UND’s possible PWR outcomes are pretty predictable at this point, but that doesn’t mean there’s no excitement. Quite a few more teams than intuition might suggest are capable of falling out of the tournament field.
Here are the possible final PWR ranges for each team that’s still a possible TUC. There could be some extreme outlying possibility that I’m not catching, but these already show a lot more possible movement than I’ve seen speculated elsewhere…
| Denver | 1-3 |
| Miami | 1-3 |
| UW | 1-5 |
| UND | 3-6 |
| SCSU | 4-11 |
| Boston College | 3-9 |
| UMD | 5-19 |
| Northern Michigan | 6-19 |
| Ferris State | 5-18 |
| CC | 18-25 |
| New Hampshire | 10-18 |
| UMN | 20-25 |
| Bemidji State | 5-11 |
| Alaska | 10-18 |
| Vermont | 6-19 |
| Michigan | 10-25 |
| Michigan State | 12-21 |
| Nebraska-Omaha | 18-24 |
| Cornell | 5-19 |
| Maine | 11-25 |
| Boston University | 12-25 |
| Mass.-Lowell | 18-25 |
| Ohio State | 24-N/TUC |
| Yale | 7-13 |
| Northeastern | 25-N/TUC |
| Massachusetts | 16-20 or N/TUC |
| Union | 11-N/TUC |
| St. Lawrence | 23-N/TUC |
| RIT | 20-N/TUC |
If you want a probability distribution chart for one of these or having trouble working out the scenario, just let me know and I can help out.
Resources
- PWR Forum thread – already contains lots of discussion about exactly what needs to happen for UND to achieve each ranking
- You Are the Committee – Run your own PWR scenarios
A request came in for a scenario that puts Michigan State at #12. Here’s one that puts them at #12 (actually tie for 11th but losing the RPI tie breaker). The bad news for Michigan State fans is that this scenario seems to be come up about 1 in 80,000 possible outcomes.
# Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
# Hockey East Semifinal #1: Vermont defeats Boston College.
# Hockey East Championship game: Vermont defeats Maine.
# ECAC Semifinal #2: St. Lawrence defeats Union.
# ECAC Semifinal #1: Brown defeats Cornell.
# ECAC Championship game: Brown defeats St. Lawrence.
# ECAC Consolation game: Union defeats Cornell.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Canisius.
# Atlantic Hockey Championship game: RIT defeats Sacred Heart.
# CCHA Semifinal #2: Northern Michigan defeats Ferris State.
# CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Miami.
# CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
# CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Ferris State.
# WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats North Dakota.
# WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.
# WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
# WCHA Championship game: Denver defeats St. Cloud State.
# WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
Situation simulated via CHN’s You are the Committee
1 [AQ] Denver (DU) 24 .5883* Mm Wi SC BC ND BS Ya Vt NM Mi MS Ak NH FS Me MD Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
2 Miami (Mm) 23 .5792* Wi SC BC ND BS Ya Vt NM Mi MS Ak NH FS Me MD Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
3 Wisconsin (Wi) 22 .5679 SC BC ND BS Ya Vt NM Mi MS Ak NH FS Me MD Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
4t St. Cloud State (SC) 20 .5501 BC ND BS Ya NM Mi MS Ak NH FS Me MD Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
4t Boston College (BC) 20 .5531 ND BS Ya Vt NM Mi MS Ak NH FS Me MD Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
6 North Dakota (ND) 19 .5495 BS Ya Vt NM Mi MS Ak NH FS Me MD Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
7 Bemidji State (BS) 18 .5433 Ya Vt NM Mi MS Ak NH FS Me MD Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
8t Yale (Ya) 17 .5370 Vt NM Mi MS Ak NH FS Me MD Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
8t [AQ] Vermont (Vt) 17 .5364 SC NM Mi MS Ak NH FS Me MD Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
10 Northern Michigan (NM) 15 .5349 Mi MS Ak NH FS Me MD Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
11t [AQ] Michigan (Mi) 12 .5314 MS Ak FS MD Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
11t Michigan State (MS) 12 .5253 NH FS Me MD Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
13t Alaska (Ak) 11 .5301 MS NH Me Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
13t New Hampshire (NH) 11 .5333 Mi FS Me Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
15 Ferris State (FS) 10 .5335 Ak Me Cr Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
16t Maine (Me) 9 .5213 Mi MD Cr CC NO RT ML BU Mn
16t Minnesota-Duluth (MD) 9 .5335 Ak NH FS Cr Un CC NO RT Mn
18 Cornell (Cr) 7 .5295 Un CC NO RT ML BU Mn
19 Union (Un) 6 .5228 Me NO RT ML BU Mn
20t Colorado College (CC) 4 .5252 Un NO RT Mn
20t Nebraska-Omaha (NO) 4 .5196 RT ML BU Mn
22t [AQ] RIT (RT) 3 .5179 ML BU Mn
22t Mass.-Lowell (ML) 3 .5174 MD CC BU
22t Boston University (BU) 3 .5165 MD CC Mn
25 [IE] Minnesota (Mn) 1 .5175 ML
Union as a non-TUC:
# Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
# Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Vermont.
# Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
# ECAC Semifinal #2: St. Lawrence defeats Union.
# ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Brown.
# ECAC Championship game: St. Lawrence defeats Cornell.
# ECAC Consolation game: Brown defeats Union.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Canisius.
# Atlantic Hockey Championship game: RIT defeats Sacred Heart.
# CCHA Semifinal #2: Ferris State defeats Northern Michigan.
# CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Miami.
# CCHA Championship game: Ferris State defeats Michigan.
# CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Miami.
# WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats North Dakota.
# WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State.
# WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
# WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Wisconsin.
# WCHA Consolation game: Denver defeats St. Cloud State.
1 Denver (DU) 24 .5814* Mm Wi BC ND MD FS BS SC Ya Cr NM Ak Vt NH BU MS Mi CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
2 Miami (Mm) 23 .5722* Wi BC ND MD FS BS SC Ya Cr NM Ak Vt NH BU MS Mi CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
3 Wisconsin (Wi) 22 .5672 BC ND MD FS BS SC Ya Cr NM Ak Vt NH BU MS Mi CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
4 [AQ] Boston College (BC) 21 .5630 ND MD FS BS SC Ya Cr NM Ak Vt NH BU MS Mi CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
5 North Dakota (ND) 20 .5495 MD FS BS SC Ya Cr NM Ak Vt NH BU MS Mi CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
6t [AQ] Minnesota-Duluth (MD) 18 .5459 FS BS SC Ya Cr NM Ak Vt NH BU MS Mi CC NO ML RT Mn SL
6t [AQ] Ferris State (FS) 18 .5451 BS SC Ya Cr NM Ak Vt NH BU MS Mi CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
8 Bemidji State (BS) 17 .5443 SC Ya Cr NM Ak Vt NH BU MS Mi CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
9t St. Cloud State (SC) 14 .5421 Ya Cr NM NH BU MS Mi CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
9t Yale (Ya) 14 .5364 NM Ak Vt NH BU MS Mi CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
11t Cornell (Cr) 13 .5371 Ya NM Ak NH BU Mi CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
11t Northern Michigan (NM) 13 .5363 Ak Vt NH BU MS Mi CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
11t Alaska (Ak) 13 .5302 SC Vt NH BU MS Mi CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
14 Vermont (Vt) 12 .5268 SC Cr BU MS Mi CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
15 New Hampshire (NH) 10 .5326 Vt BU Mi CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
16t Boston University (BU) 8 .5210 MS CC NO ML Me RT Mn SL
16t Michigan State (MS) 8 .5246 Cr NH NO ML Me RT Mn SL
18 Michigan (Mi) 7 .5253 BU MS CC NO Me RT Mn
19 Colorado College (CC) 5 .5256 MS NO RT Mn SL
20t Nebraska-Omaha (NO) 4 .5202 ML RT Mn SL
20t Mass.-Lowell (ML) 4 .5174 Mi CC Me SL
20t Maine (Me) 4 .5173 MD CC NO SL
23t [AQ] RIT (RT) 3 .5185 ML Me Mn
23t [IE] Minnesota (Mn) 3 .5176 ML Me SL
25 [AQ] St. Lawrence (SL) 2 .5147 Mi RT
And Maine at #11:
# Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
# Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Vermont.
# Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats Boston College.
# ECAC Semifinal #2: Union defeats St. Lawrence.
# ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Brown.
# ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Cornell.
# ECAC Consolation game: St. Lawrence defeats Brown.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Sacred Heart.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Canisius.
# Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.
# CCHA Semifinal #2: Ferris State defeats Northern Michigan.
# CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan.
# CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Ferris State.
# CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
# WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats North Dakota.
# WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.
# WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
# WCHA Championship game: Denver defeats St. Cloud State.
# WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
1 [AQ] Denver (DU) 24 .5883* Mm Wi BC SC ND BS FS Ya NH Me Cr Ak MD Un NM Vt MA MS ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
2 [AQ] Miami (Mm) 23 .5867* Wi BC SC ND BS FS Ya NH Me Cr Ak MD Un NM Vt MA MS ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
3 Wisconsin (Wi) 22 .5672 BC SC ND BS FS Ya NH Me Cr Ak MD Un NM Vt MA MS ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
4 Boston College (BC) 21 .5562 SC ND BS FS Ya NH Me Cr Ak MD Un NM Vt MA MS ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
5 St. Cloud State (SC) 20 .5500 ND BS FS Ya NH Me Cr Ak MD Un NM Vt MA MS ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
6 North Dakota (ND) 19 .5496 BS FS Ya NH Me Cr Ak MD Un NM Vt MA MS ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
7 Bemidji State (BS) 18 .5443 FS Ya NH Me Cr Ak MD Un NM Vt MA MS ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
8 Ferris State (FS) 16 .5405 Ya Me Cr Ak MD Un NM Vt MA MS ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
9t Yale (Ya) 14 .5354 NH Me Ak MD Un NM Vt MS ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
9t New Hampshire (NH) 14 .5332 FS Me MD Un NM Vt MA MS ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
11 [AQ] Maine (Me) 12 .5283 Cr MD NM Vt MA MS ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
12t Cornell (Cr) 11 .5370 Ya NH Ak Un NM ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
12t Alaska (Ak) 11 .5294 NH Me NM Vt MS ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
14t Minnesota-Duluth (MD) 10 .5331 Cr Ak Un NM Vt ML Mi NO CC Mn
14t [AQ] Union (Un) 10 .5295 Me Ak NM Vt MS ML Mi NO CC Mn
16t Northern Michigan (NM) 9 .5283 Vt MA MS ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
16t Vermont (Vt) 9 .5267 Cr MA MS ML Mi BU NO CC Mn
18 Massachusetts (MA) 8 .5113 Ya Cr Ak MD Un MS Mi CC
19 Michigan State (MS) 6 .5249 Cr MD ML BU NO Mn
20t Mass.-Lowell (ML) 5 .5182 MA Mi BU CC Mn
20t Michigan (Mi) 5 .5251 MS BU NO CC Mn
20t Boston University (BU) 5 .5169 MD Un MA CC Mn
23 Nebraska-Omaha (NO) 4 .5195 MA ML BU Mn
24 Colorado College (CC) 3 .5255 MS NO Mn
25 [IE] Minnesota (Mn) 1 .5172 MA
Could you post the probability distribution for NMU? I was also wondering what program you are using to run your algorithms. (I’ve been trying to run mine in stata but have hit a wall) Thanks!
Note that you have to use CHN’s YATC right now. As I explain here, USCHO’s Predictor is currently broken.
Here’s Northern Michigan at #19:
# Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
# Hockey East Semifinal #1: Vermont defeats Boston College.
# Hockey East Championship game: Vermont defeats Maine.
# ECAC Semifinal #2: Union defeats St. Lawrence.
# ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Brown.
# ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Cornell.
# ECAC Consolation game: Brown defeats St. Lawrence.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Canisius.
# Atlantic Hockey Championship game: RIT defeats Sacred Heart.
# CCHA Semifinal #2: Ferris State defeats Northern Michigan.
# CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Miami.
# CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ferris State.
# CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
# WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.
# WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Denver.
# WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
# WCHA Consolation game: Denver defeats Wisconsin.
1 Denver (DU) 24 .5828* Mm Wi SC ND BC BS FS Ya Vt Cr NH Mi Un Ak MS Me MD NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
2 Miami (Mm) 23 .5795* Wi SC ND BC BS FS Ya Vt Cr NH Mi Un Ak MS Me MD NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
3 Wisconsin (Wi) 22 .5623 SC ND BC BS FS Ya Vt Cr NH Mi Un Ak MS Me MD NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
4 [AQ] St. Cloud State (SC) 21 .5565 ND BC BS FS Ya Vt Cr NH Mi Un Ak MS Me MD NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
5 North Dakota (ND) 20 .5558 BC BS FS Ya Vt Cr NH Mi Un Ak MS Me MD NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
6 Boston College (BC) 19 .5529 BS FS Ya Vt Cr NH Mi Un Ak MS Me MD NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
7 Bemidji State (BS) 18 .5428 FS Ya Vt Cr NH Mi Un Ak MS Me MD NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
8 Ferris State (FS) 17 .5389 Ya Vt Cr NH Mi Un Ak MS Me MD NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
9t Yale (Ya) 15 .5367 Vt NH Mi Un Ak MS Me MD NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
9t [AQ] Vermont (Vt) 15 .5358 Cr NH Mi Un Ak MS Me MD NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
11 Cornell (Cr) 13 .5382 Ya NH Mi Un Ak MD NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
12t New Hampshire (NH) 11 .5333 Mi Un Me MD NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
12t [AQ] Michigan (Mi) 11 .5312 Un Ak MS MD NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
14t [AQ] Union (Un) 10 .5299 Ak MS Me NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
14t Alaska (Ak) 10 .5296 NH MS Me NM NO ML BU CC Mn RT
16t Michigan State (MS) 9 .5250 Cr NH Me NO ML BU CC Mn RT
16t Maine (Me) 9 .5213 Cr Mi MD NO ML BU CC Mn RT
18t Minnesota-Duluth (MD) 8 .5326 Un Ak MS NM NO CC Mn RT
18t Northern Michigan (NM) 8 .5290 MS Me NO ML BU CC Mn RT
20 Nebraska-Omaha (NO) 4 .5192 ML BU Mn RT
21t Mass.-Lowell (ML) 3 .5172 MD BU CC
21t Boston University (BU) 3 .5167 MD CC Mn
21t Colorado College (CC) 3 .5244 NO Mn RT
24t [IE] Minnesota (Mn) 2 .5182 ML RT
24t [AQ] RIT (RT) 2 .5177 ML BU
Here’s Northern Michigan at #6:
# Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
# Hockey East Semifinal #1: Vermont defeats Boston College.
# Hockey East Championship game: Vermont defeats Maine.
# ECAC Semifinal #2: St. Lawrence defeats Union.
# ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Brown.
# ECAC Championship game: St. Lawrence defeats Cornell.
# ECAC Consolation game: Union defeats Brown.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Sacred Heart.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Canisius defeats RIT.
# Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Canisius defeats Air Force.
# CCHA Semifinal #2: Northern Michigan defeats Ferris State.
# CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan.
# CCHA Championship game: Northern Michigan defeats Miami.
# CCHA Consolation game: Ferris State defeats Michigan.
# WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State.
# WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
# WCHA Championship game: Denver defeats Wisconsin.
# WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
1 [AQ] Denver (DU) 24 .5899* Mm Wi ND BS NM Vt SC BC FS Cr Ya Ak Un NH Me MD MS CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
2 Miami (Mm) 23 .5794* Wi ND BS NM Vt SC BC FS Cr Ya Ak Un NH Me MD MS CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
3 Wisconsin (Wi) 22 .5677 ND BS NM Vt SC BC FS Cr Ya Ak Un NH Me MD MS CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
4 North Dakota (ND) 21 .5555 BS NM Vt SC BC FS Cr Ya Ak Un NH Me MD MS CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
5 Bemidji State (BS) 19 .5443 NM Vt SC FS Cr Ya Ak Un NH Me MD MS CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
6 [AQ] Northern Michigan (NM) 18 .5427 Vt SC FS Cr Ya Ak Un NH Me MD MS CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
7t [AQ] Vermont (Vt) 17 .5367 SC BC Cr Ya Ak Un NH Me MD MS CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
7t St. Cloud State (SC) 17 .5426 BC FS Cr Ya Ak Un NH Me MD MS CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
7t Boston College (BC) 17 .5536 BS NM FS Ya Ak Un NH Me MD MS CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
10 Ferris State (FS) 16 .5396 Vt Cr Ya Ak Un NH Me MD MS CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
11 Cornell (Cr) 14 .5368 BC Ya Ak Un NH MD MS CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
12 Yale (Ya) 13 .5354 Ak Un NH Me MD MS CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
13 Alaska (Ak) 11 .5309 Un NH Me MS CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
14t Union (Un) 9 .5207 NH Me MS NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
14t New Hampshire (NH) 9 .5336 Me MD CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
14t Maine (Me) 9 .5212 Cr MD CC NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
17t Minnesota-Duluth (MD) 8 .5332 Ak Un MS CC NO Mi Mn SL
17t Michigan State (MS) 8 .5242 NH Me NO ML BU Mi Mn SL
19 Colorado College (CC) 6 .5244 Un MS NO Mi Mn SL
20t Nebraska-Omaha (NO) 5 .5206 ML BU Mi Mn SL
20t Mass.-Lowell (ML) 5 .5178 MD CC BU Mi SL
22 Boston University (BU) 4 .5166 MD CC Mn SL
23t Michigan (Mi) 2 .5193 BU Mn
23t [IE] Minnesota (Mn) 2 .5186 ML SL
25 [AQ] St. Lawrence (SL) 1 .5139 Mi
It’s a custom program (in Java). I’d find it hard to do the pairwise comparisons in Stata, which I usually think of as primarily for panel data, but I’m also not great w/Stata.
Thanks. I’ll have to try it in java for next year. Stata can run algorithms but it starts getting really picky and you have to make an insane amount of manual adjustment.
Sioux yeah yeah
and of course
GO CATS!!!