Predicting the Hobey Baker Top Ten

This is my yearly attempt to predict the ten finalists for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award. In the past, my results have been mixed, from a high of seven to a low of four.

As you may remember, my top ten is weighted toward players on teams still alive for the national tournament, although there are a couple of picks outside of the NCAA field (from Niagara and Wisconsin).

Skaters (in alphabetical order):

Cam Atkinson, junior forward, Boston College: 28 goals, 20 assists, 48 points

Carter Camper, senior forward, Miami (OH): 17 goals, 35 assists, 52 points

Jack Connolly, junior forward, Minnesota-Duluth: 15 goals, 39 assists, 54 points

Stephane Da Costa, sophomore forward, Merrimack: 14 goals, 27 assists, 41 points

Matt Frattin, senior forward, North Dakota: 33 goals, 21 assists, 54 points

Andy Miele, senior forward, Miami (OH): 21 goals, 44 assists, 65 points

Justin Schultz, sophomore defenseman, Wisconsin: 18 goals, 29 assists, 47 points

Paul Thompson, senior forward, New Hampshire: 28 goals, 24 assists, 52 points

Paul Zanette, senior forward, Niagara: 29 goals, 26 assists, 55 points

Goaltender:

Keith Kinkaid, sophomore, Union: 25-9-3, 1.98 goals-against average, .920 save percentage, 3 shutouts

A couple of these were very tough calls. I could have gone with North Dakota’s Chay Genoway and Aaron Dell over Justin Schultz and Keith Kinkaid, but I have a feeling that UND will have one Hobey hopeful this year.

Feel free to argue, debate, and add your own opinions. Check back after the announcement on Thursday evening to see how I did.

WCHA First Round Playoff Preview: UND vs. Michigan Tech

The future looks brighter for Michigan Tech. The freshmen and sophomore classes continue to lead the Huskies, and all seven point producers last weekend in Houghton were first- and second-year players.

Jamie Russell will graduate only three players after this season, and there’s reason to believe that MTU will avoid the WCHA basement in 2011-2012.

For North Dakota, the time is now. The Fighting Sioux boast two legitimate scoring lines (Frattin-Malone-Trupp and Gregoire-Knight-Hextall) and the league’s best defense and goaltending. Dave Hakstol’s squad is unbeaten in their last nine games (8-0-1), and destroyed Michigan Tech last weekend by a combined score of 17-3.

Despite the mismatch, history tells us that at least one of these games will be closer than last weekend’s scores. In March 2009, UND defeated Michigan Tech 5-1, 4-3 in the first round, and in March 2008, the Huskies took North Dakota to a third game, with the Fighting Sioux prevailing in the series 4-0, 2-3 (OT), 2-1.

One area of concern for North Dakota is whether the games will get out of hand if and when the scoreboard gets out of hand. In Saturday’s 11-2 drubbing of the Huskies, Michigan Tech was whistled for 49 minutes in penalties, including a 5 minute major for checking from behind and three 10 minute misconducts. UND would like to get out of this series in two games and in one piece.

Michigan Tech Team Profile

Head Coach: (Jamie Russell, 8th season at MTU, 70-195-37, .293)

This Season: 4-28-4, 2-24-2 WCHA (12th)
Last Season: 5-30-1 overall, 4-24-0 WCHA (10th)
Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.06 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 4.39 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 16.0% (24 of 150)
Penalty Kill: 74.8% (107 of 143)

Key Players: Sophomore F Milos Gordic (15-6-21), Freshman F Ryan Furne (11-9-20), Freshman F Jacob Johnstone (4-14-18), Senior D Deron Cousens (2-18-20), Sophomore D Steven Seigo (4-13-17), Sophomore G Kevin Genoe (3-16-2, 3.86 GAA, .888 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 181-92-27, .648)

This Season: 26-8-3, 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 3rd
National Rankings: #1/#1

Team Offense: 4.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.30 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.4% (46 of 197)
Penalty Kill: 84.9% (146 of 172)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (29-20-49), Junior F Jason Gregoire (21-16-37), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-27-40), Senior F Evan Trupp (16-18-34), Senior F/D Jake Marto (6-11-17), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-15-15), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (24-6-2, 1.95 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: March 5, 2011 (Houghton, MI). North Dakota scored early (four goals in the first five minutes) and often (11 goals total) in completing a weekend sweep of the Huskies, 11-2. Jason Gregoire netted a hat trick, and Brett Hextall and Mario Lamoureux both collected four points. Huskies starting goaltender Josh Robinson lasted only 4 minutes and 39 seconds, allowing four goals on six shots.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: March 6, 2010 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota rallied from a two goal deficit to defeat the visiting Huskies 3-2 and secure a weekend sweep. UND forward Jason Gregoire potted two goals and Mario Lamoureux added the game winner midway through the third period.

Most Important Meeting: The Sioux and Huskies have never met in the NCAA tournament, so I will go with the most important meeting that never was: in 1965, the Sioux lost to Boston College, 4-3, one game short of the national championship game, where they would have faced the Michigan Tech Huskies, who won the second of their three titles by defeating the Eagles. UND settled for third place that season, downing Brown University, 9-5. North Dakota went 13-3-0 in the regular season in 1964-65, with two of those three losses coming at the hands of Michigan Tech.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 142-90-9 (.608), including a 79-33-4 (.698) record in games played in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: UND has posted a 9-0-1 (.950) record in the last ten games between the teams. The only blemish on that mark came in January 2009 when the teams skated to a 3-3 tie in Houghton. North Dakota avenged the tie with a 5-0 drubbing the following night. The Fighting Sioux have outscored the Huskies 50-16 in the last ten games.

Game News and Notes

This weekend’s playoff series will mark the third time in four seasons that UND hosts the Huskies in the first round of the WCHA playoffs. Michigan Tech has not played in the NCAA tournament since 1981, but advanced to the WCHA Final Five in 2007. Sioux forwards Matt Frattin, Jason Gregoire, and Evan Trupp have all joined UND’s Century Club (100 career points) in the past two weekends. North Dakota is now averaging four goals per game, and the team is 20-1-1 when scoring at least four goals.

The Prediction

North Dakota will roll on Friday night, but have a tougher time on Saturday. The Huskies go down, but not without a fight. UND 6-1, 4-2.

Bonus Predictions

#11 MSU-Mankato at #2 Denver: Denver in 3

#10 Bemidji State at #3 Nebraska-Omaha: Nebraska-Omaha in 2

#9 St. Cloud State at #4 Minnesota-Duluth: St. Cloud State in 3

#8 Alaska-Anchorage at #5 Minnesota: Minnesota in 3

#7 Wisconsin at #6 Colorado College: Colorado College in 3

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments, suggestions, and predictions.

Weekend Preview: UND at Michigan Tech

It’s been a rough season for the Michigan Tech Huskies. In fact, it’s been a rough three seasons.

Jamie Russell’s squad has won only four games in 2010-11. To put that in perspective, North Dakota won five games in February (5-0-1). At one point, the Huskies went on a winless streak of historic proportions, going 0-23-2 with a stretch of 15 straight losses.

In the past three seasons, MTU has won 15 games (15-81-12). The Fighting Sioux have won 15 games in the past three months (15-3-1).

So it’s no surprise that visiting North Dakota is the heavy favorite in the matchup this weekend and when the teams play at UND in the first round of the WCHA playoffs next week.

But there are signs of improvement for Michigan Tech. The Huskies have only allowed six more power play goals than they’ve scored this season, much better than the -48 they posted over the past two seasons. Although their power play and penalty kill numbers are still dreadful, the biggest difference is that MTU is staying out of the box.

The other bright spot for the Huskies has been the play of their freshman class. Three of the top seven point producers for MTU are first-year players, and as a class, the top six rookies have scored 24 goals and added 43 assists in 201 combined games played.

On the negative side for MTU is team defense and goaltending. Opponents are averaging over 36 shots on goal per game, sophomore G Kevin Genoe is routinely left out to dry, and the team has only allowed two goals or less 5 times all season.

By comparison, UND has allowed two goals or less 22 times this year, and are allowing opponents an average of 24 shots on goal per game.

If you factor in team offense (MTU is scoring 2.09 goals per game; UND 3.74), it’s easy to see why the records are mirror images of each other (MTU 4-26-4, UND 24-8-3).

Despite all of the numbers, it will be very difficult for North Dakota to beat Michigan Tech (or any opponent, for that matter) four consecutive times. I expect one game each weekend to be a close contest, and if the Huskies can get great goaltending, they could steal a game and make UND’s road to the WCHA Final Five very interesting.

In the chase for the MacNaughton Cup (WCHA regular season champion), the Fighting Sioux have clinched at least a share and would capture the trophy outright with at least one point this weekend.

Michigan Tech Team Profile

Head Coach: (Jamie Russell, 8th season at MTU, 70-193-37, .295)

This Season: 4-26-4, 2-22-2 WCHA (12th)
Last Season: 5-30-1 overall, 4-24-0 WCHA (10th)
Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.09 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 4.15 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.0% (24 of 141)
Penalty Kill: 76.9% (100 of 130)

Key Players: Sophomore F Milos Gordic (15-6-21), Freshman F Ryan Furne (11-9-20), Freshman F Jacob Johnstone (4-14-18), Senior D Deron Cousens (2-18-20), Sophomore D Steven Seigo (4-13-17), Sophomore G Kevin Genoe (3-15-2, 3.61 GAA, .893 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 179-92-27, .646)

This Season: 24-8-3, 19-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 2nd
National Rankings: #1/#1

Team Offense: 3.74 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.34 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.7% (40 of 184)
Penalty Kill: 84.0% (137 of 163)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (27-15-42), Junior F Jason Gregoire (17-14-31), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-24-37), Senior F Evan Trupp (14-17-31), Senior F/D Jake Marto (6-9-15), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-13-13), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (23-6-2, 1.98 GAA, .918 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 6, 2010 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota rallied from a two goal deficit to defeat the visiting Huskies 3-2 and secure a weekend sweep. UND forward Jason Gregoire potted two goals and Mario Lamoureux added the game winner midway through the third period.

Last Meeting in Houghton: November 7, 2009. MTU jumped all over the Sioux early but got into penalty trouble in the middle frame, taking four straight penalties. North Dakota’s Evan Trupp scored two goals in the 4-1 UND victory. A night earlier, the Green and White won 4-2.

Most Important Meeting: The Sioux and Huskies have never met in the NCAA tournament, so I will go with the most important meeting that never was: in 1965, the Sioux lost to Boston College, 4-3, one game short of the national championship game, where they would have faced the Michigan Tech Huskies, who won the second of their three titles by defeating the Eagles. UND settled for third place that season, downing Brown University, 9-5. North Dakota went 13-3-0 in the regular season in 1964-65, with two of those three losses coming at the hands of Michigan Tech.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 140-90-9 (.605), including a slight edge (59-55-5, .517) in games played in Houghton. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: UND has posted an 8-1-1 (.850) record in the last ten games between the teams. Michigan Tech’s lone victory in that stretch came at the Great Lakes Invitational (Detroit, MI). The Fighting Sioux have outscored the Huskies 36-16 in the last ten games.

Game News and Notes:

UND and Michigan Tech will also meet in the first round of the WCHA playoffs. It will mark the third time in the last four years that North Dakota hosts the Huskies in the postseason. Michigan Tech has not played in the NCAA tournament since 1981, but advanced to the WCHA Final Five in 2007. Sioux senior forward Matt Frattin joined UND’s Century Club last weekend (100 career points), and two of his teammates are close to that milestone. Senior Evan Trupp (98 career points) and junior Jason Gregoire (97) could find the score sheet often enough this weekend to reach 100.

The Prediction

I’ve got Friday’s opener as all North Dakota, with Michigan Tech sending a message in the rematch that next weekend’s playoff series will not be easy for the Green and White. UND 5-1, 4-3.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Bemidji State

Bemidji State had a rough introduction to the WCHA. In addition to losing their first two games at home to North Dakota by identical 5-2 scores, the Beavers didn’t find their third victory of the season until November 27th. To put that in perspective, North Dakota had won nine games by that point.

That victory over Northern Michigan, coupled with a home sweep over Nebraska-Omaha the following weekend, gave the BSU faithful some hope. Since that time, however, Tom Serratore’s squad has gone just 7-6-3 and are almost certainly going on the road for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. Bemidji State is currently in 9th place in the league, tied with the other two “State”s (MSU-Mankato and St. Cloud). If the Beavers are looking to move up in the standings and host playoff games at the BREC, they will need a split (or better) this weekend.

North Dakota hasn’t missed a beat since losing defenseman Chay Genoway (lower body injury) and forward Danny Kristo (frostbite). The team has clicked in their absence, and the return of forwards Jason Gregoire (7-7-14 in his last eight games) and Brett Hextall (5-2-7 in his last five) has softened the blow somewhat.

There is an outside chance that league-leading UND would hoist the MacNaughton Cup (WCHA regular season championship trophy) this weekend at Ralph Engelstad Arena. A sweep, coupled with some help (Denver, Duluth, and Nebraska-Omaha are all within three points, with DU and UNO playing each other) could lead to a celebration on Sunday afternoon.

And a final word about the ice conditions: REA is hosting the North Dakota state boys’ and girls’ hockey championships this weekend, in addition to the UND mens’ hockey series against Bemidji State. Kudos to the staff and crew at REA for keeping the ice in great shape over this stretch of games.

Bemidji State Team Profile

Head Coach: Tom Serratore (10th season at BSU, 175-142-37 .547)
This Season: 12-14-4, 8-12-4 WCHA (t-9th)
Last Season: 23-10-4 (NCAA Midwest Regional semifinalist), 14-3-1 CHA (1st)
Pairwise Ranking: 29th
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.30 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.47 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.6% (21 of 102)
Penalty Kill: 82.6% (114 of 138)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Read (16-12-28), Senior F Ian Lowe (11-12-23), Sophomore F Jordan George (14-17-31), Junior D Brad Hunt (1-16-17), Freshman D Sam Rendle (3-8-11), Junior G Dan Bakala (11-9-3, 2.17 GAA, .925 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 177-92-27, .644)
This Season: 22-8-3, 17-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 2nd
National Rankings: #1/#1

Team Offense: 3.67 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.39 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.7% (34 of 173)
Penalty Kill: 84.0% (131 of 156)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (24-14-38), Junior F Jason Gregoire (14-14-28), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-20-33), Senior F Evan Trupp (13-15-28), Senior F/D Jake Marto (5-7-12), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-13-13), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (21-6-2, 2.02 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 16, 2010 (Bemidji, MN). North Dakota defeated the Beavers 5-2 to earn the road sweep after downing BSU one night earlier by the identical score. Matt Frattin scored four goals and added an assist in the weekend series.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: January 3, 2009. The Fighting Sioux scored a power play goal thirty seconds into overtime to upend the visiting Beavers 4-3. BSU had tallied its own man-advantage marker midway through the third period to tie the score. North Dakota doubled BSU in the shot department, 40-20.

Most Important Meeting: October 15, 2010 (Bemidji, MN). In the first game played at the BREC (Bemidji Regional Events Center), North Dakota spotted BSU the opening goal less than two minutes into the contest and then steamrolled the Beavers 5-2. The Fighting Sioux outshot their fellow Green-and-Whiters 38-14.

Last Ten: North Dakota has won the last ten meetings between the teams by a combined score of 40-18. One of the victories came in overtime.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 19-1-1 (.929), including a 12-1-1 (.893) record in games played in Grand Forks. BSU’s lone victory over North Dakota came on February 7, 1990.

Game News and Notes:

UND clinched home ice for the opening round of the WCHA playoffs for the ninth consecutive year, the longest active streak in the league. North Dakota forwards Matt Frattin (97 career points) and Evan Trupp (96 career points) could join UND’s Century Club this weekend. This season, Bemidji State is 9-1-1 when leading after two periods and 1-9-1 when trailing after two periods. The Fighting Sioux senior class has scored nearly half (60 of 121) of the team’s goals this season. The Beavers are riding a five game unbeaten streak (3-0-2). Sophomore Aaron Dell has started the last twenty games in net for North Dakota (14-3-2, 1.84 GAA, .930 SV%, 3 SO in that span).

The Prediction

The afternoon games are always tricky to predict, but North Dakota has been on a roll and the only thing that could derail the train is BSU’s line of Jordan George, Ian Lowe, and Matt Read. I’m seeing two close games, with UND’s depth (watch for scoring from unexpected places this weekend) proving to be the difference. UND 4-2, 3-2.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

The Prediction Business

In the past couple of months, I’ve heard plenty of comments about my score predictions and how accurate they (sometimes) are. I always have four things in mind when I set out to anticipate the results of a game or series:

#1: How many points will each team earn on the weekend? This one is fairly simple. Do I expect a split? Sweep? Three points?

#2: The result of each individual game (win, loss, or tie). In other words, will the home team take the opener but struggle in the rematch? Will travel be a factor? How have the teams been playing on Fridays and Saturdays?

#3: The nature of each game. Will the result be lopsided? Low scoring? Racehorse hockey?

#4: The actual score I expect for each game. Hockey scores are so random, with special teams, goaltending, and in-game adjustments all playing a role.

I went back and looked at the past 10 weekends for North Dakota. One of the weekends was a single game at Duluth (Hall of Fame Game), while the other nine were two-game series. So we’ve got a stretch of 19 games to examine.

Here are my predictions, the actual scores, and a comment for each series.

vs. Notre Dame Prediction: 5-2, 2-2. Actual Scores: 6-3, 2-2. I feel good about this; picking a three point series is tough, and I nearly nailed both scores.

vs. St. Cloud State Prediction: 5-2, 3-3. Actual Scores: 3-1. 6-2. Meh.

at MSU-Mankato Prediction: 4-3, 4-2. Actual Scores 4-3, 4-2. Doesn’t get any better than this.

at Minnesota-Duluth Prediction: 4-3. Actual Score: 5-0. Predicted the victory, but that’s about it.

vs. Robert Morris Prediction: 6-1, 3-2. Actual Scores: 8-0, 2-1. As I said above, I nailed the results and the types of games we could expect. Good stuff here.

vs. Minnesota Prediction: 2-3, 4-1. Actual Scores: 2-3, 4-1. Nailed it again. This is when the buzz about my predictions really started.

vs. Nebraska-Omaha Prediction: 3-2, 3-3. Actual Scores: 4-8, 4-2. Ugh.

at Colorado College Prediction: 3-2, 3-4. Actual Scores: 2-4, 6-0. I called the split, but had the wins reversed and the scores were not close at all.

vs. Alaska-Anchorage Prediction: 6-2, 2-1. Actual Scores 6-1, 3-1. I’m as happy about this as I am about calling both scores right. No one expected UND to hang 6 on the Seawolves, but I had to go with my gut.

at St. Cloud State Prediction: 3-3, 5-1. Actual Scores: 3-3, 3-2. Called the three points and got the opening score correct. The second game was much closer than the four goal cushion I gave the Sioux, but still not bad.

So if you’re counting at home (and if, amazingly, you’re still reading), the following stats might help:

I called the exact score in 6 of 19 games.

I predicted the correct result (win, loss, or tie) for each individual game 14 out of 19 times.

I correctly predicted the number of points the Sioux would earn in 8 of 10 weekends, only missing UNO (called three points, series was a split) and SCSU (called three points, series was a UND sweep).

Over the last ten weekends, I predicted UND’s record in those games would be 13-2-4 (.789). North Dakota’s actual record was 14-3-2 (also .789).

Bottom line: I’ll keep cranking out scores and we’ll see how close we can get the rest of the way.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. St. Cloud State

It’s the middle of February, and St. Cloud State sits behind Alaska-Anchorage in the league standings.

I’m not sure I’m as good at predictions as some of you think I am, for reasons I’m about to illustrate:

Before the season started, I picked St. Cloud to finish 2nd and Anchorage to finish 11th. According to Jim Dahl’s “possible outcomes” thread, SCSU can finish no higher than 3rd, and those possibilities look even more remote with North Dakota coming to town.

In October, the Huskies appeared to be locked and loaded to challenge UND for the league title, with the only question mark on the blue line. At this point in the season, SCSU is loaded with question marks. Bob Motzko’s squad went on a seven-game unbeaten streak, but that was bookended with seven losses by a combined score of 30-10.

The road doesn’t get any easier as SCSU struggles to gain home ice for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. After a home series against the Fighting Sioux, the Huskies host Wisconsin and travel to Denver to close out the regular season.

North Dakota clinched home ice and moved into first place in the league with a home sweep last weekend. UND has the easiest remaining schedule of the MacNaughton contenders, with a home series against Bemidji State and a road trip to Michigan Tech on the schedule.

Since losing defenseman Chay Genoway (lower body injury) and forward Danny Kristo (frostbite), the Fighting Sioux have played some of their best hockey of the season. The return of forwards Brett Hextall and Jason Gregoire from injury has helped in that regard. Gregoire, in particular, has been an offensive catalyst, notching twelve points in eight games since his return to the lineup.

UND goaltender Aaron Dell notched his 20th victory of the season last weekend against Alaska-Anchorage, and has looked steady all season long. In addition to four shutouts, Dell has allowed a single goal in seven other starts. Junior netminder Brad Eidsness might not see the crease again this year.

This weekend, the teams will be earning points for the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup, a traveling fan trophy awarded to the team which wins the four-game season series. North Dakota swept the series in Grand Forks and will claim the trophy outright with at least one point in the series. The Cup will be awarded in St. Cloud on Saturday. February 19th. Including this year, North Dakota has won at least a share of the Challenge Cup each of the past five seasons.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: Bob Motzko (6th season at SCSU, 117-88-28, .562)
This Season: 12-14-4, 8-11-3 WCHA (9th)
Last Season: 24-14-5 (NCAA West Regional finalist), 15-9-4 WCHA (3rd)
Pairwise Ranking: t-26th
National Rankings: NR/NR

Team Offense: 2.90 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.00 goal sallowed/game
Power Play: 16.8% (29 of 173)
Penalty Kill: 83.3% (110 of 132)

Key Players: Senior F Garrett Roe (6-22-28), Junior F Drew LeBlanc (12-23-35), Junior F Jared Festler (11-7-18), Freshman D Nick Jensen (5-11-16), Senior D Brett Barta (1-10-11), Sophomore G Mike Lee (10-10-3, 2.83 GAA, .905 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 176-92-26, .643)
This Season: 21-8-2, 16-6-0 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: 3rd
National Rankings: #2/#2

Team Offense: 3.71 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.39 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.8% (32 of 162)
Penalty Kill: 85.1% (126 of 148)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (22-13-35), Senior F Brad Malone (9-17-26), Sophomore F Corban Knight (13-18-31), Senior F Evan Trupp (13-15-28), Senior F/D Jake Marto (5-7-12), Junior D Ben Blood (1-6-7), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (20-6-1, 1.99 GAA, .920 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 4, 2010 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota put on the black jerseys and exploded for five first period goals in a rout over visiting St. Cloud State. UND’s 6-2 victory secured the first home sweep of the season for the Fighting Sioux.

Last Meeting in St. Cloud: February 13, 2010. After a scoreless first period, UND erupted for six goals in the middle frame and destroyed the homestanding Huskies, 8-1. Sioux forward Matt Frattin added two goals in the third period.

Most Important Meeting: There are two classic Final Five championship games between the schools:

2001: St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

2010: SCSU took a 2-0 lead less than a minute into the Final Five title game but couldn’t make it last, falling to North Dakota 5-3. UND became the second team in as many seasons to notch three victories at the WCHA postseason tournament.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 55-29-10 (.638), including a 21-16-5 (.560) record in St. Cloud.

Last Ten: North Dakota holds a 7-3-0 (.700) edge in the last ten meetings between the two teams. UND and SCSU play four regular season games every year under the WCHA’s schedule partner arrangement.

Challenge Cup: The two schools shared the Challenge Cup last season, splitting both regular season series. North Dakota has already claimed at least a share of the Cup with a sweep in Grand Forks earlier this season.

Game News and Notes

In the last meeting between the teams, UND wore black jerseys at home for just the second time ever. St. Cloud State is only 4-7-3 at the National Hockey Center this season, with home victories over Quinnipiac and Bemidji State and a sweep against Michigan Tech. North Dakota is 9-4-1 on the road, with sweeps at Bemidji State, Wisconsin, and MSU-Mankato. The Fighting Sioux have won the last four games between the teams by a combined score of 22-7.

The Prediction

If these two teams met on neutral ice or in Grand Forks, I would predict another Sioux sweep. But UND has struggled on Friday nights in St. Cloud (0-7-3 in their last ten), and I have a feeling that they’ll need to mount a comeback to salvage a tie in the opener. The rematch is all North Dakota. 3-3 tie, UND 5-1.

On A Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of the Center Ice Club, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon (February 19th) from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Legends Grill and Bar in the Holiday Inn Hotel and Suites in St. Cloud. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, share in some complimentary food and door prizes, and view the Challenge Cup. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

UND/SCSU Challenge Cup

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its schedule rotation, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season. St. Cloud State and North Dakota were partnered up in a scheduling system that ended in 2009-10.

This season, even though the WCHA expanded to 12 teams (adding Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha) and implemented a new rotating schedule, UND and SCSU continue to play four games each year. For a complete look at the new WCHA schedule, click here.

Over the past seven seasons, the fans have made their mark on the partnership between the schools. The UND/SCSU rivalry has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

Challenge Cup

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is awarded to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games. As you may be able to see in the photo above, the winning team is engraved for each year. UND won the Challenge Cup in 2005, going 3-0-1 against the Huskies. St. Cloud took the trophy back in 2006, sporting a record of 3-1-0 against North Dakota. In 2007, the Sioux won two games and tied the other two, collecting six points and the Challenge Cup. The next season, the teams shared the Cup, with UND and SCSU each winning one game and tying the other two. In 2009, North Dakota sprinted to the lead in the Challenge Cup race by winning both games in Grand Forks but needed a Saturday victory in St. Cloud to salvage a split on the weekend and reclaim the Cup. And last season, both series were splits, and the Challenge Cup was shared once again. If you’re keeping track at home, UND has won the Cup three times, St. Cloud has claimed the Cup once, and the schools have shared the Challenge Cup twice.

Earlier this season, North Dakota swept a pair of games from SCSU in Grand Forks, so St. Cloud will have to return the favor and notch two victories this weekend to claim a share of the trophy.

The Challenge Cup will be on display at the Center Ice Club pre-game social this Saturday, February 19th from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Legends Bar inside the Holiday Inn (Division Street and 37th Avenue) in St. Cloud. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of this hockey rivalry. There will be complimentary food and door prizes. The event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

For a complete preview of this weekend’s series, click here. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Alaska-Anchorage

Alaska-Anchorage is looking at their best conference finish in program history. Before the season started, I predicted that the Seawolves would finish 11th out of 12 teams, and I wrote this:

11. Alaska-Anchorage: Ten freshmen and 40 minutes of returning experience in net means the Seawolves will be lucky to win five WCHA games.

So far this year, the six freshman forwards have appeared in a total of 101 games, scoring 18 goals and adding 30 assists. The two freshman blue liners have combined for 40 games, contributing 2 goals and 3 assists. That has taken some of the scoring load off of seniors Tommy Grant and Craig Parkinson and allowed freshmen goaltenders Rob Gunderson and Chris Kamal to grow accustomed to league play.

And I was dead wrong about the win total: UAA has already notched nine wins in the WCHA and is currently tied for 6th place in the league standings (with Colorado College).

Of the top five teams in the league, North Dakota has the easiest schedule remaining. After UAA, the Fighting Sioux will travel to St. Cloud and Michigan Tech and host Bemidji State over the final three weekends of the regular season. Denver has tough tests on the road (Minnesota and Nebraska-Omaha), and Duluth closes out the year with a road trip to Colorado College and a home series against UNO. As you can see, it will be almost impossible for Dean Blais’ squad to gain ground, as they also have Wisconsin at home and a road series at Anchorage. Wisconsin also faces Minnesota and Colorado College over the final month.

Alaska-Anchorage Team Profile

Head Coach: (Dave Shyiak, 6th season at UAA, 61-122-24, .353)

This Season: 10-13-3, 9-11-2 WCHA (t-6th)
Last Season: 11-23-2 overall, 9-17-2 WCHA (t-8th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-25th
National Rankings: NR

Team Offense: 2.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.96 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.9% (18 of 113)
Penalty Kill: 81.0% (94 of 116)

Key Players: Senior F Tommy Grant (10-13-23), Freshman F Matt Bailey (8-9-17), Freshman F Jordan Kwas (4-13-17), Junior D Curtis Leinweber (4-6-10), Senior D Luka Vidmar (1-8-9), Freshman G Rob Gunderson (6-10-2, 2.72 GAA, .896 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 173-91-26, .641)

This Season: 19-8-2, 14-6-0 WCHA (3rd)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-5th
National Rankings: #5/#5

Team Offense: 3.66 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.48 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.3% (31 of 153)
Penalty Kill: 84.2% (117 of 139)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (21-10-31), Senior F Brad Malone (9-16-25), Sophomore F Corban Knight (12-16-28), Senior F Evan Trupp (11-14-25), Senior F/D Jake Marto (4-6-10), Junior D Ben Blood (1-5-6), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (18-6-1, 2.07 GAA, .918 SV%, 4 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: October 8, 2010 (Anchorage, AK). Midway through the 2nd period at the Kendall Hockey Classic, North Dakota led 5-1. Eight minutes later, the Seawolves were within one. Anchorage got the equalizer early in the 3rd and the game ended 5-5.

Last meeting in Grand Forks: November 15, 2008. UND used two power play goals and a shorthanded marker to defeat the visiting Seawolves, 3-1. UAA won Friday’s opener, 3-2, collecting just their third ever victory in Grand Forks,

Most Important Meeting: March 19, 2004 (St. Paul, MN). The Fighting Sioux and Seawolves met in the semifinal round of the WCHA Final Five, and UND cruised to the championship game with a 4-2 victory.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 40-17-4 (.689) including a 24-3-3 (.850) record in games played in Grand Forks. The Fighting Sioux have only lost twice in the last eleven meetings between the teams (7-2-2), with three of those games going to overtime.

Game News and Notes

The Seawolves are one victory away from matching their win total from all of last season. Sioux junior forward Jason Gregoire has eight points (six goals, two assists) in six games since returning from injury on January 14th. UND’s Chay Genoway (lower-body injury) and Danny Kristo (frostbite) will miss this weekend’s action. Sioux forward Taylor Dickin will see his first action of the season.

The Prediction

This feels like a Friday breakout for North Dakota. In Saturday’s rematch, the Seawolves will limit penalties and scoring opportunities but will fall just short of a victory. UND 6-2, 2-1.

Weekend Preview: UND at Colorado College

North Dakota fans might not remember that Colorado College is still a member of the WCHA.

When the league expanded to 12 teams (adding Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha), the unbalanced schedule was tweaked once again, meaning that, outside of St. Cloud State, the Fighting Sioux would host the other conference teams three out of every five seasons.

Despite playing only a two-game road series in 2009-10, North Dakota has only two games scheduled against the Tigers this season, and, you guessed it, the games are in Colorado Springs.

To put this in perspective: the last time Colorado College played at Ralph Engelstad Arena was March 1, 2009. Since that game, UND has hosted Minnesota at REA seven times.

So here’s a Colorado College primer for you: They haven’t made the national tournament since 2008 and haven’t won as much as a game at the WCHA Final Five or the NCAAs since 2005. Their best player (forward Jaden Schwartz; 11-15-26 in 17 games) is out with an injury, and the Tigers don’t have the goaltending that fans have become accustomed to (Joe Howe is no Bachmann, Zaba, or McElhinney). In short, CC’s advantage is more altitude than attitude.

The road doesn’t get any easier for Scott Owen’s club. After this weekend’s action against North Dakota, the Tigers have a home and home with Denver and road trips to Bemidji State and Wisconsin sandwiched around home series against MSU-Mankato and Minnesota-Duluth.

For North Dakota, it’s time to pick up points and secure home ice. After returning from Colorado Springs, the Green and White host Alaska-Anchorage and Bemidji State and travel to St. Cloud State and Michigan Tech to round out the regular season.

Sioux forward Jason Gregoire has been key since returning to the lineup, potting four goals against Nebraska-Omaha and Minnesota after missing seven games due to injury.

On the special teams side of things, the Tigers don’t take many penalties and they are clipping along at nearly 24 percent on the power play. On the wide sheet, this could be problematic for UND.

Colorado College Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Owens (12th season at CC, 272-161-39, .618)
This Season: 14-11-1 Overall, 8-8-0 WCHA (t-6th)
Last Season: 19-17-3 Overall, 12-13-3 WCHA (6th)

Pairwise Ranking: t-18th
National Rankings: #20/NR

Team Offense: 3.42 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.77 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.6% (37 of 157)
Penalty Kill: 85.5% (94 of 110)

Key Players: Sophomore F Rylan Schwartz (6-21-27), Senior F Tyler Johnson (16-12-28), Senior F Stephen Schultz (12-16-28), Junior D Gabe Guentzel (4-13-17), Senior D Ryan Lowery (1-12-13), Sophomore G Joe Howe (11-9-1, 2.70 GAA, .908 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 173-91-26, .641)
This Season: 18-7-2, 13-5-0 WCHA (t-2nd)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)

Pairwise Ranking: t-2nd
National Rankings: #4/#5

Team Offense: 3.63 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.52 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.8% (30 of 144)
Penalty Kill: 83.7% (108 of 129)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (20-10-30), Senior F Brad Malone (9-15-24), Sophomore F Corban Knight (12-15-27), Senior F Evan Trupp (11-13-24), Senior D Chay Genoway (6-19-25), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-9-9), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (17-5-1, 2.07 GAA, .916 SV%, 3 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: February 27, 2010 (Colorado Springs, CO). North Dakota defeated the Tigers 3-2 to complete the road sweep and clinch home ice for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. UND won Friday’s opener in overtime by the identical score.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1997. UND defeated Colorado College, 6-2, in the Frozen Four Semifinals in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Two nights later, North Dakota downed Boston University, 6-4, to claim its sixth NCAA Championship. North Dakota and Colorado College also met in the 2001 East Regional (Worcester, Mass.), with UND prevailing, 4-1.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 134-75-10 (.635), although the Tigers hold a 55-47-4 (.538) edge in games played in Colorado Springs. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 7-2-1 (.750) in the last ten meetings between the teams.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota junior forward Jason Gregoire has five points (4 goals, 1 assist) in his last four games since returning from injury. Remarkably, Colorado College is scoring almost a half-point per game more without Jaden Schwartz in the lineup. Most of that is due to the fact that Alabama-Huntsville was on the schedule. With at least two points this weekend, UND can leapfrog idle Denver and recapture first place in the league standings. North Dakota is 8-3-1 on the road this season, including WCHA sweeps at Bemidji State, MSU-Mankato, and Wisconsin.

The Prediction

It’s difficult to predict games between teams who haven’t played each other much lately. If history is any indication, this weekend’s action will be quick and entertaining. I can’t see North Dakota sweeping at Colorado College two years in a row, so I’ll call it a split. UND 3-2, CC 4-3.

Trivia

Brad Malone is the seventh Sioux player to amass over 300 career penalty minutes. Who are the other six?

Please leave your comments and trivia guesses below. As always, I thank you for reading.

Weekend Preview: North Dakota vs. Nebraska-Omaha

It might very well be a tale of two halves for Nebraska-Omaha. In the first two months of the season, Dean Blais’ squad went 8-1-0, outscoring opponents 40-20 and looking very much like a contender for a #1 seed in the NCAA‘s. Since that time, the Mavs are 4-7-2 and on the bubble to make the national tournament.

As expected, UNO is playing very well at home and found some early success on the road as well, winning four of their first five games away from Omaha. Since November 13th, the Mavericks have only one road victory (1-5-1).

Currently fourth in the WCHA standings, the Mavs will have to improve in order to secure home ice for the first round of the playoffs. After North Dakota, UNO plays Wisconsin, Denver, and Duluth in the second half of the season and points will be hard to come by.

North Dakota is coming off of an intense series split gainst Minnesota and now will host Nebraska-Omaha’s first ever visit to Ralph Engelstad Arena. I don’t expect the Mavs to be wide-eyed or starstruck on Friday night, as Blais will have his team prepared to win a hockey game.

Special teams will be a factor once again this weekend. UND is currently a +11 in combined power play/penalty kill, while UNO sits dead even, having scored AND allowed 18 power play goals this season.

The Fighting Sioux got a big boost last weekend when junior forward Jason Gregoire returned to the lineup. North Dakota looks to be reasonably healthy for the first time in six weeks.

Nebraska-Omaha Team Profile

Head Coach: Dean Blais (2nd season at UNO, 32-24-8, .563)

This Season: 12-8-2, 9-5-2 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 20-16-6, 13-12-3 CCHA (6th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-14th
National Rankings: #16/#15

Team Offense: 3.32 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.55 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.2% (18 of 89)
Penalty Kill: 83.3% (90 of 108)

Key Players: Senior F Rich Purslow (6-13-19), Senior F Matt Ambroz (13-11-24), Senior F Joey Martin (5-17-22), Freshman F Matt White (9-6-15), Senior D Eric Olimb (1-15-16), Sophomore D Bryce Aneloski (2-6-8), Junior G John Faulkner (12-7-2, 2.47 GAA, .912 SV%, 4 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 172-90-26, .642)

This Season: 17-6-2, 12-4-0 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Pairwise Ranking: t-2nd
National Rankings: #2/#2

Team Offense: 3.60 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.32 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.3% (27 of 127)
Penalty Kill: 86.4% (102 of 118)

Key Players: Senior F Matt Frattin (20-9-29), Senior F Brad Malone (9-14-23), Sophomore F Corban Knight (12-13-25), Senior F Evan Trupp (9-13-22), Senior D Chay Genoway (4-19-23), Freshman D Derek Forbort (0-9-9), Sophomore G Aaron Dell (16-5-1, 1.93 GAA, .922 SV%, 3 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: Saturday, November 20th (Omaha, Nebraska). UNO shocked North Dakota by scoring the game’s only goal in the final second of regulation. John Faulkner made 30 saves for the Mavs. UND won Friday’s opener, 6-5.

Most important meeting: Since the two teams have only met twice (and the series is tied at one game a piece), I will call Friday’s opener the most important meeting between the schools.

Game News and Notes

Nebraska-Omaha took only one point from four WCHA games against Bemidji State (0-3-1). UND forward Matt Frattin leads the nation with 20 goals while goaltender Aaron Dell is fifth in the country with a 1.93 goals-against average. Mavericks’ head coach Dean Blais has 294 career collegiate coaching victories. After this two-game road trip at North Dakota, UNO will be at home for the next six games (Alabama-Huntsville, St. Cloud State, Wisconsin).

The Prediction

North Dakota is deeper and is gettng great goaltending, but it is very difficult to outwork a Dean Blais team for two consecutive nights. I have a feeling that UNO will pull out at least one point this weekend. UND 3-2, 3-3 tie.