Sioux Sports Talk

The last time these teams met, even the post-game handshake was heated. There’s plenty more on the line this time around, and Wisconsin, whose unexpected tournament berth may have had them scrambling to cancel tee times, will be ready. The Badgers used a fair bit of puck luck and a partisan crowd to down Denver 6-2, while North Dakota withstood a furious Princeton forecheck and survived 5-1. Yes, I said survived 5-1. The UND/Princeton tilt should have been a 3-2 contest either way, but Hobey Baker finalist Jean-Philippe Lamoureux stole the show, turning aside 38 Tiger shots before his shutout bid was spoiled with 33 seconds remaining.

Of the six Western Collegiate Hockey Association teams invited to the NCAA tournament, only these two remain, and one of them will represent the WCHA in the Frozen Four (Denver, CO). The other four league representatives (Colorado College, Denver, St. Cloud State, and Minnesota) failed to win a game in the tournament.

The winner of this Midwest Region final will face the Boston College/Miami winner in one national semifinal, while Michigan will battle CCHA rival Notre Dame in the other semifinal.

Wisconsin Team Profile
National Rankings: #17/-
PairWise Ranking: #12
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 4th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Mike Eaves (6th season at UW, 123-94-30 .559)
This Season: 16-16-7 Overall, 11-12-5 WCHA (6th)
Team Offense: 2.87 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.54 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.1% (31 of 181)
Penalty Kill: 81.3% (152 of 187)
Last Season: 19-18-4 Overall, 12-13-3 WCHA (6th)
Key Players: Freshman F Kyle Turris (11-23-34), Junior F Ben Street (13-17-30), Sophomore D Jamie McBain (4-19-23), Senior D Kyle Klubertanz (4-15-19), Junior G Shane Connelly (15-15-5, 2.43 GAA, .913 SV, 1 SO)
NCAA Championships: 6 (most recent, 2006)
NCAA Appearance: 22nd (most recent, 2006)

North Dakota Team Profile
National Rankings: #3/#3
PairWise Ranking: #3
KRACH Strength of Schedule:2nd of 59 teams
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (4th season at UND, 105-55-15, .643)
This Season: 27-10-4 Overall, 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Team Offense: 3.05 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.76 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.5% (36 of 185)
Penalty Kill: 87.6% (156 of 178)
Last Season: 24-14-5 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 13-10-5 WCHA (3rd)
Key Players: Junior F T.J. Oshie (18-25-43, Hobey Baker finalist), Junior F Ryan Duncan (17-22-39), Sophomore F Chris VandeVelde (15-17-32), Sophomore D Chay Genoway (8-21-29), Senior D Taylor Chorney (3-21-24), Senior G Jean-Philippe Lamoureux (26-10-4, 1.63 GAA, .935 SV, 6 SO, Hobey Baker finalist)
NCAA Championships: 7 (most recent, 2000)
NCAA Appearance: 23rd (most recent, 2007)

By The Numbers
Last Meeting: November 10, 2007 (Madison, WI). North Dakota defeats Wisconsin 3-1 to salvage a split of the weekend series at the Kohl Center. The Badgers won Friday night, 4-0. Saturday’s finale was marred by 172 penalty minutes, most of which came during a line brawl late in the third period.
Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1982. A 2-2 tie after two periods turns into a 5-2 Sioux victory, as Phil Sykes nets a hat trick and leads UND to its fourth National Championship.
All-time Series: Wisconsin leads the all-time series, 80-57-10 (.578), including a 43-22-3 mark (.654) in Madison and an 11-5 record (.688) at the Kohl Center.

Game News and Notes
UND senior goaltender Jean-Philippe Lamoure (Grand Forks, ND) enters Sunday’s game leading the nation in goals-against average (1.6346) and save percentage (.935). The Hobey Baker finalist is tied for first with six shutouts and has given up exactly one goal 17 times this season. Only two of the other top-ten net minders (Michigan’s Billy Sauer and Miami’s Jeff Zatkoff) are still active in postseason play. Saturday’s win against Denver was Wisconsin’s first action since a March 15th overtime loss to St. Cloud eliminated them from the WCHA playoffs. North Dakota is outscoring opponents 44-12 in the first period this season; Wisconsin is 2-12-6 when trailing after twenty minutes. The Badgers finish strong, however, outscoring opponents 49-23 in the third period. Freshman phenom Kyle Turris (11-23-34) is expected to turn pro at the conclusion of Wisconsin’s season. The six goals Wisconsin tallied against Denver were the most the Badgers had scored in a game since a 7-2 victory over Denver on January 12th. North Dakota’s four juniors who turned down pro contracts (Oshie, Duncan, Chorney, Finley) have combined to score 42 goals and 79 assists, more than a third of UND’s goal scoring for the season.

Prediction
The Badger faithful will be out in full force, and the first ten minutes will tell the tale. If North Dakota can demonstrate puck control and poise early on, it could be a long night for Bucky. If Wisconsin keeps the crowd involved, this one might go to overtime. The Sioux rebound from a shaky first-round game and head to Denver on a high note. UND 3-1.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back after the game for reaction, commentary, and analysis.

Let’s take these games in order of start time today:

Midwest Regional semifinal: (1) UND 5, (4) Princeton 1
The WCHA finally picked up a victory in the 2008 NCAA tournament, but it wasn’t pretty and it wasn’t easy for North Dakota. Sioux goaltender (and Hobey Baker finalist) Jean-Philippe Lamoureux made 38 saves and reigning Hobey Baker winner Ryan Duncan netted a natural hat trick in the victory. Cam MacIntyre scored the lone goal for the Tigers with 33 seconds remaining to spoil the shutout bid, but Princeton outplayed the Fighting Sioux for much of the game, outshooting North Dakota 39-18. Chay Genoway notched an empty net goal and added two assists, while Hobey Baker finalist T.J. Oshie collected two assists. North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol is 8-3 in the NCAA tournament, and his team has a chance to make it a perfect four Frozen Fours in his four seasons behind the bench. UND moves on to face Wisconsin in the Midwest Regional final Sunday at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Northeast Regional semifinal: (1) Miami 3, (4) Air Force 2 (OT)
Miami scored a power play goal with 6:16 remaining to tie the game at two and Justin Mercier scored the game winner 15:21 into overtime as the Redhawks avoided the upset and move on to face Boston College in a rematch of last season’s Northeast Regional championship game. The power play with 7:50 remaining in the hockey game came on a questionable too-many-men penalty. 2007 Hobey Baker finalist Eric Ehn returned to the ice for the first time in two months (broken fibula) and was a factor for the Falcons. Miami opened the scoring just 19 seconds into the hockey game. Air Force nearly knocked off top seed Minnesota last season, leading 3-1 with ten minutes to play in the third period before falling, 4-3. Falcons goaltender Andrew Volkening was spectacular, making 30 of 33 saves for the game. Miami junior forward Nathan Davis left the game with a shoulder injury and is questionable for the championship game on Sunday.

Midwest Regional semifinal: (3) Wisconsin 6, (2) Denver 2
Wisconsin blew this game open with four goals on nine shots in the third period after leading just 2-1 after two periods. Cody Goloubef and John Mitchell scored one minute apart midway through the final frame and the Badgers got great goaltending from Shane Connelly (30 saves on 32 shots). Five different Badgers scored goals in this statement game (the statement being: yes, we belong in this tournament). The Pioneers became the third Colorado school to fall short of the Frozen Four, held at Pepsi Center (Denver, CO), as Colorado College and Air Force also lost in regional action.

East Regional final: (1) Michigan 2, (3) Clarkson 0
Hobey Baker finalist Kevin Porter figured in the scoring on both Wolverine goals, assisting on Aaron Palushaj’s game-winner with 5:37 to play in the first period and adding an insurance goal 26 seconds into the third period. Porter collected 5 goals and 1 assist in two East Regional games. Michigan goaltender Billy Sauer stopped all 27 shots he faced for his fourth shutout of the season. Clarkson finished 0 for 9 on the power play (and 0 for 13 for the weekend), and that was ultimately their undoing. The Wolverines became the first team to punch their ticket to the Frozen Four, and will face a familiar opponent in the national semifinals, as fellow CCHA members Michigan State and Notre Dame face off for the West Regional championship and a date with the Wolverines.

Northeast Regional semifinal: (2) Boston College 5, (3) Minnesota 2
Early on, this game looked like a mismatch. The Eagles played a nearly flawless first period, but led only 1-0. Minnesota elevated their play in the second, but traded goals with Boston College and went into the third period trailing 2-1. Defensive breakdowns led to two quick BC goals, but the Gophers went on the power play with four minutes remaining and pulled Kangas for a 6 on 4 advantage. Ben Gordon appeared to score, although play went on for more than two minutes before the Eagles scored an apparent empty-net goal to make the score 5-1. After a lengthy review, the Gordon goal stood (making the score 4-2) and the clock was reset to 3:27. Minnesota applied furious pressure for the remainder of the hockey game but would come no closer. Gerbe added an empty net goal for the final margin. The Eagles face the Miami Redhawks in Sunday’s Northeast Regional championship, and hope to replicate last season’s result, when they blanked Miami 4-0.

The West Regional final between (3) Michigan State and (4) Notre Dame was still in progress at the time this article was published.

Here’s a closer look at the four teams in the NCAA Northeast Regional (Worcester, Massachusetts):

Game 1: (1) Miami (OH) vs. (4) Air Force (Saturday, March 29, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Miami Team Profile
National Rankings: #2/#2
PairWise Ranking: #2
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 25th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Enrico Blasi (9th season at Miami, 186-137-28, .570)
This Season: 32-7-1 Overall, 21-6-1 CCHA (2nd)
Team Offense: 4.08 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.80 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.1% (50 of 249)
Penalty Kill: 89.6% (198 of 221)
Last Season: 24-14-4 Overall (NCAA Northeast Regional Finalist), 16-8-4 CCHA
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Jones (30-17-47, Hobey Baker Finalist), Senior F Nathan Davis (8-9-17), Junior D Alec Martinez (9-21-30), Junior G Jeff Zatkoff (26-7-1, 1.67 GAA, .934 SV, 3 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 6th (most recent, 2007)

Air Force Team Profile
National Rankings: #20/-
PairWise Ranking: –
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 52nd of 59 teams
Head Coach: Frank Serratore (11th season at Air Force, 170-200-30, .463)
This Season: 21-11-6 Overall, 14-9-5 Atlantic Hockey (3rd)
Team Offense: 3.37 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.32 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.1% (39 of 216)
Penalty Kill: 84.2% (154 of 183)
Last Season: 19-16-5 (NCAA West Regional Semifinalist), 13-10-3 AHA (5th)
Key Players: Junior F Brent Olson (18-20-38), Sophomore F Jeff Hajner (15-22-37), Junior D Greg Flynn (8-23-31), Junior G Andrew Volkening (21-10-6, 2.08 GAA, .912 SV, 4 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 2nd (most recent, 2007)

What to watch for: Will 2007 Hobey Baker finalist Eric Ehn (6-19-25 in 24 games) return to the lineup for the Falcons after missing two months with a broken fibula? Air Force brings the nation’s longest unbeaten streak (8-0-1) to the NCAAs, and still remember last year’s collapse against Minnesota (the Falcons led 3-1 midway through the third period before losing 4-3). Can Miami score early and often against Volkening, who has four shutouts in the past five weeks?

Who will win: On paper, it’s Miami. They’re the only team in the country scoring more than four goals per game, and have the ability to shut the game down defensively as well. Air Force will need to keep the game close through two and hope for things to go their way in the third, but I think the Redhawks have too much for the Falcons to handle. Miami 4-1.

Game 2: (2) Boston College vs. (3) Minnesota (Saturday, March 29, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Boston College Team Profile
National Rankings: #7/#7
PairWise Ranking: #6 (tied)
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 16th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Jerry York (14th season at BC, 332-180-50, .635)
This Season: 21-11-8 Overall, 11-9-7-Hockey East (4th)
Team Offense: 3.52 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.35 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.1% (45 of 204)
Penalty Kill: 83.7% (169 of 202)
Last Season: 29-12-1 Overall (NCAA Runner-up), 18-8-1 Hockey East (2nd)
Key Players: Junior F Nathan Gerbe (28-29-57, Hobey Baker Finalist), Sophomore F Ben Smith (21-22-43), Junior F Benn Ferriero (16-22-38), Freshman G Jon Muse (21-11-8, 2.26 GAA, .919 SV, 3 SO)
NCAA Championships: 2 (most recent, 2001)
NCAA Appearance: 28th (most recent, 2005)

Minnesota Team Profile
National Rankings: #10/#11
PairWise Ranking: #11
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 8th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Don Lucia (9th season at Minnesota, 239-112-38, .663)
This Season: 19-16-9 Overall, 9-12-7 WCHA (7th)
Team Offense: 2.43 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.36 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 12.7% (24 of 189)
Penalty Kill: 87.3% (165 of 189)
Last Season: 31-10-3 Overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (1st)
Key Players: Junior F Blake Wheeler (15-19-34), Senior F Ben Gordon (14-14-28), Senior D Derek Peltier (4-16-20), Freshman G Alex Kangas (12-9-9, 1.92 GAA, .932 SV)
NCAA Championships: 5 (most recent, 2003)
NCAA Appearance: 32nd (most recent, 2007)

What to watch for: If Gerbe is involved, the Eagles win. In 11 BC losses this season, the junior forward scored a total of one goal and two assists. Minnesota enters the tournament on a 7-3-2 run, and will be playing for Tom Pohl, who suffered a severe head injury in the WCHA playoffs. How will freshmen goaltenders John Muse and Alex Kangas handle the pressure of the big stage?

Who will win: Minnesota comes into this game with momentum, inspiration, and the goaltending necessary to make this a tight contest. The Gophers will need to stay out of the penalty box and avoid the potent Eagle power play. In front of the home crowd, BC takes this one, but it’ll go down to the wire. BC 3-2.

Northeast Regional Final: Boston College vs. Miami (OH). These two teams met last season in the Northeast Regional championship, and BC blanked Miami 4-0. It’ll be closer this time around, but Jerry York will find a way to contain the Redhawks offense, and Gerbe will score enough to land in the Hobey Hat Trick and send his team to the Frozen Four. BC 4-2.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back throughout the weekend for more previews, predictions, analysis, and reaction from the NCAA tournament.

Here’s a closer look at the four teams in the NCAA Midwest Regional (Madison, Wisconsin):

Game 1: (1) North Dakota vs. (4) Princeton (Saturday, March 29, 3:00 p.m. ET)

North Dakota Team Profile
National Rankings: #3/#3
PairWise Ranking: #3
KRACH Strength of Schedule:1st of 59 teams
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (4th season at UND, 104-55-15, .641)
This Season: 26-10-4 Overall, 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Team Offense: 3.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.77 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.8% (34 of 181)
Penalty Kill: 87.5% (154 of 176)
Last Season: 24-14-5 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 13-10-5 WCHA (3rd)
Key Players: Junior F T.J. Oshie (18-23-41, Hobey Baker finalist), Junior F Ryan Duncan (14-22-36), Sophomore F Chris VandeVelde (15-17-32), Sophomore D Chay Genoway (7-19-26), Senior D Taylor Chorney (3-21-24), Senior G Jean-Philippe Lamoureux (25-10-4, 1.65 GAA, .934 SV, 6 SO, Hobey Baker finalist)
NCAA Championships: 7 (most recent, 2000)
NCAA Appearance: 23rd (most recent, 2007)

Princeton Team Profile
National Rankings: #13/#13
PairWise Ranking: #16
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 34th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Guy Gadowsky (4th season at Princeton, 54-67-9, .488)
This Season: 21-13-0 Overall, 14-8-0 ECAC (2nd)
Team Offense: 3.26 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.65 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.2% (29 of 169)
Penalty Kill: 85.3% (122 of 143)
Last Season: 15-16-3, 10-10-2 ECAC (6th)
Key Players: Junior F Lee Jubinville (12-26-38, Hobey Baker finalist), Junior F Brett Wilson (15-20-35), Sophomore F Cam MacIntyre (12-18-30), Senior D Mike Moore (7-17-24), Sophomore G Zane Kalemba (19-10-0, 2.36 GAA, .918 SV, 5 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 2nd (most recent, 1998)

What to watch for: Does the WCHA rebound after a poor showing in the East and West regionals? Can the Tigers match up with UND’s mobile defenseman? Which goaltender makes more of the key saves?

Who will win: Both the Sioux and Tigers play their home games on NHL-sized rinks (85×200), and will require some adjustment to play on the larger surface (97×200) in Madison. Princeton will have a fair number of Denver and Wisconsin fans in its corner, but it won’t much matter. North Dakota has an advantage in all areas and the veteran leadership to advance to the Midwest Regional Final. UND 4-2.

For a complete preview of the UND/Princeton matchup, click here.

Game 2: (2) Denver vs. (3) Wisconsin (Saturday, March 29, 6:30 p.m. ET)

Denver Team Profile
National Rankings: #4/#5
PairWise Ranking: #6 (tied)
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 5th of 59 teams
Head Coach: George Gwozdecky (14th season at Denver, 323-204-41, .605)
This Season: 26-13-1 Overall, 16-11-1 WCHA (3rd)
Team Offense: 2.85 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.20 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 14.1% (28 of 199)
Penalty Kill: 89.1% (163 of 183)
Last Season: 21-15-4 Overall, 13-11-4 WCHA (4th)
Key Players: Freshman F Tyler Bozak (18-16-34), Sophomore F Rhett Rakhshani (14-14-28), Freshman F Kyle Ostrow (10-13-23), Junior D Patrick Mullen (4-18-22), Senior G Peter Mannino (25-13-1, 2.19 GAA, .920 SV, 6 SO)
NCAA Championships: 7 (most recent, 2005)
NCAA Appearance: 19th (most recent, 2005)

Wisconsin Team Profile
National Rankings: #17/-
PairWise Ranking: #12
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 4th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Mike Eaves (6th season at UW, 122-94-30 .557)
This Season: 15-16-7 Overall, 11-12-5 WCHA (6^th)
Team Offense: 2.79 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.55 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.0% (30 of 176)
Penalty Kill: 81.2% (147 of 181)
Last Season: 19-18-4 Overall, 12-13-3 WCHA (6^th)
Key Players: Freshman F Kyle Turris (11-22-33), Junior F Ben Street (13-16-29), Sophomore D Jamie McBain (3-18-21), Senior D Kyle Klubertanz (4-15-19), Junior G Shane Connelly (14-15-5, 2.44 GAA, .912 SV, 1 SO)
NCAA Championships: 6 (most recent, 2006)
NCAA Appearance: 22nd (most recent, 2006)

What to watch for: Which team will North Dakota fans rally behind? Or will the Sioux faithful simply cheer for multiple overtimes? There will be representatives in the Kohl Center this weekend ready to whisk Kyle Turris away for the pro career that awaits him.

Who will win: Denver is playing its best hockey of the season after a shaky second half. The Pioneers missed out on the NCAAs last season, and are driven to return to Denver for the Frozen Four. Wisconsin will keep it close in front of the home crowd, but not close enough. DU 3-1.

Midwest Regional Final: Denver and North Dakota will meet for the sixth time this season with everything on the line. Both goaltenders are capable of taking over the game, and whichever team dictates its style of play will advance to the Frozen Four. I have a feeling that this game goes to overtime, where UND’s scoring depth will become a factor. UND 3-2 (OT).

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back throughout the weekend for more previews, predictions, analysis, and reaction from the NCAA tournament.

Here’s a closer look at the four teams in the NCAA West Regional (Colorado Springs, Colorado):

Game 1: (1) New Hampshire vs. (4) Notre Dame (Friday, March 28, 6:30 p.m. ET)

New Hampshire Team Profile
National Rankings: #5/#4
PairWise Ranking: #4
KRACH Strength of Schedule:11th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Dick Umile (18th season at UNH, 424-206-66, .657)
This Season: 25-9-3 Overall, 19-5-3 Hockey East (1st)
Team Offense: 3.49 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.35 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.6% (33 of 177)
Penalty Kill: 85.7% (162 of 189)
Last Season: 26-11-2 Overall (NCAA Northeast Regional Semifinalist), 18-7-2 Hockey East (1st)
Key Players: Senior F Matt Fornataro (18-28-46), Senior F Mike Radja (19-24-43), Freshman F James vanRiemsdyk (11-20-31), Senior D Brad Flaishans (5-17-22), Senior G Kevin Regan (23-7-1, 2.12 GAA, .933 SV, 3 SO, Hobey Baker Finalist)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 28th (most recent, 2007)

Notre Dame Team Profile
National Rankings: #12/#12
PairWise Ranking: #13 (tied)
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 27th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Jeff Jackson (3rd season at Notre Dame, 69-41-11, .616)
This Season: 24-15-4 Overall, 15-9-4 CCHA (4th)
Team Offense: 2.79 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.05 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.3% (37 of 242)
Penalty Kill: 89.2% (174 of 195)
Last Season: 32-7-3 Overall (NCAA Midwest Regional Finalist), 24-4-3 CCHA
Key Players: Sophomore F Ryan Thang (16-11-27), Senior F Mark Van Guilder (11-14-25), Sophomore D Kyle Lawson (4-20-24), Junior G Jordan Pearce (20-14-4, 1.94 GAA, .917 SV, 2 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 3rd (most recent, 2007)

What to watch for: How does New Hampshire respond to last weekend’s heartbreaking loss to Boston College in the Hockey East semifinals? (The Wildcats led 2-0 after one period before the Eagles stormed back, winning 5-4 in triple overtime.) How does Notre Dame move on after losing its leading scorer, Erik Condra (15-23-38), in the first round of the CCHA playoffs? And how does Notre Dame play its defensive style on the wide sheet in Colorado Springs?

Who will win: With Condra in the lineup, this would have been my upset special. I still think the Irish have a chance in this game, but they need to score early. I have the Wildcats in a close contest. UNH 2-1.

Game 2: (2) Colorado College vs. (3) Michigan State (Friday, March 28, 10:00 p.m. ET)

Colorado College Team Profile
National Rankings: #6/#6
PairWise Ranking: #5
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 7th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Scott Owens (9th season at Colorado College, 223-120-25, .640)
This Season: 28-11-1 Overall, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.12 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.8% (35 of 177)
Penalty Kill: 89.4% (143 of 160)
Last Season: 18-17-4 Overall, 13-12-3 WCHA (5th)
Key Players: Junior F Chad Rau (28-14-42), Senior F Jimmy Kilpatrick (15-16-31), Sophomore F Andreas Vlassopolous (8-22-30), Senior D Jack Hillen (6-31-37), Freshman G Richard Bachmann (25-8-1, 1.82 GAA, .933 SV, 4 SO)
NCAA Championships: 2 (most recent, 1957)
NCAA Appearance: 19th (most recent, 2006)

Michigan State Team Profile
National Rankings: #9/#9
PairWise Ranking: #9 (tied)
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 20th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Rick Comley (6th season at MSU, 141-84-24, .614)
This Season: 24-11-5 Overall, 19-6-3 CCHA (3rd)
Team Offense: 3.27 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.35 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.8% (46 of 221)
Penalty Kill: 86.7% (156 of 180)
Last Season: 26-13-3 Overall (National Champions), 15-10-3 CCHA
Key Players: Junior F Tim Kennedy (19-21-40), Senior Bryan Lerg (20-18-38), Junior F Justin Abdelkader (18-19-37), Sophomore D Mike Ratchuk (6-19-25), Junior G Jeff Lerg (23-11-5, 2.23 GAA, .925 SV, 4 SO, Hobey Baker finalist)
NCAA Championships: 3 (most recent, 2007)
NCAA Appearance: 26th (most recent, 2004)

What to watch for: This matchup features a goaltending duel between the WCHA Player of the Year (Bachman) and Hobey Baker finalist Jeff Lerg. As I wrote here, Bachman should have been a finalist over Lerg, and we’ll find out on the ice. Michigan State will have trouble adjusting to the big sheet, where Colorado College has lost just twice this season. How do the Tigers respond to two losses last weekend at the WCHA Final Five?

Who will win: The Tigers have both the speedy forwards and mobile defenseman to cause the Spartans fits. Colorado College wins in front of the home crowd. CC 3-2.

West Regional Final: I still feel like CC is a Frozen Four team, but they’ll have to play their best game to get there. New Hampshire plays on Olympic ice (100×200) at Whittmore Center, and will give the Tigers all they can handle. This one may very well go to overtime. CC 3-2.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back throughout the weekend for more previews, predictions, analysis, and reaction from the NCAA tournament.

Here’s a closer look at the four teams in the NCAA East Regional (Albany, New York):

Game 1: (2) St. Cloud State vs. (3) Clarkson (Friday, March 28, 4:00 p.m. ET)

St. Cloud Team Profile
National Rankings: #8/#8
PairWise Ranking: #8
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 9th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Bob Motzko (3rd season at SCSU, 63-42-16, .587)
This Season: 19-15-5 Overall, 12-12-4 WCHA (4th)
Team Offense: 3.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.36 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.2% (46 of 198)
Penalty Kill: 87.1% (121 of 139)
Last Season: 22-11-7 Overall (NCAA East Regional Semifinalist), 14-7-7 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Sophomore F Ryan Lasch (25-28-53, Hobey Baker Finalist), Freshman F Garrett Roe (18-26-44), Sophomore F Andreas Nodl (18-26-44), Senior D Aaron Brocklehurst (4-18-22), Sophomore G Jase Weslosky (16-12-2, 2.12 GAA, .931 SV, 3 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 7th (Most recent, 2007)

Clarkson Team Profile
National Rankings: #11/#10
PairWise Ranking: #9 (tied)
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 31st of 59 teams
Head Coach: George Roll (5th season at Clarkson, 95-79-20, .541)
This Season: 25-8-5 Overall, 13-5-4 ECAC (1st)
Team Offense: 2.86 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.43 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 14.0% (24 of 171)
Penalty Kill: 83.8% (155 of 185)
Last Season: 25-9-5 Overall (NCAA East Regional Semifinalist), 13-5-4 ECAC (2nd)
Key Players: Sophomore F Matt Beca (10-24-34), Junior F Steve Zalewski (21-12-33), Senior D Grant Clitsome (5-16-21), Senior G David Leggio (21-11-4, 2.24 GAA, .918 SV, 5 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 20th (Most recent, 2007)

What to watch for: These two teams appeared at the same regional last season (in Rochester, NY) but did not meet. St. Cloud State lost to Maine 4-1, while Clarkson fell to Massachusetts, 1-0 in overtime. If the Huskies win this game, it will be their first NCAA tournament victory in school history, and with a loss, the Clarkson Golden Knights would finish with an identical record as last season.

Who will win: It’s time for St. Cloud to put one in the win column. The Huskies have skill up front and a devastating power play, and that translates to victory. SCSU 4-2.

Game 2: (1) Michigan vs. (4) Niagara (Friday, March 28, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Michigan Team Profile
National Rankings: #1/#1
PairWise Ranking: #1
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 12th of 59 teams
Head Coach: “Red“ Berenson (24th season at Michigan, 642-297-68, .671)
This Season: 31-5-4 Overall, 20-4-4 CCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.98 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.08 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.4% (43 of 211)
Penalty Kill: 86.2% (187 of 217)
Last Season: 26-14-1 Overall (NCAA West Regional Semifinalist), 18-9-1 CCHA
Key Players: Senior F Kevin Porter (28-28-56, Hobey Baker Finalist), Senior F Chad Kolarik (28-20-48), Freshman F Max Pacioretty (14-20-34), Junior D Mark Mitera (2-20-22), Junior G Billy Sauer (28-4-3, 1.97 GAA, .924 SV, 3 SO)
NCAA Championships: 9 (most recent, 1998)
NCAA Appearance: 30th (most recent, 2007)

Niagara Team Profile
National Rankings: #19/-
PairWise Ranking: #22 (tied)
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 49th of 59 teams
Head Coach: Dave Burkholder (7th season at Niagara, 128-106-22, .543)
This Season: 22-10-4 Overall, 12-6-2 CHA (2nd)
Team Offense: 3.53 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.58 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.3% (41 of 176)
Penalty Kill: 80.9% (127 of 157)
Last Season: 18-13-6 Overall, 9-5-6 CHA
Key Players: Junior F Vinco Rocco (14-31-45), Senior F Matt Caruana (16-22-38), Junior F Ted Cook (19-12-31), Sophomore D Tyler Gotto (2-21-23), Junior G Juliano Pagliero (17-6-4, 2.26 GAA, .929 SV, 4 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 3rd (most recent, 2004)

What to watch for: Are the Wolverines ripe for an upset after experiencing success (GLI Championship, CCHA regular season title, CCHA post-season title) all year long? Can the Purple Eagles keep this game close?

Who will win: Michigan is too deep and too talented. The Purple Eagles upset New Hampshire in its first ever NCAA appearance (2000), but ran into juggernaut North Dakota to end that Cinderella story.  Niagara will fall to another powerhouse this time around. Michigan 5-1.

East Regional Final: A Michigan/St. Cloud matchup is intriguing. The Huskies are a team that can skate with the Wolverines, and if Michigan gets in penalty trouble, look out. I see the Wolverines prevailing in a close one. Michigan 4-3.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back throughout the weekend for more previews, predictions, analysis, and reaction from the NCAA tournament.

Expectations were not high for the Princeton Tigers this season. After finishing last year at 15-16-3 (10-10-2 ECAC), Guy Gadowsky’s club lost eight seniors, including three of its top five scorers, four defensemen, and goaltender B.J. Sklapsky (7-4-1, 2.60 GAA, .911 SV, 1 SO).

There were some signs of hope: freshman goalie Zane Kalemba (8-11-1, 2.89 GAA, .891 SV) was a solid replacement, and leading scorer Lee Jubinville (11-18-29 in 32 games) was back for his junior season.

The coaches and the media tabbed Princeton to finish eighth in the ECAC this season after a sixth-place finish last year.  And when the team went into the Christmas break at 5-7-0, that prediction looked about right, but things would get worse before they got better.

In the first game after the holiday break, the MSU-Mankato Mavericks routed Princeton 6-1, outshooting the Stripes 34-19. A sign of the times: a Princeton defenseman bounced his clearing attempt off of goalie Zane Kalemba and into his own net.

At 5-8-0, Princeton wasn’t playing as poorly as the 2002-03 Tiger team that went 3-26-2, but it had to feel like it…

And then the schedule turned to 2008. Like UND, which has gone 17-3-3 this calendar year after ending 2007 at 9-7-1, the Tigers have elevated their play over the past three months. Princeton has gone 15-5-0 in ‘08, losing all five of those games by a single goal. Four of those five losses were on the road, and the fifth was a 4-3 setback in Game 2 of the ECAC quarterfinals against Yale, a game Princeton led 2-0 in the first period. Princeton won the other two games of that best-of-three series against Yale, 3-0 and 4-0.

Over this twenty-game stretch, the Tigers are scoring 3.7 goals per game and allowing only 1.9. In the year 2008, Princeton has scored two or more goals in every game.

ECAC Player of the Year Lee Jubinville (12-26-38 in 33 games) has been a key component in the Tigers’ stretch run. The 5’10”, 165 pounder from Edmonton, Alberta has scored seven goals and added 16 assists in 2008. Jubinville is one of ten finalists for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award, the first Princeton Tiger ever selected to the top ten. Hobey Baker himself represented Princeton before World War I.

“He’s a very good player,” North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol said of Jubinville. “He was one of the best players in the Alberta Junior Hockey League a few years ago, too.”

In addition to Jubinville, two other Tigers are scoring at better than a point per game. Junior forward Brett Wilson (15-20-35) has been a solid contributor for three seasons, while sophomore forward Cam Macintyre’s thirty point season (12 goals, 18 assists) was unexpected after a rookie campaign of nine goals and four assists.

Sophomore goaltender Zane Kalemba (19-10-0) has been a pleasant surprise for the Tigers. Kalmeba carries a 2.36 goals-against average and a .918 save percentage into the national tournament, and has posted five shutouts this season.

Another key for Princeton this year has been the play of its freshman class. Of the six first-year skaters, five have scored ten or more points (including two freshman defenseman), and all six have appeared in 24 or more games.

Remember that five years ago, this team won three games. TOTAL. Since then, the Tigers have seen improvement every year: five wins in 03-04, eight in 04-05, ten in 05-06, and fifteen last year. This season’s 21 victories (21-13-0) are the most in school history, a history that dates back to the year 1900.

By contrast, North Dakota has won 21 or more games 28 times in the past fifty years.

The Stripes (21-13-0, 14-8-0 ECAC) finished second to Clarkson (21-12-4, 15-4-3 ECAC) in the conference race. The Clarkson Golden Knights will face St. Cloud State in the East Regional (Albany, NY) on Friday afternoon.

Despite its second-half success, Princeton would not have made the national tournament as an at-large team. The Tigers played their way into the NCAAs by winning the ECAC Hockey Championship in Albany, New York, defeating Harvard 4-1. Zane Kalemba stopped 34 shots (and 61 of 62 for the weekend) to win the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award.

“I’ve never seen a performance like that before,” said fourth-year head coach Guy Gadowsky of his goalie’s jaw-dropping tournament acrobatics. Gadowsky was recently awarded the Tim Taylor award as ECAC coach of the year.

This is the 23rd NCAA appearance for North Dakota, and the 2nd for Princeton. The Fighting Sioux have seven national championships, while the Tigers are looking for their first NCAA tournament victory.

Princeton Team Profile
National Rankings: #13/#13
PairWise Ranking: 16th
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 34th
Head Coach: Guy Gadowsky (4th season at Princeton, 54-67-9, .488)
This Season: 21-13-0 Overall, 14-8-0 ECAC (2nd)
Special Teams: Power Play 17.2% (29 of 169), Penalty Kill 85.3% (122 of 143)
Last Season: 15-16-3, 10-10-2 ECAC (t-6th)
Key Players: Junior F Lee Jubinville (12-26-38, Hobey Baker finalist), Junior F Brett Wilson (15-20-35), Sophomore F Cam MacIntyre (12-18-30), Senior D Mike Moore (7-17-24), Sophomore G Zane Kalemba (19-10-0, 2.36 GAA, .918 SV, 5 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile
National Rankings: #3/#3
PairWise Ranking: 3rd
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 1st
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (4th season at UND, 104-55-15, .641)
This Season: 26-10-4 Overall, 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Specialty Teams: Power Play 18.8% (34 of 181), Penalty Kill 87.5% (154 of 176)
Last Season: 24-14-5 (Frozen Four semifinalist), 13-10-5 WCHA (3rd)
Key Players: Junior F T.J. Oshie (18-23-41, Hobey Baker finalist), Junior F Ryan Duncan (14-22-36), Sophomore F Chris VandeVelde (15-17-32), Sophomore D Chay Genoway (7-19-26), Senior D Taylor Chorney (3-21-24), Senior G Jean-Philippe Lamoureux (25-10-4, 1.65 GAA, .934 SV, 6 SO, Hobey Baker finalist)

By The Numbers
Last Meeting: November 1, 2002 (Princeton, NJ). Sophomore forward Brandon Bochenski netted four goals (his second hat trick of the season) and freshman phenom Zach Parise had five assists as UND spoiled Princeton’s home opener, downing the Tigers 5-2 in front of 1,715 at Hobey Baker Rink. The teams were tied 2-2 late in the second period before Bochenski broke the game open with goals at 18:04 and 19:58. Bochenski added a rare three-on-four goal during a rash of penalties in the third period.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 2-0. The only other meeting between the two teams was in the consolation final of the Badger Showdown on December 30, 2000. North Dakota won 5-4 in a game that saw 101 shots on net (65 by the Sioux).

Game News and Notes
UND goaltender Jean-Philippe Lamoureux enters the weekend leading the nation in goals-against average (1.6510) and is second in save percentage (.934). Lamoureux is also tied for first with six shutouts, and has given up exactly one goal 16 times this season.  Princeton netminder Zane Kalemba has five shutouts to his credit. North Dakota boasts the nation’s best defense, giving up only 1.77 goals per game, while Princeton is allowing 2.65. The Tigers have scored 3.26 goals/game; UND, an even 3.00. North Dakota has outscored opponents 43-12 in the first period this year. Princeton is 18-3-0 this season when leading or tied after two periods, partly because the Tigers have outscored opponents 43-31 in the third period. As a testament to UND’s difficult schedule, consider this: North Dakota has played 35 of its 40 games against the top 25 teams in the country, going 21-10-4 (.657) in those games. Princeton, on the other hand, has played only 13 games against those same teams, with just five victories and eight losses. Fourth-seeded teams won two of the four #1 vs. #4 matchups in last season’s NCAA tournament, and all four games were decided by one goal. The Tigers have scored six short-handed goals this season. With Jubinville, Oshie, and Lamoureux on the ice in Madison, this is the only NCAA first-round matchup to boast more than one Hobey Baker finalist.

The Prediction
Both the Sioux and Tigers play their home games on NHL-sized rinks (85×200), and will require some adjustment to play on the larger surface (97×200) in Madison. Princeton will have a fair number of Denver and Wisconsin fans in its corner, but it won’t much matter. North Dakota has an advantage in all areas and the veteran leadership to advance to the Midwest Regional Final. UND 4-2.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. For analysis of the NCAA regional brackets, click here. For reaction to the Hobey Baker top ten, click here. Stop back later this week for previews and predictions from all four regional sites, and check back after Saturday’s game for more commentary and a complete recap of the Midwest Regional.

Well, here’s my attempt to summarize three days of hockey in one cohesive column. I’ll start with notes about each team and end with a few observations.

In order of their performance at the WCHA Final Five, here are the tournament participants from worst to first:

#5 Colorado College

The Tigers entered the weekend looking to claim their first ever Broadmoor trophy, and left with their collective tiger tails between their legs. Consecutive losses to Minnesota and North Dakota dropped CC to a #2 seed in its home regional.

Is it irony, coincidence, or bad luck that Colorado College has never hoisted the Broadmoor, named after their old building? It’s like 10,000 spoons when all you need is a knife….

Colorado College suffered from lapses in both games. The Tigers scored early in the second period against Minnesota, but gave up the tying goal less than a minute later. Against North Dakota, CC gave up three power play goals on seven UND opportunities. The Tigers came into Saturday’s semifinal with the nation’s best penalty kill (90.8%).

CC became just the second #1 seed in the 16-year history of the Final Five format to lose two tournament games. In 2006, #1 Minnesota lost 8-7 (OT) to #4 St. Cloud State and lost 4-0 to #2 Wisconsin in the third-place game.

The Tigers have the toughest of the four NCAA regional brackets, playing #3 Michigan State in the first round. #1 New Hampshire and #4 Notre Dame are also in the mix for a Frozen Four berth from the West Regional.

Head coach Scott Owens was frustrated by his team’s overall play and difficulty killing penalties, and will surely have his team’s attention this week in practice.

“I’m concerned about our inconsistent play going into next weekend,” Owens said.

#4 St. Cloud State

It’s difficult to judge SCSU, since we only saw them play in the Thursday play-in game against Minnesota, but they did not play particularly well. On a positive note, the Huskies and Gophers did play in front of a sold-out crowd of 19,232, smashing the play-in game record of 16,449.

“We’re not happy with the way we played tonight,” said St. Cloud head coach Bob Motzko. “(In the) first period we had a very poor period and it looked like we had stage-itis.”

The Huskies finished one for seven on the power play and never led in the hockey game. Next up for #2 seeded St. Cloud is a regional matchup against #3 Clarkson in Albany, NY. #1 Michigan and #4 Niagara are the other two teams in the East Regional.

#3 North Dakota

The Fighting Sioux followed up a lackluster performance against Denver with their best effort in a month, downing the Colorado College Tigers 4-2 to leapfrog CC and claim a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. For UND, it was important not only to win, but to play well and gain momentum for next weekend.

In the Friday semifinal, North Dakota was unable to score on either of two 5 on 3 situations, and that was the difference in the game. UND finished 0 for 4 on the power play, and T.J. Oshie and Ryan Duncan were held scoreless. The only bright spot for the Sioux was that there was another game to play on Saturday, a game with playoff implications (as Jim Dahl correctly pointed out here, it was important for North Dakota to play Colorado College head-to-head).

“Today was more about our performance than anything else,” said UND head coach Dave Hakstol about Saturday’s semifinal victory. “We didn’t feel very good last night about our performance. I thought we got back to the way we need to play.”

“Getting a win under us is going to build some confidence, and hopefully lead to a good week of practice,” agreed T.J. Oshie, who notched a goal and an assist.

North Dakota heads to Madison, Wisconsin as the #1 seed in a regional that includes two other WCHA teams. #2 Denver will play #3 Wisconsin, while UND entertains #4 Princeton in the Tiger’s second-ever NCAA tournament appearance.

#2 Denver

It’s hard not to put the Pioneers number one for the weekend, since they took home the Broadmoor trophy and moved their unbeaten streak in the Xcel Center to six games, but I gave the nod to Minnesota.

Denver played well in victories over North Dakota and Minnesota, allowing only a single goal to each team while scoring just enough to win. Both games went down to the wire and could have gone either way.

In Friday’s semifinal, Anthony Maiani broke a 1-1 tie with 80 seconds remaining and Matt Glasser added an empty-netter with 6 ticks left. The key for Denver was killing off all four UND power plays, including two extended 5 on 3’s.

In Saturday’s championship game, Denver responded with two second-period goals after Ryan Flynn staked Minnesota to a 1-0 lead, and held on in a furious third period. The Gophers outshot DU 14-4 in the final twenty minutes but could not solve Peter Mannino, who made 34 of 35 saves for the game.

As I mentioned above, Denver is headed to the Midwest Regional in Madison to take on the Badgers, who made the NCAA tournament despite a losing record (15-16-7).

#1 Minnesota

Yes, I know the Gophers lost in the championship game. But what this team accomplished after a marathon first-round series against MSU-Mankato was remarkable. Minnesota outplayed its opponents (St. Cloud State, Colorado College, Denver) for the better part of all three games and got great goaltending from freshman Alex Kangas (94 of 99 saves, 5 goals allowed). Kangas was named MVP of the tournament.

Minnesota played themselves up to #11 in the PairWise rankings and will travel to Worcester, Massachusetts this weekend. The #3 seeded Gophers will face #2 Boston College in the first round. If they advance, they will play the winner of #1 Miami (OH) and #4 Air Force in the Northeast Regional final.

And my final five observations of the weekend:

#5: I thought all three officials (Shepherd, Adam, and Anderson) did a good job throughout the tournament.

#4: I saw another #18 Hoogsteen jersey walking the concourses at the X. And I thought I was the only one…

#3: I didn’t think there would still be ducks at the Embassy Suites.

#2: Sioux fans, the Holy Cross references have to go. Yes, I understand that it was an upset, but get over it. Why not bring up the Sioux/Gopher regional final from last season? To celebrate another team’s victory over your rival instead of your team’s victory over your rival is weird to me.

#1: Sioux fans, celebrate this quote from Dave Hakstol: “It seemed like there were 7,000 to 8,000 UND fans (at the Xcel Center). Maybe some of that crew will make the journey (to Madison). It’d be great to have a strong contingent, and I’m sure we will.” North Dakota fans always travel well, and this weekend was no exception. It was great to see you all there.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your suggestions and comments, particularily if you attended the WCHA Final Five and have a story or observation to share.

As soon as the NCAA Men’s Hockey selection show ends, three questions inevitably come up:

Which is the toughest bracket?
Where are the likely upsets?
Which teams will make the Frozen Four?

And for most of us, we haven’t seen enough of the teams from the other conferences to make more than a guess about the game results. In that respect, it’s much like filling out a March Madness bracket for college hoops.

Fortunately, there’s a system that allows us to compare teams against each other and calculate each team’s expected winning percentage against any other.

The system is called KRACH, short for “Ken’s Ratings for American College Hockey”. KRACH rates teams based on their won-loss records against each other, and a key component is that a team’s strength of schedule is based on the ratings themselves, and as such cannot easily be distorted by teams with strong records against weak opposition.

The ratings are on an odds scale, so if Team A’s KRACH rating is three times as large as Team B’s, Team A would be expected to amass a winning percentage of .750 and Team B a winning percentage of .250 if the two teams played each other enough times. The correct ratings are defined such that the “expected” winning percentage for a team in the games it’s already played is equal to its “actual” winning percentage.

A more complete explanation can be found here. The KRACH ratings for each team can be found here. Note that all 59 Division I tournament-eligible teams are included in the ratings, so all tournament teams can easily be compared.

Using these ratings, let’s revisit the questions we posed above.

Which is the toughest bracket?

By every measure, the West Regional in Colorado Springs, Colorado is the toughest bracket. New Hampshire (427.7 KRACH) has the most difficult road of any #1 seed, with #4 Notre Dame (192.5) in the first round and, should they advance, the winner of #2 Colorado College (585.3) and #3 Michigan State (294.5) in the regional final. So looking at these four teams, here are each team’s chances of advancing to the Frozen Four:

#1 New Hampshire: 33.04%
#2 Colorado College: 42.05%
#3 Michigan State: 15.70%
#4 Notre Dame: 9.22%

Note that #2 seed Colorado College is the favorite to come out of the West Regional, despite being a lower seed than New Hampshire. This has nothing to do with home-ice advantage, as that factor is not included in the ratings.

Remember, the KRACH ratings are on an odds scale, and comparing each team’s rating gives us an expected winning percentage. Anything can happen in a one game format, but these percentages give us an idea of what would happen if the games were played enough times.

The next toughest bracket is found in the Midwest Regional (Madison, WI), where #1 North Dakota (613.7) will face #4 Princeton (157.1) in the opener. Should they advance to the regional final, they would meet either #2 Denver University (471.9) or #3 Wisconsin (230.4). Each team’s chance of advancing to the Frozen Four is listed below:

#1 North Dakota: 49.23%
#2 Denver: 33.53%
#3 Wisconsin: 11.11%
#4 Princeton: 6.13%

We move next to the East Regional (Albany, NY), where #1 Michigan (769.5) takes on #4 Niagara (97.14) while #2 St. Cloud State (285.5) battles #3 Clarkson (180.7). This bracket is slightly stronger than the Northeast Regional (found below) because Niagara is a tougher first round opponent than Air Force would have been. Here are the percentages:

#1 Michigan: 67.53%
#2 St. Cloud State: 19.84%
#3 Clarkson: 9.37%
#4 Niagara: 3.26%

And finally, the Northeast Regional (Worcester, MA): #1 Miami (558.7) draws #4 Air Force (55.05) in round one, while #2 Boston College (265.7) takes on #3 Minnesota (268.4). Minnesota has a slightly better chance of coming out of this bracket than Boston College, as you’ll see below:

#1 Miami: 61.59%
#2 Boston College: 18.29%
#3 Minnesota: 18.58%
#4 Air Force: 1.53%

So from the percentages above, we can see that the likely “upsets” are #3 Minnesota over #2 Boston College in the Northeast Regional semifinal and #2 Colorado College over #1 New Hampshire in the West Regional final. The #4 with the best shot of knocking off a #1 seed? Notre Dame.

And now to question 3:

Which teams will make the Frozen Four?

Here are each team’s chances to win a regional and advance to the Frozen Four, listed in the PairWise seed order that the committee used to fill in the bracket:

#1 Michigan: 67.53%
#2 Miami: 61.59%
#3 North Dakota: 49.23%
#4 New Hampshire: 33.04%
#5 Colorado College: 42.05%
#6 Boston College: 18.29%
#7 Denver: 33.53%
#8 St. Cloud State: 19.84%
#9 Michigan State: 15.70%
#10 Clarkson: 9.37%
#11 Minnesota: 18.58%
#12 Wisconsin: 11.11%
#13 Notre Dame: 9.22%
#14 Princeton: 6.13%
#15 Niagara: 3.26%
#16 Air Force: 1.53%

So by the numbers, look for Michigan, Miami, North Dakota, and Colorado College in the Frozen Four, but don’t be surprised to see Denver, New Hampshire, St. Cloud, or Minnesota in the mix as well. As they say: anything can happen, and probably will.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back later this week for regional tournament previews and predictions.

The question came up in the Denver game thread whether UND could still get a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament if Minnesota won tonight, giving UND a shot at CC.

Since the question is probably of general interest, I’ll repeat my answer here:

Looking at the CC vs. UND comparison only, 2 CC losses + 1 UND win (including 1 over CC) should flip TUC to UND and possibly RPI, plus give UND one more H2H point. If UND doesn’t take RPI, that would leave the comparison at 3-3 with CC owning RPI and UND H2H (I’m not sure which the committee would use as a tie-breaker); if UND takes RPI, UND wins the comparison 4-2 and stands a really good shot at a #1 seed.

RPI should be within .001 or so in that situation, so some of the other games could nudge it around enough to matter.

Of course, other things could move a little, with the comparison so tight, but a Minnesota win over CC and subsequent UND win over CC seems to be UND’s best chance to maximize its PWR now.