Sioux Sports Talk

This is my yearly attempt to predict the ten finalists for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award. In the past, my results have been mixed, from a high of seven to a low of four.

As you may remember, my top ten is weighted toward players on teams still alive for the national tournament, although there are a couple of picks outside of the NCAA field (from Niagara and Wisconsin).

Skaters (in alphabetical order):

Cam Atkinson, junior forward, Boston College: 28 goals, 20 assists, 48 points

Carter Camper, senior forward, Miami (OH): 17 goals, 35 assists, 52 points

Jack Connolly, junior forward, Minnesota-Duluth: 15 goals, 39 assists, 54 points

Stephane Da Costa, sophomore forward, Merrimack: 14 goals, 27 assists, 41 points

Matt Frattin, senior forward, North Dakota: 33 goals, 21 assists, 54 points

Andy Miele, senior forward, Miami (OH): 21 goals, 44 assists, 65 points

Justin Schultz, sophomore defenseman, Wisconsin: 18 goals, 29 assists, 47 points

Paul Thompson, senior forward, New Hampshire: 28 goals, 24 assists, 52 points

Paul Zanette, senior forward, Niagara: 29 goals, 26 assists, 55 points

Goaltender:

Keith Kinkaid, sophomore, Union: 25-9-3, 1.98 goals-against average, .920 save percentage, 3 shutouts

A couple of these were very tough calls. I could have gone with North Dakota’s Chay Genoway and Aaron Dell over Justin Schultz and Keith Kinkaid, but I have a feeling that UND will have one Hobey hopeful this year.

Feel free to argue, debate, and add your own opinions. Check back after the announcement on Thursday evening to see how I did.

I did some number-crunching on the remaining games and came up with the following possible PairWise Ranking (PWR) finishes after next weekend’s conference tournaments. The PWR mimics the NCAA tournament selection process, so teams above 13-14 are quite likely to make the NCAA tournament (depending on how many autobids go to teams that otherwise would not have received a bid). More information on the tournament selection process is available in CHN’s tournament primer.

UND PWR Possibilities

The Sioux, currently #2 in the PairWise Rankings, have limited potential to move. It appears that UND will finish with either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd overall PWR. Those results are heavily dependent on Yale, UND’s own performance, Boston College, and Merrimack. In a couple low probability situations other factors come into play, but for the most part those are the teams to watch.

• If Yale defeats Colgate, UND can only finish from #2 to #3…
  • …and if UND wins the Final Five, the Sioux will be #2 overall.
  • …and if BC loses to Northeastern, the Sioux will be #2 overall.
  • …and if BC defeats Northeastern and UND loses a Final Five game, about 1/2 the scenarios result in UND finishing #3 overall (the outcome of BC’s remaining game is very important, but not definitive).
• If Yale loses to Colgate, UND can finish from #1 to #3…
  • …and if UND wins the Final Five, about 99% of scenarios result in UND being #1 overall.
  • …and Merrimack and BC losing become associated with high finishes for UND…
    • …and if both lose their opening game, UND finishes #1 in 95-98% of scenarios (#2 otherwise).
    • …and if both win their opening game, UND finishes #1 if they win the Final Five, finishes #3 over 99% of the time otherwise (#2 possible but pretty unlikely).

Top 20 PWR Possibilities

Who’s making the NCAA tournament?

What will the final PWR be?

Team	PWR	Overall		Lose all remaining		Win all remaining
		Possible Final PWR	Likely (>1%) Final PWR	Possible Final PWR	Likely (>1%) Final PWR	Possible Final PWR	Likely (>1%) Final PWR
Yale	1	1 to 4	1 to 3	1 to 4	1 to 3	1	1
North Dakota	2	1 to 3	1 to 3	1 to 3	1 to 3	1 to 2	1 to 2
Boston College	3	1 to 4	1 to 4	1 to 4	1 to 4	1 to 3	1 to 3
Michigan	4	2 to 11	3 to 11	6 to 11	6 to 11	2 to 5	3 to 5
Miami	5	3 to 11	3 to 11	5 to 11	6 to 11	3 to 4	3 to 4
Denver	6	4 to 11	4 to 9	5 to 11	5 to 9	4 to 6	4 to 6
Minnesota-Duluth	7	4 to 11	4 to 11	7 to 11	8 to 11	4 to 6	4 to 6
Merrimack	8	4 to 11	4 to 11	6 to 11	7 to 11	4 to 6	4 to 6
Union	9	5 to 11	6 to 10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Notre Dame	10	4 to 15	4 to 14	10 to 15	10 to 14	4 to 8	4 to 8
New Hampshire	11	4 to 15	5 to 14	10 to 15	10 to 14	4 to 11	5 to 11
Western Michigan	12	10 to 19	10 to 19	13 to 19	14 to 19	10 to 13	10 to 13
Nebraska-Omaha	13	12 to 16	12 to 16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Colorado College	14	10 to 19	10 to 18	12 to 19	15 to 18	10 to 15	10 to 15
Dartmouth	15	10 to 22	11 to 21	18 to 22	18 to 21	10 to 15	11 to 14
Rensselaer	16	10 to 19	11 to 16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Boston University	17	13 to 19	14 to 18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Maine	18	13 to 21	15 to 19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Minnesota	19	17 to 21	18 to 20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Alaska Anchorage	20	12 to 23	12 to 22	19 to 23	19 to 22	12 to 16	12 to 16
St. Cloud State	21	19 to 26	20 to 24	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Alaska	22	22 to 28	22 to 26	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

PWR rankings assume RPI as a tie-breaker.

Notes

Due to the unusually massive volume of data in this post and timeliness of this information, I didn’t get to do nearly as much quality control and verification as I normally would like. If you see any obvious transcription errors, or have found scenarios that fall outside these boundaries, let me know in the comments!

Also, if there are outcomes for which you’d like to scenario, just let me know and I’ll give you the game results that you can pop into the You Are The Committee calculators.

Resources

• SiouxSports.com PWR Rankings
• CollegeHockeyNews NCAA Tournament Primer
• USCHO PairWise Predictor
• CollegeHockeyNews You Are The Committee

The future looks brighter for Michigan Tech. The freshmen and sophomore classes continue to lead the Huskies, and all seven point producers last weekend in Houghton were first- and second-year players.

Jamie Russell will graduate only three players after this season, and there’s reason to believe that MTU will avoid the WCHA basement in 2011-2012.

For North Dakota, the time is now. The Fighting Sioux boast two legitimate scoring lines (Frattin-Malone-Trupp and Gregoire-Knight-Hextall) and the league’s best defense and goaltending. Dave Hakstol’s squad is unbeaten in their last nine games (8-0-1), and destroyed Michigan Tech last weekend by a combined score of 17-3.

Despite the mismatch, history tells us that at least one of these games will be closer than last weekend’s scores. In March 2009, UND defeated Michigan Tech 5-1, 4-3 in the first round, and in March 2008, the Huskies took North Dakota to a third game, with the Fighting Sioux prevailing in the series 4-0, 2-3 (OT), 2-1.

One area of concern for North Dakota is whether the games will get out of hand if and when the scoreboard gets out of hand. In Saturday’s 11-2 drubbing of the Huskies, Michigan Tech was whistled for 49 minutes in penalties, including a 5 minute major for checking from behind and three 10 minute misconducts. UND would like to get out of this series in two games and in one piece.

Michigan Tech Team Profile

Head Coach: (Jamie Russell, 8th season at MTU, 70-195-37, .293)

This Season: 4-28-4, 2-24-2 WCHA (12th)
Last Season: 5-30-1 overall, 4-24-0 WCHA (10th)
Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.06 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 4.39 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 16.0% (24 of 150)
Penalty Kill: 74.8% (107 of 143)

Key Players: Sophomore F Milos Gordic (15-6-21), Freshman F Ryan Furne (11-9-20), Freshman F Jacob Johnstone (4-14-18), Senior D Deron Cousens (2-18-20), Sophomore D Steven Seigo (4-13-17), Sophomore G Kevin Genoe (3-16-2, 3.86 GAA, .888 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 181-92-27, .648)

This Season: 26-8-3, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 3rd
National Rankings: #1/#1

Team Offense: 4.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.30 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.4% (46 of 197)
Penalty Kill: 84.9% (146 of 172)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (29-20-49), Junior F Jason Gregoire (21-16-37), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-27-40), Senior F Evan Trupp (16-18-34), Senior F/D Jake Marto (6-11-17), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-15-15), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (24-6-2, 1.95 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: March 5, 2011 (Houghton, MI). North Dakota scored early (four goals in the first five minutes) and often (11 goals total) in completing a weekend sweep of the Huskies, 11-2. Jason Gregoire netted a hat trick, and Brett Hextall and Mario Lamoureux both collected four points. Huskies starting goaltender Josh Robinson lasted only 4 minutes and 39 seconds, allowing four goals on six shots.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: March 6, 2010 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota rallied from a two goal deficit to defeat the visiting Huskies 3-2 and secure a weekend sweep. UND forward Jason Gregoire potted two goals and Mario Lamoureux added the game winner midway through the third period.

Most Important Meeting: The Sioux and Huskies have never met in the NCAA tournament, so I will go with the most important meeting that never was: in 1965, the Sioux lost to Boston College, 4-3, one game short of the national championship game, where they would have faced the Michigan Tech Huskies, who won the second of their three titles by defeating the Eagles. UND settled for third place that season, downing Brown University, 9-5. North Dakota went 13-3-0 in the regular season in 1964-65, with two of those three losses coming at the hands of Michigan Tech.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 142-90-9 (.608), including a 79-33-4 (.698) record in games played in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: UND has posted a 9-0-1 (.950) record in the last ten games between the teams. The only blemish on that mark came in January 2009 when the teams skated to a 3-3 tie in Houghton. North Dakota avenged the tie with a 5-0 drubbing the following night. The Fighting Sioux have outscored the Huskies 50-16 in the last ten games.

Game News and Notes

This weekend’s playoff series will mark the third time in four seasons that UND hosts the Huskies in the first round of the WCHA playoffs. Michigan Tech has not played in the NCAA tournament since 1981, but advanced to the WCHA Final Five in 2007. Sioux forwards Matt Frattin, Jason Gregoire, and Evan Trupp have all joined UND’s Century Club (100 career points) in the past two weekends. North Dakota is now averaging four goals per game, and the team is 20-1-1 when scoring at least four goals.

The Prediction

North Dakota will roll on Friday night, but have a tougher time on Saturday. The Huskies go down, but not without a fight. UND 6-1, 4-2.

Bonus Predictions

#11 MSU-Mankato at #2 Denver: Denver in 3

#10 Bemidji State at #3 Nebraska-Omaha: Nebraska-Omaha in 2

#9 St. Cloud State at #4 Minnesota-Duluth: St. Cloud State in 3

#8 Alaska-Anchorage at #5 Minnesota: Minnesota in 3

#7 Wisconsin at #6 Colorado College: Colorado College in 3

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments, suggestions, and predictions.

It’s likely to be another quiet weekend for the Sioux in the PairWise Rankings, so this article will take a quick tour of some other WCHA teams in more interesting situations.

Though Duluth and Wisconsin seem in free-fall, they can still recover. St. Cloud’s upward momentum should slow a little.

If there’s one thing almost everyone in the WCHA can agree on, it’s that Bemidji State should sweep the Gophers and stay a TUC.

The analysis below focuses just on this week’s possible outcomes. There is some good discussion on the season outlook and what could happen to UND in the Bracketology 2011 thread.

North Dakota

PWR Rank #2
Comparisons: 30 won, 1 lost

What UND wants this weekend:

• UNH over BC. Shouldn’t matter much this weekend, but if UND were to falter, BC is a little closer on UND’s heels because it’s closer in both TUC and RPI.

Denver

PWR Rank #5
Comparisons: 27 won, 4 lost

What Denver wants this weekend:

• At least one BC over New Hampshire win (or UNH could take RPI and the comparison)
• At least one win Bemidji St over Minnesota (so Bemidji St. stays a TUC; otherwise, even if Denver sweep the comparison w/Michigan could flip; if Denver does worse, comparisons w/Merrimack, Miami, and Union could be in play)
• At least one AA over Mankato win (so AA stays a TUC, same reasons as above)
  UMD over UNO. Both teams are chomping at the Pioneers’ heels, but UNO is actually slightly closer due to its better TUC record than UMD.

UNO

PWR Rank #8
Comparisons: 23 won, 8 lost

What UNO wants this weekend:

• Wants BC to sweep New Hampshire. UNO is losing both comparisons, but New Hampshire can be flipped by grabbing RPI this weekend.
• Wants UMN to sweep Bemidji St. UNO is a pretty exclusive club, with Minnesota, hoping for this outcome. The Mavericks are currently losing the comparison with Bemidji State because of their 0-3 head-to-head record. A sweep by the Gophers would be enough to overcome that damage.
• Providence over Merrimack. UNO can take RPI and TUC in the comparison with Merrimack with a sweep.

UMD

PWR Rank #11
Comparisons: 21 won, 10 lost

What UMD wants this weekend:

• BC to sweep New Hampshire. UMD already loses the comparison to BC, so gaining some distance on New Hampshire (a mere .0006 behind in RPI) maximizes UMD’s PWR this weekend. However, this is a rare example of this weekend’s best outcome perhaps not being best in the long run. If UMD plans on winning a lot, they might prefer to see BC lose because they’re going to separate themselves from UNH anyway, and would like to be able to more easily pass BC in the conference tournaments.
• Providence to sweep Merrimack. Merrimack has a mere .001 lead in RPI.

SCSU

PWR Rank #20
Comparisons: 13 won, 18 lost

What SCSU wants this weekend:

• Bemidji St. over Minnesota. This series is huge for St. Cloud. SCSU wants Bemidji State to stay a TUC so it can keep its 3-1-0 record vs. them, or at least 4 currently won TUC comparisons could flip. Also, SCSU could take the comparison with Minnesota if the Gophers lose.
• Lake Superior over Ohio St. SCSU doesn’t want OSU to become a TUC, or they would give 3-1-0 to Alaska, 2-2 to Ferris St, and 1-1 OSU (against all of whom SCSU has a razor thin TUC lead).
• Western Michigan sweeps Ferris St. This one is a little more complicated and seems to be another short-term play, but it matters a lot (I think it may mostly come into play defensively if SCSU loses one). Edit — see the comments at the bottom, this series is actually next weekend.

UW

PWR Rank #21
Comparisons: 11 won, 20 lost

What Wisconsin wants this weekend:

• Bemidji St. over Minnesota. Yep, TUC-cliff and a 2-0 record vs the Beavers. Plus, with the right outcomes in its own games, the Badgers can take the comparison with Minnesota.
• Michigan St. over Alaska. The Badgers want Michigan St. to become a TUC, which a single win will probably do. UW’s TUC record is so miserable (.375) that there’s significant upside potential.
• Mass. sweeps Maine. Hard to believe the Badgers can take the comparison with Maine this weekend, but it seems they could. This sweep could give UW the COP criterion, and either TUC or RPI could be within reach.

UMN

PWR Rank #19
Comparisons: 13 won, 18 lost

What Minnesota wants this weekend:

• Mass. sweeps Maine. Same as UW, Mass. is a common opponent with Maine. Unlike UW, the Gophers already have the RPI comparison over Maine, so this would give UMN the comparison.
• Colgate over RPI. This must be a defensive play to keep Rennselaer from passing the Gophers in RPI if the Gophers slip.

Colorado College

PWR Rank: #14
Comparisons: 17 won, 14 lost

What CC wants this weekend:

• Denver over St. Cloud. This is another useful in the short run, giving up in the long run situations. Denver has the comparison with CC right now, so hoping for this is kind of throwing in the towel on ever catching Denver. BUT, it would prevent SCSU from overtaking the Tigers if CC loses.
• Bemidji St. over Minnesota. But not for the usual TUC cliff reason; in fact, CC is actually 0-2 vs. Bemidji St. This is another defensive play. If CC loses at all, Minnesota could easily overtake them on RPI.
• Colgate over RPI. CC could take the comparison with Rensselaer by taking RPI.
• Quinnipiac over Brown. CC wants Quinnipiac to stay a TUC.

If the season ended today, Wisconsin (#14 PWR) would be right on the cusp of making the NCAA tournament and Minnesota (#18 PWR) would miss it.

Each would have to get up into the #12-#13 range to feel good about making the tournament at-large, or plan on winning the WCHA tournament.

Here are the outlooks for each for this weekend.

Minnesota

If the Gophers sweep, they’re most likely to land in the 17-18 range, with 19 also a distinct possibility.

Here are the other games that help them increase their PWR the most this weekend:

• UMD over CC (one win)
• Merrimack over Maine (one win)
• Vermont over BU (sweep)
• SCSU over UW (sweep)
• Notre Dame over W. Michigan (sweep)

Wisconsin

If the Badgers sweep, 13-14 is most likely with 12-15 somewhat probable.

Here are the other games that help them increase their PWR the most this weekend:

• Lake Superior over Miami (one helps, sweep is best)
• Northeastern over New Hampshire (sweep)
• AA over Alaska (one helps, two is better)
• UMD over CC (sweep)

Updated to better contribute to a conversation going on in Bracketology 2011, here’s UW’s outlook for it’s final four regular season games.

In the past couple of months, I’ve heard plenty of comments about my score predictions and how accurate they (sometimes) are. I always have four things in mind when I set out to anticipate the results of a game or series:

#1: How many points will each team earn on the weekend? This one is fairly simple. Do I expect a split? Sweep? Three points?

#2: The result of each individual game (win, loss, or tie). In other words, will the home team take the opener but struggle in the rematch? Will travel be a factor? How have the teams been playing on Fridays and Saturdays?

#3: The nature of each game. Will the result be lopsided? Low scoring? Racehorse hockey?

#4: The actual score I expect for each game. Hockey scores are so random, with special teams, goaltending, and in-game adjustments all playing a role.

I went back and looked at the past 10 weekends for North Dakota. One of the weekends was a single game at Duluth (Hall of Fame Game), while the other nine were two-game series. So we’ve got a stretch of 19 games to examine.

Here are my predictions, the actual scores, and a comment for each series.

vs. Notre Dame Prediction: 5-2, 2-2. Actual Scores: 6-3, 2-2. I feel good about this; picking a three point series is tough, and I nearly nailed both scores.

vs. St. Cloud State Prediction: 5-2, 3-3. Actual Scores: 3-1. 6-2. Meh.

at MSU-Mankato Prediction: 4-3, 4-2. Actual Scores 4-3, 4-2. Doesn’t get any better than this.

at Minnesota-Duluth Prediction: 4-3. Actual Score: 5-0. Predicted the victory, but that’s about it.

vs. Robert Morris Prediction: 6-1, 3-2. Actual Scores: 8-0, 2-1. As I said above, I nailed the results and the types of games we could expect. Good stuff here.

vs. Minnesota Prediction: 2-3, 4-1. Actual Scores: 2-3, 4-1. Nailed it again. This is when the buzz about my predictions really started.

vs. Nebraska-Omaha Prediction: 3-2, 3-3. Actual Scores: 4-8, 4-2. Ugh.

at Colorado College Prediction: 3-2, 3-4. Actual Scores: 2-4, 6-0. I called the split, but had the wins reversed and the scores were not close at all.

vs. Alaska-Anchorage Prediction: 6-2, 2-1. Actual Scores 6-1, 3-1. I’m as happy about this as I am about calling both scores right. No one expected UND to hang 6 on the Seawolves, but I had to go with my gut.

at St. Cloud State Prediction: 3-3, 5-1. Actual Scores: 3-3, 3-2. Called the three points and got the opening score correct. The second game was much closer than the four goal cushion I gave the Sioux, but still not bad.

So if you’re counting at home (and if, amazingly, you’re still reading), the following stats might help:

I called the exact score in 6 of 19 games.

I predicted the correct result (win, loss, or tie) for each individual game 14 out of 19 times.

I correctly predicted the number of points the Sioux would earn in 8 of 10 weekends, only missing UNO (called three points, series was a split) and SCSU (called three points, series was a UND sweep).

Over the last ten weekends, I predicted UND’s record in those games would be 13-2-4 (.789). North Dakota’s actual record was 14-3-2 (also .789).

Bottom line: I’ll keep cranking out scores and we’ll see how close we can get the rest of the way.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions.

Look back at the last week

PWR Rankings

UND is currently sitting at #3 in the PWR, behind BC and Yale. The Sioux win 25 of 28 comparisons, losing the comparisons to BC, Merrimack, and Yale.

UND PWR Details

Merrimack took the comparison with UND by sweeping UNH. That gave Merrimack over 10 games vs. TUCs and improved Merrimack’s record vs. TUCs to slightly better than UND’s.

This weekend

Getting swept or splitting will most likely result in UND staying put at #3 (though getting swept would open up the realistic possibility of a decline). A sweep for the Sioux would make a climb to #2 reasonably likely.

Games to watch

One biggie, no surprise:

Northeastern over Boston College — a single win by Northeastern would help UND overtake B.C. (BC’s lead is a mere .0001 in RPI)

Others with a more minor impact:

Massachusetts over Merrimack — a pure defensive play. I don’t see an obvious way for UND to take back the comparison with Merrimack this weekend. However, if UND faltered, Merrimack could overtake UND in comparisons won and PWR.
New Hampshire over Vermont — I honestly can’t figure out in which scenarios this matters, but it does.
MTech over Denver — prevent Denver from overtaking UND if the Sioux falter.
Princeton over Yale — for Yale to lose the top spot this weekend, they have to lose to Princeton.

Yale Watch

If Yale loses to both Quinnipiac and Princton, they stand less than a 25% chance of holding onto the #1 spot.

If Yale sweeps, they’re guaranteed to hold onto the #1 spot.

All scenarios in which Yale loses the #1 spot this weekend include a loss to Princeton, though it’s technically possible for Yale to beat Quinnipiac and still fall.

For UND to take the comparison with Yale would require taking both RPI and TUC. Princeton is a TUC.

BC needs to take 2 of RPI, TUC, and COP. The only remaining opportunity to take COP would be if Yale lost to Colgate next weekend.

TUC Cliff Watch

The five teams near the TUC cliff, against whom UND has winning records, are all currently at or over .500 in RPI.

Team	RPI	UND record
Alaska	.5090	1-0
St Cloud St	.5084	2-0 (2 remain)
Robert Morris	.5046	2-0
Alaska-Anchorage	.5032	2-0-1
Bemidji St	.5000	2-0 (2 remain)

While it’s true that UND has nowhere to go but down in TUC, a significant negative impact on UND remains unlikely.

Season Outlook

If UND keeps winning (e.g. 4 or more of the remaining 6 games), the Sioux stand a great chance of finishing the regular season in the top 4. The Sioux can do a lot to push themselves toward #2 overall, but to reach #1 overall is going to require some outside help.

Resources
Current PWR rankings (SiouxSports.com)
Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
USCHO Bracketology Blog (USCHO.com)