For an explanation of this forecast, see previous weeks’ posts.
UND’s PWR after this weekend
The chart below shows three forecasts for UND’s PWR as of next Monday. The forecasts show the probability distributions of UND’s PWR for each of three potential scenarios — UND’s sweeps, UND splits, and UND loses both. The probabilities are derived from KRACH-based predictions for the non-UND games.
UND loses both — 62% chance of PWR being 16-17
UND splits — 90% chance of PWR being 12-14
UND sweeps — 60% chance of PWR being 9-10
Who else to cheer for
In order of importance to UND’s PWR, here’s what to cheer for this weekend. How many of these hit or miss is a pretty indicator of where UND will fall on the above curves.
Cornell to lose swept by Rennselaer/Union (boosts UND’s PWR 1.04)
Princeton to lose swept by Brown/Yale (boosts UND’s PWR .84)
Michigan Tech (at least 1) over Minnesota-Duluth (boosts UND’s PWR .48; .64 with a sweep)
Michigan (at least 1) over Ohio State (boost UND’s PWR .50; .62 with a sweep)
Colorado College (at least 1) over Minnesota (boosts UND’s PWR .43; .50 with a sweep)
Northern Michigan (sweep) over Miami (boosts UND’s PWR .45; UND harmed .02 with a single win)
Boston College (at least 1) over New Hampshire (boosts UND’s PWR .38; .43 with a sweep)
Wisconsin (at least 1) over Denver (boosts UND’s PWR .33; .41 with a sweep)