I wasn’t sure if this post would be necessary or even useful because as the number of games becomes smaller, it becomes easier to use tools like CHN and USCHO’s PWR predictors and slack.net’s build your own rankings.
However, I found the results somewhat interesting, so with minimal fanfare, figured I might as well share them.
Look back at end-of-regular-season predictions
Most weeks since I began publishing these predictions, I pointed out the success (or occasional miss) of the previous week’s one-week prediction. Now I’m going to take a look back at the end-of-season predictions.
I’m going to declare victory and that this tool is actually a useful way to look at a team’s likely future PWR. Looking back at the charts now, with the outcomes known, they provided interesting information that really wasn’t previously obtainable through traditional analysis of close pairings.
The Sioux won 6.5 of their final 8 and ended the regular season at #8 in the PWR. Here was the prediction on Feb. 11:
The Sioux won 2.5 of their final 4 and ended the regular season at #8 in the PWR. Here was the prediction on Feb. 25:
Mar. 16 Possibilities
This chart should be taken with a big grain of salt, because it doesn’t correctly include the possibility of any matchup other than UND’s going to a 3rd game. However, since it includes the sweep and swept scenarios for each team, it probably gets the approximate ranges right, just not the distributions.
- With some help, the Sioux could still be marching toward a #1 seed.
- Dropping even one game this series could put them at #10 or lower, making the WCHA Final Five games must-win to be assured a spot.
- However, even getting swept out won’t necessarily put UND out of the running; it would put them right on the edge such that other tournament outcomes could easily push the Sioux out.
Who to cheer for
In addition to just dumping the data of what games impact UND the most, I spent a minute or two on each trying to figure out why it might be important. My most interesting observation is that some are defensive plays that are important only if UND loses, when they become critical to propping up UND’s PWR.
Boston College @New Hampshire (UND averages 1.15 spots higher with a sweep)
Could flip the RPI point
AA @Denver (UND averages .98 spots higher with a sweep)
Could flip the RPI point and the COP point
Mass. Lowell @Vermont (UND averages .81 spots higher with a sweep)
Could flip the RPI point
Northern Mich. @Miami (UND averages .62 spots higher with a sweep)
NMU could become a TUC, but that just seems to solidify Notre Dame’s comparison to us by giving them the TUC point.
This is probably about making sure Miami doesn’t overtake us if the Sioux do anything other than sweep.
Brown @Yale (UND averages .48 spots higher with a sweep)
Again, this looks defensive, making sure Yale doesn’t overtake us if the Sioux don’t sweep.
Like I said in the intro, now that it’s getting easy 😉 everyone has their own predictions, so you PWR junkies can easily get your fill.
- PWR PairWise Rankings 2009 forum thread has become very active
- slack.net Build Your Own Rankings lets you supply a precise scenario of game outcomes and shows you what the PWR table will be
- CHN’s weekly PWR analysis, breakdown and comparison
- You are the committee (YATC) tools, which do both the job of slack.net’s calculator and show you the predicted seedings, should be available on CHN and USCHO after the conference tournaments end