Final PWR rankings predictions

I did some number-crunching on the remaining games and came up with the following possible PairWise Ranking (PWR) finishes after next weekend’s conference tournaments. The PWR mimics the NCAA tournament selection process, so teams above 13-14 are quite likely to make the NCAA tournament (depending on how many autobids go to teams that otherwise would not have received a bid). More information on the tournament selection process is available in CHN’s tournament primer.

UND PWR Possibilities

The Sioux, currently #2 in the PairWise Rankings, have limited potential to move. It appears that UND will finish with either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd overall PWR. Those results are heavily dependent on Yale, UND’s own performance, Boston College, and Merrimack. In a couple low probability situations other factors come into play, but for the most part those are the teams to watch.

  • If Yale defeats Colgate, UND can only finish from #2 to #3…
    • …and if UND wins the Final Five, the Sioux will be #2 overall.
    • …and if BC loses to Northeastern, the Sioux will be #2 overall.
    • …and if BC defeats Northeastern and UND loses a Final Five game, about 1/2 the scenarios result in UND finishing #3 overall (the outcome of BC’s remaining game is very important, but not definitive).
  • If Yale loses to Colgate, UND can finish from #1 to #3…
    • …and if UND wins the Final Five, about 99% of scenarios result in UND being #1 overall.
    • …and Merrimack and BC losing become associated with high finishes for UND…
      • …and if both lose their opening game, UND finishes #1 in 95-98% of scenarios (#2 otherwise).
      • …and if both win their opening game, UND finishes #1 if they win the Final Five, finishes #3 over 99% of the time otherwise (#2 possible but pretty unlikely).

Top 20 PWR Possibilities

Who’s making the NCAA tournament?

  • The top 9 seem a lock: Yale, North Dakota, Boston College, Michigan, Miami, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Merrimack, Union
  • The next 3 could miss with the wrong loss(es): Notre Dame, New Hampshire, Western Michigan
  • 7 of the next 8 are still alive, but need help outside their control (or to win an autobid): Nebraska-Omaha, Colorado College, Dartmouth, Rennselaer, Boston University, Maine, Alaska Anchorage
  • Minnesota seems out

What will the final PWR be?

Team PWR Overall Lose all remaining Win all remaining
Possible
Final
PWR
Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR
Possible
Final
PWR
Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR
Possible
Final
PWR
Likely (>1%)
Final
PWR
Yale 1 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 1
North Dakota 2 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 3 1 to 2 1 to 2
Boston College 3 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 4 1 to 3 1 to 3
Michigan 4 2 to 11 3 to 11 6 to 11 6 to 11 2 to 5 3 to 5
Miami 5 3 to 11 3 to 11 5 to 11 6 to 11 3 to 4 3 to 4
Denver 6 4 to 11 4 to 9 5 to 11 5 to 9 4 to 6 4 to 6
Minnesota-Duluth 7 4 to 11 4 to 11 7 to 11 8 to 11 4 to 6 4 to 6
Merrimack 8 4 to 11 4 to 11 6 to 11 7 to 11 4 to 6 4 to 6
Union 9 5 to 11 6 to 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Notre Dame 10 4 to 15 4 to 14 10 to 15 10 to 14 4 to 8 4 to 8
New Hampshire 11 4 to 15 5 to 14 10 to 15 10 to 14 4 to 11 5 to 11
Western Michigan 12 10 to 19 10 to 19 13 to 19 14 to 19 10 to 13 10 to 13
Nebraska-Omaha 13 12 to 16 12 to 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Colorado College 14 10 to 19 10 to 18 12 to 19 15 to 18 10 to 15 10 to 15
Dartmouth 15 10 to 22 11 to 21 18 to 22 18 to 21 10 to 15 11 to 14
Rensselaer 16 10 to 19 11 to 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Boston University 17 13 to 19 14 to 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Maine 18 13 to 21 15 to 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Minnesota 19 17 to 21 18 to 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Alaska Anchorage 20 12 to 23 12 to 22 19 to 23 19 to 22 12 to 16 12 to 16
St. Cloud State 21 19 to 26 20 to 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Alaska 22 22 to 28 22 to 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A

PWR rankings assume RPI as a tie-breaker.

Notes

Due to the unusually massive volume of data in this post and timeliness of this information, I didn’t get to do nearly as much quality control and verification as I normally would like. If you see any obvious transcription errors, or have found scenarios that fall outside these boundaries, let me know in the comments!

Also, if there are outcomes for which you’d like to scenario, just let me know and I’ll give you the game results that you can pop into the You Are The Committee calculators.

Resources

  • jimdahl

    Someone asked via email how UNO could be left out.

    The share of scenarios that have UNO finish with each PWR ranking are:
    #12 4%
    #13 31%
    #14 33%
    #15 26%
    #16 5%

    The things that seem to hurt UNO the most, pushing them to the lower rankings, are: CC winning, Western Michigan winning, and Dartmouth winning.

    If UNO finishes #16, they’re out (because the AHA autoqualifier will make the tournament, so only the top 15 in PWR would stand a chance of an at-large bid). If UNO finishes #15, they need none of the other conferences to be won by a team that won’t be in the top 16 (e.g. Bemidji St, Northeastern, or Cornell/Colgate). If UNO finishes #14, they need zero or one of the other conferences to be won by a team not in the top 16, etc…

    Here’s a bracket (tested on USCHO) that has the minimum one autobid from outside the top 16, but UNO at #16 in the PWR so left out:

    Atlantic Hockey

    * Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Air Force
    * Semifinal #1: Connecticut defeats RIT
    * Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut

    CCHA

    * Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Miami
    * Semifinal #1: Western Michigan defeats Michigan
    * Championship game: Western Michigan defeats Notre Dame
    * Consolation game: Miami defeats Michigan

    ECAC

    * Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Cornell
    * Semifinal #1: Colgate defeats Yale
    * Championship game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate
    * Consolation game: Cornell defeats Yale

    Hockey East

    * Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Merrimack
    * Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Northeastern
    * Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire

    WCHA

    * Play-in #2: Bemidji State defeats Minnesota-Duluth
    * Play-in #1: Colorado College defeats Alaska-Anchorage
    * Semifinal #2: Bemidji State defeats Denver
    * Semifinal #1: Colorado College defeats North Dakota
    * Championship game: Colorado College defeats Bemidji State

  • jimdahl

    Thanks to RHamilton on USCHO who pointed out that I wasn’t allowing for ties in the consolation games. Ties could enable UNH to climb as high as #4 and Maine to fall as low as #21. The table has been updated to that effect.