Author: Jim Dahl

UND’s PWR ranking outlook

#17 North Dakota fell a couple spots with a split last weekend (the fall was consistent with my prediction for what would happen in a split), and continues to face more downside than upside.

A split this weekend would most likely drop UND a couple more spots, while getting swept could cause UND to plummet into the mid-20s. A sweep would do a little better than making up the ground lost last weekend, likely landing UND in the 13-15 range.

UNDoneweek

PWR calculation details

Readers of this blog probably already know that the RPI and PWR formulas for hockey changed this year. As I mentioned in a previous column—Dueling PWRs—there are currently two different interpretations of the new formulas. USCHO and CollegeHockeyNews implement the home/away weightings for RPI a bit differently.

After this post, unless otherwise stated this blog uses the CHN implementation. UND fares slightly better under the CHN implementation.

UND PWR forecast using the CHN PWR implementation

UNDendofseason

UND PWR forecast using the USCHO PWR implementation

UNDendofseasonUSCHO

I will continue to monitor both and highlight any significant differences in future posts.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

UND PWR outlook with 10 games to go

This week I’ll take another look at UND’s chances at making the NCAA tournament at large. I do that by forecasting UND’s PWR ranking, which mimics the NCAA tournament selection process.

However, be warned that some dispute has arisen in the college hockey online media world over the proper implementation of the NCAA’s 2014 revisions to the tournament selection process (see Uncertainty around PWR calculation). These forecasts currently assume the USCHO PWR formula.

The end of season outlook

Two weeks ago I predicted UND needed to win 8 of its remaining 12 to be in a comfortable position for an at large bid going into the conference tournaments. UND has split its only two games since then, and the prediction remains stable — UND now needs to win about 7 of its remaining 10.

undendofseason

Of course, if UND falls just a bit short, there’s an opportunity to make up some ground in the conference tournament.

The coming weekend

Though #15 UND experienced the predicted upside potential over the last couple weeks, they now face quite a bit more downside. Though a sweep would most likely result in a climb of a couple PWR spots, anything less would most likely result in a fall. Getting swept would likely even push UND back into the 20s (and with a tough outlook for the remaining season, as mentioned above).

undoneweek

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

UND’s PWR rankings — a look ahead

Last week I gave a quick preview of UND’s PWR chances for the weekend. After a tie and a win, UND landed about where expected at #19. However, UND still has good upside potential.

UND’s one week outlook

A sweep should move UND solidly into “at large” position, while a split would leave UND about where it is (with a slight improvement a bit more likely than a slight fall).

UND’s regular season outlook

The bigger picture, though, is after UND’s phenomenal lossless streak, what do they need to do to finish in charge of their own destiny?

Winning 8 of its remaining 12 would put UND in a decent position to make the playoffs at large, while only winning 6 would likely leave UND in need of some conference tournament success.

More PWR analysis (non-UND teams)

I’m pleased to announce a new web site, College Hockey Ranked, to which I’ll (slowly) be migrating the non-UND hockey ranking information. This will allow SiouxSports to refocus more tightly on being a destination for UND fans, while CollegeHockeyRanked will try to appeal to a more general college hockey audience. UND fans who just want to read about UND won’t have to sift through as much information about other teams (except as it pertains to UND), non-UND fans who want more general analysis won’t have to skip over UND-centric analysis if they just visit that site, and of course anyone interested in both can simply follow both sites.

The immediate impact of this shift is that I’ll start posting my non-UND analysis to articles on that site. At least for this season, though, I’ll probably link between the two a lot.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

Resources

First look at UND’s Pairwise chances

I’ll go into some more depth in future weeks, but here’s a sneak preview of PairWise Ranking prognostication for the season–

This would have been a lot more interesting a month ago when UND seemed at serious risk of a lost season and I could have said something like, “UND needs to win the next 7 just to climb up to 20th”. Here we are at #19 with 14 regular season NCAA games remaining, and UND is definitely back in the hunt.

Here’s how this weekend’s games could affect its PWR:

The first thing that jumped out at me is how huge the spreads are — UND’s median climb for a sweep is 5 positions and fall for getting swept is 7. It appears that UND is just at a dense part of the RPI, but given that the PWR formula is new this year I’ll try to do some more digging.

KRACH predicts the NCAA tournament

Everyone’s favorite hockey ranking scheme, KRACH, can be used to predict likelihoods of game outcomes. So, without further ado, here’s what KRACH says the likelihood of each team winning each round is.

The Midwest region is most balanced, but the brutal schedules actually make it less likely (22.7%) that the champ will emerge from that region than the lopsided East (28%).

The most lopsided is the East, with QU favored by KRACH to have an 84% chance of beating Canisius. What a difference seeding makes — QU is given an 18.7% chance of winning it all vs. Minnesota’s 14.9%, despite Minnesota just eking out the KRACH edge over Quinnipiac.

Both #2 New Hampshire and #2 Miami are actually underdogs to their WCHA 3-seed foes, Denver and MSU-Mankato, respectively.

KRACH West Game 1 Game 2 (Region Champ) Game 3 (Frozen four semifinal) Game 4 (National Champ)
157.487 1. Minnesota 65.64% 42.99% 25.75% 14.86%
82.4324 4. Yale 34.36% 17.21% 7.56% 3.17%
100 2. North Dakota 63.02% 27.94% 13.61% 6.34%
58.6682 3. Niagara 36.98% 11.87% 4.25% 1.45%
Northeast
127.142 1. Mass.-Lowell 56.72% 32.35% 17.27% 9.07%
97.0033 4. Wisconsin 43.28% 21.77% 10.20% 4.68%
92.3517 2. New Hampshire 48.24% 21.69% 9.90% 4.42%
99.1066 3. Denver 51.76% 24.18% 11.45% 5.31%
East
157.423 1. Quinnipiac 83.83% 53.06% 31.97% 18.67%
30.3748 4. Canisius 16.17% 4.05% 0.92% 0.20%
100.909 2. Boston College 55.73% 25.17% 12.41% 5.90%
80.1731 3. Union 44.27% 17.72% 7.72% 3.24%
Midwest
111.145 1. Notre Dame 55.05% 28.24% 13.73% 6.85%
90.736 4. St. Cloud St 44.95% 20.78% 9.09% 4.09%
105.133 2. Miami (OH) 49.82% 25.35% 11.99% 5.82%
105.899 3. Minnesota St 50.18% 25.63% 12.16% 5.93%

A look back at 2013 forecasts

I sometimes include a look at the previous week’s forecasts in my weekly posts, but I don’t think I’ve ever done a formal review of the forecasts at the end of the year before. Given the volatility of PWR, it sometimes seems kind of hard to believe that we can predict tight curves for where teams are likely to end up 10-12 games out, so a review of my success definitely seems in order.

Also, with the conference tournament results in, I’ll take a look at the nagging question of weighted vs unweighted forecasts for the conference tournaments.

A look back the big predictions

On January 15 in A first look at the NCAA hockey Pairwise Rankings I included this chart:

UND went 6-4-4 and emerged #7 in the PWR on March 4 (see Ranking trend charts). That outcome is right on the high end of the thick part of the curve for “Win 8”, which is the closest equivalent to win 6 and tie 4, so the forecast was pretty much spot on.

On the same day, I posted this chart of Minnesota:

The Gophers went 8-4-2 and were #2 in the PWR since mid-January. That’s just on the high side for “Win 10”. The forecast would have led readers to expect a ranking more in the range of 4-5 (between the Win 8 and Win 10 curves) for that performance.

On February 21, I posted this update for Minnesota:

By then it was more clear that Minnesota was sewing up the #2 spot. Indeed, Minnesota went 4-1-1 and finished #2.

Also on February 21, I posted this chart of Boston University:

They went 4-3 and were #16 in the PWR on March 11.

I also noted that Providence had some upside potential but needed to win.

Providence went 4-0-2 and finished #21 on March 11.

On weighted vs. unweighted conference tournament projections

There were some good questions asked about why I post the raw remaining possibilities for conference tournaments instead of weighted probabilities.

I responded that the real reason I do it is because the possibilities are factual, while the probabilities are sort of subjective. But, I also noted that: 1) it doesn’t matter much (conference tournament pairings tend to be of similar strength teams), and 2) KRACH didn’t really reflect the “hot” teams that tend to outperform in the conference tournaments.

After seeing QU lay an egg, CC go on a tear, and Michigan continue its hot streak, I thought it would be fun to run these numbers.

Team 1 Team 2 Team 1 KRACH Team 2 KRACH Predicted Winner Predicted Win
Percentage		 Actual Winner Prediction correct?
Niagara Canisius 60.0463 25.3254 Niagara 70% Canisius
Mercyhurst Connectictut 28.7672 34.8 Connectictut 55% Mercyhurst
Canisius Mercyhurst 25.3254 28.7672 Mercyhurst 53% Canisius
Miami Michigan 106.036 47.7859 Miami 69% Michigan
Ohio State Notre Dame 54.5277 97.1286 Notre Dame 64% Notre Dame Yes
Michigan Notre Dame 47.7859 97.1286 Notre Dame 67% Notre Dame Yes
Quinnipiac Brown 158.707 53.8762 Quinnipiac 75% Brown
Union Yale 68.2106 87.5804 Yale 56% Union
Brown Union 53.8762 68.2106 Union 56% Union Yes
Quinnipiac Yale 158.707 87.5804 Quinnipiac 64% Quinnipiac Yes
Mass.-Lowell Providence 109.609 74.2102 Mass.-Lowell 60% Mass.-Lowell Yes
Boston University Boston College 70.2589 103.267 Boston College 60% Boston University
Mass.-Lowell Boston University 109.609 70.2589 Mass.-Lowell 61% Mass.-Lowell Yes
St. Cloud State Wisconsin 90.3013 78.0123 St. Cloud State 54% Wisconsin
Colorado College Minnesota 58.256 162.307 Minnesota 74% Colorado College
Wisconsin Colorado College 78.0123 58.256 Wisconsin 57% Wisconsin Yes
North Dakota Colorado College 100 58.256 North Dakota 63% Colorado College
Minnesota State Wisconsin 106.123 78.0123 Minnesota State 58% Wisconsin

KRACH predicted 7 of 18 games correctly. Given the small sample, I’m happy to call that a coin flip. Somewhat amusingly, it missed on the four largest.

Conclusions

The forecasts seem grounded in reality and really do seem to provide pretty useful information.

Despite my note above about KRACH and tournaments, I’ll still probably post my annual “KRACH predicts the NCAAs”, and that will be it for this season. I’ve got lots of great ideas for next year, so hopefully I’ll find the time to get some of them implemented, and I’ll see you then!

Mid-Saturday night update

With Saturday’s first three games decided (Notre Dame over Ohio State, Quinnipiac over Yale, and Michigan over Miami), the NCAA tournament field is shaping up.

Changes: Notre Dame a lock, Mankato a lock, Niagara a lock, Western Michigan out, Ohio State out

Locks (11): Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, Notre Dame, Mass.-Lowell, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Mankato, Niagara, Denver

Winner guaranteed a slot (but needs to win) (6 teams 3 slots): Union or Brown, Wisconsin or Colorado College, Canisius or Mercyhurst

In if they win (2): Boston University, Michigan

At large possible (2): Yale, St Cloud

Update- The only remaining uncertainty seems to be that St. Cloud and Yale are in line (in that order) for BU and Michigan’s spots. If either lose, St. Cloud gets a spot. If both lose, Yale does too.

As always, the above is my personal transcription and interpretation of the below computer generated results. So, if you see anything inconsistent between the two, or wrong with either, let me know.

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall By number of wins
Quinnipiac #1 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
UMN #2 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Miami #3 12.5%
#4 50.0%
#5 37.5%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Boston College #5 62.5%
#6 37.5%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Yale #13 37.5%
#14 37.5%
#15 25.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%		 n/a
Mass.-Lowell #3 62.5%
#4 25.0%
#5 0.0%
#6 12.5%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#3 25.0% 100.0%
#4 50.0%  
#5    
#6 25.0%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0%
UND #6 50.0%
#7 0.0%
#8 50.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
New Hampshire #7 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Notre Dame #3 25.0%
#4 25.0%
#5 0.0%
#6 0.0%
#7 0.0%
#8 50.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#3   50.0%
#4   50.0%
#5    
#6    
#7    
#8 100.0%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0%
Mankato #9 25.0%
#10 25.0%
#11 46.9%
#12 3.1%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Niagara #10 50.0%
#11 50.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
SCSU #11 3.1%
#12 46.9%
#13 50.0%
Tournament invites: 75.0%		 n/a
Denver #9 75.0%
#10 25.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Western Michigan #14 25.0%
#15 50.0%
#16 25.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Union #12 50.0%
#13 0.0%
#14 0.0%
#15 12.5%
#16 37.5%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#12   100.0%
#13    
#14    
#15 25.0%  
#16 75.0%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
UW #13 12.5%
#14 37.5%
#15 0.0%
#16 12.5%
#17 12.5%
#18 0.0%
#19 25.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#13   25.0%
#14   75.0%
#15    
#16 25.0%  
#17 25.0%  
#18    
#19 50.0%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Providence #21 12.5%
#22 12.5%
#23 75.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Boston University #15 12.5%
#16 12.5%
#17 40.6%
#18 31.3%
#19 3.1%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#15   25.0%
#16   25.0%
#17 43.8% 37.5%
#18 50.0% 12.5%
#19 6.3%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Rensselaer #17 15.6%
#18 46.9%
#19 37.5%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Brown #20 59.4%
#21 28.1%
#22 12.5%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#20 18.8% 100.0%
#21 56.3%  
#22 25.0%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Robert Morris #16 12.5%
#17 31.3%
#18 21.9%
#19 31.3%
#20 3.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
CC #24 50.0%
#25 50.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#24   100.0%
#25 100.0%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Ohio State #29 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Michigan #25 25.0%
#26 25.0%
#27 0.0%
#28 50.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#25   50.0%
#26   50.0%
#27    
#28 100.0%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Connecticut Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
Non-TUC 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
Non-TUC 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%

Saturday morning update

Here’s how things look going into Saturday’s games…

In (8): Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, Mass-Lowell, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Denver

Can get in at large (6): Yale, Notre Dame, Mankato, Niagara, St Cloud, Western Michigan

Needs to win conference tournament (9): Union, Wisconsin, Boston University, Brown, Colorado College, Ohio State, Michigan, Canisius, Mercyhurst

As always, the above are my transcription and interpretation of the tables below. The tables are computer generated so much more likely to be correct, so if you see any discrepancies or have any question let me know.

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall By number of wins
Quinnipiac #1 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#1 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0%
UMN #2 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Miami #3 47.3%
#4 44.9%
#5 7.8%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3 28.1% 45.3% 87.5%
#4 56.3% 54.7% 12.5%
#5 15.6%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Boston College #4 24.6%
#5 67.2%
#6 8.2%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Yale #5 11.3%
#6 34.0%
#7 4.7%
#8 0.0%
#9 0.0%
#10 0.0%
#11 0.0%
#12 5.9%
#13 18.8%
#14 17.6%
#15 7.8%
Tournament invites: 69.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#5   22.7%
#6   68.0%
#7   9.4%
#8    
#9    
#10    
#11    
#12 11.7%  
#13 37.5%  
#14 35.2%  
#15 15.6%  
Tournament invites: 39.1% 100.0%
Mass.-Lowell #3 46.5%
#4 23.8%
#5 13.3%
#6 14.5%
#7 2.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#3 11.7% 81.3%
#4 28.9% 18.8%
#5 26.6%  
#6 28.9%  
#7 3.9%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0%
UND #6 43.0%
#7 43.8%
#8 7.0%
#9 6.3%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
New Hampshire #6 0.4%
#7 49.6%
#8 50.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Notre Dame #3 6.3%
#4 6.6%
#5 0.4%
#6 0.0%
#7 0.0%
#8 7.8%
#9 17.6%
#10 14.1%
#11 8.2%
#12 6.3%
#13 7.8%
#14 3.1%
#15 15.6%
#16 6.3%
Tournament invites: 72.7%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     25.0%
#4     26.6%
#5     1.6%
#6      
#7      
#8 3.1% 25.0%  
#9 18.0% 25.0% 9.4%
#10 10.9%   34.4%
#11 11.7% 6.3% 3.1%
#12 6.3% 12.5%  
#13   31.3%  
#14 6.3%    
#15 31.3%    
#16 12.5%    
Tournament invites: 50.0% 90.6% 100.0%
Mankato #8 18.0%
#9 31.6%
#10 23.0%
#11 19.1%
#12 5.1%
#13 3.1%
Tournament invites: 96.1%		 n/a
Niagara #10 28.9%
#11 35.2%
#12 24.2%
#13 10.5%
#14 1.2%
Tournament invites: 85.9%		 n/a
SCSU #10 1.6%
#11 21.5%
#12 33.2%
#13 31.3%
#14 11.3%
#15 1.2%
Tournament invites: 72.7%		 n/a
Denver #8 17.2%
#9 44.5%
#10 29.7%
#11 7.0%
#12 1.6%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Western Michigan #13 3.1%
#14 28.1%
#15 37.5%
#16 31.3%
Tournament invites: 3.1%		 n/a
Union #11 7.4%
#12 19.1%
#13 12.9%
#14 13.7%
#15 15.6%
#16 21.9%
#17 9.4%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#11   14.8%
#12   38.3%
#13   25.8%
#14 6.3% 21.1%
#15 31.3%  
#16 43.8%  
#17 18.8%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
UW #10 2.7%
#11 1.6%
#12 4.7%
#13 9.4%
#14 18.8%
#15 9.8%
#16 19.5%
#17 7.8%
#18 3.9%
#19 21.9%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#10   5.5%
#11   3.1%
#12   9.4%
#13   18.8%
#14   37.5%
#15   19.5%
#16 32.8% 6.3%
#17 15.6%  
#18 7.8%  
#19 43.8%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Providence #20 7.8%
#21 14.1%
#22 40.6%
#23 25.0%
#24 12.5%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Boston University #13 3.1%
#14 6.3%
#15 12.5%
#16 12.5%
#17 38.3%
#18 13.7%
#19 10.2%
#20 3.5%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#13   6.3%
#14   12.5%
#15   25.0%
#16   25.0%
#17 49.2% 27.3%
#18 23.4% 3.9%
#19 20.3%  
#20 7.0%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Rensselaer #16 3.1%
#17 30.5%
#18 49.2%
#19 17.2%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Brown #19 3.5%
#20 68.4%
#21 20.3%
#22 6.3%
#23 1.6%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#19   7.0%
#20 43.8% 93.0%
#21 40.6%  
#22 12.5%  
#23 3.1%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Robert Morris #16 5.5%
#17 14.1%
#18 33.2%
#19 46.9%
#20 0.4%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
CC #22 1.6%
#23 41.8%
#24 24.2%
#25 26.2%
#26 6.3%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#22   3.1%
#23 26.6% 57.0%
#24 10.2% 38.3%
#25 50.8% 1.6%
#26 12.5%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Ohio State #20 4.7%
#21 6.3%
#22 4.7%
#23 3.1%
#24 7.8%
#25 10.9%
#26 0.0%
#27 12.5%
#28 25.0%
#29 25.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#20     18.8%
#21     25.0%
#22     18.8%
#23     12.5%
#24   31.3%  
#25   18.8% 25.0%
#26      
#27   50.0%  
#28 50.0%    
#29 50.0%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Michigan #25 12.5%
#26 12.5%
#27 2.3%
#28 10.2%
#29 12.5%
#30 0.0%
#31 0.8%
Non-TUC 49.2%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#25     50.0%
#26     50.0%
#27   9.4%  
#28   40.6%  
#29   50.0%  
#30      
#31 1.6%    
Non-TUC 98.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Connecticut Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
Non-TUC 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
Non-TUC 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%

Mid-Friday night update

With 4 of tonight’s games completed (Wisconin over St Cloud, Brown over Quinnipiac, Canisius over Niagara, and Mass-Lowell over Providence), here’s an update on the NCAA tournament outlook.

Changes: Denver is in, Providence is out, Boston University needs to win its tournament, Robert Morris is out

Overall scenario as of now:

In (8): Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, Mass.-Lowell, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Denver

Can make it at large (8): Yale, Notre Dame, Mankato, Niagara, St Cloud St, Western Michigan, Union, Wisconsin

Need to win tournament (8): Boston University, Brown, Colorado College, Ohio St, Michigan, Connecticut, Canisius, Mercyhurst

As always, though the table is computer-generated, I have been known to read/transcribe it wrong, so let me know if any of the above doesn’t match up or if you have any questions!

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall By number of wins
Quinnipiac #1 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#1 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0%
UMN #2 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Miami #3 41.7%
#4 45.5%
#5 10.0%
#6 2.8%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3 21.7% 29.3% 94.0%
#4 55.4% 65.4% 6.0%
#5 17.8% 4.5%  
#6 5.1% 0.8%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Boston College #3 18.8%
#4 15.9%
#5 41.2%
#6 22.0%
#7 2.1%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     75.0%
#4 19.2%   25.0%
#5 50.1% 64.6%  
#6 27.9% 32.3%  
#7 2.7% 3.1%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Yale #3 1.4%
#4 15.7%
#5 21.8%
#6 26.8%
#7 12.2%
#8 3.6%
#9 1.8%
#10 0.0%
#11 1.2%
#12 4.4%
#13 5.7%
#14 3.9%
#15 1.5%
Tournament invites: 96.1%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     5.4%
#4   4.0% 56.2%
#5 6.9% 23.7% 38.4%
#6 6.6% 59.1%  
#7 28.3% 6.6%  
#8 3.7% 5.8%  
#9 4.4% 0.9%  
#10      
#11 3.6%    
#12 13.3%    
#13 17.0%    
#14 11.6%    
#15 4.5%    
Tournament invites: 88.2% 100.0% 100.0%
Mass.-Lowell #3 35.1%
#4 14.6%
#5 24.2%
#6 20.9%
#7 3.8%
#8 1.2%
#9 0.3%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#3 1.6% 68.6%
#4 10.9% 18.3%
#5 35.2% 13.1%
#6 41.8%  
#7 7.5%  
#8 2.4%  
#9 0.6%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0%
UND #5 0.7%
#6 27.0%
#7 60.9%
#8 3.1%
#9 8.2%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
New Hampshire #6 0.5%
#7 20.7%
#8 77.1%
#9 1.7%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Notre Dame #3 3.1%
#4 8.3%
#5 2.1%
#6 0.0%
#7 0.3%
#8 2.7%
#9 19.8%
#10 16.5%
#11 9.6%
#12 2.9%
#13 6.4%
#14 4.7%
#15 13.9%
#16 9.5%
#17 0.3%
Tournament invites: 77.2%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     12.6%
#4     33.1%
#5     8.5%
#6      
#7   1.0%  
#8 0.5% 9.8%  
#9 17.0% 39.2% 6.1%
#10 22.5%   21.1%
#11 7.5% 5.0% 18.4%
#12 2.5% 6.3% 0.3%
#13 0.2% 25.4%  
#14 3.0% 12.6%  
#15 27.4% 0.8%  
#16 19.1%    
#17 0.5%    
Tournament invites: 55.4% 98.2% 100.0%
Mankato #8 9.7%
#9 46.8%
#10 24.7%
#11 11.8%
#12 4.5%
#13 2.6%
Tournament invites: 98.5%		 n/a
Niagara #9 0.0%
#10 6.0%
#11 25.6%
#12 44.4%
#13 21.9%
#14 2.1%
Tournament invites: 91.3%		 n/a
SCSU #10 2.1%
#11 16.7%
#12 26.1%
#13 37.7%
#14 14.7%
#15 2.9%
Tournament invites: 78.3%		 n/a
Denver #8 2.5%
#9 21.4%
#10 48.8%
#11 25.4%
#12 2.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Western Michigan #13 8.3%
#14 42.9%
#15 36.7%
#16 12.1%
Tournament invites: 27.7%		 n/a
Union #10 0.0%
#11 3.2%
#12 9.0%
#13 10.0%
#14 10.7%
#15 21.5%
#16 23.7%
#17 9.4%
#18 5.6%
#19 4.6%
#20 2.2%
Tournament invites: 29.4%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#10     0.1%
#11     13.0%
#12     35.9%
#13   1.1% 38.0%
#14 4.7% 14.1% 13.1%
#15 14.1% 40.4%  
#16 27.4% 35.1%  
#17 16.6% 9.3%  
#18 16.9%    
#19 13.7%    
#20 6.6%    
Tournament invites: 4.1% 7.3% 100.0%
UW #10 2.0%
#11 6.7%
#12 6.7%
#13 6.7%
#14 18.0%
#15 11.7%
#16 25.6%
#17 14.9%
#18 3.7%
#19 3.8%
#20 0.1%
Tournament invites: 50.8%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#10   3.9%
#11   13.4%
#12   13.4%
#13   13.4%
#14 1.8% 34.2%
#15 6.7% 16.7%
#16 46.3% 4.9%
#17 29.9%  
#18 7.5%  
#19 7.6%  
#20 0.1%  
Tournament invites: 1.7% 100.0%
Providence #18 2.3%
#19 9.9%
#20 18.1%
#21 21.2%
#22 25.0%
#23 16.6%
#24 6.1%
#25 0.8%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Boston University #13 0.7%
#14 2.6%
#15 8.6%
#16 11.1%
#17 19.2%
#18 10.1%
#19 22.4%
#20 19.2%
#21 5.0%
#22 1.2%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#13     2.9%
#14     10.3%
#15     34.6%
#16   12.5% 31.7%
#17   57.7% 19.1%
#18 11.6% 15.6% 1.5%
#19 40.0% 9.4%  
#20 36.0% 4.8%  
#21 10.0%    
#22 2.4%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Rensselaer #14 0.6%
#15 3.1%
#16 16.8%
#17 45.7%
#18 30.0%
#19 3.8%
Tournament invites: 0.7%		 n/a
Brown #17 3.1%
#18 13.8%
#19 28.6%
#20 25.9%
#21 14.9%
#22 8.7%
#23 4.0%
#24 1.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
#17   6.2%
#18   27.5%
#19 11.0% 46.2%
#20 31.7% 20.1%
#21 29.9%  
#22 17.4%  
#23 8.1%  
#24 2.0%  
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Robert Morris #16 1.1%
#17 7.3%
#18 29.1%
#19 12.5%
#20 0.0%
#21 0.9%
#22 1.7%
#23 5.9%
#24 7.5%
#25 17.7%
#26 9.4%
#27 6.9%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
CC #18 0.1%
#19 1.0%
#20 2.2%
#21 4.1%
#22 6.7%
#23 13.1%
#24 16.9%
#25 22.1%
#26 31.0%
#27 2.7%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#18     0.5%
#19     4.1%
#20     8.9%
#21     16.2%
#22   4.9% 21.9%
#23   18.7% 33.7%
#24 9.2% 34.6% 14.5%
#25 29.2% 29.9% 0.2%
#26 56.2% 11.8%  
#27 5.4%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Ohio State #18 0.8%
#19 2.1%
#20 6.6%
#21 6.6%
#22 4.4%
#23 9.2%
#24 4.3%
#25 3.5%
#26 0.0%
#27 9.0%
#28 22.2%
#29 25.0%
#30 0.0%
#31 6.3%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#18     3.1%
#19     8.6%
#20     26.3%
#21   0.1% 26.3%
#22   6.0% 11.5%
#23   18.8% 18.0%
#24   17.3%  
#25   7.9% 6.3%
#26      
#27   36.2%  
#28 37.5% 13.8%  
#29 50.0%    
#30 0.0%    
#31 12.5%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Michigan #23 1.6%
#24 9.4%
#25 10.2%
#26 3.9%
#27 4.5%
#28 8.0%
#29 10.2%
#30 2.3%
#31 0.7%
#32 0.3%
Non-TUC 49.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#23     6.3%
#24     37.5%
#25     40.6%
#26     15.6%
#27   17.8%  
#28   32.2%  
#29   40.8%  
#30   9.2%  
#31 1.4%    
#32 0.7%    
Non-TUC 97.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Connecticut #24 2.6%
#25 9.1%
#26 8.7%
#27 4.5%
#28 0.0%
#29 5.2%
#30 12.3%
#31 2.8%
#32 4.8%
Non-TUC 50.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#24     10.5%
#25     36.4%
#26     35.0%
#27     18.2%
#28      
#29   20.7%  
#30   49.1%  
#31   11.1%  
#32   19.1%  
Non-TUC 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 50.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1
Non-TUC 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 100.0%
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
Non-TUC 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Remaining possible outcomes after Thursday night.

With Wisconsin and Colorado College winning, Alaska’s hopes are officially dashed, Robert Morris’s hopes have been reduced to very very slim, and St. Cloud can now (almost!) clinch an NCAA berth with a single win.

Edit — Hat tip to RHamilton for pointing out in the comments that the 100% formerly under SCSU was rounded and there are indeed 10 very rare scenarios in which St Cloud St can win a game and miss the NCAA tournament.

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall By number of wins
Quinnipiac #1 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
UMN #2 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Miami #3 55.4%
#4 34.8%
#5 8.1%
#6 1.7%
#7 0.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3 37.2% 51.7% 95.6%
#4 45.2% 44.4% 4.4%
#5 14.4% 3.4%  
#6 3.2% 0.5%  
#7 0.1%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Boston College #3 18.8%
#4 23.9%
#5 28.7%
#6 18.9%
#7 7.7%
#8 2.0%
#9 0.1%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     75.0%
#4 21.1% 28.5% 25.0%
#5 34.1% 46.5%  
#6 27.5% 20.6%  
#7 13.4% 3.9%  
#8 3.7% 0.4%  
#9 0.3%    
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Yale #3 1.4%
#4 16.0%
#5 21.4%
#6 16.8%
#7 12.1%
#8 6.3%
#9 3.9%
#10 2.7%
#11 2.7%
#12 4.2%
#13 6.4%
#14 4.7%
#15 1.2%
#16 0.2%
#17 0.0%
Tournament invites: 96.3%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     5.6%
#4   3.9% 57.5%
#5 3.0% 29.7% 32.3%
#6 4.4% 34.4% 4.0%
#7 8.6% 21.8% 0.7%
#8 9.2% 7.7%  
#9 9.3% 2.0%  
#10 7.5% 0.5%  
#11 8.1% 0.0%  
#12 12.5% 0.0%  
#13 19.2%    
#14 14.0%    
#15 3.5%    
#16 0.6%    
#17 0.0%    
Tournament invites: 89.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Mass.-Lowell #3 18.0%
#4 7.0%
#5 16.9%
#6 30.5%
#7 17.9%
#8 8.1%
#9 1.5%
#10 0.1%
Tournament invites: 100.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3   1.7% 70.1%
#4   10.2% 17.9%
#5 9.7% 36.5% 11.8%
#6 41.8% 38.3% 0.2%
#7 30.4% 11.1%  
#8 15.1% 2.0%  
#9 2.8% 0.3%  
#10 0.1% 0.0%  
Tournament invites: 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
UND #5 2.8%
#6 9.9%
#7 27.2%
#8 22.1%
#9 21.7%
#10 13.3%
#11 3.0%
#12 0.0%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
New Hampshire #5 0.5%
#6 4.8%
#7 15.2%
#8 41.1%
#9 33.3%
#10 5.0%
#11 0.1%
Tournament invites: 100.0%		 n/a
Notre Dame #3 6.3%
#4 6.6%
#5 1.7%
#6 0.5%
#7 2.3%
#8 2.4%
#9 7.8%
#10 16.4%
#11 13.5%
#12 6.5%
#13 8.4%
#14 6.5%
#15 10.8%
#16 8.4%
#17 1.5%
#18 0.1%
Tournament invites: 79.7%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     25.1%
#4     26.5%
#5   1.8% 4.9%
#6   1.9% 0.1%
#7   9.3%  
#8 0.4% 8.8% 0.0%
#9 6.5% 15.7% 2.6%
#10 17.7% 11.1% 19.3%
#11 16.3% 2.4% 19.1%
#12 7.6% 8.7% 2.2%
#13 2.3% 28.8% 0.2%
#14 7.9% 10.3%  
#15 21.1% 1.2%  
#16 16.9% 0.0%  
#17 3.1%    
#18 0.3%    
Tournament invites: 60.4% 97.9% 100.0%
Mankato #5 0.0%
#6 0.3%
#7 1.2%
#8 4.4%
#9 19.1%
#10 34.2%
#11 26.2%
#12 11.8%
#13 2.6%
#14 0.2%
Tournament invites: 99.0%		 n/a
Niagara #4 5.7%
#5 10.5%
#6 8.5%
#7 7.0%
#8 3.1%
#9 2.3%
#10 5.2%
#11 11.9%
#12 21.3%
#13 21.4%
#14 2.9%
#15 0.2%
Tournament invites: 93.5%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#4     22.7%
#5   1.1% 40.9%
#6   9.1% 25.1%
#7   18.5% 9.5%
#8   10.8% 1.7%
#9 0.0% 9.0% 0.1%
#10 1.7% 17.5%  
#11 12.7% 22.3%  
#12 37.5% 10.2%  
#13 42.1% 1.4%  
#14 5.7%    
#15 0.3%    
Tournament invites: 87.2% 99.5% 100.0%
SCSU #3 0.2%
#4 6.0%
#5 9.4%
#6 7.9%
#7 9.4%
#8 9.8%
#9 5.0%
#10 3.3%
#11 7.6%
#12 16.0%
#13 18.3%
#14 6.0%
#15 1.1%
Tournament invites: 91.1%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#3     0.8%
#4     23.8%
#5   1.2% 36.5%
#6   6.4% 25.3%
#7   26.5% 10.9%
#8   36.7% 2.4%
#9 0.2% 19.3% 0.2%
#10 3.1% 7.1%  
#11 14.0% 2.4%  
#12 31.9% 0.3%  
#13 36.5% 0.0%  
#14 12.1%    
#15 2.2%    
Tournament invites: 82.3% >99.9% 100.0%
Denver #7 0.0%
#8 0.8%
#9 5.3%
#10 18.9%
#11 30.0%
#12 30.1%
#13 14.7%
#14 0.2%
Tournament invites: 97.0%		 n/a
Western Michigan #13 12.3%
#14 52.5%
#15 29.1%
#16 6.1%
#17 0.0%
Tournament invites: 48.1%		 n/a
Union #9 0.0%
#10 0.4%
#11 2.7%
#12 7.0%
#13 9.4%
#14 11.9%
#15 26.8%
#16 24.6%
#17 7.5%
#18 4.1%
#19 3.2%
#20 1.9%
#21 0.4%
#22 0.1%
Tournament invites: 37.9%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#9     0.1%
#10     1.7%
#11     10.6%
#12     28.1%
#13   0.6% 36.6%
#14 4.4% 11.4% 22.9%
#15 21.6% 47.0%  
#16 28.0% 36.8%  
#17 17.1% 4.3%  
#18 12.4%    
#19 9.5%    
#20 5.6%    
#21 1.2%    
#22 0.2%    
Tournament invites: 11.9% 21.4% 100.0%
UW #10 0.4%
#11 2.3%
#12 3.0%
#13 4.6%
#14 9.5%
#15 7.7%
#16 11.7%
#17 17.5%
#18 21.1%
#19 14.7%
#20 6.1%
#21 1.5%
#22 0.1%
Tournament invites: 26.3%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#10     1.4%
#11     9.1%
#12     12.1%
#13     18.2%
#14   2.0% 36.1%
#15   12.7% 18.2%
#16 0.1% 41.6% 4.8%
#17 20.6% 28.7%  
#18 36.8% 10.7%  
#19 27.3% 4.2%  
#20 12.1% 0.1%  
#21 2.9%    
#22 0.1%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 5.3% 100.0%
Providence #13 0.0%
#14 0.7%
#15 5.4%
#16 9.6%
#17 7.4%
#18 9.5%
#19 17.2%
#20 17.3%
#21 13.1%
#22 9.3%
#23 6.9%
#24 2.7%
#25 0.7%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#13     0.0%
#14     2.9%
#15     21.4%
#16   2.0% 36.4%
#17 0.0% 5.0% 24.6%
#18 5.3% 18.5% 9.2%
#19 14.2% 36.2% 4.1%
#20 20.9% 26.1% 1.4%
#21 20.7% 11.0%  
#22 18.1% 1.2%  
#23 13.8%    
#24 5.5%    
#25 1.4%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.2% 100.0%
Boston University #13 2.0%
#14 4.0%
#15 11.6%
#16 10.9%
#17 9.7%
#18 10.5%
#19 20.7%
#20 18.4%
#21 8.9%
#22 3.1%
#23 0.3%
Tournament invites: 25.8%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#13     7.9%
#14   0.5% 15.5%
#15   3.3% 43.2%
#16   19.6% 24.1%
#17   30.1% 8.5%
#18 8.5% 24.0% 0.7%
#19 33.3% 16.2%  
#20 34.2% 5.3%  
#21 17.4% 0.7%  
#22 6.0% 0.2%  
#23 0.6%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 3.2% 100.0%
Rensselaer #14 0.8%
#15 6.1%
#16 24.7%
#17 34.0%
#18 22.9%
#19 8.9%
#20 2.4%
#21 0.3%
Tournament invites: 5.0%		 n/a
Alaska #16 0.2%
#17 1.9%
#18 5.1%
#19 11.1%
#20 15.4%
#21 15.2%
#22 15.0%
#23 15.0%
#24 12.0%
#25 6.4%
#26 2.4%
#27 0.2%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Cornell #19 0.9%
#20 2.4%
#21 4.2%
#22 8.8%
#23 19.6%
#24 28.6%
#25 24.3%
#26 10.2%
#27 1.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Brown #16 0.1%
#17 0.8%
#18 4.2%
#19 10.5%
#20 17.4%
#21 20.4%
#22 14.3%
#23 8.0%
#24 6.5%
#25 6.2%
#26 7.9%
#27 3.0%
#28 0.5%
#29 0.1%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#16     0.3%
#17     3.4%
#18     16.9%
#19 0.5% 5.3% 32.7%
#20 4.2% 22.6% 26.2%
#21 7.3% 32.5% 17.6%
#22 8.3% 25.8% 3.0%
#23 13.4% 8.5%  
#24 13.5% 4.9%  
#25 18.1% 0.5%  
#26 23.6%    
#27 9.1%    
#28 1.6%    
#29 0.2%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Dartmouth #18 0.1%
#19 2.4%
#20 10.4%
#21 23.0%
#22 31.5%
#23 22.0%
#24 9.5%
#25 1.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Robert Morris #15 0.0%
#16 3.5%
#17 19.7%
#18 20.1%
#19 6.5%
#20 0.9%
#21 1.9%
#22 4.6%
#23 7.2%
#24 10.6%
#25 15.9%
#26 7.0%
#27 1.9%
Tournament invites: 0.2%		 n/a
CC #18 0.1%
#19 0.9%
#20 2.6%
#21 5.7%
#22 7.7%
#23 11.4%
#24 15.4%
#25 25.2%
#26 26.2%
#27 4.8%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#18     0.4%
#19     3.5%
#20     10.4%
#21   2.1% 20.6%
#22   7.0% 23.7%
#23 1.5% 15.9% 26.7%
#24 7.6% 33.3% 13.3%
#25 34.0% 31.8% 1.3%
#26 47.4% 9.9% 0.1%
#27 9.5%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Ohio State #18 2.1%
#19 3.0%
#20 4.9%
#21 5.3%
#22 5.0%
#23 6.3%
#24 4.4%
#25 4.4%
#26 2.8%
#27 8.1%
#28 22.3%
#29 25.1%
#30 0.2%
#31 6.1%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#18     8.2%
#19     12.0%
#20   0.0% 19.7%
#21   1.4% 19.7%
#22   5.4% 14.8%
#23   11.7% 13.5%
#24   12.7% 4.9%
#25   11.7% 5.9%
#26   9.7% 1.3%
#27   32.4%  
#28 37.5% 14.3%  
#29 49.8% 0.7%  
#30 0.4%    
#31 12.3%    
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Ferris State #26 5.9%
#27 44.0%
#28 39.8%
#29 9.6%
#30 0.7%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
St. Lawrence #24 0.0%
#25 0.1%
#26 22.4%
#27 28.3%
#28 29.4%
#29 16.7%
#30 3.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Nebraska-Omaha #29 20.3%
#30 47.8%
#31 20.8%
#32 11.1%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Michigan #21 0.0%
#22 0.2%
#23 1.8%
#24 6.5%
#25 8.8%
#26 7.5%
#27 3.8%
#28 8.0%
#29 11.0%
#30 2.4%
#31 1.1%
#32 0.6%
Non-TUC 48.3%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#21     0.1%
#22     0.8%
#23     7.0%
#24     26.0%
#25     35.4%
#26     30.1%
#27   14.5% 0.6%
#28   32.0%  
#29   43.8%  
#30   9.7%  
#31 2.2%    
#32 1.1%    
Non-TUC 96.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Connecticut #21 0.2%
#22 0.3%
#23 1.5%
#24 3.6%
#25 6.8%
#26 7.8%
#27 4.8%
#28 0.0%
#29 8.3%
#30 12.2%
#31 2.0%
#32 2.5%
Non-TUC 50.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
#21     0.8%
#22     1.2%
#23     6.2%
#24     14.3%
#25     27.1%
#26     31.0%
#27     19.3%
#28      
#29   33.3%  
#30   48.9%  
#31   8.0%  
#32   9.9%  
Non-TUC 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Holy Cross #29 8.9%
#30 33.5%
#31 46.1%
#32 11.4%
Tournament invites: 0.0%		 n/a
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
Non-TUC 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0%
Tournament invites: 25.0%
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
Non-TUC 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Tournament invites: 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%