In this idle weekend, #2 UND (PairWise Rankings) is most likely to keep its #2 ranking, but if they move it will probably be down to #3.
That .7% chance of UND taking #1 is largely the likelihood of Alaska-Anchorage sweeping Minnesota State (KRACH gives Anchorage a ranking of 53.43 and Minnesota State a ranking of 613.98, thus predicting Alaska-Anchorage has an 8% chance of winning each game, or about a .6% chance of winning both).
To see the threat of falling to #3, UND need only look at current #3 Boston University. UND currently wins the comparison 2-0, but on a razor thin .5856-.5845 RPI advantage. Even a single BU win (and a few other things going right) could be enough for BU to overtake UND.
End of regular season outlook
The regular season outlook has improved to the point that UND is nearly a lock for an at-large bid. Only an epic collapse (e.g. 2 or fewer wins in the final 8 games) combined with a disastrous conference tournament could knock UND out.