Category: Men’s Hockey

The Fighting Sioux and Mavericks have both built a reputation as tough, physical hockey teams. The last time these two teams played a regular-season series in Grand Forks, five players were ejected for fighting in the first game. Tensions from that game spilled over into the following season when Rylan Kaip finally squared off against Trevor Bruess after waiting eleven months for the opportunity.

On paper, MSU-M and UND have very similar special teams percentages, but Mankato spends much more time killing penalties, while North Dakota finds itself on the power play much more frequently. The breakdown:

MSU-Mankato: 5.76 power plays per game, 6.79 penalty kills per game
North Dakota: 6.70 power plays per game, 5.27 penalty kills per game

The teams have combined for 13 shorthanded goals this season, including three by the Mavs’ Zach Harrison against UND in the WCHA opener for both schools.

In the impossible-to-predict race for home ice in the conference playoffs, the Mavericks are currently in eighth place but could move up to fourth with a sweep of North Dakota. UND would find itself in first place with a sweep and a Denver loss this weekend.

Minnesota State University Mankato Team Profile

Head Coach: Troy Jutting (9th season at MSUM, 140-158-41, .473)
This Season: 13-13-3 Overall, 9-11-2 WCHA (8th)
National Rankings: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: 24th
Team Offense: 3.17 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.10 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.8% (33 of 167)
Penalty Kill: 79.7% (157 of 197)
Last Season: 19-16-4, 12-12-4 WCHA (4th)
Key Players: Senior F Mick Berge (6-19-25), Junior F Trevor Bruess (10-4-14), Sophomore F Mick Louwerse (12-12-24), Sophomore D Kurt Davis (6-22-28), Senior G Mike Zacharias (12-10-3, 2.95 GAA, .904 SV)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 122-67-18, .633)
This Season: 16-11-3 Overall, 11-6-3 WCHA (3rd)
National Rankings: #11/#11
PairWise Ranking: 16th
Team Offense: 3.47 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.73 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.4% (37 of 201)
Penalty Kill: 85.4% (135 of 158)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (12-11-23), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (9-12-21), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-19-23), Sophomore F Matt Frattin (12-7-19), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-25-27), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (16-8-3, 2.51 GAA, .909 SV)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: October 18, 2008 (Mankato, MN). North Dakota scored three power play goals in the third period to knot the game at 3-3 and Chris Vandevelde scored a shorthanded goal with under ten seconds remaining for a 4-3 victory. The Mavericks won Friday’s opener 5-1, largely due to Zach Harrison’s shorthanded hat trick.

Last meeting in Grand Forks: March 10, 2007. The Fighting Sioux held on for a 2-1 victory and a sweep of the WCHA first round playoff series. North Dakota won the opener, 5-2.

All-time record: UND leads the all-time series 29-10-7 (.707), including a 17-6-3 record (.712) in Grand Forks. Remarkably, 10 of the 44 games played between the two teams have come in the WCHA playoffs, with North Dakota winning eight of those ten games.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has not lost this season when leading after one period of play (9-0-1). UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in 27 consecutive games (including 26 starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Peter Waselovich, who played in a school-record 32 straight games during UND’s 1973-74 season. Maverick freshman forward Mike Louewerse (12-12-24) ranks third in the WCHA in rookie scoring. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 18th on the Fighting Sioux career scoring list, one point behind David Hoogsteen (1995-99). UND is three points behind league leaders Denver and Wisconsin. The Pioneers play one game this weekend (at Colorado College), while the Badgers are idle. A Sioux sweep coupled with a Denver loss would put North Dakota in first place with three weeks remaining in the regular season. UND and MSU-M are two of the three teams (along with Wisconsin) that have swept a weekend series from Minnesota in 2009.

The Prediction

Both teams have a lot to play for, and a split is likely. But North Dakota has been rolling four lines effectively and playing well at home, so I’m looking for the Fighting Sioux to take three points. UND 5-3, 3-3 tie.

The bye week predictions’ results were again solid — the results went slightly against the “cheer for” recommendations so UND ended up at the bottom of the expected curve (keep in mind the predictions were through Monday, pre-Beanpot finale, at which time UND’s PWR was #16).

Without further ado…

Effect on PWR of this weekend’s games

UND wins 0: 78% of being #17-#18, 98% chance of being #16-#19
UND splits: 44% of being #16, 96% chance of being #15-#17
UND sweeps: 73% of being #11-#13, 89% chance of being #10-#14

Other teams to cheer for (or against) this weekend

Mass.-Lowell sweeping Boston College gives UND an average .88 bump in PWR ranking
Providence sweeping New Hampshire gives UND an average .86 bump in PWR ranking
Michigan St. sweeping Ohio St. gives UND an average .82 bump in PWR ranking
Alaska-Anchorage sweeping Minnesota gives UND an average .77 bump in PWR ranking

And a special split cheer against:

Yale losing to RPI and Union gives UND a .79 bump

Likely PWR outcomes for regular season based on remaining UND outcomes

Winning 6 of its remaining 8 is the worst UND can do and still stand over a 50% chance of being #13 or higher in the PWR at the end of the regular season.

Ok, so it’s really past midseason, but with the bye week upon us and the stretch run ahead of us, I thought I’d take a look at how North Dakota’s season has gone so far and spend some time discussing what to watch for the rest of the way.

The Lows:

It was an inconsistent first half for the Fighting Sioux, as North Dakota went 5-8-1 in October and November. UND did not find consistent goaltending until mid-November, and injuries to Chay Genoway and Joe Finley depleted the defensive corps and forced freshmen defenseman Ben Blood and Corey Feinhage into action.

North Dakota’s loss and tie at Minnesota-Duluth in November may prove costly come tournament time, as both teams are squarely on the bubble for the NCAAs. At the moment, the Bulldogs win the comparison against UND, largely due to the results of that series. The two teams will not meet again in the regular season.

The Great Lakes Invitational was the only hiccup in an otherwise stellar December and January. UND lost to Michigan State and Michigan Tech by identical 2-1 scores. Had one or both of those games ended up as North Dakota victories, the Fighting Sioux would not be in the precarious post-season position they currently find themselves in.

The Highs:

As I mentioned above, the Fighting Sioux have come on strong in the last two months, posting a record of 11-3-2 and vaulting to second place in the league standings. After notching only two goals in two games at the Great Lakes Invitational, UND averaged 4.2 goals per game in January and went 7-1-2.

Freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has been the most important part of North Dakota’s second half surge. Since taking over the starting job midway through a November 14th game against Alaska-Anchorage, the rookie netminder has posted a 13-5-3 record with a goals-against average of 2.22 and a save percentage of .917. During that stretch, Eidsness has allowed more than three goals just once, a 7-4 home victory against St. Cloud State.

Another key component for UND’s success has been balanced scoring. Opponents cannot simply key on one line to stop North Dakota’s offensive output, as twelve Fighting Sioux players are averaging more than a point per weekend. Ryan Martens (10 goals, 9 assists) and Brad Miller (4 goals, 19 assists) are having outstanding senior campaigns, while sophomore forward Matt Frattin is tied for the team lead with twelve goals after netting only four all of last season (in 43 games).

Freshmen forwards David Toews (5-6-11), Brett Hextall (8-8-16), and Jason Gregoire (10-10-20) have all stepped in and contributed right away. Hextall and Gregoire, in particular, have been outstanding while paired with senior center Ryan Duncan.

North Dakota’s home sweep of Minnesota was another highlight of the season so far. In drubbing the visiting Gophers 6-3 and 6-1, the Fighting Sioux demonstrated that they could play a full 120 minutes of hockey against any team in the country.

What To Watch For:

The race for the McNaughton Cup is the first item of interest for this year’s team. North Dakota currently sits all alone in second place in the league standings, one point behind Denver and one point ahead of third-place Wisconsin. The Fighting Sioux will travel to Wisconsin for the final weekend of the regular season in a series that might well determine the conference champion.

UND is in good shape for home ice in the first round of the playoffs, but anything can happen over the final month of the season. MSU-Mankato, for example, is currently in seventh place in the WCHA but could pull to within one point of North Dakota with a sweep next weekend in Grand Forks.

North Dakota is squarely on the bubble for the NCAA tournament, and with the potential of 10-14 games remaining before the field of 16 is announced, will have to win at least 75% of those games or win the WCHA Final Five to advance to the national tournament. With difficult road trips remaining to Anchorage and Wisconsin, UND will need to continue its stellar home ice play (9-3-1 at Ralph Engelstad Arena this season) against MSU-Mankato and Colorado College, two teams the Sioux split with earlier this season.

Across the league, Denver and Minnesota appear to be locks for the NCAA tournament, while Wisconsin, Minnesota-Duluth, Colorado College, St. Cloud State, and North Dakota all have a chance of receiving an at-large bid. I expect the WCHA to field three or four teams in this year’s tournament.

It’s amazing to think that UND is in position to claim the McNaughton Cup as league champion but could still miss the NCAA tournament. A medicore non-conference record of 5-5-0 has put North Dakota in this position, but there are still plenty of games left to be played.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments and suggestions.

For frequent readers, the only surprise this weekend was the amusing groundswell of interest in my headshot.

There was no surprise in UND’s PWR, which came out right in the meaty part of the curve again — quoting Forecasting the PWR… a look ahead at SCSU, “Split: 77% chance of landing #14 or #15”. The Sioux split, and are #15.

Forecast

You might think this a boring week for predictions, given that UND doesn’t play. Quite to the contrary, it’s one of the more interesting to date.

Because UND doesn’t play, there’s only a single distribution of where UND is likely to end up. Because UND has no games, all movement through the distribution is caused entirely by other teams’ results. It’s an interesting look at how much PWR is influenced, in just a single weekend, by other teams’ movements.

#14-#15 — 62% likelihood
#13-#16 — 93% likelihood
#8 — 1/1,000,000 chance

Who else to cheer for?

Note — updated as of 2:30PM CT, Feb. 2.  List was incorrect before then.  Hat tip to Siouxweet, see comments below.

The results this week are a little wonky because of all the split series in which a team is playing two different opponents.

Denver winning 2 games (Minnesota Duluth) gives UND an average PWR ranking increase of 1.16

Minnesota winning 1 game (Wisconsin) gives UND an average PWR ranking increase of .92 (the sweep increases that to .95)

Notre Dame winning 2 games (Ohio St) gives UND an average PWR ranking increase of .92 (1 game gives just .25)

Massachusetts winning 2 games (B.C. and Mass Lowell) gives UND an average PWR ranking increase of .86

Others the Sioux want to see win: Harvard (over Yale and BU), Colgate (over Princeton), and Cornell (over Princeton)

TUC cliff quirk of the week: Maine sweeping UNH gives UND a .85 raise, but a single win harms us.  Presumably the two wins would push Maine into TUC territory.

Special Timing Note

Given the Beanpot, note that this forecast includes predictions of tonight’s games to create a predicted PWR as of next Monday, excluding that day’s games.

Though the Sioux continue to complicate things with ties, I’m again going to declare reasonable success in last week’s prediction.  A split was predicted to most likely land UND in the 14-17 range and a sweep in the 11-14 range.  3 points on the weekend left UND at 14-15.

So, without further ado, this week’s forecast:

Help for those who don’t like reading graphs:

Sioux sweep: 67% chance of landing at #12 or #13, 94% chance of landing between #11-#14.

Split: 77% chance of landing #14 or #15

Sioux swept: 60% chance of landing #17 or #18, 91% chance of landing between #16-#19.

Who else to cheer for?

Of teams playing just 1 game:

Vermont win over New Hampshire gives UND an average rise of .472

Of teams playing 2 games:

A Bemidji St sweep over Bob Morris gives UND an average rise of .607 (a single win gives UND a rise of .277)
An Alaska sweep over Ohio State gives UND an average rise of .518 (a single win gives UND a rise of .247)

End of season outlook

Last but not least, there’s been a lot of speculation how many games UND needs to win to make the tournament. For the regular season only, here’s UND likely PWR ranking based on how many of its remaining games it wins. To be comfortably ranked higher than 13 would require winning 80%, though it’s a tossup at 60%, and still possible at 50%.

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its scheduling system, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season (and play the other schools twice one season, four times the next, and so on). Minnesota and Wisconsin were paired up, as were Colorado College and Denver. All four of those schools, and particularly Minnesota and Wisconsin, would have made excellent schedule partners for UND.

And which of the remaining teams would become North Dakota’s schedule partner? Alaska-Anchorage? Mankato? No, as the two newest members of the WCHA (1993 and 1999, respectively), the Seawolves and Mavericks were paired with each other. How about Minnesota-Duluth or Michigan Tech, schools which had been members of the conference for over 35 years? No again. Those two schools are just over 200 miles apart, and that was certainly a factor in the decision.

That left St. Cloud State, a familiar foe for Sioux fans from North Central Conference football and basketball games. The St. Cloud State Huskies had been a Division I hockey program for 15 years (and a WCHA member for 12) before the 2002-03 season, and had posted a 83-34-6 (.699) record over the previous three seasons. By contrast, from 1999-02, UND held a record of 76-35-16 (.654).

The two schools had played a handful of meaningful games in the past. In 1991 (St. Cloud’s first in the league), the Huskies and Sioux met in Grand Forks for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. St. Cloud took the opener, 4-2, before falling 10-2 and 7-4 in games 2 and 3. The two teams met in the 1998 and 2000 WCHA Final Five semifinal games, with North Dakota prevailing in both contests. Perhaps the best reason to be optimistic about the rivalry was the 2001 WCHA Final Five championship game, a hard-fought contest which St. Cloud State won on Derek Eastman’s overtime winner.

It’s fair to say that in 2002 there was confusion AND cautious optimism surrounding the potential rivalry between the two teams. (And on a personal note, I had already traveled to St. Cloud for the Sioux/Husky games four times before the rivalry announcement was made, and I was more than pleased that I would now be able to make this trip every year.)

It’s also fair to say that the rivalry has caught on over the past seven seasons. The two teams have played eight overtime contests in their 30 regular-season meetings, and points are tough to come by, at home and on the road. The fans have also made their mark on the partnership between the schools, as the UND/SCSU rivalry now has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is awarded to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games. As you may be able to see in the photo above, the winning team is engraved for each year. UND won the Challenge Cup in 2005, going 3-0-1 against the Huskies. St. Cloud took the trophy back in 2006, sporting a record of 3-1-0 against North Dakota. In 2007, the Sioux won two games and tied the other two, collecting six points and the Challenge Cup. The next season, the teams shared the Cup, with UND and SCSU each winning one game and tying the other two. And last year, North Dakota sprinted to the lead in the Challenge Cup race by winning both games in Grand Forks but needed a Saturday victory in St. Cloud to salvage a split on the weekend and reclaim the Cup.

The Challenge Cup will be on display at the SiouxSports.com pre-game social this Saturday, November 14th from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Southgate Grill and Bar in Grand Forks. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of this hockey rivalry. The event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

For more on this weekend’s series, click here. Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions.

At the beginning of the season, I gave you my predicted order of finish in the WCHA:

1. North Dakota
2. Denver
3. Colorado College
4. MSU-Mankato
5. Wisconsin
6. St. Cloud State
7. Minnesota
8. Minnesota-Duluth
9. Michigan Tech
10. Alaska-Anchorage

And here’s how the race stacks up heading into this weekend’s action:

1. Denver (11-5-2, 24 points)
2. North Dakota (10-5-3, 23 points)
3. Wisconsin (10-6-2, 22 points)
t4. Minnesota (9-4-3, 21 points)
t4. Colorado College (9-8-3, 21 points)
6. Minnesota-Duluth (7-6-5, 19 points)
7. St. Cloud State (8-9-1, 17 points)
8. MSU-Mankato (7-11-2, 16 points)
9. Alaska-Anchorage (5-9-4, 14 points)
10. Michigan Tech (1-14-5, 7 points)

It is worth noting that while the majority of teams have ten games remaining, Minnesota has twelve games left while CC, MSU-M, and MTU have only eight games remaining. Amazingly, only three points separate the top five teams in the standings. More impressively, the top nine teams can still finish with a winning record in league play.

So far, the biggest surprises to me have been Minnesota and Mankato. In my season preview, I predicted that the Gophers would struggle to score two goals per game. But I also said this:

If incoming freshman Jordan Schroeder (US Under 18) is as good as advertised and redshirt junior Ryan Stoa brings much-needed offensive punch, Minnesota could find itself in the top five.

Minnesota’s top two scorers are Ryan Stoa (15 goals, 15 assists for 30 points) and Jordan Schroeder (10-17-27). Because of their contributions, the Gophers are clipping along at 3.45 goals per game and are in prime position to contend for the McNaughton Cup.

On the other hand, I picked Mankato as a surprise team in the top five:

With this team (including Mick Berge, Trevor Breuss, and Mike Zacharias), the Mavericks should gain home ice and advance to the WCHA Final Five. The only question for this squad is how they will handle the expectations.

Senior Mick Berge (5-18-23) has done well and sophomore defenseman Kurt Davis (5-22-27) has been a nice surprise, but junior Trevor Breuss (10-4-14) hasn’t met expectations after turning down a pro contract to return for a third season with the Mavericks. But the biggest reason that the Mavs have faltered is goaltending. Zacharias has struggled to keep his save percentage at .900, and he’s allowing more than three goals per game. Last season, he posted a goals-against average of only 2.08 and a .924 save percentage.

Everything else has gone pretty much as I expected, which makes for a very interesting home stretch for the league title. Take a look at the remaining opponents for the top five teams:

Denver: vs. UAA (2), @ UMD (2), @ CC (1), @ UW (2), vs, SCSU (2), vs. CC (1)
North Dakota: @ SCSU (2), vs. MSUM (2), @ UAA (2), vs. CC (2), @ UW (2)
Wisconsin: vs. UMD (2), @ UMN (2), vs. DU (2), @ MSUM (2), vs. UND (2)
Minnesota: @ MSUM (1), vs. MSUM (1), vs. UW (2), vs. UAA (2), @ CC (2), vs. UMD (2), @ MTU (2)
Colorado College: @ MTU (2), vs. DU (1), vs. UMN (2), @ UND (2), @ DU (1)

Colorado College likely won’t move up much in the standings with only eight games left, but they have six games left against teams above them, so anything is possible.

Minnesota is in the best position of any team in the top five, with twelve games remaining (including seven at home and two road games at Michigan Tech). Expect the Gophers to contend for the McNaughton Cup.

Wisconsin is in an interesting spot, with six of its ten games against Denver, North Dakota, and Minnesota. It’s tough to get a read on the Badgers; after a winless October (0-6-1), UW went 10-1-2 in November and December but has posted a pedestrian 3-3-0 mark so far in January.

North Dakota is the country’s hottest team, going 10-2-2 in December and January after a 5-8-1 start. On the last two weekends of WCHA action, UND hosts Colorado College and travels to Madison to take on the Badgers, and those two weekends will determine whether the Fighting Sioux hoist the McNaughton Cup. A 5-5 record in non-conference play hurts UND in the PairWise rankings (used to select the 16-team field for the NCAA tournament), but the way the Sioux are playing right now, they might just win the WCHA Final Five and not have to worry about the committee.

Denver lost Tyler Bozak (7-14-21 in 18 games) to injury in mid-December, and hope they are still playing when he returns to action. It will be interesting to see how the Pioneers respond to their disappointing performance against UND last weekend.

If I had to predict how the race would play out, I would put them in this order:

1. North Dakota
2. Minnesota
3. Denver
4. Wisconsin
5. Colorado College

And yes, I admit that it is possible for other teams in the league to secure a top-five finish. Of those, St. Cloud State appears most likely to make that move after taking three points from the Tigers in Colorado Springs last weekend.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions.

2009 has been very good to North Dakota.

The Fighting Sioux have not lost since the calendar turned to the new year, going 6-0-1 so far in January and vaulting to within one point of first-place Denver. With a victory in Saturday’s rematch, UND would claim the top spot in the WCHA with ten games to play.

More importantly, North Dakota’s 8-3 victory over visiting Denver has them in 14th place in the PairWise rankings. There is plenty of hockey to be played, but UND’s record over the past two months (10-2-1) has all but erased the memory of a 5-8-1 start.

The Fighting Sioux dominated the opening period on Friday night, outscoring the Pioneers 4-1. UND’s fourth goal chased DU goaltender Marc Cheverie from the action in favor of Lars Paulgaard. Cheverie returned for the second period and part of the third, but North Dakota’s seventh goal sent him to the showers for good.

UND took control of the hockey game with a balanced attack. All four lines contributed to the rout, led by Evan Trupp-Chris Vandevelde-Matt Frattin (2 goals and 3 assists) and Matt Watkins-Darcy Zajac-Ryan Martens (2 goals and 3 assists). North Dakota’s two leading scorers, defensemen Chay Genoway and Brad Miller, were held off the scoresheet, but Joe Finley (1 goal, 3 assists) and Jake Marto (1 goal, 2 assists) provided punch from the blueline.

Sioux freshman forward Brett Hextall completed a rare triple play midway through the third period: he drew three penalties at the same time. Rhett Rhakshani elbowed Hextall, causing the refs to call a delayed penalty. After Denver touched the puck and the whistle blew, Anthony Maiani skated past Hextall and dragged him down by the jersey. Both Rhakshani (elbowing) and Maiani (misconduct) were sent to the box at 9:59 of the third period. As the referees were sorting out the penalties and the scoreboard, UND prepared to take the faceoff for their 5 on 3 power play. Dustin Jackson was lined up across from Hextall for the faceoff, and made several attempts to engage Hextall before the puck was dropped. Jackson’s slash did not go unnoticed, and he was sent to the showers with a 2 (slashing) and 10 (misconduct) at – you guessed it – 9:59. It was abundantly clear that Brett Hextall took several Pioneers off of their game on Friday night.

The remaining ten minutes of the hockey game could best be described as a powder keg, but I thought the referees kept things under control. They stepped in quickly and did a nice job of calling the extra penalty on the initiating player. I also appreciated their attempts to stop Denver from emptying their bench onto the ice at the end of every period (if you remember, that’s what started the Radke vs. Vossberg beatdown last year). I don’t care if “that’s what Denver always does”, it’s not allowed.

In an 8-3 win, the winning goaltender can often be overlooked, but Brad Eidsness turned in another solid performance. He was victimized by a couple of defensive breakdowns late in periods one and two, but he made some key saves early on when the game was tight. Eidsness’ stop on Rhett Rhakshani midway through the first period stands out as a game-changing save.

North Dakota is now 8-0-1 when leading after one, while Denver falls to 1-6-1 when trailing after the opening twenty minutes. Denver fell to 4-4-0 on the road, while the Fighting Sioux have compiled a home record of 9-3-0. UND will be looking for its fourth consecutive stick salute (commemorating a home sweep) in Saturday’s finale.

Freshman defenseman Ben Blood saw his first game action since January 3rd and played well. He used his size effectively and played well with Brad Miller. The coaches felt that Blood had earned a start in practice, but expect to see Zach Jones back in the lineup on Saturday night.

The “overrated” chant is my least favorite chant in the history of hockey. This is what it sounds like to me: “Your team must not be as good as everyone says you are, because even WE can beat you”. Fans, we need to put that chant to rest. And one other thing…I’m not a big wave fan, but if you’re going to start one, wait until a tv timeout or referee’s conference or after a fight when the ice looks like one big yard sale. We don’t need the wave when the puck is in play. END RANT.

The two teams face off Saturday night at 7:07 p.m. In my weekend preview, I had this to say:

The Prediction

North Dakota has fared better against teams that like to transition quickly, and Denver fits the bill. The first period on Friday night will be key for the weekend series. I have a feeling that UND will click in the opener and Denver’s goaltending will even up the series on Saturday. UND 4-2, DU 3-1.

I’m not so certain about Denver’s goaltending after watching Cheverie allow 7 goals on 21 shots, but I do think that the rematch will be closer and more tightly contested. For more on the matchup between the teams, click here.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back after Saturday’s game for more reaction and commentary.

When the Minnesota Golden Gophers came to Ralph Engelstad Arena in early January, North Dakota’s season could have gone in either direction. The Maroon and Gold looked to be the prohibitive favorite in those contests, and UND was in real danger of playing on the road in the WCHA playoffs and missing the NCAA tournament entirely.

What a difference two weeks makes.

The Fighting Sioux swept a pair from the Gophers, took three of four points at Michigan Tech, and find themselves at home this weekend with first place on the line.

The Denver Pioneers arrive in Grand Forks sporting an impressive record (15-6-2) and a high-powered offense (3.65 goals per game). Yet George Gwozdecky’s squad has played only 7 of those 23 games on the road.

North Dakota is in the middle of yet another second-half surge, going 9-2-1 in December and January after opening the season 5-8-1.

In the race for the McNaughton Cup, UND sits in 4th place, three points behind first place Denver. Wisconsin (10-6-2 WCHA, 2nd place) and Minnesota (9-4-3, 3rd) are idle this weekend.

Not only are this weekend’s games pivotal in the league race, it is very likely that a Sioux sweep would vault them into 12th or 13th in the PairWise rankings, used to determine the field for the NCAA tournament. For more on how this weekend’s games could affect the PairWise rankings, read Jim Dahl’s excellent article here.

On the injury front, Denver’s sophomore sensation Tyler Bozak (7 goals and 14 assists in 18 games) has not played since December 12th and is expected to miss the rest of the regular season. For North Dakota, senior forward Andrew Kozek (5 goals, 6 assists) will be a game-time decision after missing last weekend’s series at Michigan Tech.

Denver Team Profile

Head Coach: George Gwozdecky (15th season at DU, 338-211-43, .607)
This Season: 15-6-2 Overall, 11-4-1 WCHA (1st)
National Rankings: #4/#4
PairWise Ranking: 8th
Team Offense: 3.65 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.22 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 14.6% (23 of 157)
Penalty Kill: 87.3% (110 of 126)
Last Season: 26-14-1 Overall (NCAA Midwest Regional semifinalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (3rd)
Key Players: Sophomore F Anthony Maiani (7-21-28), Junior F Rhett Rakhshani (10-11-21), Freshman F Joe Colborne (5-14-19), Sophomore F Kyle Ostrow (7-9-16), Senior D J.P. Testwuide (2-6-8), Sophomore G Marc Cheverie (15-6-2, 2.19 GAA, .925 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 120-66-17, .633)
This Season: 14-10-2 Overall, 9-5-2 WCHA (4th)
National Rankings: #15/#15
PairWise Ranking: 14th (tied)
Team Offense: 3.46 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.77 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.4% (35 of 180)
Penalty Kill: 84.4% (114 of 135)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (10-9-19), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (8-10-18), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-19-23), Senior F Ryan Martens (9-9-18), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-23-25), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (14-7-2, 2.51 GAA, .908 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 21, 2008 (St. Paul, MN). Pioneer freshman forward Anthony Maiani scored an unassisted goal with 80 seconds remaining and Denver added an empty-net goal with six seconds on the clock as DU downed UND 3-1 in a semifinal matchup at the WCHA Final Five. Taylor Chorney scored the lone goal for North Dakota, which suffered only its third loss in 2008 (16-3-3). The Fighting Sioux would rebound and win three straight to claim the NCAA Midwest Regional championship and a fourth consecutive trip to the Frozen Four.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: February 16, 2008. UND won 4-1 to complete the weekend sweep of the visiting Pioneers. Sioux junior winger Andrew Kozek scored a hat trick in Friday’s opener, bringing North Dakota back from a 4-1 deficit to win 5-4. The Sioux scored eight of the last nine goals in the series.

Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 128-110-7 (.537), including a 78-39-4 mark (.661) in games played in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

Denver is 1-5-1 when trailing after one period of play, while North Dakota has not lost a game (7-0-1) when leading after twenty minutes. UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in 23 consecutive games (including 22 starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Peter Waselovich, who played in a school-record 32 straight games during UND’s 1973-74 season. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 21st on the UND career scoring list. Duncan has notched 152 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 20 all-time with two more points this season. In the past seven meetings between the two teams, the Fighting Sioux have killed 30 of 33 Pioneer power play opportunities.

The Prediction

North Dakota has fared better against teams that like to transition quickly, and Denver fits the bill. The first period on Friday night will be key for the weekend series. I have a feeling that UND will click in the opener and Denver’s goaltending will even up the series on Saturday. UND 4-2, DU 3-1.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back after the games for reaction and commentary.

Last week’s A look into the future… UND’s PWR after the Michigan Tech series went pretty well.  If you look back at the chart, UND was most likely to fall between 15 and 17 with a sweep and 20 to 21 with a split.  Here we are, a 3-point series later, and UND’s PWR is currently 16 (it fluctuated from 14 to 16 after UND’s game were finished, based on other teams’ results).

A look at how the Denver games will affect PWR

And you thought the PWR was volatile the last couple weekends.  Get a load of this…

For a quick lesson or reminder how to read the chart:

The three lines represent the potential PWR rankings as of next Monday (Jan. 26) dependent on UND’s performance this weekend.  The far left purple line is UND sweeping, the middle orange line a split, and the right blue line DU sweeping.  The numbers on the bottom are the possible PWR ratings and the numbers on the left axis the likelihood of that ranking.

For example, looking at the high point of the purple line, it’s at about 30% for both 12 and 13.  That means that if UND sweeps Denver, there’s over a 30% chance its PWR will be 12 and over a 30% chance its PWR will be 13 (or over a 60% chance its PWR will be either 12 or 13).

Average increase in UND’s PWR from 1 win this weekend: 5.76 spots
Average increase in UND’s PWR from 2 wins this weekend: 8.50 spots

Other games of interest

One of the reasons predicting PWR is so tricky is that UND’s PWR is influenced by other games as its former and future opponents rise and fall. This week I also recorded which non-UND games have the biggest impact on UND’s PWR as of next Monday.

Team	Average UND PWR if team wins 0	Average UND PWR if team wins 2	Average Gain in UND PWR from team sweep
Northern Michigan over Alaska	16.53	15.16	1.37
Bemidji State over Niagara	16.56	15.30	1.26
SCSU over CC	16.84	15.64	1.20

So, Northern Michigan is the non-UND game that has the biggest impact on UND’s PWR (as of next Monday). If Northern Michigan sweeps Alaska, UND’s PWR will be an average of 1.37 spots higher. To help rationalize why, lets take a look at UND’s current PWR comparisons. The Sioux lose to Alaska 1-2 based on an RPI difference of just .0001; a Northern Michigan sweep almost certainly flips that comparison, explaining most of the jump. You can dig into the others yourself, or trust the computer and cheer for the Beavers and Huskies 😉