Weekend Preview: UND vs. Minnesota

When the Sioux and Gophers met in the second half of last season, Minnesota found themselves in sixth place in the WCHA, and North Dakota was riding high in second place. The Sioux were ranked third nationally, while the Gophers were squarely on the bubble for the NCAA tournament. UND took three of four points from the weekend series at Mariucci Arena and rode that momentum all the way to the Frozen Four.

This season, the roles are reversed. Minnesota (10-3-5) comes to town ranked #3 and sitting in second place in the conference. North Dakota (11-10-1) struggled in 2008 and desperately needs wins in the second half to make another tournament run.

All of the statistics point to Gopher domination. Minnesota has lost three games all season, while North Dakota has already posted double-digit losses. The Gophers boast the WCHA’s best goaltender, power play, and penalty kill.

But there are signs that the teams are closer than they may appear. On November 22nd, Minnesota suffered its first loss of the season. Since that game, the Gophers are 3-3-1. In that same span, North Dakota is 7-4-0. In the league standings, a Sioux sweep would put them in a tie with Minnesota.

All that being said, this weekend’s games are critical for league points, momentum, and the all-important Sioux-Gopher rivalry.

Minnesota Team Profile

Head Coach: Don Lucia (10th season at UMN, 249-116-43, .663)
This Season: 10-3-5 Overall, 7-2-3 WCHA (2nd)
National Rankings: #3/#3
PairWise Ranking: 8th
Team Offense: 3.28 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.28 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.9% (23 of 105)
Penalty Kill: 93.2% (96 of 103)
Last Season: 19-17-9 Overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 9-12-7 WCHA (7th)
Key Players: Junior F Ryan Stoa (11-12-23), Freshman F Jordan Schroeder (7-14-21), Junior F Jay Barriball (6-10-16), Sophomore D Cade Fairchild (3-11-14), Sophomore G Alex Kangas (10-3-5, 2.19 GAA, 921 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 117-66-16, .628)
This Season: 11-10-1 Overall, 6-5-1 WCHA (6th)
National Rankings: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: 22nd
Team Offense: 3.10 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.95 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.9% (27 of 143)
Penalty Kill: 83.2% (94 of 113)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (7-8-15), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (7-9-16), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-17-21), Senior F Ryan Martens (8-7-15), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-19-21), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (11-7-1, 2.68 GAA, .907 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: February 2, 2008 (Minneapolis, MN). The teams skated to a 1-1 tie after freshman Evan Trupp ended Friday’s opener with a spectacular overtime goal. Emotions ran high in both games, as the teams combined for 192 penalty minutes in the weekend series.
Last Meeting in Grand Forks: December 8, 2007. Minnesota held off a furious North Dakota comeback attempt for a thrilling 4-3 victory. The Fighting Sioux scored twice in the final four minutes to get within one, but Ben Gordon’s goal with two seconds remaining in the second period stood as the game-winner. In Friday’s opener, all six goals were scored in the third period and North Dakota came out on top, 4-2.
Most Important Meeting: March 24, 1979 (Detroit, MI). North Dakota and Minnesota met to decide the national championship, and the Gophers prevailed, 4-3.
All-time Series: Minnesota leads the all-time series, 130-122-12 (.515), but North Dakota holds a 64-53-7 (.544) advantage in games played in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota’s players and coaches are asking all fans to wear white for this weekend’s games against Minnesota. In an effort to minimize traffic and congestion at the arena, Gopher fans are asked to arrive at 10:37 p.m. UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in nineteen consecutive games (including eighteen starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Peter Waselovich, who played in a school-record 32 straight games during UND’s 1973-74 season. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 23rd on the UND career scoring list. Minnesota forwards Jordan Schroeder and Mike Hoeffel as well as defenseman Cade Fairchild will return to the Gopher lineup this weekend after representing the United States at the World Junior Championships. Duncan has notched 148 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 20 all-time with six more points this season. North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol will be behind the bench for his 200th game on Friday night. Minnesota head coach Don Lucia will miss this weekend’s games due to an undisclosed illness.

The Prediction

I expect the Gophers to roll in one game and for North Dakota to keep one game close. Special teams play will determine whether the Sioux can win the close game or settle for a tie. Minnesota 5-1, UND 3-2.

Thank you for reading. For reaction to Friday’s game, click here. For more on the rivalry between the Sioux and Gophers, click here.

Sioux/Gopher Week: Hockey Rivalries

Which team do you consider North Dakota’s biggest rival?

I have Minnesota at the top of my list, along with Boston College, Denver, Michigan and Wisconsin.

And what makes some rivalries so intense? For some of the above-mentioned schools, it’s conference affiliation. Minnesota, Denver, and Wisconsin are among the top teams battling it out with North Dakota for the WCHA title year after year. Familiarity breeds contempt, they say.

But why else? Why are Boston College and Michigan on my list? And why has Denver become such a bitter feud while Wisconsin, until last year, had cooled a bit? It all boils down to tournament time.

Since 1997, UND has met 13 different teams in NCAA action, and of those thirteen, only four (Michigan, Boston College, Ferris State, and Denver) have ended North Dakota’s season. The Fighting Sioux avenged a loss to Michigan in 1998 with playoff wins in 2006 and 2007, while Denver has had UND’s number, defeating the Sioux in 2004 and 2005. Ferris State bounced North Dakota from the 2003 tournament, and the eight tournament games between Boston College and UND (1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008) are well-documented.

The teams UND has defeated in NCAA play in that same span include Cornell (1997), Colorado College (1997, 2001), Boston University (1997, 2005), Niagara (2000), Maine (2000), Michigan State (2001), Holy Cross (2004, 2006), Princeton (2008), and Wisconsin (2008). These rivalries are not as intense as the schools listed above, and it is my opinion that it is because these schools have not ended UND’s season on the biggest stage that they are not regarded as such.

Until last year’s thrilling overtime game to decide the MCAA Midwest Regional Championship, Wisconsin and North Dakota had not met in the national tournament since the 1982 title game.

And that leaves us with Minnesota. The 1979 title game between North Dakota and Minnesota, which Minnesota won 4-3, would set off a 25 year span (1980-2004) during which the two schools would not meet in the NCAA tournament. That’s astounding. During that time, Minnesota advanced to the national tournament 20 times (winning titles in 2002 and 2003), and North Dakota advanced to the national tournament 12 times (winning titles in 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, and 2000), and yet they never played each other.

North Dakota has somewhat atoned for the 1979 title game loss with NCAA victories over Minnesota in 2005 and 2007.

Why, for those 25 years, did the two fan bases continue to circle Sioux/Gopher weekend on their calendars? What was it (or more to the point, what is it) about these two programs that causes every regular season matchup to feel like a playoff game and every WCHA Final Five tilt to feel like the Super Bowl? And that’s saying nothing about my heart rate during overtime of the 2007 West Regional Final or the 2005 Frozen Four Semifinal.

Here are some fan’s opinions on both sides of the Sioux/Gopher rivalry:

“Proximity. UM is the closest elite team to UND. Going to games in Grand Forks, you would see tons of Gopher fans, and that always makes for a heated atmosphere.” OETKB

“I hate the way (North Dakota) steals all of our home grown talent.” Go4er

“(The Gophers) always get the night games at the Final Five – that makes lots of UND fans angry.” dj_hoime

“From the maroon and gold side of things – I’ve come to love the intensity of this rivalry and put this matchup at the top of all rivalries in college sports today.” hoop

And one that sums up what all of us are thinking:

“It comes down to one thing at the end of the day – the scoreboard. Is it 7:30 yet?” Go4er

What do you think? I’d like to hear your thoughts. Your stories. Your memories of the Sioux/Gopher rivalry. Please leave comments about your favorite games and ones you’d like to forget. It’s your turn. It’s your time. It’s Sioux/Gopher week.

Thank you for reading. Click here for a preview of this weekend’s games. Check back after the games for reaction and commentary.

More on the PWR predictor

Last week’s post, Swept at the GLI — how harmful to PWR?, introduced the idea of simulating the remaining season to predict the PWR and led to a lot of speculation about exactly what it would take for the Sioux to reach the NCAA tournament.

I’ll start with that last point — in simulations that have UND reach the top 12 in PWR, UND wins about 75% of its 16 remaining regular season games.  That winning 75% of remaining games could land UND in the tournament is notably less pessimistic than most of the non-data based speculation I’ve seen, so wanted to get that out there.  Further, the WCHA tournament could add up to 6 additional games to UND’s pre-NCAA tournament schedule, giving UND additional opportunities to climb in the PWR.  In short, it’s very possible for UND to make the NCAA tournament with a reasonable run of good performance.

This stuff is very new and I’m still trying to figure out how to make it more usable and accessible to non-stats geeks, so if that’s you, jump to “What’s next” for a preview of those efforts.

Now it gets a little denser…

In noting last week that each weekend’s pair of games would knock out 3/4 of the remaining possible outcomes, I was concerned that the potential outcomes eliminated would be so biased as to make this exercise somewhat useless.  That is, I wondered if a sweep would remove 3/4 of the bad outcomes, increasing the probability of good outcomes by 4x.  A tool that predicted a 10% chance of a certain PWR before playing Bemidji St and a 40% chance of that same PWR after a sweep would be useless indeed.  Fortunately, that wasn’t the case.

The predicted PWR outcomes based on Bradley/Terry (KRACH)-determined game outcomes made only a minor shift, as intuitively follows UND’s predicted 60% chance of winning each game.

Probability of UND's end-of-season PWR using KRACH to predict game outcomes
Cumulative probability of UND's end-of-season PWR using KRACH to predict game outcomes

A quick note on how to use KRACH to predict game outcomes: going into the Gopher series, UND’s KRACH is 100 vs UMN’s 252 (other sites may have other numbers, but the ratio should be about 1:2.5).  Therefore, UMN stands a 2.5x greater chance than UND of winning each game.  Restated, if they perform as they have to date, UND is predicted to have about a 28% chance of winning each game.  These games are the least likely remaining wins on UND’s schedule, so wins this weekend would definitely shift the remaining possibilities and give us some very useful insight into this tool.  So, let’s see ’em boys 🙂

What’s next?

I already noted that in simulations in which UND reaches top 12 in PWR, UND wins about 75% of its 16 remaining regular season games. However, what I think people really want to know is: What is the likelihood of UND making the tournament if its wins 75% of its remaining games?  (or 50%, or 90%?)

I think that will be the most useful way to look at these results — probability distributions of likely PWRs given a particular winning percentage.  e.g. a graph that shows that if UND wins 75% of its remaining games, it stands a 10% chance of being ranked 11, an 11.3% chance of being ranked 12, etc…

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Bemidji State

It’s been a tale of two seasons for both of these teams.

Bemidji State began the season as road warriors and stumbled to a 1-6-0 record while allowing 4.5 goals per game. Since then, the Beavers have won seven of nine games and have tightened up defensively, only allowing 1.66 goals/game in that span.

North Dakota’s success has coincided with the elevated play of Brad Eidsness. The freshman netminder is 6-4-1 with a 2.19 goals-against average and .925 save percentage in his last 12 games, although the Fighting Sioux are still stinging from a pair of 2-1 losses (to Michigan State and Michigan Tech) at last weekend’s Great Lakes Invitational.

UND’s 3-5-0 mark in non-conference play has many wondering how much of a second-half surge it will take for North Dakota to make their seventh straight NCAA tournament appearance. It is entirely possible that the Fighting Sioux will have to win the WCHA Final Five to advance to the national tournament.

Special teams will be key in this weekend’s home and home series. Both teams boast potent power plays (BSU 15.9%, UND 18.9%) and mediocre penalty killing units (BSU 84.0%, UND 83.2%). The difference has been the number of opportunities each team has earned this season. The Beavers have a minus-12 disparity in special teams situations (88 power plays, 100 penalty kills), while the Fighting Sioux have been plus-30 (143 power plays, 113 penalty kills). Whichever team comes out ahead in the special teams battle has a decided edge this weekend.

Bemidji State Team Profile

Head Coach: Tom Serratore (8th season at BSU, 128-110-28, .534)
This Season: 8-8-0 Overall, 4-2-0 CHA (1st)
National Rankings: NR/NR
Team Offense: 2.44 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.94 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.9% (14 of 88)
Penalty Kill: 84.0% (84 of 100)
Last Season: 17-16-3 Overall, 13-4-3 CHA (1st)
Key Players: Sophomore F Matt Read (5-8-13), Senior F Brandon Marino (3-8-11), Senior F Tyler Scofield (6-4-10), Freshman F Brad Hunt (3-8-11), Senior F Cody Bostock (3-6-9), Sophomore G Matt Dalton (8-5-0, .906 SV%, 2.47 GAA)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 115-66-16, .624)
This Season: 9-10-1 Overall, 6-5-1 WCHA (9th)
National Ranking: #18/NR
Team Offense: 3.10 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.95 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.9% (27 of 143)
Penalty Kill: 83.2% (94 of 113)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (7-8-15), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (4-8-12), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-15-19), Senior F Ryan Martens (7-7-14), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-17-19), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (9-7-1, 2.64 GAA, .910 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: February 24th, 2008 (Grand Forks, ND). UND backup goalie Aaron Walski earned a shutout (13 saves) in his first career start and T.J. Oshie made a brilliant play behind the net to feed Andrew Kozek’s game-winner with under five minutes to play as North Dakota prevailed 1-0 to complete the weekend sweep of the visiting Beavers. Bemidji State backup goaltender Orlando Alamano made 31 saves in a losing effort.
Last Meeting in Bemidji: January 19, 2007. North Dakota saw its two-goal lead evaporate early in the third period, but Erik Fabian notched the game-winner with under four minutes to play as the Fighting Sioux downed the homestanding Beavers 3-2.
Most Important Meeting: I’ll give the nod to February 7, 1970 (Grand Forks, ND). Bemidji outgunned North Dakota 7-5 to claim its only victory in the all-time series. The Sioux and Beavers have never met in post-season action of any kind.
All-time Series: The Fighting Sioux have dominated the all-time series, going 13-1-1 (.900) against the Beavers. UND has won every game played in Bemidji (4-0-0) and has not lost a game to Bemidji State since the Beavers moved up to Division I (12-0-1).

Game News and Notes

UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in seventeen consecutive games (including sixteen starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Aaron Schweitzer, who played in the last 18 games of UND’s 1996-97 championship campaign. Sophomore goaltender Matt Dalton (8-5-0) is expected to start tonight’s opener for Bemidji State, with senior goaltender Orlando Alamano (0-3-0) getting the nod on Saturday. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 23rd on the UND career scoring list. Duncan has notched 148 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 20 all-time with six more points this season. Bemidji State senior captain Travis Winter (76 career points in 106 games) will return to the lineup this weekend after being sidelined for much of the first half with a groin injury. Only six current Sioux players (Ryan Duncan, Andrew Kozek, Derrick LaPoint, Brad Miller, Chris VandeVelde, and Matt Watkins) have notched points against Bemidji State.

The Prediction

Despite UND’s dominance in the series, recent games between the Sioux and Beavers have been tightly contested and evenly matched. If Bemidji gets up by a couple of goals at home, it could be lights out for North Dakota’s sputtering offense. Look for UND to take three points this weekend. 2-2 Tie, UND 3-2.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

Swept at the GLI — how harmful to PWR?

People who follow the PWR (PairWise Rankings) now know intuitively that getting swept at the GLI was particularly harmful to UND’s PWR (and NCAA tournament) chances, but for the first time ever anywhere, we can try to quantify how harmful.

The surprising bottom line — UND’s chances of getting a top 15 ranking in the PWR are now only about 1/3 to 1/4 what they would have been if UND had instead swept this tournament.

Without further ado, as simulated by the new PairWise Ranking Predictor, here are the distributions of UNDs PWR chances with the actual outcome of the Great Lakes Invitational vs if UND had swept.

krach

Using KRACH to predict the outcomes of unfinished games, UND now stands under a 5% chance of ending the regular season in the top 15 of the PWR.  Had UND swept the GLI, the Sioux would have instead stood over a 20% chance.

A few words about the chart — the horizontal axis is the desired PWR ranking (1 good, 25 bad), the vertical axis is the cumulative probability of achieving the corresponding PWR ranking, the green line represents UND’s actual chances as of today, the blue line what UND’s chances would have been with a sweep.  Note that the KRACH probabilities used to predict the outcomes of remaining games are the same for both — the current KRACH ratings that incorporate being swept.

But wait, Jim, you say… using KRACH to predict the probabilities just extends how teams have performed to date through the end of the season.  The mid-season KRACH last year would have also predicted doom and gloom for the Sioux.  While that’s true, I’m using these predictions to point out how much the differential, how much the sweep hurt, not the actual levels (e.g. 5% chance of finishing top 15).  Nonetheless, another interesting way to look at it is what proportion of the possible remaining outcomes land the Sioux in each PWR ranking.  That can be somewhat answered with a similar simulation that makes the outcomes of each game random (50% win, 50% lose) rather than with probabilities determined by KRACH.

random

Though a random draw looks better for the Sioux than the KRACH predictions, UND’s chances of a top 15 PWR were harmed even more from comprising 50% of possible remaining scenarios to 15%.  Note further that the number of potential outcomes that even land the Sioux as a TUC fell from nearly 80% to 50%.

A few extra notes for the geeks — the simulations were Monte Carlos with 1,000,000 trials per scenario.  While I didn’t do formal sensitivity analysis, a few runs of one demonstrated that results for each potential ranking were generally within .001%, so I’m pretty happy with 1,000,000 trials.

Great Lakes Invitational Preview: UND vs. Michigan State

Halloween night…the spookiest night of the year. But for the Michigan State Spartans, the two months since Halloween have been terrifying. MSU has not won since October 31st, going 0-9-2 in that span and also losing 4-2 to the US Under 18 team in exhibition action. The Spartans scored two or fewer goals in 10 of those 12 games and bring a season record of 4-11-3 into the 44th annual Great Lakes Invitational.

It’s been a mixed bag of tricks and treats for the Fighting Sioux in that span. North Dakota beat Wisconsin 3-2 on Halloween night in Grand Forks, and have gone 7-5-1 since that victory. UND has not lost in December (4-0-0 in sweeps of Harvard and St. Cloud State) and now has an overall record of 9-8-1. These next two weekends will mark the final four non-conference games for the Green and White, and provide an excellent opportunity to improve on a 3-3-0 non-conference record and position for the NCAA tournament.

The winner of this matchup will face Michigan or Michigan Tech in Sunday’s championship game at Joe Louis Arena. North Dakota has captured the GLI championship in two of its previous three tournament appearances.

Michigan State Team Profile

Head Coach: Rick Comley (7th season at MSU, 146-96-27, .593)
This Season: 4-11-3 Overall, 2-8-2-2 CCHA (12th)
National Rankings: NR/NR
Team Offense: 1.61 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 10.7% (9 of 84)
Penalty Kill: 87.6% (78 of 89)
Last Season: 25-12-5 Overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 19-6-3 CCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Matt Schepke (7-3-10), Senior F Tim Crowder (3-7-10), Sophomore D Jeff Petry (1-6-7), Senior G Jeff Lerg (3-10-1, 2.88 GAA, .912 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 115-64-16, .631)
This Season: 9-8-1 Overall, 6-5-1 WCHA (9th)
National Ranking: #18/NR
Team Offense: 3.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.06 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.7% (26 of 132)
Penalty Kill: 82.5% (85 of 103)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (7-8-15), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (4-7-11), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-14-18), Senior F Ryan Martens (7-7-14), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-16-18), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (9-5-1, 2.72 GAA, .909 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 13, 2007 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota blitzed the defending national champions 6-0 in the US Hockey Hall of Fame Game.
Most Important Meeting: March 28. 1987 (Detroit, MI). The Hrkac Circus invaded Joe Louis Arena and took home North Dakota’s fifth national championship with a 5-3 victory over the Spartans.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 62-35-2 (.636), and holds a record of 6-3-0 in games played on neutral ice. North Dakota has won nine of the previous ten meetings between the schools.

Game News and Notes

UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in fifteen consecutive games (including fourteen starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Aaron Schweitzer, who played in the last 18 games of UND’s 1996-97 championship campaign. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 23rd on the UND career scoring list. Duncan has notched 148 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 20 all-time with six more points this season.

The Prediction

This looks like a walk-over for North Dakota, but Michigan State is a proud program with a veteran coach, a seasoned goaltender, and a home crowd advantage. I expect this game to be close until the third, when the Fighting Sioux will break it open. UND 5-2.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

Weekend React: UND vs. St. Cloud State

North Dakota headed into the Christmas break on a good note, sweeping the St. Cloud State Huskies 3-2 and 7-4 in a pair of WCHA games at Ralph Engelstad Arena.  Sioux goaltender Brad Eidsness notched both victories to run his season record to 9-5-1.

With the sweep, North Dakota (9-8-1, 6-5-1 WCHA) found itself above .500 for the first time all season and returned to the top 20 in the national rankings.  UND entered the weekend in ninth place in the conference and found themselves all alone in sixth place after downing the Huskies.  The Fighting Sioux are actually in good position for an upper division finish in the league, as they have played two fewer games than most of the teams above them in the standings.

In short, a 6-2-1 stretch has righted the ship after a 3-6-0 start had the green and white in an early hole.

There are many reasons why North Dakota has found more success lately, but I will point to two:

Goaltending.  Since replacing Aaron Walksi midway through a November 14th game against Alaska-Anchorage, SIoux freshman Brad Eidsness has played every minute.  In that ten game stretch, Eidsness is 6-2-1 with a goals-against average of 2.22 and a save percentage of .926.

Balanced scoring.  During that same stretch of games, North Dakota has outscored opponents 40-21.  Eighteen Sioux skaters have scored a goal in the past ten games, including nine players with multiple goals.  The key to UND’s success has been scoring across all four lines and contributions from defensemen.   Of course, North Dakota relies on their top line of Ryan Duncan, Andrew Kozek, and Chris VandeVelde, particularily on the power play.  But those three players have potted 6 goals in the past ten games, while Brett Hextall (4 goals), Matt Frattin (7 goals), David Toews (3 goals), and Ryan Martens (5 goals) have led the recent surge.

Senior forward Ryan Martens has collected 5 goals and 5 assists in the past ten games after notching just 4 goals and 15 assists in his first three seasons at North Dakota (58 games played). 

The top two offensive defenseman, Chay Genoway and Brad Miller, have combined for 4 goals and 24 assists in the past 10 games.  It is perhaps even more encouraging to see contributions from sophomore blueliners Derrick Lapoint and Jake Marto, who have notched 2 goals and 4 assists in the past four games. 

The scoring hasn’t just been balanced, it has been timely.  North Dakota never trailed in last weekend’s series against St. Cloud, and had an answer every time the Huskies got close.

In Saturday’s finale, Jake Marto scored a first period goal less than a minute after SCSU had tied the score at one.  In the second period, Brett Hextall notched the eventual game-winner less than four minutes after the Huskies had pulled to within 4-3.  And most importantly, David Toews potted a huge sixth goal just 42 seconds after St. Cloud had scored to make it 5-4.

Great goaltending, contributions from all parts of the lineup, and timely scoring are a recipe for a weekend sweep and continued success in the second half.

Thank you for reading.  I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. St. Cloud State

As I mentioned in my article about the Challenge Cup, the rivalry between these two schools has picked up since the WCHA made North Dakota and St. Cloud State schedule partners six seasons ago.

Both teams come into this series looking to make a move in the conference standings before the Christmas break. The Huskies (10-6-0, 5-5-0 WCHA) are currently tied for 7th place in the league race, while the Fighting Sioux (7-8-1, 4-5-1 WCHA) have been playing better of late but find themselves in 9th place. The conference standings are a bit misleading, as league leader Wisconsin (7-5-2 in the WCHA) has played four more conference games.

There are a number of players performing at an incredibly high level for each team. Sioux freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness (7-5-1, 2.68 GAA, .911 SV) has been rock-solid since replacing senior Aaron Walski midway through a November 14th game against Alaska-Anchorage. In the past eight games, Eidsness is 4-2-1 with a goals-against average of 2.01 and a save percentage of .933. North Dakota sophomore forward Matt Frattin has scored seven goals in his past seven games and freshman forward David Toews netted his first two career goals last weekend in a sweep at Harvard.

For the Huskies, it’s Roe, Roe, Roe. The sophomore forward has scored 9 goals and added 16 assists this season in only 16 games and is second in the nation in scoring. Senior forward John Swanson has tallied eight goals already this season, and St. Cloud is getting more than adequate goaltending from junior Jase Weslosky (8-5-0, 2.32 GAA, .926 SV).

By comparison, the top UND scorer is defenseman Chay Genoway. His 2 goals and 14 assists (in 15 games) are good for 34th place nationally. North Dakota’s top scoring forward is Brad Miller (4-11-15 in 14 games).

Just like much of last season, St. Cloud has struggled in close games, going 1-3-0 games decided by one goal this year.

This weekend, the two teams will be earning points for the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup, a traveling fan trophy awarded to the team which wins the four-game season series. The teams will square off in St. Cloud on January 30-31 in the final regular season meetings between the schools.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: Bob Motzko (4th season at SCSU, 73-49-16, .587)
This Season: 10-6-0 Overall, 5-5-0 WCHA (t-7th)
National Rankings: #17/#19
Team Offense: 3.69 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.38 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.7% (20 of 107)
Penalty Kill: 80.7% (71 of 88)
Last Season: 19-16-5 Overall (NCAA East Regional Semifinalist), 12-12-4 WCHA (4th)
Key Players: Sophomore F Garrett Roe (9-16-25), Senior F John Swanson (8-7-15), Junior F Ryan Lasch (2-13-15), Junior D Garrett Raboin (5-9-14), Junior G Jase Weslosky (8-5-0, 2.32 GAA, .926 SV, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 113-64-16, .627)
This Season: 7-8-1 Overall, 4-5-1 WCHA (9th)
National Ranking: NR
Team Offense: 3.12 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.06 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.5% (24 of 123)
Penalty Kill: 81.7% (76 of 93)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (6-8-14), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (3-7-10), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-11-15), Sophomore F Matt Frattin (7-3-10), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-14-16), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (7-5-1, 2.68 GAA, .911 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 8, 2008 (Grand Forks, ND). Husky forward Ryan Lasch scored a late power-play goal to salvage a 2-2 tie in the final regular season meeting between the two teams. UND and St. Cloud tied 1-1 in Friday’s opener.
Most Important Meeting: March 17, 2001 (St. Paul, MN). St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 47-26-10 (.627), and holds a record of 24-11-5 (.663) in games played in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in thirteen consecutive games (including twelve starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Aaron Schweitzer, who played in the last 18 games of UND’s 1996-97 championship campaign. Eidsness was named the WCHA Rookie of the Week for his two victories last weekend at Harvard. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 25th on the UND career scoring list. Duncan has notched 147 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 20 all-time with seven more points this season.

The Prediction

This will be a special teams battle all the way. Both teams score on the power play and give up power play goals at an alarming rate. North Dakota will need to strike a balance between playing a physical brand of hockey and staying out of the penalty box. UND 4-3, 3-3 tie.

On a Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of SiouxSports.com, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Southgate Grill and Bar. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions. Check back after the games for reaction, news, and commentary.

How deep a hole? A look back at past seasons.

Another slow start for the Sioux hockey team has led to inevitable comparisons with years past. But there’s a feeling among some that key losses have led to a deeper hole this year that will be more difficult to climb out of with a second half surge.

2008 start vs past seasons

Season PWR RPI Win% KRACH Out of
Conference
Games
2008-12-08 n/a #26 (.5124) .4688 #22 L – Boston Univ.
L – Massachusetts
W/L – Cornell
W/W – Harvard
2007-12-10 #7 #8 (.5689) .5667 #6 W – Michigan St.
T – Boston Coll.
W – Northeastern
End of 07-08
reg. season
#4 .5866 .7143
2006-12-11 #20 #22 (.5251) .4688 #13 W/W – Quinnipiac
L/L – Maine
End of 06-07
reg. season
#6 .5497 .5972
2005-12-12 #17 #15 (.5327) .5833 #13 W – Miami
L – Michigan St.
W/W – Northeastern
W/T – New Hampshire
End of 05-06
reg. season
#12 .5475 .6220

This seems to be UND’s worst start in the past four years. The Sioux have a win% equal to the previous low for this point in a season — 2006-07. UND’s RPI this year is lower than it was 2006-07, and KRACH rates the Sioux as a significantly less competitive team than they were at this point that season.

However, that season did include two early losses vs. Hockey East (both to Maine), and a PWR ranking of #20 at this point in this season. The Sioux rallied by the end of that regular season to finish #6 in the PWR, demonstrating that it is possible to climb out from such a hole.

Chart of UND’s 2006-07 PWR comeback

Can the Sioux still make the NCAA tournament?

In short, yes. Over half the season remains to be played! The rest of this post will look at the impact of the season to date on contributors to the PWR and future opportunities to influence contributors to the PWR. It is not meant to encourage anyone to worry much about UND’s current position in the PWR, which is quite meaningless.

Winning percentage

As an upper bound to the potential for a turnaround, consider Spring of 2008 in which the Sioux posted an amazing 18 game undefeated streak, never losing from January 5 until the playoffs. Taking the 2007-08 record over their last 22 games (16-3-3) and adding it to this year’s tally (7-8-1) would result in a final record of 23-11-4.

That would give the Sioux a regular season win percentage of .6579.

RPI

Assuming UND’s past and future opponents remain of constant quality until the end of the season, UND’s RPI from a win percentage of .6579 should be about .56. That would place UND at #11 on the current RPI chart. See other RPI scenarios under “Future RPI” on the North Dakota Hockey RPI Details page. If, instead, UND won about 13 of its remaining 21 games*, it would end the season with a win percentage of .5541 and an RPI of about .5356, currently good for 20th in the NCAA.

*That page shows only 21 remaining games for UND, though there will certainly be a 22nd, because the second opponent for the Great Lakes Invitational is not yet known.

PWR components

If the season ended today, UND wouldn’t be a TUC because it’s not in the top 25 of RPI, so would not be ranked in the PWR.

Current record vs. TUCs: 4-7-1
Remaining games vs. current TUCs: 14 (Minnesota 2, Denver 2, St Cloud St 4, Wisconsin 2, Colorado College 2, Mankato 2)

UND’s non-conference losses to Hockey East teams will hurt its COP comparisons to Hockey East teams, though UND has ample opportunity to shore up its COP comparisons to Western teams. UND has a large part of its WCHA schedule ahead of it; the Great Lakes Invititational (including Michigan St. and potentially Michigan) will position UND vs. the CCHA.

If UND averaged .600 for the rest of the season (RPI of about .5356 #20), it would result in a TUC of 12-13-1 (if that percentage is applied across TUCs); .800 (RPI of about .56 #11), would result in a TUC of 15-10-1 (ceteris paribus), and position UND well for H2H and COP comparisons with WCHA teams.

Tournaments

Of course, UND’s opportunities don’t end with the regular season. Every team in the WCHA gets at least two WCHA Final Five play-in games. All-in-all, the Final Five could add up to six games to UND’s schedule. Finally, winning the tournament would guarantee an NCAA tournament berth, regardless of previous performance.

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its scheduling system, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season (and play the other schools twice one season, four times the next, and so on). Minnesota and Wisconsin were paired up, as were Colorado College and Denver. All four of those schools, and particularly Minnesota and Wisconsin, would have made excellent schedule partners for UND.

And which of the remaining teams would become North Dakota’s schedule partner? Alaska-Anchorage? Mankato? No, as the two newest members of the WCHA (1993 and 1999, respectively), the Seawolves and Mavericks were paired with each other. How about Minnesota-Duluth or Michigan Tech, schools which had been members of the conference for over 35 years? No again. Those two schools are just over 200 miles apart, and that was certainly a factor in the decision.

That left St. Cloud State, a familiar foe for Sioux fans from North Central Conference football and basketball games. The St. Cloud State Huskies had been a Division I hockey program for 15 years (and a WCHA member for 12) before the 2002-03 season, and had posted a 83-34-6 (.699) record over the previous three seasons. By contrast, from 1999-02, UND held a record of 76-35-16 (.654).

The two schools had played a handful of meaningful games in the past. In 1991 (St. Cloud’s first in the league), the Huskies and Sioux met in Grand Forks for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. St. Cloud took the opener, 4-2, before falling 10-2 and 7-4 in games 2 and 3. The two teams met in the 1998 and 2000 WCHA Final Five semifinal games, with North Dakota prevailing in both contests. Perhaps the best reason to be optimistic about the rivalry was the 2001 WCHA Final Five championship game, a hard-fought contest which St. Cloud State won on Derek Eastman’s overtime winner.

It’s fair to say that in 2002 there was confusion AND cautious optimism surrounding the potential rivalry between the two teams. (And on a personal note, I had already traveled to St. Cloud for the Sioux/Husky games four times before the rivalry announcement was made, and I was more than pleased that I would now be able to make this trip every year.)

It’s also fair to say that the rivalry has caught on over the past six seasons. The two teams have played eight overtime contests in their 26 regular-season meetings, and points are tough to come by, at home and on the road. The fans have also made their mark on the partnership between the schools, as the UND/SCSU rivalry now has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

Challenge Cup