The Sioux have an opportunity to make a move in the PairWise Rankings (PWR) and toward an NCAA tournament selection.

Last weekend, a sweep was necessary just to maintain UND’s ranking of #14. The Sioux did sweep and rose modestly to #13.

This weekend, a sweep could easily push UND up a couple more spots into the relative safety of a #10-#12 ranking.

Any outcome in which UND fails to advance, whether winning a single game or none, would leave UND on the bubble for the NCAA tournament. The #14 ranked team stands a fair chance of making the tournament — it does so if 2 or fewer teams outside the top 16 gets autobids. However, UND’s ranking would be quite likely to move a slot or two while the Sioux watched the Final Five from home, leaving UND’s destiny out of its hands.

Likelihood of UND having a particular PWR ranking (or higher) on March 12, based on UND’s performance
0-2-0 1-2-0 2-1-0 2-0-0
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
6 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.96%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 5.21%
9 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% 18.12%
10 0.00% 0.00% 10.88% 42.71%
11 0.00% 0.23% 39.66% 75.41%
12 0.86% 3.74% 80.26% 95.90%
13 7.46% 20.22% 96.92% 99.99%
14 31.13% 54.48% 99.99% 100.00%
15 64.52% 83.66% 100.00% 100.00%
16 89.11% 97.21% 100.00% 100.00%
17 98.74% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
18 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
19 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
20 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

It doesn’t show up in the table (not enough decimal places), but there is about a 1/1,000,000 scenario in which UND comes out of the weekend #4 in the PWR and positioned for a 1 seed. The lowest likely rank, if swept, is #19.

Who else to watch this weekend

The two separate lists are the series UND cares most about if the Sioux win (outcomes that can flip other comparisons in UND’s favor) and the series that UND cares most about if the Sioux lose (outcomes that can flip comparisons away from UND).

If UND wins:

  • Wisconsin over Denver (win series)
  • Rensselaer over Union (one game if UND sweeps, series if UND goes 2-1)
  • Alaska Anchorage over Minnesota (win series)
  • Merrimack over Maine (win series if UND sweeps, not as important if UND goes 2-1)

If UND loses:

  • Maine over Merrimack (win series)
  • Michigan over Notre Dame (win series)
  • Lake Superior over Wester Michigan (one game)
  • Dartmouth over Cornell (win series)

The series listed are those that increase UND’s PWR by at least .75 on average.

Outlook for all NCAA teams

I didn’t run charts (like the UND chart above) for any teams other than UND yet, but the data is all in the table below. If you’d like to see any particular team in chart form, just let me know.

Here are the likely PWR rankings for each NCAA team as of March 12 (after all of this weekend’s best-of-3 series complete).

Team March 12 PWR Possibilities
Overall Swept Advance (2-1-0 or 2-0-0)
Boston College 1 85.1%
2 12.7%
3 1.4%
4 0.6%
5 0.2%
6 0.0%
7 0.0%
1 27.6%
2 34.0%
3 23.6%
4 11.8%
5 2.9%
6 0.1%
7 0.0%
1 89.4%
2 10.6%
Michigan 1 2.2%
2 34.2%
3 15.4%
4 12.9%
5 13.9%
6 9.6%
7 5.4%
8 3.8%
9 1.8%
10 0.6%
11 0.1%
12 0.0%
2 0.0%
3 0.6%
4 2.8%
5 11.3%
6 20.7%
7 26.4%
8 22.6%
9 11.1%
10 3.5%
11 0.8%
12 0.1%
1 3.5%
2 53.5%
3 22.4%
4 14.3%
5 6.1%
6 0.3%
7 0.0%
Ferris State 1 0.0%
2 13.0%
3 26.0%
4 27.3%
5 18.4%
6 6.9%
7 3.2%
8 2.8%
9 1.7%
10 0.6%
11 0.1%
12 0.0%
2 0.0%
3 0.2%
4 1.5%
5 6.0%
6 12.8%
7 21.4%
8 27.3%
9 20.6%
10 8.2%
11 1.7%
12 0.2%
1 0.1%
2 14.6%
3 29.3%
4 30.4%
5 19.5%
6 5.7%
7 0.5%
8 0.0%
Mass.-Lowell 1 0.9%
2 18.4%
3 27.7%
4 16.0%
5 10.2%
6 9.2%
7 6.7%
8 3.4%
9 2.5%
10 2.6%
11 1.8%
12 0.5%
13 0.0%
2 0.0%
3 0.4%
4 1.4%
5 5.0%
6 12.1%
7 16.8%
8 15.4%
9 14.2%
10 16.9%
11 12.5%
12 4.7%
13 0.5%
1 1.1%
2 22.0%
3 33.0%
4 18.6%
5 10.8%
6 8.4%
7 4.9%
8 1.2%
9 0.1%
10 0.0%
11 0.0%
Boston University 1 0.0%
2 0.4%
3 3.2%
4 13.5%
5 23.7%
6 22.6%
7 11.5%
8 6.6%
9 5.6%
10 6.6%
11 5.0%
12 1.2%
13 0.2%
5 0.0%
6 0.2%
7 1.5%
8 5.6%
9 16.3%
10 31.9%
11 31.0%
12 11.6%
13 1.9%
1 0.0%
2 0.5%
3 4.1%
4 17.2%
5 30.2%
6 28.5%
7 13.1%
8 5.0%
9 1.2%
10 0.1%
11 0.0%
Miami 1 0.1%
2 0.8%
3 3.0%
4 6.0%
5 7.8%
6 8.2%
7 7.5%
8 9.5%
9 9.7%
10 7.0%
11 14.1%
12 17.1%
13 8.9%
14 0.2%
15 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.0%
9 0.2%
10 4.6%
11 22.7%
12 41.5%
13 29.9%
14 0.9%
15 0.0%
1 0.2%
2 1.5%
3 5.9%
4 11.9%
5 15.3%
6 16.2%
7 14.5%
8 17.0%
9 13.7%
10 3.2%
11 0.6%
12 0.0%
UMD 1 11.6%
2 20.4%
3 22.4%
4 19.8%
5 12.3%
6 7.3%
7 3.7%
8 1.7%
9 0.6%
10 0.2%
11 0.1%
12 0.0%
13 0.0%
2 0.1%
3 1.7%
4 7.3%
5 16.4%
6 25.3%
7 22.7%
8 14.6%
9 7.5%
10 3.0%
11 1.0%
12 0.2%
13 0.0%
1 12.7%
2 22.4%
3 24.4%
4 20.7%
5 11.5%
6 5.5%
7 2.1%
8 0.6%
9 0.1%
10 0.0%
11 0.0%
Michigan State 3 0.0%
4 0.0%
5 0.0%
6 0.5%
7 2.1%
8 6.8%
9 13.4%
10 15.4%
11 9.9%
12 9.5%
13 17.9%
14 14.3%
15 7.7%
16 2.1%
17 0.4%
18 0.0%
19 0.0%
10 0.0%
11 0.1%
12 8.2%
13 28.8%
14 32.8%
15 21.3%
16 7.1%
17 1.4%
18 0.2%
19 0.0%
3 0.0%
4 0.0%
5 0.1%
6 1.0%
7 4.4%
8 13.8%
9 27.2%
10 31.2%
11 17.9%
12 3.5%
13 0.8%
14 0.1%
UMN 2 0.0%
3 0.3%
4 2.1%
5 7.5%
6 19.3%
7 25.8%
8 15.3%
9 10.1%
10 8.3%
11 6.0%
12 3.7%
13 1.6%
14 0.1%
15 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.1%
9 1.0%
10 7.0%
11 20.6%
12 37.8%
13 30.8%
14 2.7%
15 0.1%
2 0.0%
3 0.4%
4 2.3%
5 8.1%
6 21.0%
7 28.0%
8 16.6%
9 10.7%
10 7.8%
11 4.1%
12 1.1%
13 0.0%
Maine 2 0.0%
3 0.0%
4 0.1%
5 0.5%
6 2.1%
7 5.5%
8 11.7%
9 16.1%
10 14.4%
11 11.6%
12 10.3%
13 8.7%
14 9.2%
15 5.7%
16 3.0%
17 0.9%
18 0.2%
19 0.0%
20 0.0%
21 0.0%
11 0.2%
12 3.7%
13 15.8%
14 32.6%
15 27.6%
16 14.6%
17 4.5%
18 1.0%
19 0.1%
20 0.0%
21 0.0%
2 0.0%
3 0.0%
4 0.1%
5 0.9%
6 3.6%
7 9.6%
8 20.4%
9 28.0%
10 23.1%
11 10.6%
12 3.2%
13 0.5%
Denver 1 0.0%
2 0.0%
3 0.1%
4 0.5%
5 1.3%
6 3.2%
7 6.5%
8 11.9%
9 17.6%
10 19.3%
11 16.3%
12 11.9%
13 7.1%
14 2.4%
15 1.3%
16 0.5%
17 0.1%
9 0.0%
10 1.7%
11 12.3%
12 27.8%
13 28.7%
14 16.0%
15 9.3%
16 3.7%
17 0.5%
1 0.0%
2 0.0%
3 0.1%
4 0.7%
5 1.9%
6 4.6%
7 9.5%
8 17.2%
9 25.2%
10 25.2%
11 13.5%
12 2.1%
UND 10 0.0%
11 0.2%
12 3.5%
13 16.5%
14 34.3%
15 29.1%
16 13.6%
17 2.8%
n/a n/a
Notre Dame 8 0.0%
9 0.0%
10 0.1%
11 1.2%
12 4.9%
13 8.7%
14 9.6%
15 7.9%
16 6.3%
17 10.2%
18 20.9%
19 25.7%
20 4.4%
21 0.1%
15 0.0%
16 0.2%
17 5.2%
18 25.1%
19 56.5%
20 12.6%
21 0.4%
8 0.0%
9 0.0%
10 0.4%
11 3.2%
12 13.4%
13 23.9%
14 26.4%
15 21.0%
16 10.6%
17 1.0%
Western Michigan 11 0.1%
12 0.7%
13 5.1%
14 12.6%
15 16.1%
16 14.6%
17 8.7%
18 5.0%
19 14.3%
20 20.7%
21 2.2%
22 0.0%
17 0.0%
18 4.3%
19 28.1%
20 59.2%
21 8.3%
22 0.1%
11 0.1%
12 1.2%
13 9.0%
14 22.0%
15 28.3%
16 25.3%
17 13.3%
18 0.7%
19 0.0%
Northern Michigan 13 0.3%
14 4.4%
15 20.8%
16 31.5%
17 25.8%
18 13.8%
19 3.4%
20 0.1%
21 0.0%
n/a n/a
Merrimack 6 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.1%
9 1.0%
10 4.2%
11 9.9%
12 11.8%
13 10.3%
14 5.0%
15 3.0%
16 7.4%
17 14.8%
18 16.3%
19 11.6%
20 3.8%
21 0.8%
22 0.1%
23 0.0%
14 0.0%
15 0.2%
16 2.2%
17 12.4%
18 34.1%
19 35.6%
20 12.4%
21 2.8%
22 0.3%
23 0.0%
6 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.3%
9 2.3%
10 9.8%
11 23.2%
12 27.7%
13 24.0%
14 10.9%
15 1.9%
16 0.0%
Union 2 0.0%
3 0.3%
4 1.3%
5 4.3%
6 11.0%
7 21.7%
8 24.7%
9 14.9%
10 10.1%
11 6.6%
12 3.7%
13 1.1%
14 0.1%
15 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.6%
9 4.4%
10 13.5%
11 28.6%
12 32.8%
13 16.7%
14 3.1%
15 0.4%
2 0.0%
3 0.3%
4 1.5%
5 4.8%
6 12.2%
7 24.1%
8 27.2%
9 15.8%
10 9.2%
11 3.9%
12 0.8%
13 0.0%
14 0.0%
Lake Superior 14 0.0%
15 0.5%
16 4.1%
17 12.2%
18 15.7%
19 12.4%
20 11.1%
21 11.6%
22 14.4%
23 11.7%
24 5.0%
25 1.2%
26 0.1%
18 0.0%
19 0.1%
20 1.8%
21 10.4%
22 34.1%
23 34.1%
24 15.3%
25 3.8%
26 0.4%
14 0.0%
15 1.1%
16 9.6%
17 28.3%
18 36.0%
19 20.4%
20 3.8%
21 0.8%
22 0.1%
23 0.0%
Ohio State 18 0.3%
19 6.6%
20 24.0%
21 33.4%
22 24.4%
23 9.9%
24 1.5%
25 0.1%
n/a n/a
CC 13 0.0%
14 0.3%
15 3.5%
16 11.7%
17 18.6%
18 21.8%
19 17.4%
20 6.9%
21 10.2%
22 6.6%
23 2.3%
24 0.7%
25 0.1%
18 0.7%
19 4.3%
20 17.2%
21 33.5%
22 27.4%
23 11.9%
24 4.3%
25 0.7%
13 0.0%
14 0.4%
15 5.0%
16 16.7%
17 26.6%
18 30.4%
19 20.2%
20 0.7%
21 0.0%
Cornell 4 0.0%
5 0.0%
6 0.1%
7 0.4%
8 1.8%
9 5.0%
10 10.5%
11 17.2%
12 21.1%
13 13.7%
14 7.4%
15 4.5%
16 5.3%
17 5.6%
18 5.0%
19 2.3%
20 0.1%
13 0.0%
14 0.5%
15 4.9%
16 16.0%
17 27.6%
18 31.7%
19 18.4%
20 0.8%
4 0.0%
5 0.0%
6 0.1%
7 0.5%
8 2.3%
9 6.4%
10 13.6%
11 22.1%
12 27.2%
13 17.2%
14 8.3%
15 1.9%
16 0.3%
17 0.0%
Northeastern 23 0.0%
24 0.1%
25 1.7%
26 9.1%
27 22.4%
28 29.7%
29 23.3%
30 10.5%
31 2.7%
32 0.5%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%
n/a n/a
SCSU 19 0.0%
20 0.2%
21 2.2%
22 9.5%
23 14.8%
24 14.4%
25 12.6%
26 7.3%
27 5.3%
28 6.6%
29 5.8%
30 5.3%
31 6.1%
32 4.7%
33 1.5%
34 0.1%
Non-TUC 3.6%
27 0.0%
28 0.2%
29 2.5%
30 13.1%
31 30.4%
32 25.6%
33 8.1%
34 0.6%
Non-TUC 19.6%
19 0.0%
20 0.4%
21 3.6%
22 15.7%
23 24.5%
24 23.8%
25 20.6%
26 9.7%
27 1.7%
28 0.0%
Bemidji State 20 0.0%
21 0.4%
22 4.1%
23 23.2%
24 35.9%
25 26.2%
26 9.9%
27 0.3%
28 0.0%
n/a n/a
UW 17 0.0%
18 0.3%
19 2.8%
20 9.0%
21 8.7%
22 7.0%
23 5.6%
24 4.5%
25 8.3%
26 14.1%
27 13.1%
28 11.1%
29 9.1%
30 4.8%
31 1.3%
32 0.2%
33 0.0%
34 0.0%
22 0.1%
23 0.6%
24 1.2%
25 2.6%
26 11.0%
27 20.0%
28 25.8%
29 22.8%
30 12.2%
31 3.2%
32 0.4%
33 0.0%
34 0.0%
17 0.0%
18 1.0%
19 8.9%
20 29.1%
21 27.1%
22 19.1%
23 10.8%
24 3.5%
25 0.4%
26 0.0%
Massachusetts 20 0.0%
21 0.0%
22 0.2%
23 0.6%
24 1.1%
25 2.7%
26 4.4%
27 3.4%
28 2.5%
29 4.9%
30 9.8%
31 7.9%
32 2.7%
33 0.7%
34 0.1%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 59.1%
Non-TUC 100.0% 20 0.0%
21 0.2%
22 1.4%
23 4.1%
24 8.1%
25 19.8%
26 32.3%
27 23.3%
28 8.7%
29 1.8%
30 0.3%
31 0.0%
32 0.0%
New Hampshire 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.8%
26 3.6%
27 6.1%
28 5.4%
29 3.6%
30 2.7%
31 3.1%
32 3.0%
33 0.7%
34 0.0%
Non-TUC 70.8%
Non-TUC 100.0% 23 0.0%
24 0.2%
25 3.7%
26 16.6%
27 28.0%
28 24.9%
29 15.5%
30 7.7%
31 2.6%
32 0.6%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%
Nebraska-Omaha 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.2%
26 0.9%
27 2.7%
28 4.7%
29 7.8%
30 7.2%
31 7.1%
32 5.8%
33 2.5%
34 0.5%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 60.6%
Non-TUC 100.0% 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.4%
26 2.4%
27 6.7%
28 11.9%
29 19.7%
30 18.2%
31 17.9%
32 14.7%
33 6.2%
34 1.2%
35 0.1%
Non-TUC 0.5%
Harvard 17 0.0%
18 0.2%
19 2.0%
20 10.2%
21 10.3%
22 10.9%
23 11.4%
24 12.6%
25 9.8%
26 7.6%
27 6.0%
28 2.7%
29 2.6%
30 5.6%
31 5.8%
32 2.2%
33 0.2%
34 0.0%
26 0.0%
27 0.1%
28 2.0%
29 13.7%
30 34.3%
31 35.7%
32 13.3%
33 0.9%
34 0.0%
17 0.0%
18 0.2%
19 3.1%
20 15.9%
21 16.1%
22 17.0%
23 17.7%
24 18.5%
25 10.0%
26 1.5%
27 0.0%
Alaska Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Providence Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
MTech Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Quinnipiac 16 0.0%
17 0.1%
18 0.5%
19 1.2%
20 4.0%
21 6.5%
22 10.2%
23 11.4%
24 10.6%
25 9.3%
26 9.7%
27 10.6%
28 9.6%
29 8.9%
30 5.2%
31 1.7%
32 0.5%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%
24 0.1%
25 1.1%
26 3.8%
27 9.9%
28 21.9%
29 32.9%
30 20.8%
31 6.9%
32 2.0%
33 0.4%
34 0.0%
16 0.0%
17 0.1%
18 1.0%
19 2.5%
20 8.0%
21 12.9%
22 20.3%
23 22.6%
24 20.1%
25 11.0%
26 1.5%
27 0.0%
Colgate 18 0.0%
19 0.3%
20 5.6%
21 13.5%
22 12.6%
23 8.7%
24 6.6%
25 4.6%
26 4.2%
27 6.1%
28 7.8%
29 7.1%
30 9.1%
31 8.8%
32 3.5%
33 0.8%
34 0.1%
Non-TUC 0.7%
25 0.0%
26 0.1%
27 0.7%
28 3.4%
29 13.0%
30 29.1%
31 33.6%
32 13.8%
33 3.1%
34 0.2%
Non-TUC 2.9%
18 0.0%
19 0.6%
20 11.2%
21 27.1%
22 25.2%
23 17.1%
24 12.0%
25 6.0%
26 0.6%
27 0.2%
28 0.0%
Bowling Green Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Yale 23 0.0%
24 0.2%
25 1.4%
26 3.4%
27 4.6%
28 3.9%
29 4.0%
30 5.5%
31 6.4%
32 4.1%
33 1.6%
34 0.5%
35 0.1%
Non-TUC 64.3%
Non-TUC 100.0% 23 0.1%
24 0.7%
25 3.8%
26 9.5%
27 12.9%
28 11.0%
29 11.2%
30 15.5%
31 17.9%
32 11.4%
33 4.5%
34 1.3%
35 0.1%
Dartmouth Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
St. Lawrence Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Mankato Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Clarkson Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Air Force 22 0.0%
23 0.4%
24 6.9%
25 20.9%
26 23.8%
27 14.3%
28 6.1%
29 2.5%
30 0.7%
31 0.5%
32 0.7%
33 0.5%
34 0.2%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 22.5%
Non-TUC 100.0% 22 0.0%
23 0.5%
24 9.1%
25 27.7%
26 31.6%
27 19.0%
28 8.0%
29 3.3%
30 0.7%
31 0.0%
RIT 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.2%
26 1.4%
27 3.8%
28 6.0%
29 11.1%
30 16.2%
31 13.8%
32 11.4%
33 6.0%
34 1.6%
35 0.2%
Non-TUC 28.6%
Non-TUC 100.0% 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.2%
26 1.9%
27 5.2%
28 8.4%
29 15.5%
30 22.6%
31 19.3%
32 15.9%
33 8.3%
34 2.3%
35 0.3%
Non-TUC 0.0%
Niagara 24 0.0%
25 0.1%
26 0.4%
27 1.4%
28 3.9%
29 8.8%
30 13.0%
31 15.2%
32 11.6%
33 5.9%
34 1.4%
35 0.1%
Non-TUC 38.3%
Non-TUC 100.0% 24 0.0%
25 0.1%
26 0.7%
27 2.3%
28 6.3%
29 14.2%
30 21.0%
31 24.6%
32 18.7%
33 9.5%
34 2.3%
35 0.2%
Non-TUC 0.0%
AA Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Princeton Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Rensselaer Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Holy Cross Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Robert Morris Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Vermont Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Brown Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Bentley Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Connecticut Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Alabama-Huntsville Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
American Int’l Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Army Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Sacred Heart Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a

This is probably the last time this season I’ll publish the entire NCAA. Next week I’ll pare it down to those within sight of making the NCAA tournament.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations.

Resources