Sioux Sports Talk

North Dakota finds itself in an unfamiliar situation after dropping both games at the Icebreaker (Boston, MA).  Boston University blew out UND 5-1 in the opener, and, despite a better effort in Saturday afternoon’s contest against UMass, the Fighting Sioux lost 3-2 and left Boston with a record of 0-2.

Jim Dahl does a great job of discussing the possible playoff implications of these early season losses, and I encourage you to check out that article here.

I’m going to dive in to some other issues that need to be addressed as we move forward into conference play this weekend….

The first area of focus is goaltending.  The situation is muddier than ever, with neither Eidsness nor Walski distinguishing himself in Boston.  Freshman Brad Eidsness saw more action (33 shots) and allowed five goals (four at even strength and one 4 on 4).  Senior Aaron Walski faced only 16 shots and allowed three goals, all of the goal-mouth/tap-in variety.  Two of Walski’s three goals allowed came while the Sioux were shorthanded.

I would expect Eidsness and Walski to each get a start this weekend at Mankato, and that rotation will continue for the first month or so of the regular season.

A second area of concern is special teams play.  Certainly, the power play hit the skids at the Icebreaker, as UND scored just once in 14 man-advantage situations.  The “new-look” power play that went 3 for 7 against Manitoba in the home opener struggled over the weekend.  I have a feeling that we might see a 2 for 6 or 3 for 7 power-play night before October is over.  The Sioux penalty kill was effective against BU on Friday (the Terriers went 0 for 6), but allowed the Minutemen two goals on four opportunities on Saturday.  And to make matters worse, Boston University scored a four on four goal against North Dakota after UND excelled in that area last season.

In short, games are won and lost with special teams, and the Fighting Sioux need to improve to compete.

I’m excited about the line of Andrew Kozek, Evan Trupp, and Jason Gregoire.  They were noticeably absent from the scoresheet in both games last weekend, but should give opposing teams fits down the road.  Inceidentally, this line was the only line to remain intact from Friday to Saturday.

I’m not sold on Brad Miller with Ryan Duncan and Chris VandeVelde on the top line.  Apparently, neither are the coaches, as Miller was a healthy scratch on Saturday after scoring UND’s lone goal on Friday night.  Brett Hextall moved up to the top line on Saturday. 

Check back later this week for a full preview of UND vs. the MSU-Mankato Mavericks.  As always, I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

As is to be expected, there’s much teeth-gnashing in Sioux fandom about an unusual season-opening two losses.  The most valid concern is what those games revealed about the talent and potential of the team for the rest of the season.  I’ll leave that question to more qualified commentators and the forum denizens (a lot of whom are also more qualified than I).

Instead, I found myself wondering what the actual impact of these two losses would be, all other things being equal, on the PairWise Ranking (PWR) used to seed the NCAA tournament.  College hockey has a pretty long season, which reduces the importance of any individual game, but PWR can make inter-conference matchups unusually important.

Opening 2007-08 with two losses

Remembering that the 2007-08 season began with a win and a tie vs. Michigan St and Boston College, I ran the numbers to see what effect changing those to losses would have on the end-of-season PWR.

Actual PWR	PWR with modified results
Michigan (24)	Michigan (24)
Miami (23)	Miami (23)
North Dakota (22)	New Hampshire (22)
New Hampshire (21)	Colorado College (21)
Colorado College (20)	North Dakota (20)
Boston College (18)	Denver (18)
Denver (18)	Michigan St (18)
St Cloud (17)	Boston College (17)
Michigan St (16)	St Cloud (16)
Clarkson (16)	Clarkson (16)
Minnesota (14)	Minnesota (14)
Wisconsin (11)	Notre Dame (10)
Notre Dame (10)	Mankato (10)
Mankato (10)	Harvard (10)

Those small seeming changes cause the Sioux to lose two more comparisons and drop two spots. (Of course, they also somewhat save face for the selection process by knocking Wisconsin out in favor of Mankato).

A look forward to the 2008-09 PWR

Oct. 14, 2008 updated — Hat tip to NodakVindy for correctly pointing out that the list should include all opponents of BU & Mass.

Given the volatility of PWR itself, it’s pretty hard to predict the effects of two games on PWR at this point.

At a minimum, we know UND will have an additional 0-1 added to its common opponents’ comparison for each opponent of Massachusetts and Boston University (0-2 for opponents of both). That can be particularly important when comparing to out-of-conference teams who won’t have a lot of opponents in common with the Sioux.

Rated from most damage to least, here’s how the weekend’s losses will play into UND’s COP comparisons with teams that have played or will play BU or Massachusetts.

Team	UND’s Scheduled COPs	UND record to date vs. COPs (percent of COP)
American Int’l	1	0-1 (100%)
Vermont	2	0-2 (100%)
Providence	2	0-2 (100%)
Merrimack	2	0-2 (100%)
Mass.-Lowell	5	0-2 (40%)
Holy Cross	3	0-1 (33%)
Harvard	3	0-1 (33%)
Rensselaer	6	0-2 (33%)
St. Lawrence	6	0-2 (33%)
Maine	6	0-2 (33%)
Northeastern	6	0-2 (33%)
Boston University	4	0-1 (25%)
Michigan State	8	0-2 (25%)
Boston College	8	0-2 (25%)
New Hampshire	8	0-2 (25%)
Connecticut	5	0-1 (20%)
Massachusetts	6	0-1 (17%)
Cornell	7	0-1 (14%)
Michigan	10	0-1 (10%)
Bemidji State	13	0-1 (8%)

The losses could also play into UND’s TUC comparisons, if either ends up a TUC, and of course any loss has a small effect on win percentage and RPI.

Bottom Line

It’s quite possible that last weekend’s results will lead to UND losing a comparison or two that it would have won with a split or a sweep. But with 36 scheduled games remaining, the Sioux will have plenty of opportunity to undo that damage. The big open question is certainly the one I opened this article with — what, if anything, did last weekend’s games reveal about the team? Fortunately for us, UND has not announced an intent to forfeit the rest of the season, so we should have 18 more weekends of Sioux hockey to enjoy and find out.

North Dakota and Massachusetts are both looking to rebound from opening-day losses at the Icebreaker Invitational in Boston. UND lost 5-1 to Boston University, while Michigan State University downed the Minutemen 3-1 behind a 36-save performance from Jeff Lerg.

As we have seen in recent years, non-conference results play a critical role in determining the 16-team field for the NCAA tournament. Neither team wants to begin the 2008-09 campaign with two losses.

UMass returns seven of its top ten scorers from a squad that was ranked as high as #5 in the country last season. Despite a large question mark at the goaltending position, the Fighting Sioux expect to be in the mix at the end of the year.

Massachusetts Team Profile

Head Coach: Don “Toot” Cahoon (9th season at UMass, 115-147-28, .445)

National Rankings: -/-

This Season: 0-1-0, 0-0-0 Hockey East

Last Season: 14-16-6, 9-13-5 Hockey East (8th)

Key Returning Players (last season‘s statistics): Sophomore F James Marcou (8-24-32), Senior F Cory Quirk (11-18-29), Senior F Chris Davis (6-17-23), Junior D Justin Braun (4-16-20), Junior D Martin Nolet (2-4-6), Sophomore G Paul Dainton (12-14-6, 2.56 GAA, .911 SV)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 106-57-15, .638)

National Rankings: #5/#4

This Season: 0-1-0, 0-0-0 WCHA

Last Season: 28-11-4 (Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)

Key Returning Players (last season‘s statistics): Senior F Ryan Duncan (18-22-40), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (15-17-32), Senior F Andrew Kozek (18-3-21), Junior D Chay Genoway (8-21-29), Senior D Joe Finley (4-11-15)

Game News and Notes

Saturday’s contest will mark the first ever meeting between these two teams. Massachusetts outshot Michigan State 37-16 on Friday night but lost 3-1; the Minutemen finished 0 for 6 on the power play. Only 3753 fans showed up for Friday’s matchup between UND and BU.

The Prediction

North Dakota will come out flying after Friday’s 5-1 loss to the Terriers. The Minutemen could find some success countering UND’s aggressive style, but the Sioux will prove too much for UMass. UND 3-2.

119 minutes. Less than two complete hockey games. That’s the total amount of collegiate experience among the three goaltenders on the roster.

And this from the head coach:

“The most important thing we have to do is shore up that position. Our philosophy will be (that) those who play well will be rewarded with further play. It might be that we have a rotation. It might be that we have a 1 and a 1A. It might be that we just have a number one guy. It all remains to be seen.”

A quote from North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol? Nope. That was Boston University head coach Jack Parker describing the goaltending situation at Agganis Arena. But the situation sounds very familiar to the Sioux faithful….

Hobey Baker candidate Jean-Philippe Lamoureux graduated from the University of North Dakota after posting one of the all-time great seasons in UND netminding history: 27-11-4, 1.75 goals-against average, .932 save percentage, and 6 shutouts.

Sioux senior Aaron Walski is the only goaltender on the roster with any collegiate playing time, and he has played a total of 101 minutes over three seasons.

Freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness is expected to split playing time with Walski this weekend at the Icebreaker, while walk-on Graeme Harrington may see the ice sometime down the road.

At BU, only sophomore goalie Adam Kraus has seen game action, as Brett Bennett was dismissed from the team after a sophomore campaign in which he played 70 percent of the goaltending minutes and posted a record of 16-10-3 with a 2.63 GAA and a .888 save percentage. Freshman Grant Rollheiser was the top netminder taken in the 2008 NHL draft and should see playing time right away.

Both teams return scoring punch and defensive depth, but need to solve the goaltending puzzle in order to play deep into March and April.

Boston University Team Profile

Head Coach: Jack Parker (34th season at BU, 762-389-93, .650)

National Rankings: #9/#10

This Season: 0-0-0, 0-0-0 Hockey East

Last Season: 19-17-4, 15-9-3 Hockey East (2nd)

Key Returning Players: Senior F Chris Higgins (14-18-32), Sophomore F Colin Wilson (12-23-35), Sophomore F Nick Bonino (16-13-29), Senior D Matt Gilroy (6-15-21), Sophomore D Kevin Shattenkirk (4-17-21)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 106-56-15, .641)

National Rankings: #5/#4

This Season: 0-0-0, 0-0-0 WCHA

Last Season: 28-11-4 (Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)

Key Returning Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (18-22-40), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (15-17-32), Senior F Andrew Kozek (18-3-21), Junior D Chay Genoway (8-21-29), Senior D Joe Finley (4-11-15)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: March 25, 2005. UND blanks BU 4-0 in the opener of the NCAA East Regional (Worcester, MA). North Dakota would go on to defeat Boston College 6-3 in the regional final.

Last meeting at Agannis Arena: October 20, 1995. The Terriers blitz North Dakota 8-5.

Most important meeting: March 29, 1997. UND scores five goals in the second period and goes on to defeat Boston University 6-4 for the 1997 NCAA championship. David Hoogsteen scores two goals for the Fighting Sioux, including a back-breaker with six seconds remaining in the middle frame.

All-time record: North Dakota leads the all-time series, 11-6-1 (.639), although the Terriers have won five of nine games played in Boston. When the newly-formed Hockey East began play in 1984-1985, it created a five-year interlocking schedule with the WCHA. During that time, Boston University and North Dakota met 7 times, with John “Gino” Gasparini’s Fighting Sioux squad going 6-1-0 against Jack Parker’s Terriers.

Game News and Notes

This is the second consecutive season that North Dakota has opened non-conference action in Boston. Last season, the Sioux played Boston College to a bizarre, fog-shortened 0-0 tie before beating Northeastern 3-0. UND tuned up for the Icebreaker with a 6-2 exhibition victory over the University of Manitoba Bisons, while the Terriers downed the University of New Brunswick 4-2 in exhibition play. North Dakota freshman forward Jason Gregoire was tabbed as the co-rookie of the year in the WCHA coaches’ poll. When UND freshman Brett Hextall suits up in Friday’s contest, he will become the first California native to play hockey for the Fighting Sioux.

The Prediction

UND has won its last six season openers, and will make it seven against Boston University. Both teams can get up the ice and score, and this one will go down to the wire. UND 4-3.

For the second year in a row, more than a dozen WCHA players gave up their remaining eligibility for pro contracts. Headlining this list of early departures are North Dakota’s T.J. Oshie (18-27-45 last season), St. Cloud State’s Andreas Nodl (18-26-44), Wisconsin’s Kyle Turris (11-24-35), Minnesota’s Blake Wheeler (15-20-35), and Michigan Tech’s Michael-Lee Teslak (.918 save percentage, 2.20 goals-against average).

Before I reveal my first three predictions for this year, let’s take a look at last season….

WCHA 2007-08 Final Standings

Team………………………..Record….Points
Colorado College……….21-6-1…..43
North Dakota……………..18-7-3…..39
Denver………………………16-11-1…..33
St. Cloud State………..12-12-4…..28
MSU-Mankato………….12-12-4……28
Wisconsin………………..11-12-5…..27
Minnesota………………….9-12-7…..25
Minnesota-Duluth……..9-14-5…..24
Michigan Tech……………9-15-4…..22
Alaska-Anchorage……..3-19-6….12

And here are three teams that I believe will certainly be on the road for the first round of the WCHA playoffs…

#10 University of Alaska-Anchorage Seawolves
Last year’s record: 3-19-6 (10th)
Last year’s statistics: 1.93 goals scored/game (10th), 3.18 goals allowed/game (10th)
Key returning players: Junior F Paul Crowder (7-16-23), Junior F Josh Lunden (14-13-27), Junior F Kevin Clark (7-16-23), Senior D Mat Robinson (3-10-13), Junior G Jon Olthuis (6-17-8, 2.89, .886)
Early departures: None
Key graduation losses: F Peter Cartwright (3-14-17), D Luke Beaverson (1-2-3)
The question marks: Can Alaska-Anchorage climb out of the cellar? And how does head coach Dave Shyiak receive a four-year extension on his contract after posting a 26-69-14 (.303) record in his first three seasons?
The bottom line: The Seawolves only lost five players to graduation and return almost 80 percent of their scoring from 07-08. It might take 8 wins and a handful of ties to secure 9th place in the WCHA, but this team could do it.

#9 Michigan Tech University Huskies
Last year’s record: 9-15-4 (9th)
Last year’s statistics: 1.96 goals scored/game (8th), 2.75 goals allowed/game (9th)
Key returning players: Sophomore F Eric Kattelus (2-8-10), Senior D Geoff Kinrade (5-14-19), Junior D Drew Dobson (2-15-17), Senior G Rob Nolan (6-9-1, 2.66 GAA, .899 SV)
Early departure: Goaltender Michael-Lee Teslak (8-11-4, 2.20 GAA, .919 SV)
Key graduation losses: F Peter Rouleau (12-17-29), F Tyler Shelast (16-10-26), F Jimmy Kerr (9-10-19)
The question marks: Can Rob Nolan handle the load? How many games can the Huskies win 2-1?
The bottom line: This will be the lowest scoring team in the league. If Michigan Tech gets good goaltending from Nolan and can score on the power play, they can compete. Otherwise, it will be a long year in Houghton.

#8 University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs
Last year’s record: 9-14-5 (8th)
Last year’s statistics: 1.96 goals scored/game (8th), 2.71 goals allowed/game (8th)
Key returning players: Senior F MacGregor Sharp (7-10-17), Senior F Michael Gergen (6-7-13), Senior F Nick Kemp (7-8-15), Senior D Josh Meyers (6-8-14, 110 PIM), Junior G Alex Stalock (13-17-6, 2.35 GAA, .914 SV)
Early departure: D Jason Garrison (5-9-14) leaves after three seasons with the Bulldogs.
Key graduation loss: F Matt McKnight (6-10-16)
The question marks: What happened to the Bulldogs at the end of last season? Duluth won only 4 of its final 18 conference games last season, and was shut out in 4 of its last 8 overall. How many years can head coach Scott Sandelin (four straight losing seasons and six out of eight overall) be on the hot seat before he gets burned?
The bottom line: The recipe for success in Duluth is consistency. Otherwise, the Bulldogs might have a new head coach for 2009-10.

Click here for part two of my WCHA season preview, in which I predict which teams will finish in 4th-7th place and battle it out for home ice in the playoffs. Check back later for part three, detailing the top three teams in the conference. As always, I welcome your questions and comments.

The 2008-09 WCHA Coaches’ Poll is out, and if you’re interested in that you can go view it at the Herald or talk about it on the message board.

The release got me wondering how useful the poll is. Do the coaches make better picks than last year’s final standings? Do the coaches even make better picks than random draw? This post uses some light stats, but I’ll point out the important numbers.

To measure how well the coaches did, I compared their predictions to the actual outcomes (the precise measurement is the sum of the squares of the differences between outcomes and predictions). As a point of comparison, I also compared the previous years’ standings to the actual outcomes, to see if the coaches’ predictions were an improvement over those.

Coaches’ polls’ differences from outcomes vs. previous years’ differences from outcomes (lower numbers are better).

Year	Sum Sq. Diff Coaches Poll	Sum Sq. Diff Previous Year
2007	65	84
2006	52	43
2005	21	48
2004	86	89
2003	62	146
Avg	57.2	82

Looks good for the coaches. In only one of the five years was the coaches’ poll a worse predictor than the previous year’s final standings.

Already with some faith in the coaches’ picks, I also compared them to the average performance of random picks. To do that, I performed 200,000 simulations of random picks to get the shape of their performance. Using the same measure as above, throwing darts would achieve the following error:

Mean	Std. Dev
175	55.1

Note that the 175 mean squared error for random picks is much bigger than either the 57 the coaches achieved over 5 years or the 82 the previous years’ outcomes achieved. (The coaches’ poll is 2.1 standard deviations better than random picks, the previous years’ outcomes 1.7 standard deviations better). From that, we can conclude that both the previous years’ final standings and the coaches’ poll contain useful information that provides a more accurate prediction than a random draw.

Here’s the raw data:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pDN6PFrUpi3c_P6VEQ353Kw

This is the second of three Fighting Sioux All-Decade teams. Click here for the 1980s team. Check back later for the All-Decade team from the 2000s.

I came up with this list based on statistics, honors, and championships. More consideration was given to players who played their entire career in the 1990s.

Forwards:
Dixon Ward-Greg Johnson-Russ Romaniuk
David Hoogsteen-Jeff Panzer-Jay Panzer
Jason Blake-Adam Calder-Lee Goren
Jeff McLean-Jason Ulmer-Teeder Wynne

Landon Wilson, Darcy Mitani, Kevin Hoogsteen, and Marty Schriner are the reserve forwards.

Defensemen:
Curtis Murphy-Brad Williamson
Nick Naumenko-Jason Herter
Dane Litke-Mike Commodore

Brad Bombardir and Trevor Hammer are the reserve defensemen.

Goaltender:
Karl Goehring

Toby Kvalevog and Aaron Schweitzer are the reserve goaltenders.

This is the type of list that (hopefully) will spark some debate. Feel free to chime in with your own list or take me to task for a glaring omission.