Author: Dave Berger

WCHA 2011-12 Predictions Part 1: The Bottom Six

Well, here it is.  My annual crack at predicting the order of finish in the WCHA.  Last season, I had my hits and misses, with Nebraska-Omaha (up six spots from my prediction), Alaska-Anchorage (up three spots), and St. Cloud State (down seven spots) the three teams that surprised me the most.

Here’s a reminder of how the teams finished last season:

WCHA 2010-11 Final Standings

Team Record Points
North Dakota 21-6-1 43
Denver 17-8-3 37
Nebraska-Omaha 17-9-2 36
Minnesota-Duluth 15-8-5 35
Minnesota 13-10-5 31
Colorado College 13-13-2 28
Wisconsin 12-13-2 27
Alaska-Anchorage 12-14-2 26
St. Cloud State 11-13-4 26
Bemidji State 8-15-5 21
MSU-Mankato 8-16-4 20
Michigan Tech 2-24-2 6

And here’s how I see the bottom six spots shaping up in the league this year…

#12 Minnesota State University – Mankato Mavericks

Head Coach: Troy Jutting

2010-11 Record: 14-18-6 overall, 8-16-4 WCHA, (11th)

Key returning players: Sr. F Michael Dorr (12-14-26), Jr. F Eriah Hayes (11-11—22), So. F Chase Grant (8-12—20), Jr. F Eli Zuck (5-13—18), Sr. F Justin Jokinen (9-8—17), Jr. D Tyler Elbrecht (1-7—8), Jr. G Phil Cook (10-13-4, 3.01, .903)

Key losses: F Rylan Galiardi, F Andy Sackrison, D Kurt Davis, D Ben Youds, D Channing Boe

2011-12 season outlook: The Mavs lost eight conference games last season by one goal.  If they can get consistent goaltending from Phil Cook and their underclassmen can overachieve, they could climb out of the WCHA cellar.

#11 Michigan Tech University Huskies

Head Coach: Mel Pearson

2010-11 Record: 4-30-4 overall, 2-24-2 WCHA, (12th)

Key returning players: So. F Milos Gordic (15-6—21), So. F Ryan Furne (12-9—21), So. F Jacob Johnstone (4-15—19), Jr. D Steven Seigo (4-13—17), Sr. F Brett Olson (4-6—10), So. D Dan Sova (0-9—9), Jr. G Kevin Genoe (3-17-2, 4.03, .883)

Key losses: F Bennett Royer, D Deron Cousens

2011-12 season outlook: With a new coach in Houghton, there is reason for optimism.  Michigan Tech’s schedule is front-loaded with home games, so the Huskies should find some success early.  MTU could climb to as high as 8th or 9th, but they’re probably a year away from double digit wins.

#10 Bemidji State University Beavers

Head Coach: Tom Serratore

2010-11 Record: 15-18-5 overall, 8-15-5, (10th)

Key returning players: Jr. F Jordan George (17-19—36), Sr. D Brad Hunt (3-18—21), Sr. F Shea Walters (1-13—14), Sr. F Jamie MacQueen (7-4—11), Sr. G Dan Bakala (14-13-4, 2.47, .919)

Key losses: F Matt Read, F Ian Lowe, D Ryan Adams

2011-12 season outlook: I doubt the Beavers will be able to pick up five wins against Omaha again this season, so they’ll have to perform better against St. Cloud State, Michigan Tech, Alaska-Anchorage, and MSU-Mankato (4-5-1 last year) if they hope to contend for home ice.  It seems like so long ago that Bemidji State was in the Frozen Four, and it will be a while before they’re back.

#9 St. Cloud State University Huskies

Head Coach: Bob Motzko

2010-11 Record: 15-18-5 overall, 11-13-4 WCHA, (T-8th)

Key returning players: Sr. F Drew LeBlanc (13-26—39), So. F Cam Reid (8-21—29), Sr. F Jared Festler (12-12—24), So. D Nick Jensen (5-18—23), Jr. F David Eddy (9-8—17), Jr. F Ben Hanowski (13-7—20), Jr. G Mike Lee (12-14-4, 2.75, .910)

Key losses: F Garrett Roe, F Aaron Marvin, D Brett Barta, D Oliver Lauridsen, G Dan Dunn

2011-12 season outlook: SCSU qualifies as last season’s biggest disappointment.  I had them picked to finish second in the league and they finished tied for eighth. They’ll probably surprise me again and finish in third or fourth place this year, but I’ll slot them in ninth and let them overachieve.

#8 University of Alaska-Anchorage Seawolves

Head Coach: Dave Shyiak

2010-11 Record: 16-18-3 overall, 12-14-2 WCHA, (T-8th)

Key returning players: So. F Jordan Kwas (4-20—24), So. F Matt Bailey (10-10—20), Jr. F Mitch Bruijsten (9-8—17), Sr. F/D Curtis Leinweber (4-6—10), So. F Brett Cameron (4-8—12), Sr. F Jade Portwood (2-9—11)

Key losses: F Tommy Grant, F Sean Wiles, D Luka (“he lives on the second floor…”) Vidmar

2011-12 season outlook: Coming into this season, the Seawolves are where some of this season’s top teams hope to be a year from now: a team that played as many as ten freshmen each night throughout the season, found some success late (sweeping Minnesota in the first round of the WCHA playoffs), and is a better team because of it.  UAA graduated only five players and has only three seniors on this year’s roster, so the present and the future look bright for Dave Shyiak’s squad.  If Alaska-Anchorage can hold serve at home (9-5-3 last season), they could contend for home ice this year.

#7 University of Wisconsin Badgers

Head Coach: Mike Eaves

2010-11 Record: 21-16-4 overall, 12-13-3 WCHA, (7th)

Key returning players: Jr. D Justin Schultz (18-29—47), So. F Mark Zengerle (5-31—36), So. F Michael Mersch (8-11—19), So. F Tyler Barnes (5-12—17), Jr. F Derek Lee (3-14—17), Jr. D John Ramage (1-10—11), So. D Frankie Simonelli (2-9—11).

Key losses: Everyone else.  F Craig Smith, F Jordy Murray, and D Jake Gardiner left early; F Podge Turnbull, F Patrick Johnson, D Craig Johnson, and G Scott Gudmandson graduated.

2010-11 season outlook: The Badgers are the only team in the league without a returning goaltender, and freshman Joel Rumpel looks to have the early edge over fellow rookie netminder Landon Peterson.  With just one senior on this year’s roster, the Badgers have a bright future but they will take their lumps this year, particularly on the road.

As you can see, I haven’t got the bottom six changing all that much, other than Mankato and Michigan Tech swapping places at the bottom.  For an in-depth look at my predictions for the top six teams in the WCHA, please click here.

Friday Night Rewind: UND vs. Maine

I expected UND to struggle last night, and they did. There was too much space in front of North Dakota’s net, and senior goaltender Brad Eidsness made 25 of 26 saves over the first two periods to keep the Fighting Sioux in the game.

Splitting UND’s top three forwards across two lines proved effective. I particularly like Mark MacMillan with Danny Kristo and Corban Knight and expect to see that forward group quite a bit going forward. In my opinion, Brock Nelson is more effective centering the second line.

The fourth Sioux forward line (Brendan O’Donnell, Stephane Pattyn, and Connor Gaarder) did not see the ice very much, as Hakstol wasn’t rolling all four lines as often as he’d like to. On the back end, I like Andrew MacWilliam and Nick Mattson together, as the two complement each other’s skill sets.

North Dakota’s Malcolm Parks, whose penalty resulted in a power play goal for the visiting Black Bears, tied it up less than three minutes later and played his best game as a Fighting Sioux.

UND survived two goal reviews – a Maine “no goal” held up under review and Parks’ goal was upheld by replay. Those won’t always go North Dakota’s way but they were key to the game last night.

The two Sioux penalties that I felt were unnecessary were the two interference calls in the offensive zone – 200 feet from the UND net. North Dakota needs to cut down on the needless infractions and play five on five hockey to be successful.

An overlooked area of the game – faceoffs – continues to be a bright spot for UND; particularly Corban Knight. His clean draw led directly to North Dakota’s second goal.

I was looking forward to seeing Joey Diamond (#39 for the Black Bears) and Ben Blood (#24 for the Fighting Sioux) go at it again this evening, but it is not to be. Diamond will be benched by his coaching staff after taking four penalties in the opener.

All credit to Maine – they played a great road game and could easily have been up by two goals if Brad Eidsness hadn’t been rock-solid between the pipes. Eidsness earned another start with his play last night.

North Dakota played a good final five minutes; they controlled the play with the lead and extended it with a third goal.

Last night’s Ralph Engelstad Arena band, Downtown Horns, energized the crowd before the game and between periods. The Fighting Sioux are now 8-1-1 when the nine-piece horn band play in the REA concourse. Check out the “black jerseys” of arena bands at facebook.com/downtownhorns.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Maine

It’s hard to find a Sioux fan who doesn’t have admiration and respect for the Maine Black Bears. There’s a certain affinity for other great hockey teams that survive and thrive in smaller markets and are the flagship programs for their state.

More specifically, the connection between North Dakota and Maine is well-documented. Former UND head coach Dean Blais is fondly remembered for his tribute to Shawn Walsh during Walsh’s cancer battle. I remember vividly the game played in Orono, Maine on Friday, October 13th, 2000, when the defending national champion Fighting Sioux took to the ice in matching “Walsh” jerseys and donated the game-worn uniforms to defray coach Walsh’s medical costs.

It was only fitting that when the late Shawn Walsh’s shamrock was retired and hoisted to the rafters at Alfond Arena in October 2004, North Dakota was once again on hand as the visiting team.

Turning the page to this weekend’s action, both squads are hungry to pick up key wins that will prove beneficial in the Pairwise Rankings. The Black Bears have had the better of the play lately, picking up two victories in Grand Forks in October 2006 on their way to Frozen Four and earning a home sweep in Orono last season (7-3, 4-2). North Dakota will look to return the favor this weekend.

One area of concern for the Fighting Sioux is the youth of the team. At this point in the season, UND does not have many players to count on for scoring and leadership. The other two problems with North Dakota’s inexperience – defensive zone coverage and lazy penalties – were exposed last Saturday night against Boston College. If those lapses and penalties continue, we could see the same scoreboard we witnessed at Maine last season, or worse. A veteran Sioux squad traveled to face the Black Bears in October 2010 and gave Maine 19 power plays, resulting in five power play goals.

Maine narrowly missed the NCAAs last season and hope to return to postseason play after a four year absence. That will be tougher this season because the Black Bears will be without two-time Hobey Baker finalist Gustav Nyquist, who gave up his final season of eligibility after leading Maine in scoring each of his three seasons (combined 50 goals and 94 assists in 113 games). Maine is also without its top two centers from last year’s team.

Maine Team Profile

Head Coach: Tim Whitehead (11th season at Maine, 217-139-43 .598)
National Ranking: #17/#17
This Season: 1-1-0 overall, 1-1-0 Hockey East
Last Season: 17-12-7 overall, 14-8-5 Hockey East (5th)
Team Offense: 3.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 12.5% (2 of 16)
Penalty Kill: 90.9% (10 of 11)
Key Players: Senior F Brian Flynn (1-4-5), Senior F Spencer Abbott (2-1-3), Junior F Joey Diamond (1-2-3), Senior D Will O’Neill (0-0-0), Junior D Mike Cornell (0-1-1), Sophomore G Dan Sullivan (1-0-0, 3.01 GAA, .889 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 188-94-27, .652)
National Ranking: #6/#6
This Season: 1-1-0, 0-0-0 WCHA
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 4.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.2% (2 of 9)
Penalty Kill: 88.9% (8 of 9)
Key Players: Junior F Corban Knight (2-1-3), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (2-1-3), Junior F Danny Kristo (0-3-3), Sophomore D Derek Forbort (1-1-2), Senior D Ben Blood (0-0-0), Junior G Aaron Dell (1-1-0, 4.94 GAA, .800 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 23, 2010 (Orono, ME). The Black Bears chose to start freshman goaltender Dan Sullivan in the second game of the series and he responded, stopping 23 of 25 North Dakota shots in earning a 4-2 victory and a weekend sweep for his squad. Maine won the opener, 7-3.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: October 21, 2006. Maine sophomore goaltender Ben Bishop held UND scoreless for almost 58 minutes and the Black Bears weathered a barrage of North Dakota 5-on-3 power plays as the visiting squad won 3-1 to complete the weekend sweep. Bishop made 48 of 50 saves on the weekend.

Most Important Meeting: April 6, 2000 (Providence, RI). The Fighting Sioux scored twice in the second period and Karl Goehring stopped all 30 shots he faces as UND advanced to the national title game with a 2-0 victory over Maine. Two nights later, the Green and White would claim their seventh national championship.

Last Ten: UND is 4-5-1 (.450) in the last ten meetings between the teams. Maine has won the last four contests by a combined score of 20-8.

All-time Series: North Dakota leads the all-time series 11-8-1 (.575), including a 6-3-0 (.667) edge in games played in Orono.

Game News and Notes:

Only four current Fighting Sioux players (Ben Blood, Corban Knight, Danny Kristo, Derek Rodwell) have ever scored against Maine. Each of the four collected a single point in last season’s weekend series. The Black Bears return 19 players who saw action last season; the Fighting Sioux have 14 players back. With six more saves, Brad Eidsness would become the tenth goalie in UND hockey history to record 2,000 career stops.

The Prediction

North Dakota needs to improve in all major areas to compete for points this weekend. I feel like UND has a better shot at a win on Saturday night, with a rough showing Friday. Maine 4-2, 3-3 tie.

Icebreaker Preview: UND vs. Air Force

The last time North Dakota had as many as ten freshmen on the roster was 2005-2006, when the Sioux brought in 13 rookies. That group included Taylor Chorney, Ryan Duncan, Brian Lee, T.J. Oshie, and Jonathan Toews.

It remains to be seen whether this year’s crop of ten freshmen will find a similar level of success. UND’s first year players will need to play valuable minutes in key situations for the Fighting Sioux to compete.

With freshmen Rocco Grimaldi (lower body injury) and Colten St. Clair (NCAA clearinghouse issues) unavailable, the top forward line is expected to be Corban Knight centering Brock Nelson and Danny Kristo. Those three combined for 30 goals and 63 assists in 120 games last year. After those three forwards, however, the returning scoring is fairly thin. The only other returning forward to register more than ten points last season is senior captain Mario Lamoureux (3-14-17).

North Dakota’s strength this season will be in net and on defense. Junior goaltender Aaron Dell (30-7-2, 1.79 GAA, .924 SV%, 6 shutouts last season) returns as one of the top netminders in the country, and Brad Eidsness (24-10-4, 2.11 GAA, .914 SV%, 3 shutouts in 2009-10) has proven he can compete for the starting job. UND boasts four defensemen who played in at least 30 games last season (Ben Blood, Derek Forbort, Andrew MacWilliam, and Dillan Simpson), and freshman Danny Mattson should contribute right away.

After this weekend’s Icebreaker tournament, UND will play four more non-conference games at home (two games each against Maine and Harvard) and will appear as the home team in non-conference action against Clarkson in Winnipeg, Manitoba. North Dakota’s results outside the WCHA will play a large role in the final PairWise rankings and seeding for the NCAA tournament.

The Air Force Academy boasts two players with North Dakota connections. Senior captain Paul Weisgarber is from Fargo and freshman Chad Demers hails from Grafton. Ten Falcons players come from Minnesota. Up front, Air Force is led by Weisgarber (13-12-25 last season) and junior John Kruse (11-18-29). On the blue line, senior Tim Kirby (7-16-23) is more than capable and senior captain Scott Mathis (8-19-27) is one of the best in the country.

Head coach Frank Serratore’s Falcons have finished in the top three in Atlantic Hockey in each of the past four seasons. Air Force won its first NCAA tournament game in 2009 and took Vermont to double overtime before falling to the Catamounts one game shy of the Frozen Four.

The winner of tonight’s contest will face the Boston College/Michigan State wnner on Saturday, while the two losing teams will also play. North Dakota will play in the late game on Saturday regardless of Friday’s result.

The Prediction: Scoring will be hard to come by early, but the home crowd will help North Dakota earn a close victory. UND 3-2.

Bonus prediction: In the early game, UND fans will either cheer for Michigan State (green and white teams need to stick together) or against Boston College (all those NCAA losses), but it won’t matter. The Eagles will roll. BC 4-1.

Frozen Four Preview: UND vs. Michigan

The top two hockey programs in NCAA history will square off today with a chance to advance to the 2011 national title game. The Michigan Wolverines are seeking their 10th NCAA championship, while North Dakota is looking to hoist banner number eight.

It is worth noting that Michigan collected six national championships by 1956. In the past 55 years, the Wolverines have three. During that same span (1957-2010), the Fighting Sioux have won seven national titles.

The Fighting Sioux enter the tournament on a 15-game unbeaten streak (14-0-1), and boast a win total (32) good for third place all-time among North Dakota hockey teams (the 1986-87 championship team collected 40 victories, while the 1981-82 championship team notched 35).

Much has been made of North Dakota’s familiarity with Xcel Energy Center, and that part is true: UND has won its last five games in St. Paul, including a recent WCHA Final Five tournament title. But it’s also important to remember that while the Fighting Sioux are 17-4-2 (.783) on the road this season, the Wolverines are a far more pedestrian 12-8-3 (.587).

Michigan rode a pair of one-goal victories over Nebraska-Omaha and Colorado College to advance to the Frozen Four, while North Dakota steamrolled Rensselaer and Denver by a combined score of 12-1.

UND’s Dave Hakstol has led North Dakota for seven seasons, capturing two WCHA regular season titles, three WCHA Final Five championships, and five Frozen Four appearances. Michigan’s Red Berenson won titles with the Wolverines in 1996 and 1998, and has his team in the Frozen Four for the second time since 2003.

The Maize and Blue have played in the NCAA tournament in each of the past 21 seasons. Incidentally, the next longest active streak belongs to New Hampshire (11). Before this current stretch, Michigan had appeared in the national tournament once between 1964 and 1991.

The winner of this game will advance to the 2011 Frozen Four championship game and face either Notre Dame or Minnesota-Duluth in the finals. The Fighting Irish and Bulldogs are each looking for their first national title.

Michigan Team Profile

Head Coach: Red Berenson (27th season at Michigan, 727-338-73, .671)
This Season: 28-10-4 overall, 20-7-1-0 CCHA (1st)
Last Season: 26-18-1 overall (NCAA Midwest Regional finalist), 14-13-1 CCHA (7th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-5th
National Rankings: #6/#2
Team Offense: 3.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.26 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.2% (33 of 181)
Penalty Kill: 83.1% (157 of 189)
Key Players: Senior F Carl Hagelin (18-30-48), Senior F Louie Caporusso (11-19-30), Senior F Matt Rust (5-20-25), Senior D Scooter Vaughan (13-10-23), Freshman D Jon Merrill (7-17-24), Senior G Shawn Hunwick (21-8-4, 2.26 GAA, .922 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 187-92-27, .655)
This Season: 32-8-3 overall, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 2nd
National Rankings: #1/#1
Team Offense: 4.14 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.14 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.3% (52 of 223)
Penalty Kill: 86.0% (172 of 200)
Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (36-24-60), Junior F Jason Gregoire (25-18-43), Sophomore F Corban Knight (14-30-44), Senior F Evan Trupp (17-24-41), Senior F/D Jake Marto (8-11-19), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-15-15), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (30-6-2, 1.81 GAA, .924 SV%, 6 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 24, 2007 (Denver, CO). In the semifinals of the NCAA West Regional, North Dakota scored five power play goals to defeat the Wolverines. The Maize and Blue scored two opening minute goals in the first period and matched that feat with two early markers in the middle frame, but the Fighting Sioux fought back to advance to the regional final.

Last Ten Games: North Dakota holds a record of 6-3-1 (.650) in the last ten meetings between the schools, and the Fighting Sioux are unbeaten in the series since 1998.

All-time Series: Michigan leads the series 45-40-4 (.528), but North Dakota has won two of the three NCAA tournament games between the schools.

Game News and Notes

Michigan last defeated North Dakota in March of 1998, handing that Fighting Sioux team just its eighth loss of the season. UND has outscored opponents 78-20 during its current 15-game unbeaten streak. The Fighting Sioux are 24-3-2 (.862) since Thanksgiving; Michigan, 20-7-1 (.732). Today’s semifinal game will be covered on ESPN2, with live coverage of the Frozen Four viewing party at Ralph Engelstad Arena.

The Prediction

UND has small edges in almost every area on the ice: specialty teams, goaltending, depth, experience, and top-end talent. Michigan needs to score first to keep the crowd out of the game. I think this one will be tied going into the third period, with North Dakota’s depth shining through. UND 4-2.

Bonus Frozen Four Prediction:

In the first semifinal, Minnesota Duluth will ride the goaltending of Kenny Reiter and the FCC line (Fontaine, Connolly, and Connolly) to their first national title game since 1984. UMD 3-1.

National Championship Prediction:

I have a sneaking suspicion that the all-WCHA final will go into overtime and perhaps even longer, with North Dakota topping the Bulldogs in a championship game for the ages. UND 5-4 (OT).

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

NCAA to drop nickname settlement and sanctions altogether if UND wins hockey championship

We’ve just received word that the University of North Dakota has a tremendous opportunity to settle the Fighting Sioux nickname debate on the ice next weekend in St. Paul.

And it’s as simple as this: win two games at the Frozen Four, and keep the team name and logo forever.

NCAA president Mark Emmert said that the organization’s change of heart came after watching North Dakota play in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay, Wisconsin last weekend. Emmert said he was impressed by the quality of play and quality of character demonstrated by the Green and White against RPI and Denver. Furthermore, Emmert noted that he had been swayed by the sheer number of Sioux fans in attendance, also noting the pro-UND crowd at the WCHA Final Five.

Dr. Mark A. Emmert became the 5th Executive Director of the National Collegiate Athletic Association on November 1, 2010, and he has already made waves for his desire to have a serious discussion about whether and how to share some of the NCAA’s profits with student-athletes.

So it’s no surprise that the new president decided that the decision and settlement struck by predecessor Myles Brand deserved a second look. After some careful deliberation, Emmert came up with an idea that is both innovative and intriguing: let the team earn the right to keep the name by competing for it on the ice. He was clear, however, that anything less than a national championship would not sway the NCAA.

A news conference is scheduled for 4:01 p.m. CDT.

NCAA Tournament Preview: UND vs. Denver

Sioux senior forward Matt Frattin has now scored a goal in nine straight games, and his 36 goals this season place him in the top ten among North Dakota’s all-time single season goal scorers. Frattin would need four more goals to break into the top five, a list that includes Bob Joyce (52 goals in 1986-87), Tony Hrkac (46 in 1986-87), Doug Smail (43 in 1979-80), Russ Romaniuk (40 in 1990-91), and Ben Cherski (40 in 1953-54).

During UND’s current 14 game unbeaten streak (13-0-1), Frattin has notched 16 goals and added 13 assists for 29 points (2.07 points per game).

In Denver’s last twelve contests, the Pioneers are 7-5-0. Three of DU’s last four games have gone to overtime, including last night’s double overtime victory over Western Michigan.

The Pioneers had an interesting cycle broken at the 2011 WCHA Final Five. Had the Pioneers defeated North Dakota in the title game, they would have continued their string of WCHA playoff championships every three years (1999, 2002, 2005, 2008).

After winning back-to-back national championships in 2004 and 2005, the Pios missed the NCAA tournament for two seasons before making a return in 2008. DU has played in the NCAAs the past four seasons, while North Dakota is making their ninth straight appearance.

Denver’s George Gwozdecky has been behind the bench for 17 seasons, leading the Pioneers to three WCHA regular season titles, four WCHA Final Five championships, and two national championships. UND’s Dave Hakstol has led North Dakota for seven seasons, capturing two WCHA regular season titles, three WCHA Final Five championships, and four Frozen Four appearances.

The winner of this game will advance to the 2011 Frozen Four (St. Paul, MN) and face Michigan in the semifinals. The Michigan Wolverines have nine national titles to their credit, while the Denver Pioneers and North Dakota Fighting Sioux each claim seven.

The other half of the Frozen Four bracket claims much less hardware. Minnesota-Duluth will face either Notre Dame or New Hampshire in the other semifinal in St. Paul. All three of those teams are looking for their first national championship.

There has been no official word on Sioux center Brock Nelson’s injury, although the team does not expect him back in the lineup against Denver.

Denver Team Profile

Head Coach: George Gwozdecky (17th season at DU, 398-238-55 .616)

This Season: 25-11-5 overall, 17-8-3 WCHA (2nd)
Last Season: 27-10-4 Overall (NCAA East Regional Semifinalist), 19-5-4 WCHA (1st)

Pairwise Ranking: 7th
National Rankings: #5/#5

Team Offense: 3.29 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.61 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.0% (35 of 184)
Penalty Kill: 86.3% (164 of 190)

Key Players: Freshman F Jason Zucker (22-22-44), Senior F Kyle Ostrow (15-13-28), Senior F Drew Shore (23-23-46), Senior F Anthony Maiani (8-28-36), Freshman D David Makowski (6-23-29), Sophomore D Matt Donovan (9-23-32), Freshman G Sam Brittain (19-8-5, 2.20 GAA, .924 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 186-92-27, .653)
This Season: 31-8-3 overall, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 2nd
National Rankings: #1/#1

Team Offense: 4.05 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.22 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.0% (48 of 209)
Penalty Kill: 85.1% (160 of 188)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (36-23-59), Junior F Jason Gregoire (25-17-42), Sophomore F Corban Knight (14-30-44), Senior F Evan Trupp (16-24-40), Senior F/D Jake Marto (7-11-18), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-15-15), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (29-6-2, 1.83 GAA, .923 SV%, 6 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 19, 2011 (St. Paul, MN). North Dakota and Denver needed two overtimes to decide the WCHA Final Five championship, and Matt Frattin provided the knockout punch. Frattin also netted the game-winner against Colorado College one night earlier and was named the Most Outstanding Player of the tournament. Exactly one year earlier, North Dakota knocked off the #1-seeded Pioneers to advance to the Final Five title game.

Last Meeting in the NCAA tournament: April 9, 2005 (St. Louis, MO). Denver’s Paul Stastny (two goals and one assist) and Peter Mannino (44 saves) led the Pioneers to a 4-1 victory in the 2005 national championship game. Travis Zajac scored the only goal for North Dakota, who put 23 shots on net in the third period alone but came up empty.

Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963.

Last Ten Games: Denver has had a slight edge lately, going 5-4-1 (.550) in the last ten meetings between the schools.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 132-115-8 (.533).

Game News and Notes

Denver freshman forward Jason Zucker scored three goals in a weekend series at North Dakota in October but was held off the scoresheet against UND at the WCHA Final Five. North Dakota is the only #1 seed remaining in the NCAA tournament (Boston College, Miami, and Yale lost this weekend). Hobey Baker hopeful Matt Frattin has 47 goals in his last 55 games. In this year’s playoffs (five games) the Pioneers have outscored opponents 13-1 in the third period. UND sophomore netminder Aaron Dell notched his 29th victory of the season against RPI, tying Ed Belfour’s single season record at North Dakota.

The Prediction

Denver has talent, grit, and resiliency, and they are never out of a game until the final whistle. That being said, UND is on a mission this season, and they have their sights set on the Frozen Four. This game will be an instant classic and could go either way. The Pioneers had to settle for second place in the WCHA regular season and at the Final Five, and they’ll end up in the same spot again. North Dakota 4-3.

NCAA Tournament Preview: UND vs. Rensselaer

RPI head coach Seth Appert left the coaching staff at Denver University following the 2005-06 season, and in his first three years behind the bench for the Engineers, he collected 31 victories (31-68-14).

With a victory today, North Dakota would collect its 31st victory of the 2010-11 season.

To be fair, Appert has turned things around at Rensselaer. Last season, RPI finished above .500 (18-17-4), and this year, the Engineers are back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1995. Rensselaer won the ECAC playoff title that season, and has not collected any hardware since then, a span of 15 years.

Since 1995, North Dakota has won six WCHA regular season titles, four WCHA playoff championships, and two national titles among 13 NCAA tournament appearances and seven trips the Frozen Four.

RPI senior forward Chase Polacek is the two-time ECAC player of the year and a Hobey Baker finalist this season. 11 of his 21 goals have come with the man advantage, and he has nine game winners to his credit.

North Dakota boasts a Hobey finalist of their own in senior forward Matt Frattin, who netted both game winners last weekend at the WCHA Final Five. Frattin’s 35 goals lead the nation, and he is almost certain to find his name in the Hobey Hat Trick later this month.

Rensselaer hasn’t played since March 6th, when they were bounced by Colgate in double overtime in the first round of the ECAC playoffs. RPI has won only twice in the last nine games (2-6-1), with three of those losses coming in overtime. To be be fair, goaltender Allen York was sick or injured for the majority of that stretch.

UND is unbeaten in their last 13 games (12-0-1), outscoring opponents 66-19 in that span. It is worth noting that two of those victories came against Colorado College by scores of 6-0 and 4-3.

In one-goal games this season, North Dakota is 8-3-0, while RPI is a pedestrian 8-8-0. Away from home, the Engineers are 7-6-3, while the Fighting Sioux boast a 12-4-2 mark on the road.

Sioux junior forward Jason Gregoire (undisclosed injury) has been practicing with the team and is expected to be in the lineup this afternoon.

North Dakota should be able to roll four lines and play whichever style the Engineers bring to the ice today. Goaltending is the great equalizer in playoff hockey, however, and RPI’s Allen York is capable of keeping his team in any contest.

Rensselaer Team Profile

Head Coach: (Seth Appert, 5th season at RPI, 69-97-23, .426)
This Season: 20-12-5 overall, 11-9-2 ECAC (t-4th)
Last Season: 18-17-4 overall, 10-9-3 ECAC (t-5th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-13th
National Rankings: #16/#15
Team Offense: 2.97 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.27 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.3% (36 of 197)
Penalty Kill: 84.8% (162 of 191)
Key Players: Senior F Chase Polacek (21-27-48), Senior F Tyler Helfrich (14-24-38), Freshman F Brock Higgs (9-12-21), Sophomore D Nick Bailen (8-28-36), Junior D Mike Bergin (2-16-18), Junior G Allen York (18-10-4, 2.05 GAA, .927 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 185-92-27, .653)
This Season: 30-8-3, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 2nd
National Rankings: #1/#1
Team Offense: 4.05 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.22 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.0% (48 of 209)
Penalty Kill: 85.1% (160 of 188)
Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (35-22-57), Junior F Jason Gregoire (24-17-41), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-29-42), Senior F Evan Trupp (16-21-37), Senior F/D Jake Marto (7-11-18), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-15-15), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (28-6-2, 1.88 GAA, .921 SV%, 5 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: January 13, 1990 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota completed the sweep of the visiting Engineers with a 5-3 victory after downing RPI 2-1 a night earlier. Current Sioux coaches Dave Hakstol and Dane Jackson were players on that UND team, while Cary Eades was an assistant on the coaching staff.

Most important meetings: March 16 and 17, 1984 (Troy, NY). The only previous NCAA tournament games between the schools came in March of 1984, when the Fighting Sioux swept the quarterfinal series, 5-4 and 4-2.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 7-1-0 (.875). Rensselaer’s only victory over North Dakota came on November 24, 1984, when RPI crushed the homestanding Sioux 8-2 in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

Before today’s matchup in the Midwest regional (Green Bay, WI), the Sioux and Engineers had only played in two locations: Troy, New York (1960, 1981, and 1984) and Grand Forks, ND (1984 and 1990). North Dakota is 17-3-1 (.833) since Christmas and enters the NCAA tournament on a season-long 13-game unbeaten streak (12-0-1).

The Prediction

Everything points to North Dakota in this one. UND has the experience, talent, depth, and tenacity to shut down the Engineers. The only question is how the games will be officiated, as the Fighting Sioux prefer to play fast and physical. If North Dakota gives Rensselaer five or more power plays, it could be a close one. UND 4-2.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

NCAA Tournament Predictions

Here they are, my picks for the Frozen Four from each regional:

West Regional Final: Boston College over Nebraska-Omaha

Midwest Regional Final: North Dakota over Denver

Northeast Regional Final: New Hampshire over Merrimack

East Regional Final: Yale over Minnesota-Duluth

Feel free to add your own or let me know how many I get wrong. As always, thanks for reading!

WCHA Final Five Predictions

It’s a little difficult to write a preview for North Dakota’s first game when the opponent hasn’t been set yet. So rather than a full preview, I’ll give you my thoughts for each of the Thursday games and how I see the tournament shaking out:

Quarterfinal #1: #4 Minnesota-Duluth (22-9-6) vs. #10 Bemidji State (14-17-5)

These two teams haven’t played since late October in Bemidji, when the Bulldogs took three points from the homestanding Beavers. Bemidji is getting great goaltending and UMD is cooling off a bit (4-4-2 in their last ten games), but not that much. BSU doesn’t have an answer for the FCC line (Fontaine, Connolly, and Connolly), and Minnesota-Duluth will prevail, 4-2.

Quarterfinal #2: #6 Colorado College (21-17-3) vs. #8 Alaska-Anchorage (16-17-3)

The Seawolves took three of four games from the Tigers in the regular season, and UAA has won five straight coming in to the Final Five. CC has not swept a team since January 14th-15th (Alabama Huntsville). Colorado College has only won one game at the Final Five since 2003, and they’ll go home early again this year. Alaska-Anchorage in a mild upset, 3-2.

Semifinal #1: #4 Minnesota-Duluth (22-9-6) vs. #2 Denver (23-10-5)

These two teams are so close, but Duluth proved in 2009 that they can win multiple games on Final Five weekend and I have the sense that the Bulldogs will find the championship game yet again. Before the playoffs started, the Pioneers sputtered to the finish line, splitting their last five series in league play (including home losses against St. Cloud State and Michigan Tech). This one could go to overtime, with a Connolly netting the game winner. Minnesota-Duluth 5-4 (OT).

Semifinal #2: #1 North Dakota (28-8-3) vs. #8 Alaska-Anchorage (16-17-3)

We saw this matchup twice last month, and there’s no reason to believe Anchorage will muster more than one goal against the Fighting Sioux this time around. UND will need to wear white all weekend (rather than their “business suit” blacks), but it won’t matter here. North Dakota 4-1.

Championship Game: #1 North Dakota (28-8-3) vs. #4 Minnesota-Duluth (22-9-6)

I would pay to watch these two teams play a seven game series. It’s possible that Duluth would be playing for a #1 seed in the national tournament, and that extra motivation could put them over the top. No matter which way this game goes, I think the Fighting Sioux and Bulldogs will meet somewhere in the NCAAs. I’ll give this round to UMD. Minnesota-Duluth 4-3.

News and Notes:

With two victories this weekend, North Dakota would reach the 30 victory mark for the first time under head coach Dave Hakstol.

According to Jim Dahl’s excellent analysis (found here), North Dakota, Denver, and Duluth are all assured of a spot in the NCAA tournament. Colorado College, Alaska-Anchorage, and Bemidji State all need help outside their control, or can secure a bid in the NCAA’s by winning the Final Five this weekend.

On the outside looking in: Nebraska-Omaha is the only WCHA team sitting at home this weekend that can still make the NCAA tournament. The Mavericks can finish anywhere from 12th to 16th in the final Pairwise rankings. The other five teams in the conference (Minnesota, Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, MSU-Mankato, and Michigan Tech) have played their last game for 2010-11.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.