Category: Men’s Hockey

Cornell is one of the few teams in the country scoring at a slower rate than North Dakota. The Big Red have only tallied 12 goals in their first six games, while the Fighting Sioux have a slightly higher average of 28 goals in twelve games.

So why is Cornell still undefeated (4-0-2), while UND finds itself in yet another November funk (4-7-1)?

Goaltending.

Cornell has been a goaltending factory for years, beginning with Ken Dryden and Brian Hayward and continuing through David LeNeveu and David McKee. The next Big Red netminder to join the Hobey Baker race is Cornell junior Ben Scrivens. Scrivens had a terrific sophomore campaign (19-12-3, 2.02 goals-against average, .930 save percentage, 4 shutouts), and he’s followed that up with unfathomable numbers this season.

Scrivens has played every minute for Cornell this year, and here are the statistics:

Four wins, two ties. 0.81 goals-against average. .971 save percentage. 2 shutouts.

Admittedly, I’m a numbers guy, and some people aren’t. But let’s take a look at what those numbers mean…

In this weekend’s two game series, it would be an accomplishment for North Dakota to score two goals. Total. Scrivens is giving up less than one goal per game.

And the save percentage is even more ridiculous. In order to score three goals, the Fighting Sioux would have to put more than 100 shots on net.

The offensive outlook for North Dakota is not great. The Sioux have not scored an even-strength goal in more than 13 periods of hockey. UND’s power play is catching on, but Cornell has only allowed one power play goal all season (in 30 opportunities).

According to North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol, this opponent might be just what the doctor ordered.

“Maybe this is the right challenge at the right time,” Hakstol said. “We’re a team that’s not scoring goals. We’re a team that’s been sporadic on our power play. Cornell probably presents the best challenge possible for us at this point in our year.”

After losing two non-conference games at the Icebreaker Invitational earlier this season, it is imperative that North Dakota picks up wins this weekend and next weekend at Harvard, or UND will be on the outside looking in at the national tournament field.

Cornell Team Profile

National Rankings: #12/#12
Head Coach: Mike Schafer (14th season at Cornell, 258-139-47, .634)
This Season: 4-0-2 Overall, 4-0-2 ECAC (t-2nd)
Team Offense: 2.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 0.83 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 12.8% (5 of 39)
Penalty Kill: 96.7% (29 of 30)
Last Season: 19-14-3 Overall, 12-9-1 ECAC (t-4th)
Key Players: Junior F Colin Greening (2-3-5), Sophomore F Riley Nash (2-1-3), Sophomore D Jordan Berk (1-1-2), Junior G Ben Scrivens (4-0-2, 0.81 GAA, .971 SV, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 110-63-16, .624)
This Season: 4-7-1 Overall, 4-5-1 WCHA (7th)
National Ranking: NR
Team Offense: 2.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.33 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 13.8% (13 of 94)
Penalty Kill: 80.6% (58 of 72)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (4-6-10), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (3-5-8), Senior F/D Brad Miller (3-5-8), Freshman F Brett Hextall (4-2-6), Junior D Chay Genoway (0-8-8), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (4-4-1, 2.85 GAA, .901 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 27, 1997 (Grand Rapids, MI). North Dakota defeated Cornell 5-1 in the opener of the Pepsi Invitational. UND went on to win the holiday tournament, topping Ferris State 6-3 in the championship game.
Most Important Meeting: The Fighting Sioux and Big Red have met three times in the national tournament. Cornell beat UND 1-0 in the 1967 seminfinal, and North Dakota returned the favor in the 1968 semifinal, winning 3-1. UND also defeated Cornell 6-2 in the 1997 national quarterfinals.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 3-1-0 (.750). All four meetings have been on neutral ice.

Game News and Notes

UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in nine consecutive games (including eight starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Karl Goehring, who played in ten straight contests in 1997-98. Cornell junior goaltender Ben Scrivens is following in the footsteps of Big Red netminders LeNevue (2001-03) and McKee (2003-06), both of whom became Hobey Baker finalists. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 30th on the UND career scoring list. Duncan has notched 143 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 25 all-time with three points this weekend. UND has not won a game this season when scoring two or fewer goals (0-6-1).

The Prediction

It does not look good for the green and white. I’m hopeful for a split, but all four lines need to play well for that to happen. Cornell 2-1, UND 2-1.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

Duluth got off to a blistering 3-0-1 start this season in non-conference play, scoring eighteen goals and allowing just nine in a tour of Michigan schools (Lake Superior, Northern Michigan, Western Michigan).

Once the Bulldogs began their WCHA schedule, however, things got noticeably tougher. UMD has won just one of its first seven conference games (1-4-2) and already finds itself near the bottom of the standings.

One thing that is different about this year’s Bulldog team is that the DECC is stacked with players who can score. After notching just 202 points all of last season (36 games), Duluth has tallied 90 points in 11 games this year. Last season’s Bulldogs barely cracked 11% on the power play, while this year’s squad is clipping along at over 18%.

In Grand Forks, this season feels like déjà vu all over again. And it feels like déjà vu all over again. Over the past five years, the Fighting Sioux have struggled in the first two months of the season:

2004-2005 October/November record: 9-5-2 (7-4-1 WCHA)
2005-2006 October/November record: 8-5-1 (4-4-0 WCHA)
2006-2007 October/November record: 7-6-1 (5-4-1 WCHA)
2007-2008 October/November record: 6-5-1 (4-5-0 WCHA)

And again, this season in October and November: 4-6-0 (4-4-0 WCHA)

In Hakstol’s first four seasons as head coach, there is a distinct difference between the opening two months (30-21-5, .580) and the rest of the season (76-35-10, .669).

Here’s my summary: “We’ve played tough teams, we’ve competed well in almost every game, and we can clearly get better in every phase. And that’s reason for optimism, not pessimism, in my book.”

Sound about right? Yes, but I wrote that last year before the Sioux/Bulldog series in Grand Forks. It’s clear that we’ve been down this road before.

The difference this year is we also need to get healthy. Injuries to Joe Finley, Zach Jones, and Chay Genoway have forced other players into expanded roles on the blue line. The Brad Miller-as-defenseman experiment is equal parts exciting and nerve-wracking, and sophomore defensemen Jake Marto (38 career games played) and Derrick Lapoint (41) are adjusting and improving as they play more minutes in key situations.

The one situation that appears settled is the goaltending issue. Freshman Brad Eidsness (4-3-0, 2.98 GAA, .895 SV) is the clear number one after replacing senior Aaron Walski last Friday night against Anchorage. Eidsness stopped 29 of 30 shots on the weekend in about 90 minutes of play. For the weekend, Eidsness went 1-0-0 with a 0.70 GAA and a .967 save percentage and was named WCHA co-Rookie of the Week.

North Dakota has had the better of the results between the two teams recently, going 10-1-1 against Duluth in the past twelve games.

Minnesota-Duluth Team Profile

National Rankings: NR
Head Coach: Scott Sandelin (9th season at UMD, 126-164-40, .442)
This Season: 4-4-3 Overall, 1-4-2 WCHA (t-8th)
Team Offense: 3.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.64 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.6% (16 of 86)
Penalty Kill: 78.1% (50 of 64)
Last Season: 13-17-6 Overall, 9-14-5 WCHA (8th)
Key Players: Senior F MacGregor Sharp (5-7-12), Senior F Nick Kemp (7-7-14), Sophomore F Justin Fontaine (6-7-13), Freshman F Mike Connolly (4-6-10), Senior D Josh Meyers (4-4-8), Junior G Alex Stalock (4-4-3, 2.58 GAA, .901 SV, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 110-62-15, .628)
This Season: 4-6-0 Overall, 4-4-0 WCHA (t-5th)
National Ranking: #20/#15
Team Offense: 2.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 13.2% (10 of 76)
Penalty Kill: 83.1% (49 of 59)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (4-5-9), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (3-4-7), Senior F/D Brad Miller (2-5-7), Freshman F Brett Hextall (4-1-5), Junior D Chay Genoway (0-5-5)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 2, 2008 (Duluth, MN). Chris VandeVelde scored less than a minute into overtime as visiting North Dakota outlasted Minnesota-Duluth, 2-1. The victory pushed UND’s unbeaten streak to 15 games (14-0-1) and secured a second-place finish in the WCHA. The Fighting Sioux won Friday’s series opener, 2-0.
Most Important Meeting: March 22, 1984. Minnesota-Duluth and North Dakota met in an NCAA national semifinal game in Lake Placid, New York. The Bulldogs defeated the Fighting Sioux 2-1 in overtime to advance to the title game. UND went on to defeat Michigan State 6-5 (OT) for third place, while Duluth fell to Bowling Green 5-4 in four overtimes, the longest championship game ever played.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 128-70-8 (.641), including a 54-37-5 (.589) record in Duluth.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota holds a 16-2-1 record against Duluth over the past five seasons. The Bulldogs have been outscored 12-6 in the first period this season, and have a record of 0-3-2 when trailing after the opening twenty minutes. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 30th on the UND career scoring list. Duncan has notched 142 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 25 all-time with a four-point weekend at Duluth. UMD junior netminder Alex Stalock has started 47 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NCAA. Sioux freshman forward Brett Hextall has scored a goal in four straight games; the last North Dakota player to score in five consecutive contests was Rastislav Spirko, who pulled off that feat in 2004-05.

The Prediction

Kozek and Trupp will be itching to get back in the lineup after watching from the stands last Saturday night. North Dakota will catch the Bulldogs by surprise on Friday night, and then rally to tie on Saturday night in a much tighter contest. UND 5-2, 3-3 tie.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

You might not recognize this year’s version of the Alaska-Anchorage Seawolves.

Most of the names (Clark, Crowder, Lunden) are the same, and the jerseys haven’t changed. But after scoring a league-low 1.93 goals per game last season, UAA is buzzing along with a scoring average of 3.1 goals this season. The Seawolves are scorching hot on the power play and have received outstanding goaltending from an unlikely source.

Coming into the season, Anchorage felt comfortable between the pipes with junior Jon Olthuis (6-17-8, 2.90 GAA, .886 SV last season). But it has been the surprising play of sophomore goaltender Bryce Christianson (unbeaten in five games) that has them buzzing up where “you can see Russia from my house”.

North Dakota is struggling to stay healthy on the blue line. Senior Joe Finley and junior Chay Genoway have both missed time (and may not play this weekend), and senior Zach Jones is also playing hurt. The Sioux need steady contributions from sophomores Jake Marto and Derrick Lapoint and freshmen Ben Blood and Corey Fienhage in order to compete during this early stretch of games. Senior forward Brad Miller has played the past two games at defense and is expected to do so for the near future.

The other concern on the blue line is scoring. After leading the nation in points by defensemen last season (thanks to contributions by Taylor Chorney, Robbie Bina, Chay Genoway, and Joe Finley), North Dakota is last in that category this year. Sioux blue liners have collected zero goals and six assists in eight games, and two of those assists came from Brad Miller, a converted forward playing defense at Colorado College last weekend.

Alaska Anchorage Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Shyiak (4th season at UAA, 31-72-16, .328)
This Season: 5-3-2 Overall, 2-2-2 WCHA
National Ranking: NR
Team Offense: 3.10 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.70 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.8% (13 of 57)
Penalty Kill: 79.7% (59 of 74)
Last Season: 7-21-8 Overall, 3-19-6 WCHA (10th)
Key Players: Junior F Kevin Clark (4-7-11), Junior F Paul Crowder (6-7-13), Junior F Josh Lunden (6-4-10), Sophomore G Bryce Christianson (3-0-2, 1.94 GAA, .903 SV)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 109-61-15, .630)
This Season: 3-5-0 Overall, 3-3-0 WCHA
National Ranking: #18
Team Offense: 2.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.88 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 11.7% (7 of 60)
Penalty Kill: 79.2% (38 of 48)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (3-4-7), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (3-3-6), Senior F/D Brad Miller (2-3-5), Senior F Ryan Martens (2-2-4), Freshman F Jason Gregoire (3-1-4)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: January 26, 2008 (Grand Forks, ND). UAA outshot UND 36-13 and carried the play for much of the hockey game, but the Fighting Sioux got great goaltending from Jean-Philippe Lamoureux (35 saves) and won 3-1 to complete the series sweep. North Dakota won Friday’s opener by the same 3-1 score.
Most Important Meeting: March 19, 2004 (St.Paul, MN). The Fighting Sioux and Seawolves met in the semifinal round of the WCHA Final Five, and UND cruised to the championship game with a 4-2 victory.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 36-15-3 (.694). The Fighting Sioux are 23-2-3 (.875) against UAA in games played in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

The Seawolves are converting on over 22 percent of power play opportunities, tops in the WCHA and good for third-best in the nation. Sioux senior forward Ryan Duncan has eleven career points (6 goals, 5 assists) against Anchorage in eight games; no other Sioux player has scored more than three career points against the Seawolves. UND and UAA are tied with Mankato for fifth place in the WCHA standings heading into this weekend’s series. Anchorage is in a stretch of games that includes Mankato, North Dakota, Colorado College, and Wisconsin; eerily similar to UND’s conference schedule thus far: Mankato, Wisconsin, Colorado College, and now Alaska Anchorage.

The Prediction

At full strength, this would be a different series. But that phrase takes on a double meaning due to North Dakota’s injury situation and UAA’s blistering power play. A split is a very likely result, but I’ll give three points to the homestanding Sioux. UND 4-3, 2-2 tie.

As always, thank you for reading. I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

Let me being by saying that Colorado College is a very good team. Despite losing four seniors who saw extensive ice time last season, the Tigers return scoring depth, experience, and a proven goaltender in Richard Bachman. Jack Hillen’s ability to contribute from the blue line (6-31-37) will be missed, as will Jimmy Kilpatrick’s touch around the net (15-16-31). But Scott Owen’s squad is undefeated through eight games and appears to have the right mix of top-end talent and role players to make a deep run in the playoffs.

All that being said, I’m not convinced that Colorado College is the best team in the country. Their five wins have come at home (two victories each against Alabama-Huntsville and Michigan Tech, and a 3-2 victory over Denver), and they have tied three games on the road. Two of those sister-kissers came against Clarkson, a team that the Tigers destroyed twice last season (5-2 and 6-1). The third road tie came against Denver in a home-and-home series.

So is the record a mirage or is it a reflection of how good the Tigers are? The truth is somewhere in the middle, but I expect these games to be closer than the rankings indicate.

Colorado College Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Owens (10th season at CC, 228-121-28, .642)
This Season: 5-0-3 Overall, 3-0-1 WCHA
National Ranking: #1
Team Offense: 2.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 1.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play 11.7% (7 of 60)
Penalty Kill 96.8% (61 of 63)
Last Season: 28-12-1 Overall (NCAA West Regional semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Key Players: Senior F Chad Rau (5-6-11), Senior F Eric Walski (3-5-8), Junior F Bill Sweatt (2-3-5), Junior D Brian Connelly (1-4-5), Junior D Nate Prosser (1-3-4), Sophomore G Richard Bachman (4-0-3, 1.24 GAA, .960 SV, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 108-60-15, .631)
This Season: 2-4-0 Overall, 2-2-0 WCHA
National Ranking: NR
Team Offense: 2.17 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.83 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 10.9% (5 of 46)
Penalty Kill: 78.8% (26 of 33)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (2-2-4), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (2-1-3), Senior F Ryan Martens (2-1-3), Freshman F Jason Gregoire (2-1-3), Junior D Chay Genoway (0-3-3)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 22, 2008 (St. Paul, MN). UND forward T.J. Oshie scored a key goal late in the first period and the Fighting Sioux won 4-2. With the victory, North Dakota captured third place at the WCHA Final Five and secured a #1 seed for the NCAA tournament.
Last Meeting in Colorado Springs: January 6, 2007. Joe Finley broke a 1-1 tie with under five seconds remaining in the second period, and the Fighting Sioux held on for a 2-1 victory. The goal was the first of Finley’s career.
Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1997. UND defeated Colorado College, 6-2, in the Frozen Four Semifinals in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Two nights later, North Dakota downed Boston University, 6-4, to claim its sixth NCAA Championship. North Dakota and Colorado College also met in the 2001 East Regional (Worcester, Mass.), with UND prevailing, 4-1.
All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 127-73-9. CC holds a 54-44-4 record in games played in Colorado Springs. The teams first met in 1948.

Game News and Notes

Colorado College has played in 11 of the last 14 NCAA national tournaments, but has not won a national championship since 1957. The Tigers are outscoring opponents 7-1 in first periods this season. Sioux forward Ryan Duncan has seven career points (4g, 3a) against CC. The senior from Calgary, Alberta has 138 career points and needs five more to pass T.J. Oshie for 30th on North Dakota’s all-time scoring list.

The Prediction

Colorado College plays so well on the big sheet of ice, and North Dakota has struggled to put together a complete game. UND would love a split in this series, but things will need to go their way in the special teams battle for the Fighting Sioux to gain a victory. A tie and a loss is a more likely result. 2-2 tie on Friday, CC 3-1 on Saturday

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments and suggestions.

The last time these two teams played will go down in the annals of Fighting Sioux hockey history as one of those “I remember where I was when….” games. North Dakota survived (yes, survived) the first two periods of hockey against the hometown Badgers in the Midwest Regional Final. UND was lucky to be down only 2-0 (thank you, Lamoureux, and your trusty sidekicks, the pipes). And then the captain did what captains do: they leave it all on the ice. Rylan Kaip netted just his eighth goal of the season at 3:33 of the third (and how perfect is that?), and 47 seconds later, Ryan Duncan took a brilliant pass from T.J. Oshie and tied the game at two. Andrew Kozek completed the UND comeback at 1:47 of the overtime, and North Dakota was headed to Denver.

And when the teams met earlier in the regular season, a line brawl erupted in the third and even the post-game handshake was heated.

So what can we expect this weekend at the Ralph? Both North Dakota (1-3-0, 1-1-0 WCHA) and Wisconsin (0-5-1, 0-3-1 WCHA) are desperately in need of wins, and this series promises to be as hard-fought as they come.

The biggest surprise in Mad-town so far has been goaltending. Let me put it this way: The Badgers have scored an average of three goals per game and have managed only one tie. Senior Shane Connelly has fought the puck in his four starts, posting a goals-against average of 4.45 and a save percentage of only .882. And his counterpart, sophomore Scott Gudmandson, has even less stellar marks of 6.03 GAA and .824 SV.

In the interest of full disclosure, North Dakota netminders Aaron Walski and Brad Eidsness have struggled in the early going as well. Neither has distinguished himself so far, and it’s fair to say that we will see the Friday/Saturday split between the two until one of them gets hot.

Wisconsin Team Profile
Head Coach: Mike Eaves (7th season at UW, 123-100-31 .545)
This Season: 0-5-1 Overall, 0-3-1 WCHA
National Ranking: NR
Team Offense: 3.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 5.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 10.9% (5 of 46)
Penalty Kill: 86.8% (46 of 53)
Last Season: 16-17-7 Overall (NCAA Midwest Regional Finalist), 11-12-5 WCHA (6th)
Key Players: Junior F Michael Davies (1-3-4), Freshman F Jordy Murray (2-2-4), Senior F Ben Street (1-0-1), Sophomore D Ryan McDonagh (2-3-5), Freshman D Jake Gardiner (0-5-5)

North Dakota Team Profile
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 107-59-15, .633)
This Season: 1-3-0 Overall, 1-1-0 WCHA
National Ranking: #18
Team Offense: 2.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 4.00 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 11.8% (4 of 34)
Penalty Kill: 83.3% (20 of 24)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (1-2-3), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (2-0-2), Senior F Ryan Martens (2-1-3), Junior D Chay Genoway (0-2-2)

By The Numbers
Last Meeting: March 30, 2008 (Madison, WI). North Dakota hangs on for the better part of two periods and scores three unanswered goals to defeat the homestanding Badgers and advance to their fourth consecutive Frozen Four.
Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1982. A 2-2 tie after two periods turns into a 5-2 Sioux victory, as Phil Sykes nets a hat trick and leads UND to its fourth National Championship.
All-time Series: Wisconsin leads the all-time series, 80-58-10 (.574).

Game News and Notes
Wisconsin has been outscored 13-5 in third periods this season. The Fighting Sioux have been outstanding in the faceoff circle, winning almost 60% of draws through the first four games. Saturday’s series finale will air nationally on the NHL network. The NHL network will also broadcast the November 28^th tilt between North Dakota and Cornell. The Badgers have won the past four games played at Ralph Engelstad Arena. UND and Wisconsin have played on Halloween just once before (1986), with the Fighting Sioux earning the home victory in spook-tacular fashion, 9-4.

Prediction
UND has improved in each game so far and appear to be healthy up and down the lineup. The Badgers and Sioux look like they could combine for 20 goals this weekend, and whichever squad gets better goaltending will come out on top. I give the edge to North Dakota at home. UND 5-4, 4-4 tie.

In part one of my WCHA season preview, I wrote that Alaska-Anchorage, Michigan Tech, and Minnesota-Duluth are my picks to finish as the bottom three teams in the league and play on the road in the first round of the WCHA playoffs.

In this edition, I will deal with the four teams in the middle of the pack. Last season, St. Cloud State, MSU-Mankato, Wisconsin, and Minnesota occupied fourth through seventh place in the final standings with only three points separating the four teams. This season shapes up to be more of the same, with a number of teams in the mix for an upper division finish.

Here’s how I see the race shaping up….

#7 University of Minnesota Golden Gophers
Last year’s record: 9-12-7 (7th)
Last year’s statistics: 2.29 goals scored/game (7th), 2.50 goals allowed/game (5th)
Key returning players: Junior F Jay Barriball (6-15-21), Sophomore F Mike Hoeffel (9-10-19), Junior F Ryan Stoa (12-12-24 in 2006-07), Senior D R.J. Anderson (5-7-12), Sophomore G Alex Kangas (12-10-9, 1.98 GAA, .930 SV)
Early departures: F Blake Wheeler (15-20-35), D Stu Bickel (1-6-7), G Jeff Frazee (6-7-0, 2.93 GAA, .890 SV)
Key graduation losses: F Ben Gordon (15-14-29), F Mike Howe (7-14-21), F Evan Kaufmann (9-10-19), D Derek Peltier (4-17-21)
The question marks: How will the Gophers handle their tough opening schedule? Will Kangas be able to carry the load again? How will the 12 freshmen adjust to the WCHA?
The bottom line: I don’t think that the Gophers will score more than two goals per game. If incoming freshman Jordan Schroeder (US Under 18) is as good as advertised and redshirt junior Ryan Stoa brings much-needed offensive punch, Minnesota could find itself in the top five.

#6 St. Cloud State University Huskies
Last year’s record: 12-12-4 (4th)
Last year’s statistics: 2.82 goals scored/game (3rd), 2.64 goals allowed/game (6th)
Key returning players: Junior F Ryan Lasch (25-28-53), Sophomore F Garrett Roe (18-27-45), Junior D Garrett Raboin (3-16-19), Junior G Jase Weslosky (16-13-2, 2.12 GAA, .931 SV)
Early departure: F Andreas Nodl (18-26-44)
Key graduation losses: F Nate Dey (10-11-21), F Matt Hartman (7-13-20), D Aaron Brocklehurst (4-18-22), D Matt Stephenson (2-9-11)
The question marks: Where is the leadership on the blue line? The Huskies were in the bottom half of the league last season in goals allowed, and the D corps got younger again this year.
The bottom line: If the officials continue to call the games tighter and the Huskies dominate on the power play like they did last season (22.5 percent), St. Cloud will be in the mix for home ice.

#5 University of Wisconsin Badgers
Last year’s record: 11-12-5 (6th)
Last year’s statistics: 2.43 goals scored/game (6th), 2.43 goals allowed/game (4th)
Key returning players: Senior F Ben Street (13-17-30), Junior F Blake Geffrion (10-20-30), Junior F Michael Davies (13-11-24), Junior D Jamie McBain (5-19-24), Senior G Shane Connelly (15-16-5, 2.44 GAA, .913 SV)
Early departure: F Kyle Turris (11-24-35)
Key graduation losses: D Davis Drewiske (5-16-21), D Kyle Klubertanz (4-16-20)
The question marks: Which underclassmen will step into larger roles and produce on a regular basis?
The bottom line: If the Badgers stay healthy, they are poised to make another playoff run.

#4 Minnesota State University Mankato Mavericks
Last year’s record: 12-12-4 (4th)
Last year’s statistics: 2.54 goals scored/game (5th), 2.68 goals allowed/game (7th)
Key returning players: Senior F Mick Berge (20-6-26), Junior F Trevor Bruess (9-21-30), Sophomore D Kurt Davis (1-14-15), Senior G Mike Zacharias (18-13-4, 2.08 GAA, .924 SV, 5 SO)
Early departure: F Jon Kalinski (8-10-18)
Key graduation losses: F Joel Hanson (9-14-23), D R.J. Linder (1-7-8)
The question marks: Will Trevor Bruess’ decision to turn down a professional contract translate into a deep playoff run for the Mavs?
The bottom line: With this team, the Mavericks should gain home ice and advance to the WCHA Final Five. The only question for this squad is how they will handle the expectations.

Check back for the final installment of my WCHA season preview, in which I predict which teams will finish in the top three spots. As always, I welcome your questions and comments.

Things are turning around in Mankato. The Mavericks appear ready to make a run at the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2003. After posting a 19-16-4 mark last season and barely missing postseason play, Troy Jutting’s team returns plenty of scoring, experience on the blue line, and a solid presence in net.

The off-season was a good one in Mankato. Last season’s leading scorer, Trevor Bruess (30 points in 38 games played), turned down a professional contract to return for his junior season. Of the three seniors on last year’s team, only forward Joel Hanson (9-14-23) and defenseman R.J. Linder (1-7-8) played extensively.

There are more question marks up in Grand Forks. The Fighting Sioux lost defenseman Robbie Bina (2-23-25) and goaltender Jean-Philippe Lamoureux (27-11-4, 1.75 GAA, .932 SV, 6 SO) to graduation along with rugged forwards Rylan Kaip (8-7-15) and Kyle Radke (1-3-4). As expected, T.J. Oshie (18-27-45) turned pro. And another domino fell when defenseman Taylor Chorney (3-21-24) gave up his final season of eligibility.

The good news for North Dakota is that Ryan Duncan, Chris Vandevelde, Andrew Kozek, and Joe Finley all left professional opportunities on the table and came back for another run at a championship.

An 0-2 start has the Sioux faithful wondering what is in store for this year’s team, while a home sweep of Bemidji State has the fans in Mankato excited for the WCHA home opener.

Minnesota State University Mankato Team Profile

Head Coach: Troy Jutting (9^th season at MSUM, 129-145-38, .474)

National Rankings: #15/#15

This Season: 2-0-0, 0-0-0 WCHA

Last Season: 19-16-4, 12-12-4 WCHA (4th)

Key Returning Players (last season‘s statistics): Senior F Mick Berge (20-6-26), Junior F Trevor Bruess (9-21-30), Sophomore D Kurt Davis (1-14-15), Senior G Mike Zacharias (18-13-4, 2.08 GAA, .924 SV, 5 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 106-58-15, .634)

National Ranking: #13/#13

This Season: 0-2-0, 0-0-0 WCHA

Last Season: 28-11-4 (Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)

Key Returning Players (last season‘s statistics): Senior F Ryan Duncan (18-22-40), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (15-17-32), Senior F Andrew Kozek (18-3-21), Junior D Chay Genoway (8-21-29), Senior D Joe Finley (4-11-15)

By The Numbers

Last meeting: January 19, 2008 (Mankato, MN). The Fighting Sioux scored three power play goals and added a shorthanded tally in a 5-3 victory over the Mavericks. Freshman Matt Frattin notched three assists. UND took Friday’s opener 2-1 and went five for twelve with the man-advantage in the two-game series.

All-time record: UND leads the all-time series 28-9-7 (.716), including an 11-3-4 (.722) record in Mankato. Remarkably, 10 of the 44 games played between the two teams have come in the WCHA playoffs, with North Dakota winning eight of those ten games.

Game News and Notes

The last time North Dakota lost to Mankato was in March 2006. The Mavericks’ 2-0 start is their best since opening up the 1998-99 season with six straight victories. UND’s 0-2 start is the first since 1994-95. MSU-M goaltender Mike Zacharias has been in net for 31 consecutive games. Sioux forward Darcy Zajac was the lone UND representative on the Icebreaker All-Tournament team last weekend. Zajac notched an assist and won 23 of 31 faceoffs on the weekend.

The Prediction

North Dakota will not drop to 0-3 on the season. The Fighting Sioux will improve on the power play and penalty kill and take Friday’s opener. The Mavericks will rebound and explode on Saturday. UND 3-2, MSUM 4-1.

North Dakota finds itself in an unfamiliar situation after dropping both games at the Icebreaker (Boston, MA).  Boston University blew out UND 5-1 in the opener, and, despite a better effort in Saturday afternoon’s contest against UMass, the Fighting Sioux lost 3-2 and left Boston with a record of 0-2.

Jim Dahl does a great job of discussing the possible playoff implications of these early season losses, and I encourage you to check out that article here.

I’m going to dive in to some other issues that need to be addressed as we move forward into conference play this weekend….

The first area of focus is goaltending.  The situation is muddier than ever, with neither Eidsness nor Walski distinguishing himself in Boston.  Freshman Brad Eidsness saw more action (33 shots) and allowed five goals (four at even strength and one 4 on 4).  Senior Aaron Walski faced only 16 shots and allowed three goals, all of the goal-mouth/tap-in variety.  Two of Walski’s three goals allowed came while the Sioux were shorthanded.

I would expect Eidsness and Walski to each get a start this weekend at Mankato, and that rotation will continue for the first month or so of the regular season.

A second area of concern is special teams play.  Certainly, the power play hit the skids at the Icebreaker, as UND scored just once in 14 man-advantage situations.  The “new-look” power play that went 3 for 7 against Manitoba in the home opener struggled over the weekend.  I have a feeling that we might see a 2 for 6 or 3 for 7 power-play night before October is over.  The Sioux penalty kill was effective against BU on Friday (the Terriers went 0 for 6), but allowed the Minutemen two goals on four opportunities on Saturday.  And to make matters worse, Boston University scored a four on four goal against North Dakota after UND excelled in that area last season.

In short, games are won and lost with special teams, and the Fighting Sioux need to improve to compete.

I’m excited about the line of Andrew Kozek, Evan Trupp, and Jason Gregoire.  They were noticeably absent from the scoresheet in both games last weekend, but should give opposing teams fits down the road.  Inceidentally, this line was the only line to remain intact from Friday to Saturday.

I’m not sold on Brad Miller with Ryan Duncan and Chris VandeVelde on the top line.  Apparently, neither are the coaches, as Miller was a healthy scratch on Saturday after scoring UND’s lone goal on Friday night.  Brett Hextall moved up to the top line on Saturday. 

Check back later this week for a full preview of UND vs. the MSU-Mankato Mavericks.  As always, I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

As is to be expected, there’s much teeth-gnashing in Sioux fandom about an unusual season-opening two losses.  The most valid concern is what those games revealed about the talent and potential of the team for the rest of the season.  I’ll leave that question to more qualified commentators and the forum denizens (a lot of whom are also more qualified than I).

Instead, I found myself wondering what the actual impact of these two losses would be, all other things being equal, on the PairWise Ranking (PWR) used to seed the NCAA tournament.  College hockey has a pretty long season, which reduces the importance of any individual game, but PWR can make inter-conference matchups unusually important.

Opening 2007-08 with two losses

Remembering that the 2007-08 season began with a win and a tie vs. Michigan St and Boston College, I ran the numbers to see what effect changing those to losses would have on the end-of-season PWR.

Actual PWR	PWR with modified results
Michigan (24)	Michigan (24)
Miami (23)	Miami (23)
North Dakota (22)	New Hampshire (22)
New Hampshire (21)	Colorado College (21)
Colorado College (20)	North Dakota (20)
Boston College (18)	Denver (18)
Denver (18)	Michigan St (18)
St Cloud (17)	Boston College (17)
Michigan St (16)	St Cloud (16)
Clarkson (16)	Clarkson (16)
Minnesota (14)	Minnesota (14)
Wisconsin (11)	Notre Dame (10)
Notre Dame (10)	Mankato (10)
Mankato (10)	Harvard (10)

Those small seeming changes cause the Sioux to lose two more comparisons and drop two spots. (Of course, they also somewhat save face for the selection process by knocking Wisconsin out in favor of Mankato).

A look forward to the 2008-09 PWR

Oct. 14, 2008 updated — Hat tip to NodakVindy for correctly pointing out that the list should include all opponents of BU & Mass.

Given the volatility of PWR itself, it’s pretty hard to predict the effects of two games on PWR at this point.

At a minimum, we know UND will have an additional 0-1 added to its common opponents’ comparison for each opponent of Massachusetts and Boston University (0-2 for opponents of both). That can be particularly important when comparing to out-of-conference teams who won’t have a lot of opponents in common with the Sioux.

Rated from most damage to least, here’s how the weekend’s losses will play into UND’s COP comparisons with teams that have played or will play BU or Massachusetts.

Team	UND’s Scheduled COPs	UND record to date vs. COPs (percent of COP)
American Int’l	1	0-1 (100%)
Vermont	2	0-2 (100%)
Providence	2	0-2 (100%)
Merrimack	2	0-2 (100%)
Mass.-Lowell	5	0-2 (40%)
Holy Cross	3	0-1 (33%)
Harvard	3	0-1 (33%)
Rensselaer	6	0-2 (33%)
St. Lawrence	6	0-2 (33%)
Maine	6	0-2 (33%)
Northeastern	6	0-2 (33%)
Boston University	4	0-1 (25%)
Michigan State	8	0-2 (25%)
Boston College	8	0-2 (25%)
New Hampshire	8	0-2 (25%)
Connecticut	5	0-1 (20%)
Massachusetts	6	0-1 (17%)
Cornell	7	0-1 (14%)
Michigan	10	0-1 (10%)
Bemidji State	13	0-1 (8%)

The losses could also play into UND’s TUC comparisons, if either ends up a TUC, and of course any loss has a small effect on win percentage and RPI.

Bottom Line

It’s quite possible that last weekend’s results will lead to UND losing a comparison or two that it would have won with a split or a sweep. But with 36 scheduled games remaining, the Sioux will have plenty of opportunity to undo that damage. The big open question is certainly the one I opened this article with — what, if anything, did last weekend’s games reveal about the team? Fortunately for us, UND has not announced an intent to forfeit the rest of the season, so we should have 18 more weekends of Sioux hockey to enjoy and find out.

North Dakota and Massachusetts are both looking to rebound from opening-day losses at the Icebreaker Invitational in Boston. UND lost 5-1 to Boston University, while Michigan State University downed the Minutemen 3-1 behind a 36-save performance from Jeff Lerg.

As we have seen in recent years, non-conference results play a critical role in determining the 16-team field for the NCAA tournament. Neither team wants to begin the 2008-09 campaign with two losses.

UMass returns seven of its top ten scorers from a squad that was ranked as high as #5 in the country last season. Despite a large question mark at the goaltending position, the Fighting Sioux expect to be in the mix at the end of the year.

Massachusetts Team Profile

Head Coach: Don “Toot” Cahoon (9th season at UMass, 115-147-28, .445)

National Rankings: -/-

This Season: 0-1-0, 0-0-0 Hockey East

Last Season: 14-16-6, 9-13-5 Hockey East (8th)

Key Returning Players (last season‘s statistics): Sophomore F James Marcou (8-24-32), Senior F Cory Quirk (11-18-29), Senior F Chris Davis (6-17-23), Junior D Justin Braun (4-16-20), Junior D Martin Nolet (2-4-6), Sophomore G Paul Dainton (12-14-6, 2.56 GAA, .911 SV)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 106-57-15, .638)

National Rankings: #5/#4

This Season: 0-1-0, 0-0-0 WCHA

Last Season: 28-11-4 (Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)

Key Returning Players (last season‘s statistics): Senior F Ryan Duncan (18-22-40), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (15-17-32), Senior F Andrew Kozek (18-3-21), Junior D Chay Genoway (8-21-29), Senior D Joe Finley (4-11-15)

Game News and Notes

Saturday’s contest will mark the first ever meeting between these two teams. Massachusetts outshot Michigan State 37-16 on Friday night but lost 3-1; the Minutemen finished 0 for 6 on the power play. Only 3753 fans showed up for Friday’s matchup between UND and BU.

The Prediction

North Dakota will come out flying after Friday’s 5-1 loss to the Terriers. The Minutemen could find some success countering UND’s aggressive style, but the Sioux will prove too much for UMass. UND 3-2.