A Ralph Engelstad Arena official, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that another beverage size and price adjustment was in the works for next season. The two tap beer sizes will change to 12 ounces and 8 ounces, with a price tag of 12 dollars and 8 dollars, respectively. “We’re not giving anyone a discount for drinking more beer,” he said. “It’ll be a buck an ounce, plain and simple.”
NCAA Northeast Regional Preview: North Dakota vs. Yale
Last season, the high-flying Yale Bulldogs cruised to the ECAC regular season and playoff championships and were averaging 4.67 goals per game heading into the NCAA tournament. Their first round opponent was Vermont, and the Catamounts stifled and stymied the host Bulldogs, 4-1.
If KRACH is an indication of the strength of teams in each conference, then (aside from #13 Cornell), Yale played a season against squads comparable to Alaska-Anchorage (#32 KRACH) and Michigan Tech (#48). In a full season against the likes of #28 Union , #33 St. Lawrence, #34 Quinnipiac, #35 Rensselaer, #36 Colgate, #40 Princeton, #44 Brown, #46 Dartmouth, #47 Harvard, and #50 Clarkson, the Bulldogs put up impressive offensive numbers: 4.09 goals/game and a power play that converted at a 23.5% clip. But against those same opponents, Yale also allowed almost three goals per game.
Or put more simply, here is the comparison between North Dakota and Yale:
Yale (Strength of Schedule #37): 4.09 goals scored/game, 2.94 goals allowed/game
UND (Strength of Schedule #2): 3.29 goals scored/game, 2.10 goals allowed/game
The question is this: which team will be able to play its style and take away time and space from their opponent?
In the first three months after Chay Genoway’s injury, the Fighting Sioux struggled to a 6-10-4 mark. Since that time, North Dakota has been on a mission, winning 12 of its last 13 games and outscoring opponents 55-22 during that stretch. UND has seen improvement in all areas, but most notably goaltending and team defense.
The Green and White are deep, talented, and rugged up front, and penalty trouble seems to be the only thing that can derail North Dakota’s momentum.
Yale suffered its own blow on the injury front, losing senior forward Sean Backman (21 goals and 14 assists in 29 games) for the season to a non-hockey related foot injury. Backman was voted to the all-ECAC first team and was named Ivy League Player of the Year.
Yale Team Profile
Head Coach: Keith Allain (4th season at Yale, 71-48-12, .588)
NCAA Tournament Appearances: 4, most recently 2009
National Titles: None
This Season: 20-9-3, 15-5-2 ECAC (1st)
National Rankings: #8/#8
PairWise Ranking: 9th
Team Offense: 4.09 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.94 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.5% (44 of 187)
Penalty Kill: 81.8% (126 of 154)
Last Season: 24-8-2 overall (NCAA East Regional semifinalist), 15-5-2 ECAC (1st)
Key Players: Junior F Broc Little (26-14-40), Sophomore F Brian O’Neill (14-25-39), Junior F Denny Kearney (9-25-34), Senior D Thomas Dignard (6-20-26), Junior D Jimmy Martin (2-15-17), Senior G Billy Blasé (7-2-0, 2.37 GAA, .901 SV%)
North Dakota Team Profile
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 155-83-24, .637)
NCAA tournament appearances: 25, most recently 2009
National Titles: 7, most recently 2000
National Ranking: #4/#4
PairWise Ranking: 5th
This Season: 22-12-5, 15-10-3 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.29 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.10 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.2% (42 of 208)
Penalty Kill: 86.3% (170 of 197)
Key Players: Senior F Chris VandeVelde (16-25-41), Sophomore F Jason Gregoire (20-17-37), Freshman F Danny Kristo (15-21-36), Junior F Evan Trupp (8-26-34), Junior D Derrick LaPoint (2-20-22), Junior D Jake Marto (5-13-18), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (24-9-4, 2.09 GAA, .915 SV%, 3 SO)
By The Numbers
Last Meeting: November 1, 2003 (Grand Forks, ND). The Fighting Sioux crushed the visiting Bulldogs 10-0 to complete the two game sweep. Brady Murray scored the game winner 13 seconds into the first period, and Zach Parise led the way with a hat trick and an assist. UND won Friday’s opener, 8-4, behind two goals each from Brandon Bochenski and Quinn Fylling. Eight future NHL players were in uniform for North Dakota in that series.
Most Important Meeting: January 1, 1960 (Troy, NY). In the only tournament game these two teams have ever played, North Dakota trounced Yale 15-0 in the RPI holiday tourney,
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 5-0-0.
Game News and Notes
North Dakota senior forward Chris VandeVelde (117 career points) needs two points to crack the top 50 on UND’s all-time scoring list. Yale has the nation’s second best power play (23.5%). The Fighting Sioux have scored five shorthanded goals over the past thirteen games. UND is 3-0 all-time in NCAA tournament games played in Worcester, MA. Yale head coach Keith Allain was born and raised in Worcester.
The Prediction
Yale hasn’t seen a team like North Dakota all season, and the Fighting Sioux are on a roll. If it’s a parade to the penalty box, things could get interesting, but UND is too deep and too focused for the Bulldogs. North Dakota 4, Yale 2.
Bonus Predictions
In the other regional semifinal, Alaska is a better team than most fans give them credit for, but a date with Boston College seems like destiny (and could be payback) for North Dakota. Boston College 3, Alaska 2.
In the other regionals, I have:
Wisconsin over St. Cloud State in the West Regional final
Denver over New Hampshire in the East Regional final
Miami over Michigan in the Midwest Regional final
Thank you for reading. Check back on Sunday for a preview of the Northeast Regional final.
Sioux fan tournament prediction bias
One of my favorite parts about SiouxSports.com NCAA Hockey Bracket Challenge (did anyone else notice how EVERYONE is trying to do their own this year? Imitation and flattery and all that…) is seeing what Sioux fans pick. It’s an interesting barometer of their optimism and outlook on various teams and conferences.
The aggregate picks are available, and I’ve also compared them to the previously posted KRACH predictions.
Some takeaways:
- 99.4% of Sioux fans pick UND to beat Yale, a figure 26% higher than KRACH. Lest one conclude that all Sioux fans are always homers, only 65% picked UND to beat UNH last year, despite KRACH calling it a draw.
- The biggest difference between Sioux fans’ picks and KRACH isn’t the UND game, it’s BC over Alaska. 92.5% of Sioux fans pick BC, while KRACH predicts the game 62%-38% in favor of BC. This is the largest spread between Sioux fans picks and KRACH probabilities in the last three years.
- Other than their love (fear?) of BC, Sioux fans have no respect for Hockey East. 73% picked Cornell to beat UNH, despite Cornell being 47%-53% underdogs in KRACH; 98% picked Wisconsin to beat Vermont, despite Wisconsin only being 70%-30% favorites in KRACH.
KRACH predicts the NCAA tournament
This may help you in your Bracket Challenge entry…
Here’s how KRACH predicts the NCAA tournament:
KRACH predicts NCAA 2010 Hockey Tournament
A few observations:
- The Northeast is, as speculated, the bracket of death
- UND is the only #2 seed picked as most likely to emerge from its bracket
- RIT over Denver (9%) edges out Alabama Huntsville over Miami (10%) as least likely upset.
Of course, there’s a reason they still play the games. The least likely upset last year? Bemidji St over Notre Dame at 10%. Bemidji St won 5-1, then went on to beat Cornell to visit the Frozen Four.
First look at end of Friday night PWR possibilities
Assuming Michigan and Maine hold on for their respective wins (UND’s win is in the books), I think the remaining possibilities will be:
Denver 1-2
Miami 1-2
UW 3-5
UND 3-6
SCSU 4-6
Boston College 3-6
UMD 14-19
Northern Michigan 8-11
Ferris State 8-15
CC 20-24
New Hampshire 10-14
UMN 24-25
Bemidji State 7-8
Alaska 11-16
Vermont 13-17
Michigan 12-20
Michigan State 16-20
Nebraska-Omaha 20-22
Cornell 7-12
Maine 12-19
Boston University 20-23
Mass.-Lowell 20-25
Yale 8-11
Massachusetts 17-20 or N/TUC
Union 15-20 or 23-24
RIT 25-N/TUC
PWR possibilities Friday morning update
Duluth losing had the biggest impact on… Duluth.
However, contrary to popular wisdom, I still see Duluth as possibly getting in. I’m getting a 1/220 chance of UMD finishing #12 and a 1/25 chance of UMD finishing #13 or higher.
Here’s the rub, and why no one else agrees with me — I can’t duplicate it on either the USCHO or CHN calculators right now. I have a theory that involves both of those sites having broken calculators and sufficient hubris that I’m willing to make this post, but it’s certainly still possible the error is on my end, so don’t get too excited about this until that problem has been resolved.
Denver 1-2
Miami 1-3
UW 2-5
UND 3-6
SCSU 4-10
Boston College 3-9
UMD 12-19
Northern Michigan 6-19
Ferris State 5-17
CC 18-25
New Hampshire 10-18
UMN 20-25
Bemidji State 5-10
Alaska 10-17
Vermont 6-19
Michigan 10-25
Michigan State 13-21
Nebraska-Omaha 18-24
Cornell 5-19
Maine 12-24
Boston University 13-24
Mass.-Lowell 18-25
Yale 7-12
Northeastern 25-N/TUC
Massachusetts 16-20 or N/TUC
Union 12-N/TUC
St. Lawrence 24-N/TUC
RIT 21-N/TUC
10:00ET Update… CHN seems to have made a fix to their calculator as of about 10am ET. Here’s what I think USCHO and CHN were both doing wrong: I think they were adding whatever results you selected on the form to their records of season results to date. However, even after recording the UND/UMD result they left the UND/UMD game on the form, so when you chose UND as the winner of the UND/UMD game, that game was getting double counted. That exaggerated the harm to UMD and made it seem like the Bulldogs couldn’t advance.
It’s still pretty unlikely, but here’s a scenario under which the CHN calculator now shows the Bulldogs advance:
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Vermont defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Championship game: Vermont defeats Maine.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: St. Lawrence defeats Union.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Brown defeats Cornell.
* ECAC Championship game: Brown defeats St. Lawrence.
* ECAC Consolation game: Union defeats Cornell.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Canisius.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats RIT.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Northern Michigan defeats Ferris State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Northern Michigan defeats Miami.
* CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Ferris State.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Denver.
* WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Consolation game: Denver defeats Wisconsin.
1:35pm update USCHO is now also fixed
WCHA Final Five Preview: UND vs. Minnesota-Duluth
When these two teams met in Grand Forks in February, Duluth was ranked #6 and was in the top ten in the Pairwise rankings, while North Dakota was ranked #11 and, at 13th in the Pairwise, was squarely on the bubble for the national tournament.
In February and March, North Dakota has gone 9-2-0, while Minnesota-Duluth staggered to the finish line with a 5-6-0 mark over the same time span. Two of North Dakota’s victories came during a home sweep of UMD during which the Fighting Sioux outscored the Bulldogs, 10-3. North Dakota and Minnesota-Duluth have switched positions in the race for the NCAAs.
Coming into the weekend, North Dakota can finish no lower than 6th in the Pairwise and is a lock for the NCAA tournament. Duluth can finish as high as 5th or as low as 19th. The Bulldogs could make it easy by winning the Broadmoor for the second consecutive year; otherwise, it might be a restless Saturday night for Scott Sandelin’s squad.
North Dakota junior forward Matt Frattin collected four goals last weekend against Minnesota. He also collected a five minute major penalty for charging and a one game suspension from the league office. The Fighting Sioux will also be without the services of freshman defenseman Joe Gleason (undisclosed injury). Expect to see Carter Rowney in for Frattin and Corey Fienhage supplanting Gleason when the Green and White hit the ice in St. Paul on Thursday night.
Minnesota-Duluth Team Profile
Head Coach: Scott Sandelin (10th season at UMD, 166-189-46, .471)
This Season: 22-16-1 Overall, 16-11-1 WCHA (t-5th)
National Rankings: #11/#11
PairWise Ranking: t-11th
Team Offense: 3.23 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.74 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.5% (55 of 234)
Penalty Kill: 82.3% (167 of 203)
Last Season: 22-13-8 Overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 10-11-7 WCHA
Key Players: Sophomore F Jack Connolly (18-31-49), Junior F Justin Fontaine (21-25-46), Junior F Rob Bordson (12-28-40), Sophomore F Mike Connolly (14-26-40), Sophomore D Brady Lamb (11-13-24), Junior G Kenny Reiter (13-9-0, 2.38 GAA, .910 SV%, 3 SO)
North Dakota Team Profile
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 152-83-24, .633)
National Ranking: #5/#5
PairWise Ranking: t-4th
This Season: 22-12-5, 15-10-3 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.26 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.10 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.2% (42 of 208)
Penalty Kill: 86.3% (170 of 197)
Key Players: Sophomore F Jason Gregoire (19-16-35), Senior F Chris VandeVelde (14-22-36), Freshman F Danny Kristo (14-19-33), Junior F Evan Trupp (5-23-28), Junior D Jake Marto (5-11-16), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (21-9-4, 2.09 GAA, .914 SV%, 2 SO)
By The Numbers
Last Meeting: February 20, 2010 (Grand Forks). Mario Lamoureux came back from a one game suspension and single-handedly downed the visiting Bulldogs with his two goals. North Dakota won the series finale 5-1 after downing UMD in the opener, 5-2.
Last Meeting at the WCHA Final Five: March 20, 2009 (St. Paul). North Dakota was the second of three victims of the Alex Stalock Express, falling 3-0 to the eventual tournament champions. Duluth became the only team in Final Five history to capture the Broadmoor trophy after participating in the Thursday play-in game.
Most Important Meeting: March 22, 1984 (Lake Placid, NY) Minnesota-Duluth and North Dakota met in the national semifinal game, with the Bulldogs defeating the Fighting Sioux 2-1 in overtime to advance to the championship. UND went on to defeat Michigan State 6-5 (OT) for third place, while Duluth fell to Bowling Green 5-4 in four overtimes, the longest championship game ever played.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 128-70-8 (.641), although Duluth holds a 2-1-1 (.625) edge in games on neutral ice.
Last Ten: North Dakota is 5-4-1 (.550) in the last ten games between the teams.
Game News and Notes
North Dakota senior forward Chris VandeVelde needs four points to move into a tie with Zach Parise on UND’s career scoring list. Minnesota-Duluth has gone 82 games without being shut out, and has blanked nine opponents in that span. If North Dakota advances to Friday’s semifinal, expect to see Aaron Dell between the pipes. Coming into this year, Bulldog winger Rob Bordson had played in 42 games and notched one goal and six assists. This season, he’s put up 12 goals and 28 assists in 39 games.
The Prediction
Having Frattin (suspension), Gleason (undisclosed injury), and Genoway (concussion) out of the lineup will test UND’s depth. As with so many playoff games, this one will come down to special teams and goaltending. The crowd will definitely be a factor, and I can’t see North Dakota’s run coming to an end just yet. UND 3-2.
Bonus Final Five Predictions:
Friday afternoon: Wisconsin 4, St. Cloud State 2
Friday evening: Denver 4, North Dakota 3
Saturday afternoon: North Dakota 2, St. Cloud State 2
Saturday evening: Wisconsin 3, Denver 2
Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.
Without Genoway, UND’s blueliners have held their own
Despite only having senior defenseman Chay Genoway for 9 out of the 39 games played to this point, this year’s D corps have surpassed last year in a number of different areas.
For the entire 2008-2009 season (43 games), Fighting Sioux blueliners scored 13 goals and added 55 assists for 68 points. This year, through 39 games (and with between 2 and 7 games left to play), Sioux defensemen have potted 16 goals and 58 assists for 74 points.
(Genoway’s four goals and six assists are included in this season’s total)
On the defensive side of the ice, this year’s squad is allowing 2.10 goals per game on 23.9 shots.
Last year’s team allowed 2.74 goals per game on 26.9 shots.
Certainly some of this is goaltender Brad Eidness, whose numbers compare as follows:
Freshman year (08-09): 24-12-4, 2.56 GAA, .906 SV%, 1 SO
Sophomore year (09-10): 21-9-4, 2.09 GAA, .914 SV%, 2 SO
It’s taken a while for the other Sioux defensemen to adjust to Genoway’s absence, but this team’s recent stretch of nine victories in ten games is a testament to how well the unit has stepped up, adjusted, and filled roles and minutes that underclassmen typically don’t play in the WCHA.
Another key is that both Joe Gleason and Andrew MacWilliam, although freshmen, have played in all 39 games this season, joining Derrick LaPoint and Ben Blood as the four blueliners who have not missed a start (Jake Marto did not play on March 6th against Michigan Tech).
Another injury note: Joe Gleason (nine assists) is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury and is not expected to play in Thursday’s play-in game versus Minnesota-Duluth. Corey Fienhage, who played 26 games in Genoway’s absence before Brent Davidson took his spot in the lineup for the past 5 games, will be back in against the Bulldogs.
I’m not suggesting that North Dakota is fine without Genoway (and now Gleason), or that the team doesn’t miss his presence in the lineup; this is just a way of looking at an injury/hole in the lineup as someone else’s opportunity to step up.
On the other hand, we can only imagine what Genoway in the lineup for 30 more games may have meant to this team’s record, eventual tournament seed, and chances of winning a national championship.
Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.
Non-UND PWR Possibilities
UND’s possible PWR outcomes are pretty predictable at this point, but that doesn’t mean there’s no excitement. Quite a few more teams than intuition might suggest are capable of falling out of the tournament field.
Here are the possible final PWR ranges for each team that’s still a possible TUC. There could be some extreme outlying possibility that I’m not catching, but these already show a lot more possible movement than I’ve seen speculated elsewhere…
| Denver | 1-3 |
| Miami | 1-3 |
| UW | 1-5 |
| UND | 3-6 |
| SCSU | 4-11 |
| Boston College | 3-9 |
| UMD | 5-19 |
| Northern Michigan | 6-19 |
| Ferris State | 5-18 |
| CC | 18-25 |
| New Hampshire | 10-18 |
| UMN | 20-25 |
| Bemidji State | 5-11 |
| Alaska | 10-18 |
| Vermont | 6-19 |
| Michigan | 10-25 |
| Michigan State | 12-21 |
| Nebraska-Omaha | 18-24 |
| Cornell | 5-19 |
| Maine | 11-25 |
| Boston University | 12-25 |
| Mass.-Lowell | 18-25 |
| Ohio State | 24-N/TUC |
| Yale | 7-13 |
| Northeastern | 25-N/TUC |
| Massachusetts | 16-20 or N/TUC |
| Union | 11-N/TUC |
| St. Lawrence | 23-N/TUC |
| RIT | 20-N/TUC |
If you want a probability distribution chart for one of these or having trouble working out the scenario, just let me know and I can help out.
Resources
- PWR Forum thread – already contains lots of discussion about exactly what needs to happen for UND to achieve each ranking
- You Are the Committee – Run your own PWR scenarios
One last look at PWR
Look back
I should have done this last week, but the end of the season is a good time to look back at the first end of season prediction. With 8 games remaining, I predicted the following:
UND went on to win 7 of its last 8 and landed at #5 in the PWR.
As for last week’s forecast, landing at 5 or 6 were the most likely outcomes for winning the series in 3.
Look forward
This one is a little boring. Unlike last season when the forecast surprisingly revealed that UND could land anywhere from #3 to #13, this year the possibilities are exactly what a human using the You Are The Committee tool would deduce: UND can land anywhere from #3 to #6. Winning it all is required to climb to #3 and would ensure a finish no lower than #5, otherwise #4 to #6 is possible.
The only interesting, though not surprising, thing to note is that UND is likely to finish slightly higher if they lose the play-in than if they win the play-in but go on to lose two. Of course, at this point in the season the absolute ranking is a lot less important than the bracket implications, for which you have to check out some other resources…
Other resources
- PWR Forum thread – already contains lots of discussion about exactly what needs to happen for UND to achieve each ranking
- You Are the Committee – Run your own PWR scenarios