Sioux Sports Talk

The #14 UND men’s hockey team continues to do what’s required to keep its NCAA playoff hopes alive, but faces a tough test against the #12 Denver Pioneers, who also find themselves needing a good run to ensure an NCAA playoff bid.

With a win and a tie last weekend, UND can still afford one more loss and still be well-positioned for the NCAA playoffs (#13 or higher in the PWR Rankings) going into conference tournament time. With two or three more losses, UND’s playoff hopes would still be alive, but dependent on a good run in the WCHA tournament.

Probability of UND ending the regular season with a particular PWR rank or higher based on UND’s performance

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2	Win 3	Win 4
1	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%
4	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.25%
5	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.35%
6	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	10.75%
7	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.07%	28.09%
8	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.50%	51.64%
9	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.38%	74.58%
10	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	8.54%	90.66%
11	0.00%	0.00%	0.12%	23.71%	98.18%
12	0.00%	0.00%	1.05%	49.03%	99.97%
13	0.00%	0.01%	5.96%	76.28%	100.00%
14	0.00%	0.21%	21.18%	93.17%	100.00%
15	0.00%	2.62%	49.72%	98.80%	100.00%
16	0.23%	11.96%	78.98%	99.86%	100.00%
17	2.04%	30.27%	94.10%	99.99%	100.00%
18	8.32%	53.23%	98.82%	100.00%	100.00%
19	23.98%	74.92%	99.81%	100.00%	100.00%
20	48.34%	90.09%	99.98%	100.00%	100.00%

With just one more loss, UND would stand about a 76% chance of finishing #13 or higher. With two more losses, that drops to 6%.

UND isn’t alone in watching this weekend’s matchup with keen interest. Denver wants at least two wins in its remaining four regular games to ensure heading into the conference playoffs at #13 or higher, though can afford to slip a little more than UND.

With a sweep last weekend, Minnesota is looking more like a lock for the NCAA tournament.

And CC’s recent struggles have given the Tigers a steep, but doable, hill to climb.

This weekend

UND’s outcome spread for the weekend is tightening up a bit.

Probability of UND ending the regular season with a particular PWR rank or higher based on UND’s performance

PWR	Win 0	Win 1	Win 2
1	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%
5	0.00%	0.00%	0.13%
6	0.00%	0.00%	1.51%
7	0.00%	0.00%	7.74%
8	0.00%	0.00%	23.03%
9	0.00%	0.00%	46.96%
10	0.00%	0.08%	74.56%
11	0.00%	1.10%	93.94%
12	0.00%	8.02%	99.78%
13	0.23%	33.01%	100.00%
14	2.64%	68.60%	100.00%
15	13.38%	91.72%	100.00%
16	40.17%	98.83%	100.00%
17	68.82%	99.92%	100.00%
18	87.60%	100.00%	100.00%
19	96.54%	100.00%	100.00%
20	99.42%	100.00%	100.00%
21	99.94%	100.00%	100.00%
22	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%
23	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%
24	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%
25	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%

While a sweep would obviously be great for the Sioux, even a split would give UND about a 69% chance of leaving the weekend #14 or higher.

Who Sioux fans should watch

Here are the outcomes that result in an average move of at least .75 PWR spots for UND across the simulations, sorted by UND outcome so you know which are defensive. Lists are in order of importance.

If UND sweeps:

• Alaska-Anchorage over Alaska (sweep)
• Colorado College over Minnesota-Duluth (sweep)
• Notre Dame over Michigan St (sweep)
• Northeastern over Maine (at least one)
• Nebraska-Omaha over Minnesota (at least one)

If UND splits:

• Alaska-Anchorage over Alaska (sweep)
• Mass.-Lowell over Merrimack (at least one)
• Nebraska-Omaha over Minnesota (at least one)
• Lake Superior splits with Northern Michigan

If UND gets swept:

• Alaska-Anchorage over Alaska (at least one)
• Mass.-Lowell over Merrimack (sweep)
• Ferris St. over Western Michigan (at least one)
• Michigan St. over Notre Dame (at least one)
• Minnesota-Duluth over Colorado College (at least one)

This being only the second week I’ve split the “what to watch” by UND outcome, it’s interesting to see how what maximizes UND’s outcome for the week changes based on UND’s own performance. If UND sweeps, Sioux fans will be cheering for Colorado College and Notre Dame to knock off bigger dogs.

With a one-week outlook, though, CC and ND will be nipping at our heels if the Sioux lose, such that our one-week PWR would be maximized by each losing at least one game. However, to make the tournament UND needs to be looking up the ladder not down, so our overall final PWR outcome still probably draws the most benefit from those lower ranked teams sweeping those higher ranked teams.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least a million monte carlo style simulation of the remaining games in the regular season. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations.

Resources

• Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
• CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
• TBRW build your own rankings (slack.net)
• Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
• A first look at the PairWise Rankings and UND’s tournament possibilities
• Change to COP calculation in PWR formula (USCHO.com)

One of these teams, but likely not both, will be at home for the first round of the WCHA playoffs in March.

For North Dakota, it would be their tenth consecutive home playoff series, the longest active streak in the league. Michigan Tech has never hosted the first round of the conference tournament under the current fomat.

The Huskies sit one point back of 6th place UND in the race for home ice. Colorado College and Nebraska-Omaha are tied for 4th place, one point ahead of North Dakota. The top six teams in the final WCHA standings will earn home playoff games.

It would be easy for the casual fan to overlook first year head coach Mel Pearson and his Michigan Tech squad, given the fact that UND has taken the last ten meetings between the teams by a combined score of 53-14. But MTU is improved in every area – scoring offense, scoring defense, power play, and penalty kill – and expect to have junior forward Milos Gordic (8-5-13 in 20 games) back for this series.

For the record, Mel Pearson spent the previous 23 seasons as an assistant coach at Michigan and was behind the bench for the Wolverines 2-0 Frozen Four victory over North Dakota last April. MTU assistant coach Bill Muckalt and goaltending coach Steve Shields are former Michigan players. Pearson played his college hockey at Michigan Tech.

North Dakota continues to roll out the only healthy bodies left in the locker room, and have gone 12-4-1 in the last 17 games. After a torried 6-2-1 start, Michigan Tech is a pedestrian 6-9-2 in the past 17.

For UND, junior goaltender Aaron Dell has played the majority of minutes this season, but look for Dell and senior netminder Brad Eidsness to split starts this weekend.

It’s a bit of an unusual end to the regular season for the Green and White: after hosting Michigan Tech in the first two meetings between the teams this year, North Dakota plays at Denver and vs. MSU-Mankato to close out the schedule, two other teams UND has not faced all season.

After next season (2012-13), it is unclear whether North Dakota and Michigan Tech will continue their storied rivalry. UND will move to the National Collegiate Hockey Conference, while MTU will remain in the WCHA and maintain ownership of the historic MacNaughton Cup.

Michigan Tech Team Profile

Head Coach: Mel Pearson (1st season at MTU, 13-14-3, .483)
Pairwise Ranking: NR
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 13-14-3 overall, 10-9-3 WCHA (7th)
Last Season: 4-30-4 overall, 2-24-2 WCHA (12th)

Team Offense: 3.07 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.6% (28 of 136)
Penalty Kill: 83.8% (109 of 130)

Key Players: Senior F Brett Olson (9-18-27), Senior F Jordan Baker (9-16-25), Junior F Milos Gordic (8-5-13), Freshman F David Johnstone (9-14-23), Junior D Steven Seigo (3-16-19), Sophomore D Daniel Sova (2-9-11), Senior G Josh Robinson (12-11-3, 2.85 GAA, .909 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 203-104-29, .647)
Pairwise Ranking: t-15th
National Rankings: #14/#15
This Season: 16-11-2 overall, 12-10-0 WCHA (6th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.07 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.79 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.3% (29 of 136)
Penalty Kill: 81.5% (101 of 124)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (14-17-31) Junior F Corban Knight (8-18-26), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (20-12-32), Freshman D Nick Mattson (5-10-15), Senior D Ben Blood (2-12-14), Junior G Aaron Dell (12-9-2, 2.80 GAA, .890 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: March 12, 2011 (Grand Forks, ND). In the second and decisive game of the WCHA first-round playoff series, UND battled a tough Michigan Tech squad and secured a 3-1 victory to advance to the WCHA Final Five in St. Paul, MN. Two second period goals in the span of two minutes erased an early 1-0 Michigan Tech lead. North Dakota had won the previous three meetings between the teams by a combined score of 25-3.

Most Important Meeting: The Sioux and Huskies have never met in the NCAA tournament, so I will go with the most important meeting that never was: in 1965, the Sioux lost to Boston College, 4-3, one game short of the national championship game, where they would have faced the Michigan Tech Huskies, who won the second of their three titles by defeating the Eagles. UND settled for third place that season, downing Brown University, 9-5. North Dakota went 13-3-0 in the regular season in 1964-65, with two of those three losses coming at the hands of Michigan Tech.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 144-90-9 (.611), including a 81-33-4 (.703) record in games played in Grand Forks. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: UND has won the last ten games between the teams. The last time the Huskies earned a point against North Dakota was back in January 2009, when the teams skated to a 3-3 tie in Houghton. North Dakota avenged the tie with a 5-0 drubbing the following night. The Fighting Sioux have outscored the Huskies 53-14 in the last ten games.

Game News and Notes

UND head coach Dave Hakstol is 22-5-1 (.804) in his coaching career against Michigan Tech. MTU has picked up points in four of five road series this season. Bemidji State is the only WCHA team to sweep the visiting Huskies this year. North Dakota junior forward Carter Rowney is on a tear this season, potting twelve goals this season (29 games) after collecting just four goals in his first two years at UND (67 games).

The Prediction

The Huskies are eager to bring their new look to Engelstad Arena, and Friday’s first period will tell the tale. Both games will be close, and Michigan Tech could earn a point or two this weekend, but UND has been focused, particularly at home. UND 4-3, 5-3.

With just 6 games left in the regular season, UND’s PWR outlook remains pretty clear. Consistent with last week’s forecast (that UND could lose two more and likely be in the top 13 at the end of the regular season) and results (one loss), this week’s forecast shows that UND can only lose one more and still be more likely than not to finish the regular season top 13.

However, as also revealed last week, if UND loses two more, the Sioux are right on the cusp (a 47% chance of being #14 or higher) such that a good result and/or a little bit of luck in the WCHA tournament could be enough to push the Sioux into the NCAAs.

Presented a little differently, here are UND chances of being at or above each rank at the end of the regular season based on the number of remaining games the Sioux win:

PWR Rank	Win 2	Win 3	Win 4	Win 5	Win 6
1	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%
2	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.10%
3	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.10%
4	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	6.72%
5	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.23%	23.02%
6	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.56%	51.30%
7	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	6.03%	78.00%
8	0.00%	0.00%	0.06%	16.51%	93.08%
9	0.00%	0.00%	0.33%	33.75%	98.37%
10	0.00%	0.00%	1.35%	55.06%	99.73%
11	0.00%	0.00%	4.48%	75.34%	99.96%
12	0.00%	0.02%	12.21%	89.36%	100.00%
13	0.00%	0.18%	26.55%	96.59%	100.00%
14	0.00%	1.02%	46.97%	99.20%	100.00%
15	0.02%	4.25%	68.87%	99.87%	100.00%
16	0.16%	12.70%	85.82%	99.99%	100.00%
17	0.93%	28.49%	95.32%	100.00%	100.00%
18	3.73%	49.73%	98.93%	100.00%	100.00%
19	11.86%	71.49%	99.83%	100.00%	100.00%
20	28.10%	88.11%	99.98%	100.00%	100.00%

Remember that once the regular season is finished, UND still has a chance to play up to about five more games in the conference tournament.

End of regular season outlooks for other WCHA teams on the bubble

Colorado College is in a slightly worse spot than the Sioux. Losing just one more gives the Tigers a 71% chance of finishing #13 or higher, while losing 2 more leaves CC with only a 3% chance of finishing #13 or higher.

Minnesota, in contrast, is in a slightly better spot than the Sioux. Even with two more losses, the Gophers stand a 79% chance of being top 13 at the end of the regular season. With three more losses that plummets to 6.8%, while with only a single loss that rockets to 99.2%.

One week outlook

The Sioux, once again, face a large spread in their possible PWR outcomes for the weekend. A sweep is most likely to push the Sioux into the 20-22 range, while getting swept is likely to drop them as much as ten spots.

Ferris St., sitting on its first #1 PWR ranking, is going to have to work this weekend to hold onto it. Even with a sweep, the Bulldogs have only a 35% chance of staying #1, while with a split that likelihood drops to 9%. The series, other than their own, which would be most beneficial to Ferris St this week is Merrimack defeating Boston College.

Minnesota faces an even bigger spread than UND. The Gophers have big stakes in quite a few games this week, cheering for (in order of importance):

• Wisconsin over Denver
• St. Cloud over Alaska Anchorage
• Boston College over Merrimack
• Massachusetts over Maine

Finally, Colorado College is the only one of the three WCHA bubble teams that is unlikely to move into tournament position this weekend, even with a sweep.

Methodology

Each forecast is based on at least a million monte carlo style simulation of the remaining games in the regular season. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations.

Resources

• Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
• CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
• TBRW build your own rankings (slack.net)
• Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
• A first look at the PairWise Rankings and UND’s tournament possibilities
• Change to COP calculation in PWR formula (USCHO.com)

North Dakota has lost just three times in the past 15 games (11-3-1), and, according to Jim Dahl’s work, could find themselves in the top ten of the Pairwise rankings with a sweep this weekend. UND would also likely rise a bit in the Pairwise with a split.

Minnesota-Duluth has shown some cracks in the armor recently. The Bulldogs have gone just 3-3-1 in the past seven after rattling off a 17-game unbeaten streak (14-0-3). Losses to Michigan Tech and Alaska-Anchorage in consecutive weekends have some in Duluth wondering if UMD can repeat as NCAA champions.

At the end of last season (2010-11), many expected these two squads to go to battle for the national title. Duluth held up their end of the bargain, dispatching Notre Dame in their semifinal. UND fell short, however, falling to Michigan 2-0 in heartbreaking fashion.

North Dakota and Minnesota-Duluth are two of eight schools scheduled to begin play in the new National Collegiate Hockey Conference beginning in 2013-14.

Minnesota-Duluth Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Sandelin (12th season at UMD, 210-206-56, .504)
Pairwise Ranking: 5th
National Rankings: #3/#3
This Season: 18-6-4 overall, 12-5-3 WCHA (2nd)
Last Season: 26-10-6 overall (NCAA National Champions), 15-8-5 WCHA (4th)

Team Offense: 3.75 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.46 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.7% (26 of 139)
Penalty Kill: 78.1% (100 of 128)

Key Players: Senior F Jack Connolly (15-27-42), Sophomore F J.T. Brown (16-21-37), Senior F Travis Oleksuk (16-21-37), Senior D Brady Lamb (5-14-19), Senior D Scott Kishel (3-14-17), Senior G Kenny Reiter (17-5-4, 2.30 GAA, .914 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 202-103-29, .648)
Pairwise Ranking: t-15th
National Rankings: #16/#15
This Season: 15-10-2 overall, 11-9-0 WCHA (t-5th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.04 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.78 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.4% (27 of 126)
Penalty Kill: 83.8% (93 of 111)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (14-17-31) Junior F Corban Knight (8-18-26), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (19-12-31), Freshman D Nick Mattson (5-10-15), Senior D Ben Blood (2-11-13), Junior G Aaron Dell (11-8-2, 2.81 GAA, .892 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 30, 2010 (Duluth, MN). North Dakota scored three 2nd period goals in a span of 74 seconds to spoil the opening of Amsoil Arena for the homestanding Bulldogs. The U.S. Hockey Hall of Fame Game featured #3 UND against #2 Duluth, and the visiting squad from Grand Forks blanked UMD 5-0. Arena officials had to sound the goal horn after the game to let fans know how it would sound.

Most Important Meeting: March 22, 1984 (Lake Placid, NY) Minnesota-Duluth and North Dakota met in the national semifinal game, with the Bulldogs defeating the Fighting Sioux 2-1 in overtime to advance to the championship. UND went on to defeat Michigan State 6-5 (OT) for third place, while Duluth fell to Bowling Green 5-4 in four overtimes, the longest championship game ever played.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 134-74-8 (.639), including a 54-38-5 (.582) record in games played in Duluth.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 6-4-0 (.600) in the last ten games between the teams. UND has outscored Duluth 30-19 in the past ten contests.

Game News and Notes

UND teammates Danny Kristo and Ben Blood are among 77 players on the fan ballot for college hockey’s Hobey Baker Award. Head coaches Dave Hakstol and Scott Sandelin each have notched more than 200 career victories. UMD’s recent skid came after a string of eight straight road games. Both North Dakota goalies (Aaron Dell and Brad Eidsness) have sub-1.90 goals-against averages in games against Duluth.

The Prediction

North Dakota is finding ways to get points on the road every weekend, but Duluth is looking to flip the scoreboard from last season’s 5-0 embarrassment. It’s possible that UND will notch three points this weekend by tying one up late, but I’ll go with a split. UMD 3-2, UND 4-2.

Bye weeks this time of year give us a great window into how much PWR movement is external to our team’s own performance. While staying put at #16 is actually the single most likely outcome, anything from #14 to #17 is reasonably likely (#10 to #21 are mathematically possible).

PWR	Likelihood
10	0.001%
11	0.063%
12	0.654%
13	3.459%
14	11.078%
15	23.734%
16	33.407%
17	19.939%
18	6.276%
19	1.305%
20	0.084%
21	0.000%

The games/series that would benefit idle UND the most are:

• Michigan sweep over Miami
• Ohio St winning at least one over Michigan St
• Ferris St sweep over Northern Michigan
• Alaska winning at least one over Western Michigan
• CC sweep over Denver

End of season outlook

The story is unchanged from last week, UND can lose 2 games and still finish the regular season with a likely at-large tournament bid (PWR higher than 13). With a sweep last weekend, they’ve moved from needing 8 of 10 to needing 6 of 8.

Most important series for UND

bigchief asked last week which remaining series is most important for UND. They’re all pretty close, but here are the average relative differences in rankings for UND based on its performance in each series:

Matchup	Average increase in PWR from 1 win	Average increase in PWR from 2 wins
UND over Denver	3.67	7.67
UND over UMD	3.70	7.49
UND over MTech	3.55	6.81
UND over Mankato	3.07	6.17

For example, if UND sweeps Denver it finishes an average of 7.67 PWR ranks higher than if it gets swept by Denver.

Checking up on last week’s prediction

Last week I said that if UND swept, #15-18 were most likely. As you can see on the chart, the single most likely ranking was #16 at about 22%, which is exactly where UND landed.

Similarly, UW showed a strong peak at #27, about a 61% chance, if UND swept. The Badgers currently sit at #27.

Mass. Lowell winning two of three last week prevented us from finding out if they were really on as precarious a cliff as I predicted, but they did land firmly in the predicted range for winning two. A split between Miami and Northern Michigan also prevented the big movement that seemed possible for both with a sweep in either direction.

Following Northern Michigan and Mass.-Lowell

These two continue to generate buzz, so here’s a longer term (end of regular season) outlook for each.

With 8 regular season games remaining, Northern Michigan is well-positioned, but needs to keep producing. A 1-seed isn’t out of reach, but would require a good run.

With 10 regular season games remaining, Mass.-Lowell is in the driver’s seat. Only a stunning loss of form, losing over half their remaining games, would likely drop them into the danger zone of not making the tournament. Winning 7 would position them well for a 1 seed.

Resources

• Current PWR Rankings (SiouxSports.com)
• CHN PWR Rankings (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
• TBRW build your own rankings (slack.net)
• Explanation of how PWR mimics NCAA tournament selection (CollegeHockeyNews.com)
• A first look at the PairWise Rankings and UND’s tournament possibilities
• Change to COP calculation in PWR formula (USCHO.com)

There are two trends at odds this weekend when North Dakota travels to St. Cloud to face the Huskies:

Trend #1: In the past eleven games this season, North Dakota is 8-2-1, while St. Cloud State is just 3-6-2.

Trend #2: Since 1998, UND is winless on Friday nights at SCSU (0-7-4) but has come back strong on Saturday nights (9-1-1).

Another issue at play in this critical WCHA series is that both teams are playing shorthanded.

For St. Cloud, sophomore forwards Cam Reid and Mitch MacMillan have left the team for better opportunities, while senior forward Drew LeBlanc (2-10-12 in 10 games) and junior goaltender Mike Lee (2-2-1, 3.34 GAA, .896 SV%) suffered injuries. Mike Lee is close to returning and could see action this weekend.

On the North Dakota side, it’s even worse. Before the season started, the predicted 2nd and 3rd line forwards were J.T.Miller, Colten St. Clair, Rocco Grimaldi, Derek Rodwell, Michael Parks, and Brendan O’Donnell. None of those six forwards will play in these games.

Miller backed out of his commitment to UND, and St. Clair has not yet cleared the NCAA Eligibility Center. Grimaldi and Rodwell are in line for season-ending surgeries, while Parks and O’Donnell are nursing injuries and unable to suit up this weekend.

Put another way: UND is competing this weekend with a top line of Danny Kristo/Corban Knight/Brock Nelson and a whole slew of fourth line forwards. UND is so thin up front that it is possible (though unlikely) that third-string goaltender Tate Maris could suit up and see action as a forward on the fourth line.

On the blue line, North Dakota’s Derek Forbort sustained a lower body injury while playing for the United States at the World Junior tournament and has yet to return to the lineup.

The teams split an October series in Grand Forks, so the UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is on the line this weekend in St. Cloud.

St. Cloud State Team Profile

Head Coach: (Bob Motzko, 7th season at SCSU, 129-103-33, .549)
Pairwise Ranking: 30th (tie)
National Rankings: NR/NR
This Season: 9-11-4 overall, 6-7-3 WCHA (8th)
Last Season: 15-18-5 overall, 11-13 4 WCHA (9th)

Team Offense: 3.12 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.04 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.7% (19 of 92)
Penalty Kill: 75.8% (72 of 95))

Key Players: Senior F Jared Festler (10-8-18), Junior F Ben Hanowski (12-13-25), Senior F Travis Novak (7-10-17), Freshman D Jarrod Rabey (2-5-7), Sophomore D Nick Jensen (5-14-19), Freshman G Ryan Faragher (7-9-3, 2.82 GAA, .909 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 199-102-29, .647)
Pairwise Ranking: 18th (tie)
National Rankings: #17/#16
This Season: 12-9-2 overall, 8-8-0 WCHA (7th)
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)

Team Offense: 3.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.83 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.2% (24 of 113)
Penalty Kill: 82.5% (80 of 97)

Key Players: Junior F Danny Kristo (12-13-25) Junior F Corban Knight (6-15-21), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (16-9-25), Freshman D Nick Mattson (5-8-13), Senior D Ben Blood (2-9-11), Senior G Brad Eidsness (3-1-0, 2.48 GAA, .915 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 29, 2011 (Grand Forks, ND). The Huskies blanked North Dakota 4-0 in Friday’s opener, but UND exacted revenge on Saturday. North Dakota forwards Corban Knight and Brock Nelson potted second period goals just 89 seconds apart to lead the Green and White to a 3-1 home victory.

Last Meeting in St. Cloud: February 19, 2011. One night after Matt Frattin’s late goal salvaged a tie and earned North Dakota the Challenge Cup, UND’s Brett Hextall broke a 2-2 tie early in the third and the Fighting Sioux held on to defeat the homestanding Huskies, 3-2. The victory was the first of eleven wins in a row for North Dakota.

Most Important Meeting: March 17, 2001 (St. Paul, MN). St. Cloud State defeated North Dakota 6-5 to claim the 2001 WCHA Final Five Championship. Derek Eastman scored the game-winner in overtime after UND scored three goals in the final ten minutes of regulation to force the extra session.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 57-30-11 (.638), with a slight edge of 22-16-6 (.568) in games played at the National Hockey Center in St. Cloud. North Dakota is 6-3-1 (.750) in the last ten contests between the schools. This weekend will mark the 99th and 100th meetings between the two programs.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol is 19-8-6 (.667) in his career against St. Cloud State. Hakstol could join UND’s 200 Victory Club with a win this weekend, joining two others (John “Gino” Gasparini and Dean Blais) as the only coaches to reach that milestone. SCSU freshman goalie Ryan Faragher has made 18 consecutive starts for the Huskies, a run that started with his 4-0 shutout victory in Grand Forks on October 28th. St. Cloud assistant coach Steve Johnson was a four year letterwinner at UND, collecting 191 points in 153 games. He was a finalist for the Hobey Baker award and a first-team All-American as a senior.

The Prediction

The Friday/Saturday trend will continue, with North Dakota falling just short on Friday night before pulling away in Saturday’s rematch. SCSU 4-3, UND 4-2.

On a Personal Note

I look forward to this series every year because of the unique relationship we have with the Center Ice Club, the official hockey booster organization for the St. Cloud State University Huskies. On behalf of SiouxSports.com and the Center Ice Club, I would like to invite you to the UND/SCSU pre-game social on Saturday afternoon from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Legends Bar inside the Holiday Inn in St. Cloud. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of the rivalry, win fabulous door prizes, and view the Challenge Cup. This event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its schedule rotation, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season. St. Cloud State and North Dakota were partnered up in a scheduling system that ended in 2009-10.

Last season, even though the WCHA expanded to 12 teams (adding Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha) and implemented a new rotating schedule, UND and SCSU continue to play four games each season. For a complete look at how the the WCHA schedule works, click here.

And it’s safe to say that as members of the new eight-team National Collegiate Hockey Conference (which begins play in 2013-2014), North Dakota and St. Cloud State will continue to play four regular season games each year.

Over the past eight seasons, the fans have made their mark on the partnership between the schools. The UND/SCSU rivalry has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is awarded to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games. As you may be able to see in the photo above, the winning team is engraved for each year. UND won the Challenge Cup in 2005, going 3-0-1 against the Huskies. St. Cloud took the trophy back in 2006, sporting a record of 3-1-0 against North Dakota. In 2007, the Sioux won two games and tied the other two, collecting six points and the Challenge Cup. The next season, the teams shared the Cup, with UND and SCSU each winning one game and tying the other two. In 2009, North Dakota sprinted to the lead in the Challenge Cup race by winning both games in Grand Forks but needed a Saturday victory in St. Cloud to salvage a split on the weekend and reclaim the Cup. The next season (2009-10), both series were splits, and the Challenge Cup was shared once again.

Last year, North Dakota swept the early December series in Grand Forks and earned a win and a tie at St. Cloud in February, outscoring the Huskies by a combined 15-8.

If you’re keeping track at home, UND has won the Cup four times, St. Cloud has claimed the Cup once, and the schools have shared the Challenge Cup twice. No school has ever swept the four game season series.

In the first two games of this season’s series, the teams split two games at Ralph Engelstad Arena in Grand Forks. The Huskies blanked UND in the opener, 4-0, and North Dakota took the rematch by a final of 3-1. The win kept UND from starting the WCHA season with four consecutive losses for the first time in school history.

The Challenge Cup will be on display at the Center Ice Club pre-game social this Saturday, January 21st from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Legends Bar inside the Holiday Inn (Division Street and 37th Avenue) in St. Cloud. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of this hockey rivalry. There will be complimentary food and door prizes. The event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

Please check back for a complete preview of this weekend’s series. We hope to see you at Saturday’s fan social. Here’s to hockey!