(Penultimate?) forecast – Feb 25

When I started preparing this, I thought it might be the last of the season. As the number of remaining games becomes small enough, the You Are The Committee tools on USCHO and CHN start to become useful ways for you to explore the potential PWR outcomes yourself.

However, it occurs to me that the tricky thing about those tools has always been trying to figure out the impact of games not involving the team you’re studying, so I’ll probably run a few more simulations between now and selection day and post any interesting results.

This weekend’s outlook

Both the split and win curves are very stretched out this week. For either of those outcomes, UND’s fate would rest in the hands of other teams significantly more than usual.


UND loses both: 79% chance of #13-14, 98% chance of #12-15
UND splits: 50% chance of #10-11, 85% chance of #9-12 (possible outcomes range from #4-#13)
UND sweeps: 69% chance of #7-9, 92% chance of #6-10 (possible outcomes range from #3-#11)

UND’s likely PWR is given as a set of probabilities and ranges because other games’ outcomes will affect UND’s PWR. The “Who else to cheer for this weekend” section below lists, in order, the games that have the biggest impact on where UND will fall in the given ranges.

Who else to cheer for this weekend

As hinted at by nodakvindy on the forum when discussing Yale v. Princeton last week, these are the non-Sioux games that will make the biggest contributions to UND’s PWR this week.

They are focused solely on the short-term — what will maximize UND’s PWR as of next Monday (Mar 2).  Some outcomes that bump UND’s PWR upward in the short run, e.g. SCSU over Denver, may actually prove undesirable in the long-run.

Team to cheer for / how much their outcome will affect UND’s PWR this week:

AA vs Alaska (1.57 w/sweep, 1.03 w/1 win)
Princeton to lose vs Harvard/Dartmouth (1.13 lose both, .70 lose one)
SCSU vs. Denver(1.08 w/sweep, .25 w/1 win)
Ohio St vs Miami (.79 w/sweep, .58 w/1 win)
Merrimack vs UNH (.77 w/sweep, .54 w/1 win)
Maine vs Vermont (.79 w/sweep, .21 w/1 win)
UMN vs UMD (.69 w/sweep, .47 w/1 win)
Mich St vs Notre Dame (.65 w/sweep, .05 w/1 win)
Mass. Lowell vs Northeastern (.57 w/sweep, .18 w/1 win)

Season outlook


At least splitting the remaining four games is required to be in the relatively safe part of PWR. As was noted by farce poobah in the forum, “Given the likelihood that CCHA, Hockey East, and ECAC also may have upset winners, I think you have to be inside #10 to really be comfortable.”

Chat about this

There’s a good thread going on the forum discussing these forecasts. There are a lot of smart people who have gone into a lot more depth than I can in these articles, so stop by, read, chat, and ask questions.

(PWR) PairWise Rankings – 2009

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