Sioux Sports Talk

Assuming Michigan and Maine hold on for their respective wins (UND’s win is in the books), I think the remaining possibilities will be:

Denver 1-2
Miami 1-2
UW 3-5
UND 3-6
SCSU 4-6
Boston College 3-6
UMD 14-19
Northern Michigan 8-11
Ferris State 8-15
CC 20-24
New Hampshire 10-14
UMN 24-25
Bemidji State 7-8
Alaska 11-16
Vermont 13-17
Michigan 12-20
Michigan State 16-20
Nebraska-Omaha 20-22
Cornell 7-12
Maine 12-19
Boston University 20-23
Mass.-Lowell 20-25
Yale 8-11
Massachusetts 17-20 or N/TUC
Union 15-20 or 23-24
RIT 25-N/TUC

Duluth losing had the biggest impact on… Duluth.

However, contrary to popular wisdom, I still see Duluth as possibly getting in. I’m getting a 1/220 chance of UMD finishing #12 and a 1/25 chance of UMD finishing #13 or higher.

Here’s the rub, and why no one else agrees with me — I can’t duplicate it on either the USCHO or CHN calculators right now. I have a theory that involves both of those sites having broken calculators and sufficient hubris that I’m willing to make this post, but it’s certainly still possible the error is on my end, so don’t get too excited about this until that problem has been resolved.
Denver 1-2
Miami 1-3
UW 2-5
UND 3-6
SCSU 4-10
Boston College 3-9
UMD 12-19
Northern Michigan 6-19
Ferris State 5-17
CC 18-25
New Hampshire 10-18
UMN 20-25
Bemidji State 5-10
Alaska 10-17
Vermont 6-19
Michigan 10-25
Michigan State 13-21
Nebraska-Omaha 18-24
Cornell 5-19
Maine 12-24
Boston University 13-24
Mass.-Lowell 18-25
Yale 7-12
Northeastern 25-N/TUC
Massachusetts 16-20 or N/TUC
Union 12-N/TUC
St. Lawrence 24-N/TUC
RIT 21-N/TUC

10:00ET Update… CHN seems to have made a fix to their calculator as of about 10am ET. Here’s what I think USCHO and CHN were both doing wrong: I think they were adding whatever results you selected on the form to their records of season results to date. However, even after recording the UND/UMD result they left the UND/UMD game on the form, so when you chose UND as the winner of the UND/UMD game, that game was getting double counted. That exaggerated the harm to UMD and made it seem like the Bulldogs couldn’t advance.

CHN You are the Committee

It’s still pretty unlikely, but here’s a scenario under which the CHN calculator now shows the Bulldogs advance:

* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Vermont defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Championship game: Vermont defeats Maine.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: St. Lawrence defeats Union.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Brown defeats Cornell.
* ECAC Championship game: Brown defeats St. Lawrence.
* ECAC Consolation game: Union defeats Cornell.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Canisius.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats RIT.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Northern Michigan defeats Ferris State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Northern Michigan defeats Miami.
* CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Ferris State.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Denver.
* WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Consolation game: Denver defeats Wisconsin.

1:35pm update USCHO is now also fixed

USCHO Pairwise Predictor

Despite only having senior defenseman Chay Genoway for 9 out of the 39 games played to this point, this year’s D corps have surpassed last year in a number of different areas.

For the entire 2008-2009 season (43 games), Fighting Sioux blueliners scored 13 goals and added 55 assists for 68 points. This year, through 39 games (and with between 2 and 7 games left to play), Sioux defensemen have potted 16 goals and 58 assists for 74 points.

(Genoway’s four goals and six assists are included in this season’s total)

On the defensive side of the ice, this year’s squad is allowing 2.10 goals per game on 23.9 shots.
Last year’s team allowed 2.74 goals per game on 26.9 shots.

Certainly some of this is goaltender Brad Eidness, whose numbers compare as follows:

Freshman year (08-09): 24-12-4, 2.56 GAA, .906 SV%, 1 SO
Sophomore year (09-10): 21-9-4, 2.09 GAA, .914 SV%, 2 SO

It’s taken a while for the other Sioux defensemen to adjust to Genoway’s absence, but this team’s recent stretch of nine victories in ten games is a testament to how well the unit has stepped up, adjusted, and filled roles and minutes that underclassmen typically don’t play in the WCHA.

Another key is that both Joe Gleason and Andrew MacWilliam, although freshmen, have played in all 39 games this season, joining Derrick LaPoint and Ben Blood as the four blueliners who have not missed a start (Jake Marto did not play on March 6th against Michigan Tech).

Another injury note: Joe Gleason (nine assists) is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury and is not expected to play in Thursday’s play-in game versus Minnesota-Duluth. Corey Fienhage, who played 26 games in Genoway’s absence before Brent Davidson took his spot in the lineup for the past 5 games, will be back in against the Bulldogs.

I’m not suggesting that North Dakota is fine without Genoway (and now Gleason), or that the team doesn’t miss his presence in the lineup; this is just a way of looking at an injury/hole in the lineup as someone else’s opportunity to step up.

On the other hand, we can only imagine what Genoway in the lineup for 30 more games may have meant to this team’s record, eventual tournament seed, and chances of winning a national championship.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

UND’s possible PWR outcomes are pretty predictable at this point, but that doesn’t mean there’s no excitement. Quite a few more teams than intuition might suggest are capable of falling out of the tournament field.

Here are the possible final PWR ranges for each team that’s still a possible TUC. There could be some extreme outlying possibility that I’m not catching, but these already show a lot more possible movement than I’ve seen speculated elsewhere…

If you want a probability distribution chart for one of these or having trouble working out the scenario, just let me know and I can help out.

Resources

• PWR Forum thread – already contains lots of discussion about exactly what needs to happen for UND to achieve each ranking
• You Are the Committee – Run your own PWR scenarios

Look back

I should have done this last week, but the end of the season is a good time to look back at the first end of season prediction. With 8 games remaining, I predicted the following:

UND went on to win 7 of its last 8 and landed at #5 in the PWR.

As for last week’s forecast, landing at 5 or 6 were the most likely outcomes for winning the series in 3.

Look forward

This one is a little boring. Unlike last season when the forecast surprisingly revealed that UND could land anywhere from #3 to #13, this year the possibilities are exactly what a human using the You Are The Committee tool would deduce: UND can land anywhere from #3 to #6. Winning it all is required to climb to #3 and would ensure a finish no lower than #5, otherwise #4 to #6 is possible.

The only interesting, though not surprising, thing to note is that UND is likely to finish slightly higher if they lose the play-in than if they win the play-in but go on to lose two. Of course, at this point in the season the absolute ranking is a lot less important than the bracket implications, for which you have to check out some other resources…

Other resources

• PWR Forum thread – already contains lots of discussion about exactly what needs to happen for UND to achieve each ranking
• You Are the Committee – Run your own PWR scenarios

This one’s a little different because each team could play 2 or 3 games.

Due to limitations of the simulator, I assume that every series other than UND/Minnesota will finish in two games. So, the extremes of these predictions are about right, but the frequency distributions in the middle could be a little off.

Without further ado…


Overall Analysis

• If UND sweeps, the Sioux could finish the weekend #3 (2% chance).
• Even if UND were to get swept, the Sioux would be positioned for a pretty much guaranteed NCAA tournament berth if the season ended this weekend (>99% chance of being 11th or higher)
• Leaving this weekend a #1 seed is: 45% chance if the Sioux sweep, a 7% chance if the Sioux win in 3

Crazy Stuff

• If swept, the Sioux could still leave the weekend with a 1 seed. In one scenario out of a million, UND gets swept and finishes #4
• If swept, the Sioux have an equal chance (one scenario out of a million) to leave the weekend #13 and in peril of missing the NCAA tournament

Of course, whether UND advances or not, there will be more games played after this weekend that will continue to move PWR a bit.

That’s all for this post, but there’s always more PWR discussion in the PWR thread.

This weekend’s games will mark the 15th and 16th meetings between the two teams in the past three seasons. In addition to the normal league schedule, the two teams met at the Great Lakes Invitational in December 2008 and faced each other in the league playoffs each of the past two seasons. In the previous 14 games, North Dakota is 10-3-1 against Michigan Tech and has outscored the Huskies 49-21. Sixteen games in three seasons is believed to be the most against one opponent in that span.

In the past five contests between the schools, the Fighting Sioux have been even more dominant, winning all five and scoring 22 goals while allowing 7.

After opening 2010 with a record of 4-5-2, UND has reeled off five straight victories and secured home ice for the first round of the WCHA playoffs. Michigan Tech has clinched the title of “having to travel to Denver to face the #1 Pioneers and win two games to extend their season”. Two weeks ago, DU swept the visiting Huskies, 5-2 and 5-3.

Michigan Tech has been in a freefall for two years. After collecting 18 victories in 2006-07 and 14 in 07-08, the Huskies have posted a record of 11-51-8 over the past two seasons.

North Dakota can still finish as high as third place in the WCHA, as UND holds the tiebreaker over 3rd place St. Cloud State and 4th place Minnesota-Duluth. Coming into this weekend, the Fighting Sioux trail UMD by two points and SCSU by four points in the standings. Duluth is at Anchorage this weekend, while St. Cloud State travels to Mankato for a pair with the Mavericks.

Michigan Tech Team Profile

Head Coach: (Jamie Russell, 7th season at MTU, 66-163-33, .315)
National Ranking: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: NR
This Season: 5-26-1, 4-22-0 WCHA (10th)
Last Season: 6-25-7 overall, 2-19-7 WCHA (10th)
Team Offense: 2.12 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 4.19 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.6% (22 of 141)
Penalty Kill: 69.1% (121 of 175)
Key Players: Sophomore F Brett Olson (18-12-30), Senior F Malcolm Gwilliam (12-14-26), Junior F Jordan Baker (8-9-17), Freshman D Steven Seigo (4-15-19), Freshman G Kevin Genoe (4-17-1, 3.48 GAA, .904 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 148-82-24, .630)
National Ranking: #7/#7
PairWise Ranking: t-6th
This Season: 18-11-5, 31-10-3 WCHA (5th)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.15 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.18 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.3% (39 of 183)
Penalty Kill: 87.4% (152 of 174)
Key Players: Sophomore F Jason Gregoire (15-12-27), Senior F Chris VandeVelde (13-18-31), Freshman F Danny Kristo (12-15-27), Junior F Evan Trupp (5-22-27), Junior D Derrick LaPoint (2-12-14), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (17-8-4, 2.21 GAA, .910 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 7, 2009 (Houghton, MI). UND defeated the Huskies 4-1 behind two goals from junior Evan Trupp. Trupp also had a goal in Friday’s 4-2 Sioux victory.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: March 14, 2009. North Dakota held on for a 4-3 victory and a sweep of the WCHA first-round playoff series. It would turn out to be UND’s last victory of the 2008-09 season, as the Fighting Sioux lost both games at the WCHA Final Five (to Minnesota-Duluth and Wisconsin) and dropped their NCAA tournament opener to New Hampshire in overtime.

Most Important Meeting: The Sioux and Huskies have never met in the NCAA tournament, so I will go with the most important meeting that never was: in 1965, the Sioux lost to Boston College, 4-3, one game short of the national championship game, where they would have faced the Michigan Tech Huskies, who won the second of their three titles by defeating the Eagles. UND settled for third place that season, downing Brown University, 9-5. North Dakota went 13-3-0 in the regular season in 1964-65, with two of those three losses coming at the hands of Michigan Tech.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 138-90-9 (.599), including a 77-33-4 (.693) record in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: UND has posted a 7-2-1 (.750) record in the last ten games between the teams.

Game News and Notes

For the third consecutive week, two Fighting Sioux were honored as WCHA Players of the Week. This time around, freshman forward Corban Knight was chosen as the league’s top rookie (his third such honor this season) and sophomore goaltender Brad Eidsness earned Defensive Player honors for the second consecutive week. UND’s power play converts at 26.3 percent when Brett Hextall is in the lineup and just 6.5 percent when he does not play. Michigan Tech freshman goaltender Kevin Genoe made 58 saves last Friday night against Wisconsin. Despite the effort, MTU lost 5-2. North Dakota junior forward Matt Frattin has picked up eight points (5 goals, 3 assists) in his last five games, and has scored five goals and five assists in eleven career games against Michigan Tech. UND will honor its three seniors on the ice prior to Saturday’s game. Chay Genoway, Darcy Zajac, and Chris Vandevelde make up this year’s senior class. Our two children, Alex and Ashley, will ride the Zamboni during the first intermission on Friday night.

The Prediction

All signs point to a North Dakota sweep. Michigan Tech will need to play five on five to to keep it close and have a chance in the third period. If it’s a battle of special teams, the score could get ugly early. North Dakota 5-2, 4-2.

It’s that time of year, the season is winding down, and the number of remaining possible outcomes is declining dramatically, such that the PWR is becoming much more predictable. PWR aficionados know that in coming weeks the “You are the Committee” calculators (which allow you to punch in game outcomes and give you back the resultant PWR) will be coming online, so keep an eye out for those.

Last year I assumed this column would quite serving a purpose at that point, but quickly realized that the simulator is actually pretty good at finding the most extreme cases (e.g. UND could still finish #3 with this set of highly improbably outcomes), so this probably isn’t the end of these posts quite yet…

On to business…

Review last week

UND is #6 in PWR having one two. Referring to last week’s forecast, another solid hit.

The main event

This forecast has, by far, the tallest spikes of the season. PWR isn’t moving much this weekend.

How can UND end the weekend at #4

A bonus section… I analyzed those outcomes in which UND ends the weekend as #4, and hence would be slotted as a #1 seed. The following game outcomes were present in every such scenario. For the economists out there, these are necessary but not sufficient conditions (i.e. these outcomes alone won’t guarantee a #4 ranking, but the absence of these outcomes pretty much guarantees UND won’t have a #4 ranking):

UND must sweep Tech
Mankato needs at least 1 point vs SCSU
UNH needs at least 1 point vs BC

Other games to watch

These outcomes seem to help the Sioux in the widest variety of scenarios (that is, not just those in which UND sweeps and is fighting for a #4 ranking):

Mankato sweeping SCSU
Denver sweeping CC
Maine sweeping Mass
Alabama-Huntsville sweeping Bemidji St
UNH sweeping BC

I won’t try to figure out why each of those games matters here, but such discussions often crop up in the PWR Rankings forum thread