Overall, 13-5-4 ECAC (1st)
Team Offense: 2.86 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.43 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 14.0% (24 of 171)
Penalty Kill: 83.8% (155 of 185)
Last Season: 25-9-5 Overall (NCAA East Regional Semifinalist), 13-5-4 ECAC (2nd)
Key Players: Sophomore F Matt Beca (10-24-34), Junior F Steve Zalewski (21-12-33), Senior D Grant Clitsome (5-16-21), Senior G David Leggio (21-11-4, 2.24 GAA, .918 SV, 5 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 20th (Most recent, 2007)

What to watch for: These two teams appeared at the same regional last season (in Rochester, NY) but did not meet. St. Cloud State lost to Maine 4-1, while Clarkson fell to Massachusetts, 1-0 in overtime. If the Huskies win this game, it will be their first NCAA tournament victory in school history, and with a loss, the Clarkson Golden Knights would finish with an identical record as last season.

Who will win: It’s time for St. Cloud to put one in the win column. The Huskies have skill up front and a devastating power play, and that translates to victory. SCSU 4-2.

Game 2: (1) Michigan vs. (4) Niagara (Friday, March 28, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Michigan Team Profile
National Rankings: #1/#1
PairWise Ranking: #1
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 12th of 59 teams
Head Coach: “Red“ Berenson (24th season at Michigan, 642-297-68, .671)
This Season: 31-5-4 Overall, 20-4-4 CCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.98 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.08 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.4% (43 of 211)
Penalty Kill: 86.2% (187 of 217)
Last Season: 26-14-1 Overall (NCAA West Regional Semifinalist), 18-9-1 CCHA
Key Players: Senior F Kevin Porter (28-28-56, Hobey Baker Finalist), Senior F Chad Kolarik (28-20-48), Freshman F Max Pacioretty (14-20-34), Junior D Mark Mitera (2-20-22), Junior G Billy Sauer (28-4-3, 1.97 GAA, .924 SV, 3 SO)
NCAA Championships: 9 (most recent, 1998)
NCAA Appearance: 30th (most recent, 2007)

Niagara Team Profile
National Rankings: #19/-
PairWise Ranking: #22 (tied)
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 49th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Dave Burkholder (7th season at Niagara, 128-106-22, .543)
This Season: 22-10-4 Overall, 12-6-2 CHA (2nd)
Team Offense: 3.53 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.58 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.3% (41 of 176)
Penalty Kill: 80.9% (127 of 157)
Last Season: 18-13-6 Overall, 9-5-6 CHA
Key Players: Junior F Vinco Rocco (14-31-45), Senior F Matt Caruana (16-22-38), Junior F Ted Cook (19-12-31), Sophomore D Tyler Gotto (2-21-23), Junior G Juliano Pagliero (17-6-4, 2.26 GAA, .929 SV, 4 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 3rd (most recent, 2004)

What to watch for: Are the Wolverines ripe for an upset after experiencing success (GLI Championship, CCHA regular season title, CCHA post-season title) all year long? Can the Purple Eagles keep this game close?

Who will win: Michigan is too deep and too talented. The Purple Eagles upset New Hampshire in its first ever NCAA appearance (2000), but ran into juggernaut North Dakota to end that Cinderella story.  Niagara will fall to another powerhouse this time around. Michigan 5-1.

East Regional Final: A Michigan/St. Cloud matchup is intriguing. The Huskies are a team that can skate with the Wolverines, and if Michigan gets in penalty trouble, look out. I see the Wolverines prevailing in a close one. Michigan 4-3.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back throughout the weekend for more previews, predictions, analysis, and reaction from the NCAA tournament.

Expectations were not high for the Princeton Tigers this season. After finishing last year at 15-16-3 (10-10-2 ECAC), Guy Gadowsky’s club lost eight seniors, including three of its top five scorers, four defensemen, and goaltender B.J. Sklapsky (7-4-1, 2.60 GAA, .911 SV, 1 SO).

There were some signs of hope: freshman goalie Zane Kalemba (8-11-1, 2.89 GAA, .891 SV) was a solid replacement, and leading scorer Lee Jubinville (11-18-29 in 32 games) was back for his junior season.

The coaches and the media tabbed Princeton to finish eighth in the ECAC this season after a sixth-place finish last year.  And when the team went into the Christmas break at 5-7-0, that prediction looked about right, but things would get worse before they got better.

In the first game after the holiday break, the MSU-Mankato Mavericks routed Princeton 6-1, outshooting the Stripes 34-19. A sign of the times: a Princeton defenseman bounced his clearing attempt off of goalie Zane Kalemba and into his own net.

At 5-8-0, Princeton wasn’t playing as poorly as the 2002-03 Tiger team that went 3-26-2, but it had to feel like it…

And then the schedule turned to 2008. Like UND, which has gone 17-3-3 this calendar year after ending 2007 at 9-7-1, the Tigers have elevated their play over the past three months. Princeton has gone 15-5-0 in ‘08, losing all five of those games by a single goal. Four of those five losses were on the road, and the fifth was a 4-3 setback in Game 2 of the ECAC quarterfinals against Yale, a game Princeton led 2-0 in the first period. Princeton won the other two games of that best-of-three series against Yale, 3-0 and 4-0.

Over this twenty-game stretch, the Tigers are scoring 3.7 goals per game and allowing only 1.9. In the year 2008, Princeton has scored two or more goals in every game.

ECAC Player of the Year Lee Jubinville (12-26-38 in 33 games) has been a key component in the Tigers’ stretch run. The 5’10”, 165 pounder from Edmonton, Alberta has scored seven goals and added 16 assists in 2008. Jubinville is one of ten finalists for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award, the first Princeton Tiger ever selected to the top ten. Hobey Baker himself represented Princeton before World War I.

“He’s a very good player,” North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol said of Jubinville. “He was one of the best players in the Alberta Junior Hockey League a few years ago, too.”

In addition to Jubinville, two other Tigers are scoring at better than a point per game. Junior forward Brett Wilson (15-20-35) has been a solid contributor for three seasons, while sophomore forward Cam Macintyre’s thirty point season (12 goals, 18 assists) was unexpected after a rookie campaign of nine goals and four assists.

Sophomore goaltender Zane Kalemba (19-10-0) has been a pleasant surprise for the Tigers. Kalmeba carries a 2.36 goals-against average and a .918 save percentage into the national tournament, and has posted five shutouts this season.

Another key for Princeton this year has been the play of its freshman class. Of the six first-year skaters, five have scored ten or more points (including two freshman defenseman), and all six have appeared in 24 or more games.

Remember that five years ago, this team won three games. TOTAL. Since then, the Tigers have seen improvement every year: five wins in 03-04, eight in 04-05, ten in 05-06, and fifteen last year. This season’s 21 victories (21-13-0) are the most in school history, a history that dates back to the year 1900.

By contrast, North Dakota has won 21 or more games 28 times in the past fifty years.

The Stripes (21-13-0, 14-8-0 ECAC) finished second to Clarkson (21-12-4, 15-4-3 ECAC) in the conference race. The Clarkson Golden Knights will face St. Cloud State in the East Regional (Albany, NY) on Friday afternoon.

Despite its second-half success, Princeton would not have made the national tournament as an at-large team. The Tigers played their way into the NCAAs by winning the ECAC Hockey Championship in Albany, New York, defeating Harvard 4-1. Zane Kalemba stopped 34 shots (and 61 of 62 for the weekend) to win the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award.

“I’ve never seen a performance like that before,” said fourth-year head coach Guy Gadowsky of his goalie’s jaw-dropping tournament acrobatics. Gadowsky was recently awarded the Tim Taylor award as ECAC coach of the year.

This is the 23rd NCAA appearance for North Dakota, and the 2nd for Princeton. The Fighting Sioux have seven national championships, while the Tigers are looking for their first NCAA tournament victory.

Princeton Team Profile
National Rankings: #13/#13
PairWise Ranking: 16th
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 34th
Head Coach: Guy Gadowsky (4th season at Princeton, 54-67-9, .488)
This Season: 21-13-0 Overall, 14-8-0 ECAC (2nd)
Special Teams: Power Play 17.2% (29 of 169), Penalty Kill 85.3% (122 of 143)
Last Season: 15-16-3, 10-10-2 ECAC (t-6th)
Key Players: Junior F Lee Jubinville (12-26-38, Hobey Baker finalist), Junior F Brett Wilson (15-20-35), Sophomore F Cam MacIntyre (12-18-30), Senior D Mike Moore (7-17-24), Sophomore G Zane Kalemba (19-10-0, 2.36 GAA, .918 SV, 5 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile
National Rankings: #3/#3
PairWise Ranking: 3rd
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 1st
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (4th season at UND, 104-55-15, .641)
This Season: 26-10-4 Overall, 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Specialty Teams: Power Play 18.8% (34 of 181), Penalty Kill 87.5% (154 of 176)
Last Season: 24-14-5 (Frozen Four semifinalist), 13-10-5 WCHA (3rd)
Key Players: Junior F T.J. Oshie (18-23-41, Hobey Baker finalist), Junior F Ryan Duncan (14-22-36), Sophomore F Chris VandeVelde (15-17-32), Sophomore D Chay Genoway (7-19-26), Senior D Taylor Chorney (3-21-24), Senior G Jean-Philippe Lamoureux (25-10-4, 1.65 GAA, .934 SV, 6 SO, Hobey Baker finalist)

By The Numbers
Last Meeting: November 1, 2002 (Princeton, NJ). Sophomore forward Brandon Bochenski netted four goals (his second hat trick of the season) and freshman phenom Zach Parise had five assists as UND spoiled Princeton’s home opener, downing the Tigers 5-2 in front of 1,715 at Hobey Baker Rink. The teams were tied 2-2 late in the second period before Bochenski broke the game open with goals at 18:04 and 19:58. Bochenski added a rare three-on-four goal during a rash of penalties in the third period.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 2-0. The only other meeting between the two teams was in the consolation final of the Badger Showdown on December 30, 2000. North Dakota won 5-4 in a game that saw 101 shots on net (65 by the Sioux).

Game News and Notes
UND goaltender Jean-Philippe Lamoureux enters the weekend leading the nation in goals-against average (1.6510) and is second in save percentage (.934). Lamoureux is also tied for first with six shutouts, and has given up exactly one goal 16 times this season.  Princeton netminder Zane Kalemba has five shutouts to his credit. North Dakota boasts the nation’s best defense, giving up only 1.77 goals per game, while Princeton is allowing 2.65. The Tigers have scored 3.26 goals/game; UND, an even 3.00. North Dakota has outscored opponents 43-12 in the first period this year. Princeton is 18-3-0 this season when leading or tied after two periods, partly because the Tigers have outscored opponents 43-31 in the third period. As a testament to UND’s difficult schedule, consider this: North Dakota has played 35 of its 40 games against the top 25 teams in the country, going 21-10-4 (.657) in those games. Princeton, on the other hand, has played only 13 games against those same teams, with just five victories and eight losses. Fourth-seeded teams won two of the four #1 vs. #4 matchups in last season’s NCAA tournament, and all four games were decided by one goal. The Tigers have scored six short-handed goals this season. With Jubinville, Oshie, and Lamoureux on the ice in Madison, this is the only NCAA first-round matchup to boast more than one Hobey Baker finalist.

The Prediction
Both the Sioux and Tigers play their home games on NHL-sized rinks (85×200), and will require some adjustment to play on the larger surface (97×200) in Madison. Princeton will have a fair number of Denver and Wisconsin fans in its corner, but it won’t much matter. North Dakota has an advantage in all areas and the veteran leadership to advance to the Midwest Regional Final. UND 4-2.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. For analysis of the NCAA regional brackets, click here. For reaction to the Hobey Baker top ten, click here. Stop back later this week for previews and predictions from all four regional sites, and check back after Saturday’s game for more commentary and a complete recap of the Midwest Regional.

Well, here’s my attempt to summarize three days of hockey in one cohesive column. I’ll start with notes about each team and end with a few observations.

In order of their performance at the WCHA Final Five, here are the tournament participants from worst to first:

#5 Colorado College

The Tigers entered the weekend looking to claim their first ever Broadmoor trophy, and left with their collective tiger tails between their legs. Consecutive losses to Minnesota and North Dakota dropped CC to a #2 seed in its home regional.

Is it irony, coincidence, or bad luck that Colorado College has never hoisted the Broadmoor, named after their old building? It’s like 10,000 spoons when all you need is a knife….

Colorado College suffered from lapses in both games. The Tigers scored early in the second period against Minnesota, but gave up the tying goal less than a minute later. Against North Dakota, CC gave up three power play goals on seven UND opportunities. The Tigers came into Saturday’s semifinal with the nation’s best penalty kill (90.8%).

CC became just the second #1 seed in the 16-year history of the Final Five format to lose two tournament games. In 2006, #1 Minnesota lost 8-7 (OT) to #4 St. Cloud State and lost 4-0 to #2 Wisconsin in the third-place game.

The Tigers have the toughest of the four NCAA regional brackets, playing #3 Michigan State in the first round. #1 New Hampshire and #4 Notre Dame are also in the mix for a Frozen Four berth from the West Regional.

Head coach Scott Owens was frustrated by his team’s overall play and difficulty killing penalties, and will surely have his team’s attention this week in practice.

“I’m concerned about our inconsistent play going into next weekend,” Owens said.

#4 St. Cloud State

It’s difficult to judge SCSU, since we only saw them play in the Thursday play-in game against Minnesota, but they did not play particularly well. On a positive note, the Huskies and Gophers did play in front of a sold-out crowd of 19,232, smashing the play-in game record of 16,449.

“We’re not happy with the way we played tonight,” said St. Cloud head coach Bob Motzko. “(In the) first period we had a very poor period and it looked like we had stage-itis.”

The Huskies finished one for seven on the power play and never led in the hockey game. Next up for #2 seeded St. Cloud is a regional matchup against #3 Clarkson in Albany, NY. #1 Michigan and #4 Niagara are the other two teams in the East Regional.

#3 North Dakota

The Fighting Sioux followed up a lackluster performance against Denver with their best effort in a month, downing the Colorado College Tigers 4-2 to leapfrog CC and claim a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. For UND, it was important not only to win, but to play well and gain momentum for next weekend.

In the Friday semifinal, North Dakota was unable to score on either of two 5 on 3 situations, and that was the difference in the game. UND finished 0 for 4 on the power play, and T.J. Oshie and Ryan Duncan were held scoreless. The only bright spot for the Sioux was that there was another game to play on Saturday, a game with playoff implications (as Jim Dahl correctly pointed out here, it was important for North Dakota to play Colorado College head-to-head).

“Today was more about our performance than anything else,” said UND head coach Dave Hakstol about Saturday’s semifinal victory. “We didn’t feel very good last night about our performance. I thought we got back to the way we need to play.”

“Getting a win under us is going to build some confidence, and hopefully lead to a good week of practice,” agreed T.J. Oshie, who notched a goal and an assist.

North Dakota heads to Madison, Wisconsin as the #1 seed in a regional that includes two other WCHA teams. #2 Denver will play #3 Wisconsin, while UND entertains #4 Princeton in the Tiger’s second-ever NCAA tournament appearance.

#2 Denver

It’s hard not to put the Pioneers number one for the weekend, since they took home the Broadmoor trophy and moved their unbeaten streak in the Xcel Center to six games, but I gave the nod to Minnesota.

Denver played well in victories over North Dakota and Minnesota, allowing only a single goal to each team while scoring just enough to win. Both games went down to the wire and could have gone either way.

In Friday’s semifinal, Anthony Maiani broke a 1-1 tie with 80 seconds remaining and Matt Glasser added an empty-netter with 6 ticks left. The key for Denver was killing off all four UND power plays, including two extended 5 on 3’s.

In Saturday’s championship game, Denver responded with two second-period goals after Ryan Flynn staked Minnesota to a 1-0 lead, and held on in a furious third period. The Gophers outshot DU 14-4 in the final twenty minutes but could not solve Peter Mannino, who made 34 of 35 saves for the game.

As I mentioned above, Denver is headed to the Midwest Regional in Madison to take on the Badgers, who made the NCAA tournament despite a losing record (15-16-7).

#1 Minnesota

Yes, I know the Gophers lost in the championship game. But what this team accomplished after a marathon first-round series against MSU-Mankato was remarkable. Minnesota outplayed its opponents (St. Cloud State, Colorado College, Denver) for the better part of all three games and got great goaltending from freshman Alex Kangas (94 of 99 saves, 5 goals allowed). Kangas was named MVP of the tournament.

Minnesota played themselves up to #11 in the PairWise rankings and will travel to Worcester, Massachusetts this weekend. The #3 seeded Gophers will face #2 Boston College in the first round. If they advance, they will play the winner of #1 Miami (OH) and #4 Air Force in the Northeast Regional final.

And my final five observations of the weekend:

#5: I thought all three officials (Shepherd, Adam, and Anderson) did a good job throughout the tournament.

#4: I saw another #18 Hoogsteen jersey walking the concourses at the X. And I thought I was the only one…

#3: I didn’t think there would still be ducks at the Embassy Suites.

#2: Sioux fans, the Holy Cross references have to go. Yes, I understand that it was an upset, but get over it. Why not bring up the Sioux/Gopher regional final from last season? To celebrate another team’s victory over your rival instead of your team’s victory over your rival is weird to me.

#1: Sioux fans, celebrate this quote from Dave Hakstol: “It seemed like there were 7,000 to 8,000 UND fans (at the Xcel Center). Maybe some of that crew will make the journey (to Madison). It’d be great to have a strong contingent, and I’m sure we will.” North Dakota fans always travel well, and this weekend was no exception. It was great to see you all there.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your suggestions and comments, particularily if you attended the WCHA Final Five and have a story or observation to share.

As soon as the NCAA Men’s Hockey selection show ends, three questions inevitably come up:

Which is the toughest bracket?
Where are the likely upsets?
Which teams will make the Frozen Four?

And for most of us, we haven’t seen enough of the teams from the other conferences to make more than a guess about the game results. In that respect, it’s much like filling out a March Madness bracket for college hoops.

Fortunately, there’s a system that allows us to compare teams against each other and calculate each team’s expected winning percentage against any other.

The system is called KRACH, short for “Ken’s Ratings for American College Hockey”. KRACH rates teams based on their won-loss records against each other, and a key component is that a team’s strength of schedule is based on the ratings themselves, and as such cannot easily be distorted by teams with strong records against weak opposition.

The ratings are on an odds scale, so if Team A’s KRACH rating is three times as large as Team B’s, Team A would be expected to amass a winning percentage of .750 and Team B a winning percentage of .250 if the two teams played each other enough times. The correct ratings are defined such that the “expected” winning percentage for a team in the games it’s already played is equal to its “actual” winning percentage.

A more complete explanation can be found here. The KRACH ratings for each team can be found here. Note that all 59 Division I tournament-eligible teams are included in the ratings, so all tournament teams can easily be compared.

Using these ratings, let’s revisit the questions we posed above.

Which is the toughest bracket?

By every measure, the West Regional in Colorado Springs, Colorado is the toughest bracket. New Hampshire (427.7 KRACH) has the most difficult road of any #1 seed, with #4 Notre Dame (192.5) in the first round and, should they advance, the winner of #2 Colorado College (585.3) and #3 Michigan State (294.5) in the regional final. So looking at these four teams, here are each team’s chances of advancing to the Frozen Four:

#1 New Hampshire: 33.04%
#2 Colorado College: 42.05%
#3 Michigan State: 15.70%
#4 Notre Dame: 9.22%

Note that #2 seed Colorado College is the favorite to come out of the West Regional, despite being a lower seed than New Hampshire. This has nothing to do with home-ice advantage, as that factor is not included in the ratings.

Remember, the KRACH ratings are on an odds scale, and comparing each team’s rating gives us an expected winning percentage. Anything can happen in a one game format, but these percentages give us an idea of what would happen if the games were played enough times.

The next toughest bracket is found in the Midwest Regional (Madison, WI), where #1 North Dakota (613.7) will face #4 Princeton (157.1) in the opener. Should they advance to the regional final, they would meet either #2 Denver University (471.9) or #3 Wisconsin (230.4). Each team’s chance of advancing to the Frozen Four is listed below:

#1 North Dakota: 49.23%
#2 Denver: 33.53%
#3 Wisconsin: 11.11%
#4 Princeton: 6.13%

We move next to the East Regional (Albany, NY), where #1 Michigan (769.5) takes on #4 Niagara (97.14) while #2 St. Cloud State (285.5) battles #3 Clarkson (180.7). This bracket is slightly stronger than the Northeast Regional (found below) because Niagara is a tougher first round opponent than Air Force would have been. Here are the percentages:

#1 Michigan: 67.53%
#2 St. Cloud State: 19.84%
#3 Clarkson: 9.37%
#4 Niagara: 3.26%

And finally, the Northeast Regional (Worcester, MA): #1 Miami (558.7) draws #4 Air Force (55.05) in round one, while #2 Boston College (265.7) takes on #3 Minnesota (268.4). Minnesota has a slightly better chance of coming out of this bracket than Boston College, as you’ll see below:

#1 Miami: 61.59%
#2 Boston College: 18.29%
#3 Minnesota: 18.58%
#4 Air Force: 1.53%

So from the percentages above, we can see that the likely “upsets” are #3 Minnesota over #2 Boston College in the Northeast Regional semifinal and #2 Colorado College over #1 New Hampshire in the West Regional final. The #4 with the best shot of knocking off a #1 seed? Notre Dame.

And now to question 3:

Which teams will make the Frozen Four?

Here are each team’s chances to win a regional and advance to the Frozen Four, listed in the PairWise seed order that the committee used to fill in the bracket:

#1 Michigan: 67.53%
#2 Miami: 61.59%
#3 North Dakota: 49.23%
#4 New Hampshire: 33.04%
#5 Colorado College: 42.05%
#6 Boston College: 18.29%
#7 Denver: 33.53%
#8 St. Cloud State: 19.84%
#9 Michigan State: 15.70%
#10 Clarkson: 9.37%
#11 Minnesota: 18.58%
#12 Wisconsin: 11.11%
#13 Notre Dame: 9.22%
#14 Princeton: 6.13%
#15 Niagara: 3.26%
#16 Air Force: 1.53%

So by the numbers, look for Michigan, Miami, North Dakota, and Colorado College in the Frozen Four, but don’t be surprised to see Denver, New Hampshire, St. Cloud, or Minnesota in the mix as well. As they say: anything can happen, and probably will.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back later this week for regional tournament previews and predictions.

The question came up in the Denver game thread whether UND could still get a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament if Minnesota won tonight, giving UND a shot at CC.

Since the question is probably of general interest, I’ll repeat my answer here:

Looking at the CC vs. UND comparison only, 2 CC losses + 1 UND win (including 1 over CC) should flip TUC to UND and possibly RPI, plus give UND one more H2H point. If UND doesn’t take RPI, that would leave the comparison at 3-3 with CC owning RPI and UND H2H (I’m not sure which the committee would use as a tie-breaker); if UND takes RPI, UND wins the comparison 4-2 and stands a really good shot at a #1 seed.

RPI should be within .001 or so in that situation, so some of the other games could nudge it around enough to matter.

Of course, other things could move a little, with the comparison so tight, but a Minnesota win over CC and subsequent UND win over CC seems to be UND’s best chance to maximize its PWR now.

This is a quick overview of the Final Five tournament in St. Paul.  I’ll add more as the weekend progresses. And yes, I know the tournament is reseeded after the first round, but I think it’s more interesting to note where the teams finished in the conference, so I’m leaving them how they are.

Thursday night (7:07 p.m): #5 St. Cloud vs. #7 Minnesota
St. Cloud finished off the Badgers in two games; the Gophers played over 260 minutes of hockey (including five overtime periods) in their 3-game set with MSU-Mankato. The Huskies have had Minnesota’s number lately, and it continues at the XCel Center. SCSU 4-2.

Friday afternoon (2:07 p.m.): #2 North Dakota vs. #3 Denver
Both schools bring a great deal of talent to the ice. UND has an edge on the power play and between the pipes, and brings more experience to the Final Five. Lamoureux will hear his name called as a Hobey finalist on Thursday night and back it up with a strong performance on Friday afternoon. UND 3-1. For a complete preview of this matchup, click here.

Friday night (7:07 p.m.): #1 Colorado College vs. #5 St. Cloud State
The Tigers will be rested and ready, but it won’t be easy. This matchup could boast three or four Hobey Baker finalists, and it will be one to remember. I’m going with Colorado College, but if they get into penalty trouble, look out. CC 4-3.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back after Friday’s games for reaction, commentary, analysis, and more predictions.

Well, I’m not too impressed with myself. I correctly predicted only 5 of the 10 Hobey finalists, after picking 6 out of 10 last year.

First of all, the five I got right (I’ve left the season statistics as they were when the committee narrowed the field down to ten):

Skaters:

Jr. F Nathan Gerbe, Boston College 27-25-52

Sr. F Ryan Jones, Miami (OH) 30-16-46

So. F Ryan Lasch, St. Cloud State 25-26-51

Sr. F Kevin Porter, Michigan 28-28-56

Goaltender:

Sr. Jean-Philippe Lamoureux, North Dakota
24-9-4, 1.6312 GAA, .934 SV, 6 SO

The committee also picked the following three skaters…

Jr. F Lee Jubinville, Princeton 12-26-38

Sr. F Simon Lambert, RIT 21-30-51

Jr. F T.J. Oshie, North Dakota 17-22-39

…while I had these three on my list:

Sr. F Matt Fornataro, New Hampshire 18-27-45Sr. D Jack Hillen, Colorado College 6-30-36Jr. F Chad Rau, Colorado College 27-14-41

I just don’t see Jubinville ahead of Fornataro and Rau. The Princeton Tigers played the 34th most difficult schedule in Division I, while Colorado College and New Hampshire came in 7th and 11th, respectively, in that category. Jack Hillen led all defenseman in scoring, but no blueliners were selected this year. And I’m a big Oshie fan, but I was surprised to see him on the list.

The committee tabbed these two goaltenders to join Lamoureux in the final ten…

Jr. Jeff Lerg, Michigan State
23-11-5, 2.2260 GAA, .925 SV, 4 SO

Sr. Kevin Regan, New Hampshire
23-6-1, 2.0689 GAA, .934 SV, 3 SO

…but I had selected these two:

Fr. Richard Bachman, Colorado College
25-6-1, 1.7485 GAA, .935 SV, 4 SO

Jr. Jeff Zatkoff, Miami (OH)
25-6-1, 1.6831 GAA, .934 SV, 3 SO

I can see Kevin Regan in the top ten over Jeff Zatkoff, because the Wildcats faced much tougher competition this year (strength of schedule #11 vs. Miami #24). But there is absolutely NO reason why Jeff Lerg should be on this list ahead of Richard Bachman. The Colorado College freshman has a better record, a lower goals-against average, a better save percentage, one more shutout, and played a tougher schedule this season. I don’t care that Bachman is a freshman; the top ten selections should go to the best players in the nation, and Richard Bachman has had a better season than Jeff Lerg.

Agree, disagree, let me know what you think. Who should have been in the Hobey top ten? And who would you leave out? We’ve got some time before the Hobey Hat Trick will be announced, so who would you select as your top three?

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back next week for my Hobey Hat Trick prediction.

There’s no question that these two teams have history: bad blood, controversy, and postseason clashes. But rather than looking at the past, both schools are treating this Friday’s game as an opportunity to gain momentum, gear up for the NCAA playoffs, and play for the WCHA playoff championship on Saturday night.

After narrowly missing out on last year’s NCAA tournament (and the West Regional held at Pepsi Center in Denver), the Pioneers seem poised for a run toward this year’s Frozen Four, also held at Pepsi Center. Denver is currently tied for 6th in the PairWise rankings, which mimic the method used by the NCAA Selection Committee to determine participants for the NCAA Division I men’s hockey tournament.

They will have to make that playoff run without one of their leading scorers. Sophomore Brock Trotter, who had amassed season totals of 13 goals and 18 assists in 24 games, signed a pro contract with the Montreal Canadiens. Trotter played his last game as a Pioneer on January 19th against Bemidji State. Freshman Tyler Bozak (17-15-32 in 38 games) is the only DU player with more points than Trotter’s 31.

It has been a tale of two seasons for Denver. The Pioneers opened the season with a sparkling record of 17-4-0, but sputtered to the end of the regular season, going 5-9-1 over their last 15 games before sweeping Minnesota-Duluth at home last weekend.

UND, on the other hand, spent the first half of the season in “Splitsville”, splitting eight consecutive series. The Sioux have been red-hot in 2008, going 16-2-3 to climb to 5th in the PairWise. North Dakota saw its 18-game unbeaten streak (15-0-3) come to an end in Game 2 of its WCHA first-round playoff series against Michigan Tech, but rebounded to defeat the Huskies 2-1 on Sunday night to advance to the Final Five.

Denver Team Profile
National Rankings: #6/#6
PairWise Ranking: 6th (tied)
Head Coach: George Gwozdecky (14th season at DU, 321-204-41, .603)
This Season: 24-13-1 Overall, 16-11-1 WCHA (3rd)
Special Teams: Power Play 14.2% (27 of 190), Penalty Kill 88.6% (156 of 176)
Last Season: 21-15-4, 13-11-4 WCHA (4th)
Key Players: Freshman F Tyler Bozak (17-15-32), Sophomore F Rhett Rakhshani (13-13-26), Freshman F Kyle Ostrow (10-13-23), Junior D Chris Butler (3-14-17), Senior G Peter Mannino (23-13-1, 2.26 GAA, .916 SV, 6 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile
National Rankings: #4/#5
PairWise Ranking: 5th
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (4th season at UND, 103-54-15, .642)
This Season: 25-9-4 Overall, 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Specialty Teams: Power Play 18.2% (31 of 170), Penalty Kill 88.1% (148 of 168)
Last Season: 24-14-5 (Frozen Four semifinalist), 13-10-5 WCHA (3rd)
Key Players: Junior F T.J. Oshie (17-22-39), Junior F Ryan Duncan (14-22-36), Sophomore F Chris VandeVelde (14-16-30), Sophomore D Chay Genoway (6-19-25), Senior D Robbie Bina (2-22-24), Senior G Jean-Philippe Lamoureux (24-9-4, 1.63 GAA, .934 SV, 6 SO)

By The Numbers
Last Meeting: February 16, 2008 (Grand Forks, ND). UND wins 4-1 to complete the weekend sweep of the Pioneers. Sioux junior winger Andrew Kozek scored a hat trick in Friday’s opener, bringing North Dakota back from a 4-1 deficit to win 5-4. The Sioux scored eight of the last nine goals in the series.
Last Meeting at the Final Five: March 18, 2005 (St. Paul, MN). In what will forever be known as the Robbie Bina game, Denver scored 42 seconds into overtime to defeat North Dakota 2-1 and advance to the WCHA championship game. Gabe Gauthier scored the game-winner, his second of the night, and Glenn Fischer made 29 saves for the Pioneers. Freshman goaltender Jean-Philippe Lamoureux stopped 30 shots in a losing effort.
Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 128-109-7 (.539).

Game News and Notes
UND goaltender Jean-Philippe Lamoureux enters the weekend leading the nation in goals-against average (1.6312) and is second in save percentage (.934). Both Lamoureux and Pioneer senior goaltender Peter Mannino have six shutouts on the season (tied for first among NCAA goalies), and Lamoureux has given up exactly one goal 16 times this season. With the departure of Brock Trotter, Denver freshman forward Tyler Bozak is the team’s active scoring leader with 17 goals and 15 assists. Bozak could become the second consecutive Pioneer freshman to lead the team in scoring, a feat Brock Trotter pulled off last season. North Dakota boasts the nation’s best defense, giving up only 1.74 goals per game. Denver is eighth at 2.26. UND has scored 3.03 goals per contest; DU, 2.87. The Sioux have played well on the road this season, posting a 10-4-2 record away from Ralph Engelstad Arena. The Pioneers have struggled, going 8-9-0 on the road. North Dakota has outscored opponents 42-11 in the first period this year. In the last six meetings between the two teams, UND has killed 27 of 29 Denver power play opportunities (93.1%).

The Prediction
Both schools bring a great deal of talent to the ice. UND has an edge on the power play and between the pipes, and brings more experience to the Final Five. Lamoureux will hear his name called as a Hobey finalist on Thursday night and back it up with a strong performance on Friday afternoon. UND 3-1.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back all weekend long for reaction, analysis, and commentary from St. Paul.