Weekend Preview: UND vs. Bemidji State

Last season, North Dakota finished out the WCHA regular season with two victories over Minnesota State-Mankato before dispatching Bemidji State at home in the first round of the league playoffs.

Fast forward one year, and it’s much the same. UND hasn’t played the Beavers in 2012-13, but will host Tom Serratore’s squad for a pair before traveling to Mankato to end the regular season. North Dakota looks to be in line to host the first round of the WCHA playoffs, and may likely host Bemidji at the Ralph in two weeks time.

There is a distinct difference between the top nine teams in the league and the bottom three, and wins this weekend and next would almost guarantee that UND would host Bemidji State, Michigan Tech, or Alaska-Anchorage with a trip to the WCHA Final Five on the line.

Bemidji State is in a freefall, winning only one game since December 15th (1-9-4) and being outscored 44-23 in that span. By contrast, North Dakota is 11-4-4 since December 1st, outscoring opponents 67-45.

For the most part, Dave Hakstol has his line combinations set heading into the playoffs. The question mark will be between the pipes, and these next two weekends will determine whether junior Clarke Saunders or freshman Zane Gothberg will take the reins for a run to the Frozen Four.

Bemidji State Team Profile

Head Coach: Tom Serratore (12th season at BSU, 201-181-48 .523)
Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 6-17-7 overal, 5-13-6 WCHA (t-10th)
Last Season: 17-18-3 overall, 11-14-3 WCHA (9th)

Team Offense: 2.07 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.97 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.9% (17 of 90)
Penalty Kill: 81.6% (93 of 114)

Key Players: Senior F Jordan George (8-9-17), Senior F Brance Orban (8-12-20), Senior F Aaron McLeod (11-5-16), Sophomore D Matt Prapavessis (0-9-9), Senior D Brady Wacker (3-5-8), Sophomore G Andrew Walsh (5-10-5, 2.60 GAA, .917 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 230-115-36, .651)
Pairwise Ranking: t-5th
National Ranking: #6
This Season: 17-9-6 overall, 12-6-6 WCHA (t-3rd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.31 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.0% (29 of 132)
Penalty Kill: 82.9% (102 of 123)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (14-29-43), Senior F Danny Kristo (20-23-43), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (10-11-21), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (12-15-27), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-9-13), Sophomore D Dillon Simpson (3-17-20), Junior G Clarke Saunders (11-6-4, 2.31 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 10, 2012 (Grand Forks, ND). Proving the old adage that it’s never easy to end an opponent’s season, North Dakota had to withstand a late Bemidji State rally to prevail 4-3 and sweep the WCHA first round playoff series from the Beavers. BSU senior Jamie McQueen scored two late goals, but it wasn’t quite enough to match UND’s Mark MacMillan-Carter Rowney-Michael Parks line, who followed up a seven-point performance in Friday’s 4-1 victory with a six-point night in the rematch.

Most Important Meeting: October 15, 2010 (Bemidji, MN). In the first game played at the BREC, North Dakota spotted BSU the opening goal less than two minutes into the contest and then steamrolled the Beavers 5-2. The Fighting Sioux outshot their fellow Green-and-Whiters 38-14.

Last Ten: North Dakota has won nine of the last ten meetings between the teams, outscoring BSU 41-20 during that stretch. One of those UND victories was a 4-3 overtime decision in Grand Forks, while Bemidji State’s lone bright spot was a 1-0 home win last season.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 24-2-1 (.907), including a 16-1-1 (.917) record in games played in Grand Forks. Bemidji State’s lone victory in Grand Forks came on February 7, 1970.

Game News and Notes:

UND senior forward Danny Kristo has not scored a single point in six career games against the Beavers. BSU has been outshot in 22 of 27 games this season. North Dakota junior netminder Clarke Saunders faced Bemidji State three times in his career at Alabama-Huntsville, winning one game and losing two others. In overtime games this season, UND has not lost (2-0-6) while BSU has not won (0-3-7).

The Prediction

Everything points to North Dakota domination, but it’s not that simple. Bemidji State has historically played UND tough, and I expect another gritty weekend from the Beavers this time around. Look for a close contest Friday, with North Dakota pulling away on Saturday. UND 3-2, 5-1.

UND needs wins to maintain its lofty ranking

#5 UND has climbed its way back into needing a sweep this weekend just to maintain its current ranking (Current PWR rankings).

Looking at UND’s PWR comparison details, NoDak has very limited upside potential this week. Only the Boston College comparison is obviously within reach, but UND is already ahead of BC in the ranking because of the RPI tie-breaker, so flipping that comparison may not even result in a ranking increase.

UND’s PWR comparisons and RPI details reveal a significant downside, however. The RPI value of winning these games is only .5784, not significantly different enough from UND’s RPI of .5455 to budge it much. The RPI value of losing is .3284, enough to drag down UND’s RPI a fair amount. The PWR comparison details reveal that UND is winning a number of comparisons only by a slim RPI lead (Naigara .5427, Mass.-Lowell .5448, Western Michigan .5384, St Cloud St .5412, and Dartmouth .5216).

Weekend games with the largest effect on UND’s PWR:

Outcome Number of
games		 Average effect
on UND’s PWR
North Dakota over Bemidji State (2 of 2) 4.60
North Dakota over Bemidji State (1 of 2) 2.17
Merrimack over Mass.-Lowell (2 of 2) 1.05
Providence over Boston College (2 of 2) 1.05
Merrimack over Mass.-Lowell (1 of 2) 0.93
Air Force over Niagara (2 of 2) 0.92
Air Force over Niagara (1 of 2) 0.73
Alaska Anchorage over Alaska (2 of 2) 0.70

I did a minimum quick update on UND this week because I’m a little late and last week’s UND closes in on NCAA tournament berth was so comprehensive. However, if there’s anything else you’d like to see or any particular questions you have, just let me know!

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

Weekend Preview: UND at Denver

In the new National Collegiate Hockey Conference, it is clear that Denver/North Dakota will be at the top of the league rivalries.

The two schools clearly do not like each other, and the feud goes all the way back to Geoff Paukovitch’ illegal check on Sioux forward Robbie Bina during the 2005 WCHA Final Five.

Since that game (a Denver victory), the two teams have met six times in tournament play. Denver won the 2005 NCAA title with a victory over North Dakota and claimed a 2008 WCHA Final Five win as well. UND has won the last four playoff games between the schools, including three consecutive victories in the WCHA Final Five (2010-2012) and the 2011 NCAA Midwest Regional final which sent the Fighting Sioux to the Frozen Four.

Along the way, we’ve had dasher dances, brawls, illegal checks, devastating hits, and a certain coach losing his way to the visiting locker room.

Both schools seem to get hit by the “early departure” bug each off-season. For North Dakota, forward Brock Nelson (36-32-68 in 84 games) left after his sophomore campaign while goaltender Aaron Dell (49-20-5, 2.15 GAA, .912 SV%, 9 SO) gave up his final season of eligibility. On the Denver side of the ledger, three Pioneers opted not to return: Drew Shore (50-68-118 in 123 games) gave up his senior season, while fellow forwards Jason Zucker (45-46-91 in 78 games) and Beau Bennett (13-25-38 in 47 games) left two years of eligibility on the table.

Only six WCHA teams are in conference action this weekend, but those three series will clear up the playoff picture for the home stretch. After this weekend, all of the schools will have played the same number of games (24), with the exception of Duluth, who travels to face Minnesota this weekend having already played 24 games.

St. Cloud State is in the driver’s seat with 31 points in 22 games played, but faces a tough test at Colorado College. Minnesota and North Dakota are tied for second in the league in winning percentage (28 points in 22 league games), and whichever team fares better this weekend will be the toughest test for SCSU over the final two weekends.

With Colorado College and Minnesota-Duluth stuck in 8th place with 20 points each, UND fans should be cheering for those two schools to topple St. Cloud State and Minnesota, respectively, to give North Dakota the best possible chance at the MacNaughton Cup.

When Denver came up to Grand Forks in December, Gwozdecky’s squad was on top of the WCHA with a record of 7-2-1 (.750). Since that time, however, they’ve been in freefall, going 3-5-3 (.409). DU has dropped all the way to 7th place in the league and is in danger of missing out on home ice for the first round of the conference playoffs.

Denver Team Profile

Head Coach: George Gwozdecky (19th season at DU, 438-262-64 .615)
Pairwise Ranking: 11th
National Rankings: #10
This Season: 15-7-5 overall, 10-7-5 WCHA (7th)
Last Season: 25-14-4 Overall (NCAA Midwest Regional Semifinalist), 16-8-4 WCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 3.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.66 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.0% (27 of 123)
Penalty Kill: 84.7% (105 of 124)

Key Players: Junior F Nick Shore (11-15-26), Senior F Chris Knowlton (12-12-24), Senior F Shawn Ostrow (10-10-20), Sophomore D Joey LaLeggia (10-14-24), Junior D David Makowski (6-16-22), Sophomore G Juho Olkinuora (9-3-5, 2.11 GAA, .935 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 229-114-36, .652)
Pairwise Ranking: 6th
National Ranking: #6
This Season: 16-8-6 overall, 11-5-6 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.20 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.47 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.6% (25 of 116)
Penalty Kill: 83.8% (93 of 111)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (13-27-40), Senior F Danny Kristo (18-21-39), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (9-9-18), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (10-14-24), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-8-12), Sophomore D Dillon Simpson (2-15-17), Freshman G Zane Gothberg (6-3-2. 2.42 GAA, .918 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 8, 2012 (Grand Forks, ND). Carter Rowney capped a five point weekend with two goals on assists from Rocco Grimaldi as UND prevailed, 6-3. Denver scored twice on a five minute power play in the second period but could not get the equalizer. The two teams skated to a 2-2 tie in Friday’s opener, with North Dakota outshooting the Pios 33-20.

Last Meeting in Denver: February 25, 2012. North Dakota could not capitalize on an early five minute power play, and DU road the momentum all the way to a 5-3 victory over the visiting squad from Grand Forks. Chris Knowlton scored twice for DU, who needed the victory to salvage a series split with UND, who won Friday’s opener 4-3.

Most Important Meeting: It’s hard to pick just one game, as the two teams have played four times for the national title. Denver defeated UND for the national championship in 1958, 1968, and 2005, while the Sioux downed the Pioneers in 1963. And just last season, North Dakota defeated Denver in the WCHA Final Five championship game.

Last Ten Games: North Dakota has had the better of it lately, going 7-2-1 (.750) in the last ten meetings between the schools. Only two of the last ten games between the teams have taken place in Denver, with the teams splitting the weekend series. The two teams have also met three times in the WCHA Final Five (St. Paul) and once in the NCAA regionals during this most recent stretch, with UND winning all four games.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 136-116-9 (.538), but the Pioneers hold a 67-50-3 (.571) record in game played at altitude.

Game News and Notes

UND senior forward Danny Kristo is the active career scoring leader in the NCAA (148 points), and needs six more points to move into the top twenty all time at North Dakota. Both schools are 5-2 in one goal games this season, but North Dakota has scored two overtime winners in eight extra sessions (2-0-6), while DU is winless in seven overtime tries this year (0-2-5). Denver head coach George Gwozdecky just might squat on the dasher in front of his team’s bench.

The Prediction

Everything on paper points to a split this weekend. I have a sneaking suspicion that UND will get off to a slow start in Friday’s opener. A valiant effort will fall just short, but the momentum will carry over into Saturday’s rematch, and North Dakota will head home with two points. DU 4-3, UND 4-2.

UND closes in on NCAA tournament berth

#6 UND has moved much closer to clinching a tournament berth. Winning at least 2 of the remaining 6 would have UND more likely than not in the top 13 in PWR going into the conference tournaments. Even if UND won only 0 or 1 of its remaining games, an at large berth would still be within reach with a good showing in the conference tournament.

Given the above, UND faces a somewhat predictable situation this week of being able to make a small gain with a sweep over Denver, stay pretty much the same with a split, or fall a bit more if swept.

The final weeks of the regular season

Only three teams can’t fall from being a TUC by the end of the regular season: #1 Quinnipiac, #2 Minnesota, and #3 Miami.

Quinnipiac (PWR Details) is particularly safe, even a catastrophe seems to only drop them 3 spots. Winning only 2 of their remaining 4 would leave them with only about a 10% chance of falling from the #1 spot. Their .7778 vs. TUCs is unassailable, and .5828 RPI is miles ahead of #2 Minnesota .5658. To put that RPI into perspective, if Minnesota swept its final 6 games their RPI would only rise to about .5738 (Minnesota RPI details).

#2 Minnesota and #3 Miami each also have good RPI leads over the teams chasing them, coming in at .5658 and .5529 respectively, with #4 New Hampshire at .5477.

However, #2 Minnesota and #3 Miami aren’t alone in vying for the #2 PWR ranking at the end of the regular season. A staggering 9 teams could claim that position: #2 Minnesota, #3 Miami, #4 New Hampshire, #5 Boston College, #6 North Dakota, #7 MSU-Mankato, #9 St. Cloud St, #11 Denver, and #14 Mass.-Lowell.

Interestingly, the list of teams that can finish top 4 isn’t much longer, add only #8 Western Michigan and #10 Niagara to the list.

The team with the most upside potential for the remaining regular season is #29 Providence, which can climb to #8. That’s mostly just because big upward moves are possible from that low a rank (#28 Colgate and #30 Colorado College could each rise to #14).

The team with the most downside potential for the remaining regular season is #13 Boston University (BU PWR details), which could fall to not being a TUC. #13 BU is only #20 in RPI, and is already losing most of its common opponents comparisons.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

Small rankings moves likely for UND in bye week

Idle #6 North Dakota could make some small moves in the Pairwise Rankings (PWR) this week, with anything between 5 and 8 being reasonably likely.

Key games for UND

Matchups that most affect UND’s PWR
Matchup Number
of wins		 Effect on
UND’s PWR
Ohio State over Western Michigan (1 of 2) 1.13
Ohio State over Western Michigan (2 of 2) 1.05

The reason those games (and others) are important can be deduced by studying the PWR comparison details for UND.

UND’s downside potential

Western Michigan is clearly the bigggest threat this week, with UND currently winning the comparison on the back of a very narrow .5470 to .5454 RPI lead.

Niagara is similarly knocking on the door, losing the comparison to UND only on the basis of Niagara’s RPI of .5381.

Finally, Yale could take the comparison with UND by defeating both Union and Rensselaer, thus raising their TUC record to .5667 (vs. UND’s .5470).

UND’s upside potential

Though New Hampshire is winning the comparison to UND 3-0, two of those criteria would flip to UND if New Hampshire got swept. UND could take both RPI and TUC.

Other interesting teams this week

Smallest range of outcomes — #1 Quinnipiac (#1-#1). Sorry Gopher fans, not this week.

Of the teams that have a two comparison or less deficit with Quinnipiac [Quinnipiac PWR comparisons] (only North Dakota, MSU-Mankato, Niagara, Wisconsin, Providence, Holy Cross, and Robert Morris), none can hope to catch their RPI of .5885 any time soon.

Largest range of outcomes — #23 Rensselaer (#13-#32), #25 Colgate (#13-#32), and #20 Merrimack (#12-#31)

Looking at Rensselaer PWR comparisons, Colgate PWR comparisons, and Merrimack PWR comparisons, all have fairly middling RPIs in the .5100s and quite a few comparisons being decided by RPI. That creates a lot of opportunity for both upward and downward movement from that part of the comparison table.

Most upside potential — #31 Robert Morris (#16–non-TUC)

Robert Morris’s story is simple (Robert Morris PWR comparisons): The TUC criterion hasn’t come into play for them yet because they don’t have 10 games and a sweep this weekend (at least a win seems necessary to stay a TUC) would give them an impressive .700 record vs. TUCs. That would immediately flip a lot of the 1-1 comparisons, and some of the 0-2’s vs teams that Robert Morris can overtake on RPI.

Most downside potential — #14 Dartmouth (#9-#27), #18 Nebraska-Omaha (#17-#31)

Dartmouth is tricky; just looking at Dartmouth’s PWR comparisons, it’s not immediately obvious why #14 Dartmouth has so much more downside potential than #15 Alaska [Alaska PWR comparisons], as RPIs and TUCs are similar. Fortunately, the simulations keep track of which games have the biggest effects on each teams, and there’s a valuable clue there:

Matchups that most affect Dartmouth’s PWR
Matchup Number
of wins		 Effect on
Dartmouth’s PWR
Dartmouth over Colgate   5.55
Dartmouth over Cornell   3.94
Brown over Rensselaer   1.56
Brown over Union   1.52
Miami over Notre Dame (2 of 2) 0.98
Lake Superior over Alaska (2 of 2) 0.84
Minnesota over Wisconsin (2 of 2) 0.80
Minnesota over Wisconsin (1 of 2) 0.61
Massachusetts over Mass.-Lowell (1 of 2) 0.58
Lake Superior over Alaska (1 of 2) 0.52
Robert Morris over Niagara (2 of 2) 0.51

The first thing that jumps out is how much Dartmouth wants Brown to win. It turns out that Brown is in danger of not being a TUC, and Dartmouth has 3 wins vs. Brown. Losing those wins would drop Dartmouth’s TUC record from .5333 to .4167. That gives Dartmouth significantly more downside potential with a couple losses than similarly ranked teams with similar RPIs.

Nebraska-Omaha [PWR comparisons], on the other hand, just has a miserable TUC of .3824. Alaska-Anchorage is a weak enough opponent that getting swept would push UNOs RPI from .5196 to about .5086. That would be enough on today’s RPI chart to drop UNO from #17 to #27 in RPI, certainly flipping a lot of comparisons given the poor TUC record. UNO seems to need a sweep not to fall.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

Weekend Preview: UND at Nebraska-Omaha

This weekend’s WCHA action features a pair of contests that will decide the race for the MacNaughton Cup. #1 ranked Minnesota (10-4-4 WCHA, tied for 3rd place) travels to #8 St. Cloud to face the Huskies (14-5-1 WCHA, 1st place) while #7 North Dakota (9-5-6 WCHA, tied for 3rd place) travels to #14 Nebraska-Omaha (12-6-2 WCHA, 2nd place) to play an indoor/outdoor series against Dean Blais and the Mavericks.

Dean Blais’ squad has a distinct North Dakota feel to it, with Steve Johnson beside him on the bench and two forwards named Archibald and Zombo on the ice. UND fans may remember their dads, Jim Archibald and Rick Zombo, who wore the green and white during Blais’ tenure in Grand Forks.

UND took three points last weekend in a home series against Wisconsin, due in large part to the goaltending of freshman Zane Gothberg (50 saves on 52 shots) and the combined efforts of the power play and penalty kill units. North Dakota killed all eight Wisconsin power plays on the weekend and scored three goals in twelve man-advantage situations.

Both schools are getting scoring contributions from the blueline, as UND and UNO are tied for third nationally with 68 points from defensemen. Junior D Andrej Sustr leads the way for the Mavs with 20 points, while sophomore Dillon Simpson has collected 16 points for North Dakota.

A large and vocal UND fan contingent is expected for this weekend in Omaha. Saturday’s game will be played outdoors at TD Ameritrade Park, the home of the College World Series.

Nebraska-Omaha Team Profile

Head Coach: Dean Blais (4th season at UNO, 71-60-16, .537)
Pairwise Ranking: 21st
National Ranking: #14
This Season: 16-10-2 overall, 12-6-2 WCHA (2nd)
Last Season: 14-18-6 overall, 11-12-5 WCHA (7th)

Team Offense: 3.57 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.71 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.6% (19 of 97)
Penalty Kill: 82.9% (97 of 117)

Key Players: Junior F Ryan Walters (16-24-40), Sophomore F Josh Archibald (15-12-27), Sophomore F Dominic Zombo (9-17-26), Junior D Andrej Sustr (7-13-20), Senior D Bryce Aneloski (4-11-15), Senior G John Faulkner (14-5-2, 2.72 GAA, .897 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 227-114-36, .650)
Pairwise Ranking: t-7th
National Ranking: #7
This Season: 14-8-6 overall, 9-5-6 WCHA (t-3rd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.18 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.54 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.6% (24 of 111)
Penalty Kill: 83.7% (87 of 104)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (12-24-36), Senior F Danny Kristo (16-19-35), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (9-9-18), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (9-13-22), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-8-12), Sophomore D Dillon Simpson (2-14-16), Freshman G Zane Gothberg (4-3-2. 2.62 GAA, .910 SV%)

Last meeting: December 10, 2011 (Grand Forks, ND). One night after the visiting Mavs claimed a dramatic 2-1 overtime victory, UND netminder Aaron Dell stopped all 26 shots he faced and junior forward Danny Kristo potted the only goal of the contest early in the third period. North Dakota held on for the 1-0 victory. Ryan Massa stopped 31 of 32 shots for the Mavericks.

Last meeting in Omaha: November 20, 2010. Just when it appeared that the two teams were headed to overtime in a scoreless tie, North Dakota’s Brad Malone kicked the puck out of the crease right onto the stick of UNO’s Alex Hudson, and the Maverick forward buried his chance with 0.3 seconds to play in regulation. The two teams played a completely different game in Friday’s opener, with North Dakota claiming a 6-5 victory.

Most important meeting: Since the two teams have only met six times (and the series is tied at three games apiece), I will call Friday’s opener the most important meeting between the schools.

Game News and Notes

Nebraska-Omaha’s John Faulkner is one victory away from tying Dan Ellis for the most career goaltending victories (53) for the Mavericks. North Dakota only has two current players who have scored a goal against Nebraska-Omaha (Danny Kristo and Carter Rowney). UNO’s Ryan Walter became the nation’s first 40 point scorer with his goal last Friday against Michigan Tech. Friday’s game will air live on NBC Sports Network, while Saturday’s outdoor contest will be featured on Midco Sports Network.

The Prediction

North Dakota’s momentum will carry into Friday’s opener, with the top line of Knight, Kristo, and Grimaldi leading the way. Saturday’s outdoor contest, equal parts sport and spectacle, will go to whichever team can handle the elements and the less-than-perfect ice surface. In the rematch, I give a slight edge to the Mavericks. UND 4-2, UNO 4-3.

PWR forecasts for February 11

#10 North Dakota is facing another typical (for it) week of a little bit of upside potential if they sweep, but a fair amount of downside potential if they get swept. (Current PairWise Rankings)

Special Beanpot note — the simulations already include the results of this week’s Beanpot games, but forecast only through next Monday NOT including the Beanpot.

UND’s upside potential comes primarily from two games:

  • If Canisius sweeps Niagara, UND could take the RPI criterion and win the comparion with Niagara
  • If Minnesota sweeps St Cloud, UND could take the RPI criterion and win the comparison with St Cloud

(UND’s pairwise comparisons detailed)

Other teams of interest this week

Note that “likely” outcomes are those with a greater than 1% chance of occurring.

Team with the narrowest spread of likely outcomes: #1 Quinnipiac (#1-#2)

Team with the largest spread of likely outcomes: #19 Union (#9-#28)

Team with the most upside potential: #21 Nebraska-Omaha (#8-#27)

Team with the most downside potential: #12 MSU-Mankato (#7-#25)

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Wisconsin

Despite better and more consistent play over the past two weekends, North Dakota is still struggling to find victories and finds itself in a precarious position for the NCAA tournament with Wisconsin coming to town.

Sound familiar? It’s the same story as last season. Almost exactly one year ago, UND managed no better than splits against Minnesota and St. Cloud State and needed wins against the Badgers. The Green and White swept Bucky out of the Ralph and went 12-3-1 the rest of the way, earning home ice for the playoffs, claiming the Broadmoor trophy, and making the NCAA West Regional final.

This season, Dave Hakstol’s club has struggled to find victories over the past couple of weekends, earning only a pair of ties and two losses against Minnesota and St. Cloud State. UW comes to town white-hot, with a 10-1-3 mark in the past 14 games, the same 14 games that freshman phenom Nic Kerdiles has been in the lineup.

The teams are tied for fourth in the WCHA race, but North Dakota’s picture nationally looks a little brighter than Wisconsin’s: UW is currently 23rd in the Pairwise rankings, while UND sits in 10th.

Mike Eave’s squad boasts a pair of netminders with sub-2.00 goals-against averages, and his team is allowing exactly two goals per game for the season. The struggle for Bucky has been scoring, particularly on the power play. If the two teams earn the same number of man-advantage opportunities, that situation would favor North Dakota.

For Dave Hakstol, freshman goaltender Zane Gothberg has worked his way into a rotation with Clarke Saunders. As a freshman for Alabama-Huntsville, Saunders faced the Badgers twice, and his line is not very impressive: 0-2-0, 6.73 GAA, .821 SV%. It is fair to say that the junior transfer has a different team in front of him this time around.

On the injury front, Wisconsin will be without the services of senior forward Derek Lee, who is still suffering from the effects of a concussion. Lee is second on the team in scoring with 19 points. North Dakota is healthy up and down the lineup, and appears to have more scoring depth than the Badgers.

Wisconsin Team Profile

Head Coach: Mike Eaves (11th season at UW, 220-164-49, .565)
Pairwise Ranking: 23rd
National Ranking: #19
This Season: 11-8-5 overall, 8-5-5 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 17-18-2 overall, 11-15-2 WCHA (10th)

Team Offense: 2.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 11.4% (8 of 70)
Penalty Kill: 82.4% (70 of 85)

Key Players: Junior F Michael Mersch (15-6-21), Junior F Mark Zengerle (4-9-13), Freshman F Nic Kerdiles (3-7-10 in 14 games), Sophomore D Jake McCabe (2-8-10), Senior D John Ramage (4-3-7), Sophomore G Joel Rumpel (6-6-3, 1.85 GAA, .930 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 226-114-35, .649)
Pairwise Ranking: 10th
National Ranking: #7
This Season: 13-8-5 overall, 8-5-5 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.23 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.65 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.2% (21 of 99)
Penalty Kill: 82.3% (79 of 96)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (12-23-35), Senior F Danny Kristo (15-18-33), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (8-9-17), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (9-11-20), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-8-12), Sophomore D Dillon SImpson (2-12-14), Junior G Clarke Saunders (10-5-4, 2.34 GAA, .914 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 28, 2012 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota rode a strong third period to a 4-2 victory and a series sweep over the visiting Badgers. Wisconsin had swept UND earlier in the year at the Kohl Center. Both Danny Kristo and Brock Nelson had four point weekends for the Green and White.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1982. A 2-2 tie after two periods turns into a 5-2 Sioux victory, as Phil Sykes nets a hat trick and leads UND to its fourth National Championship.

All-time Series: Wisconsin leads the all-time series, 86-64-11 (.568), and holds a 36-32-8 (.526) edge in games played in Grand Forks.

Last Ten: The Badgers have had slightly the better of it in the last ten contests, going 5-4-1 (.550) in that stretch. UND has won four of the last six, outscoring Bucky 21-17.

Game News and Notes

Despite coaching for two fewer seasons than his counterpart on the UW bench, North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol has collected six more victories than Mike Eaves. Remarkably, Wisconsin has lost just once in ten road games (6-1-3). UND senior forward Danny Kristo has ten points in eight career games against the Badgers, including two goals and two assists in a home sweep last season.

The Prediction

Call it a hunch, but it’s February now and this feels like the weekend where UND’s effort translates to goals and victories. It won’t be easy, but North Dakota’s power play and penalty kill will lead the way. UND 2-0, 3-2.

UND has opportunity to rise in rankings

#10 UND has fallen to a much more natural position in the Pairwise Rankings (PWR) than its lofty perch of the last couple weeks. If UND wins, its ranking goes up; it UND loses, its ranking goes down.

Follow up on last week’s predictions

In last week’s Weekly rankings analysis column I observed (and the outcomes were) that:

  • UND had more downside than upside and was likely to slump with anything less than a sweep. (Another one point weekend later, UND indeed fell from #6 to #10, right between the predicted win 1 and win 0 curves).
  • Mass.-Lowell similarly had more downside than upside, with only the comparison with UND as a possible gain and six comparisons as possible losses. (Mass.-Lowell took 3 of 4 points for the weekend and stayed #7 by taking the comparison with UND but losing the comparison with Miami).
  • Ferris St had big movement potential from #21 with a sweep or being swept (Ferris St split the weekend and dropped just one spot to #22).
  • Alaska had big movement potential from #18 (Alaska swept the weekend and climbed to #12, a much higher PWR than RPI).
  • Cornell had big movement potential from #22 (Cornell lost two and dropped to #27).
  • Dartmouth had the most downside potential from #9 (Dartmouth split the weekend and dropped to #15).

Bottom-line: this stuff works and reveals useful information that would be difficult to uncover browsing the comparison tables. But enough back-patting.

Whither UND?

In my first PWR post two weeks ago, I noted that UND was artificially high at #7 and needed to win about 6 of 14 remaining regular season games to finish in the at-large bid range of 13-15. UND has since gone 0-2-2 (.250) but dropped only to #10 in PWR.

UND still has a ton of downside potential if they continue to lose, but things are evening up a little with some upside potential for a sweep.

In the longer run view, the rough equivalent of 1 win has left UND needing about 5 wins in the remaining 10 games to be most likely to finish the regular season in the at-large bid range. Remember, though, that big moves can occur with a winning streak in the conference tournament.

Outcomes that most affect UND’s PWR this week
Outcome Average effect
on UND’s PWR
UND over Wisconsin (2 of 2) 11.57
UND over Wisconsin (1 of 2) 6.84
Holy Cross over Canisius (2 of 2) 1.74
Holy Cross over Canisius (1 of 2) 1.59
Minnesota-Duluth over Denver (2 of 2) 1.30
Michigan Tech over Nebraska-Omaha (2 of 2) 1.10
Minnesota-Duluth over Denver (1 of 2) 1.04
Michigan Tech over Nebraska-Omaha (1 of 2) 0.89
Bentley over Niagara (2 of 2) 0.76
Ferris St over Western Michigan (2 of 2) 0.71
Bentley over Niagara (1 of 2) 0.56
Rensselaer over Dartmouth 0.56

A lot of those are obvious with a quick glance at UND’s PWR comparisons.

  • Holy Cross is in danger of not being a TUC, but UND needs its 2 wins over the Crusaders to contribute to its mediocre record vs. TUCs (currently .500).
  • Denver could pass UND in RPI with a better weekend than North Dakota. Also, Duluth becoming a TUC seems to give UND a little juice (probably due to UND’s 1-0-1 record vs the Bulldogs, better than UND’s record vs current TUCs).
  • Nebraska-Omaha’s RPI could climb to about .539 with a sweep this weekend, which could allow them to take the comparison if UND also drops.
  • Similarly, Niagara and Dartmouth could take their comparisons with UND with a climb in RPI and a drop by UND.
  • Finally, UND barely loses the comparison with Western Michigan on the basis of RPI. Outperforming the Broncos this weekend would probably flip that.

Teams to watch

Biggest potential outcome (likelihood greater than 1%) spread of the week goes to UND (likely to come out between #5 and #23) and Dartmouth (likely to come out between #6 and #24).

Biggest upside potential goes to Nebraska-Omaha, which could climb a staggering 13 slots from #21 to #8 if everything went their way. This is mostly due to their reasonably strong RPI for a #21 team.

Biggest downside potential goes to Mass.-Lowell, which could drop 14 slots from #7 to #21 if everything went wrong. The looming disaster for Mass.-Lowell is clearly their miserable .250 TUC record coming into play when they hit 10 games vs. teams under consideration. It won’t happen this week without a little movement on the cliff (Maine isn’t a TUC), but it will eventually if they don’t gain some wins vs. TUCs.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

Weekend Preview: UND vs. St. Cloud State

As I mentioned in my UND/SCSU Challenge Cup article, North Dakota and St. Cloud State have been paired up as schedule partners and rivals since the 2002-03 season. Two years later, the Center Ice Club created a commemorative trophy to mark the rivalry, and the two teams have been battling it out four times each season to claim the Challenge Cup.

Since that time, UND has had the better of the play, both at home (9-4-3 in the Challenge Cup era) and in St. Cloud (9-6-3). North Dakota has claimed the Cup four times, the teams have shared the trophy three times, and the Huskies won the trophy outright in 2005-06.

The teams split a November series at the National Hockey Center in St. Cloud, so the Cup is on the line this weekend in Grand Forks.

St. Cloud State is tied with Minnesota for first place in the league standings, but the standings are incredibly tight. First and seventh place are separated by only three points, with eighth place Wisconsin (6-5-5 in league play) in the mix as well.

Both teams boast top-end talent and rookies who have made an impact. Special teams will be key this weekend, particularly SCSU’s power play. The Huskies have had 105 man-advantage situations this season and have only been called upon to kill 75 penalties, a difference of more than one full power play per contest. North Dakota’s power play took a step back last weekend, converting only one of ten chances against Minnesota.

The other key this weekend is how different these two teams are on the smaller ice sheet. North Dakota is 10-3-3 this year on NHL ice (7-2-3 at Ralph Engelstad Arena and 3-1 at Notre Dame and Michigan Tech), while St. Cloud State is 3-5 on the road (compared to 11-5 at home). Furthermore, SCSU has only played four games on the narrow sheet this season, splitting road series at Denver and Minnesota-Duluth.

It may not feel this way since UND doesn’t have one marquee offensive defenseman, but the Green and White boast the second-highest scoring d-corps in the country. Blueliners Dillon Simpson, Derek Forbort, Joe Gleason, and Nick Mattson have all reached double digits in points this season. Of that foursome, only Joe Gleason is a senior.

There are twenty current NCAA Division I men’s hockey players with at least 100 career points, and four of them will be on the ice this weekend. North Dakota’s Danny Kristo (140) and Corban Knight (130) will be joined by St. Cloud State’s Drew LeBlanc (131) and LeBlanc’s teammate, Ben Hanowski, who joined the Century Club with a three point game (one goal, two assists) against Denver last Saturday night.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: (Bob Motzko, 8th season at SCSU, 151-119-34, .553)
Pairwise Ranking: 14th
National Ranking: #16
This Season: 14-10-0 overall, 11-5-0 WCHA (t-1st)
Last Season: 17-17-5 overall, 12-12 4 WCHA (6th)

Team Offense: 3.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.54 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.1% (19 of 105)
Penalty Kill: 84.0% (63 of 75)

Key Players: Junior F Nic Dowd (11-15-26), Senior F Drew LeBlanc (7-27-34), Senior F Ben Hanowski (8-10-18), Junior D Nick Jensen (3-16-19), Sophomore D Andrew Prochno (2-12-14), Sophomore G Ryan Faragher (13-8-0, 2.29 GAA, .911 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (9th season at UND, 226-113-34, .651)
Pairwise Ranking: t-6th
National Ranking: #5
This Season: 13-7-4 overall, 8-4-4 WCHA (t-3rd)
Last Season: 26-13-3 overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.67 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.4% (20 of 95)
Penalty Kill: 82.2% (74 of 90)

Key Players: Senior F Corban Knight (11-22-33), Senior F Danny Kristo (14-17-31), Sophomore F Mark MacMillan (8-9-17), Freshman F Rocco Grimaldi (8-11-19), Junior D Derek Forbort (4-8-12), Sophomore D Dillon SImpson (2-12-14), Junior G Clarke Saunders (10-5-3, 2.37 GAA, .915 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 10, 2012 (St. Cloud, MN). One night after Clarke Saunders stopped all 32 shots he faced in a 3-0 UND victory, St. Cloud State scored five times on 37 shots in a 5-2 home victory. Senior forward Drew LeBlanc scored twice and added an assist for the Huskies, who claimed two points and drew even in the race for the 2012-2013 Challenge Cup.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: October 29, 2011. In a reversal of the storyline from the last series in St. Cloud, UND rebounded from a Friday shutout loss (4-0) to claim a Saturday home victory. Mark MacMillan, Corban Knight, and Brock Nelson all scored second period goals as North Dakota avoided starting the WCHA portion of their schedule 0-4 for the first time in program history.

Most Important Meeting: March 17, 2001 (St. Paul, MN). St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 60-32-11 (.636), with a stellar 30-13-5 (.677) mark in games played in Grand Forks.

Last Ten: North Dakota has had the edge lately, posting a 6-3-1 (.650) record in the last ten meetings between the teams. UND has outscored St. Cloud State 28-23 during that span.

Game News and Notes

SCSU freshman forward Kalle Kossila leads the nation’s rookies with 11 goals. UND senior center Corban Knight is riding a 19 game point streak, the fourth-longest in school history. Knight has collected nine goals and 22 assists during that stretch. St. Cloud State has not tied a game this season (14-10-0), while UND has already knotted four games (13-7-4). North Dakota linemates Corban Knight and Danny Kristo have 30 career points in 30 games against the Huskies.

The Prediction

I could easily make a case for a three point weekend either way. St. Cloud State is flying high after a sweep of Denver last weekend (5-2, 5-1), while North Dakota is back at home after an emotional series at Minnesota. UND has only lost four home games to SCSU over the past eight seasons, so I’ll give the slight edge to North Dakota. Saturday’s rematch will go to overtime, with the Green and White salvaging a tie and claiming the Challenge Cup. UND 4-3, 3-3 tie.

On a Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of SiouxSports.com and the Center Ice Club, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. inside the Muddy Rivers Ballroom (710 First Avenue North) near downtown Grand Forks. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, win fabulous door prizes, enjoy a free appetizer bar, and view the Challenge Cup. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.