Sioux Sports Talk

As most of you have already figured out, yesterday’s blog post “Audio from ‘The Timeout’ available for the first time” was an April Fool’s joke.

As I sat and watched the comments roll in, I was reminded of my favorite April Fools’ columns and thought I would share them with you again today.

2008: “T.J. Oshie signs with the St. Louis Blues and gives up a chance to compete with North Dakota at the Frozen Four” (link no longer available)

2009: “Rule Change: Ties in the Frozen Four to be decided by shootout”

2010: “REA to cut beer sizes and raise prices for 2010-11 season”

2011: “NCAA to drop nickname settlement and sanctions altogether if UND wins hockey championship”

2012: “Audio from ‘The Timeout’ available for the first time”

Which are your favorites? More to the point: Which, at the time, did you fall for?

SiouxSports.com has received a transcript of UND coach Dave Hakstol’s stirring timeout speech during the WCHA Final Five semifinal clash with rival Minnesota. The audio feed was picked up by a microphone placed near the UND bench, recorded by FSN, and made available to the media for the first time today.

Dave Hakstol called his timeout with 5:53 remaining in the second period. At the time, North Dakota trailed 23-4 on the shot chart and 3-0 on the scoreboard. After rallying his troops, the Fighting Sioux outshot the Gophers 24-2 and scored six unanswered goals, leaving the Maroon and Gold with few answers.

In the post-game press conference, the UND coach stated that there was nothing special said at all. What follows is a verbatim transcript of the timeout speech. It is left to the reader to determine if Hakstol’s words were special.

“Alright, boys. We’ve got 5:53 left before the break and we need one. We need one goal, we’ve got all our fans here and they’re waiting for a reason to get behind us. Some of you were in this building last April when we couldn’t get that first one, and if we had, the whole thing would have gone our way. So let’s change some of that tonight. Look around you, there’s a lot of green out there, and those fans want to wear green again tomorrow. And remember, this may be the last time you ever put on the Sioux jersey. So think about how you want it to feel when you take it off ninety minutes from now. Courage, pride, honor, overcoming adversity, and winning battles. That’s what it means every time you put that logo on. You’ve got it in you, and it’s yours for the taking. Heck, if we get the first one, we might get seven tonight. Let’s go.”

Ralph Engelstad Arena plans to use the audio from the timeout at UND men’s hockey games next season in much the same way that the “Kid Herb Brooks” speech has been used in the past.

I sent an email to FSN inquiring why it took so long for the audio transcript to be released, and received a reply which said, in part: “We chose not to release the audio until after the two teams met on the ice during the NCAA tournament. We knew that North Dakota’s rabid fan base would seize on this information and create an unfair advantage for UND over the host school Minnesota.”

It’s interesting to hear fans of both schools claiming the “underdog” label in advance of today’s West Regional Final at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul.

From the Minnesota side: UND is the higher seed, they’re hot right now, and they just throttled the Gophers nine days ago, scoring six unanswered goals on their way to a third consecutive WCHA Final Five championship.

From the North Dakota side: Minnesota is playing at home, they won the MacNaughton Cup as WCHA regular season champions, and they’re hopping mad after allowing six unanswered goals in the WCHA Final Five semifinals.

I think that both sides are attempting to limit expectations and soften the blow in case their favorite team comes out on the losing end of this latest chapter in a long and storied rivalry.

As I sat at Xcel Energy Center last weekend and watched both halves of the same hockey game, I remarked that these two schools have got to find a way to continue playing each other. It’s important for both sides to put aside pride and personal politics and reach a schedule agreement, one that has each school traveling to the other in alternate years. It’s good for the fans, it’s good for each program, and it’s good for the sport.

After not meeting in the national tournament for 25 years (1980-2004), Sunday’s regional final will mark the third NCAA playoff game between North Dakota and Minnesota over the past eight seasons. UND defeated Minnesota 4-2 in the 2005 Frozen Four semifinals and claimed a 3-2 overtime victory over the Golden Gophers to advance to the 2007 Frozen Four.

More recently, the Fighting Sioux dispatched Minnesota in the first round of the 2010 WCHA playoffs by a combined score of 12-5.

Minnesota can claim a 2007 WCHA Final Five championship victory over North Dakota. Gopher fans will remember Blake Wheeler’s overtime winner, while fans of the Green and White prefer to remember Chris Porter’s sudden death tally eight days later, ending Minnesota’s season and propelling UND to the Frozen Four.

All told, North Dakota is 6-2 in the last eight playoff meetings (WCHA and NCAA) between the teams.

One overlooked factor heading into the West Regional final is that North Dakota will have the last line change as the higher seed. With all of the TV timeouts, Minnesota’s depth will not be as much of a factor as it was during the regular season.

Minnesota Team Profile

Head Coach: Don Lucia (13th season at Minnesota, 317-172-54, .634)
Pairwise Ranking: t-6th
National Rankings: #6/#6
This Season: 27-13-1 overall, 20-8-0 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 16-14-6 overall (missed NCAA tournament), 13-10-5 WCHA (5th)

Team Offense: 3.63 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.22 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.2% (42 of 181)
Penalty Kill: 80.7% (146 of 181)

Key Players: Sophomore F Erik Haula (19-28-47), Freshman F Kyle Rau (18-24-42), Sophomore F Nick Bjugstad (25-16-41), Sophomore D Nate Schmidt (3-37-40), Sophomore D Mark Alt (5-17-22), Senior G Kent Patterson (27-13-1, 2.24 GAA, .910 SV%, 7 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 213-105-30, .655)
Pairwise Ranking: 3rd
National Rankings: #4/#4
This Season: 26-12-3 overall, 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.24 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.51 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.3% (40 of 179)
Penalty Kill: 81.2% (134 of 165)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (18-26-44) Junior F Corban Knight (16-24-40), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (28-18-46), Freshman D Nick Mattson (6-13-19), Senior D Ben Blood (3-18-21), Junior G Aaron Dell (18-9-2, 2.58 GAA, .903 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: March 16, 2012 (St. Paul, MN). Minnesota took three of four games from North Dakota in the regular season and appeared poised to advance to the WCHA Final Five title game, leading UND 3-0 midway through the middle period. But the Fighting Sioux rattled off six unanswered goals, left the Gophers shell-shocked, and ensured that Xcel Energy Center would be green for St. Patrick’s Day the following night.

Last meeting in the NCAA tournament: March 25, 2007 (Denver, CO). Minnesota had defeated UND eight days earlier to win the WCHA Final Five on Blake Wheeler’s diving overtime winner, but North Dakota got the last laugh. Chris Porter scored on a wraparound (Michael Parks, anyone?) midway through the first overtime and the Fighting Sioux were on their way to the Frozen Four. Ryan Duncan and Robbie Bina also scored for the Green and White and Phillippe Lamoureux stopped 27 of 29 Gopher shots.

Most important meeting: March 24, 1979 (Detroit, MI). North Dakota and Minnesota met to decide the national championship, and the Gophers prevailed, 4-3.

All-time: Minnesota leads the all-time series by a slim margin, 136-130-14 (.511), but North Dakota has won six of the past eight playoff meetings (WCHA and NCAA) between the two teams.

Recent history: Each team has won five of the last ten games between the schools, and the teams have split four games at Xcel Energy Center.

Game News and Notes

Dave Hakstol is 17-12-3 against Minnesota in his head coaching career. UND junior goaltender Aaron Dell is 13-0 in the month of March. In an effort to alleviate parking concerns, Minnesota fans are asked to park in St. Cloud and walk to Xcel Energy Center.

The Prediction

Just like last Friday night, tonight’s contest will be decided by special teams, goaltending, and momentum. If North Dakota has any edge at all, it’s in the faceoff circle. No matter which way this game goes down, it will add yet another chapter to one of the greatest rivalries in all of college sports. I see this one as a tight game either way, with an empty netter sealing it at the end. If UND head coach Dave Hakstol had more than one timeout at his disposal. I would go with North Dakota. As it is, however, I think Minnesota takes this one and gets their crack at Boston College in the Frozen Four. MN 5, UND 3.

The first game of the 2012 NCAA West Regionals features a team that has made a strong second-half run, winning its conference playoffs with the tournament MVP in goal.

And the other team is North Dakota.

UND fans may not know much about the Western Michigan Broncos, as the teams haven’t played in 14 years and have faced off only four times in college hockey history. But the Broncos, led by first-year head coach Andy Murray (Los Angeles Kings, St. Louis Blues) has his team on a run similar to the Fighting Sioux.

Since the calendar turned to 2012, WMU has gone 11-8-1, but more impressively, they’re unbeaten in their last six games and boast playoff wins over Miami and Michigan en route to the CCHA playoff championship.

For UND, it’s just another second half surge. Dave Hakstol’s club is 15-4-1 in 2012 and has won seven games in a row, including wins over Minnesota and Denver at the WCHA Final Five. Of North Dakota’s four second half losses, only one came at the hands of a team that did not make the NCAA tournament (St. Cloud State).

The difference in this one could come down to experience between the pipes. Western Michigan’s Frank Slubowski is good, but he’s a freshman and hadn’t been playoff tested until last weekend.

North Dakota’s Aaron Dell, a junior, has never lost a game in March, boasting a record of 12-0-0 with a goals-against average of 1.21 and a save percentage of .950.

Western Michigan Team Profile

Head Coach: (Andy Murray, 1st season at WMU, 21-13-6 .600)
Pairwise Ranking: 14th
National Rankings: #12/#12
This Season: 21-13-6 overall, 14-10-4-4 CCHA (t-2nd)
Last Season: 19-13-10 overall (NCAA Midwest Regional semifinalist), 10-9-9-5 CCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 2.83 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.23 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.8% (36 of 173)
Penalty Kill: 84.9% (135 of 159)

Key Players: Sophomore F Chase Balisy (13-24-37), Sophomore F Shane Berschbach (10-22-32), Junior F Dane Walters (16-13-29), Junior D Matt Tennyson (11-13-24), Sophomore D Danny DeKeyser (5-11-16), Freshman G Frank Slubowski (17-10-4, 2.03 GAA, .910 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 212-105-30, .654)
Pairwise Ranking: 4th
National Rankings: #4/#4
This Season: 25-12-3 overall, 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.25 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.55 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.6% (40 of 177)
Penalty Kill: 80.9% (131 of 162)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (18-25-43) Junior F Corban Knight (15-24-39), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (27-17-44), Freshman D Nick Mattson (6-13-19), Senior D Ben Blood (3-17-20), Junior G Aaron Dell (17-9-2, 2.64 GAA, .901 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 3, 1998 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota steamrolled the visiting Broncos 5-1 after taking Friday’s opener by the score of 12-5. UND had traveled to Kalamazoo, Michigan the previous season and swept WMU by scores of 6-3 and 5-3.

Most Important Meeting: The two teams have never met in the playoffs, so I will go with Saturday’s regional semifinal as the most important meeting between the two teams.

All-time Series: UND has won all four meetings between the schools. The teams last met during the 1997-98 season.

Game News and Notes

UND head coach Dave Hakstol has a 10-2 record in NCAA regionals and has 41 total playoff wins in his career at North Dakota. WMU head coach Andy Murray is in his first season behind the Bronco bench; Murray’s son, Brady, played for the Fighting Sioux from 2003-05. Both team’s goaltenders (Frank Slubowski, WMU, and Aaron Dell, UND) were named the MVP of their respective conference tournaments last weekend.

The Prediction

This game will be tighter than many fans are suggesting. If the Broncos come out of the gates flying, expect Minnesota fans in attendance to adopt WMU as their own. North Dakota will survive this one, but it won’t be easy. UND 3, WMU 2.

Bonus Prediction:

In the late game on Saturday, Minnesota and Boston University will lock horns for the right to advance to the West Regional final. The Golden Gophers will falter early but find their legs late. I see this one going to overtime, with the Maroon and Gold edging the Terriers. MN 4, BU 3 (OT).

Everyone’s favorite college hockey ranking system, KRACH, has the nice feature that it can be used to assign probabilities to potential matchups.

Here’s what KRACH’s forecast for the odds for each team emerging as the winner of each round the NCAA Ice Hockey tournament:

KRACH		Game 1	Game 2 (Region Champ)	Game 3 (Frozen four semifinal)	Game 4 (National Champ)
	West
100	1. North Dakota	52.74%	28.36%	13.03%	6.89%
89.6042	4. Western Michigan	47.26%	24.12%	10.45%	5.24%
84.9926	2. Minnesota	49.43%	23.35%	9.82%	4.79%
86.9526	3. Boston U.	50.57%	24.17%	10.30%	5.09%
	Northeast
154.831	1. Boston College	87.67%	55.51%	35.01%	22.18%
21.7819	4. Air Force	12.33%	2.41%	0.47%	0.09%
91.1404	2. Minn. Duluth	50.81%	21.56%	10.81%	5.47%
88.2171	3. Maine	49.19%	20.52%	10.12%	5.03%
	East
71.9621	1. Union	47.27%	21.03%	9.29%	3.72%
80.2812	4. Michigan St	52.73%	24.89%	11.65%	4.97%
97.2908	2. Miami (OH)	54.35%	30.47%	15.71%	7.43%
81.7069	3. Mass.-Lowell	45.65%	23.61%	11.16%	4.81%
	Midwest
114.097	1. Michigan	70.06%	39.72%	22.92%	11.74%
48.7625	4. Cornell	29.94%	10.74%	3.96%	1.24%
91.2115	2. Ferris St.	52.39%	26.53%	13.84%	6.33%
82.9009	3. Denver	47.61%	23.01%	11.46%	4.98%

A few observations:
* UND’s predicted 53% chance of winning the opening round game is lower than any 1 seed in the previous 4 years I’ve been doing this
* Union is even worse off, not even favored to win its 1 vs 4 matchup
* Similarly, 2 seed Minnesota is an underdog to Boston University
* The largest line in any 2 vs 3 matchup is 54%-46%, Miami over Mass.-Lowell

Again, I can’t stress enough how experimental the “tournament invites” line is.

Here are the PWR possibilities that seem to remain (as always, assuming RPI is the tie-breaker)…

Team	PWR Possibilities
	Overall	If team wins none	If team wins all
Boston College	1 100.0% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	1 100.0%	1 100.0%
Michigan	2 100.0% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	2 100.0%	2 100.0%
Miami	3 2.4% 4 11.8% 5 11.5% 6 4.9% 7 2.1% 8 17.7% 9 20.8% 10 10.4% 11 11.5% 12 6.9% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	8 25.5% 9 31.3% 10 15.6% 11 17.2% 12 10.4%	3 7.3% 4 35.4% 5 34.4% 6 14.6% 7 6.3% 8 2.1%
UMD	6 11.5% 7 42.0% 8 36.5% 9 10.1% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	n/a	n/a
Ferris State	4 31.3% 5 38.9% 6 17.7% 7 9.4% 8 2.8% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	n/a	n/a
Boston University	7 2.4% 8 9.7% 9 24.0% 10 33.7% 11 18.4% 12 11.8% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	n/a	n/a
UMN	6 8.0% 7 15.3% 8 26.4% 9 28.1% 10 18.4% 11 3.8% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	n/a	n/a
Maine	3 10.1% 4 8.3% 5 19.1% 6 10.8% 7 1.7% 8 0.0% 9 7.6% 10 17.4% 11 22.2% 12 2.8% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	9 15.3% 10 34.7% 11 44.4% 12 5.6%	3 20.1% 4 16.7% 5 38.2% 6 21.5% 7 3.5%
UND	3 25.0% 4 25.7% 5 6.9% 6 18.1% 7 19.4% 8 4.9% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	4 1.4% 5 13.9% 6 36.1% 7 38.9% 8 9.7%	3 50.0% 4 50.0%
Mass.-Lowell	8 0.7% 9 4.5% 10 8.0% 11 11.5% 12 75.3% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	n/a	n/a
Michigan State	13 24.3% 14 24.7% 15 37.5% 16 9.0% 17 4.5% Tournament invites: 189 (65.6%)	n/a	n/a
Western Michigan	13 34.0% 14 41.3% 15 24.7% Tournament invites: 252 (87.5%)	13 1.4% 14 49.3% 15 49.3%	13 66.7% 14 33.3%
Denver	3 12.5% 4 13.2% 5 11.8% 6 12.5% 7 0.0% 8 0.0% 9 3.5% 10 11.5% 11 31.9% 12 3.1% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	9 6.9% 10 22.9% 11 63.9% 12 6.3%	3 25.0% 4 26.4% 5 23.6% 6 25.0%
Northern Michigan	14 9.0% 15 32.6% 16 57.6% 17 0.7% Tournament invites: 73 (25.3%)	n/a	n/a
Union	3 50.0% 4 9.7% 5 11.8% 6 16.7% 7 7.6% 8 1.4% 9 1.4% 10 0.7% 11 0.7% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	4 19.4% 5 23.6% 6 33.3% 7 15.3% 8 2.8% 9 2.8% 10 1.4% 11 1.4%	3 100.0%
Merrimack	15 5.2% 16 33.3% 17 58.0% 18 3.5% Tournament invites: 14 (4.9%)	n/a	n/a
SCSU	23 12.5% 24 54.2% 25 33.3% Tournament invites: 0 (0.0%)	n/a	n/a
Cornell	13 41.7% 14 25.0% 15 0.0% 16 0.0% 17 33.3% Tournament invites: 192 (66.7%)	13 12.5% 14 37.5% 15 0.0% 16 0.0% 17 50.0%	13 100.0%
Harvard	17 3.5% 18 28.8% 19 26.0% 20 35.1% 21 6.6% Tournament invites: 144 (50.0%)	19 16.7% 20 70.1% 21 13.2%	17 6.9% 18 57.6% 19 35.4%

Here’s a quick PairWise Rankings update at the break in action.

At the request of some gentlemen on the USCHO forum I’ve tried adding a probability of making the tournament statistic. It’s based on a combination of the team’s rank and the number of non top 16 autoqualifiers in each scenario. When perfected, it should provide some really useful information, but I just whipped it up this afternoon and it has not been through much quality control so for now should definitely be treated as experimental and not quoted.

Team	PWR Possibilities
	Overall	If team wins none	If team wins all
Boston College	1 75.0% 2 25.0% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	1 75.0% 2 25.0%	1 75.0% 2 25.0%
Michigan	2 66.0% 3 29.0% 4 4.2% 5 0.8% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	2 47.9% 3 37.1% 4 12.5% 5 2.5%	2 75.0% 3 25.0%
Miami	3 0.2% 4 3.0% 5 7.9% 6 9.5% 7 12.6% 8 16.5% 9 14.1% 10 16.6% 11 15.4% 12 4.1% 13 0.2% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	7 6.2% 8 19.2% 9 20.5% 10 24.8% 11 23.0% 12 6.1% 13 0.3%	3 0.7% 4 8.9% 5 23.7% 6 28.5% 7 25.5% 8 11.1% 9 1.4% 10 0.3%
UMD	1 25.0% 2 0.0% 3 3.0% 4 7.9% 5 13.4% 6 10.2% 7 19.5% 8 16.0% 9 4.6% 10 0.3% 11 0.0% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	5 1.9% 6 17.1% 7 39.0% 8 31.9% 9 9.3% 10 0.7% 11 0.1%	1 100.0%
Ferris State	3 3.4% 4 16.0% 5 32.5% 6 30.8% 7 14.7% 8 2.5% 9 0.1% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	n/a	n/a
Boston University	2 4.0% 3 20.1% 4 12.8% 5 6.4% 6 3.8% 7 4.6% 8 10.8% 9 16.9% 10 11.7% 11 5.9% 12 2.5% 13 0.4% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	7 4.9% 8 20.3% 9 33.7% 10 23.4% 11 11.9% 12 5.1% 13 0.8%	2 16.1% 3 63.7% 4 20.2%
UMN	2 0.6% 3 12.8% 4 11.2% 5 7.4% 6 9.1% 7 13.9% 8 16.3% 9 15.0% 10 9.9% 11 3.5% 12 0.2% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	5 0.2% 6 2.6% 7 13.8% 8 27.7% 9 28.5% 10 19.8% 11 6.9% 12 0.5%	2 2.5% 3 47.9% 4 36.7% 5 9.4% 6 2.7% 7 0.9%
Maine	3 2.5% 4 6.3% 5 9.1% 6 4.8% 7 2.3% 8 1.2% 9 4.0% 10 12.6% 11 20.9% 12 24.6% 13 11.2% 14 0.5% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	10 0.0% 11 29.7% 12 47.1% 13 22.2% 14 0.9%	3 9.9% 4 25.2% 5 36.5% 6 19.3% 7 9.0%
UND	2 0.7% 3 8.6% 4 13.6% 5 2.8% 6 4.7% 7 7.7% 8 9.2% 9 13.9% 10 20.0% 11 15.6% 12 3.0% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	7 1.1% 8 6.6% 9 20.7% 10 35.5% 11 30.3% 12 5.8%	2 2.9% 3 34.5% 4 54.3% 5 8.3%
Mass.-Lowell	6 1.1% 7 4.8% 8 11.8% 9 16.4% 10 13.7% 11 22.2% 12 23.4% 13 6.4% 14 0.3% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	n/a	n/a
Michigan State	13 9.5% 14 31.3% 15 49.5% 16 4.5% 17 5.3% Tournament invites: 12560 (68.1%)	n/a	n/a
Western Michigan	9 0.0% 10 0.4% 11 3.1% 12 8.4% 13 24.9% 14 39.4% 15 23.9% Tournament invites: 15698 (85.2%)	13 6.5% 14 45.7% 15 47.8%	9 0.0% 10 0.8% 11 6.2% 12 16.7% 13 43.3% 14 33.0%
Denver	3 2.7% 4 4.7% 5 6.6% 6 8.8% 7 2.0% 8 1.3% 9 3.1% 10 7.8% 11 11.5% 12 29.5% 13 17.1% 14 5.0% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	11 1.9% 12 53.9% 13 34.1% 14 10.0%	3 10.9% 4 18.8% 5 26.3% 6 35.0% 7 7.8% 8 1.2%
Northern Michigan	14 2.2% 15 23.3% 16 74.1% 17 0.4% Tournament invites: 2808 (15.2%)	n/a	n/a
Union	2 3.7% 3 17.7% 4 20.0% 5 10.2% 6 9.3% 7 10.1% 8 10.2% 9 10.2% 10 6.6% 11 1.9% 12 0.2% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	4 2.1% 5 6.5% 6 13.8% 7 19.2% 8 20.3% 9 20.4% 10 13.3% 11 3.9% 12 0.4%	2 7.3% 3 35.4% 4 37.9% 5 13.8% 6 4.7% 7 0.9%
Merrimack	15 0.6% 16 12.4% 17 74.3% 18 12.7% Tournament invites: 106 (0.6%)	n/a	n/a
SCSU	21 0.7% 22 14.0% 23 44.2% 24 32.7% 25 8.5% Tournament invites: 0 (0.0%)	n/a	n/a
Cornell	4 0.4% 5 2.8% 6 7.9% 7 7.9% 8 4.3% 9 1.6% 10 0.3% 11 0.0% 12 4.2% 13 30.4% 14 21.3% 15 2.6% 16 8.4% 17 8.1% 18 0.0% Tournament invites: 14908 (80.9%)	13 15.3% 14 27.3% 15 7.7% 16 25.2% 17 24.4% 18 0.0%	4 1.7% 5 11.0% 6 31.4% 7 31.4% 8 17.2% 9 6.3% 10 1.0%
Harvard	15 0.2% 16 0.7% 17 11.8% 18 4.1% 19 31.4% 20 13.9% 21 3.5% 22 1.2% 23 4.1% 24 4.1% 25 9.0% 26 5.9% 27 9.9% Tournament invites: 4608 (25.0%)	22 0.8% 23 12.1% 24 12.3% 25 27.1% 26 17.8% 27 29.8%	15 0.6% 16 2.8% 17 47.4% 18 16.3% 19 32.9%

The Sioux now seem a lock for the NCAA championship and St. Cloud State’s season is done.

With Mich. Tech and St. Cloud both eliminated, it seems the WCHA can only be won by a team in the top 16, thus only 4 slots can be taken by autobids outside the top 16. So, #12 in the PairWise Rankings should be safe.

Remembering from the Deeper dive into whether UND will make the NCAA tournament that UND can do no worse than #12 after defeating St. Cloud, the Sioux now seem a lock for the NCAA tournament.

Here are the remaining possibilities for the key 19:

Team	PWR Possibilities
	Overall	Win none	Win all
Boston College	1 76.0% 2 23.5% 3 0.5%	1 76.3% 2 23.7%	1 76.9% 2 23.1%
Michigan	1 0.3% 2 65.2% 3 27.9% 4 5.0% 5 1.4% 6 0.2%	2 49.4% 3 33.3% 4 12.4% 5 4.3% 6 0.6%	2 75.0% 3 25.0%
Miami	1 0.3% 2 2.7% 3 16.6% 4 15.3% 5 13.0% 6 12.5% 7 10.4% 8 8.6% 9 7.4% 10 7.1% 11 5.0% 12 1.2% 13 0.1%	5 0.1% 6 3.3% 7 13.9% 8 21.0% 9 21.8% 10 21.2% 11 14.9% 12 3.5% 13 0.2%	1 1.2% 2 10.7% 3 56.9% 4 28.1% 5 2.9% 6 0.2%
UMD	1 23.4% 2 2.7% 3 3.0% 4 8.8% 5 13.6% 6 13.0% 7 16.6% 8 13.4% 9 4.6% 10 0.8% 11 0.1%	3 0.0% 4 1.7% 5 8.5% 6 19.7% 7 32.4% 8 26.7% 9 9.1% 10 1.6% 11 0.3%	1 93.6% 2 6.4%
Ferris State	3 5.5% 4 17.6% 5 29.0% 6 28.8% 7 14.9% 8 4.0% 9 0.3%	n/a	n/a
Boston University	2 3.1% 3 13.6% 4 10.2% 5 7.3% 6 7.7% 7 10.8% 8 15.3% 9 16.0% 10 10.4% 11 4.4% 12 1.1% 13 0.1%	5 0.0% 6 1.1% 7 10.6% 8 25.5% 9 30.8% 10 20.7% 11 8.7% 12 2.3% 13 0.3%	2 12.5% 3 49.5% 4 29.5% 5 7.3% 6 1.1% 7 0.1%
UMN	2 0.6% 3 12.2% 4 12.2% 5 8.1% 6 7.7% 7 11.9% 8 17.2% 9 17.4% 10 9.7% 11 2.7% 12 0.3% 13 0.0%	5 0.1% 6 2.5% 7 12.0% 8 27.2% 9 32.9% 10 19.3% 11 5.4% 12 0.5% 13 0.0%	2 2.2% 3 45.2% 4 37.3% 5 12.8% 6 1.9% 7 0.5% 8 0.1%
Maine	3 1.0% 4 5.3% 5 8.7% 6 7.5% 7 2.6% 8 1.2% 9 4.9% 10 13.7% 11 24.0% 12 22.9% 13 8.1% 14 0.2%	10 5.9% 11 34.7% 12 42.9% 13 16.1% 14 0.4%	3 3.8% 4 21.2% 5 34.8% 6 29.8% 7 9.9% 8 0.4% 9 0.0%
UND	2 0.5% 3 10.0% 4 10.4% 5 4.3% 6 4.1% 7 7.1% 8 11.0% 9 19.1% 10 20.1% 11 11.6% 12 1.8%	6 0.1% 7 1.8% 8 10.8% 9 27.6% 10 34.4% 11 21.7% 12 3.6%	2 1.9% 3 40.1% 4 41.7% 5 14.5% 6 1.8% 7 0.1%
Mass.-Lowell	6 0.6% 7 3.8% 8 10.6% 9 12.3% 10 17.3% 11 27.8% 12 22.0% 13 5.5% 14 0.1%	n/a	n/a
Michigan State	13 11.4% 14 40.7% 15 38.4% 16 4.2% 17 5.3%	n/a	n/a
Western Michigan	9 0.0% 10 0.2% 11 1.7% 12 3.7% 13 13.5% 14 33.7% 15 22.6% 16 16.6% 17 8.0%	13 1.2% 14 8.9% 15 16.2% 16 49.8% 17 23.9%	9 0.0% 10 0.7% 11 6.8% 12 14.8% 13 35.5% 14 42.3%
Denver	3 2.1% 4 4.9% 5 7.3% 6 6.6% 7 3.6% 8 1.5% 9 4.1% 10 9.0% 11 11.8% 12 31.0% 13 15.0% 14 3.0%	10 0.0% 11 5.9% 12 58.1% 13 29.8% 14 6.1%	3 8.6% 4 19.7% 5 29.2% 6 26.3% 7 13.9% 8 2.2% 9 0.1%
Northern Michigan	13 1.4% 14 10.4% 15 32.5% 16 55.6% 17 0.1%	n/a	n/a
Union	2 1.8% 3 7.6% 4 10.0% 5 6.2% 6 6.8% 7 9.5% 8 10.0% 9 11.4% 10 11.4% 11 7.6% 12 6.1% 13 11.4% 14 0.3%	6 0.0% 7 0.2% 8 1.8% 9 9.3% 10 18.1% 11 17.7% 12 17.8% 13 34.3% 14 0.8%	2 7.1% 3 30.4% 4 38.2% 5 17.5% 6 5.4% 7 1.3% 8 0.1%
Merrimack	14 0.0% 15 1.3% 16 15.6% 17 72.2% 18 11.0%	n/a	n/a
SCSU	20 0.0% 21 0.7% 22 13.1% 23 43.9% 24 29.3% 25 11.8% 26 1.3%	n/a	n/a
Cornell	4 0.2% 5 1.2% 6 4.6% 7 9.0% 8 7.3% 9 2.5% 10 0.3% 11 3.4% 12 9.8% 13 33.5% 14 11.5% 15 5.2% 16 7.8% 17 3.8% 18 0.0%	12 0.7% 13 24.9% 14 23.9% 15 15.5% 16 23.5% 17 11.5% 18 0.0%	4 0.8% 5 4.7% 6 18.2% 7 35.9% 8 29.2% 9 10.0% 10 1.3% 11 0.0%
Harvard	15 0.0% 16 0.2% 17 10.7% 18 2.9% 19 23.2% 20 13.7% 21 11.7% 22 2.6% 23 4.6% 24 6.7% 25 7.4% 26 8.5% 27 7.8% 28 0.0%	22 1.8% 23 8.8% 24 18.3% 25 22.2% 26 25.6% 27 23.3% 28 0.0%	15 0.1% 16 0.9% 17 42.8% 18 11.4% 19 44.7%