Sioux Sports Talk

For the second year in a row, more than a dozen WCHA players gave up their remaining eligibility for pro contracts. Headlining this list of early departures are North Dakota’s T.J. Oshie (18-27-45 last season), St. Cloud State’s Andreas Nodl (18-26-44), Wisconsin’s Kyle Turris (11-24-35), Minnesota’s Blake Wheeler (15-20-35), and Michigan Tech’s Michael-Lee Teslak (.918 save percentage, 2.20 goals-against average).

Before I reveal my first three predictions for this year, let’s take a look at last season….

WCHA 2007-08 Final Standings

Team………………………..Record….Points
Colorado College……….21-6-1…..43
North Dakota……………..18-7-3…..39
Denver………………………16-11-1…..33
St. Cloud State………..12-12-4…..28
MSU-Mankato………….12-12-4……28
Wisconsin………………..11-12-5…..27
Minnesota………………….9-12-7…..25
Minnesota-Duluth……..9-14-5…..24
Michigan Tech……………9-15-4…..22
Alaska-Anchorage……..3-19-6….12

And here are three teams that I believe will certainly be on the road for the first round of the WCHA playoffs…

#10 University of Alaska-Anchorage Seawolves
Last year’s record: 3-19-6 (10th)
Last year’s statistics: 1.93 goals scored/game (10th), 3.18 goals allowed/game (10th)
Key returning players: Junior F Paul Crowder (7-16-23), Junior F Josh Lunden (14-13-27), Junior F Kevin Clark (7-16-23), Senior D Mat Robinson (3-10-13), Junior G Jon Olthuis (6-17-8, 2.89, .886)
Early departures: None
Key graduation losses: F Peter Cartwright (3-14-17), D Luke Beaverson (1-2-3)
The question marks: Can Alaska-Anchorage climb out of the cellar? And how does head coach Dave Shyiak receive a four-year extension on his contract after posting a 26-69-14 (.303) record in his first three seasons?
The bottom line: The Seawolves only lost five players to graduation and return almost 80 percent of their scoring from 07-08. It might take 8 wins and a handful of ties to secure 9th place in the WCHA, but this team could do it.

#9 Michigan Tech University Huskies
Last year’s record: 9-15-4 (9th)
Last year’s statistics: 1.96 goals scored/game (8th), 2.75 goals allowed/game (9th)
Key returning players: Sophomore F Eric Kattelus (2-8-10), Senior D Geoff Kinrade (5-14-19), Junior D Drew Dobson (2-15-17), Senior G Rob Nolan (6-9-1, 2.66 GAA, .899 SV)
Early departure: Goaltender Michael-Lee Teslak (8-11-4, 2.20 GAA, .919 SV)
Key graduation losses: F Peter Rouleau (12-17-29), F Tyler Shelast (16-10-26), F Jimmy Kerr (9-10-19)
The question marks: Can Rob Nolan handle the load? How many games can the Huskies win 2-1?
The bottom line: This will be the lowest scoring team in the league. If Michigan Tech gets good goaltending from Nolan and can score on the power play, they can compete. Otherwise, it will be a long year in Houghton.

#8 University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs
Last year’s record: 9-14-5 (8th)
Last year’s statistics: 1.96 goals scored/game (8th), 2.71 goals allowed/game (8th)
Key returning players: Senior F MacGregor Sharp (7-10-17), Senior F Michael Gergen (6-7-13), Senior F Nick Kemp (7-8-15), Senior D Josh Meyers (6-8-14, 110 PIM), Junior G Alex Stalock (13-17-6, 2.35 GAA, .914 SV)
Early departure: D Jason Garrison (5-9-14) leaves after three seasons with the Bulldogs.
Key graduation loss: F Matt McKnight (6-10-16)
The question marks: What happened to the Bulldogs at the end of last season? Duluth won only 4 of its final 18 conference games last season, and was shut out in 4 of its last 8 overall. How many years can head coach Scott Sandelin (four straight losing seasons and six out of eight overall) be on the hot seat before he gets burned?
The bottom line: The recipe for success in Duluth is consistency. Otherwise, the Bulldogs might have a new head coach for 2009-10.

Click here for part two of my WCHA season preview, in which I predict which teams will finish in 4th-7th place and battle it out for home ice in the playoffs. Check back later for part three, detailing the top three teams in the conference. As always, I welcome your questions and comments.

The 2008-09 WCHA Coaches’ Poll is out, and if you’re interested in that you can go view it at the Herald or talk about it on the message board.

The release got me wondering how useful the poll is. Do the coaches make better picks than last year’s final standings? Do the coaches even make better picks than random draw? This post uses some light stats, but I’ll point out the important numbers.

To measure how well the coaches did, I compared their predictions to the actual outcomes (the precise measurement is the sum of the squares of the differences between outcomes and predictions). As a point of comparison, I also compared the previous years’ standings to the actual outcomes, to see if the coaches’ predictions were an improvement over those.

Coaches’ polls’ differences from outcomes vs. previous years’ differences from outcomes (lower numbers are better).

Year	Sum Sq. Diff Coaches Poll	Sum Sq. Diff Previous Year
2007	65	84
2006	52	43
2005	21	48
2004	86	89
2003	62	146
Avg	57.2	82

Looks good for the coaches. In only one of the five years was the coaches’ poll a worse predictor than the previous year’s final standings.

Already with some faith in the coaches’ picks, I also compared them to the average performance of random picks. To do that, I performed 200,000 simulations of random picks to get the shape of their performance. Using the same measure as above, throwing darts would achieve the following error:

Mean	Std. Dev
175	55.1

Note that the 175 mean squared error for random picks is much bigger than either the 57 the coaches achieved over 5 years or the 82 the previous years’ outcomes achieved. (The coaches’ poll is 2.1 standard deviations better than random picks, the previous years’ outcomes 1.7 standard deviations better). From that, we can conclude that both the previous years’ final standings and the coaches’ poll contain useful information that provides a more accurate prediction than a random draw.

Here’s the raw data:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pDN6PFrUpi3c_P6VEQ353Kw

This is the second of three Fighting Sioux All-Decade teams. Click here for the 1980s team. Check back later for the All-Decade team from the 2000s.

I came up with this list based on statistics, honors, and championships. More consideration was given to players who played their entire career in the 1990s.

Forwards:
Dixon Ward-Greg Johnson-Russ Romaniuk
David Hoogsteen-Jeff Panzer-Jay Panzer
Jason Blake-Adam Calder-Lee Goren
Jeff McLean-Jason Ulmer-Teeder Wynne

Landon Wilson, Darcy Mitani, Kevin Hoogsteen, and Marty Schriner are the reserve forwards.

Defensemen:
Curtis Murphy-Brad Williamson
Nick Naumenko-Jason Herter
Dane Litke-Mike Commodore

Brad Bombardir and Trevor Hammer are the reserve defensemen.

Goaltender:
Karl Goehring

Toby Kvalevog and Aaron Schweitzer are the reserve goaltenders.

This is the type of list that (hopefully) will spark some debate. Feel free to chime in with your own list or take me to task for a glaring omission.

This is the first of three Fighting Sioux All-Decade teams. Click here for the 1990s team. Check back later for the 2000s All-Decade Team.

I came up with this list based on statistics, honors, and championships. More consideration was given to players who played their entire career in the 1980s.

Forwards:
Steve Johnson-Tony Hrkac-Bob Joyce
Phil Sykes-Mark Taylor-Doug Smail
Cary Eades-Perry Berezan-Jim Archibald
Troy Murray-Lee Davidson-Chris Jensen

Neil Eisenhut, Dave Tippett, and Brian Williams are the reserve forwards.

Defensemen:
James Patrick-Craig Ludwig
Ian Kidd-Russ Parent
Scott Sandelin-Marc Chorney

Rick Zombo and Howard Walker are the reserve defensemen.

Goaltender:
Ed Belfour

Jon Casey and Darren Jensen are the backup goaltenders.

This is the type of list that (hopefully) will spark some debate. Feel free to chime in with your own list or take me to task for a glaring omission.

As expected, Kevin Porter won the Hobey Baker Memorial Award for 2007-2008.  The senior forward tallied 33 goals and 30 assists in 43 games for the Michigan Wolverines this season and led his team to the Frozen Four.

Porter joins Brendan Morrison (1997 recipient) as the only two Hobey winners in Michigan history.

The other two 2008 Hobey Hat Trick finalists were Ryan Jones of Miami and Nathan Gerbe of Boston College.

Porter finished his career at Michigan with 85 goals and 98 assists for 183 points in 162 games.

Here’s my top ten list of games, stories, and memorable moments from this year’s North Dakota Fighting Sioux hockey team.  Follow the highlighted links to articles and video clips from this season.

Number 10: The Pact

This year started out with so much more promise because T.J. Oshie, Taylor Chorney, Joe Finley, and reiging Hobey Baker winner Ryan Duncan all turned down pro contracts and returned for their junior seasons. The four returning players combined for 43 goals and 81 assists this season, 36 percent of North Dakota’s scoring for the year. Check out Patrick C. Miller’s great story, “The NHL Can Wait“.

Number 9: The Hall of Fame Game

The defending national champion Michigan State Spartans came to Ralph Engelstad Arena in a much-anticipated matchup, and North Dakota came to play. The Sioux scored early and often, as six UND players scored in a 6-0 rout. Senior goaltender Jean-Philippe Lamoureux looked sharp, turning aside all 23 shots he faced after struggling in exhibition action against Manitoba (2 goals on 2 shots). Lamoureux’s shutout would be one of four in his first five games of the season.

Number 8: The Fog

In a game called after two periods due to poor ice conditions, North Dakota and Boston College skated to a 0-0 tie at Conte Forum. If only the first period of the Frozen Four semifinal could have counted as the completion of this game from October 19th…

Number 7: The Donnybrook

After losing 4-0 on Friday night in Madison despite peppering Badger goaltender Shane Connelly with 43 shots, the Sioux came out firing in Saturday’s rematch. The key goal was Oshie’s game-winner with three seconds remaining in the first period, but this tilt will be remembered for the line brawl which came with four minutes remaining in the hockey game. Oh, and by the way, North Dakota won, 3-1.

Number 6: The Streak

After falling to St. Cloud State on January 4, 2008, North Dakota embarked on an 18-game unbeaten streak (15-0-3). This run put them in a position to capture a #1 seed in the national tournament (see #3, below). The Fighting Sioux lost only four games in 2008 after finishing 2007 at 9-7-1.

Number 5: The Trupper

February 1, 2008. North Dakota and Minnesota were locked in yet another epic battle. The teams traded first period goals and then went scoreless for the final 52 minutes of regulation. Enter Evan Trupp. The freshman from Anchorage, Alaska scored a spectacular game-winner at 2:23 of the overtime and North Dakota prevailed, 2-1. For the season, Trupp had five game-winners and his scoring punch was sorely missed down the stretch after he went out with a broken leg.

Number 4: The Comeback at the Ralph

Someone should tell the Denver Pioneers that second periods last twenty minutes, not just nineteen. The Pios held a comfortable 4-1 lead with but sixty seconds to go in the middle frame, but the Sioux would not go quietly into the locker room. UND scored not one but two late goals, drawing to within one on Andrew Kozek’s nice feed to Ryan Duncan. Kozek would add two goals in the third to complete his hat trick (check out the three goals here, here, and here) and the single greatest comeback ever witnessed at the new Ralph Engelstad Arena. Emotions from this game spilled over into Saturday’s contest, as the two teams scuffled after the second period. North Dakota would sweep the series and move into second place in the WCHA.

Number 3: The Battle for a #1 Seed

This is the reason that the WCHA teams play for third place at the Final Five (well, this AND money). North Dakota and Colorado College went head to head in a showdown that many felt would take place in the championship game. In any event, the Fighting Sioux put together their most complete performance in a month and locked up the top seed at the Midwest Regional in Madison, Wisconsin. North Dakota was blistering on the power play, scoring three times in seven chances against a very good Tiger penalty kill. Colorado College, meanwhile, limped into the West Regional after losing both games at the Final Five and fell to Michigan State 3-1 in its NCAA tournament opener.

Number 2: The Hobey Hopefuls

After Ryan Duncan won the Hobey Baker award last season (becoming just the second Sioux player to capture the elusive trophy), junior forward T.J. Oshie and senior goaltender Jean-Philippe Lamoureux were named as two of the top ten finalists. Oshie didn’t have the statistical season of some of the other candidates (18 goals and 27 assists put him in twelfth place nationally), but his complete game resonated with the voters. Oshie also battled through injuries for much of the season.

Lamoureux put up staggering numbers, leading the nation in goals-against average, save percentage, and shutouts while playing the country’s most difficult schedule. In my opinion, JPL deserved to be in the Hobey Hat Trick. He was the best at his position, played the toughest competition, and brought his team to the Frozen Four.

Number 1: The Comeback at the Kohl Center

This will go down in the annals of Fighting Sioux hockey history as one of those “I remember where I was when….” games. North Dakota survived (yes, survived) the first two periods of hockey against the hometown Badgers in the Midwest Regional Final. UND was lucky to be down only 2-0 (thank you, Lamoureux, and your trusty sidekicks, the pipes). And then the captain did what captains do: they leave it all on the ice. Rylan Kaip netted just his eighth goal of the season at 3:33 of the third (and how perfect is that?), and 47 seconds later, Ryan Duncan took a brilliant pass from T.J. Oshie and tied the game at two. Andrew Kozek completed the UND comback at 1:47 of the overtime, and North Dakota was headed to Denver.

So there you have it – my top ten from 2007-08. It was a wild ride and one I wouldn’t have missed for anything.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions as well as items you feel should be included on this list.

The Eagles outworked, outhit, and outhustled North Dakota for the majority of the hockey game and capitalized on several scoring chances in the first period, effectively putting the game out of reach after twenty minutes of play.

Team speed was definitely a factor in this contest, as Boston College created offensive opportunities and took away time and space defensively by being the quicker, more explosive team.

As BC’s forwards applied continuous pressure, North Dakota struggled to break the puck out of its own end and hold the puck in the zone at the offensive blue line. The Fighting Sioux exhibited precious little puck poise in this game; that is to say, UND as a team made poor decisions all over the ice and did not protect the puck. Consequently, Boston College capitalized on turnovers, mistakes, and breakdowns and buried their chances, particularly in the first period.

One key moment in the hockey game occurred at the 13:00 mark of the opening period. North Dakota trailed 1-0 but found itself on the power play. Boston College junior (and Hobey Baker Hat Trick finalist) Nathan Gerbe forced a turnover at the blue line and raced in on Jean-Philippe Lamoureux, beating the senior netminder for a short-handed tally. Less than two minutes later, Gerbe scored again with the teams skating 4 on 4. The scoreboard read 3-0, and the rout was on.

“When we went down 2-0, I thought we were fine,” said North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol. “Even after the third goal we thought on the bench that things would be okay, but we didn’t get out of the period that way. Once we were down four, that was a little too big of a hill to climb.”

UND didn’t get out of the first period with a three goal deficit because the Eagles’ relentless attack wouldn’t let them. Dan Bertram sent a rocket past Lamoureux with 15 seconds remaining in the opening frame, and North Dakota never recovered.

A second key moment in the game occurred behind the play, away from the eyes of the officials. Eagles junior forward Andrew Orpik went knee-to-knee on UND defenseman Taylor Chorney less than three minutes into the second period, and Chorney would not return to the game. No penalty was called on the play.

I’m not suggesting that a power play at that moment would have changed the outcome. The bigger impact was Taylor Chorney’s absence from the lineup. Freshman blueliner Jake Marto filled Chorney’s role admirably, and scored the lone Sioux goal, but North Dakota missed Taylor Chorney’s speed and puck-handling ability for the final 37 minutes of the game.

With the loss, North Dakota’s season ends at 28-11-4. The senior class of Robbie Bina, Rylan Kaip, Jean-Philippe Lamoureux, and Kyle Radke have played their last game in the green and white. Sioux fans are left wondering whether Taylor Chorney, Ryan Duncan, Joe Finley, Andrew Kozek, T.J. Oshie, and Chris VandeVelde will be back for another run at the title in 2009.

Thank you once again for supporting the SiouxSports.com blog this season. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back throughout the off-season for player news, features, and commentary.