Author: Jim Dahl

Toews-mania hits ‘Peg — Winnipeg Sun

Winnipeg may not have won the Stanley Cup, but it sure seemed like it on Sunday.

Thousands of fans lined the streets of St. Vital as a parade featuring hometown hero Jonathan Toews and hockey’s holy grail wound its way to the Dakota Community Club.

Make that the Jonathan Toews Community Centre, as the facility where Toews cut his hockey teeth as a youngster has been officially renamed, much to the surprise of the star of the show.

Toews Captain Humble — Winnipeg Sun

“It’s easy to take the credit when you’re on a winning team. You’ve really got to realize it was more just taking advantage of an opportunity than anything else. You work hard to get those opportunities. That’s all I attribute it to: I worked hard and got lucky. Things went my way.”

Slideshow of Toews’ visit to Winnipeg — Winnipeg Sun

All eyes on Toews as he brings Lord Stanley home – NHL.com

He always wondered what bringing the Stanley Cup home to Winnipeg would be like, but never in those daydreams did Jonathan Toews picture an estimated 15,000 people would greet him as a hero and the city would rename his own community center in his honor.

Hometown honours a winner – Winnipeg Free Press

“We were trying to think of something unique and enduring” to honour Toews, Selinger said. “It’s rare,” he said of the naming. “We do it for people who make an outstanding contribution in their field.”

“I never imagined something like this would happen — a lake named after me in my home province,” said Toews, an avid fisher. He joked that he’ll build a road so people can visit his lake.

Winnipeg gives Toews warm welcome home – Chicago Tribune

Ace Burpee, the local radio personality who emceed the ceremonies, added he thought Toews outdrew the Queen, referring to Queen Elizabeth II’s July 3 visit to Winnipeg.

“Of course, she didn’t bring a Stanley Cup with her,” Burpee said.

Toews friendship inspires greatness – TSN.ca

But nowhere is Toews bigger than in a home two doors down from where he grew up, and where his parents still live.

That’s the home of Cam MacDonald, owner of six Toews jerseys, going as far back as the University of North Dakota, where Toews starred for the Fighting Sioux.

“He’s been my hero for a long time,” MacDonald was saying Sunday.

MacDonald, 18, was born with cerebral palsy, an affliction that’s had him down, but not out.

Recorded press conference:

One of my favorite parts about SiouxSports.com NCAA Hockey Bracket Challenge (did anyone else notice how EVERYONE is trying to do their own this year? Imitation and flattery and all that…) is seeing what Sioux fans pick. It’s an interesting barometer of their optimism and outlook on various teams and conferences.

The aggregate picks are available, and I’ve also compared them to the previously posted KRACH predictions.

Some takeaways:

• 99.4% of Sioux fans pick UND to beat Yale, a figure 26% higher than KRACH. Lest one conclude that all Sioux fans are always homers, only 65% picked UND to beat UNH last year, despite KRACH calling it a draw.
• The biggest difference between Sioux fans’ picks and KRACH isn’t the UND game, it’s BC over Alaska. 92.5% of Sioux fans pick BC, while KRACH predicts the game 62%-38% in favor of BC. This is the largest spread between Sioux fans picks and KRACH probabilities in the last three years.
• Other than their love (fear?) of BC, Sioux fans have no respect for Hockey East. 73% picked Cornell to beat UNH, despite Cornell being 47%-53% underdogs in KRACH; 98% picked Wisconsin to beat Vermont, despite Wisconsin only being 70%-30% favorites in KRACH.

This may help you in your Bracket Challenge entry…

Here’s how KRACH predicts the NCAA tournament:

KRACH predicts NCAA 2010 Hockey Tournament

A few observations:

• The Northeast is, as speculated, the bracket of death
• UND is the only #2 seed picked as most likely to emerge from its bracket
• RIT over Denver (9%) edges out Alabama Huntsville over Miami (10%) as least likely upset.

Of course, there’s a reason they still play the games. The least likely upset last year? Bemidji St over Notre Dame at 10%. Bemidji St won 5-1, then went on to beat Cornell to visit the Frozen Four.

Assuming Michigan and Maine hold on for their respective wins (UND’s win is in the books), I think the remaining possibilities will be:

Denver 1-2
Miami 1-2
UW 3-5
UND 3-6
SCSU 4-6
Boston College 3-6
UMD 14-19
Northern Michigan 8-11
Ferris State 8-15
CC 20-24
New Hampshire 10-14
UMN 24-25
Bemidji State 7-8
Alaska 11-16
Vermont 13-17
Michigan 12-20
Michigan State 16-20
Nebraska-Omaha 20-22
Cornell 7-12
Maine 12-19
Boston University 20-23
Mass.-Lowell 20-25
Yale 8-11
Massachusetts 17-20 or N/TUC
Union 15-20 or 23-24
RIT 25-N/TUC

Duluth losing had the biggest impact on… Duluth.

However, contrary to popular wisdom, I still see Duluth as possibly getting in. I’m getting a 1/220 chance of UMD finishing #12 and a 1/25 chance of UMD finishing #13 or higher.

Here’s the rub, and why no one else agrees with me — I can’t duplicate it on either the USCHO or CHN calculators right now. I have a theory that involves both of those sites having broken calculators and sufficient hubris that I’m willing to make this post, but it’s certainly still possible the error is on my end, so don’t get too excited about this until that problem has been resolved.
Denver 1-2
Miami 1-3
UW 2-5
UND 3-6
SCSU 4-10
Boston College 3-9
UMD 12-19
Northern Michigan 6-19
Ferris State 5-17
CC 18-25
New Hampshire 10-18
UMN 20-25
Bemidji State 5-10
Alaska 10-17
Vermont 6-19
Michigan 10-25
Michigan State 13-21
Nebraska-Omaha 18-24
Cornell 5-19
Maine 12-24
Boston University 13-24
Mass.-Lowell 18-25
Yale 7-12
Northeastern 25-N/TUC
Massachusetts 16-20 or N/TUC
Union 12-N/TUC
St. Lawrence 24-N/TUC
RIT 21-N/TUC

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10:00ET Update… CHN seems to have made a fix to their calculator as of about 10am ET. Here’s what I think USCHO and CHN were both doing wrong: I think they were adding whatever results you selected on the form to their records of season results to date. However, even after recording the UND/UMD result they left the UND/UMD game on the form, so when you chose UND as the winner of the UND/UMD game, that game was getting double counted. That exaggerated the harm to UMD and made it seem like the Bulldogs couldn’t advance.

CHN You are the Committee

It’s still pretty unlikely, but here’s a scenario under which the CHN calculator now shows the Bulldogs advance:

* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Vermont defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Championship game: Vermont defeats Maine.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: St. Lawrence defeats Union.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Brown defeats Cornell.
* ECAC Championship game: Brown defeats St. Lawrence.
* ECAC Consolation game: Union defeats Cornell.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Canisius.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats RIT.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Northern Michigan defeats Ferris State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Northern Michigan defeats Miami.
* CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Ferris State.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Denver.
* WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Consolation game: Denver defeats Wisconsin.

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1:35pm update USCHO is now also fixed

USCHO Pairwise Predictor

UND’s possible PWR outcomes are pretty predictable at this point, but that doesn’t mean there’s no excitement. Quite a few more teams than intuition might suggest are capable of falling out of the tournament field.

Here are the possible final PWR ranges for each team that’s still a possible TUC. There could be some extreme outlying possibility that I’m not catching, but these already show a lot more possible movement than I’ve seen speculated elsewhere…

Denver	1-3
Miami	1-3
UW	1-5
UND	3-6
SCSU	4-11
Boston College	3-9
UMD	5-19
Northern Michigan	6-19
Ferris State	5-18
CC	18-25
New Hampshire	10-18
UMN	20-25
Bemidji State	5-11
Alaska	10-18
Vermont	6-19
Michigan	10-25
Michigan State	12-21
Nebraska-Omaha	18-24
Cornell	5-19
Maine	11-25
Boston University	12-25
Mass.-Lowell	18-25
Ohio State	24-N/TUC
Yale	7-13
Northeastern	25-N/TUC
Massachusetts	16-20 or N/TUC
Union	11-N/TUC
St. Lawrence	23-N/TUC
RIT	20-N/TUC

If you want a probability distribution chart for one of these or having trouble working out the scenario, just let me know and I can help out.

Resources

• PWR Forum thread – already contains lots of discussion about exactly what needs to happen for UND to achieve each ranking
• You Are the Committee – Run your own PWR scenarios

Look back

I should have done this last week, but the end of the season is a good time to look back at the first end of season prediction. With 8 games remaining, I predicted the following:

UND went on to win 7 of its last 8 and landed at #5 in the PWR.

As for last week’s forecast, landing at 5 or 6 were the most likely outcomes for winning the series in 3.

Look forward

This one is a little boring. Unlike last season when the forecast surprisingly revealed that UND could land anywhere from #3 to #13, this year the possibilities are exactly what a human using the You Are The Committee tool would deduce: UND can land anywhere from #3 to #6. Winning it all is required to climb to #3 and would ensure a finish no lower than #5, otherwise #4 to #6 is possible.

The only interesting, though not surprising, thing to note is that UND is likely to finish slightly higher if they lose the play-in than if they win the play-in but go on to lose two. Of course, at this point in the season the absolute ranking is a lot less important than the bracket implications, for which you have to check out some other resources…

Other resources

• PWR Forum thread – already contains lots of discussion about exactly what needs to happen for UND to achieve each ranking
• You Are the Committee – Run your own PWR scenarios

This one’s a little different because each team could play 2 or 3 games.

Due to limitations of the simulator, I assume that every series other than UND/Minnesota will finish in two games. So, the extremes of these predictions are about right, but the frequency distributions in the middle could be a little off.

Without further ado…


Overall Analysis

• If UND sweeps, the Sioux could finish the weekend #3 (2% chance).
• Even if UND were to get swept, the Sioux would be positioned for a pretty much guaranteed NCAA tournament berth if the season ended this weekend (>99% chance of being 11th or higher)
• Leaving this weekend a #1 seed is: 45% chance if the Sioux sweep, a 7% chance if the Sioux win in 3

Crazy Stuff

• If swept, the Sioux could still leave the weekend with a 1 seed. In one scenario out of a million, UND gets swept and finishes #4
• If swept, the Sioux have an equal chance (one scenario out of a million) to leave the weekend #13 and in peril of missing the NCAA tournament

Of course, whether UND advances or not, there will be more games played after this weekend that will continue to move PWR a bit.

That’s all for this post, but there’s always more PWR discussion in the PWR thread.