I did some number-crunching on the remaining games and came up with the following possible PairWise Ranking (PWR) finishes after next weekend’s conference tournaments. The PWR mimics the NCAA tournament selection process, so teams above 13-14 are quite likely to make the NCAA tournament (depending on how many autobids go to teams that otherwise would not have received a bid). More information on the tournament selection process is available in CHN’s tournament primer.
UND PWR Possibilities
The Sioux, currently #2 in the PairWise Rankings, have limited potential to move. It appears that UND will finish with either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd overall PWR. Those results are heavily dependent on Yale, UND’s own performance, Boston College, and Merrimack. In a couple low probability situations other factors come into play, but for the most part those are the teams to watch.
- If Yale defeats Colgate, UND can only finish from #2 to #3…
- …and if UND wins the Final Five, the Sioux will be #2 overall.
- …and if BC loses to Northeastern, the Sioux will be #2 overall.
- …and if BC defeats Northeastern and UND loses a Final Five game, about 1/2 the scenarios result in UND finishing #3 overall (the outcome of BC’s remaining game is very important, but not definitive).
- If Yale loses to Colgate, UND can finish from #1 to #3…
- …and if UND wins the Final Five, about 99% of scenarios result in UND being #1 overall.
- …and Merrimack and BC losing become associated with high finishes for UND…
- …and if both lose their opening game, UND finishes #1 in 95-98% of scenarios (#2 otherwise).
- …and if both win their opening game, UND finishes #1 if they win the Final Five, finishes #3 over 99% of the time otherwise (#2 possible but pretty unlikely).
Top 20 PWR Possibilities
Who’s making the NCAA tournament?
- The top 9 seem a lock: Yale, North Dakota, Boston College, Michigan, Miami, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Merrimack, Union
- The next 3 could miss with the wrong loss(es): Notre Dame, New Hampshire, Western Michigan
- 7 of the next 8 are still alive, but need help outside their control (or to win an autobid): Nebraska-Omaha, Colorado College, Dartmouth, Rennselaer, Boston University, Maine, Alaska Anchorage
- Minnesota seems out
What will the final PWR be?
| Team | PWR | Overall | Lose all remaining | Win all remaining | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possible Final PWR |
Likely (>1%) Final PWR |
Possible Final PWR |
Likely (>1%) Final PWR |
Possible Final PWR |
Likely (>1%) Final PWR |
||
| Yale | 1 | 1 to 4 | 1 to 3 | 1 to 4 | 1 to 3 | 1 | 1 |
| North Dakota | 2 | 1 to 3 | 1 to 3 | 1 to 3 | 1 to 3 | 1 to 2 | 1 to 2 |
| Boston College | 3 | 1 to 4 | 1 to 4 | 1 to 4 | 1 to 4 | 1 to 3 | 1 to 3 |
| Michigan | 4 | 2 to 11 | 3 to 11 | 6 to 11 | 6 to 11 | 2 to 5 | 3 to 5 |
| Miami | 5 | 3 to 11 | 3 to 11 | 5 to 11 | 6 to 11 | 3 to 4 | 3 to 4 |
| Denver | 6 | 4 to 11 | 4 to 9 | 5 to 11 | 5 to 9 | 4 to 6 | 4 to 6 |
| Minnesota-Duluth | 7 | 4 to 11 | 4 to 11 | 7 to 11 | 8 to 11 | 4 to 6 | 4 to 6 |
| Merrimack | 8 | 4 to 11 | 4 to 11 | 6 to 11 | 7 to 11 | 4 to 6 | 4 to 6 |
| Union | 9 | 5 to 11 | 6 to 10 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Notre Dame | 10 | 4 to 15 | 4 to 14 | 10 to 15 | 10 to 14 | 4 to 8 | 4 to 8 |
| New Hampshire | 11 | 4 to 15 | 5 to 14 | 10 to 15 | 10 to 14 | 4 to 11 | 5 to 11 |
| Western Michigan | 12 | 10 to 19 | 10 to 19 | 13 to 19 | 14 to 19 | 10 to 13 | 10 to 13 |
| Nebraska-Omaha | 13 | 12 to 16 | 12 to 16 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Colorado College | 14 | 10 to 19 | 10 to 18 | 12 to 19 | 15 to 18 | 10 to 15 | 10 to 15 |
| Dartmouth | 15 | 10 to 22 | 11 to 21 | 18 to 22 | 18 to 21 | 10 to 15 | 11 to 14 |
| Rensselaer | 16 | 10 to 19 | 11 to 16 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Boston University | 17 | 13 to 19 | 14 to 18 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Maine | 18 | 13 to 21 | 15 to 19 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Minnesota | 19 | 17 to 21 | 18 to 20 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alaska Anchorage | 20 | 12 to 23 | 12 to 22 | 19 to 23 | 19 to 22 | 12 to 16 | 12 to 16 |
| St. Cloud State | 21 | 19 to 26 | 20 to 24 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alaska | 22 | 22 to 28 | 22 to 26 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
PWR rankings assume RPI as a tie-breaker.
Notes
Due to the unusually massive volume of data in this post and timeliness of this information, I didn’t get to do nearly as much quality control and verification as I normally would like. If you see any obvious transcription errors, or have found scenarios that fall outside these boundaries, let me know in the comments!
Also, if there are outcomes for which you’d like to scenario, just let me know and I’ll give you the game results that you can pop into the You Are The Committee calculators.
Maybe they should recruit my nephew #21 STA…just saying…
Someone asked via email how UNO could be left out.
The share of scenarios that have UNO finish with each PWR ranking are:
#12 4%
#13 31%
#14 33%
#15 26%
#16 5%
The things that seem to hurt UNO the most, pushing them to the lower rankings, are: CC winning, Western Michigan winning, and Dartmouth winning.
If UNO finishes #16, they’re out (because the AHA autoqualifier will make the tournament, so only the top 15 in PWR would stand a chance of an at-large bid). If UNO finishes #15, they need none of the other conferences to be won by a team that won’t be in the top 16 (e.g. Bemidji St, Northeastern, or Cornell/Colgate). If UNO finishes #14, they need zero or one of the other conferences to be won by a team not in the top 16, etc…
Here’s a bracket (tested on USCHO) that has the minimum one autobid from outside the top 16, but UNO at #16 in the PWR so left out:
Atlantic Hockey
* Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Air Force
* Semifinal #1: Connecticut defeats RIT
* Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut
CCHA
* Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Miami
* Semifinal #1: Western Michigan defeats Michigan
* Championship game: Western Michigan defeats Notre Dame
* Consolation game: Miami defeats Michigan
ECAC
* Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Cornell
* Semifinal #1: Colgate defeats Yale
* Championship game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate
* Consolation game: Cornell defeats Yale
Hockey East
* Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Merrimack
* Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Northeastern
* Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire
WCHA
* Play-in #2: Bemidji State defeats Minnesota-Duluth
* Play-in #1: Colorado College defeats Alaska-Anchorage
* Semifinal #2: Bemidji State defeats Denver
* Semifinal #1: Colorado College defeats North Dakota
* Championship game: Colorado College defeats Bemidji State
Thanks to RHamilton on USCHO who pointed out that I wasn’t allowing for ties in the consolation games. Ties could enable UNH to climb as high as #4 and Maine to fall as low as #21. The table has been updated to that effect.