Duluth losing had the biggest impact on… Duluth.
However, contrary to popular wisdom, I still see Duluth as possibly getting in. I’m getting a 1/220 chance of UMD finishing #12 and a 1/25 chance of UMD finishing #13 or higher.
Here’s the rub, and why no one else agrees with me — I can’t duplicate it on either the USCHO or CHN calculators right now. I have a theory that involves both of those sites having broken calculators and sufficient hubris that I’m willing to make this post, but it’s certainly still possible the error is on my end, so don’t get too excited about this until that problem has been resolved.
Denver 1-2
Miami 1-3
UW 2-5
UND 3-6
SCSU 4-10
Boston College 3-9
UMD 12-19
Northern Michigan 6-19
Ferris State 5-17
CC 18-25
New Hampshire 10-18
UMN 20-25
Bemidji State 5-10
Alaska 10-17
Vermont 6-19
Michigan 10-25
Michigan State 13-21
Nebraska-Omaha 18-24
Cornell 5-19
Maine 12-24
Boston University 13-24
Mass.-Lowell 18-25
Yale 7-12
Northeastern 25-N/TUC
Massachusetts 16-20 or N/TUC
Union 12-N/TUC
St. Lawrence 24-N/TUC
RIT 21-N/TUC
10:00ET Update… CHN seems to have made a fix to their calculator as of about 10am ET. Here’s what I think USCHO and CHN were both doing wrong: I think they were adding whatever results you selected on the form to their records of season results to date. However, even after recording the UND/UMD result they left the UND/UMD game on the form, so when you chose UND as the winner of the UND/UMD game, that game was getting double counted. That exaggerated the harm to UMD and made it seem like the Bulldogs couldn’t advance.
It’s still pretty unlikely, but here’s a scenario under which the CHN calculator now shows the Bulldogs advance:
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Vermont defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Championship game: Vermont defeats Maine.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: St. Lawrence defeats Union.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Brown defeats Cornell.
* ECAC Championship game: Brown defeats St. Lawrence.
* ECAC Consolation game: Union defeats Cornell.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Canisius.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats RIT.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Northern Michigan defeats Ferris State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Northern Michigan defeats Miami.
* CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Ferris State.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Denver.
* WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Consolation game: Denver defeats Wisconsin.
1:35pm update USCHO is now also fixed