Men’s Hockey – Page 41 – Sioux Sports Talk

Inside the WCHA: 2010-11 Midseason Report

At the beginning of the season, I gave you my predicted order of finish in the WCHA:

1. North Dakota
2. St. Cloud State
3. Minnesota-Duluth
4. Denver
5. Wisconsin
6. Minnesota
7. Colorado College
8. Bemidji State
9. Nebraska-Omaha
10. MSU-Mankato
11. Alaska-Anchorage
12. Michigan Tech

And here’s how the race stacks up heading into this weekend’s action:

WCHA 2010-11 Current Standings

Team	Record	Points
North Dakota	11-3-0	22
Denver	9-3-2	20
Minnesota-Duluth	9-3-2	20
Nebraska-Omaha	9-4-1	19
Colorado College	8-6-0	16
Minnesota	6-6-2	14
Wisconsin	6-6-2	14
Alaska-Anchorage	4-8-2	10
MSU-Mankato	4-8-2	10
Bemidji State	4-9-1	9
St. Cloud State	3-8-1	7
Michigan Tech	1-10-1	3

It is worth noting that the top ten teams all have 14 games to play, while the bottom two (St. Cloud State and Michigan Tech) have 16 games remaining. Of the top four teams contending for the MacNaughton Cup, North Dakota and Minnesota-Duluth have the most manageable schedules, while Denver’s remaining road games, in particular, are difficult and Nebraska-Omaha’s second half slate is downright brutal.

So far, the biggest surprises to me have been Nebraska-Omaha (positive) and St. Cloud State (negative). Alaska-Anchorage has overachieved so far, but they’ll have an uphill climb if they hope to stay out of the bottom three spots in the league.

In my season preview, I said this about picking Dean Blais’ UNO squad to end up in 9th:

Nebraska-Omaha: It’s tough to pick a Dean Blais team to finish this low, but I think they’re a year away from really contending.

After a blazing hot start (8-1-1), the Mavs went 4-6-0 to end 2010. As I mentioned earlier, they have the toughest second half schedule in the league and they will have to battle to secure home ice for the WCHA playoffs.

On the other end of the spectrum is a struggling team that I expect will continue to struggle. Coming into the season, St. Cloud State was a loaded team without many question marks. Heading into 2011, the Huskies are a bunch of question marks with no opportunity to reload.

SCSU’s only first-half highlight, wins over Cornell and Miami to claim the Florida College Classic championship, was marred by on off-ice incident that resulted in Chris Hepp, Tony Mosey, and Bryce Johnson leaving the team at semester break.

We will have a very interesting race for the league title. Take a look at the remaining opponents for the top seven teams:

North Dakota Home: UMN (2), UNO (2), UAA (2), BSU (2);
Road: CC (2), SCSU (2), MTU (2)
Denver Home: UAA (2), MTU (2), SCSU (2), CC (1);
Road: MSUM (2), UMN (2), UNO (2), CC (1)
Minnesota-Duluth Home: UW (2), UMN (2), SCSU (2), UNO (2);
Road: MTU (2), MSUM (2), CC (2)
Nebraska-Omaha Home: BSU (2), SCSU (2), UW (2), DU (2);
Road: UND (2), UAA (2), UMD (2)
Colorado College Home: UND (2), MSUM (2), UMD (2), DU (1);
Road: UAA (2), BSU (2), UW (2), DU (1)
Minnesota Home: UAA (2), DU (2), MTU (2);
Road: UND (2), UMD (2), UW (2) BSU (2)
Wisconsin Home: MSUM (2), UMN (2), CC (2);
Road: UMD (2), MTU (2), UNO (2), SCSU (2)

If I had to predict how the race for home ice would play out, I would put them in this order:

1. North Dakota
2. Minnesota-Duluth
3. Denver
4. Colorado College
5. Nebraska-Omaha
6. Wisconsin

Due to the new WCHA Final Five format (# 3 vs. # 6 and # 4 vs. # 5 on Thursday), only the top two teams remaining after the first round series have been played will receive byes into Friday’s semifinal games.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments and suggestions.

UND at Minnesota-Duluth: Hall of Fame Game Preview

Minnesota Vikings football on a Tuesday night and Sioux hockey on Thursday. This is really messing up my weekly rhythm.

As such, I don’t have a preview full of facts, figures, and statistics. If you’d like to look back at the UND/Duluth series history and matchup through the years, click here.

This preview will focus on just one thing: how crucial this game is to the Pairwise standings at the end of the year. The two teams will not meet again in the regular season but could possibly play at the WCHA Final Five in St. Paul. If Duluth can “hold serve” in their new arena, they will have a decided advantage going forward.

Both teams are missing key players. For North Dakota, top-line forwards Jason Gregoire and Brett Hextall will miss their fifth straight game due to injury, while defenseman Derek Forbort and forward Brock Nelson represent the United States at the World Junior Championships. Duluth’s top two point-scoring defensemen, Dylan Olsen and Justin Faulk, are also in Buffalo, New York wth Team USA.

The Prediction:
It’s always difficult to predict how teams will come out after a holiday break, and the edge is certainly with the Bulldogs. North Dakota spoiled Bemidji’s arena opener earlier this season, and I have a feeling that they’ll do it again. UND 4, UMD 3.

A first look at rankings

When to look at PWR

Though January is the traditional time to start really looking at rankings, UND only has one meaningful game remaining before the new year, so now seems a fine time for a sneak preview.

First, I do want to draw attention to my essay from last year, When to start looking at PWR? Inspired by some humorously early bracketology discussions last Fall, it analyzes when the PWR rankings become useful by looking at two criteria:

How stable is it week-to-week? If a #1 ranked team is likely to become a #15 ranked team next weekend after a loss or two, then it’s a practically useless measure.
How good a predictor is the current PWR of the final PWR? The real PWR is only calculated once, once all the games have been played and it’s time to seed the tournament. We’re really only interested in “if the season ended today” PWR calculations because we think they may have some predictive value of those final PWRs.

In short, PWR is wildly unstable until January and doesn’t become a very good predictor of end-of-season PWR until March.

PWR prediction

So, rather than look at PWR itself (what the tournament seeds would be if the season ended today), I’m going to fire up the PWR Predictor and show you what PWR could be at the end of the regular season, based on UND’s performance between now and then.

We knew it intuitively based on the record, but wow is UND in a different place from previous years (potential outcomes as of Feb. 10, 2010 and as of Jan. 29, 2009).

UND seems to already have a pretty solid lock on being a TUC — winning 7 of the remaining 17 almost guarantees it.

Winning just 7 would likely leave UND on the precipice of an at-large bid, while winning 8 would slide the Sioux more comfortably into the tweens.

Do keep in mind how flat some of those curves are, so it’s much more likely for UND to fall into a “tail” — e.g. while the “win 7” curve is centered around #10, it’s only half as likely to be #14 or a quarter as likely to be #16.

Bonus coverage — what’s up with Yale?

There’s been a lot of chatter about whether Yale’s #1 ranking and poll spot is deserved, given the quality of competition they’ve played. One of the questions being asked is how good a job the rankings do at incorporating strength-of-schedule for teams with exceptional win-loss records. The PWR Predictor can help with a question like this by measuring the stability of Yale’s lofty perch atop the rankings. If Yale loses a handful of games and plummets to a more mortal win-loss record, what will happen to their PWR?

It’s a little hard to read because it’s so dense over there near the #1 ranking. Basically, Yale would have to win fewer than 7 of their remaining 17 games to be in likely danger of not being a TUC. With as few as 10 wins they seem almost a lock for a top 4 seed.

Bottom-line: From a PWR perspective, Yale is for real.

Resources

I don’t expect to have anything new to say about PWR for at least a month or two, but data hounds may want to keep an eye on things themselves:

Weekend Preview: North Dakota at MSU-Mankato

It’s been a different sort of first half for North Dakota. In head coach Dave Hakstol‘s first six seasons, UND has gone into the Christmas break with an average of 6.2 WCHA losses. Heading into Mankato this weekend (their last conference action until January), the Fighting Sioux sport a 9-3-0 league record.

It’s also worth noting that two of those three conference losses were an overtime loss against Duluth and a last-second heartbreaking defeat in Omaha.

In non-conference action, the Green and White hit a two-game skid at Maine but performed well otherwise and have an even 2-2-2 mark against Alaska-Anchorage, Alaska, Maine, and Notre Dame. The “non-conference” game at Duluth to open the Bulldogs’ new arena and a home series against Robert Morris will be important second-half contests if UND has designs on a high seed in the NCAA tournament.

Minnesota-State Mankato has come on lately, winning its last four games (@UMass-Lowell, vs. Minnesota). The Mavs have been road warriors, playing eight consecutive games away from Alltel Center. Before last weekend’s series against the Gophers, the Landcows’ last home game was October 23rd.

It’s been feast or famine in the goal scoring department for Jutting’s squad. In six victories, MSU-M has averaged 4.0 goals per game. In six defeats, the Mavericks have scored an average of 1.3 goals.

Mankato has only one player with more than four goals on the season (Justin Jokinen, 6) while North Dakota’s top lamp-lighters are Matt Frattin (15) and Corban Knight (9).

In injury news, Sioux forwards Brett Hextall and Jason Gregoire will be out of the lineup once again. Look for senior forward Brett Davidson to play up front this weekend after a strong Saturday night against St. Cloud State.

MSU-Mankato Team Profile

Head Coach: Troy Jutting (11th season at MSUM, 164-188-51, .470)
This Season: 6-6-4, 4-6-2 WCHA (t-6th)
Last Season: 16-20-3, 9-17-2 WCHA (t-8th)

PairWise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.81 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.25 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 14.1% (11 of 78)
Penalty Kill: 81.2% (69 of 85)

Key Players: Freshman F Chase Grant (4-6-10), Junior F Michael Dorr (4-6-10), Senior F Andrew Sackrison (3-5-8), Senior D Kurt Davis (4-9-13), Senior F Ben Youds (2-2-4), Sophomore G Phil Cook (5-6-2, 3.03 GAA, .913 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 166-89-26, .637)
This Season: 11-5-2, 9-3-0 WCHA (2nd)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)

PairWise Ranking: #4
National Rankings: #5/#5

Team Offense: 3.39 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.67 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.3% (17 of 93)
Penalty Kill: 85.9% (67 of 78)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (15-7-22), Junior F Jason Gregoire (6-7-13), Sophomore F Corban Knight (9-8-17), Senior F Evan Trupp (5-8-13), Senior D Chay Genoway (3-12-15), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-8-8), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (10-4-1, 2.18 GAA, .902 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 9, 2010 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota got two goals from Jason Gregoire for the second consecutive game and completed the sweep of the visiting Mavs, 3-2. The Fighting Sioux won Friday’s opener, 4-1.

Last Meeting in Mankato: October 18, 2008. North Dakota turned the special teams tables on Mankato by scoring three power play goals and adding a late shorthander for a 4-3 victory. MSU-M won Friday’s opener 5-1 on the strength of three shorthanded tallies.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 33-10-7 (.730), including a 12-4-4 (.700) record in games played in Mankato.

Last ten: North Dakota has a sparkling 9-1-0 (.900) record in the last ten contests, and has lost just once in the last 16 meetings (14-1-1).

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has allowed the first goal in 12 of 18 contests this year and has a record of 8-3-1 in those games. The Mavericks have killed off the last 13 opponent power play opportunities, while North Dakota was held without a power play marker in 11 chances last weekend against St. Cloud State. UND has not lost when leading after two periods this season (8-0-0). Sioux forward Matt Frattin is tied for the NCAA goal-scoring lead with 15.

The Prediction

If North Dakota were healthy, I would pick a sweep. If North Dakota were at home, I would pick a sweep. The Fighting Sioux are banged up and on the road, and I’m picking a sweep. These are the road games good teams need to win to become great teams. UND 4-3, 4-2.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. St. Cloud State

North Dakota has played by far the toughest schedule in the country to this point, battling five teams (two games each) in the top 13 in the pairwise rankings. Nebraska-Omaha, Minnesota-Duluth, Notre Dame, Denver, and Maine would all make the tournament (along with North Dakota) if the season ended today.

St. Cloud State has faced three opponents in the same category (Miami [OH], Minnesota, and Nebraska-Omaha), for a total of six games.

UND went 4-5-1 against top-tier opponents, losing one game in overtime and another in the final second of regulation. St. Cloud has a record of 1-3-2 against its toughest opponents.

Why, then, is North Dakota a top-ten team in the polls and in the pairwise, while St. Cloud is looking at a second-division WCHA finish?

The answer is in the rest of the schedule. The Fighting Sioux are 5-0-1 against Alaska, Alaska-Anchorage, Wisconsin, and Bemidji State, while the Huskies are a pedestrian 4-4-0 against RIT, Clarkson, Quinnipiac, and Alaska-Anchorage.

SCSU is currently in 7th place in the WCHA, but that’s a bit misleading since they’ve only played eight league games while more than half of the teams in the conference (and six of the seven teams tied or above in the standings) have played ten.

After this weekend, the two teams play one more WCHA series (UND at MSU-Mankato, SCSU vs. Colorado College) before the Christmas break, and both squads would like to pick up conference points this weekend to set themselves up for a second half run.

On the injury front, UND forward Brett Hextall will miss this weekend’s games with an undisclosed injury, while two other (unnamed) Sioux players are questionable for the series.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: Bob Motzko (6th season at SCSU, 110-81-26, .567)
This Season: 5-7-2, 3-4-1 WCHA (t-7th)
Last Season: 24-14-5 (NCAA West Regional finalist), 15-9-4 WCHA (3rd)

PairWise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.86 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.07 goal sallowed/game
Power Play: 17.0% (16 of 94)
Penalty Kill: 81.7% (49 of 60)

Key Players: Senior F Garrett Roe (2-8-10), Junior F Drew LeBlanc (5-12-17), Junior F Jared Festler (6-3-9), Freshman D Nick Jensen (2-7-9), Senior D Chris Hepp (1-2-3), Sophomore G Mike Lee (3-4-1, 3.27 GAA, .887 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 164-89-26, .634)
This Season: 9-5-2, 7-3-0 WCHA (3rd)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)

PairWise Ranking: # 7
National Rankings: # 7/# 7

Team Offense: 3.14 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.86 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.7% (17 of 82)
Penalty Kill: 84.7% (61 of 72)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (13-4-17), Junior F Jason Gregoire (6-7-13), Sophomore F Corban Knight (8-8-16), Senior F Evan Trupp (4-7-11), Senior D Chay Genoway (3-10-13), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-8-8), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (8-4-1, 2.29 GAA, .899 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 20, 2010 (St. Paul, MN). In the Final Five title game, SCSU won the opening minute 2-0 and the Fighting Sioux won the remaining 59 minutes by a score of 5-1. It was North Dakota’s third victory in three nights at the tournament.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: November 14, 2009. One night after St. Cloud junior forward Aaron Marvin met North Dakota senior defenseman Chay Genoway with a high elbow, the visiting Huskies posted a 3-2 victory over North Dakota. SCSU goaltender Dan Dunn made 46 saves and withstood a furious Sioux comeback after St. Cloud took an early 3-0 lead.

Most Important Meeting: There are two classic Final Five championship games between the schools:

2001: St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

2010: SCSU took a 2-0 lead less than a minute into the Final Five title game but couldn’t make it last, falling to North Dakota 5-3. UND became the second team in as many seasons to notch three victories at the WCHA postseason tournament.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 53-29-10 (.630), including a 27-12-5 (.670) mark on home ice and a record of 8-3-3 (.679) in games played in the new Ralph Engelstad Arena since it opened in 2001.

Last Ten: North Dakota holds a 6-3-1 (.650) edge in the last ten meetings between the two teams. UND and SCSU play four regular season games every year under the WCHA’s schedule partner arrangement.

Challenge Cup: The two schools shared the Challenge Cup last season, splitting both regular season series.

Game News and Notes

UND is 8-0-0 all-time when Mario Lamoureux scores a goal (so here’s hoping he doesn’t shadow box anybody). The junior forward has scored three goals in five career games against the Huskies. SCSU netminder Mike Lee is expected to start Friday’s opener despite being lit up in three games against North Dakota last season (0-3, 6.70 GAA, .835 SV%). Fighting Sioux head coach Dave Hakstol has 99 career WCHA victories to his credit.

The Prediction

This one hinges on the health in North Dakota’s locker room. If one of the (unnamed) players unable to go this weekend is who I believe he is, then we could be looking at a split. I was spot on with my three point prediction last weekend against the Fighting Irish, so we’ll try it again. The Fighting Sioux will have better success against goaltender Mike Lee on Friday than they will against his counterpart (Dan Dunn) on Saturday, so we’ll go with UND 5-2, 3-3 tie.

On a Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of SiouxSports.com, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Southgate Grill and Bar (a smoke-free venue). This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, view the Challenge Cup, and win fabulous door prizes. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

UND/SCSU fan social set for Saturday, December 4th

Please join us for the UND/SCSU pre-game social, an annual event which provides an opportunity for fans of the University of North Dakota and St. Cloud State University to gather, celebrate the great sport of hockey, and award the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup, a traveling trophy which is presented to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games between the schools.

This event will be held on Saturday, December 4th from 3:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. at Southgate Grill and Bar in Grand Forks. Southgate is smoke-free, and the event is free and open to the public (due to the venue, guests must be 21 years of age or older).

SiouxSports.com is the title sponsor for the event in Grand Forks, while the Center Ice Club (the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies) hosts the social in St. Cloud every year.

Fans of both teams enjoy the camaraderie at these social events and regularly comment that the connection between the two fan bases is among the best in college hockey.

Check back later this week for a preview of the weekend series.

Sponsors for this event include:

American Federal Bank
Barry’s Collectors Corner
Buffalo Wild Wings
Crosstown Lounge
Dakota Textbook
Daydreams Specialties
Domino’s Pizza
Fargo Force
Grizzly’s
Happy Joe’s Pizza
Hickey Designs
Nature’s Country Store
Ralph Engelstad Arena
Red Pepper
SiouxPride.com
Southgate Grill and Bar
University of North Dakota Bookstore
Vaaler Insurance

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Notre Dame

Last weekend, North Dakota played Nebraska-Omaha, a team in its first WCHA season after 13 years in the CCHA. This weekend, a former WCHA team rolls into town in first place in the CCHA.

Notre Dame was a member of the WCHA from 1971-1981, posting three winning seasons in ten campaigns. The Fighting Irish have had more success lately, winning the CCHA league title twice in the past four seasons.

The two teams figure to make the NCAA field of 16, and this weekend’s games are critically important for pairwise comparisons and seeding in the tournament.

North Dakota has an edge in experience over the visiting Golden Domers, boasting thirteen upperclassmen to Notre Dame’s eight. It will be interesting to see how the Fighting Irish respond if North Dakota takes an early lead in either game.

Notre Dame Team Profile

Head Coach: Jeff Jackson (6th season at Notre Dame, 125-68-23, .632)
This Season: 9-3-1, 7-2-1-1 CCHA (1st)
Last Season: 13-17-8, 9-12-7-2 CCHA (9th)

Pairwise Ranking: #4
National Rankings: #11/#11

Team Offense: 3.77 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.54 goal sallowed/game
Power Play: 14.3% (10 of 70)
Penalty Kill:89.8 % (53 of 59)

Key Players: Freshman F T.J. Tynan (7-9-16), Senior F Ben Ryan (2-14-16), Senior F Ryan Genteel (1-15-16), Senior D Joe Lavin (3-4-7), Junior D Sean Lorenz (2-3-5), Sophomore G Mike Johnson (7-2-1, 2.30 GAA, .915 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 163-89-25, .634)
This Season: 8-5-1, 7-3-0 WCHA (3rd)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)

Pairwise Ranking: #9
National Rankings: #9/#10

Team Offense: 3.14 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.86 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.1% (15 of 68)
Penalty Kill: 84.4% (54 of 64)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (12-3-15), Junior F Jason Gregoire (4-6-10), Sophomore F Corban Knight (7-7-14), Senior F Evan Trupp (3-7-10), Senior D Chay Genoway (2-9-11), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (7-4-0, 2.26 GAA, .895 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 3, 2010 (Hoffman Estates, IL). The Fighting Sioux and Fighting Irish battled to a 3-3 tie at Notre Dame’s Shillelagh Tournament. The homestanding Irish won a shootout to determine the winner of the tournament.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: January 3, 1999. Notre Dame captured the second game 4-3 after UND won the opener 8-1. The series was played at the old Ralph Engelstad Arena.

Last Ten: North Dakota has a 7-1-2 (.800) record over the past ten games.

Most Important Meeting: March 15, 1980. In WCHA playoff action, the Fighting Sioux dispatched with Notre Dame with a 7-4 victory after winning the opener 10-4. UND would go on to win its third national championship two weeks later.

All-time Series: Notre Dame leads the all-time series 16-15-2 (.515). The Fighting Irish won 15 of the first 20 meetings between the two teams, but UND has almost evened the ledger with a 10-1-2 mark over the past thirteen games.

Game News and Notes

UND sophomore net minder Aaron Dell leads all WCHA goaltenders with a 1.91 goals-against average in league play. Notre Dame has never played a game at the new Ralph Engelstad Arena. 16 players on the current Sioux roster played against Notre Dame last year. The Fighting Irish appeared in the national championship game in 2008, falling 4-1 to Boston College. North Dakota senior forward Matt Frattin has scored 22 goals in his last 26 games.

The Prediction

This series feels like a split, but the last-second loss at Omaha last weekend is not sitting well with Hakstol’s crew, and the Fighting Irish will be happy to take a point. North Dakota 5-2, 2-2 tie.

Weekend Preview: UND at Nebraska-Omaha

A new rivalry against a familiar head coach. A new league member with designs on the MacNaughton Cup.

UNO is new to the WCHA, but the Mavs have been running over teams so far, outscoring league opponents Minnesota, Mankato, and St. Cloud 26-13 and posting a near-flawless 5-0-1 record in conference play. It is also worth noting that only the Mavs vs. Mavs series against MSU-Mankato was a home series for Dean Blais’ squad.

Nebraska-Omaha is leading the conference in almost everything: scoring offense, scoring defense, power play, penalty kill, and penalty minutes. It will be interesting to see (check that; hear, since the games aren’t televised anywhere) which style of game and rivalry develops between these first-time opponents.

Against most teams, North Dakota would like to play five-on-five, roll four lines, and use depth as an advantage. UNO may be the one team in the league who can survive and thrive in that type of game.

Dave Hakstol needs two wins this weekend to reach 100 WCHA victories for his career, but his counterpart on the other bench rarely loses at home, dropping just three contests at Qwest Center in two seasons as head coach of the Mavericks.

Nebraska-Omaha Team Profile

Head Coach: Dean Blais (2nd season at UNO, 28-17-7, .606)
This Season: 8-1-1, 5-0-1 WCHA (t-3rd)
National Rankings: #4/#4
Last Season: 20-16-6, 13-12-3 CCHA (6th)

Team Offense: 4.40 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.40 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 24.5% (12 of 49)
Penalty Kill: 88.5% (46 of 52)

Key Players: Senior F Rich Purslow (4-10-14), Senior F Matt Ambroz (7-4-11), Freshman F Matt White (6-5-11), Senior D Eric Olimb (0-8-8), Sophomore D Bryce Aneloski (1-4-5), Junior G John Faulkner (8-1-1, 2.22 GAA, .924 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 162-88-25, .635)
This Season: 7-4-1, 6-2-0 WCHA (2nd)
National Rankings: #8/#7
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)

Team Offense: 3.17 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.83 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 24.1% (14 of 58)
Penalty Kill: 82.8% (48 of 58)

Key Players: Junior F Jason Gregoire (4-6-10), Sophomore F Corban Knight (7-6-13), Senior F Evan Trupp (3-6-9), Senior F Matt Frattin (10-2-12), Senior D Chay Genoway (1-8-9), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (6-3-0, 2.38 GAA, .888 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

This is the first-ever meeting between the two teams, so tonight’s opener qualifies as the most important meeting between the two teams.

Game News and Notes

Nebraska-Omaha is the only unbeaten team in WCHA action. Sioux senior forward Matt Frattin has 20 goals in his last 24 games. Under Dean Blais, the Mavs have only lost three times in 25 home contests (20-3-2). UND senior defenseman Chay Genoway needs one point to join the Century Club for his career. Only eight other Sioux blue liners have ever eclipsed 100 career points. (Can you name them?)

The Prediction

I have a feeling that tonight’s opener will be wide open and the teams will tighten up in Saturday’s rematch. The first game feels like a “4-3 either way” type of contest, and I’ll give the nod to the homestanding Mavericks, with North Dakota taking the rematch. UNO 4-3. UND 2-1.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. If you’d like, post your guesses for the eight Sioux defensemen with 100 career points.

Weekend Preview: UND at Wisconsin

Four minutes at Ford Field. That’s how long it took for Wisconsin’s championship dream to end last season. Boston College held a tenuous 1-0 after two periods in the NCAA title game, and the teams seemed poised to play a classic final twenty minutes.

The Eagles put all that to rest with two goals early in period three and added two more, scoring four times on eight shots in the final frame to rout UW 5-0.

For Mike Eaves and the Badgers, it was another off-season filled with early departures (forward Derek Stepan and defensemen Ryan McDonagh, Brendan Smith, and Cody Goloubef). Stepan scored over 50 points last season (12-42-54), while the three blue liners potted 22 goals and added 62 helpers. In addition, Wisconsin graduated seven forwards after last season’s championship run.

In short, Bucky returns only one double digit goal scorer (Jordy Murray) from last year’s squad; by comparison, North Dakota brought back five (Jason Gregoire, Danny Kristo, Brett Hextall, Brad Malone, and Matt Frattin).

For Wisconsin, two young forwards have added some unexpected scoring. Freshman Mark Zengerle has 16 points this season (3 goals, 13 assists), while sophomore Craig Smith has already notched five goals and assisted on eight others. In the early going, the Badgers have also had excellent goaltending from Scott Gudmandson and find themselves tied for second in the WCHA.

On the North Dakota side, Dave Hakstol avoided the early departure bug but has three players sidelined for this weekend’s action. Two key defensemen, Derek Forbort and Andrew MacWilliam, are still battling illness, while forward Carter Rowney has not played since taking a high elbow against Denver. The Fighting Sioux will roll out the same lineup for the second consecutive weekend, with Joe Gleason and Dillon Simpson manning the blue line for the Green and White.

Wisconsin Team Profile

Head Coach: Mike Eaves (9th season at UW, 177-124-40, .578)
This Season: 6-2-2 Overall, 3-1-2 WCHA (t-2nd)
National Rankings: #13/#14
Last Season: 28-11-4 overall (NCAA national runner-up), 17-8-3 WCHA (2nd)

Team Offense: 4.30 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.80 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 30.9% (17 of 55)
Penalty Kill: 82.7% (43 of 52)

Key Players: Freshman F Mark Zengerle (3-13-16), Sophomore F Craig Smith (5-8-13), Junior F Jordy Murray (8-2-10), Junior D Jake Gardiner (2-7-9), Sophomore D Justin Schultz (4-8-12), Senior G Scott Gudmandson (3-2-1, 1.98 GAA, .929 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 160-88-25, .632)
This Season: 5-4-1, 4-2-0 WCHA (t-2nd)
National Rankings: #10/#10
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)

Team Offense: 3.30 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.20 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 25.0% (12 of 48)
Penalty Kill: 82.0% (41 of 50)

Key Players: Junior F Jason Gregoire (3-5-8), Sophomore F Corban Knight (5-6-11), Senior F Evan Trupp (3-5-8), Senior F Matt Frattin (8-2-10), Senior D Chay Genoway (1-5-6), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (4-3-0, 2.78 GAA, .877 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 12, 2009 (Grand Forks, ND). Wisconsin scored three power play goals and Scott Gudmandson stopped 31 shots as the visiting Badgers outlasted North Dakota 4-3. The two teams skated to a 3-3- tie in Friday’s opener.

Last Meeting in Madison: March 7, 2009. One night after clinching the MacNaughton Cup with a victory over Bucky, the Fighting Sioux allowed Derek Stepan to score two shorthanded goals on the same power play. Wisconsin took the series finale, 4-1.

Last Ten: The Badgers have had slightly the better of it in recent history, going 5-4-1 (.550) over the last ten tilts.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1982. A 2-2 tie after two periods turns into a 5-2 Sioux victory, as Phil Sykes nets a hat trick and leads UND to its fourth National Championship.

All-time Series: Wisconsin leads the all-time series, 84-60-11 (.574), and holds a 44-25-3 (.632) edge in games played in Madison.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has not beaten Wisconsin since March 6, 2009. Wisconsin freshman forward Mark Zengerle is coming off a six-point weekend against Minnesota. The Sioux and Badgers are not scheduled to play again this season but could meet in the playoffs. Friday’s opener can be seen live on Fox College Sports Central and FSN Wisconsin.

The Prediction

North Dakota will take a victory away from this weekend’s series, but no more than that. The Fighting Sioux have been winning on Friday nights, but I have a feeling that UND won’t really settle in until Saturday. UW 4-2, UND 3-1.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Minnesota-Duluth

This weekend, we will find out if Duluth’s unbeaten record (6-0-2) is a product of weaker competition, a strong returning class, or a sign that the Bulldogs are making a run at the top of the WCHA.

The Bulldogs have racked up their impressive early season record against Lake Superior, Northern Michigan, Providence, Alaska-Anchorage, and Bemidji State. During that time, UMD is outscoring their opponents 34-17. By contrast, North Dakota has scored 27 goals and allowed 27 so far this season.

North Dakota is battling injuries (forward Carter Rowney), sickness (blueliners Andrew MacWilliam and Derek Forbort), and a suspension (forward Brad Malone). Joe Gleason and Dillon Simpson will fill on on defense, while Brett Bruneteau and Mike Cichy will see time up front. Defenseman Ryan Hill will be the only healthy scratch on Friday night.

Special teams will be in focus this weekend, as Duluth comes into this weekend clipping along at almost 30% on the power play.

Minnesota-Duluth Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Sandelin (11th season at UMD, 172-190-48, .478)
This Season: 6-0-2 overall, 4-0-0 WCHA (1st)
National Rankings: #2/#2
Last Season: 22-17-1 overall, 16-11-1 WCHA (t-4th)

Team Offense: 4.25 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.12 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 29.3% (12 of 41)
Penalty Kill: 83.8% (31 of 37)

Key Players: Junior F Jack Connolly (3-9-12), Senior F Justin Fontaine (4-8-12), Junior F Mike Connolly (6-7-13), Sophomore D Dylan Olsen (1-5-6), Senior G Kenny Reiter (3-0-2, 2.71 GAA, .890 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 159-87-25, .633)
This Season: 4-3-1, 3-1-0 WCHA (t-2nd)
National Rankings: #9/#9
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)

Team Offense: 3.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.38 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.7% (9 of 38)
Penalty Kill: 80.0% (32 of 40)

Key Players: Junior F Jason Gregoire (3-4-7), Sophomore F Corban Knight (4-6-10), Senior F Evan Trupp (1-4-5), Senior F Matt Frattin (7-2-9), Senior D Chay Genoway (1-2-3), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-5-5), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (3-2-0, 2.91 GAA, .874 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 18, 2010 (St. Paul, MN). North Dakota blanked the Bulldogs 2-0 to advance to Friday’s semifinals in the WCHA Final Five. Duluth had a goal waived off (high stick), and the Fighting Sioux scored shorthanded minutes later to take a 1-0 lead in the third period. North Dakota went on to win the Final Five, becoming just the second team to win three games at the weekend event (Duluth was the first).

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: February 20, 2010. Mario Lamoureux scored two goals for the homestanding Green and White after serving a one-game suspension for (sort of) fighting St. Cloud’s Aaron Marvin the previous weekend. North Dakota won 5-1 to complete the weekend sweep after downing UMD 5-2 in Friday’s opener.

Most Important Meeting: March 22, 1984 (Lake Placid, NY) Minnesota-Duluth and North Dakota met in the national semifinal game, with the Bulldogs defeating the Fighting Sioux 2-1 in overtime to advance to the championship. UND went on to defeat Michigan State 6-5 (OT) for third place, while Duluth fell to Bowling Green 5-4 in four overtimes, the longest championship game ever played.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 129-70-8 (.643), including a 74-30-2 (.708) record in games played in Grand Forks

Last Ten: North Dakota is 5-2-3 (.650) in the last ten games between the teams. Only two of the past ten contests have been held in Grand Forks (six games in Duluth and two games in St. Paul).

Game News and Notes

UND is 11-1-1 in its last 13 home meetings against the Bulldogs. Duluth will host North Dakota to open the brand new AMSOIL Arena on Thursday, December 30th. The Hall of Fame Game will count as a non-conference game even though UND and UMD are both members of the WCHA. Jason Gregoire leads all active North Dakota players with eight points (six goals, two assists) in eight career games against the Bulldogs. The two Connollys (Mike and Jack) and Justin Fontaine form Duluth’s top line and are the top three scorers in the WCHA.

The Prediction

I really feel like this weekend has split written all over it, but if North Dakota can’t score consistently 5 on 5, Duluth could have the better of it. With all of the lineup changes on the Sioux bench, I’m leaning toward the Bulldogs tonight and a close UND victory tomorrow. Minnesota-Duluth 4-1, North Dakota 3-2.