WCHA Preseason Predictions

Here’s how I see the race for home ice shaking out…

1. North Dakota: Locked and loaded for a title run.
2. St. Cloud State: The only question mark is on the blue line. After Lauridsen, there’s not much experience on the back end.
3. Minnesota-Duluth: The Bulldogs have the depth and experience to make a run at the MacNaughton Cup and more.
4. Denver: The Pios lost Rhakshani and Ruegsegger to graduation and three more (Cheverie, Colborne, and Wiercioch) left early for the NHL. I still have a feeling Denver will be a force in the second half.
5. Wisconsin: Wisconsin was decimated by graduation and early departures, so 5th might be high. Call it a hunch that Eaves will secure home ice with his young team.
6. Minnesota: There’s talent on the ice, but we’ve seen more talented Gopher teams finish in the bottom half.
7. Colorado College: Yet another young team with potential; Scott Owens often gets his teams to overachieve.
8. Bemidji State: The Beavers will score, but will it be enough?
9. Nebraska-Omaha: It’s tough to pick a Dean Blais team to finish this low, but I think they’re a year away from really contending.
10. MSU-Mankato: Young up front, but experienced on the back end. If the Mavs can keep games close early, Jutting could have his squad in the mix for home ice.
11. Alaska-Anchorage: Ten freshmen and 40 minutes of returning experience in net means the Seawolves will be lucky to win five WCHA games.
12. Michigan Tech: Goaltender Kevin Genoe will keep them in games, but that’s about it.

Thanks for reading. Feel free to comment and leave your predicted order of finish below.

Weekend Preview: North Dakota at Bemidji State

It’s a debut in more ways than one this weekend as North Dakota travels to Bemidji to take on the Beavers in the conference opener for both squads. Friday’s tilt will also open the lid on the brand new Bemidji Regional Event Center, the new home for BSU hockey. And this season marks Bemidji State’s first as a member of the WCHA.

For the homestanding Beavers, the top line of seniors Matt Read and Ian Lowe and sophomore phenom Jordan George will need to spark the offense. The three combined for 53 goals last season, 40 percent of the team’s lamplighters.

North Dakota brings high hopes into this season. Although the team said farewell to a couple of outstanding centermen in Chris Vandevelde and Darcy Zajac, the rest of the team returns, and four freshmen join the fold. Two of the incoming freshmen (forward Brock Nelson and defenseman Derek Forbort) were first-round picks in the 2010 NHL draft.

Although UND has had the better of the all-time series, eight of the last eleven games have gone to North Dakota by a single goal.

Bemidji State Team Profile

Head Coach: Tom Serratore (10th season at BSU, 163-128-33 .554)
National Ranking: NR/NR
This Season: 0-0-0, 0-0-0 WCHA
Last Season: 23-10-4 (NCAA Midwest Regional semifinalist), 14-3-1 CHA (1st)
Key Player (last season’s statistics): Senior F Matt Read (19-22-41), Senior F Ian Lowe (21-10-31), Sophomore F Jordan George (13-21-34), Junior D Brad Hunt (7-26-33), Senior D Ryan Adams (1-6-7), Junior G Ryan Bakala (19-8-3, 2.33 GAA, .917 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (7th season at UND, 156-84-25, .636)
National Ranking: #2/#2
This Season: 1-0-1, 0-0-0 WCHA
Last Season: 25-13-5 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 15-10-3 WCHA (t-4th)
Key Players (last season’s statistics): Junior F Jason Gregoire (20-17-37), Sophomore F Danny Kristo (15-21-36), Senior F Evan Trupp (8-26-34), Senior F Matt Frattin (11-8-19 in 24 games played)), Senior D Chay Genoway (4-6-10 in 9 games played), Senior D Derrick LaPoint (2-20-22), Junior G Brad Eidsness (24-10-4, 2.11 GAA, .914 SV%, 3 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 3, 2009 (Grand Forks, ND). The Fighting Sioux scored a power play goal thirty seconds into overtime to upend the visiting Beavers 4-3. BSU had tallied its own man-advantage marker midway through the third period to tie the score. North Dakota doubled BSU in the shot department, 40-20.

Last Meeting in Bemidji: January 2, 2009. One night earlier, the teams erupted for five goals in the opening frame, with BSU nursing a 3-2 lead. UND took the lead in the middle period with two goals, and although Bemidji outshot North Dakota 10-1 in the last twenty minutes, they could not find the equalizer and the Fighting Sioux prevailed 4-3.

Most Important Meeting: Friday night’s opener is the most important meeting between the two teams. Bemidji State wants to open its arena and first WCHA season with a victory.

Last Ten: Over the past ten games between the schools, UND has won nine and tied once.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 17-1-1 (.921), including a 4-1-0 (.800) record in games played in Bemidji. BSU’s lone victory over North Dakota came on February 7, 1990.

Game News and Notes:

Trupp leads North Dakota with three points (1 goal, 2 assists) in four career games against BSU. The Beavers have gone 8-19 against WCHA teams over the past three seasons. The Fighting Sioux return five players who notched ten or more goals last season: Jason Gregoire, Danny Kristo, Brett Hextall, Matt Frattin, and Brad Malone. Bemidji State is 41-12-2 in home openers dating back to 1947.

The Prediction

There will be more than a capacity crowd at the BREC this weekend, and the place will be rocking. The first five minutes of each game will be fast and furious. If North Dakota can weather the early storm, they could take three points or more, but I’m going with a split. BSU 3-2, UND 4-2.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

2010 NCAA Hockey Rule Changes

Watching tonight’s game (or any others this season)?  Things may be a little different.  Hat tip to CHN for link, here are the:

2010 Rule Changes (pdf)

Big stuff:

  • If the non-offending team scores during the delayed penalty, the penalty would still be enforced and that team would receive a power play.
  • When a delay of game penalty is NOT called, the team that shoots the puck directly out of play would not be allowed to change its players. (This would provide some penalty for a defending team that shoots the puck out of play directly. If the puck is ruled to be deliberately shot out of play, a delay of game penalty still may be issued.)
  • Require that a hand pass must be “deliberately directed to a teammate or create a gained advantage” for this rule to be in effect. (Too many hand passes are being called that are not truly hand passes. For example, a defenseman is trying to hold the line at the offensive blue line and the puck deflects off of the player’s glove and goes to a teammate in the neutral zone. This was not deliberately directed and therefore should not be a violation of the hand pass rule. This change will assist officials to properly administer this rule.)
  • New rule that mirrors system used in some junior leagues where the linesmen judge which player would touch the puck first if an icing is in effect. (To add an element of touch-up icing used in professional levels and eliminate some whistles in the game without compromising safety.)
  • In exhibition games ONLY, enforce icing at all times of the game. (This change would remove a contradiction in the rules that allows a team that has violated the rules in one area to violate another rule in order to compensate for being shorthanded. This would provide more scoring opportunities for the power play team and could encourage more skilled play from the defensive team.)

And… enhanced guidance about contact to head…

Alter the language to read: “A player shall not target and make contact with an opposing player’s head or neck area in any manner (including but not limited to the shoulder, stick, elbow, etc.) or force the head of an opposing player into the protective glass, boards or goal cage.
PENALTY—Major and a game misconduct or disqualification at the discretion of the referee.”
NOTE: See the additional guidance at the end of this document.

Toews-mania hits Winnipeg

Toews-mania hits ‘Peg — Winnipeg Sun

Winnipeg may not have won the Stanley Cup, but it sure seemed like it on Sunday.

Thousands of fans lined the streets of St. Vital as a parade featuring hometown hero Jonathan Toews and hockey’s holy grail wound its way to the Dakota Community Club.

Make that the Jonathan Toews Community Centre, as the facility where Toews cut his hockey teeth as a youngster has been officially renamed, much to the surprise of the star of the show.

Toews Captain Humble — Winnipeg Sun

“It’s easy to take the credit when you’re on a winning team. You’ve really got to realize it was more just taking advantage of an opportunity than anything else. You work hard to get those opportunities. That’s all I attribute it to: I worked hard and got lucky. Things went my way.”

Slideshow of Toews’ visit to Winnipeg — Winnipeg Sun

All eyes on Toews as he brings Lord Stanley home – NHL.com

He always wondered what bringing the Stanley Cup home to Winnipeg would be like, but never in those daydreams did Jonathan Toews picture an estimated 15,000 people would greet him as a hero and the city would rename his own community center in his honor.

Hometown honours a winner – Winnipeg Free Press

“We were trying to think of something unique and enduring” to honour Toews, Selinger said. “It’s rare,” he said of the naming. “We do it for people who make an outstanding contribution in their field.”

“I never imagined something like this would happen — a lake named after me in my home province,” said Toews, an avid fisher. He joked that he’ll build a road so people can visit his lake.

Winnipeg gives Toews warm welcome home – Chicago Tribune

Ace Burpee, the local radio personality who emceed the ceremonies, added he thought Toews outdrew the Queen, referring to Queen Elizabeth II’s July 3 visit to Winnipeg.

“Of course, she didn’t bring a Stanley Cup with her,” Burpee said.

Toews friendship inspires greatness – TSN.ca

But nowhere is Toews bigger than in a home two doors down from where he grew up, and where his parents still live.

That’s the home of Cam MacDonald, owner of six Toews jerseys, going as far back as the University of North Dakota, where Toews starred for the Fighting Sioux.

“He’s been my hero for a long time,” MacDonald was saying Sunday.

MacDonald, 18, was born with cerebral palsy, an affliction that’s had him down, but not out.

N.D. Board of Higher Education to retire “Fighting Sioux” nickname

I’m sure you’ve seen the news elsewhere, but given all the coverage this topic has received here over the years, this needs mention…

Court, board decide to retire nickname

The court ruled Thursday that the board had the authority to dump the nickname at any time. The court rejected an appeal that sought to delay action.

A motion later Thursday at the board’s regularly scheduled meeting in Mayville to reconsider its vote in May to retire the nickname died after nobody seconded it.

The Grand Forks Herald report:

The university athletic teams will continue to be called the Sioux through the 2010-2011 school year while the school considers alternatives.

REA to cut beer sizes and raise prices for 2010-11 season

A Ralph Engelstad Arena official, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that another beverage size and price adjustment was in the works for next season. The two tap beer sizes will change to 12 ounces and 8 ounces, with a price tag of 12 dollars and 8 dollars, respectively. “We’re not giving anyone a discount for drinking more beer,” he said. “It’ll be a buck an ounce, plain and simple.”

NCAA Northeast Regional Preview: North Dakota vs. Yale

Last season, the high-flying Yale Bulldogs cruised to the ECAC regular season and playoff championships and were averaging 4.67 goals per game heading into the NCAA tournament. Their first round opponent was Vermont, and the Catamounts stifled and stymied the host Bulldogs, 4-1.

If KRACH is an indication of the strength of teams in each conference, then (aside from #13 Cornell), Yale played a season against squads comparable to Alaska-Anchorage (#32 KRACH) and Michigan Tech (#48). In a full season against the likes of #28 Union , #33 St. Lawrence, #34 Quinnipiac, #35 Rensselaer, #36 Colgate, #40 Princeton, #44 Brown, #46 Dartmouth, #47 Harvard, and #50 Clarkson, the Bulldogs put up impressive offensive numbers: 4.09 goals/game and a power play that converted at a 23.5% clip. But against those same opponents, Yale also allowed almost three goals per game.

Or put more simply, here is the comparison between North Dakota and Yale:

Yale (Strength of Schedule #37): 4.09 goals scored/game, 2.94 goals allowed/game
UND (Strength of Schedule #2): 3.29 goals scored/game, 2.10 goals allowed/game

The question is this: which team will be able to play its style and take away time and space from their opponent?

In the first three months after Chay Genoway’s injury, the Fighting Sioux struggled to a 6-10-4 mark. Since that time, North Dakota has been on a mission, winning 12 of its last 13 games and outscoring opponents 55-22 during that stretch. UND has seen improvement in all areas, but most notably goaltending and team defense.

The Green and White are deep, talented, and rugged up front, and penalty trouble seems to be the only thing that can derail North Dakota’s momentum.

Yale suffered its own blow on the injury front, losing senior forward Sean Backman (21 goals and 14 assists in 29 games) for the season to a non-hockey related foot injury. Backman was voted to the all-ECAC first team and was named Ivy League Player of the Year.

Yale Team Profile

Head Coach: Keith Allain (4th season at Yale, 71-48-12, .588)
NCAA Tournament Appearances: 4, most recently 2009
National Titles: None
This Season:  20-9-3, 15-5-2 ECAC (1st)
National Rankings: #8/#8
PairWise Ranking: 9th
Team Offense: 4.09 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.94 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.5% (44 of 187)
Penalty Kill: 81.8% (126 of 154)
Last Season: 24-8-2 overall (NCAA East Regional semifinalist), 15-5-2 ECAC (1st)
Key Players: Junior F Broc Little (26-14-40), Sophomore F Brian O’Neill (14-25-39), Junior F Denny Kearney (9-25-34), Senior D Thomas Dignard (6-20-26), Junior D Jimmy Martin (2-15-17), Senior G Billy Blasé (7-2-0, 2.37 GAA, .901 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 155-83-24, .637)
NCAA tournament appearances: 25, most recently 2009
National Titles: 7, most recently 2000
National Ranking: #4/#4
PairWise Ranking: 5th
This Season: 22-12-5, 15-10-3 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.29 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.10 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.2% (42 of 208)
Penalty Kill: 86.3% (170 of 197)
Key Players: Senior F Chris VandeVelde (16-25-41), Sophomore F Jason Gregoire (20-17-37), Freshman F Danny Kristo (15-21-36), Junior F Evan Trupp (8-26-34), Junior D Derrick LaPoint (2-20-22), Junior D Jake Marto (5-13-18), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (24-9-4, 2.09 GAA, .915 SV%, 3 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 1, 2003 (Grand Forks, ND). The Fighting Sioux crushed the visiting Bulldogs 10-0 to complete the two game sweep. Brady Murray scored the game winner 13 seconds into the first period, and Zach Parise led the way with a hat trick and an assist. UND won Friday’s opener, 8-4, behind two goals each from Brandon Bochenski and Quinn Fylling. Eight future NHL players were in uniform for North Dakota in that series.

Most Important Meeting: January 1, 1960 (Troy, NY). In the only tournament game these two teams have ever played, North Dakota trounced Yale 15-0 in the RPI holiday tourney,

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 5-0-0.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota senior forward Chris VandeVelde (117 career points) needs two points to crack the top 50 on UND’s all-time scoring list. Yale has the nation’s second best power play (23.5%). The Fighting Sioux have scored five shorthanded goals over the past thirteen games. UND is 3-0 all-time in NCAA tournament games played in Worcester, MA. Yale head coach Keith Allain was born and raised in Worcester.

The Prediction

Yale hasn’t seen a team like North Dakota all season, and the Fighting Sioux are on a roll. If it’s a parade to the penalty box, things could get interesting, but UND is too deep and too focused for the Bulldogs. North Dakota 4, Yale 2.

Bonus Predictions

In the other regional semifinal, Alaska is a better team than most fans give them credit for, but a date with Boston College seems like destiny (and could be payback) for North Dakota. Boston College 3, Alaska 2.

In the other regionals, I have:

Wisconsin over St. Cloud State in the West Regional final
Denver over New Hampshire in the East Regional final
Miami over Michigan in the Midwest Regional final

Thank you for reading. Check back on Sunday for a preview of the Northeast Regional final.

Sioux fan tournament prediction bias

One of my favorite parts about SiouxSports.com NCAA Hockey Bracket Challenge (did anyone else notice how EVERYONE is trying to do their own this year? Imitation and flattery and all that…) is seeing what Sioux fans pick. It’s an interesting barometer of their optimism and outlook on various teams and conferences.

The aggregate picks are available, and I’ve also compared them to the previously posted KRACH predictions.

Some takeaways:

  • 99.4% of Sioux fans pick UND to beat Yale, a figure 26% higher than KRACH. Lest one conclude that all Sioux fans are always homers, only 65% picked UND to beat UNH last year, despite KRACH calling it a draw.
  • The biggest difference between Sioux fans’ picks and KRACH isn’t the UND game, it’s BC over Alaska. 92.5% of Sioux fans pick BC, while KRACH predicts the game 62%-38% in favor of BC. This is the largest spread between Sioux fans picks and KRACH probabilities in the last three years.
  • Other than their love (fear?) of BC, Sioux fans have no respect for Hockey East. 73% picked Cornell to beat UNH, despite Cornell being 47%-53% underdogs in KRACH; 98% picked Wisconsin to beat Vermont, despite Wisconsin only being 70%-30% favorites in KRACH.

KRACH predicts the NCAA tournament

This may help you in your Bracket Challenge entry…

Here’s how KRACH predicts the NCAA tournament:

KRACH predicts NCAA 2010 Hockey Tournament

A few observations:

  • The Northeast is, as speculated, the bracket of death
  • UND is the only #2 seed picked as most likely to emerge from its bracket
  • RIT over Denver (9%) edges out Alabama Huntsville over Miami (10%) as least likely upset.

Of course, there’s a reason they still play the games. The least likely upset last year? Bemidji St over Notre Dame at 10%. Bemidji St won 5-1, then went on to beat Cornell to visit the Frozen Four.