Thursday night PWR possibilties update, Sioux seem a lock for NCAAs

The Sioux now seem a lock for the NCAA championship and St. Cloud State’s season is done.

With Mich. Tech and St. Cloud both eliminated, it seems the WCHA can only be won by a team in the top 16, thus only 4 slots can be taken by autobids outside the top 16. So, #12 in the PairWise Rankings should be safe.

Remembering from the Deeper dive into whether UND will make the NCAA tournament that UND can do no worse than #12 after defeating St. Cloud, the Sioux now seem a lock for the NCAA tournament.

Here are the remaining possibilities for the key 19:

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall Win none Win all
Boston College 1 76.0%
2 23.5%
3 0.5%		 1 76.3%
2 23.7%		 1 76.9%
2 23.1%
Michigan 1 0.3%
2 65.2%
3 27.9%
4 5.0%
5 1.4%
6 0.2%		 2 49.4%
3 33.3%
4 12.4%
5 4.3%
6 0.6%		 2 75.0%
3 25.0%
Miami 1 0.3%
2 2.7%
3 16.6%
4 15.3%
5 13.0%
6 12.5%
7 10.4%
8 8.6%
9 7.4%
10 7.1%
11 5.0%
12 1.2%
13 0.1%		 5 0.1%
6 3.3%
7 13.9%
8 21.0%
9 21.8%
10 21.2%
11 14.9%
12 3.5%
13 0.2%		 1 1.2%
2 10.7%
3 56.9%
4 28.1%
5 2.9%
6 0.2%
UMD 1 23.4%
2 2.7%
3 3.0%
4 8.8%
5 13.6%
6 13.0%
7 16.6%
8 13.4%
9 4.6%
10 0.8%
11 0.1%		 3 0.0%
4 1.7%
5 8.5%
6 19.7%
7 32.4%
8 26.7%
9 9.1%
10 1.6%
11 0.3%		 1 93.6%
2 6.4%
Ferris State 3 5.5%
4 17.6%
5 29.0%
6 28.8%
7 14.9%
8 4.0%
9 0.3%		 n/a n/a
Boston University 2 3.1%
3 13.6%
4 10.2%
5 7.3%
6 7.7%
7 10.8%
8 15.3%
9 16.0%
10 10.4%
11 4.4%
12 1.1%
13 0.1%		 5 0.0%
6 1.1%
7 10.6%
8 25.5%
9 30.8%
10 20.7%
11 8.7%
12 2.3%
13 0.3%		 2 12.5%
3 49.5%
4 29.5%
5 7.3%
6 1.1%
7 0.1%
UMN 2 0.6%
3 12.2%
4 12.2%
5 8.1%
6 7.7%
7 11.9%
8 17.2%
9 17.4%
10 9.7%
11 2.7%
12 0.3%
13 0.0%		 5 0.1%
6 2.5%
7 12.0%
8 27.2%
9 32.9%
10 19.3%
11 5.4%
12 0.5%
13 0.0%		 2 2.2%
3 45.2%
4 37.3%
5 12.8%
6 1.9%
7 0.5%
8 0.1%
Maine 3 1.0%
4 5.3%
5 8.7%
6 7.5%
7 2.6%
8 1.2%
9 4.9%
10 13.7%
11 24.0%
12 22.9%
13 8.1%
14 0.2%		 10 5.9%
11 34.7%
12 42.9%
13 16.1%
14 0.4%		 3 3.8%
4 21.2%
5 34.8%
6 29.8%
7 9.9%
8 0.4%
9 0.0%
UND 2 0.5%
3 10.0%
4 10.4%
5 4.3%
6 4.1%
7 7.1%
8 11.0%
9 19.1%
10 20.1%
11 11.6%
12 1.8%		 6 0.1%
7 1.8%
8 10.8%
9 27.6%
10 34.4%
11 21.7%
12 3.6%		 2 1.9%
3 40.1%
4 41.7%
5 14.5%
6 1.8%
7 0.1%
Mass.-Lowell 6 0.6%
7 3.8%
8 10.6%
9 12.3%
10 17.3%
11 27.8%
12 22.0%
13 5.5%
14 0.1%		 n/a n/a
Michigan State 13 11.4%
14 40.7%
15 38.4%
16 4.2%
17 5.3%		 n/a n/a
Western Michigan 9 0.0%
10 0.2%
11 1.7%
12 3.7%
13 13.5%
14 33.7%
15 22.6%
16 16.6%
17 8.0%		 13 1.2%
14 8.9%
15 16.2%
16 49.8%
17 23.9%		 9 0.0%
10 0.7%
11 6.8%
12 14.8%
13 35.5%
14 42.3%
Denver 3 2.1%
4 4.9%
5 7.3%
6 6.6%
7 3.6%
8 1.5%
9 4.1%
10 9.0%
11 11.8%
12 31.0%
13 15.0%
14 3.0%		 10 0.0%
11 5.9%
12 58.1%
13 29.8%
14 6.1%		 3 8.6%
4 19.7%
5 29.2%
6 26.3%
7 13.9%
8 2.2%
9 0.1%
Northern Michigan 13 1.4%
14 10.4%
15 32.5%
16 55.6%
17 0.1%		 n/a n/a
Union 2 1.8%
3 7.6%
4 10.0%
5 6.2%
6 6.8%
7 9.5%
8 10.0%
9 11.4%
10 11.4%
11 7.6%
12 6.1%
13 11.4%
14 0.3%		 6 0.0%
7 0.2%
8 1.8%
9 9.3%
10 18.1%
11 17.7%
12 17.8%
13 34.3%
14 0.8%		 2 7.1%
3 30.4%
4 38.2%
5 17.5%
6 5.4%
7 1.3%
8 0.1%
Merrimack 14 0.0%
15 1.3%
16 15.6%
17 72.2%
18 11.0%		 n/a n/a
SCSU 20 0.0%
21 0.7%
22 13.1%
23 43.9%
24 29.3%
25 11.8%
26 1.3%		 n/a n/a
Cornell 4 0.2%
5 1.2%
6 4.6%
7 9.0%
8 7.3%
9 2.5%
10 0.3%
11 3.4%
12 9.8%
13 33.5%
14 11.5%
15 5.2%
16 7.8%
17 3.8%
18 0.0%		 12 0.7%
13 24.9%
14 23.9%
15 15.5%
16 23.5%
17 11.5%
18 0.0%		 4 0.8%
5 4.7%
6 18.2%
7 35.9%
8 29.2%
9 10.0%
10 1.3%
11 0.0%
Harvard 15 0.0%
16 0.2%
17 10.7%
18 2.9%
19 23.2%
20 13.7%
21 11.7%
22 2.6%
23 4.6%
24 6.7%
25 7.4%
26 8.5%
27 7.8%
28 0.0%		 22 1.8%
23 8.8%
24 18.3%
25 22.2%
26 25.6%
27 23.3%
28 0.0%		 15 0.1%
16 0.9%
17 42.8%
18 11.4%
19 44.7%

A look at Denver’s NCAA chances

Denver is well-positioned to make the NCAA tournament. Winning a game or two would make it a near certainty, though losing in the opening round would still leave the Pioneers with a better than 50% chance of advancing.

Denver’s possible final PWR
PWR Win 0 Win 1 Win 2 Win 3
1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.4%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31.8%
6 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 25.4%
7 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.8%
8 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 1.1%
9 0.0% 0.2% 19.5% 0.0%
10 1.3% 7.3% 39.0% 0.0%
11 12.1% 28.1% 30.2% 0.0%
12 37.3% 41.5% 5.2% 0.0%
13 36.0% 19.2% 0.1% 0.0%
14 13.4% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%

Because Denver has some potential rankings that are on the bubble, Denver does have an interest in a limited number of conferences being won by teams that won’t be in the top 16. Lists of those are available in previous articles, such as A detailed look at NMU’s chances.

Case-by-case possibilities for Denver’s PWR

Because Denver still have games to play, those are the biggest determinants of Denver’s final ranking.

If Denver makes it to the championship game vs. Minnesota or St. Cloud, the Pioneers will finish at worst #12, good enough to make the NCAA tournament (since the WCHA will be won by a team in the top 16).

Denver PWR if advances to championship game vs. Minnesota or St. Cloud
PWR Lose
Championship		 Win
Championship
3 0.00% 7.50%
4 0.00% 20.04%
5 0.00% 31.32%
6 0.07% 27.87%
7 1.28% 11.75%
8 6.47% 1.49%
9 23.29% 0.03%
10 41.14% 0.00%
11 24.77% 0.00%
12 2.99% 0.00%

However, if Denver makes it to the championship game vs. UND, the Pioneers could finish #13 if they lose. Again, the WCHA would be won by a team in the top 16, so the only way #13 would miss is if all the other conferences were won by teams outside the top 16. Though possible, that’s a very unlikely scenario — in outcomes in which the Pioneers face UND in the championship game and lose, about .3% of them leave Denver out of the NCAA tournament.

Denver PWR if advances to championship game vs. UND
PWR Lose
Championship		 Win
Championship
3 0 5717
4 0 10894
5 0 12259
6 0 6597
7 17 1397
8 295 0
9 2980 0
10 11967 0
11 17097 0
12 4378 0
13 130 0

If Denver wins its opening game but then loses to Duluth, #12-#14 are distinctly possible. In that scenario, Denver would care most about tournaments being won by teams in the top 16 so #12 and #13 make the tournament. Paradoxically, in terms of final PWR ranking, Denver would be most helped in this situation by St. Cloud St knocking off UND (though there then would be the accompanying risk of SCSU taking the WCHA championship and a slot). Denver is currently holding onto the UND comparison by an RPI thread.

Denver PWR if loses to Minnesota-Duluth
PWR Likelihood
9 0.2%
10 7.3%
11 28.1%
12 41.5%
13 19.2%
14 3.8%

Finally, if Denver loses the opening round, the Pioneers are most likely to finish #12-#14 (as can be seen in the table at the top of this article). In those situations, Denver would again mostly he hoping teams in the top 16 win all the conferences.

There are, otherwise, a lot of combinations that land Denver in the 9-12 range instead of 13-14. Most reliable is Miami defeating Western Michigan and Harvard defeating Cornell.

Denver PWR if loses to Mich. Tech, Miami defeats W. Michigan, and Harvard defeats Cornell
PWR Likelihood
10 2.3%
11 23.3%
12 63.3%
13 11.0%

My apologies for any omissions, this one was a bit rushed to get it out before the games begin!

WCHA Final Five Preview: UND vs. St. Cloud State

After a three-game losing skid at the hands of North Dakota and Minnesota, the St. Cloud State Huskies have found their stride, going 7-2-1 in their last ten games. During that stretch, SCSU grabbed three points against Duluth in a weekend series and swept Wisconsin on the road before securing a home playoff sweep of Nebraska–Omaha to advance to the WCHA Final Five.

North Dakota has been on fire for almost four months. After suffering a 1-0 defeat at the hands of homestanding Bemidji State, UND has gone 18-5-2 to propel itself back into the national playoff picture. Dave Hakstol’s squad has done all this despite being decimated by injuries. The Green and White have regularly skated only eleven forwards, with half of that group consisting of walk-on players and converted defensemen.

These two teams skated to two splits in the WCHA regular season, with each claiming a share of the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup. Playoff results do not count in the race for the Challenge Cup, but bragging rights and a date with Minnesota in the WCHA semifinals are both on the line Thursday night.

When the 16-team NCAA tournament field is announced on Sunday, expect North Dakota’s name to be called regardless of the results this weekend. St. Cloud State, on the other hand, would need to win the Final Five Championship in order to secure a bid to the national tournament.

UND has won the past two WCHA Final Five championships, defeating St. Cloud State in 2010 and downing Denver in 2011. SCSU’s lone WCHA playoff title came in 2001, when the Huskies defeated North Dakota in overtime.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: (Bob Motzko, 7th season at SCSU, 137-108-34, .552)
Pairwise Ranking: 19th
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 17-16-5 overall, 12-12-4 WCHA (6th)
Last Season: 15-18-5 overall, 11-13 4 WCHA (9th)

Team Offense: 3.13 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.63 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.5% (31 of 138)
Penalty Kill: 77.9% (106 of 136)

Key Players: Senior F Jared Festler (15-19-34), Junior F Ben Hanowski (22-20-42), Senior F Travis Novak (12-13-25), Freshman D Andrew Prochno (5-23-28), Sophomore D Nick Jensen (6-26-32), Junior G Mike Lee (8-5-2, 2.24 GAA, .930 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 209-105-30, .651)
Pairwise Ranking: t-11th
National Rankings: #12/#12
This Season: 22-12-3 overall, 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.14 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.65 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.4% (36 of 168)
Penalty Kill: 81.5% (123 of 151)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (17-23-40) Junior F Corban Knight (13-22-35), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (23-17-40), Freshman D Nick Mattson (6-12-18), Senior D Ben Blood (3-15-18), Senior G Brad Eidsness (8-3-1, 2.17 GAA, .920 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 21, 2012 (St. Cloud, MN). One night after the Huskies secured a 3-1 home victory over North Dakota, the Fighting Sioux won a tight 3-2 contest to claim a road split and a share of the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup. UND survived a review of a Ben Hanowski non-goal with under 35 seconds remaining to hold on for the win.

Last Meeting at the WCHA Final Five: March 20, 2010 (St. Paul, MN), UND spotted St. Cloud State a 2-0 lead less than a minute into the hockey game but outscored the Huskies 5-1 the rest of the way en route to a 5-3 victory and the Broadmoor Trophy. North Dakota won three games in three nights to secure the title, becoming just the second team to ever accomplish the feat (Duluth, 2009).

Most Important Meeting: March 17, 2001 (St. Paul, MN). In the game that started the rivalry, St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 58-31-11 (.635), with a 9-2 (.818) edge in postseason play.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 7-2-1 in the last ten meetings between the schools.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota forward Corban Knight has 14 points in 13 career games against St. Cloud State. UND is appearing in their tenth consecutive WCHA Final Five and are attempting to become the first team in league history to win three consecutive playoff championships. St. Cloud State goaltender Mike Lee stopped 59 of 60 shots he faced last weekend against UNO.Patrick McGovern’s Pub will host all UND pre-game events, beginning two hours prior to any game that UND is playing this weekend.

The Prediction

The Fighting Sioux will be attempting to end another team’s season for the second consecutive weekend. St. Cloud State and UND have had some epic battles in the Final Five, and this one will be no different. The two teams will be tied late, but North Dakota’s top-end talent will make the difference. UND 4, SCSU 3.

Bonus Prediction:

In the earlier Thursday semifinal, Michigan Tech will have the crowd behind them and will jump to an early lead before falling late to the Pioneers of Denver. The four Denver fans in attendance will be quite pleased. DU 4, MTU 2.

A detailed look at NMU’s chances

Assuming all game outcomes are equally likely, Northern Michigan stands something like a 15% chance of making that tournament.

From my previous PWR possibilities article, Northern Michigan’s overall possible final PWR rankings:

Possible PWR outcomes for NMU
PWR Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios
13 15297 1.3%
14 120251 10.2%
15 388264 32.9%
16 610668 51.8%
17 45168 3.8%

Because 13-16 are all on the bubble, it’s most important for Northern Michigan that a limited number of conferences are won by teams that won’t be in the top 16.

Again, those are:

WCHA (2/6)
Michigan Tech
St. Cloud St

Hockey East (1/4)
Providence

ECAC (2/4)
Harvard
Colgate

CCHA (1/4)
Bowling Green

Atlantic Hockey (4/4)
RIT
Niagara
Mercyhurst
Air Force

So, while every conference could conceivably be won by a team not in the top 16, only Atlantic Hockey is guaranteed to be so. So, the last at-large team will be somewhere between PWR 11 and 15. If 3 conferences are won by non-top 16, #13 in the PWR will be in. If 2 conferences are won by non-top 16, #14 PWR will be in. If only AHA is won by a non-top 16, #15 PWR will be in.

Odds of NMU advancing, based on final PWR rank
PWR Odds of NMU
having rank		 Odds of
rank advancing		 Odds of
rank or
better advancing		 Odds of
NMU advancing
via this scenario
15 32.90% 18.75% 18.8% 6.169%
14 10.20% 40.63% 59.4% 6.056%
13 1.30% 30.21% 89.6% 1.165%
12 9.4% 99.0%
11 1.0% 100.0%
Total odds of NMU advancing 13.39%

Note that the odds of each rank advancing assume that each team has an equal shot at winning each game; in other words, they’re actually the share of outcomes in which each rank advances. That table also naively assumes the outcomes that determine NMU’s final PWR are completely independent from the outcomes that determine which PWR ranks advance. That is, of course, not true. But, because none of the scenarios (described below) require unranked teams to advance, it’s a fine rough estimate.

What influences NMU’s final PWR

Because NMU doesn’t have any games remaining, the Wildcats are the mercy of others.

Looking at NMU’s PWR Details, there are two very obvious comparisons that NMU is currently losing but could take (because the comparison is close enough and the other team is still playing):

  • Cornell
  • Western Michigan

It’s also apparently helpful for RIT to defeat Air Force. It’s not immediately obviously why this is the case (both are TUCs over whom NMU is winning the comparison, but so are all the other teams NMU is trying to gain on), but the models say NMU finishes noticeably higher in those scenarios.

A deeper dive into the scenarios

Miami defeating Western Michigan is huge for NMU. Note that it would eliminate a huge number of the #16-17 scenarios, while preserving all of the #13 scenarios and most of the #14 scenarios.

PWR outcomes for NMU if Miami defeats Western Michigan
PWR Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios
13 15297 2.6%
14 102442 17.4%
15 246385 41.8%
16 200993 34.1%
17 24707 4.2%

Western Michigan losing a second game is also pretty helpful. It drops a big majority of the #16-#17 outcomes and about half of the #15. This isn’t completely necessary, in that about 1/3 of the #13 outcomes and about 40% of the #14 outcomes exist outside this scenario, but this is a very attractive scenario for NMU.

PWR outcomes for NMU if Western Michigan also loses the consolation game
  To Michigan   To Bowling Green
PWR Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios		   Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios
13 4992 5.1%   4992 5.1%
14 30630 31.2%   30685 31.2%
15 61242 62.3%   61153 62.2%
16 1440 1.5%   1474 1.5%

Harvard defeating Cornell looks useful for NMU. It eliminates a lot of the 15-17 scenarios while leaving most of the 13-14 scenarios in tact.

PWR outcomes for NMU if Harvard defeats Cornell
PWR Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios
13 15297 2.6%
14 75380 12.8%
15 221000 37.5%
16 257768 43.7%
17 20379 3.5%

However, what’s not obvious from that table is that almost all the good scenarios come about when Cornell loses a 2nd game and almost all the bad scenarios come about when Cornell wins the 2nd game (after losing the 1st).

PWR outcomes for NMU if Cornell also loses the consolation game
  To Union   To Colgate
PWR Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios		   Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios
13 12993 13.2%   2304 2.3%
14 30915 31.4%   29014 29.5%
15 48434 49.3%   66923 68.1%
16 5959 6.1%   63 0.1%
17 3 0.0%      

Note that I haven’t said anything about the RIT/Air Force outcome mentioned above. While it does indeed shift NMU’s chances of a 13-14 up quite a bit, about 2/3 of the #13 scenarios and 3/4 of the #14 scenarios exist outside of this outcome.

PWR outcomes for NMU if RIT defeats Niagara, Air Force defeats Mercyhurst, and RIT defeats Air Force
PWR Number of
scenarios		 Percent of
scenarios
13 4942 3.4%
14 30972 21.0%
15 54783 37.2%
16 53420 36.2%
17 3339 2.3%

So, Air Force defeating RIT is a nice outcome for NMU, but by no means necessary.

Too long, didn’t read

Bottom line? NMU’s best shot is for Cornell to lose twice and Western Michigan to lose at least once (though twice is a little better). That scenario includes all of the #13 possibilities, about 1/3 of the #14 possibilities, about 1/5 of the #15 possibilities, and a miniscule chance of being #16.

A deeper dive into whether UND will make the NCAA tournament

If UND wins the WCHA tournament, the Sioux will be ensured an NCAA tournament appearance.

If the Sioux bow out early, they will be at the mercy of their final PWR ranking and the outcomes of other conferences’ tournaments (which will determine how many teams get in on the basis of their PWR ranking).

The good news is that the Sioux are very well positioned, and would miss the NCAA tournament in only a few percent of the remaining possible scenarios. For (much) more detail on what it would take, read on.

How many teams will make the tournament at large?

16 teams total will make the tournament. The winners of each conference tournament are guaranteed a spot, then the remaining spots are filled with the top teams from the PWR Rankings.

So, if only 1 team that’s not in the top 16 wins a conference tournament, the top 15 in the PWR will make it. If 3 teams that aren’t in the top 16 win conference tournaments, the top 13 in PWR will also make it.

Here are the conference tournament participants, with those that could win without climbing to the top 16 in PWR marked.

WCHA
* Michigan Tech
Denver
Minnesota Duluth
* St. Cloud St
North Dakota
Minnesota

Hockey East
Maine
Boston University
* Providence
Boston College

ECAC
* Harvard
Cornell
* Colgate
Union

CCHA
Miami
Western Michigan
* Bowling Green
Michigan

Atlantic Hockey
* RIT
* Niagara
* Mercyhurst
* Air Force

So, the PWR ranking a team needs to make the tournament at large is 16 minus however many conferences are won by teams marked above. 13 is generally a pretty good guess, but it could obviously vary.

If UND loses to St. Cloud

This scenario is, obviously, the one in which UND’s tournament chances are the most threatened.

UND PWR ranking share of outcomes if UND loses to SCSU
7 0%
8 0%
9 7%
10 26%
11 30%
12 28%
13 8%
14 1%
15 0%
16 0%

Fortunately, things still look pretty good for UND, even with this outcome. The odds of UND falling to 13, which is likely to be safe, are only 8%. In only about 1% of scenarios does UND fall to 14.

By far the game that matters most to UND in this scenario is BU defeating Maine.

UND PWR ranking share of outcomes if UND loses to SCSU, by BU/Maine outcome
UND Rank If BU
defeats Maine		 If Maine
defeats BU
7 0.0% 0.0%
8 0.2% 0.0%
9 14.6% 0.2%
10 42.3% 8.9%
11 33.5% 27.0%
12 9.0% 46.2%
13 0.5% 16.4%
14 0.0% 1.3%
15 0.0% 0.0%

Other outcomes that would help UND in this scenario include:

  • Michigan Tech over Denver
  • Harvard over Cornell
  • Harvard over Union
  • Colgate over Union
  • Michigan Tech over Minnesota-Duluth
  • Colgate over Cornell

Play with that information a bit in the YATC calculators and you should get a pretty good idea of what UND would need to have happen.

If UND defeats St. Cloud

UND PWR ranking share of outcomes if UND defeats SCSU
5 0.0%
6 0.1%
7 1.9%
8 12.7%
9 32.9%
10 35.8%
11 14.7%
12 1.8%
13 0.0%

This isn’t quite mathematically a lock. #12 can miss the tournament if all 5 conferences are won by a team not in the top 16. Since this scenario requires SCSU to be eliminated, the only remaining WCHA team that could win without being top 16 is Michigan Tech. Providence and Bowling Green are also the only teams capable of winning their conferences without rising into the top 16.

So, it appears that if the Sioux beat SCSU, they can only miss the tournament if Michigan Tech, Providence, and Bowling Green all win their conference tournaments and Harvard or Colgate win the ECAC.

If UND defeats St. Cloud and Minnesota

Given the above, Sioux fans are likely to expect this scenario to be a lock for UND. But, the entire fun of simulating all the outcomes is finding those unexpected niche outcomes.

UND PWR ranking share of outcomes if UND defeats SCSU and Minnesota
PWR UND loses
championship		 UND wins
championship
1 0.0% 0.00%
2 0.0% 1.92%
3 0.0% 41.07%
4 0.0% 42.22%
5 2.7% 13.42%
6 15.0% 1.34%
7 25.1% 0.03%
8 25.6% 0.00%
9 21.1% 0.00%
10 9.0% 0.00%
11 1.5% 0.00%
12 0.1% 0.00%
13 0.0% 0.00%

Surprisingly, this isn’t a lock either. Again, #12 can miss in some (very unlikely) scenarios.

However, more Sioux fans who have read this far are probably eying that (still slim) chance of finishing #2 overall.

Resources

NCAA hockey tournament selection / PWR possibilities

With only 19 games to go before the NCAA men’s ice hockey tournament selection, the You are the committee calculators are up and running.

I ran through the 1,179,648 remaining possible outcomes, so you don’t have to. The table below shows the percentage outcomes in which each team ends the season with each rank.

Note that this table does not weight the likelihood of outcomes as I usually do, rather this analysis treats all outcomes as equally likely. I’ll followup later with additional analysis that includes some probabilities, games to watch, and more in-depth analysis of UND’s potential scenarios. As always, drop me any requests if there are other questions you’d like answered.

Team PWR Possibilities
Overall Win none Win all
Boston College 1 79.8%
2 19.8%
3 0.4%		 1 81.0%
2 19.0%		 1 81.7%
2 18.3%
Michigan 1 0.2%
2 66.8%
3 27.1%
4 4.6%
5 1.1%
6 0.1%		 2 51.8%
3 33.3%
4 11.1%
5 3.4%
6 0.4%		 2 75.0%
3 25.0%
Miami 1 0.3%
2 2.7%
3 20.2%
4 15.3%
5 12.8%
6 12.6%
7 11.0%
8 9.5%
9 7.2%
10 5.4%
11 2.5%
12 0.5%
13 0.1%
14 0.0%		 4 0.0%
5 1.0%
6 8.0%
7 19.4%
8 25.1%
9 21.1%
10 16.3%
11 7.4%
12 1.5%
13 0.2%
14 0.0%		 1 1.3%
2 10.7%
3 61.2%
4 24.2%
5 2.5%
6 0.2%
UMD 1 19.7%
2 5.5%
3 5.0%
4 11.6%
5 16.4%
6 17.1%
7 15.1%
8 7.6%
9 1.7%
10 0.2%
11 0.0%		 3 1.2%
4 5.9%
5 16.3%
6 28.3%
7 29.2%
8 15.1%
9 3.5%
10 0.4%
11 0.1%		 1 78.7%
2 19.8%
3 0.3%
4 1.2%
Ferris State 3 7.7%
4 21.0%
5 30.6%
6 26.5%
7 11.5%
8 2.7%
9 0.2%
10 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Boston University 2 2.9%
3 14.9%
4 12.1%
5 8.5%
6 9.9%
7 13.6%
8 15.9%
9 12.9%
10 6.7%
11 2.2%
12 0.4%
13 0.0%		 4 0.3%
5 1.9%
6 7.2%
7 18.9%
8 28.1%
9 24.9%
10 13.3%
11 4.5%
12 0.9%
13 0.1%		 2 11.6%
3 52.3%
4 29.4%
5 6.0%
6 0.7%
7 0.1%
UMN 2 0.4%
3 9.7%
4 10.8%
5 7.9%
6 8.5%
7 13.6%
8 19.8%
9 19.0%
10 8.4%
11 1.7%
12 0.1%
13 0.0%		 4 0.0%
5 0.2%
6 3.0%
7 13.0%
8 29.3%
9 34.1%
10 16.6%
11 3.5%
12 0.2%
13 0.0%		 2 1.5%
3 37.4%
4 37.2%
5 17.6%
6 5.1%
7 1.1%
8 0.1%
Maine 3 1.1%
4 6.4%
5 8.7%
6 6.7%
7 2.3%
8 2.6%
9 7.5%
10 13.4%
11 21.8%
12 20.2%
13 8.3%
14 1.1%		 10 5.7%
11 36.0%
12 39.5%
13 16.6%
14 2.2%		 3 4.5%
4 25.5%
5 34.6%
6 26.8%
7 8.3%
8 0.3%
9 0.0%
UND 2 0.2%
3 5.1%
4 5.3%
5 2.0%
6 2.1%
7 3.6%
8 6.4%
9 14.6%
10 22.9%
11 19.0%
12 14.2%
13 4.2%
14 0.3%		 7 0.0%
8 0.1%
9 7.4%
10 25.6%
11 30.2%
12 27.6%
13 8.5%
14 0.6%		 2 1.9%
3 41.1%
4 42.2%
5 13.4%
6 1.3%
7 0.0%
Mass.-Lowell 6 1.1%
7 8.8%
8 17.7%
9 19.6%
10 21.6%
11 20.6%
12 8.9%
13 1.5%
14 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Michigan State 13 11.7%
14 41.0%
15 37.1%
16 6.6%
17 3.6%
18 0.1%		 n/a n/a
Western Michigan 7 0.0%
8 0.0%
9 0.2%
10 1.1%
11 3.1%
12 7.1%
13 13.0%
14 26.6%
15 21.2%
16 19.9%
17 6.4%
18 1.1%		 13 0.9%
14 6.6%
15 14.3%
16 55.7%
17 19.2%
18 3.4%		 7 0.1%
8 0.1%
9 1.0%
10 4.6%
11 12.5%
12 27.8%
13 32.9%
14 21.1%
Denver 3 1.2%
4 2.8%
5 4.0%
6 3.2%
7 1.3%
8 0.8%
9 2.5%
10 7.3%
11 16.8%
12 29.7%
13 22.8%
14 7.6%		 10 1.3%
11 12.1%
12 37.3%
13 36.0%
14 13.4%		 3 9.5%
4 22.4%
5 31.8%
6 25.4%
7 9.8%
8 1.1%
9 0.0%
Northern Michigan 13 1.3%
14 10.2%
15 32.9%
16 51.8%
17 3.8%		 n/a n/a
Notre Dame 17 4.4%
18 64.6%
19 28.4%
20 2.6%		 n/a n/a
Union 2 1.7%
3 7.6%
4 9.9%
5 6.1%
6 5.8%
7 9.0%
8 11.9%
9 13.7%
10 11.1%
11 6.1%
12 7.8%
13 8.2%
14 1.1%
15 0.0%		 6 0.0%
7 0.5%
8 4.1%
9 12.3%
10 17.0%
11 14.9%
12 23.2%
13 24.7%
14 3.2%
15 0.1%		 2 6.7%
3 30.1%
4 38.3%
5 18.6%
6 5.0%
7 1.1%
8 0.1%
Merrimack 14 0.0%
15 0.8%
16 9.1%
17 64.1%
18 23.0%
19 3.1%
20 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Ohio State 19 19.1%
20 48.9%
21 28.7%
22 3.2%
23 0.2%		 n/a n/a
Lake Superior 19 0.4%
20 9.2%
21 36.4%
22 40.6%
23 11.6%
24 1.6%
25 0.2%
26 0.0%		 n/a n/a
SCSU 13 0.3%
14 1.5%
15 3.7%
16 3.7%
17 3.7%
18 4.6%
19 15.8%
20 13.5%
21 3.4%
22 7.1%
23 22.1%
24 14.6%
25 5.4%
26 0.6%		 20 0.0%
21 0.4%
22 14.2%
23 44.3%
24 29.3%
25 10.7%
26 1.2%		 13 2.1%
14 12.0%
15 29.5%
16 27.8%
17 25.8%
18 2.9%
Cornell 4 0.3%
5 1.9%
6 6.5%
7 10.2%
8 5.1%
9 1.0%
10 1.7%
11 6.0%
12 11.0%
13 28.6%
14 10.6%
15 4.3%
16 8.9%
17 3.8%
18 0.3%		 11 0.0%
12 0.9%
13 23.5%
14 24.1%
15 12.9%
16 26.6%
17 11.3%
18 0.9%		 4 1.2%
5 7.5%
6 26.0%
7 40.7%
8 20.2%
9 3.9%
10 0.4%
11 0.0%
CC 19 0.6%
20 5.4%
21 17.0%
22 34.9%
23 31.1%
24 10.3%
25 0.7%		 n/a n/a
Northeastern 24 0.0%
25 0.1%
26 3.6%
27 23.8%
28 51.4%
29 19.2%
30 1.8%		 n/a n/a
UW 22 0.3%
23 3.8%
24 26.2%
25 42.7%
26 24.3%
27 2.7%
28 0.1%		 n/a n/a
Bemidji State 28 9.3%
29 40.3%
30 37.5%
31 11.1%
32 1.7%
33 0.1%		 n/a n/a
New Hampshire 30 0.3%
31 18.8%
32 19.4%
33 5.6%
34 0.3%
Non-TUC 55.5%		 n/a n/a
Massachusetts Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Providence 28 0.5%
29 2.9%
30 6.1%
31 9.4%
32 5.0%
33 1.1%
Non-TUC 75.0%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 28 1.9%
29 11.6%
30 24.5%
31 37.5%
32 19.9%
33 4.6%
MTech 22 0.0%
23 0.3%
24 1.7%
25 4.3%
26 5.1%
27 1.2%
28 0.0%
29 1.0%
30 4.2%
31 6.1%
32 1.2%
33 0.0%
Non-TUC 75.0%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 22 0.0%
23 2.2%
24 13.6%
25 34.1%
26 40.7%
27 9.3%
Harvard 15 0.0%
16 0.1%
17 10.2%
18 3.0%
19 16.5%
20 13.9%
21 11.7%
22 4.9%
23 7.4%
24 7.0%
25 8.6%
26 7.5%
27 8.0%
28 1.1%		 20 0.0%
21 0.0%
22 0.8%
23 9.4%
24 18.4%
25 21.6%
26 22.5%
27 24.0%
28 3.2%		 15 0.1%
16 0.6%
17 40.6%
18 12.0%
19 41.6%
20 5.1%
Alaska Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Colgate 17 0.2%
18 3.3%
19 16.0%
20 5.5%
21 0.1%
22 1.3%
23 10.1%
24 23.5%
25 23.3%
26 13.3%
27 2.7%
28 0.8%		 24 8.3%
25 41.9%
26 39.4%
27 8.1%
28 2.3%		 17 0.6%
18 13.2%
19 64.1%
20 22.1%
Bowling Green Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Nebraska-Omaha Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Quinnipiac 25 5.7%
26 35.8%
27 45.6%
28 10.8%
29 2.1%		 n/a n/a
Yale Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
St. Lawrence Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Niagara 22 1.2%
23 3.7%
24 6.1%
25 2.9%
26 2.6%
27 6.0%
28 13.6%
29 14.6%
30 18.5%
31 19.5%
32 9.8%
33 1.5%
34 0.1%		 28 3.2%
29 11.1%
30 27.4%
31 35.7%
32 19.6%
33 3.0%
34 0.1%		 22 4.9%
23 14.6%
24 24.2%
25 11.4%
26 10.0%
27 16.2%
28 10.7%
29 7.0%
30 0.4%
31 0.5%
Mankato Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Air Force 19 0.0%
20 0.7%
21 2.5%
22 5.7%
23 8.8%
24 6.1%
25 1.1%
26 1.4%
27 2.0%
28 11.4%
29 19.9%
30 26.0%
31 11.5%
32 2.6%
33 0.2%		 26 0.0%
27 0.1%
28 1.2%
29 20.7%
30 49.5%
31 23.1%
32 5.2%
33 0.3%		 19 0.1%
20 2.9%
21 10.0%
22 22.7%
23 35.2%
24 24.6%
25 4.5%
Clarkson Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Dartmouth Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
RIT 20 0.2%
21 0.2%
22 0.9%
23 1.0%
24 2.9%
25 5.1%
26 5.8%
27 8.0%
28 1.0%
29 0.1%
30 5.6%
31 10.2%
32 7.0%
33 2.0%
34 0.1%
Non-TUC 50.0%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 20 0.7%
21 0.9%
22 3.4%
23 3.9%
24 11.5%
25 20.3%
26 23.2%
27 32.0%
28 4.0%
AA Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Princeton Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Rensselaer Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Holy Cross Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Vermont Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Brown Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Robert Morris Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Bentley Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Connecticut Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Alabama-Huntsville Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
American Int’l Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Army Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Sacred Heart Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a

This is the last time I’ll post the complete table, from now on I’ll just focus on those teams that can still finish in the top 16.

Resources

WCHA Playoff Preview: UND vs. Bemidji State

November 20, 2011. Bemidji State 1, North Dakota 0.

The last time these two teams met, the Beavers held on for their first victory over UND since 1970 (and second overall). Dan Bakala made 26 saves for BSU and North Dakota fell to 2-6-0 in conference play with the loss.

But Bemidji State hasn’t only been getting it done with great goaltending and tight, low-scoring games. Since November 20th, the Beavers have scored 4 or more goals seven times and compiled a record of 13-8-2. On the flip side, however, Tom Serratore’s squad has given up 4 or more goals eight times.

I’m not certain that BSU would like to play racehorse hockey with North Dakota. Since that November night, the Green and White have notched 4 or more goals twelve times and allowed that number only five times while boasting a record of 16-5-2.

Dave Hakstol’s squad continues to run short, with only eleven “forwards” each night. I use quotation marks because Dan Senkbeil and Joe Gleason are playing up front after beginning the season as defensemen.

Last season (Bemidji’s first in the WCHA), the Beavers advanced to the Final Five, securing a road sweep of Nebraska-Omaha in the first round and dispatching Minnesota-Duluth in the quarterfinals before falling to Denver 6-2 in the semifinals.

North Dakota has hosted the first round of the WCHA playoffs for ten consecutive seasons, a league record. UND is seeking its tenth straight berth in the Final Five, which would also extend the longest active streak in the conference. Minnesota made 11 consecutive Final Five appearances between 1999-2009 and ten consecutive appearances from 1988-1997.

This series marks the first time North Dakota and Bemidji State have ever met in the playoffs. Bemidji will need to win the WCHA Final Five to advance to the NCAA tournament this season, while UND would be squarely on the tournament bubble with a series loss. Any result in which UND advances to St. Paul for the WCHA Final Five would land the Fighting Sioux in fairly safe territory for the NCAA’s.

Bemidji State Team Profile

Head Coach: Tom Serratore (11th season at BSU, 195-162-41 .541)
Pairwise Ranking: t-27th
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 17-16-3 overal, 11-14-3 WCHA (9th)
Last Season: 15-18-5 overall, 8-15-5 WCHA (t-9th)

Team Offense: 2.69 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.81 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.2% (24 of 13)
Penalty Kill: 84.4% (119 of 141)

Key Players: Junior F Jordan George (18-12-30), Senior F Shea Walters (12-13-25), Senior F Ben Kinne (10-11-21), Senior D Brad Hunt (5-19-24), Freshman D Matt Prapavessis (1-12-13), Senior G Dan Bakala (11-11-2, 2.57 GAA, .914 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 205-105-30, .647)
Pairwise Ranking: t-12th
National Rankings: #12/#12
This Season: 20-12-3 overall, 16-11-1 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.09 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.69 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.0% (34 of 162)
Penalty Kill: 81.5% (119 of 146)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (17-23-40) Junior F Corban Knight (12-22-34), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (23-16-39), Freshman D Nick Mattson (6-12-18), Senior D Ben Blood (2-15-17), Senior G Brad Eidsness (7-3-1, 2.09 GAA, .923 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: November 20, 2011 (Bemidji, MN). A scoreless game turned in the third period when North Dakota’s Andrew MacWilliam and Mark MacMillan were penalized on the same play. 72 seconds into the ensuing 5 on 3 advantage, BSU’s Jordan George banged home a loose rebound and the Beavers held on for the 1-0 victory. It was Bemidji State’s first victory over UND in over 40 years.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: February 27, 2011. Four of the six seniors in the lineup scored a goal as the homestanding Sioux wrapped up a four game season sweep of the Beavers. UND won the Sunday afternoon contest 5-1 after downing BSU 5-2 on Saturday afternoon.

Most Important Meeting: October 15, 2010 (Bemidji, MN). In the first game played at the BREC, North Dakota spotted BSU the opening goal less than two minutes into the contest and then steamrolled the Beavers 5-2. The Fighting Sioux outshot their fellow Green-and-Whiters 38-14.

Last Ten: North Dakota has won nine of the last ten meetings between the teams, outscoring BSU 39-17 during that stretch. One of those UND victories was a 4-3 overtime decision in Grand Forks, while Bemidji State’s lone bright spot was a 1-0 home win earlier this season.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 22-2-1 (.900), including a 14-1-1 (.906) record in games played in Grand Forks. The two teams have never met in the postseason.

Game News and Notes:

Under head coach Dave Hakstol, North Dakota is 14-3 in the first round of the WCHA playoffs and have yet to lose an opening round series. BSU head coach Tom Serratore will coach in his 400th career game on Saturday night and is five wins short of 200 for his career. Sioux sophomore forward Brock Nelson won the league scoring title with 20 goals in conference action.

The Prediction

It’s always difficult to end a team’s season, and that’s the task North Dakota is faced with this weekend. I have a feeling that the Beavers will attempt to play an up-tempo style in Friday’s opener and lock things down in Saturday’s rematch. This series may go to Sunday, but I’ve got UND in two, with Saturday’s series finale going to overtime. UND 5-2, 3-2 (OT).

Sioux have an opportunity to make PWR gains and position themselves for NCAA tournament berth

The Sioux have an opportunity to make a move in the PairWise Rankings (PWR) and toward an NCAA tournament selection.

Last weekend, a sweep was necessary just to maintain UND’s ranking of #14. The Sioux did sweep and rose modestly to #13.

This weekend, a sweep could easily push UND up a couple more spots into the relative safety of a #10-#12 ranking.

Any outcome in which UND fails to advance, whether winning a single game or none, would leave UND on the bubble for the NCAA tournament. The #14 ranked team stands a fair chance of making the tournament — it does so if 2 or fewer teams outside the top 16 gets autobids. However, UND’s ranking would be quite likely to move a slot or two while the Sioux watched the Final Five from home, leaving UND’s destiny out of its hands.

Likelihood of UND having a particular PWR ranking (or higher) on March 12, based on UND’s performance
0-2-0 1-2-0 2-1-0 2-0-0
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
6 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.96%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 5.21%
9 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% 18.12%
10 0.00% 0.00% 10.88% 42.71%
11 0.00% 0.23% 39.66% 75.41%
12 0.86% 3.74% 80.26% 95.90%
13 7.46% 20.22% 96.92% 99.99%
14 31.13% 54.48% 99.99% 100.00%
15 64.52% 83.66% 100.00% 100.00%
16 89.11% 97.21% 100.00% 100.00%
17 98.74% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
18 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
19 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
20 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

It doesn’t show up in the table (not enough decimal places), but there is about a 1/1,000,000 scenario in which UND comes out of the weekend #4 in the PWR and positioned for a 1 seed. The lowest likely rank, if swept, is #19.

Who else to watch this weekend

The two separate lists are the series UND cares most about if the Sioux win (outcomes that can flip other comparisons in UND’s favor) and the series that UND cares most about if the Sioux lose (outcomes that can flip comparisons away from UND).

If UND wins:

  • Wisconsin over Denver (win series)
  • Rensselaer over Union (one game if UND sweeps, series if UND goes 2-1)
  • Alaska Anchorage over Minnesota (win series)
  • Merrimack over Maine (win series if UND sweeps, not as important if UND goes 2-1)

If UND loses:

  • Maine over Merrimack (win series)
  • Michigan over Notre Dame (win series)
  • Lake Superior over Wester Michigan (one game)
  • Dartmouth over Cornell (win series)

The series listed are those that increase UND’s PWR by at least .75 on average.

Outlook for all NCAA teams

I didn’t run charts (like the UND chart above) for any teams other than UND yet, but the data is all in the table below. If you’d like to see any particular team in chart form, just let me know.

Here are the likely PWR rankings for each NCAA team as of March 12 (after all of this weekend’s best-of-3 series complete).

Team March 12 PWR Possibilities
Overall Swept Advance (2-1-0 or 2-0-0)
Boston College 1 85.1%
2 12.7%
3 1.4%
4 0.6%
5 0.2%
6 0.0%
7 0.0%		 1 27.6%
2 34.0%
3 23.6%
4 11.8%
5 2.9%
6 0.1%
7 0.0%		 1 89.4%
2 10.6%
Michigan 1 2.2%
2 34.2%
3 15.4%
4 12.9%
5 13.9%
6 9.6%
7 5.4%
8 3.8%
9 1.8%
10 0.6%
11 0.1%
12 0.0%		 2 0.0%
3 0.6%
4 2.8%
5 11.3%
6 20.7%
7 26.4%
8 22.6%
9 11.1%
10 3.5%
11 0.8%
12 0.1%		 1 3.5%
2 53.5%
3 22.4%
4 14.3%
5 6.1%
6 0.3%
7 0.0%
Ferris State 1 0.0%
2 13.0%
3 26.0%
4 27.3%
5 18.4%
6 6.9%
7 3.2%
8 2.8%
9 1.7%
10 0.6%
11 0.1%
12 0.0%		 2 0.0%
3 0.2%
4 1.5%
5 6.0%
6 12.8%
7 21.4%
8 27.3%
9 20.6%
10 8.2%
11 1.7%
12 0.2%		 1 0.1%
2 14.6%
3 29.3%
4 30.4%
5 19.5%
6 5.7%
7 0.5%
8 0.0%
Mass.-Lowell 1 0.9%
2 18.4%
3 27.7%
4 16.0%
5 10.2%
6 9.2%
7 6.7%
8 3.4%
9 2.5%
10 2.6%
11 1.8%
12 0.5%
13 0.0%		 2 0.0%
3 0.4%
4 1.4%
5 5.0%
6 12.1%
7 16.8%
8 15.4%
9 14.2%
10 16.9%
11 12.5%
12 4.7%
13 0.5%		 1 1.1%
2 22.0%
3 33.0%
4 18.6%
5 10.8%
6 8.4%
7 4.9%
8 1.2%
9 0.1%
10 0.0%
11 0.0%
Boston University 1 0.0%
2 0.4%
3 3.2%
4 13.5%
5 23.7%
6 22.6%
7 11.5%
8 6.6%
9 5.6%
10 6.6%
11 5.0%
12 1.2%
13 0.2%		 5 0.0%
6 0.2%
7 1.5%
8 5.6%
9 16.3%
10 31.9%
11 31.0%
12 11.6%
13 1.9%		 1 0.0%
2 0.5%
3 4.1%
4 17.2%
5 30.2%
6 28.5%
7 13.1%
8 5.0%
9 1.2%
10 0.1%
11 0.0%
Miami 1 0.1%
2 0.8%
3 3.0%
4 6.0%
5 7.8%
6 8.2%
7 7.5%
8 9.5%
9 9.7%
10 7.0%
11 14.1%
12 17.1%
13 8.9%
14 0.2%
15 0.0%		 7 0.0%
8 0.0%
9 0.2%
10 4.6%
11 22.7%
12 41.5%
13 29.9%
14 0.9%
15 0.0%		 1 0.2%
2 1.5%
3 5.9%
4 11.9%
5 15.3%
6 16.2%
7 14.5%
8 17.0%
9 13.7%
10 3.2%
11 0.6%
12 0.0%
UMD 1 11.6%
2 20.4%
3 22.4%
4 19.8%
5 12.3%
6 7.3%
7 3.7%
8 1.7%
9 0.6%
10 0.2%
11 0.1%
12 0.0%
13 0.0%		 2 0.1%
3 1.7%
4 7.3%
5 16.4%
6 25.3%
7 22.7%
8 14.6%
9 7.5%
10 3.0%
11 1.0%
12 0.2%
13 0.0%		 1 12.7%
2 22.4%
3 24.4%
4 20.7%
5 11.5%
6 5.5%
7 2.1%
8 0.6%
9 0.1%
10 0.0%
11 0.0%
Michigan State 3 0.0%
4 0.0%
5 0.0%
6 0.5%
7 2.1%
8 6.8%
9 13.4%
10 15.4%
11 9.9%
12 9.5%
13 17.9%
14 14.3%
15 7.7%
16 2.1%
17 0.4%
18 0.0%
19 0.0%		 10 0.0%
11 0.1%
12 8.2%
13 28.8%
14 32.8%
15 21.3%
16 7.1%
17 1.4%
18 0.2%
19 0.0%		 3 0.0%
4 0.0%
5 0.1%
6 1.0%
7 4.4%
8 13.8%
9 27.2%
10 31.2%
11 17.9%
12 3.5%
13 0.8%
14 0.1%
UMN 2 0.0%
3 0.3%
4 2.1%
5 7.5%
6 19.3%
7 25.8%
8 15.3%
9 10.1%
10 8.3%
11 6.0%
12 3.7%
13 1.6%
14 0.1%
15 0.0%		 7 0.0%
8 0.1%
9 1.0%
10 7.0%
11 20.6%
12 37.8%
13 30.8%
14 2.7%
15 0.1%		 2 0.0%
3 0.4%
4 2.3%
5 8.1%
6 21.0%
7 28.0%
8 16.6%
9 10.7%
10 7.8%
11 4.1%
12 1.1%
13 0.0%
Maine 2 0.0%
3 0.0%
4 0.1%
5 0.5%
6 2.1%
7 5.5%
8 11.7%
9 16.1%
10 14.4%
11 11.6%
12 10.3%
13 8.7%
14 9.2%
15 5.7%
16 3.0%
17 0.9%
18 0.2%
19 0.0%
20 0.0%
21 0.0%		 11 0.2%
12 3.7%
13 15.8%
14 32.6%
15 27.6%
16 14.6%
17 4.5%
18 1.0%
19 0.1%
20 0.0%
21 0.0%		 2 0.0%
3 0.0%
4 0.1%
5 0.9%
6 3.6%
7 9.6%
8 20.4%
9 28.0%
10 23.1%
11 10.6%
12 3.2%
13 0.5%
Denver 1 0.0%
2 0.0%
3 0.1%
4 0.5%
5 1.3%
6 3.2%
7 6.5%
8 11.9%
9 17.6%
10 19.3%
11 16.3%
12 11.9%
13 7.1%
14 2.4%
15 1.3%
16 0.5%
17 0.1%		 9 0.0%
10 1.7%
11 12.3%
12 27.8%
13 28.7%
14 16.0%
15 9.3%
16 3.7%
17 0.5%		 1 0.0%
2 0.0%
3 0.1%
4 0.7%
5 1.9%
6 4.6%
7 9.5%
8 17.2%
9 25.2%
10 25.2%
11 13.5%
12 2.1%
UND 10 0.0%
11 0.2%
12 3.5%
13 16.5%
14 34.3%
15 29.1%
16 13.6%
17 2.8%		 n/a n/a
Notre Dame 8 0.0%
9 0.0%
10 0.1%
11 1.2%
12 4.9%
13 8.7%
14 9.6%
15 7.9%
16 6.3%
17 10.2%
18 20.9%
19 25.7%
20 4.4%
21 0.1%		 15 0.0%
16 0.2%
17 5.2%
18 25.1%
19 56.5%
20 12.6%
21 0.4%		 8 0.0%
9 0.0%
10 0.4%
11 3.2%
12 13.4%
13 23.9%
14 26.4%
15 21.0%
16 10.6%
17 1.0%
Western Michigan 11 0.1%
12 0.7%
13 5.1%
14 12.6%
15 16.1%
16 14.6%
17 8.7%
18 5.0%
19 14.3%
20 20.7%
21 2.2%
22 0.0%		 17 0.0%
18 4.3%
19 28.1%
20 59.2%
21 8.3%
22 0.1%		 11 0.1%
12 1.2%
13 9.0%
14 22.0%
15 28.3%
16 25.3%
17 13.3%
18 0.7%
19 0.0%
Northern Michigan 13 0.3%
14 4.4%
15 20.8%
16 31.5%
17 25.8%
18 13.8%
19 3.4%
20 0.1%
21 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Merrimack 6 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.1%
9 1.0%
10 4.2%
11 9.9%
12 11.8%
13 10.3%
14 5.0%
15 3.0%
16 7.4%
17 14.8%
18 16.3%
19 11.6%
20 3.8%
21 0.8%
22 0.1%
23 0.0%		 14 0.0%
15 0.2%
16 2.2%
17 12.4%
18 34.1%
19 35.6%
20 12.4%
21 2.8%
22 0.3%
23 0.0%		 6 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.3%
9 2.3%
10 9.8%
11 23.2%
12 27.7%
13 24.0%
14 10.9%
15 1.9%
16 0.0%
Union 2 0.0%
3 0.3%
4 1.3%
5 4.3%
6 11.0%
7 21.7%
8 24.7%
9 14.9%
10 10.1%
11 6.6%
12 3.7%
13 1.1%
14 0.1%
15 0.0%		 7 0.0%
8 0.6%
9 4.4%
10 13.5%
11 28.6%
12 32.8%
13 16.7%
14 3.1%
15 0.4%		 2 0.0%
3 0.3%
4 1.5%
5 4.8%
6 12.2%
7 24.1%
8 27.2%
9 15.8%
10 9.2%
11 3.9%
12 0.8%
13 0.0%
14 0.0%
Lake Superior 14 0.0%
15 0.5%
16 4.1%
17 12.2%
18 15.7%
19 12.4%
20 11.1%
21 11.6%
22 14.4%
23 11.7%
24 5.0%
25 1.2%
26 0.1%		 18 0.0%
19 0.1%
20 1.8%
21 10.4%
22 34.1%
23 34.1%
24 15.3%
25 3.8%
26 0.4%		 14 0.0%
15 1.1%
16 9.6%
17 28.3%
18 36.0%
19 20.4%
20 3.8%
21 0.8%
22 0.1%
23 0.0%
Ohio State 18 0.3%
19 6.6%
20 24.0%
21 33.4%
22 24.4%
23 9.9%
24 1.5%
25 0.1%		 n/a n/a
CC 13 0.0%
14 0.3%
15 3.5%
16 11.7%
17 18.6%
18 21.8%
19 17.4%
20 6.9%
21 10.2%
22 6.6%
23 2.3%
24 0.7%
25 0.1%		 18 0.7%
19 4.3%
20 17.2%
21 33.5%
22 27.4%
23 11.9%
24 4.3%
25 0.7%		 13 0.0%
14 0.4%
15 5.0%
16 16.7%
17 26.6%
18 30.4%
19 20.2%
20 0.7%
21 0.0%
Cornell 4 0.0%
5 0.0%
6 0.1%
7 0.4%
8 1.8%
9 5.0%
10 10.5%
11 17.2%
12 21.1%
13 13.7%
14 7.4%
15 4.5%
16 5.3%
17 5.6%
18 5.0%
19 2.3%
20 0.1%		 13 0.0%
14 0.5%
15 4.9%
16 16.0%
17 27.6%
18 31.7%
19 18.4%
20 0.8%		 4 0.0%
5 0.0%
6 0.1%
7 0.5%
8 2.3%
9 6.4%
10 13.6%
11 22.1%
12 27.2%
13 17.2%
14 8.3%
15 1.9%
16 0.3%
17 0.0%
Northeastern 23 0.0%
24 0.1%
25 1.7%
26 9.1%
27 22.4%
28 29.7%
29 23.3%
30 10.5%
31 2.7%
32 0.5%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%		 n/a n/a
SCSU 19 0.0%
20 0.2%
21 2.2%
22 9.5%
23 14.8%
24 14.4%
25 12.6%
26 7.3%
27 5.3%
28 6.6%
29 5.8%
30 5.3%
31 6.1%
32 4.7%
33 1.5%
34 0.1%
Non-TUC 3.6%		 27 0.0%
28 0.2%
29 2.5%
30 13.1%
31 30.4%
32 25.6%
33 8.1%
34 0.6%
Non-TUC 19.6%		 19 0.0%
20 0.4%
21 3.6%
22 15.7%
23 24.5%
24 23.8%
25 20.6%
26 9.7%
27 1.7%
28 0.0%
Bemidji State 20 0.0%
21 0.4%
22 4.1%
23 23.2%
24 35.9%
25 26.2%
26 9.9%
27 0.3%
28 0.0%		 n/a n/a
UW 17 0.0%
18 0.3%
19 2.8%
20 9.0%
21 8.7%
22 7.0%
23 5.6%
24 4.5%
25 8.3%
26 14.1%
27 13.1%
28 11.1%
29 9.1%
30 4.8%
31 1.3%
32 0.2%
33 0.0%
34 0.0%		 22 0.1%
23 0.6%
24 1.2%
25 2.6%
26 11.0%
27 20.0%
28 25.8%
29 22.8%
30 12.2%
31 3.2%
32 0.4%
33 0.0%
34 0.0%		 17 0.0%
18 1.0%
19 8.9%
20 29.1%
21 27.1%
22 19.1%
23 10.8%
24 3.5%
25 0.4%
26 0.0%
Massachusetts 20 0.0%
21 0.0%
22 0.2%
23 0.6%
24 1.1%
25 2.7%
26 4.4%
27 3.4%
28 2.5%
29 4.9%
30 9.8%
31 7.9%
32 2.7%
33 0.7%
34 0.1%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 59.1%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 20 0.0%
21 0.2%
22 1.4%
23 4.1%
24 8.1%
25 19.8%
26 32.3%
27 23.3%
28 8.7%
29 1.8%
30 0.3%
31 0.0%
32 0.0%
New Hampshire 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.8%
26 3.6%
27 6.1%
28 5.4%
29 3.6%
30 2.7%
31 3.1%
32 3.0%
33 0.7%
34 0.0%
Non-TUC 70.8%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 23 0.0%
24 0.2%
25 3.7%
26 16.6%
27 28.0%
28 24.9%
29 15.5%
30 7.7%
31 2.6%
32 0.6%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%
Nebraska-Omaha 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.2%
26 0.9%
27 2.7%
28 4.7%
29 7.8%
30 7.2%
31 7.1%
32 5.8%
33 2.5%
34 0.5%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 60.6%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.4%
26 2.4%
27 6.7%
28 11.9%
29 19.7%
30 18.2%
31 17.9%
32 14.7%
33 6.2%
34 1.2%
35 0.1%
Non-TUC 0.5%
Harvard 17 0.0%
18 0.2%
19 2.0%
20 10.2%
21 10.3%
22 10.9%
23 11.4%
24 12.6%
25 9.8%
26 7.6%
27 6.0%
28 2.7%
29 2.6%
30 5.6%
31 5.8%
32 2.2%
33 0.2%
34 0.0%		 26 0.0%
27 0.1%
28 2.0%
29 13.7%
30 34.3%
31 35.7%
32 13.3%
33 0.9%
34 0.0%		 17 0.0%
18 0.2%
19 3.1%
20 15.9%
21 16.1%
22 17.0%
23 17.7%
24 18.5%
25 10.0%
26 1.5%
27 0.0%
Alaska Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Providence Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
MTech Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Quinnipiac 16 0.0%
17 0.1%
18 0.5%
19 1.2%
20 4.0%
21 6.5%
22 10.2%
23 11.4%
24 10.6%
25 9.3%
26 9.7%
27 10.6%
28 9.6%
29 8.9%
30 5.2%
31 1.7%
32 0.5%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%		 24 0.1%
25 1.1%
26 3.8%
27 9.9%
28 21.9%
29 32.9%
30 20.8%
31 6.9%
32 2.0%
33 0.4%
34 0.0%		 16 0.0%
17 0.1%
18 1.0%
19 2.5%
20 8.0%
21 12.9%
22 20.3%
23 22.6%
24 20.1%
25 11.0%
26 1.5%
27 0.0%
Colgate 18 0.0%
19 0.3%
20 5.6%
21 13.5%
22 12.6%
23 8.7%
24 6.6%
25 4.6%
26 4.2%
27 6.1%
28 7.8%
29 7.1%
30 9.1%
31 8.8%
32 3.5%
33 0.8%
34 0.1%
Non-TUC 0.7%		 25 0.0%
26 0.1%
27 0.7%
28 3.4%
29 13.0%
30 29.1%
31 33.6%
32 13.8%
33 3.1%
34 0.2%
Non-TUC 2.9%		 18 0.0%
19 0.6%
20 11.2%
21 27.1%
22 25.2%
23 17.1%
24 12.0%
25 6.0%
26 0.6%
27 0.2%
28 0.0%
Bowling Green Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Yale 23 0.0%
24 0.2%
25 1.4%
26 3.4%
27 4.6%
28 3.9%
29 4.0%
30 5.5%
31 6.4%
32 4.1%
33 1.6%
34 0.5%
35 0.1%
Non-TUC 64.3%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 23 0.1%
24 0.7%
25 3.8%
26 9.5%
27 12.9%
28 11.0%
29 11.2%
30 15.5%
31 17.9%
32 11.4%
33 4.5%
34 1.3%
35 0.1%
Dartmouth Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
St. Lawrence Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Mankato Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Clarkson Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Air Force 22 0.0%
23 0.4%
24 6.9%
25 20.9%
26 23.8%
27 14.3%
28 6.1%
29 2.5%
30 0.7%
31 0.5%
32 0.7%
33 0.5%
34 0.2%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 22.5%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 22 0.0%
23 0.5%
24 9.1%
25 27.7%
26 31.6%
27 19.0%
28 8.0%
29 3.3%
30 0.7%
31 0.0%
RIT 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.2%
26 1.4%
27 3.8%
28 6.0%
29 11.1%
30 16.2%
31 13.8%
32 11.4%
33 6.0%
34 1.6%
35 0.2%
Non-TUC 28.6%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.2%
26 1.9%
27 5.2%
28 8.4%
29 15.5%
30 22.6%
31 19.3%
32 15.9%
33 8.3%
34 2.3%
35 0.3%
Non-TUC 0.0%
Niagara 24 0.0%
25 0.1%
26 0.4%
27 1.4%
28 3.9%
29 8.8%
30 13.0%
31 15.2%
32 11.6%
33 5.9%
34 1.4%
35 0.1%
Non-TUC 38.3%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 24 0.0%
25 0.1%
26 0.7%
27 2.3%
28 6.3%
29 14.2%
30 21.0%
31 24.6%
32 18.7%
33 9.5%
34 2.3%
35 0.2%
Non-TUC 0.0%
AA Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Princeton Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Rensselaer Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Holy Cross Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Robert Morris Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Vermont Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Brown Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Bentley Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Connecticut Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Alabama-Huntsville Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
American Int’l Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Army Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Sacred Heart Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a

This is probably the last time this season I’ll publish the entire NCAA. Next week I’ll pare it down to those within sight of making the NCAA tournament.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations.

Resources

Weekend Preview: North Dakota vs. MSU-Mankato

On the surface, it looks like Troy Jutting’s Mavericks are playing better in the second half after a dismal 3-12-1 start to the season. Mankato has picked up points in six consecutive weekends of WCHA play, going 6-5-1 in those twelve games.

But there’s another way to look at the “tale of two seasons” for MSU-M. The Mavs have fared well against the other teams in the bottom six (St. Cloud State, Wisconsin, Bemidji State, Michigan Tech, and Alaska Anchorage), forging a record of 7-6-1. Mankato hasn’t yet played North Dakota, but has struggled against the others in the top six (Minnesota, Minnesota-Duluth, Denver, Colorado College, and Nebraska-Omaha), winning just once in 12 games (1-10-1).

Minnesota State-Mankato has been led by their freshman class. The seven first-year skaters have scored 31 goals and added 51 assists for 82 points in 164 games played, an average of .5 points per game for the entire class.

By contrast, North Dakota’s nine rookie skaters have netted 27 goals and chipped in 38 helpers for 65 total points in 229 games played for an average of .28 points per game.

UND’s second half resurgence has been helped by junior forward Carter Rowney, who has netted 16 goals this season, eight during the month of February alone.

North Dakota will be unable to field a full complement of players for this weekend’s action, as sophomore forward Taylor Dickin (lower body injury) joins a long list of injured Sioux players. North Dakota will dress nine forwards and eight defensemen for the two game series, with blueliners Joe Gleason and Dan Senkbeil playing up front. Despite the injuries, UND is 14-5-2 (.714) in their last 21 games.

Dave Hakstol’s team has secured home ice for the first round of the WCHA playoffs and sits squarely on the bubble for the NCAA tournament. Anything less than a sweep this weekend would be devastating for North Dakota’s postseason chances.

MSU-Mankato Team Profile

Head Coach: Troy Jutting (12th season at MSUM, 184-220-55, .461)
Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR
This Season: 12-20-2 overall, 8-16-2 WCHA (11th)
Last Season: 14-18-6, 8-16-4 WCHA (11th)

Team Offense: 2.79 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.38 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.4% (33 of 162)
Penalty Kill: 79.3% (130 of 164)

Key Players: Freshman F Jean-Paul Lafontaine (13-15-28), Freshman F Matt Leitner (9-18-27), Senior F Michael Dorr (8-10-18), Freshman D Zach Palmquist (6-12-18), Junior D Evan Mosey (2-8-10), Senior G Austin Lee (5-13-1, 3.20 GAA, .905 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 205-105-30, .647)
Pairwise Ranking: 14th
National Rankings: #14/#15
This Season: 18-12-3 overall, 14-11-1 WCHA (4th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.06 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.79 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.7% (33 of 152)
Penalty Kill: 80.7% (113 of 140)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (15-21-36) Junior F Corban Knight (12-20-32), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (22-16-38), Freshman D Nick Mattson (5-11-16), Senior D Ben Blood (2-14-16), Senior G Brad Eidsness (6-3-1, 2.30 GAA, .914 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 12, 2010 (Mankato, MN). In a rare Sunday afternoon contest, UND again rallied from an early deficit to secure the road victory, 4-2. Down one goal late in the game, the Mavericks couldn’t capitalize on nearly two minutes of 5 on 3 play, and North Dakota forward Evan Trupp iced the contest with an empty-netter in the final minute. On Friday night, the Green and White scored three 3rd period goals in under three minutes to come back and win 4-3.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: January 9, 1010. North Dakota got two goals from Jason Gregoire for the second consecutive game and completed the sweep of the visiting Mavs, 3-2. The Fighting Sioux won Friday’s opener, 4-1. The game also marked junior forward Matt Frattin’s return to the lineup after serving a first-half suspension.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 35-10-7 (.740), including a 21-6-3 (.750) record in games played in Grand Forks.

Last ten: North Dakota has a sparkling 9-1-0 (.900) record in the last ten contests, and has lost just once in the last 18 meetings (16-1-1).

Game News and Notes

UND head coach Dave Hakstol is 20-3-2 (.840) against the Mavericks in his career. MSU-Mankato is just 1-11-1 when trailing after the opening period of play. North Dakota is 12-4-3 at home this season, but three of those four losses were by four goals (Boston College, Minnesota, St. Cloud State).

The Prediction

North Dakota is just 8-5-1 against the bottom six teams in the league, but they’ll add two wins to that total this weekend. UND will struggle in Saturday’s rematch, but special teams will be key. UND 5-2, 3-2.

Sioux hosting Minnesota State in a nearly must-win situation

UND continues to keep things interesting by doing just what it needs to do to keep its playoff hopes alive, but no more. A split last weekend left UND at #14 in the PairWise Rankings (PWR) and a good shot at making the NCAA tournament. The Sioux need a sweep this weekend to hold steady or rise slightly, anything less is likely to lead to a fall.

The PWR has played out pretty much as expected this Spring. If you look back at A first look at the PairWise Rankings and UND’s tournament possibilities from January 3, I forecast that the Sioux would need to win 11 of 15 to be confidently above #13 at the end of the regular season. Since then, the Sioux are 8-4-1 with 2 games remaining in the regular season, and this week’s forecast confirms that 2 more wins are needed to stand a good shot of finishing ranked #13 or above.

Probability of UND ending the regular season with a particular PWR rank or higher based on UND’s performance
Win 0 Win 1 Win 2
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
6 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.33%
11 0.00% 0.00% 6.92%
12 0.00% 0.14% 24.24%
13 0.00% 2.49% 63.34%
14 0.10% 18.08% 94.57%
15 2.03% 54.65% 98.93%
16 14.01% 88.64% 100.00%
17 45.51% 100.00% 100.00%
18 99.97% 100.00% 100.00%
19 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
20 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

The good news is that even with a split this weekend UND fans won’t have to abandon all hope. A split would leave UND with a better than 50% chance of being #15 or above and an 89% chance of being #16 or above. A good conference tournament could certainly push UND into NCAA tournament position from there.

Who to cheer for this weekend

Other than UND’s own matchup, these are the games that most improve UND’s outcomes.

If UND sweeps:

  • New Hampshire over Maine
  • Nebraska-Omaha over Denver (sweep)
  • Bowling Green over N. Michigan (at least one)

If UND splits:

  • Notre Dame over Ohio St (at least one)
  • Massachusetts over Merrimack (sweep)
  • Bowling Green over N. Michigan (sweep)

If UND is swept:

  • Massachusetts over Merrimack (sweep)

I may relabel these in future posts, because they’re clearly split into offensive (comparisons UND is losing but can flip) and defensive (comparisons UND is winning but could lose). The offensive moves are those that help us most if we win — the Sioux could take the comparisons with Maine, Denver, and Northern Michigan if we win and they lose. The defensive moves are those that help us most if we lose — the Sioux want to hold onto the comparisons with Ohio St. and Merrimack by them losing.

A look around the WCHA

Minnesota, while not quite locked up, is sure in control of it’s own destiny.

Denver’s split also resulted in a chart that looks a lot like last week’s, but with the win 0 and win 4 chopped off, due to the split.

And unfortunately for CC, getting swept leaves their chart looking a lot like last week’s, but with the win 3 and win 4 chopped off. The Tigers hopes aren’t dead yet, but they’re fading fast.

A look around the NCAA

Finally, this one is big, here are the likelihoods of each each NCAA team having each PWR ranking after this weekend.

Team Mar. 5 PWR Possibilities
Overall Win none Win all
Boston College 1 24.4%
2 60.1%
3 8.9%
4 4.8%
5 1.7%
6 0.1%
7 0.0%
8 0.0%		 1 0.5%
2 1.7%
3 15.4%
4 44.6%
5 34.8%
6 2.8%
7 0.2%
8 0.1%		 1 25.5%
2 65.1%
3 7.4%
4 1.8%
5 0.2%
6 0.0%
Michigan 1 4.3%
2 22.2%
3 70.1%
4 3.3%
5 0.2%
6 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Ferris State 1 0.2%
2 2.2%
3 10.8%
4 51.8%
5 30.4%
6 4.6%
7 0.0%		 n/a n/a
UMD 1 71.0%
2 14.0%
3 2.8%
4 2.1%
5 2.6%
6 3.2%
7 3.1%
8 0.9%
9 0.3%
10 0.1%
11 0.0%		 1 0.0%
2 0.1%
3 0.4%
4 3.3%
5 14.8%
6 31.6%
7 35.1%
8 10.0%
9 3.6%
10 0.8%
11 0.2%		 1 93.0%
2 6.9%
3 0.0%
Boston University 1 0.2%
2 1.4%
3 5.6%
4 23.2%
5 34.0%
6 19.1%
7 6.5%
8 0.6%
9 1.4%
10 2.4%
11 3.1%
12 2.4%
13 0.1%
14 0.0%		 5 0.0%
6 0.3%
7 2.4%
8 5.9%
9 13.2%
10 23.6%
11 30.1%
12 23.8%
13 0.7%
14 0.0%		 1 0.5%
2 3.0%
3 12.1%
4 47.0%
5 37.3%
6 0.1%
7 0.0%
Miami 3 0.0%
4 0.0%
5 1.2%
6 8.3%
7 21.4%
8 30.4%
9 29.8%
10 8.8%
11 0.0%
12 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Michigan State 5 0.0%
6 0.1%
7 1.0%
8 5.9%
9 23.0%
10 35.9%
11 23.3%
12 10.4%
13 0.5%
14 0.0%		 n/a n/a
UMN 2 0.0%
3 0.0%
4 1.3%
5 14.2%
6 37.4%
7 29.5%
8 4.6%
9 1.3%
10 1.2%
11 3.1%
12 3.3%
13 2.4%
14 0.7%
15 0.5%
16 0.4%
17 0.1%
18 0.0%
19 0.0%		 7 0.0%
8 0.2%
9 0.9%
10 8.8%
11 26.0%
12 27.7%
13 20.6%
14 6.2%
15 4.8%
16 3.8%
17 0.7%
18 0.3%
19 0.0%		 2 0.0%
3 0.0%
4 2.7%
5 27.4%
6 50.3%
7 18.5%
8 0.8%
9 0.2%
10 0.0%
11 0.0%
Mass.-Lowell 2 0.1%
3 1.8%
4 13.6%
5 15.5%
6 23.9%
7 18.1%
8 8.0%
9 5.7%
10 2.9%
11 4.0%
12 2.4%
13 1.7%
14 1.1%
15 0.8%
16 0.4%
17 0.1%
18 0.0%
19 0.0%		 6 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.4%
9 2.6%
10 9.7%
11 16.2%
12 21.3%
13 20.0%
14 12.7%
15 9.8%
16 5.2%
17 1.7%
18 0.2%
19 0.0%		 2 0.1%
3 3.5%
4 26.8%
5 27.9%
6 29.7%
7 11.7%
8 0.3%
Northern Michigan 5 0.0%
6 0.0%
7 0.1%
8 1.2%
9 5.7%
10 15.5%
11 26.4%
12 17.0%
13 9.8%
14 7.7%
15 3.9%
16 4.1%
17 3.6%
18 4.8%
19 0.2%
20 0.0%		 13 0.0%
14 0.0%
15 0.4%
16 6.0%
17 26.5%
18 64.0%
19 2.8%
20 0.2%		 5 0.0%
6 0.0%
7 0.2%
8 1.4%
9 6.5%
10 17.7%
11 30.2%
12 19.4%
13 11.2%
14 8.7%
15 3.2%
16 1.5%
17 0.0%
Maine 5 0.0%
6 0.0%
7 0.3%
8 1.6%
9 8.2%
10 22.8%
11 21.0%
12 14.4%
13 9.3%
14 9.8%
15 5.8%
16 5.3%
17 1.2%
18 0.4%
19 0.0%		 8 0.0%
9 0.1%
10 0.6%
11 2.1%
12 11.3%
13 21.1%
14 28.0%
15 16.8%
16 15.4%
17 3.5%
18 1.1%
19 0.0%		 5 0.0%
6 0.0%
7 0.5%
8 2.5%
9 12.4%
10 34.4%
11 30.8%
12 16.1%
13 3.0%
14 0.2%
15 0.0%
UND 9 0.0%
10 0.2%
11 3.8%
12 10.2%
13 23.7%
14 23.9%
15 15.8%
16 13.5%
17 5.9%
18 3.0%
19 0.0%		 14 0.1%
15 1.9%
16 12.1%
17 31.4%
18 54.5%
19 0.0%		 9 0.0%
10 0.3%
11 6.5%
12 17.3%
13 39.2%
14 31.2%
15 4.4%
16 1.1%
Western Michigan 13 0.0%
14 0.3%
15 4.1%
16 27.6%
17 48.7%
18 19.3%
19 0.1%		 n/a n/a
Denver 6 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.1%
9 0.8%
10 4.3%
11 13.6%
12 32.8%
13 31.8%
14 6.2%
15 5.3%
16 3.7%
17 0.9%
18 0.6%
19 0.0%
20 0.0%		 11 0.0%
12 0.2%
13 5.2%
14 16.1%
15 37.7%
16 29.0%
17 7.2%
18 4.7%
19 0.0%
20 0.0%		 6 0.0%
7 0.0%
8 0.2%
9 1.9%
10 9.6%
11 23.8%
12 36.3%
13 26.5%
14 1.5%
15 0.1%
16 0.0%
Merrimack 9 0.0%
10 0.1%
11 1.1%
12 3.8%
13 5.9%
14 10.7%
15 13.8%
16 20.5%
17 13.8%
18 23.5%
19 2.6%
20 1.9%
21 1.6%
22 0.5%
23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.0%		 15 0.0%
16 0.0%
17 1.6%
18 57.8%
19 10.3%
20 13.7%
21 12.4%
22 3.8%
23 0.3%
24 0.0%
25 0.0%		 9 0.0%
10 0.2%
11 2.8%
12 9.2%
13 13.3%
14 20.7%
15 18.3%
16 12.7%
17 10.2%
18 11.2%
19 1.4%
20 0.0%
Notre Dame 11 0.0%
12 0.0%
13 0.1%
14 1.0%
15 3.0%
16 6.2%
17 14.9%
18 27.1%
19 11.7%
20 20.1%
21 11.0%
22 4.0%
23 0.9%
24 0.0%		 17 0.0%
18 1.8%
19 16.0%
20 37.6%
21 27.7%
22 13.4%
23 3.4%
24 0.1%		 11 0.0%
12 0.0%
13 0.3%
14 2.0%
15 5.9%
16 12.3%
17 29.3%
18 50.0%
19 0.1%
20 0.0%
Ohio State 10 0.0%
11 0.0%
12 0.2%
13 0.8%
14 3.8%
15 7.5%
16 10.5%
17 10.6%
18 17.2%
19 25.9%
20 17.7%
21 4.6%
22 1.3%
23 0.0%
24 0.0%		 18 1.2%
19 39.3%
20 40.1%
21 14.5%
22 4.8%
23 0.2%
24 0.0%		 10 0.0%
11 0.0%
12 0.4%
13 1.6%
14 7.6%
15 15.1%
16 21.1%
17 21.5%
18 32.4%
19 0.2%
20 0.0%
Union 3 0.0%
4 0.0%
5 0.2%
6 3.3%
7 20.0%
8 46.7%
9 23.8%
10 5.8%
11 0.2%
12 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Lake Superior 17 0.0%
18 1.4%
19 29.4%
20 23.4%
21 15.0%
22 10.5%
23 8.6%
24 6.1%
25 3.5%
26 1.7%
27 0.4%
28 0.0%
29 0.0%		 20 0.3%
21 4.0%
22 13.2%
23 24.7%
24 28.0%
25 18.1%
26 9.4%
27 2.1%
28 0.1%
29 0.0%		 17 0.0%
18 2.2%
19 45.9%
20 33.6%
21 13.8%
22 4.4%
23 0.1%
24 0.0%
CC 18 2.2%
19 25.8%
20 23.7%
21 25.1%
22 9.5%
23 5.5%
24 4.5%
25 2.5%
26 0.9%
27 0.2%
28 0.0%
29 0.0%
30 0.0%		 20 0.2%
21 3.3%
22 21.9%
23 28.9%
24 25.1%
25 14.1%
26 5.1%
27 1.2%
28 0.1%
29 0.0%
30 0.0%		 18 6.2%
19 71.4%
20 21.1%
21 1.3%
22 0.1%
Cornell 9 0.0%
10 0.0%
11 0.4%
12 3.2%
13 14.0%
14 34.9%
15 39.6%
16 7.8%
17 0.1%		 n/a n/a
UW 16 0.0%
17 0.0%
18 0.2%
19 2.7%
20 6.2%
21 13.6%
22 11.1%
23 6.3%
24 6.5%
25 7.4%
26 6.2%
27 7.4%
28 10.6%
29 11.1%
30 7.4%
31 2.7%
32 0.6%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%		 24 0.1%
25 3.3%
26 8.0%
27 15.2%
28 23.7%
29 25.2%
30 16.8%
31 6.2%
32 1.3%
33 0.2%
34 0.0%		 16 0.0%
17 0.1%
18 1.7%
19 23.2%
20 37.9%
21 27.4%
22 7.7%
23 1.4%
24 0.3%
25 0.1%
26 0.0%
27 0.0%
Northeastern 18 0.0%
19 0.0%
20 0.2%
21 1.0%
22 1.8%
23 2.2%
24 3.7%
25 8.7%
26 13.1%
27 12.1%
28 7.6%
29 3.1%
30 1.3%
31 1.1%
32 0.7%
33 0.3%
34 0.0%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 42.9%		 26 0.0%
27 0.0%
28 0.2%
29 0.6%
30 1.6%
31 2.3%
32 1.6%
33 0.6%
34 0.1%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 93.0%		 18 0.0%
19 0.1%
20 1.9%
21 10.2%
22 17.7%
23 21.8%
24 24.6%
25 16.0%
26 6.6%
27 1.1%
28 0.1%
29 0.0%
SCSU 17 0.0%
18 0.3%
19 0.9%
20 1.9%
21 2.6%
22 3.3%
23 2.5%
24 4.5%
25 7.7%
26 11.6%
27 9.6%
28 4.9%
29 1.5%
30 1.1%
31 0.6%
32 0.4%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 46.5%		 23 0.0%
24 0.0%
25 0.1%
26 0.2%
27 0.4%
28 0.7%
29 1.0%
30 1.7%
31 1.2%
32 0.8%
33 0.2%
34 0.0%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 93.5%		 17 0.5%
18 3.6%
19 10.7%
20 21.6%
21 28.6%
22 28.4%
23 6.0%
24 0.7%
25 0.0%
Bemidji State 22 0.0%
23 0.1%
24 2.0%
25 9.3%
26 19.1%
27 14.0%
28 9.1%
29 12.0%
30 13.3%
31 7.5%
32 2.7%
33 0.7%
34 0.1%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 10.1%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 22 0.0%
23 0.1%
24 4.3%
25 19.8%
26 40.4%
27 27.0%
28 6.8%
29 1.5%
30 0.1%
31 0.0%
New Hampshire 22 0.0%
23 0.0%
24 0.9%
25 4.6%
26 9.0%
27 10.3%
28 7.7%
29 8.5%
30 13.9%
31 14.2%
32 7.9%
33 1.8%
34 0.2%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 21.0%		 25 0.0%
26 0.0%
27 0.2%
28 2.1%
29 9.3%
30 20.0%
31 21.4%
32 12.0%
33 2.8%
34 0.2%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 32.0%		 22 0.0%
23 0.1%
24 2.7%
25 13.4%
26 26.2%
27 29.7%
28 18.2%
29 6.9%
30 2.4%
31 0.4%
32 0.0%
33 0.0%
Alaska 25 0.0%
26 0.0%
27 0.1%
28 0.7%
29 2.2%
30 4.1%
31 4.7%
32 3.4%
33 1.4%
34 0.3%
35 0.0%
36 0.0%
Non-TUC 83.1%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 25 0.0%
26 0.0%
27 0.2%
28 1.8%
29 6.0%
30 11.1%
31 12.8%
32 9.1%
33 3.8%
34 0.8%
35 0.1%
36 0.0%
Non-TUC 54.3%
Nebraska-Omaha 20 0.0%
21 0.4%
22 2.6%
23 4.6%
24 3.1%
25 1.3%
26 1.0%
27 6.3%
28 15.7%
29 16.2%
30 5.8%
31 0.8%
32 0.0%
Non-TUC 42.2%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 20 0.1%
21 2.9%
22 21.5%
23 37.7%
24 25.2%
25 10.3%
26 1.9%
27 0.3%
28 0.0%
Massachusetts 21 0.0%
22 0.3%
23 1.1%
24 3.0%
25 4.0%
26 2.7%
27 2.5%
28 5.8%
29 12.4%
30 13.8%
31 9.5%
32 3.2%
33 0.6%
34 0.1%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 41.0%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 21 0.1%
22 2.3%
23 8.6%
24 23.3%
25 30.9%
26 21.2%
27 10.7%
28 2.6%
29 0.4%
30 0.0%
31 0.0%
MTech 23 0.0%
24 0.3%
25 1.0%
26 2.3%
27 3.9%
28 4.1%
29 3.1%
30 2.0%
31 0.9%
32 0.2%
33 0.0%
Non-TUC 82.1%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 23 0.1%
24 1.6%
25 5.8%
26 12.7%
27 22.0%
28 22.7%
29 17.3%
30 11.4%
31 5.1%
32 1.2%
33 0.0%
Harvard 18 0.0%
19 0.4%
20 3.5%
21 17.9%
22 32.0%
23 24.7%
24 16.9%
25 3.4%
26 1.0%
27 0.1%
28 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Providence 25 0.0%
26 0.1%
27 0.4%
28 1.2%
29 2.0%
30 2.3%
31 1.6%
32 0.7%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 91.7%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 25 0.1%
26 0.7%
27 4.7%
28 14.4%
29 23.7%
30 27.6%
31 19.1%
32 8.0%
33 1.6%
34 0.2%
35 0.0%
Quinnipiac 18 0.0%
19 0.3%
20 1.4%
21 6.6%
22 16.4%
23 21.2%
24 20.0%
25 13.9%
26 6.4%
27 4.2%
28 3.7%
29 3.0%
30 1.9%
31 0.8%
32 0.2%
33 0.0%
34 0.0%		 24 0.1%
25 1.1%
26 5.8%
27 14.4%
28 22.9%
29 24.1%
30 19.4%
31 9.6%
32 2.3%
33 0.3%
34 0.0%		 18 0.0%
19 0.3%
20 1.8%
21 8.1%
22 20.1%
23 25.9%
24 24.0%
25 15.2%
26 4.1%
27 0.4%
28 0.0%
29 0.0%
Colgate 20 0.0%
21 0.5%
22 6.6%
23 22.1%
24 27.9%
25 29.2%
26 11.3%
27 2.1%
28 0.2%
29 0.0%
30 0.0%		 n/a n/a
Bowling Green Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
St. Lawrence Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Yale 26 0.0%
27 0.1%
28 0.6%
29 2.0%
30 5.0%
31 7.7%
32 6.9%
33 3.6%
34 1.0%
35 0.1%
36 0.0%
Non-TUC 73.1%		 Non-TUC 100.0% 26 0.0%
27 0.1%
28 0.9%
29 3.2%
30 8.0%
31 12.3%
32 11.0%
33 5.8%
34 1.5%
35 0.2%
36 0.0%
Non-TUC 57.0%
Mankato Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Clarkson Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
AA Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Air Force 23 0.0%
24 0.4%
25 3.4%
26 13.6%
27 26.3%
28 27.4%
29 17.3%
30 8.3%
31 2.8%
32 0.4%
33 0.0%		 n/a n/a
RIT 27 0.0%
28 0.0%
29 0.1%
30 0.3%
31 0.3%
32 0.2%
33 0.1%
34 0.0%
35 0.0%
Non-TUC 98.9%		 n/a n/a
Niagara Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Dartmouth Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Princeton Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Mercyhurst Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
Robert Morris Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Holy Cross Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Rensselaer Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Vermont Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Brown Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Bentley Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Connecticut Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Canisius Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Alabama-Huntsville Non-TUC 100.0% n/a n/a
American Int’l Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Army Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%
Sacred Heart Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0% Non-TUC 100.0%

Three conferences (the AHA, CCHA, and ECAC) are already in their conference playoffs this week playing best-of-three series. For those teams the “win all” column includes all the scenarios in which that team wins two games, combining scenarios in which they go 2-0 with those in which they go 2-1.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations.

Resources