Sioux Sports Talk

INDIANAPOLIS — The NCAA Ice Hockey Rules Committee has issued a statement which says, in part, that:

“Effective immediately, all NCAA men’s ice hockey tournament games which are tied at the conclusion of a five-minute sudden death overtime period will be decided by a shootout. This rule change will affect the remaining three games of the 2009 tournament.”

Attempts to reach Ty Halpin, NCAA Associate Director for Playing Rules Administration, were unsuccessful.

It is believed that this decision comes in the wake of last weekend’s programming debacle on ESPN2, when a men’s lacrosse match between Virginia and Maryland went into seven overtimes, causing many college hockey fans to miss the first period of the Northeast Regional semifinal between New Hampshire and North Dakota. There seems to be a clear desire from the ESPN family of networks to complete the remaining tournament games in the 2 hour and 30 minute time frame allotted.

Three of the previous twelve 2009 NCAA men’s ice hockey tournament games have gone into overtime, although the aforementioned UNH/UND game would not have been affected by this rule change. The Wildcats scored the game-winner 45 seconds into the first overtime period.

Elsewhere in the tournament, Minnesota-Duluth defeated Princeton on a power play goal more than 13 minutes into overtime, and Vermont toppled Air Force after more than 34 minutes of overtime to advance to the Frozen Four (Washington, DC). Both of those games would have gone to a shootout under this rule change.

The specifics of the shootout rules for the Frozen Four will be announced at a press conference scheduled for 4:01 p.m. EST on ESPNEWS.

Here’s a closer look at the four teams in the NCAA Northeast Regional at the Verizon Wireless Arena (Manchester, New Hampshire):

Game 1: (2) North Dakota vs. (3) New Hampshire (Saturday, March 28, 2:00 p.m. ET)

North Dakota Team Profile

National Rankings: #7/#7
PairWise Ranking: #8
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 17th of 58 teams
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 130-70-19, .637)
This Season: 24-14-4 Overall, 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.36 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.67 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.5% (48 of 275)
Penalty Kill: 84.4% (184 of 218)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (19-19-38), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (16-17-33), Freshman F Jason Gregoire (11-16-27), Freshman F Brett Hextall (12-13-25), Senior D Brad Miller (6-29-35), Junior D Chay Genoway (3-29-32), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (24-11-4, 2.47 GAA, .908 SV%, 1 SO)
NCAA Championships: 7 (most recent, 2000)
NCAA Appearance: 24th (most recent, 2008)

New Hampshire Team Profile

National Rankings: #12/#12
PairWise Ranking: #10
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 10th of 58 teams
Head Coach: Dick Umile (19th season at UNH, 443-219-71, .653)
This Season: 19-12-5 Overall, 15-8-4 Hockey East (3rd)
Team Offense: 3.03 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.92 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 11.5% (22 of 191)
Penalty Kill: 83.1% (152 of 183)
Last Season: 25-10-3 Overall (NCAA West Regional Semifinalist), 19-5-3 Hockey East (1st)
Key Players: Sophomore F James van Riemsdyk (17-22-39), Sophomore F Mike Sislo (18-10-28), Junior F Peter LeBlanc (12-15-27), Junior F Bobby Butler (8-19-27), Senior D Kevin Kapstad (2-22-24), Junior G Brian Foster (18-10-4, 2.63 GAA, .910 SV%, 3 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 19th (most recent, 2008)

What to watch for: Can North Dakota get the early start (UND is 14-1-2 when leading after one period of play)? Will the Wildcats be able to exploit North Dakota’s suddenly soft penalty kill? Is it better to miss out on conference championship weekend (as New Hampshire did) or drop two games in the postseason tournament (a la North Dakota)? Is it possible for Dave Hakstol to lead UND to its fifth consecutive Frozen Four?

Who will win: No current New Hampshire player has won an NCAA playoff game, while North Dakota’s senior class has advanced to three consecutive Frozen Fours. This game will be tight, but on the smaller rink, the Sioux have the edge. UND 3-2.

Game 2: (1) Boston University vs. (4) Ohio State (Saturday, March 28, 6:30 p.m. ET)

Boston University Team Profile

National Rankings: #1/#1
PairWise Ranking: #1
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 12th of 58 teams
Head Coach: Jack Parker (36th season at BU, 811-413-101, .650)
This Season: 31-6-4 Overall, 18-5-4 Hockey East (1st)
Team Offense: 3.85 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.95 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.8% (52 of 238)
Penalty Kill: 87.3% (214 of 245)
Last Season: 19-17-4 Overall, 15-9-3 Hockey East (2nd)
Key Players: Sophomore F Colin Wilson (15-35-50), Sophomore F Nick Bonino (16-28-44), Senior F Chris Higgins (12-28-40), Senior F Brandon Yip (19-20-39), Senior D Matt Gilroy (8-24-32), Sophomore D Colby Cohen (7-21-28), Freshman G Kieran Millan (25-2-3, 1.84 GAA, .923 SV%, 3 SO)
NCAA Championships: 4 (most recent, 1995)
NCAA Appearance: 31st (most recent, 2007)

Ohio State Team Profile

National Rankings: #14/-
PairWise Ranking: #15
KRACH Strength of Schedule: 27th of 58 teams
Head Coach: John Markell (15th season at OSU, 265-248-50, .515)
This Season: 23-14-4 Overall, 13-11-4-3 CCHA (5th)
Team Offense: 3.41 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.71 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 13.9% (26 of 187)
Penalty Kill: 81.8% (175 of 214)
Last Season: 12-25-4 Overall, 7-18-3 CCHA (12th)
Key Players: Senior F Corey Elkins (18-22-40), Sophomore F John Albert (11-28-39), Sophomore F Peter Boyd (13-18-31), Sophomore F Hunter Bishop (13-16-29), Sophomore D Shane Sims (7-17-24), Sophomore G Dustin Carlson (21-11-3, 2.40 GAA, .920 SV%, 4 SO)
NCAA Championships: None
NCAA Appearance: 6th (most recent, 2005)

What to watch for: Will BU start a run to the national championship and claim its sixth title of the season (after winning the IceBreaker, Denver Cup, Beanpot, Hockey East regular season, and Hockey East playoff championship)? Can Ohio State shut down the Terriers’ vaunted power play (21.8%)? Is it possible for the Wildcat and Sioux faithful in attendance get behind the Buckeyes and will them to the upset?

Who will win: Boston University has too much across the board for Ohio State, but we could have said the same about Michigan vs. Air Force or Denver vs. Miami (OH). Anything can happen, but I don’t see the Terriers dropping their opening game. BU 4-1.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions. Check back after the regional semifinal games for more previews, predictions, analysis, and reaction from the NCAA tournament.

Here’s a quick peek at what I see happening in the West, Midwest, and East regionals…

West Regional:

#1 Denver over #4 Miami (OH)
#2 Minnesota-Duluth over #3 Princeton

#2 Minnesota-Duluth over #1 Denver

Midwest Regional:

#2 Northeastern over #3 Cornell
#4 Bemidji State over #1 Notre Dame

#2 Northeastern over #4 Bemidji State

East Regional:

#1 Michigan over #4 Air Force
#3 Vermont over #2 Yale

#1 Michigan over #3 Vermont

So three of my four Frozen Four teams are Michigan, Northeastern, and Minnesota-Duluth. Check back later tonight for a complete look at the Northeast Regional, which includes Boston University, North Dakota, New Hampshire, and Ohio State.

Here’s what I get. Errors are mine, not KRACH’s 😉

KRACH predictions of the 2009 NCAA tournament

West    Game 1    Game 2 (Region Champ)    Game 3 (Frozen four semifinal)    Game 4 (National Champ)
1. Denver    62.08%    37.17%    15.72%    7.19%
4. Miami    37.92%    18.14%    5.72%    1.98%

2. Minn. Duluth    61.32%    30.04%    11.16%    4.52%
3. Princeton    38.68%    14.65%    4.06%    1.24%

Midwest
1. Notre Dame    90.22%    62.64%    44.31%    26.90%
4. Bemidji St    9.78%    2.00%    0.43%    0.07%

2. Northeastern    65.10%    25.83%    14.65%    6.76%
3. Cornell    34.90%    9.52%    3.95%    1.27%

Northeast
1. Boston U    78.06%    57.04%    39.36%    24.45%
4. Ohio St    21.94%    9.49%    3.72%    1.22%

2. North Dakota    51.04%    17.30%    7.98%    3.13%
3. New Hampshire    48.96%    16.17%    7.30%    2.80%

East
1. Michigan    80.52%    48.55%    23.06%    11.32%
4. Air Force    19.48%    5.24%    1.01%    0.20%

2. Yale    45.91%    20.27%    7.30%    2.73%
3. Vermont    54.09%    25.93%    10.28%    4.22%

I’ll post the spreads between these predictions and the SiouxSports community’s picks (a.k.a. the homer bias) later.

This is my yearly attempt to predict the ten finalists for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award. In the past, my results have been mixed, from a high of seven to a low of five.

As you may remember, my top ten is weighted toward players on teams still alive for the national tournament, although there are a couple of picks outside of the NCAA field.

Skaters (in alphabetical order):

Ryan Duncan, senior forward, North Dakota (18-19-37)

Jacques Lamoureux, junior forward, Air Force (31-20-51)

Bryan Leitch, senior forward, Quinnipiac (12-47-59)

Aaron Palushaj, sophomore forward, Michigan (12-36-48)

Ryan Stoa, junior forward, Minnesota (24-22-46)

Colin Wilson, sophomore forward, Boston University (14-35-49)

Goaltenders (in alphabetical order):

Zane Kalemba, junior, Princeton (22-8-0, 1.69 GAA, .936 SV%, 2 SO)

Jordan Pearce, senior, Notre Dame (28-5-3, 1.62 GAA, .934 SV%, 8 SO)

Ben Scrivens, junior, Cornell (20-8-4, 1.68 GAA, .936 SV%, 7 SO)

Brad Thiessen, junior, Northeastern (25-10-4, 2.07 GAA, .932 SV%, 3 SO)

Duncan is admittedly a homer pick (and Sioux defenseman Chay Genoway had the early Hobey buzz), but no one is hotter than Duncan (22 points over his last 18 games) and UND would not be a top 5 team without their senior captain.

None of the defensemen this year jumped out at me, although Wisconsin’s McBain could crack the top ten.

Feel free to argue, debate, and add your own opinions. Check back after the announcement on Thursday evening to see how I did.

I hacked on the simulator last night and got it supporting conditional games (e.g. winner of this game plays winner of that) and I’m glad I did — the results were pretty interesting.

Possibilities

Decked out in blacks for the Final Five, here’s the distribution of possible outcomes of the Final Five.

NOTE — unlike during the regular season, outcomes are not weighted as to their likelihood. So, instead of reading the chart “UND has a 35% chance of finishing #5 if games go as predicted by KRACH”, it should be read “35% of possible Final Five outcomes results in UND finishing #5”.

What to cheer for

A game-by-game cheering guide can be found in the “UND finishes #3” scenario in the Extreme outcomes section below. However, not all games are equally important. Here’s what seemed to matter in the simulations.

These are the minimum individual events required for a #3 finish (other things have to happen, too, but they involve combinations of outcomes)

• Notre Dame wins 1
• Alaska wins 1
• Michigan can’t win any
• Yale can’t win 2
• St. Lawrence wins 1
• UW wins 1
• Northern Michigan wins 1

Interesting tidbit — UND can lose a game and still be #4. It looks like most of those scenarios involve UND losing to UW in the title game, but there are a few others floating around out there.

Extreme outcomes

As many have speculated, UND does seem to be a lock for the tourney. Though likely outcomes seem to range from #4 to #10 in the pairwise rankings, possible finishes range from #3 to #13 (a broader range than I’ve seen speculated anywhere else). The fun thing about CHN’s You Are the Committee being out now is that you no longer have to take my word for it, I can give you the scenarios, proving that the simulator does something useful 🙂

UND finishes #3

UND finishes #3 in about .2% of possible outcomes. Given that there are about half a million possible outcomes of the remaining 19 games, that’s about 1000 different ways UND could finish #3. Here’s one of them.

Northeastern > Mass.-Lowell
Boston University > Boston College
Boston University > Northeastern

Cornell > Princeton
St. Lawrence > Yale
St. Lawrence > Cornell
Princeton > Yale

Mercyhurst > RIT
Bentley > Air Force
Bentley > Mercyhurst

Alaska > Michigan
Notre Dame > Northern Michigan
Alaska > Notre Dame
Northern Michigan > Michigan

UMD > UMN
UW > Denver
UND > UMD
UND > UW
UMD > Denver

UND finishes #13

UND finishes #13 in about .005% of possible outcomes. If my game count above was right, that’s about 25 different ways UND could finish #13. Here’s one of them.

Northeastern > Mass.-Lowell
Boston College > Boston University
Boston College > Northeastern

Princeton > Cornell
St. Lawrence > Yale
Yale > Cornell
Princeton > St. Lawrence

RIT > Mercyhurst
Air Force > Bentley
RIT > Air Force

Michigan > Alaska
Northern Michigan > Notre Dame
Northern Michigan > Michigan
Notre Dame > Alaska

UMN > UMD
Denver > UW
UMN > UND
UMN > Denver
UW > UND

What now?

• PWR thread remains hopping with a lot of people who are probably smarter than I am — head over there to discuss, pontificate, and learn
• John Whelan’s You Are The Committee (hosted at CHN) lets you test my scenarios and your own

This is a quick preview of the WCHA Final Five tournament in St. Paul. I’ll add more as the weekend progresses. And yes, I know the tournament is reseeded after the first round, but I think it’s more interesting to note where the teams finished in the conference, so I’m leaving them how they are.

In regards to the national picture, it looks like Wisconsin needs to win the Broadmoor Trophy and gain the autobid in order to advance to the NCAAs. Denver and North Dakota are virtual locks to be at-large selections.

The Thursday play-in game is very interesting. It’s not quite as easy as “loser goes home”, as there are some scenarios that would have either team making the tournament despite going 0-1 this weekend. Duluth certainly has more to gain by winning and more to lose by dropping Thursday’s opener.

Thursday night (7:07 p.m): #5 Minnesota vs. #7 Minnesota-Duluth

Both teams thrive on the early lead, so the first goal is tremendously important. The battle of goaltenders features Minnesota’s Alex Kangas (last season’s Final Five MVP) versus Duluth’s Alex Stalock (this season’s WCHA goaltending champion). The smaller ice seems to favor the Bulldogs, but UMD’s penalty killing will be put to the test. I have a feeling that this is a one goal game either way, but the Gophers will be inspired by hearing so many people correctly spell the name of their state. Minnesota 3-2.

Friday afternoon (2:07 p.m.): #2 Denver vs. #3 Wisconsin

If Tyler Ruegsegger and Tyler Bozak were in the lineup for Denver, I would expect the Pioneers to win handily (the Pios swept all four games in the season series with the Badgers). But Gwozdecky will have to shuffle the lines this weekend, and that favors Bucky. In the regular season, Wisconsin posted a record of 6-8-2 against the other four tournament participants, while Denver went 8-3-1. I like Denver in a tight game, but if George walks across the ice, all bets are off. Denver 4-3.

Friday night (7:07 p.m.): #1 North Dakota vs. #5 Minnesota /#7 Minnesota-Duluth

These would both be tough games if the opposing team was rested and ready. But North Dakota will watch and wait on Thursday evening and come out flying on Friday. The Fighting Sioux struggled in Duluth in mid-November, but UND is 15-2-3 in 2009. The Green and White boast greater scoring depth than the rest of the field (ten players averaging a half point per game or better) and will be playing for the championship on Saturday night. North Dakota 5-3 over Minnesota/North Dakota 4-2 over Duluth.

If these results hold, I would expect Minnesota to topple Wisconsin in Saturday’s third-place game in a contest that would mean much more to the Gophers than to the Badgers Minnesota 5-2. And in the championship game, look for North Dakota and Denver to go to overtime and UND’s depth to take over in the final frame. North Dakota 4-3 (OT).

Here are my thoughts about the five first round matchups:

#10 Michigan Tech at #1 North Dakota

Tech seems to give UND fits. The two teams split the regular season series 1-1-1, but there’s too much on the line and the Fighting Sioux have been lights out in 2009. North Dakota in two.

For a complete preview of this series, click here.

#9 Alaska-Anchorage at #2 Denver

Here’s my upset special of the week. The Seawolves split with the Pioneers in Denver this year, they’ve played well on the road, and they’re playing as well as anyone (aside from UND) in the conference. The Pioneers will watch the Final Five from home and get Bozak back in time for the NCAAs. Anchorage in three.

#8 Minnesota State University-Mankato at #3 Wisconsin

The Badgers were on a terrible slide until the regular season finale in Madison. The Mavericks’ Trevor Breuss will be unavailable for Friday’s opener due to another suspension, and UW will roll at home. Wisconsin in two.

#7 Minnesota-Duluth at #4 Colorado College

I wish both of these teams could make the Final Five, but it’s not meant to be. I like the Bulldogs in this one, and it’s not an upset. Duluth in three.

#6 St. Cloud State at #5 Minnesota

The Gophers handled the Huskies in the regular season, winning all four games. It all depends on which Maroon and Gold squad shows up (and more to the point, what kind of goaltending they get). This series might set records for the most goals scored in a first round series. St. Cloud State in three.

So my Final Five will look like this:

North Dakota
Wisconsin
St. Cloud State
Minnesota-Duluth
Alaska-Anchorage

Check back on Sunday night for a look at how close I was and for a complete preview of the WCHA Final Five.

December 28, 2008.

Perhaps this date will go down as the low point for the 2008-2009 Fighting Sioux. UND found itself in the third place game of the Great Lakes Invitational (Detroit, Michigan) after dropping a 2-1 decision to the Michigan State Spartans in the tournament opener.

The Michigan Tech Huskies dropped North Dakota by that same 2-1 score to send the Green and White back home with a record of 9-10-1 in the first half of the year. At the time, UND was sitting in ninth place in the WCHA standings.

Since the Great Lakes Invitational, North Dakota has gone 13-2-3 and claimed the MacNaughton Cup as regular season champions in the WCHA. This latest version of the second half surge also has the Fighting Sioux in excellent position for a berth in the NCAA tournament.

Michigan Tech picked up just its second conference victory of the season last Friday, winning a crazy 6-5 overtime game despite being outshot by visiting Minnesota, 49-27.

In addition to the non-conference game at the GLI, North Dakota and Michigan Tech met in Houghton for a pair of WCHA games in mid-January. The two teams tied on Friday night and the Fighting Sioux rolled on Saturday, 5-0.

North Dakota has had some trouble recently in home playoff series, with six of their last nine first-round matchups going to three games and five of the last twelve home playoff games going to overtime. Despite these close calls, UND has found a way to advance to the Final Five the past eleven times they have hosted the opening round of the WCHA playoffs.

The Huskies have made it to the Final Five just once in the past 12 seasons (2007), while the Fighting Sioux have participated in the Final Five eleven of the past twelve years (missing only in 2002).

Michigan Tech Team Profile

Head Coach: Jamie Russell (6th season at MTU, 61-135-32, .338)
This Season: 6-23-7 Overall, 2-19-7 WCHA (10th)
National Rankings: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: NR
Team Offense: 1.61 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.14 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 11.7% (23 of 196)
Penalty Kill: 78.5% (150 of 191)
Last Season: 14-20-5 Overall, 9-15-4 WCHA (9th)
Key Players: Sophomore F Jordan Baker (15-10-25), Freshman F Brett Olson (10-13-23), Junior D Drew Dobson (4-13-17), Senior D Geoff Kinrade (3-12-15)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 128-68-19, .640)
This Season: 22-12-4 Overall, 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
National Rankings: #6/#6
PairWise Ranking: 7th (tie)
Team Offense: 3.45 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.66 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.3% (45 of 246)
Penalty Kill: 85.1% (166 of 195)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (15-18-33), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (14-15-29), Freshman F Jason Gregoire (11-14-25), Freshman F Brett Hextall (12-11-23), Senior D Brad Miller (6-24-30), Junior D Chay Genoway (3-28-31), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (22-9-4, 2.47 GAA, .909 SV, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 7, 2009 (Houghton, Michigan). UND freshman net minder Brad Eidsness picked up his first career shutout (14 saves) as North Dakota rolled 5-0 to gain three points out of the weekend series with the homestanding Huskies.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: March 16, 2008. North Dakota advanced to the WCHA Final Five by winning the third and decisive game of the first round series by a 2-1 score. Michigan Tech won Saturday night in overtime, 3-2, to force Sunday’s tiebreaker. In the first game of the series, UND controlled play from the outset and won 4-0.

Most Important Meeting: The Sioux and Huskies have never met in the NCAA tournament, so I will go with the most important meeting that never was: in 1965, the Sioux lost to Boston College, 4-3, one game short of the national championship game, where they would have faced the Michigan Tech Huskies, who won the second of their three titles by defeating the Eagles. UND settled for third place that season, downing Brown University, 9-5. North Dakota went 13-3-0 in the regular season in 1964-65, with two of those three losses coming at the hands of Michigan Tech.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 134-90-9 (.594), including a 75-33-4 (.713) record in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1948.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has not lost this season when leading after one period (13-0-2). Michigan Tech has been outscored 38-12 in the first period this season. UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has now appeared in 35 consecutive games (including 34 starts), eclipsing the mark set by freshman Peter Waselovich during North Dakota’s 1973-74 campaign. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 16th on the Fighting Sioux career scoring list, one point behind Tony Hrkac (1984-85, 1986-87). Duncan is now in second place on UND’s all-time games played list with 170, and is moving closer to Chris Porter’s school (and NCAA) record of 175 consecutive games played. Five of the Huskies six wins this season have been by one goal. North Dakota won five of the seven meetings between the teams last year, including two of three in a WCHA first round playoff series in Grand Forks.

The Prediction

UND is unbeaten in its last eleven games (9-0-2) at Ralph Engelstad Arena. I have a feeling that the Huskies will give North Dakota a tough game on Friday night. If the Sioux can win a close one on Friday, they will roll on Saturday. UND 2-1, 4-1.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions. Check back after the games for reaction and commentary.

I wasn’t sure if this post would be necessary or even useful because as the number of games becomes smaller, it becomes easier to use tools like CHN and USCHO’s PWR predictors and slack.net’s build your own rankings.

However, I found the results somewhat interesting, so with minimal fanfare, figured I might as well share them.

Look back at end-of-regular-season predictions

Most weeks since I began publishing these predictions, I pointed out the success (or occasional miss) of the previous week’s one-week prediction. Now I’m going to take a look back at the end-of-season predictions.

I’m going to declare victory and that this tool is actually a useful way to look at a team’s likely future PWR. Looking back at the charts now, with the outcomes known, they provided interesting information that really wasn’t previously obtainable through traditional analysis of close pairings.

The Sioux won 6.5 of their final 8 and ended the regular season at #8 in the PWR. Here was the prediction on Feb. 11:

The Sioux won 2.5 of their final 4 and ended the regular season at #8 in the PWR. Here was the prediction on Feb. 25:

Mar. 16 Possibilities

This chart should be taken with a big grain of salt, because it doesn’t correctly include the possibility of any matchup other than UND’s going to a 3rd game. However, since it includes the sweep and swept scenarios for each team, it probably gets the approximate ranges right, just not the distributions.

Conclusions:

• With some help, the Sioux could still be marching toward a #1 seed.
• Dropping even one game this series could put them at #10 or lower, making the WCHA Final Five games must-win to be assured a spot.
• However, even getting swept out won’t necessarily put UND out of the running; it would put them right on the edge such that other tournament outcomes could easily push the Sioux out.

Who to cheer for

In addition to just dumping the data of what games impact UND the most, I spent a minute or two on each trying to figure out why it might be important. My most interesting observation is that some are defensive plays that are important only if UND loses, when they become critical to propping up UND’s PWR.

Boston College @New Hampshire (UND averages 1.15 spots higher with a sweep)
Could flip the RPI point

AA @Denver (UND averages .98 spots higher with a sweep)
Could flip the RPI point and the COP point

Mass. Lowell @Vermont (UND averages .81 spots higher with a sweep)
Could flip the RPI point

Northern Mich. @Miami (UND averages .62 spots higher with a sweep)
NMU could become a TUC, but that just seems to solidify Notre Dame’s comparison to us by giving them the TUC point.
This is probably about making sure Miami doesn’t overtake us if the Sioux do anything other than sweep.

Brown @Yale (UND averages .48 spots higher with a sweep)
Again, this looks defensive, making sure Yale doesn’t overtake us if the Sioux don’t sweep.

More reading

Like I said in the intro, now that it’s getting easy 😉 everyone has their own predictions, so you PWR junkies can easily get your fill.

• PWR PairWise Rankings 2009 forum thread has become very active
• slack.net Build Your Own Rankings lets you supply a precise scenario of game outcomes and shows you what the PWR table will be
• CHN’s weekly PWR analysis, breakdown and comparison
• You are the committee (YATC) tools, which do both the job of slack.net’s calculator and show you the predicted seedings, should be available on CHN and USCHO after the conference tournaments end