Weekend Preview: UND vs. Minnesota

Much has been made of the fact that these two teams have been headed in opposite directions since Minnesota swept North Dakota at Mariucci Arena in November (2-0, 3-2). But is that really the case? Let’s take a look inside some of the numbers and find out…

Coming into the November series, Minnesota’s numbers were eye-popping. Consider these:

Team Offense: 5.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.75 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 35.9% (14 of 39)
Penalty Kill: 87.5% (35 of 40)

And since those two games:

Team Offense: 3.46 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.54 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.1% (12 of 57)
Penalty Kill: 78.0% (46 of 59)

For North Dakota, their early numbers spoke directly to their 3-4-1 record:

Team Offense: 2.75 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.5% (8 of 39)
Penalty Kill: 78.1% (25 of 32)

And since being swept at the hands of the Gophers:

Team Offense: 3.73 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.27 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 26.4% (14 of 53)
Penalty Kill: 81.8% (36 of 44)

UND has put together a record of 8-2-1 since their last meeting with Minnesota, while the Gophers are just 6-6-1.

The question this weekend will be: can the intensity and importance of this series be enough for North Dakota to overcome injuries and battle Minnesota’s depth? Goaltending can be the great equalizer, but we haven’t seen Aaron Dell or Brad Eidsness steal a game for UND yet this year.

For Minnesota, the early season scoring depth has cooled off. Second-line center Erik Haula has just three goals in his last 16 games after collected seven goals and 10 assists in his first seven games.

North Dakota is 19-12-3 (.603) all time when playing on Friday the 13th, including a 7-1-2 record in its last ten games on that date. The series opener is, of course, on Friday the 13th.

Minnesota Team Profile

Head Coach: Don Lucia (13th season at Minnesota, 305-166-54, .632)
Pairwise Ranking: 8th
National Rankings: #5/#5
This Season: 15-7-1 overall, 11-3-0 WCHA (t-1st)
Last Season: 16-14-6 overall (missed NCAA tournament), 13-10-5 WCHA (5th)

Team Offense: 4.04 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.13 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 24.5% (27 of 110)
Penalty Kill: 82.9% (92 of 111)

Key Players: Sophomore F Erik Haula (10-17-27), Freshman F Kyle Rau (12-10-22), Sophomore F Nick Bjugstad (17-11-28), Sophomore D Nate Schmidt (1-23-24), Sophomore D Mark Alt (4-10-14), Senior G Kent Patterson (15-7-1, 2.13 GAA, .918 SV%, 6 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 198-101-29, .648)
Pairwise Ranking: t-18th
National Rankings: #17/#18
This Season: 11-8-2 overall, 7-7-0 WCHA (6th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.10 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.76 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.1% (23 of 104)
Penalty Kill: 82.2% (74 of 90)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (11-13-24) Sophomore F Brock Nelson (15-9-24), Freshman F Mark MacMillan (4-5-9), Senior D Ben Blood (2-8-10), Freshman D Nick Mattson (5-8-13), Senior G Brad Eidsness (3-1-0, 2.43 GAA, .918 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: November 5, 2011 (Minneapolis, MN). North Dakota took a 2-1 lead into the third period against the Gophers but it didn’t hold up. Minnesota’s Nick Larson tied the game with six minutes to play and Kyle Rau potted the game winner with under a minute to go. Minnesota took the opener, 2-0.

Last meeting in Grand Forks (January 15, 2011). UND spotted Minnesota an early goal and then responded with four straight of their own to earn a 4-1 victory and a split of the weekend series. The Golden Gophers took a 3-2 decision in Friday’s opener.

Most important meeting: March 24, 1979 (Detroit, MI). North Dakota and Minnesota met to decide the national championship, and the Gophers prevailed, 4-3.

All-time: Minnesota leads the all-time series by a slim margin, 135-128-14 (.513), although North Dakota has a 69-54-8 (.557) edge in games played in Grand Forks.

Recent history: Minnesota has had the better of it lately, sporting a record of 5-3-2 (.600) in the last ten games between the schools.

Game News and Notes

Dave Hakstol is 15-11-3 against Minnesota in his head coaching career. With a sweep this weekend, Hakstol will join the 200 win club (John “Gino” Gasparini and Dean Blais are the only other UND coaches to reach that plateau). This weekend is a White Out Weekend at Ralph Engelstad Arena, with fans encouraged to wear white to both games. In an effort to alleviate parking and security concerns this weekend, Gopher fans are asked to arrive at 10:37 p.m. each night. Downtown Horns will be playing in the Ralph Engelstad Arena concourse both nights. UND is 8-2-1 when the Horns play at the Ralph.

The Prediction

I’d love to give more than two points to North Dakota, but I can’t see it happening here. UND will pull out a victory on Friday before Minnesota’s depth shines through in the rematch. UND 4-2, MN 4-1.

A first look at the PairWise Rankings and UND’s tournament possibilities

UND fans accustomed to slow starts might be tempted to brush off this season’s slow start as inconsequential, but should they?

January is the typical time to start paying attention to the PairWise Rankings (PWR) that mimic that NCAA’s tournament selection criteria. UND’s current PWR ranking is #19, which would not be sufficient to make the NCAA tournament, but the season isn’t over, so how much does that matter?

Some humorously early bracketology discussions in recent years led me to write an essay a couple years ago, When to start looking at PWR. In short, PWR is so volatile as to be almost meaningless before January; also, PWR doesn’t become a very good predictor of the end-of-season PWR (the only one that matters) until March. So, rather than write much more about today’s PWR ranking, I’ll spend the rest of this article focusing on where UND’s PWR could be in March.

UND’s 2011-12 PWR vs. past performances

UND’s current PWR ranking of 19 is the second worst for a Hakstol-era UND team at this time of year.

2008 – non-TUC (climbed to #5 at the end of the WCHA play-in round with a 15-2-3 run, fell to #8 after getting swept out of the WCHA tournament)
2006 – #18 (climbed to #10 at the end of the WCHA play-in round with a 12-2-4 run, to #7 with a win and a loss in the WCHA tournament)

Each of those teams made the NCAA tournament, but only after a phenomenal second half run.

Where will UND finish?

Mathematically, UND can still finish the regular season #1 overall even if they lose one more game.

The above graph is the distribution of rankings, given how many of its remaining games wins.  So, for example, the gray “Win 11” curve shows that UND is quite likely to have a PWR ranking of 10-13 at the end of the regular season if they win 11 of their remaining games.

Making the NCAA tournament is a distinct possibility. If you guess at a PWR ranking of 13 as the cutoff for making it at large (it depends how many lower-ranked teams get autobids, thus taking one of the 16 slots), winning 8 or 9 of the remaining 15 games could be sufficient with a decent WCHA tournament run.

Technical note on PWR (change in COP)

For students of PWR, you should note one change in the way PWR is calculated this year.

Rather than the common opponents (COP) criterion simply being a sum of each teams’ records vs all common opponents, it’s the average of each teams’ record vs each common opponent. That’s a subtle distinction, so I’ll try to illustrate it with a hypothetical example which highlights the reason they made this change.

Suppose these outcomes:

UND vs Sacred Heart: 5-0-0
UND vs Ohio State: 0-1-0

Minnesota vs Sacred Heart: 1-0-0
Minnesota vs Ohio State: 3-2-0

Old COP would be: UND 5-1-0 (.8333) / Minnesota (.6667)
New COP would be: UND .500 (average of 100% and 0%) / Minnesota .800 (average of 100% and 60%)

In short, the old formula rewarded UND for having more games against the easier opponent, despite having been winless vs the other common opponent. The new formula gives Minnesota the COP comparison for having winning records vs. both opponents.

I just stumbled on this, how is PWR being predicted?

I simulate the outcomes of the remaining games in the season a million or so times, using KRACH to predict the likelihood of each team winning in each iteration. That’s enough simulations to ensure that even the most unlikely possibilities occur at least once. For each simulated season I calculate what PWR would result from that set of outcomes. I then use the aggregate results of those simulations to assign a likelihood to a particular outcome, that is, if UND finishes #3 in PWR in 370,000 of 1,000,000 simulations, I say that UND has about a 37% chance of finishing #3.

Closing remarks

This is my first stab at firing up the PWR simulations and writing this sort of post this year. It does always seem to take me a little while to get back into the groove, so please point out any errors, questions, or points that need clarifying.

Though I started with an analysis of UND’s position, let me know if there’s anything else in particular that you’d like to see.

Resources

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Harvard

This is the type of series that can make or break a season, particularly a season filled with ups and downs and NCAA tournament bubbles.

After some growing pains, North Dakota is hitting their stride, winning six of their last eight and losing the other two by a single goal (at Bemidji State, vs. Nebraska-Omaha). With a 2-1-1 mark in non-conference play and only a single game against Clarkson (in Winnipeg, Manitoba) on the schedule, these two games are critical for securing a spot in the national tournament.

For Harvard, it may be a bit too early to tell, as the Crimson have played just ten games (North Dakota has played 18). Is Harvard capable of sustaining their nation’s-best 32% power play? Can they correct a dreadful 68% penalty kill? And can a freshman goaltender continue to keep them in games?

As with most teams, Harvard’s special teams play will come back to the pack. The Crimson continue to get offensive contributions from their blueliners (their top-six defensemen have collected 36 points in 10 games, while UND’s top three pairs have notched only 33 points in 18 games).

North Dakota’s Derek Forbort (sophomore defenseman) will miss this weekend’s series (World Junior Championships), while two Sioux forwards – junior Corban Knight and senior Mario Lamoureux – may return to the lineup after missing time with undisclosed injuries. UND freshman forward Rocco Grimaldi will not return to game action this weekend.

Harvard Team Profile

Head Coach: Ted Donato (8th season at Harvard, 107-113-24, .488)
Pairwise Ranking: #25 (tie)
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 4-3-3 overall, 3-3-2 ECAC (t-4th)
Last Season: 12-21-1, 7-14-1 ECAC (10th)

Team Offense: 3.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.40 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 32.1% (17 of 53)
Penalty Kill: 68.6% (24 of 35)

Key Players: Senior F Alex Killorn (6-6-12), Junior F Alex Fallstrom (3-6-9), Junior F Marshall Everson (4-3-7), Junior D Danny Biega (3-10-13), Freshman D Patrick McNally (3-9-12), Freshman G Steve Michalek (4-2-2, 3.10 GAA, .898 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 196-101-28, .646)
Pairwise Ranking: #20 (tie)
National Rankings: #18/NR
This Season: 9-8-1 overall, 7-7-0 WCHA (6th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 2.83 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.78 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.2% (20 of 90)
Penalty Kill: 82.3% (65 of 79)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (9-11-20) Junior F Corban Knight (6-15-21), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (14-8-22), Freshman D Nick Mattson (3-6-9), Senior D Ben Blood (2-7-9), Senior G Brad Eidsness (3-1-0, 2.43 GAA, .918 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: December 6, 2008 (Cambridge, MA). The Fighting Sioux answered an early third period goal by the Crimson with two goals of their own in the final frame and held off homestanding Harvard to earn the road sweep. UND pounded Harvard 10-1 in Friday’s opener despite being outshot 40-37.

Last meeting in Grand Forks: December 30, 2005. The Green and White won a hard-fought 3-2 contest to avenge a 1-0 defeat one night earlier. Harvard’s shutout win in the opener was their only win over North Dakota in the last 60 years.

Most important meeting: The teams have met twice in the NCAA semifinals (1958 and 1987), with North Dakota winning both by a combined score of 14-3. Since UND won the national championship in 1987, I will go with March 26, 1987 (a 5-2 Sioux victory in Detroit, MI) as the most important game between the schools.

All time series: UND leads the all-time series with a record of 8-2-1 (.773) against Harvard.

Game News and Notes

Saturday’s game will mark just the second official game UND has ever played on New Year’s Eve. The only other contest was a 6-3 setback against the U.S. National team in 1955. North Dakota played an exhibition game (also a loss) against the St. Petersburg Red Army in 1993. Harvard senior defenseman Danny Biega is second nationally in points per game by a blueliner (1.40). Brad Eidsness is the only current Sioux player to have played against Harvard, winning both games in Cambridge and posting a 2.00 GAA and .947 save percentage in the road sweep.

The Prediction

One of these games will be close, and if history repeats it will be Saturday’s rematch. Aside from a win against Colgate, the Crimson have not fared well against better teams. UND will wear down Harvard over the course of the weekend and come out with two victories. UND 5-1, 3-2.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Nebraska-Omaha

North Dakota has had two distinct stretches in league play this season. In its first three weekends of WCHA action this year (at Wisconsin, vs. St. Cloud State, at Minnesota), UND went just 1-5-0 and was outscored 20-12.

Over the next three conference series (at Bemidji State, vs. Colorado College, at Alaska-Anchorage), the Fighting Sioux won five of six games and outscored its opponents 25-15.

The Green and White have improved in several areas since the opening of the season. Goaltending is getting better, and it’s encouraging that both Aaron Dell and Brad Eidsness are in the mix. More importantly, UND has found secondary scoring. While North Dakota’s top line of Danny Kristo, Brock Nelson, and Corban Knight (28 goals and 34 assists so far this year) continue to be the team’s bread and butter, the all-freshman line of Mark MacMillan, Brendan O’Donnell, and Michael Parks have collected three goals and two assists in the last four games.

Last year’s UNO/UND series in Grand Forks was a homecoming of sorts for Mavericks’ head coach Dean Blais, and this year, he brings two players with him who have strong ties to the Fighting Sioux program:

Freshman netminder Dayn Belfour has started four games for the Mavs this year and boasts the best goaltending numbers on the team (2.30 GAA, .899 SV%)

Fellow freshman Josh Archibald has played all 18 games at forward for UNO, collecting 9 goals and adding 4 helpers. Archibald has been disappointing in the penalty minute category, however, notching only six minor penalties for a total of 12 minutes.

In its second season in the WCHA, Dean Blais’ squad isn’t able to sneak up on anyone, but they’re still holding on to third place in the league, three points in front of North Dakota.

Nebraska-Omaha Team Profile

Head Coach: Dean Blais (3rd season at UNO, 49-39-11, .551)
Pairwise Ranking: #26
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: -8-7-3 overall, 6-3-3 WCHA (3rd)
Last Season: 21-16-2, 17-9-2 WCHA (3rd)

Team Offense: 3.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.22 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 24.7% (19 of 77)
Penalty Kill: 80.3% (49 of 61)

Key Players: Junior F Terry Broadhurst (14-9-23), Sophomore F Matt White (8-15-23), Freshman F Jayson Megna (6-11-17), Sophomore D Andrej Sustr (3-8-11), Junior D Bryce Aneloski (1-8-9), Senior G John Faulkner (4-4-0, 3.28 GAA, .862 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 195-100-28, .647)
Pairwise Ranking: #18
National Rankings: #19/NR
This Season: 8-7-1 overall, 6-6-0 WCHA (t-4th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.06 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 24.1% (20 of 83)
Penalty Kill: 81.1% (60 of 74)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (8-11-19) Junior F Corban Knight (6-15-21), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (14-8-22), Freshman D Nick Mattson (3-6-9), Senior D Ben Blood (2-7-9), Senior G Brad Eidsness (3-1-0, 2.43 GAA, .918 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: January 22, 2011 (Grand Forks, ND). One night after being throttled by the visiting Mavericks 8-4, North Dakota scored four third period goals to salvage a split of the weekend series by a final of 4-2. Sioux forward Jason Gregoire scored two goals and added an assist to lead the way.

Most important meeting: Since the two teams have only met four times (and the series is tied at two games apiece), I will call Friday’s opener the most important meeting between the schools.

Game News and Notes

Nebraska-Omaha has tallied at least 40 shots on goal in 8 of 18 games this season, and leads the conference with an average of 37.4 shots on goal per game. This weekend’s action will be North Dakota’s last league games until the Fighting Sioux host Minnesota on January 13 and 14, 2012 at Ralph Engelstad Arena. UND and UNO are the two least penalized teams in the WCHA (UND 12.1 penalty minutes per game, UNO 10.0). Only six current North Dakota players (Corban Knight, Danny Kristo, Ben Blood, Derek Forbort, Derek Rodwell, Andrew MacWilliam) played in all four games against Nebraska-Omaha last year.

The Prediction

This is the only time the two teams are scheduled to meet this season, and I have a hard time believing that either team will take all four points. North Dakota is on a bit of a roll and has the edge at home, but the Mavs will not make it easy. UND 4-3, 3-3 tie.

Weekend Preview: UND at Alaska-Anchorage

Last year was a turnaround of sorts for Dave Shyiak and his Alaska-Anchorage squad. UAA finished with a 12-14-2 mark in WCHA play, just two points away from home ice in the first round of the playoffs. Instead of hosting, the Seawolves traveled to Minnesota for the first round and swept the Gophers, 4-3 and 2-0. Anchorage appeared in the WCHA Final Five for the second time in school history, losing to Colorado College in the quarterfinals and ending the year at 16-18-3.

This season, it’s a turn-back-around, as the Seawolves find themselves back in familiar territory in league play with a record of 2-7-1. UAA sits in a tie for 11th place in the conference and is struggling to score goals and prevent goals.

It has been an equally frustrating turnaround for North Dakota. One season removed from a league title, Final Five championship, and Frozen Four appearance, UND came into last weekend’s home series against Colorado College at 2-6-0 in league play. A high-scoring sweep has rejuvenated UND, and the Green and White hope to continue scoring goals and picking up wins.

For Dave Hakstol’s Fighting Sioux, it’s been a puzzling goaltender tandem, as Aaron Dell and Brad Eidsness have shown flashes of brilliance and periods of mediocrity. Hakstol has two good buttons to push this weekend, however, as both Dell (3-0-0, .067 GAA, .964 SV%) and Eidsness (3-1-1, 2.00 GAA, .907 SV%) have had success against Anchorage.

North Dakota’s Danny Kristo (7 goals, 10 assists in 14 games) has been making plays all over the ice, and linemates Brock Nelson (10 goals, 7 assists) and Corban Knight (6 goals, 11 assists) have provided a spark as well. On the blueline, freshman Nick Mattson (3 goals, 5 assists) has added sorely-needed offensive punch, as the other seven defensemen on the roster have a combined 2 goals and 17 assists.

Alaska is always a difficult road trip, as evidenced by the fact that in team history, North Dakota has a record of 15-14-1 at Anchorage. UND’s road record of 1-5-0 this season is less than stellar, although the Seawolves are just 2-3-1 at home this year.

Alaska-Anchorage Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Shyiak (7th season at UAA, 72-134-26, .366)

Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 5-7-2 overall, 2-7-1 WCHA (t-11th)
Last Season: 11-23-2 overall, 9-17-2 WCHA (t-8th)

Team Offense: 2.43 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.36 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.8% (10 of 48)
Penalty Kill: 76.7% (46 of 60)

Key Players: Junior F Mickey Spencer (7-2-9), Junior F Daniel Naslund (2-5-7), Sophomore F Brett Cameron (2-5-7), Senior D Scott Warner (0-6-6), Senior F/D Curtis Leinweber (3-1-4), Sophomore G Chris Kamal (3-4-0, 3.10 GAA, .890 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 193-100-28, .645)
Pairwise Ranking: #28
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 6-7-1 overall, 4-6-0 WCHA (9th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 2.86 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.21 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.8% (15 of 72)
Penalty Kill: 80.3% (49 of 61)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (7-10-17) Junior F Corban Knight (6-11-17), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (10-7-17), Freshman D Nick Mattson (3-5-8), Senior D Ben Blood (1-2-3), Freshman D Nick Mattson (2-4-6), Junior G Aaron Dell (4-6-1, 3.27 GAA, .877 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: February 12, 2011 (Grand Forks, ND). UAA almost survived North Dakota’s first period onslaught, but Sioux forward Brett Hextall scored a power play goal with under a second remaining in the opening frame. Fellow forward Evan Trupp added the game winner less than a minute into the second period, and UND completed the sweep by a score of 3-1. Friday’s opener was all UND, 6-1.

Last meeting in Anchorage: October 8, 2010. Midway through the 2nd period at the Kendall Hockey Classic, North Dakota led 5-1. Eight minutes later, the Seawolves were within one. Anchorage got the equalizer early in the 3rd and the game ended 5-5.

Most Important Meeting: March 19, 2004 (St. Paul, MN). The Fighting Sioux and Seawolves met in the semifinal round of the WCHA Final Five, and UND cruised to the championship game with a 4-2 victory.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 42-17-4 (.698), including a slim 15-14 1 (.517) edge in games played in Anchorage. The last time UND swept a series in Anchorage was in February 2009.

Last Ten: UND has a 7-2-1 (.750) record in the last ten games between the teams.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota heads into the weekend just two points out of sixth place in the WCHA. The top six teams in the league host the first round of the WCHA playoffs. Aside from the ten goals Anchorage scored in a road sweep of Mankato, UAA has scored a total of seven goals in eight league contests. UND sophomore forward Brock Nelson was named WCHA co-offensive player of the week after picking up six points in a home sweep of Colorado College last weekend. The puck drops at 10:07 Central time both night, with the games broadcast live on Fighting Sioux Sports Network (FSSN) and MidcoSN3.

The Prediction

It is so difficult to call a sweep in Anchorage, but North Dakota is on a bit of a roll and will get the next best thing, escaping Alaska without a loss. 2-2 tie, UND 4-2.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. Colorado College

It appears that there is a power outage in Grand Forks. UND has been shut out in three of their last six games (vs. St. Cloud, at Minnesota, at Bemidji) and are averaging less than 2.5 goals per game after scoring over four goals per game in last season’s run to the Frozen Four.

The Fighting Sioux are also struggling defensively and between the pipes, allowing three goals per game, almost a full goal more than last year.

Granted, this year’s roster is substantially different than last year, and the coaches continue to preach patience. Younger players are gaining experience in key situations, and that will benefit UND in the second half.

Colorado College is hoping to take things one step further than last year. CC’s season ended in similar fashion to North Dakota’s, as the Tigers also lost a tight contest to Michigan in the NCAA tournament.

The Tigers are led by Jaden and Rylan Schwartz, but they also have depth up front, offensive defensemen, and solid goaltending. CC has scored at least three goals in every game this year, but they have gone a pedestrian 3-2 in their last five games after opening the year 4-0.

Colorado College Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Owens (13th season at CC, 288-171-41, .617)
Pairwise Ranking: 5th
National Rankings: #4/#4
This Season: 7-2-0 overall, 5-2-0 WCHA (6th)
Last Season: 23-19-3 overall (NCAA West Regional finalist), 13-13-2 WCHA (6th)

Team Offense: 4.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.67 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 25.5% (12 of 47)
Penalty Kill: 85.0% (34 of 40)

Key Players: Sophomore F Jaden Schwartz (5-8-13), Junior F Rylan Schwartz (7-4-11),Senior F Nick Dineen (7-3-10), Senior D Gabe Guentzel (2-8-10), Junior D Mike Boivin (2-6-8), Junior G Joe Howe (4-1-0, 2.69 GAA, .906 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 191-100-28, .643)
Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 4-7-1 overall, 2-6-0 WCHA (t-10th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 2.42 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.0% (11 of 61)
Penalty Kill: 82.4% (42 of 51)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (4-8-12) Junior F Corban Knight (5-7-12), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (7-4-11), Sophomore D Derek Forbort (1-2-3), Senior D Ben Blood (1-2-3), Freshman D Nick Mattson (2-4-6), Junior G Aaron Dell (3-6-1, 2.87 GAA, .887 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 18, 2011 (St. Paul, MN). Sioux senior forward Matt Frattin broke a 3-3 tie in the third period to propel North Dakota to the championship game of the WCHA Final Five. The goal was Frattin’s 34th of the season. UND winger Danny Kristo also scored in his first game back since suffering a case of frostbite on his right foot.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: March 1, 2009. One night after skating to a 4-4 sister kisser, the two teams went to overtime yet again. Colorado College started the extra session with 1:50 of power play time, but UND killed the penalty and went on the offensive. Sioux center Darcy Zajac potted the game winner with 95 seconds remaining in the extra frame.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1997. UND defeated Colorado College, 6-2, in the Frozen Four Semifinals in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Two nights later, North Dakota downed Boston University, 6-4, to claim its sixth NCAA Championship. North Dakota and Colorado College also met in the 2001 East Regional (Worcester, Mass.), with UND prevailing, 4-1.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 135-76-10 (.633), including a remarkable 80-19-6 (.790) edge in games played in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 7-2-1 (.750) in the last ten meetings between the teams.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has lost three of four one-goal games this season. Colorado College has nine games remaining against the top four teams in the WCHA (Minnesota, Minnesota-Duluth, Denver, and Nebraska-Omaha), Only nine Sioux skaters have appeared in more than one game against Colorado College in their career. The Tigers have outscored opponents 15-6 in third periods this season.

The Prediction

I have a feeling that this won’t go well for North Dakota. The only two advantages that UND has are a home crowd and the ability to match up defensively with the Schwartz line. With the students gone for Thanksgiving break, it’s down to one advantage. The Fighting Sioux will keep one game close and get blown out in the other. UND could win a tight game on Friday, but I’ll call it a tie instead. 3-3 tie, CC 5-1.

Weekend Preview: UND at Bemidji State

It was a tough first go-round in the WCHA for Bemidji State. After competing in the CHA for eleven seasons and making the NCAA tournament in four of their final six CHA campaigns (including a Frozen Four appearance), the Beavers stumbled to an 8-15-5 mark in conference play last season.

Four of those WCHA losses came at the hands of North Dakota, who outscored BSU 20-7 in four games. Bemidji State got it going at the end of the season, however, and collected a road playoff sweep of Nebraska-Omaha and a victory over national champion Minnesota-Duluth on their way to the semifinals of the WCHA Final Five. Head coach Tom Serratore is hoping to build on that success and the experience of having been through a season in the toughest conference in the country.

For Dave Hakstol’s North Dakota squad, the injury news continues to get worse. Freshman forward Rocco Grimaldi (lower body injury) has been shut down for at least six weeks. The team is hopeful that he will be available for the stretch run, but season-ending surgery is also an option.

UND finds itself tied for eleventh in the league standings and needs to pick up wins this weekend if they have any hope of making a run at the top half of the WCHA.

In the unbalanced league schedule, Bemidji State will not make the return trip to Grand Forks during the 2011-2012 regular season.

Bemidji State Team Profile

Head Coach: Tom Serratore (11th season at BSU, 182-153-39 .539)
Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 4-7-1 overal, 2-5-1 WCHA (9th)
Last Season: 15-18-5 overall, 8-15-5 WCHA (t-9th)

Team Offense: 2.58 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.33 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.5% (7 of 40)
Penalty Kill: 82.7% (43 of 52)

Key Players: Junior F Jordan George (6-2-8), Senior F Shea Walters (5-3-8), Senior F Ben Kinne (4-2-6), Senior D Brad Hunt (2-8-10), Senior G Dan Bakala (2-4-1, 3.02 GAA, .898 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 190-99-28, .644)
Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 3-6-1 overall, 1-5-0 WCHA (t-11th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 2.40 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.30 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 17.6% (9 of 51)
Penalty Kill: 82.6% (38 of 46)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (4-8-12) Junior F Corban Knight (4-7-11), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (5-4-9), Sophomore D Derek Forbort (1-2-3), Senior D Ben Blood (1-2-3), Freshman D Nick Mattson (2-4-6), Senior G Brad Eidsness (1-1-0, 3.31 GAA, .895 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: February 27, 2011 (Grand Forks, ND). Four of the six seniors in the lineup scored a goal as the homestanding Sioux wrapped up a four game season sweep of the Beavers. UND won the Sunday afternoon contest 5-1 after downing BSU 5-2 on Saturday afternoon.

Last Meeting in Bemidji: October 16th, 2010. North Dakota throttled Bemidji State 5-2 one night after spoiling the grand opening of the Bemidji Regional Events Center (now known as Sanford Center) by the identical score. UND scored two second period goals in 1:30 to take the lead.

Most Important Meeting: October 15, 2010 (Bemidji, MN). In the first game played at the BREC, North Dakota spotted BSU the opening goal less than two minutes into the contest and then steamrolled the Beavers 5-2. The Fighting Sioux outshot their fellow Green-and-Whiters 38-14.

Last Ten: North Dakota has won the last ten meetings between the teams by a combined score of 43-18. One of the victories came in overtime.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 21-1-1 (.935), including a perfect 7-0-0 in games played in Bemidji. BSU’s lone victory over North Dakota came on February 7, 1970.

Game News and Notes:

Due to Disney on Ice on Friday night, this WCHA series will be played at 7:07 on Saturday night and 5:07 Sunday afternoon. Bemidji has been outscored 16-7 in third periods this season. UND head coach Dave Hakstol needs ten more victories to secure 200 wins in his coaching career. BSU has not scored a power play goal since October 22nd, a span of 15 unsuccessful man advantage opportunities. Sioux forward Danny Kristo was held scoreless against Minnesota, his first weekend without a point this season.

The Prediction

Here’s hoping that North Dakota’s play on the ice this weekend is more Beauty than Beast. UND needs at least three points this weekend to start making headway in the league race. Bemidji has never had success against the Fighting Sioux, and although the teams are closer this year than ever before, I give the edge to UND. 3-3 tie, UND 4-2.

Weekend Preview: UND at Minnesota

During the Dave Hakstol era at North Dakota, the Fighting Sioux have done everything but win a national title. For Minnesota head coach Don Lucia, it’s a case of “what have you done for me lately?” The Golden Gophers’ titles in 2002 and 2003 seem like so long ago, with many fans calling for a change, despite Lucia’s recent contract extension.

Since Hakstol has been the head coach at UND (beginning in 2004-05), he boasts a 10-7-3 (.575) record against Minnesota in the regular season. More impressively, his playoff mark against the Gophers stands at 5-2-0 (.714). The two losses came on Blake Wheeler’s overtime winner at the 2007 Final Five and in the middle game of a 2010 WCHA playoff series in Grand Forks. Hakstol’s teams have ended Minnesota’s season three times in his seven seasons as a head coach: 2004-05 Frozen Four semifinal, 2006-07 West Regional final, and the 2009-10 WCHA first round playoff series.

Over those seven seasons, Hakstol has made the NCAA tournament seven times (Minnesota: four, missing the last three), has won the MacNaughton Cup twice and the Broadmoor Trophy three times, and has brought his team to the Frozen Four five times. Lucia, by contrast, has claimed one Frozen Four visit, two MacNaughton Cup titles, and one Broadmoor Trophy since 2004-05.

It’s true that the games this weekend are about the players, not the coaches. For Minnesota, sophomore forward Erik Haula leads the nation in scoring, freshman forward Kyle Rau leads all first-year players in scoring, and senior goaltender Kent Patterson has all-world numbers (1.74 goals-against average, a save percentage of almost 94%, and four shutouts on the season). Minnesota is scoring every which way but loose, converting over 35% of power play opportunities and boasting a plus-9 differential in special teams situations.

North Dakota figured to have two great goaltenders in the rotation this season, and so far they haven’t had one. Neither Aaron Dell nor Brad Eidsness has stolen a game for the Green and White this year, and they’ll have to be better if UND hopes to steal a point or two this weekend.

For five Sioux players, it’s a homecoming of sorts. On the blueline, senior Ben Blood (Plymouth), junior Joe Gleason (Edina), and freshman Nick Mattson (Chanhassen) all hail from the Twin Cities area, and they are joined by junior forward Danny Kristo (Eden Prairie) and freshman forward Connor Gaarder (Edina).

Minnesota Team Profile

Head Coach: Don Lucia (13th season at Minnesota, 297-160-53, .634)
National Rankings: #5/#5
This Season: 7-1-0 overall, 4-0-0 WCHA (1st)
Last Season: 16-14-6 overall (missed NCAA tournament), 13-10-5 WCHA (5th)

Team Offense: 5.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.75 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 35.9% (14 of 39)
Penalty Kill: 87.5% (35 of 40)

Key Players: Sophomore F Erik Haula (7-10-17), Freshman F Kyle Rau (7-6-13), Sophomore F Nick Bjugstad (6-6-12), Sophomore D Nate Schmidt (1-10-11), Sophomore D Mark Alt (1-4-5), Senior G Kent Patterson (7-1-0, 1.74 GAA, .939 SV%, 4 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 190-97-28, .648)
National Rankings: #15/#15
This Season: 3-4-1 overall, 1-3-0 WCHA (t-9th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 2.75 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.5% (8 of 39)
Penalty Kill: 78.1% (25 of 32)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (4-8-12) Junior F Corban Knight (4-6-10), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (4-4-8), Sophomore D Derek Forbort (1-2-3), Senior D Ben Blood (1-2-3), Freshman D Nick Mattson (2-3-5), Senior G Brad Eidsness (1-1-0, 3.31 GAA, .895 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: January 15, 2011 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota rattled off four unanswered goals to build a commanding 4-1 lead and withstood 80 seconds of 5 on 3 at the end of the game to earn the victory and a split of the weekend series. Minnesota took the opener, 3-2.

Last meeting in Minneapolis: (January 16, 2010). Despite controlling play for much of the game, North Dakota fell victim to four goals in a six minute stretch of the second period and couldn’t recover, falling 5-1 to the homestanding Gophers. The teams skated to a 3-3 tie one night earlier.

Most important meeting: March 24, 1979 (Detroit, MI). North Dakota and Minnesota met to decide the national championship, and the Gophers prevailed, 4-3.

All-time: Minnesota leads the all-time series by a slim margin, 133-128-14 (.509).

Recent history: North Dakota is 7-3-3 (.654) in the last thirteen games between the schools.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota has been outscored in every period this season. Minnesota has outscored opponents 13-2 in the opening twenty minutes of games this year. North Dakota is five goals away from notching 10,000 goals in program history, dating back to 1946-47. UND head coach Dave Hakstol is 4-2-2 (.625) in his head coaching career at Mariucci Arena.

The Prediction

North Dakota will need to play two complete hockey games to compete for points this weekend. Both nights will be close, and UND could earn a split this weekend, but I feel like Minnesota will tie up Saturday’s game late. MN 5-2, 3-3 tie.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

Weekend Preview: UND vs. St. Cloud State

St. Cloud State would like to forget all about last season. Entering the year, the Huskies had high expectations for a top-tier finish in the WCHA and a deep tournament run.

Instead, SCSU sputtered to a 9th place finish in league play and bowed out in the first round of the WCHA playoffs at Duluth. Perhaps most disappointing was the Huskies’ record on home ice, finishing with a 6-8-4 record at the National Hockey Center.

North Dakota had a dream season end in heartbreak at the hands of the Michigan Wolverines, one game short of the NCAA championship game. UND is a much different team this season after losing nine players from last year’s squad (forwards Matt Frattin, Evan Trupp, Brad Malone, Brent Davidson, Brett Hextall and Jason Gregoire; and defensemen Chay Genoway, Jake Marto, and Derrick LaPoint).

In my WCHA season predictions, I have North Dakota finishing 3rd and St. Cloud State ending up in 9th place once again.

This weekend, the teams will be earning points for the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup, a traveling fan trophy awarded to the team which wins the four-game season series. The trophy will be awarded in St. Cloud on January 21, 2012. North Dakota has won at least a share of the Challenge Cup each of the past five seasons.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: (Bob Motzko, 7th season at SCSU, 122-95-30, .555)
National Ranking: NR/NR
This Season: 2-3-1 overall, 0-0-0 WCHA (8th)
Last Season: 15-18-5 overall, 11-13 4 WCHA (9th)

Team Offense: 3.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 27.3% (6 of 22)
Penalty Kill: 72.7% (16 of 22)

Key Players: Senior F Drew LaBlanc (2-8-10), Senior F Jared Festler (4-3-7), Junior F Ben Hanowski (2-5-7), Freshman D Jarrod Rabey (2-2-4), Sophomore D Nick Jensen (1-3-4), Junior G Mike Lee (2-2-1, 3.34 GAA, .896 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 189-96-28, .649)
National Rankings: #12/#13
This Season: 2-3-1 overall, 0-2-0 WCHA (10th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.17 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.83 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.4% (6 of 28)
Penalty Kill: 74.1% (20 of 27)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (4-7-11) Junior F Corban Knight (3-5-8), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (3-4-7), Sophomore D Derek Forbort (1-1-2), Senior D Ben Blood (1-1-2), Senior G Brad Eidsness (1-1-0, 3.31 GAA, .895 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: February 19, 2011 (St. Cloud, MN). One night after Matt Frattin’s late goal salvaged a tie and earned North Dakota the Challenge Cup, UND’s Brett Hextall broke a 2-2 tie early in the third and the Fighting Sioux held on to defeat the homestanding Huskies, 3-2. The victory was the first of eleven wins in a row for North Dakota.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: December 4, 2010. UND took out the black jerseys at home (a rare occurrence) and steamrolled SCSU for five goals in the first period alone. The Sioux received a standing ovation from their fans as they left the ice after the opening twenty minutes. The final score was 6-2, and North Dakota earned the home sweep.

Most Important Meeting: March 17, 2001 (St. Paul, MN). St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 56-29-11 (.641), and holds a record of 29-12-5 (.685) in games played in Grand Forks. North Dakota is 7-2-1 (.750) in the last ten contests, with both losses coming by a single goal. The combined score of the past ten games is UND 47 – SCSU 23.

Game News and Notes

Danny Kristo is tied for third in the country with 11 points, and has collected 34 points (11 goals, 23 assists) in his last 23 games. North Dakota has not started 0-3-0 in the WCHA since 1989-90. Under the new 12-team WCHA schedule rotation, the Fighting Sioux and Huskies continue to play four regular season games each year. With eight goals this weekend, UND would reach the 10,000 goal milestone in program history.

The Prediction

North Dakota will be looking to avenge two close losses at Wisconsin last weekend, but the Huskies will not make it easy. UND will not break through until Saturday night. 3-3 tie, UND 5-1.

On a Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of SiouxSports.com, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Muddy Rivers ballroom (inside the GuestHouse) in downtown Grand Forks. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, win fabulous door prizes, and view the Challenge Cup. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its schedule rotation, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season. St. Cloud State and North Dakota were partnered up in a scheduling system that ended in 2009-10.

Last season, even though the WCHA expanded to 12 teams (adding Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha) and implemented a new rotating schedule, UND and SCSU continue to play four games each year. For a complete look at the new WCHA schedule, click here.

Over the past eight seasons, the fans have made their mark on the partnership between the schools. The UND/SCSU rivalry has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

Challenge Cup

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is awarded to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games. As you may be able to see in the photo above, the winning team is engraved for each year. UND won the Challenge Cup in 2005, going 3-0-1 against the Huskies. St. Cloud took the trophy back in 2006, sporting a record of 3-1-0 against North Dakota. In 2007, the Sioux won two games and tied the other two, collecting six points and the Challenge Cup. The next season, the teams shared the Cup, with UND and SCSU each winning one game and tying the other two. In 2009, North Dakota sprinted to the lead in the Challenge Cup race by winning both games in Grand Forks but needed a Saturday victory in St. Cloud to salvage a split on the weekend and reclaim the Cup. The next season (2009-10), both series were splits, and the Challenge Cup was shared once again.

Last year, North Dakota swept the early December series in Grand Forks and earned a win and a tie at St. Cloud in February, outscoring the Huskies by a combined 15-8.

If you’re keeping track at home, UND has won the Cup four times, St. Cloud has claimed the Cup once, and the schools have shared the Challenge Cup twice. No school has ever swept the four game season series.

The Challenge Cup will be on display at the SiouxSports.com pre-game social this Saturday, October 29th from 3:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Muddy Rivers ballroom inside the GuestHouse (701 First Avenue North) in downtown Grand Forks. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of this hockey rivalry and win fabulous door prizes. The event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

For a complete preview of this weekend’s action, click here.  We hope to see you at this event. Here’s to hockey!