Sioux Sports Talk

It’s been a tale of two seasons for both of these teams.

Bemidji State began the season as road warriors and stumbled to a 1-6-0 record while allowing 4.5 goals per game. Since then, the Beavers have won seven of nine games and have tightened up defensively, only allowing 1.66 goals/game in that span.

North Dakota’s success has coincided with the elevated play of Brad Eidsness. The freshman netminder is 6-4-1 with a 2.19 goals-against average and .925 save percentage in his last 12 games, although the Fighting Sioux are still stinging from a pair of 2-1 losses (to Michigan State and Michigan Tech) at last weekend’s Great Lakes Invitational.

UND’s 3-5-0 mark in non-conference play has many wondering how much of a second-half surge it will take for North Dakota to make their seventh straight NCAA tournament appearance. It is entirely possible that the Fighting Sioux will have to win the WCHA Final Five to advance to the national tournament.

Special teams will be key in this weekend’s home and home series. Both teams boast potent power plays (BSU 15.9%, UND 18.9%) and mediocre penalty killing units (BSU 84.0%, UND 83.2%). The difference has been the number of opportunities each team has earned this season. The Beavers have a minus-12 disparity in special teams situations (88 power plays, 100 penalty kills), while the Fighting Sioux have been plus-30 (143 power plays, 113 penalty kills). Whichever team comes out ahead in the special teams battle has a decided edge this weekend.

Bemidji State Team Profile

Head Coach: Tom Serratore (8th season at BSU, 128-110-28, .534)
This Season: 8-8-0 Overall, 4-2-0 CHA (1st)
National Rankings: NR/NR
Team Offense: 2.44 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.94 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.9% (14 of 88)
Penalty Kill: 84.0% (84 of 100)
Last Season: 17-16-3 Overall, 13-4-3 CHA (1st)
Key Players: Sophomore F Matt Read (5-8-13), Senior F Brandon Marino (3-8-11), Senior F Tyler Scofield (6-4-10), Freshman F Brad Hunt (3-8-11), Senior F Cody Bostock (3-6-9), Sophomore G Matt Dalton (8-5-0, .906 SV%, 2.47 GAA)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 115-66-16, .624)
This Season: 9-10-1 Overall, 6-5-1 WCHA (9th)
National Ranking: #18/NR
Team Offense: 3.10 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.95 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.9% (27 of 143)
Penalty Kill: 83.2% (94 of 113)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (7-8-15), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (4-8-12), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-15-19), Senior F Ryan Martens (7-7-14), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-17-19), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (9-7-1, 2.64 GAA, .910 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: February 24th, 2008 (Grand Forks, ND). UND backup goalie Aaron Walski earned a shutout (13 saves) in his first career start and T.J. Oshie made a brilliant play behind the net to feed Andrew Kozek’s game-winner with under five minutes to play as North Dakota prevailed 1-0 to complete the weekend sweep of the visiting Beavers. Bemidji State backup goaltender Orlando Alamano made 31 saves in a losing effort.
Last Meeting in Bemidji: January 19, 2007. North Dakota saw its two-goal lead evaporate early in the third period, but Erik Fabian notched the game-winner with under four minutes to play as the Fighting Sioux downed the homestanding Beavers 3-2.
Most Important Meeting: I’ll give the nod to February 7, 1970 (Grand Forks, ND). Bemidji outgunned North Dakota 7-5 to claim its only victory in the all-time series. The Sioux and Beavers have never met in post-season action of any kind.
All-time Series: The Fighting Sioux have dominated the all-time series, going 13-1-1 (.900) against the Beavers. UND has won every game played in Bemidji (4-0-0) and has not lost a game to Bemidji State since the Beavers moved up to Division I (12-0-1).

Game News and Notes

UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in seventeen consecutive games (including sixteen starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Aaron Schweitzer, who played in the last 18 games of UND’s 1996-97 championship campaign. Sophomore goaltender Matt Dalton (8-5-0) is expected to start tonight’s opener for Bemidji State, with senior goaltender Orlando Alamano (0-3-0) getting the nod on Saturday. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 23rd on the UND career scoring list. Duncan has notched 148 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 20 all-time with six more points this season. Bemidji State senior captain Travis Winter (76 career points in 106 games) will return to the lineup this weekend after being sidelined for much of the first half with a groin injury. Only six current Sioux players (Ryan Duncan, Andrew Kozek, Derrick LaPoint, Brad Miller, Chris VandeVelde, and Matt Watkins) have notched points against Bemidji State.

The Prediction

Despite UND’s dominance in the series, recent games between the Sioux and Beavers have been tightly contested and evenly matched. If Bemidji gets up by a couple of goals at home, it could be lights out for North Dakota’s sputtering offense. Look for UND to take three points this weekend. 2-2 Tie, UND 3-2.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

People who follow the PWR (PairWise Rankings) now know intuitively that getting swept at the GLI was particularly harmful to UND’s PWR (and NCAA tournament) chances, but for the first time ever anywhere, we can try to quantify how harmful.

The surprising bottom line — UND’s chances of getting a top 15 ranking in the PWR are now only about 1/3 to 1/4 what they would have been if UND had instead swept this tournament.

Without further ado, as simulated by the new PairWise Ranking Predictor, here are the distributions of UNDs PWR chances with the actual outcome of the Great Lakes Invitational vs if UND had swept.

Using KRACH to predict the outcomes of unfinished games, UND now stands under a 5% chance of ending the regular season in the top 15 of the PWR.  Had UND swept the GLI, the Sioux would have instead stood over a 20% chance.

A few words about the chart — the horizontal axis is the desired PWR ranking (1 good, 25 bad), the vertical axis is the cumulative probability of achieving the corresponding PWR ranking, the green line represents UND’s actual chances as of today, the blue line what UND’s chances would have been with a sweep.  Note that the KRACH probabilities used to predict the outcomes of remaining games are the same for both — the current KRACH ratings that incorporate being swept.

But wait, Jim, you say… using KRACH to predict the probabilities just extends how teams have performed to date through the end of the season.  The mid-season KRACH last year would have also predicted doom and gloom for the Sioux.  While that’s true, I’m using these predictions to point out how much the differential, how much the sweep hurt, not the actual levels (e.g. 5% chance of finishing top 15).  Nonetheless, another interesting way to look at it is what proportion of the possible remaining outcomes land the Sioux in each PWR ranking.  That can be somewhat answered with a similar simulation that makes the outcomes of each game random (50% win, 50% lose) rather than with probabilities determined by KRACH.

Though a random draw looks better for the Sioux than the KRACH predictions, UND’s chances of a top 15 PWR were harmed even more from comprising 50% of possible remaining scenarios to 15%.  Note further that the number of potential outcomes that even land the Sioux as a TUC fell from nearly 80% to 50%.

A few extra notes for the geeks — the simulations were Monte Carlos with 1,000,000 trials per scenario.  While I didn’t do formal sensitivity analysis, a few runs of one demonstrated that results for each potential ranking were generally within .001%, so I’m pretty happy with 1,000,000 trials.

Halloween night…the spookiest night of the year. But for the Michigan State Spartans, the two months since Halloween have been terrifying. MSU has not won since October 31st, going 0-9-2 in that span and also losing 4-2 to the US Under 18 team in exhibition action. The Spartans scored two or fewer goals in 10 of those 12 games and bring a season record of 4-11-3 into the 44th annual Great Lakes Invitational.

It’s been a mixed bag of tricks and treats for the Fighting Sioux in that span. North Dakota beat Wisconsin 3-2 on Halloween night in Grand Forks, and have gone 7-5-1 since that victory. UND has not lost in December (4-0-0 in sweeps of Harvard and St. Cloud State) and now has an overall record of 9-8-1. These next two weekends will mark the final four non-conference games for the Green and White, and provide an excellent opportunity to improve on a 3-3-0 non-conference record and position for the NCAA tournament.

The winner of this matchup will face Michigan or Michigan Tech in Sunday’s championship game at Joe Louis Arena. North Dakota has captured the GLI championship in two of its previous three tournament appearances.

Michigan State Team Profile

Head Coach: Rick Comley (7th season at MSU, 146-96-27, .593)
This Season: 4-11-3 Overall, 2-8-2-2 CCHA (12th)
National Rankings: NR/NR
Team Offense: 1.61 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 10.7% (9 of 84)
Penalty Kill: 87.6% (78 of 89)
Last Season: 25-12-5 Overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 19-6-3 CCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Matt Schepke (7-3-10), Senior F Tim Crowder (3-7-10), Sophomore D Jeff Petry (1-6-7), Senior G Jeff Lerg (3-10-1, 2.88 GAA, .912 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 115-64-16, .631)
This Season: 9-8-1 Overall, 6-5-1 WCHA (9th)
National Ranking: #18/NR
Team Offense: 3.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.06 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.7% (26 of 132)
Penalty Kill: 82.5% (85 of 103)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (7-8-15), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (4-7-11), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-14-18), Senior F Ryan Martens (7-7-14), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-16-18), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (9-5-1, 2.72 GAA, .909 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 13, 2007 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota blitzed the defending national champions 6-0 in the US Hockey Hall of Fame Game.
Most Important Meeting: March 28. 1987 (Detroit, MI). The Hrkac Circus invaded Joe Louis Arena and took home North Dakota’s fifth national championship with a 5-3 victory over the Spartans.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 62-35-2 (.636), and holds a record of 6-3-0 in games played on neutral ice. North Dakota has won nine of the previous ten meetings between the schools.

Game News and Notes

UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in fifteen consecutive games (including fourteen starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Aaron Schweitzer, who played in the last 18 games of UND’s 1996-97 championship campaign. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 23rd on the UND career scoring list. Duncan has notched 148 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 20 all-time with six more points this season.

The Prediction

This looks like a walk-over for North Dakota, but Michigan State is a proud program with a veteran coach, a seasoned goaltender, and a home crowd advantage. I expect this game to be close until the third, when the Fighting Sioux will break it open. UND 5-2.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

North Dakota headed into the Christmas break on a good note, sweeping the St. Cloud State Huskies 3-2 and 7-4 in a pair of WCHA games at Ralph Engelstad Arena.  Sioux goaltender Brad Eidsness notched both victories to run his season record to 9-5-1.

With the sweep, North Dakota (9-8-1, 6-5-1 WCHA) found itself above .500 for the first time all season and returned to the top 20 in the national rankings.  UND entered the weekend in ninth place in the conference and found themselves all alone in sixth place after downing the Huskies.  The Fighting Sioux are actually in good position for an upper division finish in the league, as they have played two fewer games than most of the teams above them in the standings.

In short, a 6-2-1 stretch has righted the ship after a 3-6-0 start had the green and white in an early hole.

There are many reasons why North Dakota has found more success lately, but I will point to two:

Goaltending.  Since replacing Aaron Walksi midway through a November 14th game against Alaska-Anchorage, SIoux freshman Brad Eidsness has played every minute.  In that ten game stretch, Eidsness is 6-2-1 with a goals-against average of 2.22 and a save percentage of .926.

Balanced scoring.  During that same stretch of games, North Dakota has outscored opponents 40-21.  Eighteen Sioux skaters have scored a goal in the past ten games, including nine players with multiple goals.  The key to UND’s success has been scoring across all four lines and contributions from defensemen.   Of course, North Dakota relies on their top line of Ryan Duncan, Andrew Kozek, and Chris VandeVelde, particularily on the power play.  But those three players have potted 6 goals in the past ten games, while Brett Hextall (4 goals), Matt Frattin (7 goals), David Toews (3 goals), and Ryan Martens (5 goals) have led the recent surge.

Senior forward Ryan Martens has collected 5 goals and 5 assists in the past ten games after notching just 4 goals and 15 assists in his first three seasons at North Dakota (58 games played). 

The top two offensive defenseman, Chay Genoway and Brad Miller, have combined for 4 goals and 24 assists in the past 10 games.  It is perhaps even more encouraging to see contributions from sophomore blueliners Derrick Lapoint and Jake Marto, who have notched 2 goals and 4 assists in the past four games. 

The scoring hasn’t just been balanced, it has been timely.  North Dakota never trailed in last weekend’s series against St. Cloud, and had an answer every time the Huskies got close.

In Saturday’s finale, Jake Marto scored a first period goal less than a minute after SCSU had tied the score at one.  In the second period, Brett Hextall notched the eventual game-winner less than four minutes after the Huskies had pulled to within 4-3.  And most importantly, David Toews potted a huge sixth goal just 42 seconds after St. Cloud had scored to make it 5-4.

Great goaltending, contributions from all parts of the lineup, and timely scoring are a recipe for a weekend sweep and continued success in the second half.

Thank you for reading.  I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

As I mentioned in my article about the Challenge Cup, the rivalry between these two schools has picked up since the WCHA made North Dakota and St. Cloud State schedule partners six seasons ago.

Both teams come into this series looking to make a move in the conference standings before the Christmas break. The Huskies (10-6-0, 5-5-0 WCHA) are currently tied for 7th place in the league race, while the Fighting Sioux (7-8-1, 4-5-1 WCHA) have been playing better of late but find themselves in 9th place. The conference standings are a bit misleading, as league leader Wisconsin (7-5-2 in the WCHA) has played four more conference games.

There are a number of players performing at an incredibly high level for each team. Sioux freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness (7-5-1, 2.68 GAA, .911 SV) has been rock-solid since replacing senior Aaron Walski midway through a November 14th game against Alaska-Anchorage. In the past eight games, Eidsness is 4-2-1 with a goals-against average of 2.01 and a save percentage of .933. North Dakota sophomore forward Matt Frattin has scored seven goals in his past seven games and freshman forward David Toews netted his first two career goals last weekend in a sweep at Harvard.

For the Huskies, it’s Roe, Roe, Roe. The sophomore forward has scored 9 goals and added 16 assists this season in only 16 games and is second in the nation in scoring. Senior forward John Swanson has tallied eight goals already this season, and St. Cloud is getting more than adequate goaltending from junior Jase Weslosky (8-5-0, 2.32 GAA, .926 SV).

By comparison, the top UND scorer is defenseman Chay Genoway. His 2 goals and 14 assists (in 15 games) are good for 34th place nationally. North Dakota’s top scoring forward is Brad Miller (4-11-15 in 14 games).

Just like much of last season, St. Cloud has struggled in close games, going 1-3-0 games decided by one goal this year.

This weekend, the two teams will be earning points for the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup, a traveling fan trophy awarded to the team which wins the four-game season series. The teams will square off in St. Cloud on January 30-31 in the final regular season meetings between the schools.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: Bob Motzko (4th season at SCSU, 73-49-16, .587)
This Season: 10-6-0 Overall, 5-5-0 WCHA (t-7th)
National Rankings: #17/#19
Team Offense: 3.69 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.38 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.7% (20 of 107)
Penalty Kill: 80.7% (71 of 88)
Last Season: 19-16-5 Overall (NCAA East Regional Semifinalist), 12-12-4 WCHA (4th)
Key Players: Sophomore F Garrett Roe (9-16-25), Senior F John Swanson (8-7-15), Junior F Ryan Lasch (2-13-15), Junior D Garrett Raboin (5-9-14), Junior G Jase Weslosky (8-5-0, 2.32 GAA, .926 SV, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 113-64-16, .627)
This Season: 7-8-1 Overall, 4-5-1 WCHA (9th)
National Ranking: NR
Team Offense: 3.12 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.06 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.5% (24 of 123)
Penalty Kill: 81.7% (76 of 93)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (6-8-14), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (3-7-10), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-11-15), Sophomore F Matt Frattin (7-3-10), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-14-16), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (7-5-1, 2.68 GAA, .911 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 8, 2008 (Grand Forks, ND). Husky forward Ryan Lasch scored a late power-play goal to salvage a 2-2 tie in the final regular season meeting between the two teams. UND and St. Cloud tied 1-1 in Friday’s opener.
Most Important Meeting: March 17, 2001 (St. Paul, MN). St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 47-26-10 (.627), and holds a record of 24-11-5 (.663) in games played in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in thirteen consecutive games (including twelve starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Aaron Schweitzer, who played in the last 18 games of UND’s 1996-97 championship campaign. Eidsness was named the WCHA Rookie of the Week for his two victories last weekend at Harvard. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 25th on the UND career scoring list. Duncan has notched 147 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 20 all-time with seven more points this season.

The Prediction

This will be a special teams battle all the way. Both teams score on the power play and give up power play goals at an alarming rate. North Dakota will need to strike a balance between playing a physical brand of hockey and staying out of the penalty box. UND 4-3, 3-3 tie.

On a Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of SiouxSports.com, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Southgate Grill and Bar. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions. Check back after the games for reaction, news, and commentary.

Another slow start for the Sioux hockey team has led to inevitable comparisons with years past. But there’s a feeling among some that key losses have led to a deeper hole this year that will be more difficult to climb out of with a second half surge.

2008 start vs past seasons

Season	PWR	RPI	Win%	KRACH	Out of Conference Games
2008-12-08	n/a	#26 (.5124)	.4688	#22	L – Boston Univ. L – Massachusetts W/L – Cornell W/W – Harvard
2007-12-10	#7	#8 (.5689)	.5667	#6	W – Michigan St. T – Boston Coll. W – Northeastern
End of 07-08 reg. season	#4	.5866	.7143
2006-12-11	#20	#22 (.5251)	.4688	#13	W/W – Quinnipiac L/L – Maine
End of 06-07 reg. season	#6	.5497	.5972
2005-12-12	#17	#15 (.5327)	.5833	#13	W – Miami L – Michigan St. W/W – Northeastern W/T – New Hampshire
End of 05-06 reg. season	#12	.5475	.6220

This seems to be UND’s worst start in the past four years. The Sioux have a win% equal to the previous low for this point in a season — 2006-07. UND’s RPI this year is lower than it was 2006-07, and KRACH rates the Sioux as a significantly less competitive team than they were at this point that season.

However, that season did include two early losses vs. Hockey East (both to Maine), and a PWR ranking of #20 at this point in this season. The Sioux rallied by the end of that regular season to finish #6 in the PWR, demonstrating that it is possible to climb out from such a hole.

Chart of UND’s 2006-07 PWR comeback

Can the Sioux still make the NCAA tournament?

In short, yes. Over half the season remains to be played! The rest of this post will look at the impact of the season to date on contributors to the PWR and future opportunities to influence contributors to the PWR. It is not meant to encourage anyone to worry much about UND’s current position in the PWR, which is quite meaningless.

Winning percentage

As an upper bound to the potential for a turnaround, consider Spring of 2008 in which the Sioux posted an amazing 18 game undefeated streak, never losing from January 5 until the playoffs. Taking the 2007-08 record over their last 22 games (16-3-3) and adding it to this year’s tally (7-8-1) would result in a final record of 23-11-4.

That would give the Sioux a regular season win percentage of .6579.

RPI

Assuming UND’s past and future opponents remain of constant quality until the end of the season, UND’s RPI from a win percentage of .6579 should be about .56. That would place UND at #11 on the current RPI chart. See other RPI scenarios under “Future RPI” on the North Dakota Hockey RPI Details page. If, instead, UND won about 13 of its remaining 21 games*, it would end the season with a win percentage of .5541 and an RPI of about .5356, currently good for 20th in the NCAA.

*That page shows only 21 remaining games for UND, though there will certainly be a 22nd, because the second opponent for the Great Lakes Invitational is not yet known.

PWR components

If the season ended today, UND wouldn’t be a TUC because it’s not in the top 25 of RPI, so would not be ranked in the PWR.

Current record vs. TUCs: 4-7-1
Remaining games vs. current TUCs: 14 (Minnesota 2, Denver 2, St Cloud St 4, Wisconsin 2, Colorado College 2, Mankato 2)

UND’s non-conference losses to Hockey East teams will hurt its COP comparisons to Hockey East teams, though UND has ample opportunity to shore up its COP comparisons to Western teams. UND has a large part of its WCHA schedule ahead of it; the Great Lakes Invititational (including Michigan St. and potentially Michigan) will position UND vs. the CCHA.

If UND averaged .600 for the rest of the season (RPI of about .5356 #20), it would result in a TUC of 12-13-1 (if that percentage is applied across TUCs); .800 (RPI of about .56 #11), would result in a TUC of 15-10-1 (ceteris paribus), and position UND well for H2H and COP comparisons with WCHA teams.

Tournaments

Of course, UND’s opportunities don’t end with the regular season. Every team in the WCHA gets at least two WCHA Final Five play-in games. All-in-all, the Final Five could add up to six games to UND’s schedule. Finally, winning the tournament would guarantee an NCAA tournament berth, regardless of previous performance.

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its scheduling system, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season (and play the other schools twice one season, four times the next, and so on). Minnesota and Wisconsin were paired up, as were Colorado College and Denver. All four of those schools, and particularly Minnesota and Wisconsin, would have made excellent schedule partners for UND.

And which of the remaining teams would become North Dakota’s schedule partner? Alaska-Anchorage? Mankato? No, as the two newest members of the WCHA (1993 and 1999, respectively), the Seawolves and Mavericks were paired with each other. How about Minnesota-Duluth or Michigan Tech, schools which had been members of the conference for over 35 years? No again. Those two schools are just over 200 miles apart, and that was certainly a factor in the decision.

That left St. Cloud State, a familiar foe for Sioux fans from North Central Conference football and basketball games. The St. Cloud State Huskies had been a Division I hockey program for 15 years (and a WCHA member for 12) before the 2002-03 season, and had posted a 83-34-6 (.699) record over the previous three seasons. By contrast, from 1999-02, UND held a record of 76-35-16 (.654).

The two schools had played a handful of meaningful games in the past. In 1991 (St. Cloud’s first in the league), the Huskies and Sioux met in Grand Forks for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. St. Cloud took the opener, 4-2, before falling 10-2 and 7-4 in games 2 and 3. The two teams met in the 1998 and 2000 WCHA Final Five semifinal games, with North Dakota prevailing in both contests. Perhaps the best reason to be optimistic about the rivalry was the 2001 WCHA Final Five championship game, a hard-fought contest which St. Cloud State won on Derek Eastman’s overtime winner.

It’s fair to say that in 2002 there was confusion AND cautious optimism surrounding the potential rivalry between the two teams. (And on a personal note, I had already traveled to St. Cloud for the Sioux/Husky games four times before the rivalry announcement was made, and I was more than pleased that I would now be able to make this trip every year.)

It’s also fair to say that the rivalry has caught on over the past six seasons. The two teams have played eight overtime contests in their 26 regular-season meetings, and points are tough to come by, at home and on the road. The fans have also made their mark on the partnership between the schools, as the UND/SCSU rivalry now has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

After sputtering to a 5-8-1 record through the first two months of the season, North Dakota flew into Cambridge, swept the Harvard Crimson, evened its non-conference record at 3-3-0, and served notice that the Fighting Sioux may have turned the corner.

This weekend saw UND sweep an opponent for the first time all season. Last year’s 2007-08 team earned its first sweep on January 11th and 12th against Michigan Tech. That home sweep ignited an 18-game unbeaten streak for the Fighting Sioux (15-0-3) and a trip to the Frozen Four.

Tonight’s game was the close contest that many of us anticipated. Harvard led 3-2 early in the third period before freshman forward David Toews tied the game with 14:00 to play and sophomore forward Matt Frattin gave UND the lead for good just 90 seconds later. Frattin has scored seven goals in his last seven games.

Because the final score read North Dakota 4, Harvard 3, it may seem like a completely different game from UND’s 10-1 blitzing a day earlier. But North Dakota used the same formula to complete the sweep: solid special teams play and spectacular goaltending.

The Fighting Sioux scored three power play goals in five opportunities and held Harvard to two tallies on eight chances. UND freshman netminder Brad Eidsness was at his best when North Dakota needed him the most, turning aside all six Crimson shots while killing off Chris VandeVelde’s major penalty in the first period.

Since replacing Aaron Walski midway through the November 14th game against Alaska-Anchorage, Brad Eidsness is 4-2-1 with a 2.01 goal-against average and a .933 save percentage.

For the weekend, UND went 7 for 14 with the man advantage (raising their season power-play percentage to 19.5) and killed 11 of 13 Harvard power plays.

An encouraging sign for North Dakota is the balanced score sheet. Seven Sioux players are scoring a half-point per game or more, led by defensemen Chay Genoway (2 goals and 14 assists) and Brad Miller (4 goals and 11 assists). Sioux forwards Ryan Duncan, Andrew Kozek, and Chris VandeVelde were expected to carry the scoring load up front, but Ryan Martens (5 goals, 6 assists) and Matt Frattin (7 goals, 3 assists) have been pleasant surprises.

Another key to UND’s success lately has been contributions from the freshman class. Highly touted recruits Brett Hextall, Jason Gregoire, and David Toews have totaled 11 goals and 10 assists in 43 games played this season. That’s a big step forward from last season’s top three freshmen forwards (Matt Frattin, Evan Trupp, and Brad Malone), who tallied 13 goals and 18 assists all season (109 games played).

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

Let the good times roll.

North Dakota rolled into Cambridge, Massachusetts and dominated every aspect of their opener against the Harvard Crimson, cruising to a 10-1 victory.

Where to begin?

The seven Sioux seniors in the lineup combined for seven goals and eleven assists. The all-senior line of Matt Watkins, Darcy Zajac, and Ryan Martens tallied four goals and six assists. And senior defenseman Zach Jones scored his first career goal in his 144th game at North Dakota.

Not to be outdone, Sioux freshman David Toews scored his first career goal and fellow frosh Corey Feinhage picked up his first career assist.

There are a couple of things that I would like to point out that often get overlooked in a game that appears as lopsided as this one does:

First off, Sioux goaltender Brad Eidsness stopped 39 of 40 shots he faced, including 20 of 21 in the second period alone. Coaches often say that a goalie has to be your best penalty killer, and Eidsness was that for North Dakota tonight. The freshman from Chestermere, Alberta turned aside all 13 of Harvard’s power play shots, including eight during a full two-minute 5 on 3 in the middle frame. Two minutes after the Sioux were back at full strength, Toews scored to make it 5-1 and the rout was on. For the game, North Dakota killed all five Harvard power plays.

With the impressive victory, Eidsness saw his season goals-against average drop to 2.65 and his save percentage rise to .910. Since taking over for Aaron Walski midway through the November 14th game versus Alaska-Anchorage, the freshman netminder has posted a record of 3-2-1 with a goals-against average of 1.85 and a save percentage of .936.

A second area that deserves a closer look is the faceoff circle. North Dakota owned the draws tonight, winning 45 out of 68 (66.2%). The top two centerman for UND, Darcy Zajac (18 of 22) and Chris VandeVelde (13 of 16) were particularly lethal. Winning faceoffs is critical, particularly in the offensive and defensive zones, and was a key to victory tonight.

In my weekend preview, I mentioned an area of emphasis for North Dakota:

North Dakota needs to find a way to score at even strength. The Fighting Sioux have scored 36 goals this season, but only 14 of them have come while the teams were skating 5 on 5. UND has struggled on the road (2-4-1), and has not won a game this season when scoring two or fewer goals (0-7-1).

Check and check. North Dakota scored six of its first seven goals at even strength and then followed that up with three late power play tallies. For the game, the Fighting Sioux scored its six even strength goals on 22 shots and went 4 for 9 on the power play (15 shots).

And I ended with this nugget of truth:

Call it a hunch, but I have a feeling that North Dakota will come out playing very well on Friday night. If the Fighting Sioux find success early, it could be a long weekend for Harvard.

I would say so. Chasing one goaltender is an accomplishment; chasing two (without an injury situation) is almost unheard of.

So where does that leave us for tomorrow night? If tonight’s third period is any indication, the Harvard Crimson did not take too kindly to being embarrassed on home ice. Expect a tighter, more physical contest in Saturday’s finale. The first period will once again be key. If North Dakota jumps out to the early lead again, it could reignite tempers and the parade to the penalty box. UND would love to get into a special teams battle again.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions. Check back after Saturday’s game for more reaction and commentary.

This weekend marks the halfway point for North Dakota’s non-conference schedule, and the Fighting Sioux have struggled to a 1-3-0 record outside of the WCHA. With a date with Michigan State on December 27th and a possible clash with Michigan the following night, this weekend’s games against the Harvard Crimson take on an added significance.

UND can look ahead and hope to sweep Bemidji State in a home-and-home non-conference series in January, but if they hope to make a splash in the NCAA tournament, they will need to pick up wins this weekend in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Harvard entered this season with two main question marks: scoring and goaltending.

And the freshmen will lead them.

Freshman phenom Alex Killorn is a Tampa Bay draft pick (#77 overall) who has adjusted quickly to the college game (2 goals and 6 assists in ten games). And fellow frosh Matt Hoyle has performed admirably between the pipes for the Crimson, posting a goals-against average of 2.09 and a save percentage of .929 while playing virtually every minute this season.

Harvard is undefeated at home this year (4-0-0), defeating ECAC opponents Dartmouth, Rensselaer, Clarkson, and St. Lawrence. The Crimson have finished games well, going 4-1-2 when leading or tied after two periods.

North Dakota needs to find a way to score at even strength. The Fighting Sioux have scored 36 goals this season, but only 14 of them have come while the teams were skating 5 on 5. UND has struggled on the road (2-4-1), and has not won a game this season when scoring two or fewer goals (0-7-1).

Harvard Team Profile

National Rankings: NR
Head Coach: Ted Donato (5th season at Harvard, 77-56-13, .572)
This Season: 4-4-2 Overall, 4-3-2 ECAC (t-2nd)
Team Offense: 2.30 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.10 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 16.4% (11 of 67)
Penalty Kill: 87.5% (63 of 72)
Last Season: 17-13-4 Overall, 12-7-3 ECAC (3rd)
Key Players: Freshman F Alex Killorn (2-6-8), Sophomore F Matt McCollum (3-3-6), Junior F Doug Rogers (0-4-4), Junior D Alex Biega (1-3-4) Senior D Brian McCafferty (1-3-4), Freshman G Matt Hoyle (4-4-2, .2.09 GAA, .929 SV, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 111-64-16, .623)
This Season: 5-8-1 Overall, 4-5-1 WCHA (t-7th)
National Ranking: NR
Team Offense: 2.57 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.21 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.6% (17 of 109)
Penalty Kill: 81.2% (65 of 80)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (5-6-11), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (3-6-9), Senior F/D Brad Miller (3-7-10), Freshman F Brett Hextall (5-2-7), Junior D Chay Genoway (1-13-14), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (5-5-1, 2.80 GAA, .902 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 30, 2005 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota earned a split with a 3-2 victory after the Crimson took Friday’s opener, 1-0.
Most Important Meeting: The Fighting Sioux and Harvard Crimson have met twice in the NCAA semifinals, with UND coming out on top in 1958 (9-1) and 1987 (5-2).
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 6-2-1 (.722). The two teams have never played in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Game News and Notes

Six current Sioux players appeared in the 2005 series against Harvard; none of the six (Duncan, Finley, Kozek, Martens, Miller, Watkins) registered a point on the weekend. UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in eleven consecutive games (including ten starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Aaron Schweitzer, who played in the last 18 games of UND’s 1996-97 championship campaign. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 27th on the UND career scoring list. Duncan has notched 144 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 25 all-time with two points this weekend. North Dakota sophomore forward Matt Frattin was named the WCHA Offensive Player of the Week after his hat trick helped the Fighting Sioux hand Cornell its first loss of the season last Friday. Frattin has now scored five goals in his last five games.

The Prediction

Call it a hunch, but I have a feeling that North Dakota will come out playing very well on Friday night. If the Fighting Sioux find success early, it could be a long weekend for Harvard. If UND struggles to solve Crimson net minder Matt Hoyle, Harvard could win a couple of close games. UND 4-1, 2-2 tie.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.