Sioux Sports Talk

December 28, 2008.

Perhaps this date will go down as the low point for the 2008-2009 Fighting Sioux. UND found itself in the third place game of the Great Lakes Invitational (Detroit, Michigan) after dropping a 2-1 decision to the Michigan State Spartans in the tournament opener.

The Michigan Tech Huskies dropped North Dakota by that same 2-1 score to send the Green and White back home with a record of 9-10-1 in the first half of the year. At the time, UND was sitting in ninth place in the WCHA standings.

Since the Great Lakes Invitational, North Dakota has gone 13-2-3 and claimed the MacNaughton Cup as regular season champions in the WCHA. This latest version of the second half surge also has the Fighting Sioux in excellent position for a berth in the NCAA tournament.

Michigan Tech picked up just its second conference victory of the season last Friday, winning a crazy 6-5 overtime game despite being outshot by visiting Minnesota, 49-27.

In addition to the non-conference game at the GLI, North Dakota and Michigan Tech met in Houghton for a pair of WCHA games in mid-January. The two teams tied on Friday night and the Fighting Sioux rolled on Saturday, 5-0.

North Dakota has had some trouble recently in home playoff series, with six of their last nine first-round matchups going to three games and five of the last twelve home playoff games going to overtime. Despite these close calls, UND has found a way to advance to the Final Five the past eleven times they have hosted the opening round of the WCHA playoffs.

The Huskies have made it to the Final Five just once in the past 12 seasons (2007), while the Fighting Sioux have participated in the Final Five eleven of the past twelve years (missing only in 2002).

Michigan Tech Team Profile

Head Coach: Jamie Russell (6th season at MTU, 61-135-32, .338)
This Season: 6-23-7 Overall, 2-19-7 WCHA (10th)
National Rankings: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: NR
Team Offense: 1.61 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.14 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 11.7% (23 of 196)
Penalty Kill: 78.5% (150 of 191)
Last Season: 14-20-5 Overall, 9-15-4 WCHA (9th)
Key Players: Sophomore F Jordan Baker (15-10-25), Freshman F Brett Olson (10-13-23), Junior D Drew Dobson (4-13-17), Senior D Geoff Kinrade (3-12-15)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 128-68-19, .640)
This Season: 22-12-4 Overall, 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
National Rankings: #6/#6
PairWise Ranking: 7th (tie)
Team Offense: 3.45 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.66 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.3% (45 of 246)
Penalty Kill: 85.1% (166 of 195)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (15-18-33), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (14-15-29), Freshman F Jason Gregoire (11-14-25), Freshman F Brett Hextall (12-11-23), Senior D Brad Miller (6-24-30), Junior D Chay Genoway (3-28-31), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (22-9-4, 2.47 GAA, .909 SV, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 7, 2009 (Houghton, Michigan). UND freshman net minder Brad Eidsness picked up his first career shutout (14 saves) as North Dakota rolled 5-0 to gain three points out of the weekend series with the homestanding Huskies.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: March 16, 2008. North Dakota advanced to the WCHA Final Five by winning the third and decisive game of the first round series by a 2-1 score. Michigan Tech won Saturday night in overtime, 3-2, to force Sunday’s tiebreaker. In the first game of the series, UND controlled play from the outset and won 4-0.

Most Important Meeting: The Sioux and Huskies have never met in the NCAA tournament, so I will go with the most important meeting that never was: in 1965, the Sioux lost to Boston College, 4-3, one game short of the national championship game, where they would have faced the Michigan Tech Huskies, who won the second of their three titles by defeating the Eagles. UND settled for third place that season, downing Brown University, 9-5. North Dakota went 13-3-0 in the regular season in 1964-65, with two of those three losses coming at the hands of Michigan Tech.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 134-90-9 (.594), including a 75-33-4 (.713) record in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1948.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has not lost this season when leading after one period (13-0-2). Michigan Tech has been outscored 38-12 in the first period this season. UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has now appeared in 35 consecutive games (including 34 starts), eclipsing the mark set by freshman Peter Waselovich during North Dakota’s 1973-74 campaign. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 16th on the Fighting Sioux career scoring list, one point behind Tony Hrkac (1984-85, 1986-87). Duncan is now in second place on UND’s all-time games played list with 170, and is moving closer to Chris Porter’s school (and NCAA) record of 175 consecutive games played. Five of the Huskies six wins this season have been by one goal. North Dakota won five of the seven meetings between the teams last year, including two of three in a WCHA first round playoff series in Grand Forks.

The Prediction

UND is unbeaten in its last eleven games (9-0-2) at Ralph Engelstad Arena. I have a feeling that the Huskies will give North Dakota a tough game on Friday night. If the Sioux can win a close one on Friday, they will roll on Saturday. UND 2-1, 4-1.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions. Check back after the games for reaction and commentary.

I wasn’t sure if this post would be necessary or even useful because as the number of games becomes smaller, it becomes easier to use tools like CHN and USCHO’s PWR predictors and slack.net’s build your own rankings.

However, I found the results somewhat interesting, so with minimal fanfare, figured I might as well share them.

Look back at end-of-regular-season predictions

Most weeks since I began publishing these predictions, I pointed out the success (or occasional miss) of the previous week’s one-week prediction. Now I’m going to take a look back at the end-of-season predictions.

I’m going to declare victory and that this tool is actually a useful way to look at a team’s likely future PWR. Looking back at the charts now, with the outcomes known, they provided interesting information that really wasn’t previously obtainable through traditional analysis of close pairings.

The Sioux won 6.5 of their final 8 and ended the regular season at #8 in the PWR. Here was the prediction on Feb. 11:

The Sioux won 2.5 of their final 4 and ended the regular season at #8 in the PWR. Here was the prediction on Feb. 25:

Mar. 16 Possibilities

This chart should be taken with a big grain of salt, because it doesn’t correctly include the possibility of any matchup other than UND’s going to a 3rd game. However, since it includes the sweep and swept scenarios for each team, it probably gets the approximate ranges right, just not the distributions.

Conclusions:

• With some help, the Sioux could still be marching toward a #1 seed.
• Dropping even one game this series could put them at #10 or lower, making the WCHA Final Five games must-win to be assured a spot.
• However, even getting swept out won’t necessarily put UND out of the running; it would put them right on the edge such that other tournament outcomes could easily push the Sioux out.

Who to cheer for

In addition to just dumping the data of what games impact UND the most, I spent a minute or two on each trying to figure out why it might be important. My most interesting observation is that some are defensive plays that are important only if UND loses, when they become critical to propping up UND’s PWR.

Boston College @New Hampshire (UND averages 1.15 spots higher with a sweep)
Could flip the RPI point

AA @Denver (UND averages .98 spots higher with a sweep)
Could flip the RPI point and the COP point

Mass. Lowell @Vermont (UND averages .81 spots higher with a sweep)
Could flip the RPI point

Northern Mich. @Miami (UND averages .62 spots higher with a sweep)
NMU could become a TUC, but that just seems to solidify Notre Dame’s comparison to us by giving them the TUC point.
This is probably about making sure Miami doesn’t overtake us if the Sioux do anything other than sweep.

Brown @Yale (UND averages .48 spots higher with a sweep)
Again, this looks defensive, making sure Yale doesn’t overtake us if the Sioux don’t sweep.

More reading

Like I said in the intro, now that it’s getting easy 😉 everyone has their own predictions, so you PWR junkies can easily get your fill.

• PWR PairWise Rankings 2009 forum thread has become very active
• slack.net Build Your Own Rankings lets you supply a precise scenario of game outcomes and shows you what the PWR table will be
• CHN’s weekly PWR analysis, breakdown and comparison
• You are the committee (YATC) tools, which do both the job of slack.net’s calculator and show you the predicted seedings, should be available on CHN and USCHO after the conference tournaments end

Overtime.

In the regular season, it’s a five-minute extension – bonus hockey, if you will – during which one team pours it on and the other team attempts to hang on.

North Dakota has been lights out in the extra frame. UND has not lost in seven overtime games this season (3-0-4), including a 2-0-4 record in league play. Wisconsin has also gone to overtime seven times, but holds an 0-3-4 mark (0-2-3 WCHA) in those games.

Over the past two weekends, both the Sioux and the Badgers have played three overtime contests. UND went 2-0-1, while UW went 0-2-1. It is because of these results that North Dakota is in prime position to claim the MacNaughton Cup as WCHA regular season champions while Wisconsin can finish no higher than 3rd.

Let’s look at it a different way. If all of those league games had ended after regulation and gone into the books as a tie, the two teams’ WCHA records would look almost identical:

North Dakota: 14-6-6 (34 points)
Wisconsin: 13-8-5 (31 points)

But because of the “fourth period”, the actual league records are:

North Dakota: 16-6-4 (36 points)
Wisconsin: 13-10-3 (29 points)

As the playoffs draw near and the games become tighter, the ability to win close games will be incredibly important. North Dakota is 9-5 in one-goal games this season; Wisconsin, 6-9.

Despite being close in the standings, the two teams appear to be headed in different directions. In the second half of the season (since January 1, 2009), the Fighting Sioux have lost just once (12-1-3), while the Badgers are under .500 (6-7-1). For more on UND’s penchant for second-half surges, click here.

Sioux forward Ryan Duncan has been red hot in the second half of the WCHA season. The senior has scored eight goals and added nine assists in 14 games. North Dakota went 10-1-3 in those seven league series to climb to the top of the WCHA standings.

One area where the Badgers might find success is on the power play. With the loss of Derrick LaPoint for the season (broken leg) and injuries to Evan Trupp and Jason Gregoire (both probable for this weekend), North Dakota’s penalty kill has been suspect lately. Over the past three games, UND has only killed 13 of 18 penalties (72.2%).

UW looks to be just as deep as North Dakota, with 14 players in double digit points for the season (UND has 16). Fighting Sioux head coach Dave Hakstol can comfortably roll all four lines in any situation, a benefit when dealing with the home-ice advantage in Madison.

Sioux freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has never experienced an atmosphere quite like the Kohl Center, and his ability to play on the big stage will be tested this weekend. Remarkably, the Badgers are only 9-7-2 at the Kohl Center this season, but this weekend’s crowd will be in full throat and most of the players on the UW roster will remember this, my #1 highlight from the 2007-08 Fighting Sioux hockey season:

The Comeback at the Kohl Center will go down in the annals of Fighting Sioux hockey history as one of those “I remember where I was when….” games. North Dakota survived (yes, survived) the first two periods of hockey against the hometown Badgers in the Midwest Regional Final. UND was lucky to be down only 2-0 (thank you, Lamoureux, and your trusty sidekicks, the pipes). And then the captain did what captains do: they leave it all on the ice. Rylan Kaip netted just his eighth goal of the season at 3:33 of the third (and how perfect is that?), and 47 seconds later, Ryan Duncan took a brilliant pass from T.J. Oshie and tied the game at two. Andrew Kozek completed the UND comback at 1:47 of the overtime, and North Dakota was headed to Denver.

North Dakota can win the MacNaughton Cup (awarded to the WCHA regular season champion) with one win or two ties this weekend. UND would also claim the cup if Colorado College beats the Pioneers in Denver on Saturday night. DU and CC play only a single game this weekend.

Wisconsin Team Profile

Head Coach: Mike Eaves (7th season at UW, 139-109-34, .553)
This Season: 16-14-4 Overall, 13-10-3 WCHA (4th)
National Rankings: #19/NR
PairWise Ranking: 21st
Team Offense: 3.26 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.82 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.4% (40 of 206)
Penalty Kill: 87.8% (180 of 205)
Last Season: 16-17-7 Overall (NCAA Midwest Regional Finalist), 11-12-5 WCHA (6th)
Key Players: Junior F Michael Davies (10-12-22), Freshman F Derek Stepan (6-22-28), Senior F Tom Gorowsky (11-14-25), Junior D Jamie McBain (7-27-34), Sophomore D Brendan Smith (8-13-21), Senior G Shane Connelly (15-12-4, 2.68 GAA, .906 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 127-67-19, .641)
This Season: 21-11-4 Overall, 16-6-4 WCHA (1st)
National Rankings: #6/#6
PairWise Ranking: 7th
Team Offense: 3.56 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.67 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.6% (44 of 236)
Penalty Kill: 84.7% (160 of 189)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (15-17-32), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (13-15-28), Freshman F Jason Gregoire (11-14-25), Freshman F Brett Hextall (12-11-23), Senior D Brad Miller (6-23-29), Junior D Chay Genoway (3-27-30), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (21-8-4, 2.46 GAA, .908 SV, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 1, 2008 (Grand Forks, ND). Wisconsin finally earned their first win of the season, posting a 5-2 victory over North Dakota to salvage a split of the weekend series. The Badgers scored three goals in the first two minutes of the third period to erase a 2-0 Fighting Sioux lead. Freshman forward Jason Gregoire netted the game-winner for UND on Friday, sending the Halloween crowd home happy with a power play tally late in the third period that broke a 2-2 tie.

Last Meeting in Madison: March 30, 2008. North Dakota hangs on for the better part of two periods and scores three unanswered goals to defeat the homestanding Badgers and advance to their fourth consecutive Frozen Four.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1982. A 2-2 tie after two periods turns into a 5-2 Sioux victory, as Phil Sykes nets a hat trick and leads UND to its fourth National Championship.
All-time Series: Wisconsin leads the all-time series, 81-59-10 (.573), including a 43-24-3 (.636) mark in games played in Madison.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has not lost this season when leading after one period (13-0-2). Wisconsin has only won one game this year when trailing after twenty minutes of play (1-4-1). UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has now appeared in 33 consecutive games (including 32 starts), eclipsing the mark set by freshman Peter Waselovich during North Dakota’s 1973-74 campaign. UW junior forward Tom Bardis (a transfer from St. Lawrence) and UND senior defenseman Brad Miller are both from Alpharetta, Georgia. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 16th on the Fighting Sioux career scoring list, two points behind Tony Hrkac (1984-85, 1986-87). Duncan is now in second place on UND’s all-time games played list with 168, and is moving closer to Chris Porter’s school (and NCAA) record of 175 consecutive games played.

Prediction

The Fighting Sioux are on a roll and the MacNaughton Cup is within reach. No amount of red and white will keep North Dakota from accomplishing the first of many goals on Friday. Look for a bit of a letdown on Saturday, as UND rests a couple of banged-up players and gears up for the first round of the playoffs. UND 4-2, UW 4-3.

At the beginning of the season, Colorado College was the only team in the WCHA without any question marks. The Tigers were unanimously picked to repeat as league champions.

With two weeks remaining in the regular season, there are several question marks surrounding this year’s Tiger team:

Did a sweep of the Gophers right the ship in Colorado Springs?

Can Colorado College make enough of a push to challenge North Dakota and Denver for the league title?

Will the Tigers make the NCAA tournament?

It’s been an up-and-down year for Scott Owen’s Tigers. Last weekend’s home sweep of Minnesota marked only the second time since October 18th that CC won two games in a row.

After this weekend, UND will travel to Madison for a pair of games with the Badgers while Colorado College will travel to Denver for a single game on Saturday. The Tigers sit four points behind the Sioux and Pioneers heading into this weekend’s action.

In the national playoff picture, Colorado College is 16th in the PairWise rankings and still has some ground to make up if they want to extend their season. A solid February (3-0-2) has them headed in the right direction, but they desperately need more wins.

North Dakota is on yet another second-half surge. After opening the season 5-8-1, the Fighting Sioux have gone 15-3-2 to climb back into the WCHA race and the national playoff picture. UND currently sits 11th in the PairWise rankings and could crack the top ten with another solid weekend.

Colorado College Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Owens (10th season at CC, 239-130-33, .636)
This Season: 16-9-8 Overall, 12-8-5 WCHA (3rd)
National Rankings: #13/#13
PairWise Ranking: 16th
Team Offense: 2.82 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.64 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.9% (33 of 207)
Penalty Kill: 86.6% (168 of 194)
Last Season: 28-12-1 Overall (NCAA West Regional semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Key Players: Senior F Chad Rau (14-18-32), Senior F Eric Walski (11-21-32), Junior F Bill Sweatt (11-9-20), Junior D Brian Connelly (3-21-24), Junior D Nate Prosser (5-7-12), Sophomore G Richard Bachman (14-8-8, 2.55 GAA, .916 SV, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 126-67-18, .640)
This Season: 20-11-3 Overall, 15-6-3 WCHA (1st)
National Rankings: #8/#7
PairWise Ranking: 11th
Team Offense: 3.53 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.62 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.2% (43 of 224)
Penalty Kill: 85.4% (152 of 178)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (14-15-29), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (13-14-27), Senior F/D Brad Miller (6-22-28), Sophomore F Matt Frattin (12-8-20), Junior D Chay Genoway (3-26-29), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (20-8-3, 2.41 GAA, .911 SV, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 8, 2008 (Colorado Springs, CO). Eric Walsky scored four goals as the Tigers upended the Sioux 7-4 to salvage a split of the weekend series. UND won Friday’s opener, 3-1.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: November 3, 2007. Colorado College survived the first period, taking a 1-0 lead on a shorthanded goal despite being outshot 18-4. The Tigers went on to win 4-1 to gain a split of the weekend series. North Dakota won the first game, 6-2.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1997. UND defeated Colorado College, 6-2, in the Frozen Four Semifinals in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Two nights later, North Dakota downed Boston University, 6-4, to claim its sixth NCAA Championship. North Dakota and Colorado College also met in the 2001 East Regional (Worcester, Mass.), with UND prevailing, 4-1.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 129-75-9 (.627), including an astonishing 78-19-5 (.789) record in games played in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1948.

Game News and Notes

Colorado College has played in 11 of the last 14 NCAA national tournaments, but has not won a national championship since 1957. North Dakota has not lost this season when leading after one period of play (12-0-1). The Tigers are 8-1-0 in one goal games this year. UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in 31 consecutive games (including 30 starts). The only freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Peter Waselovich, who played in a school-record 32 straight games during UND’s 1973-74 season. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 17th on the Fighting Sioux career scoring list, two points behind current UND assistant coach Cary Eades (1978-82). If Duncan plays both games this weekend, he will move into second place all-time on the career games played list at UND. Duncan has played in 166 games in his Fighting Sioux career; Chris Porter holds the school and NCAA record of 175 consecutive games played.

The Prediction

Both teams appear to be peaking as the calendar turns to March. It will be interesting to see how the afternoon start times affect both teams. North Dakota holds a record of 11-3-1 at Ralph Engelstad Arena this year, and the crowd will be a definite factor. UND is also deeper and clicking offensively right now. 3-3 tie, UND 4-2.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions.

When I started preparing this, I thought it might be the last of the season. As the number of remaining games becomes small enough, the You Are The Committee tools on USCHO and CHN start to become useful ways for you to explore the potential PWR outcomes yourself.

However, it occurs to me that the tricky thing about those tools has always been trying to figure out the impact of games not involving the team you’re studying, so I’ll probably run a few more simulations between now and selection day and post any interesting results.

This weekend’s outlook

Both the split and win curves are very stretched out this week. For either of those outcomes, UND’s fate would rest in the hands of other teams significantly more than usual.

UND loses both: 79% chance of #13-14, 98% chance of #12-15
UND splits: 50% chance of #10-11, 85% chance of #9-12 (possible outcomes range from #4-#13)
UND sweeps: 69% chance of #7-9, 92% chance of #6-10 (possible outcomes range from #3-#11)

UND’s likely PWR is given as a set of probabilities and ranges because other games’ outcomes will affect UND’s PWR. The “Who else to cheer for this weekend” section below lists, in order, the games that have the biggest impact on where UND will fall in the given ranges.

Who else to cheer for this weekend

As hinted at by nodakvindy on the forum when discussing Yale v. Princeton last week, these are the non-Sioux games that will make the biggest contributions to UND’s PWR this week.

They are focused solely on the short-term — what will maximize UND’s PWR as of next Monday (Mar 2).  Some outcomes that bump UND’s PWR upward in the short run, e.g. SCSU over Denver, may actually prove undesirable in the long-run.

Team to cheer for / how much their outcome will affect UND’s PWR this week:

AA vs Alaska (1.57 w/sweep, 1.03 w/1 win)
Princeton to lose vs Harvard/Dartmouth (1.13 lose both, .70 lose one)
SCSU vs. Denver(1.08 w/sweep, .25 w/1 win)
Ohio St vs Miami (.79 w/sweep, .58 w/1 win)
Merrimack vs UNH (.77 w/sweep, .54 w/1 win)
Maine vs Vermont (.79 w/sweep, .21 w/1 win)
UMN vs UMD (.69 w/sweep, .47 w/1 win)
Mich St vs Notre Dame (.65 w/sweep, .05 w/1 win)
Mass. Lowell vs Northeastern (.57 w/sweep, .18 w/1 win)

Season outlook

At least splitting the remaining four games is required to be in the relatively safe part of PWR. As was noted by farce poobah in the forum, “Given the likelihood that CCHA, Hockey East, and ECAC also may have upset winners, I think you have to be inside #10 to really be comfortable.”

Chat about this

There’s a good thread going on the forum discussing these forecasts. There are a lot of smart people who have gone into a lot more depth than I can in these articles, so stop by, read, chat, and ask questions.

(PWR) PairWise Rankings – 2009

For an explanation of this forecast, see previous weeks’ posts.

UND’s PWR after this weekend

The chart below shows three forecasts for UND’s PWR as of next Monday. The forecasts show the probability distributions of UND’s PWR for each of three potential scenarios — UND’s sweeps, UND splits, and UND loses both. The probabilities are derived from KRACH-based predictions for the non-UND games.

UND loses both — 62% chance of PWR being 16-17
UND splits — 90% chance of PWR being 12-14
UND sweeps — 60% chance of PWR being 9-10

Who else to cheer for

In order of importance to UND’s PWR, here’s what to cheer for this weekend. How many of these hit or miss is a pretty indicator of where UND will fall on the above curves.

Cornell to lose swept by Rennselaer/Union (boosts UND’s PWR 1.04)
Princeton to lose swept by Brown/Yale (boosts UND’s PWR .84)
Michigan Tech (at least 1) over Minnesota-Duluth (boosts UND’s PWR .48; .64 with a sweep)
Michigan (at least 1) over Ohio State (boost UND’s PWR .50; .62 with a sweep)
Colorado College (at least 1) over Minnesota (boosts UND’s PWR .43; .50 with a sweep)
Northern Michigan (sweep) over Miami (boosts UND’s PWR .45; UND harmed .02 with a single win)
Boston College (at least 1) over New Hampshire (boosts UND’s PWR .38; .43 with a sweep)
Wisconsin (at least 1) over Denver (boosts UND’s PWR .33; .41 with a sweep)

November 14th, 2008. The Alaska-Anchorage Seawolves jumped out to a 3-0 lead against North Dakota at Ralph Engelstad Arena. Sioux freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness entered the game in place of senior Aaron Walski and held UAA scoreless the rest of the way. UND fell short, losing 3-2, but with Eidsness starting in net the next night, the Sioux took down Anchorage 3-1 to gain a split of the weekend series.

Since that series, Eidsness has started every game for North Dakota. The Fighting Sioux are 15-5-3 in those games and tied for first place in the WCHA. In that same span, Alaska-Anchorage has gone 4-10-3 and fallen to ninth place in the league standings.

In the early part of the season, UAA was blistering hot on the power play. In that weekend series in Grand Forks, North Dakota successfully killed all eleven Seawolves power play opportunities, scored a short-handed goal, and tallied three goals with the man advantage. The Fighting Sioux will see plenty of power play opportunities this weekend, and special teams play will be key to any success UND may have in the land where “you can see Russia from my house”.

On the injury front, Sioux defenseman Derrick LaPoint is out for the season after suffering a broken leg against MSU-Mankato. Freshman defenseman Ben Blood will play this weekend, and fellow blueliner Zach Jones appears ready to return from injury. Corey Feinhage also made the trip to Anchorage and could start if necessary.

Up front, Brett Hextall could possibly go this weekend. Brent Davidson traveled as the thirteenth forward and would be inserted into the lineup if Hextall is unable to play.

Alaska Anchorage Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Shyiak (4th season at UAA, 36-82-19, .332)
This Season: 10-13-5 Overall, 7-12-5 WCHA (9th)
National Ranking: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: NR
Team Offense: 2.64 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.21 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 14.1% (21 of 149)
Penalty Kill: 77.2% (149 of 193)
Last Season: 7-21-8 Overall, 3-19-6 WCHA (10th)
Key Players: Junior F Kevin Clark (6-14-20), Junior F Paul Crowder (12-15-27), Sophomore F Tommy Grant (14-7-21), Junior F Josh Lunden (10-5-15), Freshman D Curtis Leinweber (2-9-11), Sophomore G Bryce Christianson (5-5-4, 2.66 GAA, .890 SV)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 124-67-18, .636)
This Season: 18-11-3 Overall, 13-6-3 WCHA (1st)
National Rankings: #9/#9
PairWise Ranking: 12th
Team Offense: 3.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.69 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.8% (41 of 218)
Penalty Kill: 85.7% (144 of 168)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (13-13-26), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (10-14-24), Senior F/D Brad Miller (6-19-25), Sophomore F Matt Frattin (12-7-19), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-26-28), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (18-8-3, 2.47 GAA, .909 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 15, 2008 (Grand Forks, ND). It was a “special” 3-1 victory as North Dakota scored two power play goals, added a shorthanded tally, and held the Seawolves scoreless on seven power plays. Anchorage won Friday’s opener, 3-2.

Last Meeting in Anchorage: November 18, 2006. The Seawolves scored the last three goals of the hockey game and defeated the visiting Sioux 4-2. Anchorage picked up the series sweep after downing North Dakota 6-2 on Friday. In Friday’s game, UAA scored the last five goals after UND jumped out to a 2-1 lead.

Most Important Meeting: March 19, 2004 (St. Paul, MN). The Fighting Sioux and Seawolves met in the semifinal round of the WCHA Final Five, and UND cruised to the championship game with a 4-2 victory.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 37-16-3 (.688), although UAA holds a 13-12-0 advantage in games played in Anchorage. The Seawolves have won four of their past five home games against North Dakota.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has not lost this season when leading after one period of play (10-0-1). UAA sophomore forward Tommy Grant has scored 14 goals this season and is the third-leading goal scorer in the WCHA. UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in 29 consecutive games (including 28 starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Peter Waselovich, who played in a school-record 32 straight games during UND’s 1973-74 season. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 17th on the Fighting Sioux career scoring list, five points behind current UND assistant coach Cary Eades (1978-82). The Seawolves have not lost a game this season (8-0-3) when allowing two or fewer goals.

The Prediction

Historically, this has not been an easy series for UND. Even though the teams are headed in opposite directions, I don’t expect more than a split out of this weekend. UAA 3-2, UND 4-1.

Fighting Sioux head coach Dave Hakstol’s teams have earned a reputation as second-half squads. In Hakstol’s five years at UND, his winning percentage has been significantly better once the calendar turns to the new year. Why do the Sioux seem to surge in the second half? Are there other factors that contribute to early-season struggles? And what should we expect from this year’s North Dakota team down the stretch?

Before we get to this year’s team, let’s look back at the previous four years under Dave Hakstol. For simplicity’s sake, I used January 1st as the midway point for analysis. First, individually:

2004-05 Sioux: First half 13-7-2, Second half 12-8-3 (7-1-1 in March 2005)
2005-06 Sioux: First half 13-8-1, Second half 16-8-0 (8-1-0 in March 2006)
2006-07 Sioux: First half 9-10-1, Second half 15-4-4 (6-1-1 in March 2007)
2007-08 Sioux: First half 9-7-1, Second half 19-4-3 (7-2-2 in March 2008)

And combined 2004-08: First half 44-32-5 (.574), Second half 62-24-8 (.702), 28-5-4 (.811) in March

As you can see, the first two seasons do not necessarily fit the category of “second half surges”. It is interesting to note, however, that in both of those years, the record in the month of March was significantly better than the rest of the season.

The first season where the phrase “second half surge” became widely used was in 2006-07. Not only did the Sioux only lose four games from January until April, the team went on an 11 game unbeaten streak (8-0-3) in January and February. And last year’s North Dakota club went 18 games without a loss (15-0-3) in the second half, again collecting only four losses after New Year’s Day.

And this year’s squad:

2008-09 Sioux: First half 9-10-1, Second Half 12-1-3

The latest version of the second half surge produced an eight game unbeaten streak (6-0-2) in January and a current seven game unbeaten streak (6-0-1).

Each team has its own personality, makeup, and character, but there seems to be a common thread running through Dave Hakstol’s tenure at North Dakota: early season struggles and growing pains lead to consistency in the second half, culminating in an excellent winning percentage during tournament time.

What factors contribute to the early season struggles? For me, it boils down to a team’s identity. Included in that are several questions:

What type of team will each year’s roster become?
Who will handle the goaltending duties?
What types of injuries will they have to overcome?
With early departures, how long will it take the returning players to find and define roles?
Will the incoming freshman class contribute?
Who will handle the key special teams roles, and how long before those units find success?

I’m not suggesting that North Dakota is the only school that has to handle these issues each season; I’m simply bringing them up in an attempt to illustrate that coaching is not an exact science. There is no “magic button”, it’s a process. Early on, I heard Hakstol comment many times that despite the losses, he liked this team and believed that they were very close to playing up to their capabilities.

The biggest factors for this season’s early struggles were goaltending and injuries.

The rotation of Eidsness and Walski did not work out very well. Before Eidsness became the full-time starter on November 15th, UND was 4-6-0. Since then, the Fighting Sioux are 14-5-3. In 23 games as the number-one goaltender, the freshman Eidsness has allowed more than three goals just once, a 7-4 home victory against St. Cloud State.

The biggest injury in the first half was to senior defenseman Joe Finley. Finley was injured on October 11th and did not return to the lineup until December 27th. His injury necessitated fellow defensemen Chay Genoway and Zach Jones to play through injuries in first half and forced freshmen Ben Blood and Corey Fienhage into the lineup. It’s interesting to note that while Finley was out of the lineup, UND allowed 2.94 goals per game. Since his return, that number has dropped to 2.28.

That decline is not all related to Joe Finley; UND’s defense and goaltending have been better overall in the second half. But Finley’s return allows the other defensemen to play their roles and reunites Finley with Chay Genoway, a very successful defensive pairing from last season.

Derrick LaPoint’s season-ending injury throws a wrench into the defensive corps for the remainder of this year. Senior defenseman Zach Jones has been out for a few weeks with an unspecified injury, and if he is unable to go, freshman Corey Fienhage would step into the lineup. Fellow freshman Ben Blood has appeared in 20 games this season and has elevated his game in the second half.

The rest of this discussion is up to you. Is there truth to the second half surge? Is it math or myth? And what do you expect from this year’s team the rest of the way? Leave your comments and let me know what you think.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions.

The Fighting Sioux and Mavericks have both built a reputation as tough, physical hockey teams. The last time these two teams played a regular-season series in Grand Forks, five players were ejected for fighting in the first game. Tensions from that game spilled over into the following season when Rylan Kaip finally squared off against Trevor Bruess after waiting eleven months for the opportunity.

On paper, MSU-M and UND have very similar special teams percentages, but Mankato spends much more time killing penalties, while North Dakota finds itself on the power play much more frequently. The breakdown:

MSU-Mankato: 5.76 power plays per game, 6.79 penalty kills per game
North Dakota: 6.70 power plays per game, 5.27 penalty kills per game

The teams have combined for 13 shorthanded goals this season, including three by the Mavs’ Zach Harrison against UND in the WCHA opener for both schools.

In the impossible-to-predict race for home ice in the conference playoffs, the Mavericks are currently in eighth place but could move up to fourth with a sweep of North Dakota. UND would find itself in first place with a sweep and a Denver loss this weekend.

Minnesota State University Mankato Team Profile

Head Coach: Troy Jutting (9th season at MSUM, 140-158-41, .473)
This Season: 13-13-3 Overall, 9-11-2 WCHA (8th)
National Rankings: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: 24th
Team Offense: 3.17 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.10 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.8% (33 of 167)
Penalty Kill: 79.7% (157 of 197)
Last Season: 19-16-4, 12-12-4 WCHA (4th)
Key Players: Senior F Mick Berge (6-19-25), Junior F Trevor Bruess (10-4-14), Sophomore F Mick Louwerse (12-12-24), Sophomore D Kurt Davis (6-22-28), Senior G Mike Zacharias (12-10-3, 2.95 GAA, .904 SV)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 122-67-18, .633)
This Season: 16-11-3 Overall, 11-6-3 WCHA (3rd)
National Rankings: #11/#11
PairWise Ranking: 16th
Team Offense: 3.47 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.73 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.4% (37 of 201)
Penalty Kill: 85.4% (135 of 158)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (12-11-23), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (9-12-21), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-19-23), Sophomore F Matt Frattin (12-7-19), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-25-27), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (16-8-3, 2.51 GAA, .909 SV)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: October 18, 2008 (Mankato, MN). North Dakota scored three power play goals in the third period to knot the game at 3-3 and Chris Vandevelde scored a shorthanded goal with under ten seconds remaining for a 4-3 victory. The Mavericks won Friday’s opener 5-1, largely due to Zach Harrison’s shorthanded hat trick.

Last meeting in Grand Forks: March 10, 2007. The Fighting Sioux held on for a 2-1 victory and a sweep of the WCHA first round playoff series. North Dakota won the opener, 5-2.

All-time record: UND leads the all-time series 29-10-7 (.707), including a 17-6-3 record (.712) in Grand Forks. Remarkably, 10 of the 44 games played between the two teams have come in the WCHA playoffs, with North Dakota winning eight of those ten games.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has not lost this season when leading after one period of play (9-0-1). UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in 27 consecutive games (including 26 starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Peter Waselovich, who played in a school-record 32 straight games during UND’s 1973-74 season. Maverick freshman forward Mike Louewerse (12-12-24) ranks third in the WCHA in rookie scoring. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 18th on the Fighting Sioux career scoring list, one point behind David Hoogsteen (1995-99). UND is three points behind league leaders Denver and Wisconsin. The Pioneers play one game this weekend (at Colorado College), while the Badgers are idle. A Sioux sweep coupled with a Denver loss would put North Dakota in first place with three weeks remaining in the regular season. UND and MSU-M are two of the three teams (along with Wisconsin) that have swept a weekend series from Minnesota in 2009.

The Prediction

Both teams have a lot to play for, and a split is likely. But North Dakota has been rolling four lines effectively and playing well at home, so I’m looking for the Fighting Sioux to take three points. UND 5-3, 3-3 tie.

The bye week predictions’ results were again solid — the results went slightly against the “cheer for” recommendations so UND ended up at the bottom of the expected curve (keep in mind the predictions were through Monday, pre-Beanpot finale, at which time UND’s PWR was #16).

Without further ado…

Effect on PWR of this weekend’s games

UND wins 0: 78% of being #17-#18, 98% chance of being #16-#19
UND splits: 44% of being #16, 96% chance of being #15-#17
UND sweeps: 73% of being #11-#13, 89% chance of being #10-#14

Other teams to cheer for (or against) this weekend

Mass.-Lowell sweeping Boston College gives UND an average .88 bump in PWR ranking
Providence sweeping New Hampshire gives UND an average .86 bump in PWR ranking
Michigan St. sweeping Ohio St. gives UND an average .82 bump in PWR ranking
Alaska-Anchorage sweeping Minnesota gives UND an average .77 bump in PWR ranking

And a special split cheer against:

Yale losing to RPI and Union gives UND a .79 bump

Likely PWR outcomes for regular season based on remaining UND outcomes

Winning 6 of its remaining 8 is the worst UND can do and still stand over a 50% chance of being #13 or higher in the PWR at the end of the regular season.