Category: Men’s Hockey

SiouxSports.com has received a transcript of UND coach Dave Hakstol’s stirring timeout speech during the WCHA Final Five semifinal clash with rival Minnesota. The audio feed was picked up by a microphone placed near the UND bench, recorded by FSN, and made available to the media for the first time today.

Dave Hakstol called his timeout with 5:53 remaining in the second period. At the time, North Dakota trailed 23-4 on the shot chart and 3-0 on the scoreboard. After rallying his troops, the Fighting Sioux outshot the Gophers 24-2 and scored six unanswered goals, leaving the Maroon and Gold with few answers.

In the post-game press conference, the UND coach stated that there was nothing special said at all. What follows is a verbatim transcript of the timeout speech. It is left to the reader to determine if Hakstol’s words were special.

“Alright, boys. We’ve got 5:53 left before the break and we need one. We need one goal, we’ve got all our fans here and they’re waiting for a reason to get behind us. Some of you were in this building last April when we couldn’t get that first one, and if we had, the whole thing would have gone our way. So let’s change some of that tonight. Look around you, there’s a lot of green out there, and those fans want to wear green again tomorrow. And remember, this may be the last time you ever put on the Sioux jersey. So think about how you want it to feel when you take it off ninety minutes from now. Courage, pride, honor, overcoming adversity, and winning battles. That’s what it means every time you put that logo on. You’ve got it in you, and it’s yours for the taking. Heck, if we get the first one, we might get seven tonight. Let’s go.”

Ralph Engelstad Arena plans to use the audio from the timeout at UND men’s hockey games next season in much the same way that the “Kid Herb Brooks” speech has been used in the past.

I sent an email to FSN inquiring why it took so long for the audio transcript to be released, and received a reply which said, in part: “We chose not to release the audio until after the two teams met on the ice during the NCAA tournament. We knew that North Dakota’s rabid fan base would seize on this information and create an unfair advantage for UND over the host school Minnesota.”

It’s interesting to hear fans of both schools claiming the “underdog” label in advance of today’s West Regional Final at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul.

From the Minnesota side: UND is the higher seed, they’re hot right now, and they just throttled the Gophers nine days ago, scoring six unanswered goals on their way to a third consecutive WCHA Final Five championship.

From the North Dakota side: Minnesota is playing at home, they won the MacNaughton Cup as WCHA regular season champions, and they’re hopping mad after allowing six unanswered goals in the WCHA Final Five semifinals.

I think that both sides are attempting to limit expectations and soften the blow in case their favorite team comes out on the losing end of this latest chapter in a long and storied rivalry.

As I sat at Xcel Energy Center last weekend and watched both halves of the same hockey game, I remarked that these two schools have got to find a way to continue playing each other. It’s important for both sides to put aside pride and personal politics and reach a schedule agreement, one that has each school traveling to the other in alternate years. It’s good for the fans, it’s good for each program, and it’s good for the sport.

After not meeting in the national tournament for 25 years (1980-2004), Sunday’s regional final will mark the third NCAA playoff game between North Dakota and Minnesota over the past eight seasons. UND defeated Minnesota 4-2 in the 2005 Frozen Four semifinals and claimed a 3-2 overtime victory over the Golden Gophers to advance to the 2007 Frozen Four.

More recently, the Fighting Sioux dispatched Minnesota in the first round of the 2010 WCHA playoffs by a combined score of 12-5.

Minnesota can claim a 2007 WCHA Final Five championship victory over North Dakota. Gopher fans will remember Blake Wheeler’s overtime winner, while fans of the Green and White prefer to remember Chris Porter’s sudden death tally eight days later, ending Minnesota’s season and propelling UND to the Frozen Four.

All told, North Dakota is 6-2 in the last eight playoff meetings (WCHA and NCAA) between the teams.

One overlooked factor heading into the West Regional final is that North Dakota will have the last line change as the higher seed. With all of the TV timeouts, Minnesota’s depth will not be as much of a factor as it was during the regular season.

Minnesota Team Profile

Head Coach: Don Lucia (13th season at Minnesota, 317-172-54, .634)
Pairwise Ranking: t-6th
National Rankings: #6/#6
This Season: 27-13-1 overall, 20-8-0 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 16-14-6 overall (missed NCAA tournament), 13-10-5 WCHA (5th)

Team Offense: 3.63 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.22 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 23.2% (42 of 181)
Penalty Kill: 80.7% (146 of 181)

Key Players: Sophomore F Erik Haula (19-28-47), Freshman F Kyle Rau (18-24-42), Sophomore F Nick Bjugstad (25-16-41), Sophomore D Nate Schmidt (3-37-40), Sophomore D Mark Alt (5-17-22), Senior G Kent Patterson (27-13-1, 2.24 GAA, .910 SV%, 7 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 213-105-30, .655)
Pairwise Ranking: 3rd
National Rankings: #4/#4
This Season: 26-12-3 overall, 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.24 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.51 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.3% (40 of 179)
Penalty Kill: 81.2% (134 of 165)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (18-26-44) Junior F Corban Knight (16-24-40), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (28-18-46), Freshman D Nick Mattson (6-13-19), Senior D Ben Blood (3-18-21), Junior G Aaron Dell (18-9-2, 2.58 GAA, .903 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: March 16, 2012 (St. Paul, MN). Minnesota took three of four games from North Dakota in the regular season and appeared poised to advance to the WCHA Final Five title game, leading UND 3-0 midway through the middle period. But the Fighting Sioux rattled off six unanswered goals, left the Gophers shell-shocked, and ensured that Xcel Energy Center would be green for St. Patrick’s Day the following night.

Last meeting in the NCAA tournament: March 25, 2007 (Denver, CO). Minnesota had defeated UND eight days earlier to win the WCHA Final Five on Blake Wheeler’s diving overtime winner, but North Dakota got the last laugh. Chris Porter scored on a wraparound (Michael Parks, anyone?) midway through the first overtime and the Fighting Sioux were on their way to the Frozen Four. Ryan Duncan and Robbie Bina also scored for the Green and White and Phillippe Lamoureux stopped 27 of 29 Gopher shots.

Most important meeting: March 24, 1979 (Detroit, MI). North Dakota and Minnesota met to decide the national championship, and the Gophers prevailed, 4-3.

All-time: Minnesota leads the all-time series by a slim margin, 136-130-14 (.511), but North Dakota has won six of the past eight playoff meetings (WCHA and NCAA) between the two teams.

Recent history: Each team has won five of the last ten games between the schools, and the teams have split four games at Xcel Energy Center.

Game News and Notes

Dave Hakstol is 17-12-3 against Minnesota in his head coaching career. UND junior goaltender Aaron Dell is 13-0 in the month of March. In an effort to alleviate parking concerns, Minnesota fans are asked to park in St. Cloud and walk to Xcel Energy Center.

The Prediction

Just like last Friday night, tonight’s contest will be decided by special teams, goaltending, and momentum. If North Dakota has any edge at all, it’s in the faceoff circle. No matter which way this game goes down, it will add yet another chapter to one of the greatest rivalries in all of college sports. I see this one as a tight game either way, with an empty netter sealing it at the end. If UND head coach Dave Hakstol had more than one timeout at his disposal. I would go with North Dakota. As it is, however, I think Minnesota takes this one and gets their crack at Boston College in the Frozen Four. MN 5, UND 3.

The first game of the 2012 NCAA West Regionals features a team that has made a strong second-half run, winning its conference playoffs with the tournament MVP in goal.

And the other team is North Dakota.

UND fans may not know much about the Western Michigan Broncos, as the teams haven’t played in 14 years and have faced off only four times in college hockey history. But the Broncos, led by first-year head coach Andy Murray (Los Angeles Kings, St. Louis Blues) has his team on a run similar to the Fighting Sioux.

Since the calendar turned to 2012, WMU has gone 11-8-1, but more impressively, they’re unbeaten in their last six games and boast playoff wins over Miami and Michigan en route to the CCHA playoff championship.

For UND, it’s just another second half surge. Dave Hakstol’s club is 15-4-1 in 2012 and has won seven games in a row, including wins over Minnesota and Denver at the WCHA Final Five. Of North Dakota’s four second half losses, only one came at the hands of a team that did not make the NCAA tournament (St. Cloud State).

The difference in this one could come down to experience between the pipes. Western Michigan’s Frank Slubowski is good, but he’s a freshman and hadn’t been playoff tested until last weekend.

North Dakota’s Aaron Dell, a junior, has never lost a game in March, boasting a record of 12-0-0 with a goals-against average of 1.21 and a save percentage of .950.

Western Michigan Team Profile

Head Coach: (Andy Murray, 1st season at WMU, 21-13-6 .600)
Pairwise Ranking: 14th
National Rankings: #12/#12
This Season: 21-13-6 overall, 14-10-4-4 CCHA (t-2nd)
Last Season: 19-13-10 overall (NCAA Midwest Regional semifinalist), 10-9-9-5 CCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 2.83 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.23 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.8% (36 of 173)
Penalty Kill: 84.9% (135 of 159)

Key Players: Sophomore F Chase Balisy (13-24-37), Sophomore F Shane Berschbach (10-22-32), Junior F Dane Walters (16-13-29), Junior D Matt Tennyson (11-13-24), Sophomore D Danny DeKeyser (5-11-16), Freshman G Frank Slubowski (17-10-4, 2.03 GAA, .910 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 212-105-30, .654)
Pairwise Ranking: 4th
National Rankings: #4/#4
This Season: 25-12-3 overall, 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.25 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.55 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.6% (40 of 177)
Penalty Kill: 80.9% (131 of 162)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (18-25-43) Junior F Corban Knight (15-24-39), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (27-17-44), Freshman D Nick Mattson (6-13-19), Senior D Ben Blood (3-17-20), Junior G Aaron Dell (17-9-2, 2.64 GAA, .901 SV%, 2 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 3, 1998 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota steamrolled the visiting Broncos 5-1 after taking Friday’s opener by the score of 12-5. UND had traveled to Kalamazoo, Michigan the previous season and swept WMU by scores of 6-3 and 5-3.

Most Important Meeting: The two teams have never met in the playoffs, so I will go with Saturday’s regional semifinal as the most important meeting between the two teams.

All-time Series: UND has won all four meetings between the schools. The teams last met during the 1997-98 season.

Game News and Notes

UND head coach Dave Hakstol has a 10-2 record in NCAA regionals and has 41 total playoff wins in his career at North Dakota. WMU head coach Andy Murray is in his first season behind the Bronco bench; Murray’s son, Brady, played for the Fighting Sioux from 2003-05. Both team’s goaltenders (Frank Slubowski, WMU, and Aaron Dell, UND) were named the MVP of their respective conference tournaments last weekend.

The Prediction

This game will be tighter than many fans are suggesting. If the Broncos come out of the gates flying, expect Minnesota fans in attendance to adopt WMU as their own. North Dakota will survive this one, but it won’t be easy. UND 3, WMU 2.

Bonus Prediction:

In the late game on Saturday, Minnesota and Boston University will lock horns for the right to advance to the West Regional final. The Golden Gophers will falter early but find their legs late. I see this one going to overtime, with the Maroon and Gold edging the Terriers. MN 4, BU 3 (OT).

Everyone’s favorite college hockey ranking system, KRACH, has the nice feature that it can be used to assign probabilities to potential matchups.

Here’s what KRACH’s forecast for the odds for each team emerging as the winner of each round the NCAA Ice Hockey tournament:

KRACH		Game 1	Game 2 (Region Champ)	Game 3 (Frozen four semifinal)	Game 4 (National Champ)
	West
100	1. North Dakota	52.74%	28.36%	13.03%	6.89%
89.6042	4. Western Michigan	47.26%	24.12%	10.45%	5.24%
84.9926	2. Minnesota	49.43%	23.35%	9.82%	4.79%
86.9526	3. Boston U.	50.57%	24.17%	10.30%	5.09%
	Northeast
154.831	1. Boston College	87.67%	55.51%	35.01%	22.18%
21.7819	4. Air Force	12.33%	2.41%	0.47%	0.09%
91.1404	2. Minn. Duluth	50.81%	21.56%	10.81%	5.47%
88.2171	3. Maine	49.19%	20.52%	10.12%	5.03%
	East
71.9621	1. Union	47.27%	21.03%	9.29%	3.72%
80.2812	4. Michigan St	52.73%	24.89%	11.65%	4.97%
97.2908	2. Miami (OH)	54.35%	30.47%	15.71%	7.43%
81.7069	3. Mass.-Lowell	45.65%	23.61%	11.16%	4.81%
	Midwest
114.097	1. Michigan	70.06%	39.72%	22.92%	11.74%
48.7625	4. Cornell	29.94%	10.74%	3.96%	1.24%
91.2115	2. Ferris St.	52.39%	26.53%	13.84%	6.33%
82.9009	3. Denver	47.61%	23.01%	11.46%	4.98%

A few observations:
* UND’s predicted 53% chance of winning the opening round game is lower than any 1 seed in the previous 4 years I’ve been doing this
* Union is even worse off, not even favored to win its 1 vs 4 matchup
* Similarly, 2 seed Minnesota is an underdog to Boston University
* The largest line in any 2 vs 3 matchup is 54%-46%, Miami over Mass.-Lowell

Again, I can’t stress enough how experimental the “tournament invites” line is.

Here are the PWR possibilities that seem to remain (as always, assuming RPI is the tie-breaker)…

Team	PWR Possibilities
	Overall	If team wins none	If team wins all
Boston College	1 100.0% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	1 100.0%	1 100.0%
Michigan	2 100.0% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	2 100.0%	2 100.0%
Miami	3 2.4% 4 11.8% 5 11.5% 6 4.9% 7 2.1% 8 17.7% 9 20.8% 10 10.4% 11 11.5% 12 6.9% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	8 25.5% 9 31.3% 10 15.6% 11 17.2% 12 10.4%	3 7.3% 4 35.4% 5 34.4% 6 14.6% 7 6.3% 8 2.1%
UMD	6 11.5% 7 42.0% 8 36.5% 9 10.1% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	n/a	n/a
Ferris State	4 31.3% 5 38.9% 6 17.7% 7 9.4% 8 2.8% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	n/a	n/a
Boston University	7 2.4% 8 9.7% 9 24.0% 10 33.7% 11 18.4% 12 11.8% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	n/a	n/a
UMN	6 8.0% 7 15.3% 8 26.4% 9 28.1% 10 18.4% 11 3.8% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	n/a	n/a
Maine	3 10.1% 4 8.3% 5 19.1% 6 10.8% 7 1.7% 8 0.0% 9 7.6% 10 17.4% 11 22.2% 12 2.8% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	9 15.3% 10 34.7% 11 44.4% 12 5.6%	3 20.1% 4 16.7% 5 38.2% 6 21.5% 7 3.5%
UND	3 25.0% 4 25.7% 5 6.9% 6 18.1% 7 19.4% 8 4.9% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	4 1.4% 5 13.9% 6 36.1% 7 38.9% 8 9.7%	3 50.0% 4 50.0%
Mass.-Lowell	8 0.7% 9 4.5% 10 8.0% 11 11.5% 12 75.3% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	n/a	n/a
Michigan State	13 24.3% 14 24.7% 15 37.5% 16 9.0% 17 4.5% Tournament invites: 189 (65.6%)	n/a	n/a
Western Michigan	13 34.0% 14 41.3% 15 24.7% Tournament invites: 252 (87.5%)	13 1.4% 14 49.3% 15 49.3%	13 66.7% 14 33.3%
Denver	3 12.5% 4 13.2% 5 11.8% 6 12.5% 7 0.0% 8 0.0% 9 3.5% 10 11.5% 11 31.9% 12 3.1% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	9 6.9% 10 22.9% 11 63.9% 12 6.3%	3 25.0% 4 26.4% 5 23.6% 6 25.0%
Northern Michigan	14 9.0% 15 32.6% 16 57.6% 17 0.7% Tournament invites: 73 (25.3%)	n/a	n/a
Union	3 50.0% 4 9.7% 5 11.8% 6 16.7% 7 7.6% 8 1.4% 9 1.4% 10 0.7% 11 0.7% Tournament invites: 288 (100.0%)	4 19.4% 5 23.6% 6 33.3% 7 15.3% 8 2.8% 9 2.8% 10 1.4% 11 1.4%	3 100.0%
Merrimack	15 5.2% 16 33.3% 17 58.0% 18 3.5% Tournament invites: 14 (4.9%)	n/a	n/a
SCSU	23 12.5% 24 54.2% 25 33.3% Tournament invites: 0 (0.0%)	n/a	n/a
Cornell	13 41.7% 14 25.0% 15 0.0% 16 0.0% 17 33.3% Tournament invites: 192 (66.7%)	13 12.5% 14 37.5% 15 0.0% 16 0.0% 17 50.0%	13 100.0%
Harvard	17 3.5% 18 28.8% 19 26.0% 20 35.1% 21 6.6% Tournament invites: 144 (50.0%)	19 16.7% 20 70.1% 21 13.2%	17 6.9% 18 57.6% 19 35.4%

Here’s a quick PairWise Rankings update at the break in action.

At the request of some gentlemen on the USCHO forum I’ve tried adding a probability of making the tournament statistic. It’s based on a combination of the team’s rank and the number of non top 16 autoqualifiers in each scenario. When perfected, it should provide some really useful information, but I just whipped it up this afternoon and it has not been through much quality control so for now should definitely be treated as experimental and not quoted.

Team	PWR Possibilities
	Overall	If team wins none	If team wins all
Boston College	1 75.0% 2 25.0% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	1 75.0% 2 25.0%	1 75.0% 2 25.0%
Michigan	2 66.0% 3 29.0% 4 4.2% 5 0.8% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	2 47.9% 3 37.1% 4 12.5% 5 2.5%	2 75.0% 3 25.0%
Miami	3 0.2% 4 3.0% 5 7.9% 6 9.5% 7 12.6% 8 16.5% 9 14.1% 10 16.6% 11 15.4% 12 4.1% 13 0.2% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	7 6.2% 8 19.2% 9 20.5% 10 24.8% 11 23.0% 12 6.1% 13 0.3%	3 0.7% 4 8.9% 5 23.7% 6 28.5% 7 25.5% 8 11.1% 9 1.4% 10 0.3%
UMD	1 25.0% 2 0.0% 3 3.0% 4 7.9% 5 13.4% 6 10.2% 7 19.5% 8 16.0% 9 4.6% 10 0.3% 11 0.0% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	5 1.9% 6 17.1% 7 39.0% 8 31.9% 9 9.3% 10 0.7% 11 0.1%	1 100.0%
Ferris State	3 3.4% 4 16.0% 5 32.5% 6 30.8% 7 14.7% 8 2.5% 9 0.1% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	n/a	n/a
Boston University	2 4.0% 3 20.1% 4 12.8% 5 6.4% 6 3.8% 7 4.6% 8 10.8% 9 16.9% 10 11.7% 11 5.9% 12 2.5% 13 0.4% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	7 4.9% 8 20.3% 9 33.7% 10 23.4% 11 11.9% 12 5.1% 13 0.8%	2 16.1% 3 63.7% 4 20.2%
UMN	2 0.6% 3 12.8% 4 11.2% 5 7.4% 6 9.1% 7 13.9% 8 16.3% 9 15.0% 10 9.9% 11 3.5% 12 0.2% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	5 0.2% 6 2.6% 7 13.8% 8 27.7% 9 28.5% 10 19.8% 11 6.9% 12 0.5%	2 2.5% 3 47.9% 4 36.7% 5 9.4% 6 2.7% 7 0.9%
Maine	3 2.5% 4 6.3% 5 9.1% 6 4.8% 7 2.3% 8 1.2% 9 4.0% 10 12.6% 11 20.9% 12 24.6% 13 11.2% 14 0.5% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	10 0.0% 11 29.7% 12 47.1% 13 22.2% 14 0.9%	3 9.9% 4 25.2% 5 36.5% 6 19.3% 7 9.0%
UND	2 0.7% 3 8.6% 4 13.6% 5 2.8% 6 4.7% 7 7.7% 8 9.2% 9 13.9% 10 20.0% 11 15.6% 12 3.0% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	7 1.1% 8 6.6% 9 20.7% 10 35.5% 11 30.3% 12 5.8%	2 2.9% 3 34.5% 4 54.3% 5 8.3%
Mass.-Lowell	6 1.1% 7 4.8% 8 11.8% 9 16.4% 10 13.7% 11 22.2% 12 23.4% 13 6.4% 14 0.3% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	n/a	n/a
Michigan State	13 9.5% 14 31.3% 15 49.5% 16 4.5% 17 5.3% Tournament invites: 12560 (68.1%)	n/a	n/a
Western Michigan	9 0.0% 10 0.4% 11 3.1% 12 8.4% 13 24.9% 14 39.4% 15 23.9% Tournament invites: 15698 (85.2%)	13 6.5% 14 45.7% 15 47.8%	9 0.0% 10 0.8% 11 6.2% 12 16.7% 13 43.3% 14 33.0%
Denver	3 2.7% 4 4.7% 5 6.6% 6 8.8% 7 2.0% 8 1.3% 9 3.1% 10 7.8% 11 11.5% 12 29.5% 13 17.1% 14 5.0% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	11 1.9% 12 53.9% 13 34.1% 14 10.0%	3 10.9% 4 18.8% 5 26.3% 6 35.0% 7 7.8% 8 1.2%
Northern Michigan	14 2.2% 15 23.3% 16 74.1% 17 0.4% Tournament invites: 2808 (15.2%)	n/a	n/a
Union	2 3.7% 3 17.7% 4 20.0% 5 10.2% 6 9.3% 7 10.1% 8 10.2% 9 10.2% 10 6.6% 11 1.9% 12 0.2% Tournament invites: 18432 (100.0%)	4 2.1% 5 6.5% 6 13.8% 7 19.2% 8 20.3% 9 20.4% 10 13.3% 11 3.9% 12 0.4%	2 7.3% 3 35.4% 4 37.9% 5 13.8% 6 4.7% 7 0.9%
Merrimack	15 0.6% 16 12.4% 17 74.3% 18 12.7% Tournament invites: 106 (0.6%)	n/a	n/a
SCSU	21 0.7% 22 14.0% 23 44.2% 24 32.7% 25 8.5% Tournament invites: 0 (0.0%)	n/a	n/a
Cornell	4 0.4% 5 2.8% 6 7.9% 7 7.9% 8 4.3% 9 1.6% 10 0.3% 11 0.0% 12 4.2% 13 30.4% 14 21.3% 15 2.6% 16 8.4% 17 8.1% 18 0.0% Tournament invites: 14908 (80.9%)	13 15.3% 14 27.3% 15 7.7% 16 25.2% 17 24.4% 18 0.0%	4 1.7% 5 11.0% 6 31.4% 7 31.4% 8 17.2% 9 6.3% 10 1.0%
Harvard	15 0.2% 16 0.7% 17 11.8% 18 4.1% 19 31.4% 20 13.9% 21 3.5% 22 1.2% 23 4.1% 24 4.1% 25 9.0% 26 5.9% 27 9.9% Tournament invites: 4608 (25.0%)	22 0.8% 23 12.1% 24 12.3% 25 27.1% 26 17.8% 27 29.8%	15 0.6% 16 2.8% 17 47.4% 18 16.3% 19 32.9%

The Sioux now seem a lock for the NCAA championship and St. Cloud State’s season is done.

With Mich. Tech and St. Cloud both eliminated, it seems the WCHA can only be won by a team in the top 16, thus only 4 slots can be taken by autobids outside the top 16. So, #12 in the PairWise Rankings should be safe.

Remembering from the Deeper dive into whether UND will make the NCAA tournament that UND can do no worse than #12 after defeating St. Cloud, the Sioux now seem a lock for the NCAA tournament.

Here are the remaining possibilities for the key 19:

Team	PWR Possibilities
	Overall	Win none	Win all
Boston College	1 76.0% 2 23.5% 3 0.5%	1 76.3% 2 23.7%	1 76.9% 2 23.1%
Michigan	1 0.3% 2 65.2% 3 27.9% 4 5.0% 5 1.4% 6 0.2%	2 49.4% 3 33.3% 4 12.4% 5 4.3% 6 0.6%	2 75.0% 3 25.0%
Miami	1 0.3% 2 2.7% 3 16.6% 4 15.3% 5 13.0% 6 12.5% 7 10.4% 8 8.6% 9 7.4% 10 7.1% 11 5.0% 12 1.2% 13 0.1%	5 0.1% 6 3.3% 7 13.9% 8 21.0% 9 21.8% 10 21.2% 11 14.9% 12 3.5% 13 0.2%	1 1.2% 2 10.7% 3 56.9% 4 28.1% 5 2.9% 6 0.2%
UMD	1 23.4% 2 2.7% 3 3.0% 4 8.8% 5 13.6% 6 13.0% 7 16.6% 8 13.4% 9 4.6% 10 0.8% 11 0.1%	3 0.0% 4 1.7% 5 8.5% 6 19.7% 7 32.4% 8 26.7% 9 9.1% 10 1.6% 11 0.3%	1 93.6% 2 6.4%
Ferris State	3 5.5% 4 17.6% 5 29.0% 6 28.8% 7 14.9% 8 4.0% 9 0.3%	n/a	n/a
Boston University	2 3.1% 3 13.6% 4 10.2% 5 7.3% 6 7.7% 7 10.8% 8 15.3% 9 16.0% 10 10.4% 11 4.4% 12 1.1% 13 0.1%	5 0.0% 6 1.1% 7 10.6% 8 25.5% 9 30.8% 10 20.7% 11 8.7% 12 2.3% 13 0.3%	2 12.5% 3 49.5% 4 29.5% 5 7.3% 6 1.1% 7 0.1%
UMN	2 0.6% 3 12.2% 4 12.2% 5 8.1% 6 7.7% 7 11.9% 8 17.2% 9 17.4% 10 9.7% 11 2.7% 12 0.3% 13 0.0%	5 0.1% 6 2.5% 7 12.0% 8 27.2% 9 32.9% 10 19.3% 11 5.4% 12 0.5% 13 0.0%	2 2.2% 3 45.2% 4 37.3% 5 12.8% 6 1.9% 7 0.5% 8 0.1%
Maine	3 1.0% 4 5.3% 5 8.7% 6 7.5% 7 2.6% 8 1.2% 9 4.9% 10 13.7% 11 24.0% 12 22.9% 13 8.1% 14 0.2%	10 5.9% 11 34.7% 12 42.9% 13 16.1% 14 0.4%	3 3.8% 4 21.2% 5 34.8% 6 29.8% 7 9.9% 8 0.4% 9 0.0%
UND	2 0.5% 3 10.0% 4 10.4% 5 4.3% 6 4.1% 7 7.1% 8 11.0% 9 19.1% 10 20.1% 11 11.6% 12 1.8%	6 0.1% 7 1.8% 8 10.8% 9 27.6% 10 34.4% 11 21.7% 12 3.6%	2 1.9% 3 40.1% 4 41.7% 5 14.5% 6 1.8% 7 0.1%
Mass.-Lowell	6 0.6% 7 3.8% 8 10.6% 9 12.3% 10 17.3% 11 27.8% 12 22.0% 13 5.5% 14 0.1%	n/a	n/a
Michigan State	13 11.4% 14 40.7% 15 38.4% 16 4.2% 17 5.3%	n/a	n/a
Western Michigan	9 0.0% 10 0.2% 11 1.7% 12 3.7% 13 13.5% 14 33.7% 15 22.6% 16 16.6% 17 8.0%	13 1.2% 14 8.9% 15 16.2% 16 49.8% 17 23.9%	9 0.0% 10 0.7% 11 6.8% 12 14.8% 13 35.5% 14 42.3%
Denver	3 2.1% 4 4.9% 5 7.3% 6 6.6% 7 3.6% 8 1.5% 9 4.1% 10 9.0% 11 11.8% 12 31.0% 13 15.0% 14 3.0%	10 0.0% 11 5.9% 12 58.1% 13 29.8% 14 6.1%	3 8.6% 4 19.7% 5 29.2% 6 26.3% 7 13.9% 8 2.2% 9 0.1%
Northern Michigan	13 1.4% 14 10.4% 15 32.5% 16 55.6% 17 0.1%	n/a	n/a
Union	2 1.8% 3 7.6% 4 10.0% 5 6.2% 6 6.8% 7 9.5% 8 10.0% 9 11.4% 10 11.4% 11 7.6% 12 6.1% 13 11.4% 14 0.3%	6 0.0% 7 0.2% 8 1.8% 9 9.3% 10 18.1% 11 17.7% 12 17.8% 13 34.3% 14 0.8%	2 7.1% 3 30.4% 4 38.2% 5 17.5% 6 5.4% 7 1.3% 8 0.1%
Merrimack	14 0.0% 15 1.3% 16 15.6% 17 72.2% 18 11.0%	n/a	n/a
SCSU	20 0.0% 21 0.7% 22 13.1% 23 43.9% 24 29.3% 25 11.8% 26 1.3%	n/a	n/a
Cornell	4 0.2% 5 1.2% 6 4.6% 7 9.0% 8 7.3% 9 2.5% 10 0.3% 11 3.4% 12 9.8% 13 33.5% 14 11.5% 15 5.2% 16 7.8% 17 3.8% 18 0.0%	12 0.7% 13 24.9% 14 23.9% 15 15.5% 16 23.5% 17 11.5% 18 0.0%	4 0.8% 5 4.7% 6 18.2% 7 35.9% 8 29.2% 9 10.0% 10 1.3% 11 0.0%
Harvard	15 0.0% 16 0.2% 17 10.7% 18 2.9% 19 23.2% 20 13.7% 21 11.7% 22 2.6% 23 4.6% 24 6.7% 25 7.4% 26 8.5% 27 7.8% 28 0.0%	22 1.8% 23 8.8% 24 18.3% 25 22.2% 26 25.6% 27 23.3% 28 0.0%	15 0.1% 16 0.9% 17 42.8% 18 11.4% 19 44.7%

Denver is well-positioned to make the NCAA tournament. Winning a game or two would make it a near certainty, though losing in the opening round would still leave the Pioneers with a better than 50% chance of advancing.

Denver’s possible final PWR

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2	Win 3
1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.5%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	22.4%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.8%
6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	25.4%
7	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	9.8%
8	0.0%	0.0%	5.1%	1.1%
9	0.0%	0.2%	19.5%	0.0%
10	1.3%	7.3%	39.0%	0.0%
11	12.1%	28.1%	30.2%	0.0%
12	37.3%	41.5%	5.2%	0.0%
13	36.0%	19.2%	0.1%	0.0%
14	13.4%	3.8%	0.0%	0.0%

Because Denver has some potential rankings that are on the bubble, Denver does have an interest in a limited number of conferences being won by teams that won’t be in the top 16. Lists of those are available in previous articles, such as A detailed look at NMU’s chances.

Case-by-case possibilities for Denver’s PWR

Because Denver still have games to play, those are the biggest determinants of Denver’s final ranking.

If Denver makes it to the championship game vs. Minnesota or St. Cloud, the Pioneers will finish at worst #12, good enough to make the NCAA tournament (since the WCHA will be won by a team in the top 16).

Denver PWR if advances to championship game vs. Minnesota or St. Cloud

PWR	Lose Championship	Win Championship
3	0.00%	7.50%
4	0.00%	20.04%
5	0.00%	31.32%
6	0.07%	27.87%
7	1.28%	11.75%
8	6.47%	1.49%
9	23.29%	0.03%
10	41.14%	0.00%
11	24.77%	0.00%
12	2.99%	0.00%

However, if Denver makes it to the championship game vs. UND, the Pioneers could finish #13 if they lose. Again, the WCHA would be won by a team in the top 16, so the only way #13 would miss is if all the other conferences were won by teams outside the top 16. Though possible, that’s a very unlikely scenario — in outcomes in which the Pioneers face UND in the championship game and lose, about .3% of them leave Denver out of the NCAA tournament.

Denver PWR if advances to championship game vs. UND

PWR	Lose Championship	Win Championship
3	0	5717
4	0	10894
5	0	12259
6	0	6597
7	17	1397
8	295	0
9	2980	0
10	11967	0
11	17097	0
12	4378	0
13	130	0

If Denver wins its opening game but then loses to Duluth, #12-#14 are distinctly possible. In that scenario, Denver would care most about tournaments being won by teams in the top 16 so #12 and #13 make the tournament. Paradoxically, in terms of final PWR ranking, Denver would be most helped in this situation by St. Cloud St knocking off UND (though there then would be the accompanying risk of SCSU taking the WCHA championship and a slot). Denver is currently holding onto the UND comparison by an RPI thread.

Denver PWR if loses to Minnesota-Duluth

PWR	Likelihood
9	0.2%
10	7.3%
11	28.1%
12	41.5%
13	19.2%
14	3.8%

Finally, if Denver loses the opening round, the Pioneers are most likely to finish #12-#14 (as can be seen in the table at the top of this article). In those situations, Denver would again mostly he hoping teams in the top 16 win all the conferences.

There are, otherwise, a lot of combinations that land Denver in the 9-12 range instead of 13-14. Most reliable is Miami defeating Western Michigan and Harvard defeating Cornell.

Denver PWR if loses to Mich. Tech, Miami defeats W. Michigan, and Harvard defeats Cornell

PWR	Likelihood
10	2.3%
11	23.3%
12	63.3%
13	11.0%

My apologies for any omissions, this one was a bit rushed to get it out before the games begin!

After a three-game losing skid at the hands of North Dakota and Minnesota, the St. Cloud State Huskies have found their stride, going 7-2-1 in their last ten games. During that stretch, SCSU grabbed three points against Duluth in a weekend series and swept Wisconsin on the road before securing a home playoff sweep of Nebraska–Omaha to advance to the WCHA Final Five.

North Dakota has been on fire for almost four months. After suffering a 1-0 defeat at the hands of homestanding Bemidji State, UND has gone 18-5-2 to propel itself back into the national playoff picture. Dave Hakstol’s squad has done all this despite being decimated by injuries. The Green and White have regularly skated only eleven forwards, with half of that group consisting of walk-on players and converted defensemen.

These two teams skated to two splits in the WCHA regular season, with each claiming a share of the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup. Playoff results do not count in the race for the Challenge Cup, but bragging rights and a date with Minnesota in the WCHA semifinals are both on the line Thursday night.

When the 16-team NCAA tournament field is announced on Sunday, expect North Dakota’s name to be called regardless of the results this weekend. St. Cloud State, on the other hand, would need to win the Final Five Championship in order to secure a bid to the national tournament.

UND has won the past two WCHA Final Five championships, defeating St. Cloud State in 2010 and downing Denver in 2011. SCSU’s lone WCHA playoff title came in 2001, when the Huskies defeated North Dakota in overtime.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: (Bob Motzko, 7th season at SCSU, 137-108-34, .552)
Pairwise Ranking: 19th
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 17-16-5 overall, 12-12-4 WCHA (6th)
Last Season: 15-18-5 overall, 11-13 4 WCHA (9th)

Team Offense: 3.13 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.63 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.5% (31 of 138)
Penalty Kill: 77.9% (106 of 136)

Key Players: Senior F Jared Festler (15-19-34), Junior F Ben Hanowski (22-20-42), Senior F Travis Novak (12-13-25), Freshman D Andrew Prochno (5-23-28), Sophomore D Nick Jensen (6-26-32), Junior G Mike Lee (8-5-2, 2.24 GAA, .930 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 209-105-30, .651)
Pairwise Ranking: t-11th
National Rankings: #12/#12
This Season: 22-12-3 overall, 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.14 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.65 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.4% (36 of 168)
Penalty Kill: 81.5% (123 of 151)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (17-23-40) Junior F Corban Knight (13-22-35), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (23-17-40), Freshman D Nick Mattson (6-12-18), Senior D Ben Blood (3-15-18), Senior G Brad Eidsness (8-3-1, 2.17 GAA, .920 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 21, 2012 (St. Cloud, MN). One night after the Huskies secured a 3-1 home victory over North Dakota, the Fighting Sioux won a tight 3-2 contest to claim a road split and a share of the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup. UND survived a review of a Ben Hanowski non-goal with under 35 seconds remaining to hold on for the win.

Last Meeting at the WCHA Final Five: March 20, 2010 (St. Paul, MN), UND spotted St. Cloud State a 2-0 lead less than a minute into the hockey game but outscored the Huskies 5-1 the rest of the way en route to a 5-3 victory and the Broadmoor Trophy. North Dakota won three games in three nights to secure the title, becoming just the second team to ever accomplish the feat (Duluth, 2009).

Most Important Meeting: March 17, 2001 (St. Paul, MN). In the game that started the rivalry, St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 58-31-11 (.635), with a 9-2 (.818) edge in postseason play.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 7-2-1 in the last ten meetings between the schools.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota forward Corban Knight has 14 points in 13 career games against St. Cloud State. UND is appearing in their tenth consecutive WCHA Final Five and are attempting to become the first team in league history to win three consecutive playoff championships. St. Cloud State goaltender Mike Lee stopped 59 of 60 shots he faced last weekend against UNO.Patrick McGovern’s Pub will host all UND pre-game events, beginning two hours prior to any game that UND is playing this weekend.

The Prediction

The Fighting Sioux will be attempting to end another team’s season for the second consecutive weekend. St. Cloud State and UND have had some epic battles in the Final Five, and this one will be no different. The two teams will be tied late, but North Dakota’s top-end talent will make the difference. UND 4, SCSU 3.

Bonus Prediction:

In the earlier Thursday semifinal, Michigan Tech will have the crowd behind them and will jump to an early lead before falling late to the Pioneers of Denver. The four Denver fans in attendance will be quite pleased. DU 4, MTU 2.

Assuming all game outcomes are equally likely, Northern Michigan stands something like a 15% chance of making that tournament.

From my previous PWR possibilities article, Northern Michigan’s overall possible final PWR rankings:

Possible PWR outcomes for NMU

PWR	Number of scenarios	Percent of scenarios
13	15297	1.3%
14	120251	10.2%
15	388264	32.9%
16	610668	51.8%
17	45168	3.8%

Because 13-16 are all on the bubble, it’s most important for Northern Michigan that a limited number of conferences are won by teams that won’t be in the top 16.

Again, those are:

WCHA (2/6)
Michigan Tech
St. Cloud St

Hockey East (1/4)
Providence

ECAC (2/4)
Harvard
Colgate

CCHA (1/4)
Bowling Green

Atlantic Hockey (4/4)
RIT
Niagara
Mercyhurst
Air Force

So, while every conference could conceivably be won by a team not in the top 16, only Atlantic Hockey is guaranteed to be so. So, the last at-large team will be somewhere between PWR 11 and 15. If 3 conferences are won by non-top 16, #13 in the PWR will be in. If 2 conferences are won by non-top 16, #14 PWR will be in. If only AHA is won by a non-top 16, #15 PWR will be in.

Odds of NMU advancing, based on final PWR rank

PWR	Odds of NMU having rank	Odds of rank advancing	Odds of rank or better advancing	Odds of NMU advancing via this scenario
15	32.90%	18.75%	18.8%	6.169%
14	10.20%	40.63%	59.4%	6.056%
13	1.30%	30.21%	89.6%	1.165%
12		9.4%	99.0%
11		1.0%	100.0%
Total odds of NMU advancing				13.39%

Note that the odds of each rank advancing assume that each team has an equal shot at winning each game; in other words, they’re actually the share of outcomes in which each rank advances. That table also naively assumes the outcomes that determine NMU’s final PWR are completely independent from the outcomes that determine which PWR ranks advance. That is, of course, not true. But, because none of the scenarios (described below) require unranked teams to advance, it’s a fine rough estimate.

What influences NMU’s final PWR

Because NMU doesn’t have any games remaining, the Wildcats are the mercy of others.

Looking at NMU’s PWR Details, there are two very obvious comparisons that NMU is currently losing but could take (because the comparison is close enough and the other team is still playing):

• Cornell
• Western Michigan

It’s also apparently helpful for RIT to defeat Air Force. It’s not immediately obviously why this is the case (both are TUCs over whom NMU is winning the comparison, but so are all the other teams NMU is trying to gain on), but the models say NMU finishes noticeably higher in those scenarios.

A deeper dive into the scenarios

Miami defeating Western Michigan is huge for NMU. Note that it would eliminate a huge number of the #16-17 scenarios, while preserving all of the #13 scenarios and most of the #14 scenarios.

PWR outcomes for NMU if Miami defeats Western Michigan

PWR	Number of scenarios	Percent of scenarios
13	15297	2.6%
14	102442	17.4%
15	246385	41.8%
16	200993	34.1%
17	24707	4.2%

Western Michigan losing a second game is also pretty helpful. It drops a big majority of the #16-#17 outcomes and about half of the #15. This isn’t completely necessary, in that about 1/3 of the #13 outcomes and about 40% of the #14 outcomes exist outside this scenario, but this is a very attractive scenario for NMU.

PWR outcomes for NMU if Western Michigan also loses the consolation game

	To Michigan			To Bowling Green
PWR	Number of scenarios	Percent of scenarios		Number of scenarios	Percent of scenarios
13	4992	5.1%		4992	5.1%
14	30630	31.2%		30685	31.2%
15	61242	62.3%		61153	62.2%
16	1440	1.5%		1474	1.5%

Harvard defeating Cornell looks useful for NMU. It eliminates a lot of the 15-17 scenarios while leaving most of the 13-14 scenarios in tact.

PWR outcomes for NMU if Harvard defeats Cornell

PWR	Number of scenarios	Percent of scenarios
13	15297	2.6%
14	75380	12.8%
15	221000	37.5%
16	257768	43.7%
17	20379	3.5%

However, what’s not obvious from that table is that almost all the good scenarios come about when Cornell loses a 2nd game and almost all the bad scenarios come about when Cornell wins the 2nd game (after losing the 1st).

PWR outcomes for NMU if Cornell also loses the consolation game

	To Union			To Colgate
PWR	Number of scenarios	Percent of scenarios		Number of scenarios	Percent of scenarios
13	12993	13.2%		2304	2.3%
14	30915	31.4%		29014	29.5%
15	48434	49.3%		66923	68.1%
16	5959	6.1%		63	0.1%
17	3	0.0%

Note that I haven’t said anything about the RIT/Air Force outcome mentioned above. While it does indeed shift NMU’s chances of a 13-14 up quite a bit, about 2/3 of the #13 scenarios and 3/4 of the #14 scenarios exist outside of this outcome.

PWR outcomes for NMU if RIT defeats Niagara, Air Force defeats Mercyhurst, and RIT defeats Air Force

PWR	Number of scenarios	Percent of scenarios
13	4942	3.4%
14	30972	21.0%
15	54783	37.2%
16	53420	36.2%
17	3339	2.3%

So, Air Force defeating RIT is a nice outcome for NMU, but by no means necessary.

Too long, didn’t read

Bottom line? NMU’s best shot is for Cornell to lose twice and Western Michigan to lose at least once (though twice is a little better). That scenario includes all of the #13 possibilities, about 1/3 of the #14 possibilities, about 1/5 of the #15 possibilities, and a miniscule chance of being #16.