Predicting the PWR… The impact of the Denver series

Last week’s A look into the future… UND’s PWR after the Michigan Tech series went pretty well.  If you look back at the chart, UND was most likely to fall between 15 and 17 with a sweep and 20 to 21 with a split.  Here we are, a 3-point series later, and UND’s PWR is currently 16 (it fluctuated from 14 to 16 after UND’s game were finished, based on other teams’ results).

A look at how the Denver games will affect PWR

And you thought the PWR was volatile the last couple weekends.  Get a load of this…

UND's likely PWR based on this weekend's outcomes

For a quick lesson or reminder how to read the chart:

The three lines represent the potential PWR rankings as of next Monday (Jan. 26) dependent on UND’s performance this weekend.  The far left purple line is UND sweeping, the middle orange line a split, and the right blue line DU sweeping.  The numbers on the bottom are the possible PWR ratings and the numbers on the left axis the likelihood of that ranking.

For example, looking at the high point of the purple line, it’s at about 30% for both 12 and 13.  That means that if UND sweeps Denver, there’s over a 30% chance its PWR will be 12 and over a 30% chance its PWR will be 13 (or over a 60% chance its PWR will be either 12 or 13).

Average increase in UND’s PWR from 1 win this weekend: 5.76 spots
Average increase in UND’s PWR from 2 wins this weekend: 8.50 spots

Other games of interest

One of the reasons predicting PWR is so tricky is that UND’s PWR is influenced by other games as its former and future opponents rise and fall. This week I also recorded which non-UND games have the biggest impact on UND’s PWR as of next Monday.

Team Average UND PWR
if team wins 0
Average UND PWR
if team wins 2
Average Gain
from team sweep
Northern Michigan
over Alaska
16.53 15.16 1.37
Bemidji State
over Niagara
16.56 15.30 1.26
over CC
16.84 15.64 1.20

So, Northern Michigan is the non-UND game that has the biggest impact on UND’s PWR (as of next Monday). If Northern Michigan sweeps Alaska, UND’s PWR will be an average of 1.37 spots higher. To help rationalize why, lets take a look at UND’s current PWR comparisons. The Sioux lose to Alaska 1-2 based on an RPI difference of just .0001; a Northern Michigan sweep almost certainly flips that comparison, explaining most of the jump. You can dig into the others yourself, or trust the computer and cheer for the Beavers and Huskies 😉

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