Category: Men’s Hockey

Look back at last week’s forecast
Things went about as well for UND as possible during the bye week, with almost every game going as last week’s forecast predicted best for the Sioux.  That landed UND at #11 in the PairWise Rankings today.

Prediction of UND’s PWR after this weekend
If you think of UND as the near the top of its natural range, for how it’s done to date, most of the outcomes are downhill from here.  A climb is possible with a split, but only about a 5% chance.  A sweep would let UND climb in about 75% of possible outcomes (to as high as 6 or 7 in about 9% of scenarios in which UND sweeps).

Games to Watch

As usual, the ranges in which UND’s PWR could land are pretty broad, even for each fixed UND outcome.  Lots of non-UND games can have a pretty big effect on UND’s PWR.  These are the most important non-UND games of the week:

Merrimack over Vermont (win two +1.2, win one +.24)
Northeastern over Massachusetts (win two +1.2, win one +.60)
Boston Univ over Maine (win two +.84, win one +.35)
Lake Superior over Ferris St (win two +.74, win one +.42)
Mankato over Wisconsin (win two +.66, win one +.15)

While explaining why each of those is important is a bit beyond the scope of this post, PWR enthusiasts can study UND’s PWR Details to try to figure it out.

First look at end of season
With only 8 games remaining in the regular season, it’s a good time to take a first look beyond the upcoming weekend to see where UND could end the regular season in PWR.

A #1 seed is still possible, but will take a good streak from the Sioux. Remaining a TUC is almost a certainty, unless the Sioux really slump. To feel pretty confident about making the NCAA tournament requires winning 6 of the remaining 8 before going into the WCHA tournament. However, a good WCHA tournament showing or a little bit of luck, and the Sioux could make the NCAA tournament after winning as little as 3 of the next 8.

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its schedule rotation, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season. St. Cloud State and North Dakota were partnered up in a scheduling system that ends after this year.

Next season, even though the WCHA expands to 12 teams (adding Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha) and implements a new rotating schedule, UND and SCSU will continue to play four games each year. For a complete look at the new WCHA schedule, click here.

Over the past eight seasons, the fans have made their mark on the partnership between the schools. The UND/SCSU rivalry has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is awarded to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games. As you may be able to see in the photo above, the winning team is engraved for each year. UND won the Challenge Cup in 2005, going 3-0-1 against the Huskies. St. Cloud took the trophy back in 2006, sporting a record of 3-1-0 against North Dakota. In 2007, the Sioux won two games and tied the other two, collecting six points and the Challenge Cup. The next season, the teams shared the Cup, with UND and SCSU each winning one game and tying the other two. And last year, North Dakota sprinted to the lead in the Challenge Cup race by winning both games in Grand Forks but needed a Saturday victory in St. Cloud to salvage a split on the weekend and reclaim the Cup.

Earlier this season, the teams split a weekend series in Grand Forks, so the Cup is on the line this weekend in St. Cloud.

The Challenge Cup will be on display at the Center Ice Club pre-game social this Saturday, February 13th from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Legends Bar inside the Holiday Inn (Division Street and 37th Avenue) in St. Cloud. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of this hockey rivalry. There will be complimentary food and door prizes. The event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

Check back later this week for a complete preview of this weekend’s series. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

Checked out the New PWR Details post and can’t make heads or tails of it?

No worries, for those who don’t want to dig into the numbers themselves, but just want to know what’s going to happen — I’ve got the PWR forecaster back up and running. A brief explanation of the technology is at the end of the article.

This is actually a very fun week to first post it, in that the Sioux don’t play. So, you’re getting to see the pure effects of other teams’ games on UND’s PairWise ranking.

Games to watch

Northern Michigan over Ferris St (sweep helps UND about 1.3, single win not much at all)
Alaska over Michigan St (sweep helps UND about 1.2, single win not much)
Wisconsin over Michigan (single win helps UND about 1.2)

Denver/CC over Mercyhurst/Air Force (UND is an average of 1.4 higher if Mercyhurst is swept, 1.5 higher if Air Force is swept, 2.1 lower if Denver is swept, .4 lower if CC is swept)

Looking at UND’s PWR details, a few of these are obvious. UND can take the comparison to Ferris by flipping RPI (even though TUC is about to come into play and currently favors Ferris). Similar story for Michigan St. UND already has the RPI comparison for Michigan so TUC or COP must be up for grabs.

CC/Denver are interesting and less immediately obvious — UND’s 0-7 deficit vs. Denver is insurmountable, so this one isn’t about the direct comparison between UND and Denver. So, there’s some secondary effect there (which interestingly correlates with the common theory of the importance of interconference records. :shrug: )

Brief explanation of the simulator

The PWR forecaster simulates the remainder of the season millions of times, with random outcomes for each game (the probability of each team winning a given game isn’t 50-50, but instead determined by their relative strength as measured by KRACH).

For each set of outcomes, the PairWise Ranking is recalculated and tallied. Those tallies are then used to determine probabilities for particular outcomes, e.g. in 1/5 of outcomes UND is ranked #10 in PWR and in 1/2 of outcomes UND is ranked #11 in PWR, and so forth.

Most readers know they can find the current PairWise Rankings (which mimics the selection process the NCAA uses to seed the tournament) on SiouxSports.com’s PWR Rankings page. For those who have a deep knowledge of PWR and like to dig deeper to see the detailed data behind how it’s currently being calculated, SiouxSports.com has long offered the most thorough PWR details data on the web.

Having been an avid consumer of that data myself for many years, I’ve been working on presenting it in a way that makes it easier to inspect and analyze. Without further ado:

PWR Details for UND

The old way:

The way most people use this page is to try to figure out which comparisons for a given team are most likely to flip. I did that with the old page by scrolling through all the comparisons looking for those that were close, then diving into the details of those that were close to see if any of the criteria could flip.

I think that’s much easier with the new, one page grid. The comparisons are all in a single column on the left, color coded by how close they are. Then, scanning across a single row for all the comparison criteria for a team is similarly easy, again with color coding to indicate whether the comparison is won or lost and by how much.

The new way:

As in the old page, additional details are available for each H2H, TUC, and COP comparison by clicking on each underlined result. Those details include not only what games contribute to the current comparison, but also what future scheduled games will affect it.

March 18, 2005: Denver’s Geoff Paukovitch checks Robbie Bina from behind. February 24, 2006: Mike Prpich pops Paukovitch.

February 16, 2008: The entire DU bench spills onto the ice after every period. That same night: Kyle Radke takes exception.

January 24, 2009: Denver head coach George Gwozdecky parades across the ice to protest a call. The officials bow to his authority, calling five straight penalities against the Fighting Sioux. And earlier this season, the Pioneers were awarded seven power plays in one period and defeated UND, 3-2.

So far, North Dakota seemingly has no answer for the benefits Gwozdecky enjoys from the referees. (Full disclosure: the WCHA league office is in Denver)

The other issue for UND this weekend is that sophomore forward Brett Hextall is not ready to return to the lineup. In the last series played in Grand Forks, Hextall clearly took several Pioneers off their game. In fact, in Friday’s opener, he completed a rare triple play midway through the third period: he drew three penalties at the same time. With Hextall out of the lineup, expect other Sioux skaters to make life miserable for the Pioneers and their coach.

One key area to watch this weekend is special teams play, particularly the Sioux power play against the Denver penalty kill. UND has not scored on its last 19 power play opportunities, and the Pioneers boast the league’s best penalty kill (87.2%). In a series that could turn into a steady parade to the penalty box on both sides, North Dakota will have to score at least one power play goal each night to come out on top.

Denver Team Profile

Head Coach: George Gwozdecky (16th season at DU, 360-223-50, .608)
This Season:  14-6-4 Overall, 10-4-4 WCHA (t-2nd)
National Rankings: #3/#3
PairWise Ranking: t-1st
Team Offense: 3.12 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.67 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.2% (26 of 129)
Penalty Kill: 87.2% (102 of 117)
Last Season: 23-12-5 Overall (NCAA West Regional semifinalist), 16-8-4 WCHA (3rd)
Key Players: Senior F Rhett Rakhshani (16-15-31), Senior F Tyler Ruegsegger (12-16-28), Junior F Anthony Maiani (4-13-17), Sophomore F Joe Colborne (9-14-23), Sophomore D Patrick Wiercioch (4-13-17) Junior G Marc Cheverie (12-3-3, 2.12 GAA, .928 SV%, 5 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 143-79-24, .630)
National Ranking: #4/#4
PairWise Ranking: t-10th
This Season: 13-8-5, 8-7-3 WCHA (6th)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.15 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.7% (29 of 140)
Penalty Kill: 86.6% (116 of 134)
Key Players: Sophomore F Jason Gregoire (13-8-121), Senior F Chris VandeVelde (7-12-19), Freshman F Danny Kristo (8-12-20), Junior F Evan Trupp (5-16-21), Junior D Derrick LaPoint (1-11-12), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (12-6-4, 2.24 GAA, .906 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 21, 2009 (Denver, CO). After jumping out to a 2-0 lead, North Dakota committed seven penalties in the second period and could not solve the Pioneer power play. Denver won 3-2 and completed the weekend sweep.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: January 24, 2009. In a game remembered more for Gwozdecky’s antics on the dasher and on the ice, Denver twice came back to tie UND and the final score read 2-2.  Brad Eidsness made 38 saves to preserve one point for the Fighting Sioux.  A night earlier, North Dakota rolled, 8-3.

Last Ten: North Dakota has a 5-4-1 edge in the last ten games.

Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 129-112-8 (.534), including a 79-39-5 (.663) advantage in games played in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

On average, North Dakota is outshooting teams 33-23 this season. Denver has only lost one game in the past five meetings between the schools. Sioux forwards Even Trupp and Chris Vandevelde each have six career points against the Pioneers. Vegas oddsmakers are offering 6 to 5 that Denver head coach George Gwozdecky stands on the dasher at least once this weekend.

The Prediction

There’s so much on the line (both in the WCHA race and nationally) this weekend that a split seems almost inevitable. But North Dakota has the home ice (and home crowd) advantage, and that should translate into an extra point. Gwozdecky is the wild card in all of this, and if he bends the ear of an official or two, anything is possible. UND 4-3, 3-3 tie.

From the familiar to the unknown.

One week after traveling to Mariucci to face the Golden Gophers in a series that marked the 270th game played between the two teams, North Dakota heads to Ithaca, New York for the first time ever. UND has played Cornell just six times in school history, with four of those meetings in the NCAA tournament and the last two games played in Grand Forks last season.

The Big Red are on a bit of a slide, going just 2-2-2 in their last six games and scoring more than three goals just once in the last eight. Cornell opened the season 7-2-1.

For North Dakota, it’s more of the same. With Chay Genoway in the lineup, the Fighting Sioux were 7-1-1. Without him, the Green and White are a sub-par 5-6-4. Talk has ramped up in recent weeks regarding the possibility that Genoway might apply for a medical hardship year and return to UND next season.

As for this weekend’s action, I expect the games will be played much like Saturday’s finale in Grand Forks last season, a tight-checking affair won and lost on special teams. If the Big Red can keep the game close, senior goaltender Ben Scrivens can and will be the difference.

For North Dakota, the power play is a recent concern after UND went 0 for 10 last weekend in Minneapolis.

Cornell Team Profile

Head Coach: Mike Schafer (15th season at Cornell, 285-153-52, .635)
National Rankings: #9/#7
PairWise Ranking: 17th-tie
This Season: 9-4-3 overall, 7-2-2 ECAC (2nd)
Last Season: 22-10-4 overall (Midwest Regional Finalist), 13-6-3 ECAC
Team Offense: 3.31 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.12 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 24.3% (18 of 74)
Penalty Kill: 88.0% (73 of 83)
Key Players: Senior F Blake Gallagher (11-9-20), Senior F Colin Greening (7-13-20), Junior F Riley Nash (5-9-14), Senior D Brendon Nash (2-8-10), Freshman D Nick D’Agostino (2-7-9), Senior G Ben Scrivens (9-4-3, 2.04 GAA, .928 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 142-77-23, .634)
National Ranking: #5/#6
PairWise Ranking: 12th-tie
This Season: 12-7-5, 8-7-3 WCHA (6th)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.12 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.25 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.0% (29 of 132)
Penalty Kill: 85.8% (97 of 113)
Key Players: Sophomore F Jason Gregoire (12-7-19), Senior F Chris VandeVelde (6-12-18), Freshman F Danny Kristo (8-11-19), Junior F Evan Trupp (5-15-20), Junior D Derrick LaPoint (1-11-12), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (11-6-4, 2.29 GAA, .906 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: November 29, 2008 (Grand Forks, ND). One night after the Fighting Sioux drubbed Cornell 7-3, the teams played a tighter contest on Saturday, with the Big Red scoring the game winner with under four minutes to play. UND had a power play goal disallowed earlier in the contest.

Last meeting at James Lynah Rink: These will be the first two games played between the two schools at Lynah.

Most important meeting: The teams have met twice in the NCAA semifinals, with Cornell coming out on top 1-0 in 1967 and North Dakota returning the favor the following season, 3-1.

All-time: North Dakota leads the all-time series 4-2-0 (.667). The teams have never met in Ithaca, NY.

Game News and Notes

Ben Scrivens has started every game in net for Cornell this season, ranking sixth nationally in goals-against average and fourth in the nation in save percentage. UND junior forward Brad Malone will play in his 100th career game this weekend, joining seniors Chris Vandevelde, Darcy Zajac, and Chay Genoway in reaching the century mark in games played.

The Prediction

Cornell has the edge playing at home, and if Scrivens is on his game, North Dakota will struggle. Call it a hunch, but UND should come out firing after a disappointing weekend at Mariucci, and the Big Red will lock it down on Saturday night. UND 4-2, Cornell 2-1.

A couple weeks ago in my post, First Look at PWR contributor — non-conference records, I suggested that it’s not clear that non-conference games have as profound an impact on PWR as conventional wisdom has grown to suggest.

It’s obviously fairly trivial to mentally construct a scenario in which a single non-conference game has a larger impact than other games because it’s one of very few games that contribute to the common opponents comparisons with quite a few other teams in the other conference. However, it’s not obvious how common and influential such situations are in real life.

Some Sioux fans, disappointed in last week’s outcome versus Minnesota, noted that next week really matters because it’s against a non-conference foe from a major conference. Without further ado, a comparison of the effect on UND’s PWR of the games vs. Minnesota and Cornell.

UND’s PWR after next weekend if…

* – Minnesota games recorded with actual results
+ – Cornell games included (to have same number of GP as Cornell comparison) assumed a split

All scenarios assume only the actual games played to date with the addition of two games between UND and Cornell. The actual PWR after next weekend may look quite different because dozens of other games will actually be played.

As of a PWR calculated today, the outcome of the Cornell games actually matters slightly less than the outcome of the Minnesota games, in the scenarios provided. It’s close enough that it’s easy to shift the outcome (e.g. omitting the split vs. Cornell pushes UND up to #4 with a sweep of Minnesota, etc…).

You can play around yourself using Whelan’s Build your own rankings calculator.

Well, this is how I expected it to shake out – really the best possible solution to a tough problem (twelve teams in the league and only 28 conference games allowed).

The traditional travel partners will remain the same (North Dakota/St. Cloud State, Michigan Tech/Minnesota-Duluth, Denver/Colorado College, Minnesota/Wisconsin, and Minnesota State-Mankato/Alaska-Anchorage), with the addition of Bemidji State being paired with Nebraska-Omaha.

In 2010-11, UND and SCSU will be joined by BSU and UNO to form a four-team “cluster“. The Sioux will play each team in the cluster four times (two games each at home and away) for a total of 12 games. North Dakota will then play the remaining eight teams in the league two games each, for a total of 16 games, with eight on the road and eight at home. Home series in 2010-11 for the Sioux include Alaska-Anchorage, Denver, Minnesota, and Duluth. UND will travel to Colorado College, Michigan Tech, Mankato and Wisconsin.

The “cluster mates” will rotate in each of the five seasons. In 2011-12 UND and SCSU will be joined by Minnesota and Wisconsin. In that season, UND will also host CC, Tech, Mankato, and UNO. The Fighting Sioux will travel to UAA, BSU, Denver, and UMD (in addition to their cluster mates) in 2011-12.

Under this schedule every team in the league will play every other team at home three out of five years (except for the travel partners, who will play each other four times every year). Over the course of the five year schedule, every team plays every other team the same amount of times – home and away.

Tell me what you think. Do you like the new system? Which teams benefit the most? How do you see the league race being affected year in and year out?

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, suggestions, and comments.

When the Sioux and Gophers met in Grand Forks in January of last season, Minnesota was ranked third nationally, while North Dakota was unranked. The Fighting Sioux routed the Maroon and Gold in two straight games, pulled even with Minnesota in the conference standings, and rode that momentum all the way to the WCHA conference championship and the NCAA tournament. Starting with that weekend, North Dakota went 13-2-3 on their way to the WCHA Final Five, while Minnesota went 7-10-2 the rest of the way and failed to make the national tournament even though they were serving as host of the West Regional.

Coming into this weekend’s games, the roles are reversed. The Gophers are playing at home and hoping to kick start their second half with an upset or two against North Dakota. And things are looking up for Minnesota. After allowing 41 goals in their first 13 games (3.15 goals allowed/game), they have tightened up in their last nine, giving up just 18 goals (2.0/game). Junior forward Jacob Cepis, a transfer from Bowling Green, has had an immediate impact, scoring two goals and adding an assist in his first four games with his new team.

For North Dakota, injuries continue to dominate the headlines. Defenseman Chay Genoway (4-6-10 in nine games) and forwards Brett Hextall (8-4-12) and Corban Knight (3-0-3) will miss this weekend’s action. Senior forwards Darcy Zajac (4-7-11) and Chris VandeVelde (6-12-18) are finally healthy, and the return of Danny Kristo (6-11-17) from the World Juniors and Matt Frattin (13-12-25 last season) from suspension give UND some depth up front.

The special teams battle is one to watch this weekend. Minnesota is a -4 this season (14 power play goals scored, 18 allowed), while North Dakota is a +13 (29 scored, 16 allowed). But the Gophers have been better lately, scoring a power play goal in six straight games after opening the season 8 of 66 (12.1%) with the man advantage.

Minnesota Team Profile

Head Coach: Don Lucia (11th season at Minnesota, 267-136-46, .646)
National Ranking: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: 25
This Season: 11-10-1 overall, 6-7-1 WCHA (7th)
Last Season: 17-13-7 overall (missed NCAA tournament), 12-11-5 WCHA (5th)
Team Offense: 2.64 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.68 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.7% (14 of 89)
Penalty Kill: 81.6% (80 of 98)
Key Players: Junior F Mike Hoeffel (10-7-17), Sophomore F Jordan Schroeder (4-11-15), Senior F Tony Lucia (5-12-17), Junior D Cade Fairchild (1-9-10), Junior G Alex Kangas (9-7-0, 2.59 GAA, .910 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 142-77-23, .634)
National Ranking: #4/#4
PairWise Ranking: 9
This Season: 12-6-4, 8-6-2 WCHA (5th)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.23 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.09 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.8% (29 of 122)
Penalty Kill: 85.8% (97 of 113)
Key Players: Sophomore F Jason Gregoire (12-7-19), Senior F Chris VandeVelde (6-12-18), Freshman F Danny Kristo (6-11-17), Junior F Evan Trupp (5-13-18), Junior D Jake Marto (3-6-9), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (11-5-3, 2.13 GAA, .912 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: October 17, 2009 (Grand Forks, ND). Fighting Sioux defenseman Jake Marto tied the score late in the third period and blocked a shot with under two minutes to play as North Dakota salvaged a tie with the visiting Gophers. UND dominated Minnesota 4-0 in Friday’s opener.

Last meeting at Mariucci Arena: February 2, 2008. The two teams battled to a 1-1 tie and combined for 164 penalty minutes in the series finale. North Dakota took the opener 2-1 in overtime on Evan Trupp’s spectacular game winner.

Most important meeting: March 24, 1979 (Detroit, MI). North Dakota and Minnesota met to decide the national championship, and the Gophers prevailed, 4-3.

All-time: Minnesota leads the all-time series, 130-125-13 (.509), including a 70-51-5 (.575) mark in games played in Minneapolis.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has had the better of the play lately, going 10-2-2 in the past four seasons (outscoring the Gophers 47-27 in that stretch and losing both games by one goal). Minnesota has not lost this season when leading after two periods of play (8-0-0). UND is unbeaten in its last five games at Mariucci Arena (4-0-1). After this weekend’s home series against the Fighting Sioux, the Gophers have only four home games remaining among their twelve WCHA contests.

The Prediction

Three will be the magic number this weekend. If North Dakota can hang three or more goals on the Gophers, they will win. Saturday’s game will be a battle until the final horn (and possibly longer), and UND could take three points on the weekend, but I’ll call it a split. UND 4-2, UMN 3-2.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.