Published by Jim Dahl on 29 Jan 2009 at 10:30 am
Though the Sioux continue to complicate things with ties, I’m again going to declare reasonable success in last week’s prediction. A split was predicted to most likely land UND in the 14-17 range and a sweep in the 11-14 range. 3 points on the weekend left UND at 14-15.
So, without further ado, this week’s forecast:
Help for those who don’t like reading graphs:
Sioux sweep: 67% chance of landing at #12 or #13, 94% chance of landing between #11-#14.
Split: 77% chance of landing #14 or #15
Sioux swept: 60% chance of landing #17 or #18, 91% chance of landing between #16-#19.
Who else to cheer for?
Of teams playing just 1 game:
Vermont win over New Hampshire gives UND an average rise of .472
Of teams playing 2 games:
A Bemidji St sweep over Bob Morris gives UND an average rise of .607 (a single win gives UND a rise of .277)
An Alaska sweep over Ohio State gives UND an average rise of .518 (a single win gives UND a rise of .247)
End of season outlook
Last but not least, there’s been a lot of speculation how many games UND needs to win to make the tournament. For the regular season only, here’s UND likely PWR ranking based on how many of its remaining games it wins. To be comfortably ranked higher than 13 would require winning 80%, though it’s a tossup at 60%, and still possible at 50%.