Category: Men’s Hockey

Everything appears to be rolling for North Dakota right now. The Fighting Sioux dominated the visiting Gophers last weekend (winning 6-3 and 6-1), have won eight of their last ten games, and seem to be in the middle of another second-half surge.

In the last ten games, UND has outscored opponents 32-20 and swept Harvard, St. Cloud State, Bemidji State, and Minnesota. The only two losses in that span were by identical 2-1 scores at the Great Lakes Invitational in Detroit. The opponents? Michigan State (6-13-3 overall) and Michigan Tech (5-17-2).

Michigan Tech has struggled this year after posting two reasonably successful seasons in a row. The Huskies have only one conference win and find themselves squarely in last place in the WCHA.

With a sweep this weekend, North Dakota would improve to 10-5-1 in league play and host Denver (11-4-1 WCHA) next weekend in a pivotal series. The Pioneers are idle this weekend. If UND drops a game to MTU, they will find themselves right back in the middle of a muddled race for home ice.

On the Sioux injury front, senior defenseman Joe Finley is regaining his form after missing most of the first half. There was no word this week on the status of forward Evan Trupp, who was speared in Saturday’s contest against Minnesota but did return to the ice. Senior Andrew Kozek suffered an injury this week and did not make the trip to Houghton, Michigan with the team.

Michigan Tech Team Profile

Head Coach: Jamie Russell (6th season at MTU, 60-129-27, .340)
This Season: 5-17-2 Overall, 1-13-2 WCHA (10th)
National Rankings: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: NR
Team Offense: 1.38 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 3.04 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 8.5% (12 of 142)
Penalty Kill: 79.7% (102 of 128)
Last Season: 14-20-5 Overall, 9-15-4 WCHA (9th)
Key Players: Sophomore F Jordan Baker (9-5-14), Freshman F Brett Olson (4-8-12), Junior D Drew Dobson (0-11-11), Senior D Geoff Kinrade (3-3-6)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 119-66-16, .632)
This Season: 13-10-1 Overall, 8-5-1 WCHA (4th)
National Rankings: #17/NR
PairWise Ranking: 18th
Team Offense: 3.42 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.88 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 19.4% (32 of 165)
Penalty Kill: 84.1% (106 of 126)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (10-8-18), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (8-10-18), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-18-22), Senior F Ryan Martens (9-7-16), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-21-23), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (13-7-1, 2.62 GAA, .908 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 28, 2008 (Detroit, MI). Huskies sophomore forward Jordan Baker scored the game-winner with under six minutes remaining as Michigan Tech defeated North Dakota 2-1 in the consolation game of the Great Lakes Invitational. MTU goaltender Rob Nolan stopped 29 of 30 UND shots in the victory.

Last Meeting in Houghton: October 27, 2007. UND winger T.J. Oshie netted a hat trick and joined the Fighting Sioux century club (100 career points) as North Dakota blanked the homestanding Huskies, 6-0. MTU won Friday’s series opener, 3-1.

Most Important Meeting: The Sioux and Huskies have never met in the NCAA tournament, so I will go with the most important meeting that never was: in 1965, the Sioux lost to Boston College, 4-3, one game short of the national championship game, where they would have faced the Michigan Tech Huskies, who won the second of their three titles by defeating the Eagles. UND settled for third place that season, downing Brown University, 9-5. North Dakota went 13-3-0 in the regular season in 1964-65, with two of those three losses coming at the hands of Michigan Tech.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 133-90-8 (.593), but North Dakota holds only a slight edge (56-55-4) on Michigan Tech‘s home ice. The teams first met in 1948.

Game News and Notes

Michigan Tech has been outscored 25-6 in the first period this season. Four of the Huskies five wins this season have been by one goal. UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in 21 consecutive games (including twnety starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Peter Waselovich, who played in a school-record 32 straight games during UND’s 1973-74 season. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 21st on the UND career scoring list. Duncan has notched 151 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 20 all-time with three more points this season. North Dakota won five of the seven meetings between the teams last year, including two of three in a WCHA First Round playoff series in Grand Forks.

The Prediction

If North Dakota scores early, the Fighting Sioux should score often. Michigan Tech needs to protect a lead to be successful. Look for UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness to pick up his first career shutout this weekend. UND 2-1, 2-0.

Did you know that the PWR table shows you the movement since last week? The little arrow (green, pointing up next to UND) shows you the direction of the move, and the text shows the magnitude. UND climbed 6 spots, from 23 to 17, by sweeping the Gophers.

Wow, who saw that coming? That gave me an idea that I think might be the first really good use of the PWR Predictor. A question I’m certainly asking myself now, and I’m sure I’m not alone, is:

What will UND’s PWR be next Tuesday if UND sweeps Tech? What if Tech sweeps the Sioux?

Well, here we go…

Probability of UND’s PWR as of Jan. 20, based on how it performs vs. Michigan Tech:

UND’s current PWR is 17

Here’s what the chart is telling you UND’s PWR will be:

• UND sweeps: 68% chance it’s between 15 and 17, about a 4% chance its 13 or higher, about a 4% chance it’s 19 or lower
• Split: 75% chance it’s between 19 and 22, about a 1% chance its 16 or higher, about a 2% chance it’s 2 or lower
• Tech sweeps: 50% chance UND falls out of being a TUC, 42% chance it’s between 22 and 25

Future directions

I think the chart above is a good one that is easily understood and conveys interesting information. It (or a refinement of it) is likely to be the first one that I turn into a real product — a web page that automatically updates that anyone can visit to find out this sort of information each week.

Obviously, it would be nice to be able to drill in and find out what else could happen around the league to influence where UND falls in those distributions. E.g., what else has to happen, combined with a UND sweep, for UND to jump to 9th (or fall to 23rd) in the PWR. Figuring out how to make that information accessible to interested parties is definitely something I’ll also add to the to-do list for future features of this product.

I’m still running lots of simulations and making charts, trying to find useful simulations and ways to present the results.

Background

Those wondering where these predictions come from, or interested in other presentations of PWR prediction data, should read the previous blog posts in which I introduced the PWR Predictor:

• More on the PWR predictor
• Swept at the GLI — how harmful to PWR?

North Dakota appears to have found the recipe for success after sweeping the Minnesota Golden Gophers this weekend in Grand Forks. For the second night in a row, the Fighting Sioux played a smart, physical game and got contributions from all four lines. Freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness made some key saves early, and UND chased sophomore Alex Kangas from the net for the second straight night.

Early on, Minnesota played with much more intensity than they had on Friday night. Despite an early Sioux goal by Chris Vandevelde, the Gophers were very much in the hockey game. Eidsness made a couple of key saves to keep Minnesota off the scoreboard, and on the ensuing rush, Duncan scored a fairly soft goal off of Kangas’ glove.

It’s easy to overlook goaltending in a twelve goal weekend, but Eidsness maintained his focus throughout the weekend and is a key reason the Fighting Sioux are poised for another second-half run. The freshman has been in net for all 13 of UND’s victories, and his numbers since becoming the full-time starter are even more impressive. Since replacing Aaron Walksi midway through a November 14th game against Alaska-Anchorage, Eidsness is 10-4-1 with a 2.27 goals against average and a .918 save percentage. Three of his four losses have come by a score of 2-1.

On the other hand, Alex Kangas came into the weekend as the best goaltender in WCHA play. Overall, his record stood at 10-3-5 with a goals-against average of 2.19 and a save percentage of .921. The Fighting Sioux torched the sophomore for 11 goals and raised his GAA to 2.59. For the weekend, Kangas stopped 49 of 60 North Dakota shots he faced.

Looking back on Saturday’s game, it’s difficult to remember that this game was still 2-0 midway through the second period. Andrew Kozek scored a huge third goal with under nine minutes to play in the middle frame, and the rout was on. Within four minutes of Kozek’s goal, freshmen Jason Gregoire and David Toews scored to put the game out of reach and chase Kangas for the second straight night.

Freshmen Jason Gregoire and Brett Hextall were factors all weekend long, playing as wings with Ryan Duncan at center. The two combined for three goals and four assists in the weekend sweep.

UND senior defenseman Joe Finley played his best series since returning from injury. Finley was a force in front of the net and moved the puck effectively while paired with Chay Genoway on the number-one unit.

A key theme all weekend was North Dakota momentum. The Fighting Sioux sustained pressure, had an answer for every Minnesota goal, and never trailed in either game. It was impressive that UND was able to roll all four lines and attack consistently.

In the national picture, UND is still on the outside looking in (#18 in the pairwise), but they are in a much better position than they were two days ago. In the WCHA, the Fighting Sioux are now tied with Minnesota for 4th place in the league, but have played two fewer games than the three teams above them in the standings.

UND travels to Houghton, Michigan for a two-game WCHA series with the Michigan Tech Huskies, a team which defeated the Fighting Sioux 2-1 in the consolation game at the Great Lakes Invitational.

From the Fox Sports Net North postgame show featuring Doug Woog and Frank Mazzacco:

Doug Woog and Frank Mazzacco interviewed Gopher captain Ryan Stoa after last night’s 6-3 Sioux victory. This exchange concerned Ryan Stoa’s crosscheck on Brett Hextall while Hextall was flat on his back in the crease with under two minutes to play..

Woog: “I have a question for you about the end of that game. You got involved in that altercation. What was your mindset? What were you thinking about doing there?”

Stoa: “He…the kid (Brett Hextall) that I went after…I hit him into the goalie, which was my fault, but then he’s been running his mouth all night and coaches said something, and somebody had to step in and do it and I had the opportunity to.”

Woog: “Good for you.”

So much I could say here, but I’ll let it speak for itself.

Last night’s series opener against Minnesota was without question the best, most complete game North Dakota has played this season. The Fighting Sioux dominated throughout and upended the Gophers 6-3.

I’ve always taken issue with the phrase “one team wanted it more”, because I don’t think it is possible to measure “want” or “desire”. But there are certainly things that added up on the Fighting Sioux side of the ledger that translated into a lopsided victory.

Shots and scoring chances: North Dakota could have easily been up by two or more goals in the first period, outshooting Minnesota 18-2 and attempting 40 shots to Minnesota’s 7. Gopher sophomore goaltender Alex Kangas (10-4-5) gave his team a chance to regroup at the first intermission, but to North Dakota’s credit, they did not let first period scoring struggles get in the way of an explosive middle frame. Shot attempts through two periods were 68-25 in favor of the Fighting Sioux.

Special teams play: Minnesota came into the weekend with the WCHA’s best power play and penalty kill, but the Fighting Sioux had the better of all special teams situations. UND’s Evan Trupp tallied a shorthanded marker early in the second period, and less than four minutes later, Trupp assisted on Jason Gregoire’s power play goal and the rout was on. For the game, North Dakota went 1 for 4 with the man advantage, held Minnesota scoreless on three man-advantage opportunities, scored a shorthanded goal, and generated scoring chances while the teams skated four on four. More to the point, the Fighting Sioux generated 10 shots on goal during its 7:40 of power play time and held the Gophers to one shot in six minutes with the man advantage.

Timely scoring: After Minnesota pulled to within one on Ryan Stoa’s first of the game, Ryan Duncan gave the Sioux a two-goal cushion less than four minutes later. After Stoa scored to make it 4-2 with more than 15 minutes remaining in the game, Andrew Kozek relaxed the fans with a goal less than five minutes later. It is key in games like this to continue to dictate play and create offense, and North Dakota never let the Gophers find any momentum last night.

Goaltending: Sioux freshman netminder Brad Eidsness wasn’t tested early, but by the end of the game, he had been tested often. Eidsness stopped 21 of 24 Minnesota shots and collected his twelfth victory of the season. Oftentimes a goaltender can be overlooked in an offensive outburst like this one, but Eidsness is and will continue to be key to North Dakota’s success.

There were some bright spots for Minnesota. Kangas gave them a chance to win early, Ryan Stoa collected two goals and added one assist, and Jordan Schroeder looks like the real deal. Stoa appeared to suffer an injury late in the game, and there are conflicting reports about his availability for tonight’s rematch.

The first half of the White-Out Weekend was a rousing success. Fans are encouraged to wear white to tonight’s series finale. The puck drops at 7:07 p.m. With a victory tonight, North Dakota would pull even with Minnesota in the WCHA standings.

Thank you for reading. For more on the matchup between these teams, click here. For more on this great college hockey rivalry, click here.

When the Sioux and Gophers met in the second half of last season, Minnesota found themselves in sixth place in the WCHA, and North Dakota was riding high in second place. The Sioux were ranked third nationally, while the Gophers were squarely on the bubble for the NCAA tournament. UND took three of four points from the weekend series at Mariucci Arena and rode that momentum all the way to the Frozen Four.

This season, the roles are reversed. Minnesota (10-3-5) comes to town ranked #3 and sitting in second place in the conference. North Dakota (11-10-1) struggled in 2008 and desperately needs wins in the second half to make another tournament run.

All of the statistics point to Gopher domination. Minnesota has lost three games all season, while North Dakota has already posted double-digit losses. The Gophers boast the WCHA’s best goaltender, power play, and penalty kill.

But there are signs that the teams are closer than they may appear. On November 22nd, Minnesota suffered its first loss of the season. Since that game, the Gophers are 3-3-1. In that same span, North Dakota is 7-4-0. In the league standings, a Sioux sweep would put them in a tie with Minnesota.

All that being said, this weekend’s games are critical for league points, momentum, and the all-important Sioux-Gopher rivalry.

Minnesota Team Profile

Head Coach: Don Lucia (10th season at UMN, 249-116-43, .663)
This Season: 10-3-5 Overall, 7-2-3 WCHA (2nd)
National Rankings: #3/#3
PairWise Ranking: 8th
Team Offense: 3.28 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.28 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.9% (23 of 105)
Penalty Kill: 93.2% (96 of 103)
Last Season: 19-17-9 Overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 9-12-7 WCHA (7th)
Key Players: Junior F Ryan Stoa (11-12-23), Freshman F Jordan Schroeder (7-14-21), Junior F Jay Barriball (6-10-16), Sophomore D Cade Fairchild (3-11-14), Sophomore G Alex Kangas (10-3-5, 2.19 GAA, 921 SV%, 1 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 117-66-16, .628)
This Season: 11-10-1 Overall, 6-5-1 WCHA (6th)
National Rankings: NR/NR
PairWise Ranking: 22nd
Team Offense: 3.10 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.95 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.9% (27 of 143)
Penalty Kill: 83.2% (94 of 113)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (7-8-15), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (7-9-16), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-17-21), Senior F Ryan Martens (8-7-15), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-19-21), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (11-7-1, 2.68 GAA, .907 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: February 2, 2008 (Minneapolis, MN). The teams skated to a 1-1 tie after freshman Evan Trupp ended Friday’s opener with a spectacular overtime goal. Emotions ran high in both games, as the teams combined for 192 penalty minutes in the weekend series.
Last Meeting in Grand Forks: December 8, 2007. Minnesota held off a furious North Dakota comeback attempt for a thrilling 4-3 victory. The Fighting Sioux scored twice in the final four minutes to get within one, but Ben Gordon’s goal with two seconds remaining in the second period stood as the game-winner. In Friday’s opener, all six goals were scored in the third period and North Dakota came out on top, 4-2.
Most Important Meeting: March 24, 1979 (Detroit, MI). North Dakota and Minnesota met to decide the national championship, and the Gophers prevailed, 4-3.
All-time Series: Minnesota leads the all-time series, 130-122-12 (.515), but North Dakota holds a 64-53-7 (.544) advantage in games played in Grand Forks.

Game News and Notes

North Dakota’s players and coaches are asking all fans to wear white for this weekend’s games against Minnesota. In an effort to minimize traffic and congestion at the arena, Gopher fans are asked to arrive at 10:37 p.m. UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in nineteen consecutive games (including eighteen starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Peter Waselovich, who played in a school-record 32 straight games during UND’s 1973-74 season. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 23rd on the UND career scoring list. Minnesota forwards Jordan Schroeder and Mike Hoeffel as well as defenseman Cade Fairchild will return to the Gopher lineup this weekend after representing the United States at the World Junior Championships. Duncan has notched 148 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 20 all-time with six more points this season. North Dakota head coach Dave Hakstol will be behind the bench for his 200th game on Friday night. Minnesota head coach Don Lucia will miss this weekend’s games due to an undisclosed illness.

The Prediction

I expect the Gophers to roll in one game and for North Dakota to keep one game close. Special teams play will determine whether the Sioux can win the close game or settle for a tie. Minnesota 5-1, UND 3-2.

Thank you for reading. For reaction to Friday’s game, click here. For more on the rivalry between the Sioux and Gophers, click here.

Which team do you consider North Dakota’s biggest rival?

I have Minnesota at the top of my list, along with Boston College, Denver, Michigan and Wisconsin.

And what makes some rivalries so intense? For some of the above-mentioned schools, it’s conference affiliation. Minnesota, Denver, and Wisconsin are among the top teams battling it out with North Dakota for the WCHA title year after year. Familiarity breeds contempt, they say.

But why else? Why are Boston College and Michigan on my list? And why has Denver become such a bitter feud while Wisconsin, until last year, had cooled a bit? It all boils down to tournament time.

Since 1997, UND has met 13 different teams in NCAA action, and of those thirteen, only four (Michigan, Boston College, Ferris State, and Denver) have ended North Dakota’s season. The Fighting Sioux avenged a loss to Michigan in 1998 with playoff wins in 2006 and 2007, while Denver has had UND’s number, defeating the Sioux in 2004 and 2005. Ferris State bounced North Dakota from the 2003 tournament, and the eight tournament games between Boston College and UND (1999, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008) are well-documented.

The teams UND has defeated in NCAA play in that same span include Cornell (1997), Colorado College (1997, 2001), Boston University (1997, 2005), Niagara (2000), Maine (2000), Michigan State (2001), Holy Cross (2004, 2006), Princeton (2008), and Wisconsin (2008). These rivalries are not as intense as the schools listed above, and it is my opinion that it is because these schools have not ended UND’s season on the biggest stage that they are not regarded as such.

Until last year’s thrilling overtime game to decide the MCAA Midwest Regional Championship, Wisconsin and North Dakota had not met in the national tournament since the 1982 title game.

And that leaves us with Minnesota. The 1979 title game between North Dakota and Minnesota, which Minnesota won 4-3, would set off a 25 year span (1980-2004) during which the two schools would not meet in the NCAA tournament. That’s astounding. During that time, Minnesota advanced to the national tournament 20 times (winning titles in 2002 and 2003), and North Dakota advanced to the national tournament 12 times (winning titles in 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, and 2000), and yet they never played each other.

North Dakota has somewhat atoned for the 1979 title game loss with NCAA victories over Minnesota in 2005 and 2007.

Why, for those 25 years, did the two fan bases continue to circle Sioux/Gopher weekend on their calendars? What was it (or more to the point, what is it) about these two programs that causes every regular season matchup to feel like a playoff game and every WCHA Final Five tilt to feel like the Super Bowl? And that’s saying nothing about my heart rate during overtime of the 2007 West Regional Final or the 2005 Frozen Four Semifinal.

Here are some fan’s opinions on both sides of the Sioux/Gopher rivalry:

“Proximity. UM is the closest elite team to UND. Going to games in Grand Forks, you would see tons of Gopher fans, and that always makes for a heated atmosphere.” OETKB

“I hate the way (North Dakota) steals all of our home grown talent.” Go4er

“(The Gophers) always get the night games at the Final Five – that makes lots of UND fans angry.” dj_hoime

“From the maroon and gold side of things – I’ve come to love the intensity of this rivalry and put this matchup at the top of all rivalries in college sports today.” hoop

And one that sums up what all of us are thinking:

“It comes down to one thing at the end of the day – the scoreboard. Is it 7:30 yet?” Go4er

What do you think? I’d like to hear your thoughts. Your stories. Your memories of the Sioux/Gopher rivalry. Please leave comments about your favorite games and ones you’d like to forget. It’s your turn. It’s your time. It’s Sioux/Gopher week.

Thank you for reading. Click here for a preview of this weekend’s games. Check back after the games for reaction and commentary.

Last week’s post, Swept at the GLI — how harmful to PWR?, introduced the idea of simulating the remaining season to predict the PWR and led to a lot of speculation about exactly what it would take for the Sioux to reach the NCAA tournament.

I’ll start with that last point — in simulations that have UND reach the top 12 in PWR, UND wins about 75% of its 16 remaining regular season games.  That winning 75% of remaining games could land UND in the tournament is notably less pessimistic than most of the non-data based speculation I’ve seen, so wanted to get that out there.  Further, the WCHA tournament could add up to 6 additional games to UND’s pre-NCAA tournament schedule, giving UND additional opportunities to climb in the PWR.  In short, it’s very possible for UND to make the NCAA tournament with a reasonable run of good performance.

This stuff is very new and I’m still trying to figure out how to make it more usable and accessible to non-stats geeks, so if that’s you, jump to “What’s next” for a preview of those efforts.

Now it gets a little denser…

In noting last week that each weekend’s pair of games would knock out 3/4 of the remaining possible outcomes, I was concerned that the potential outcomes eliminated would be so biased as to make this exercise somewhat useless.  That is, I wondered if a sweep would remove 3/4 of the bad outcomes, increasing the probability of good outcomes by 4x.  A tool that predicted a 10% chance of a certain PWR before playing Bemidji St and a 40% chance of that same PWR after a sweep would be useless indeed.  Fortunately, that wasn’t the case.

The predicted PWR outcomes based on Bradley/Terry (KRACH)-determined game outcomes made only a minor shift, as intuitively follows UND’s predicted 60% chance of winning each game.

A quick note on how to use KRACH to predict game outcomes: going into the Gopher series, UND’s KRACH is 100 vs UMN’s 252 (other sites may have other numbers, but the ratio should be about 1:2.5).  Therefore, UMN stands a 2.5x greater chance than UND of winning each game.  Restated, if they perform as they have to date, UND is predicted to have about a 28% chance of winning each game.  These games are the least likely remaining wins on UND’s schedule, so wins this weekend would definitely shift the remaining possibilities and give us some very useful insight into this tool.  So, let’s see ’em boys 🙂

What’s next?

I already noted that in simulations in which UND reaches top 12 in PWR, UND wins about 75% of its 16 remaining regular season games. However, what I think people really want to know is: What is the likelihood of UND making the tournament if its wins 75% of its remaining games?  (or 50%, or 90%?)

I think that will be the most useful way to look at these results — probability distributions of likely PWRs given a particular winning percentage.  e.g. a graph that shows that if UND wins 75% of its remaining games, it stands a 10% chance of being ranked 11, an 11.3% chance of being ranked 12, etc…

It’s been a tale of two seasons for both of these teams.

Bemidji State began the season as road warriors and stumbled to a 1-6-0 record while allowing 4.5 goals per game. Since then, the Beavers have won seven of nine games and have tightened up defensively, only allowing 1.66 goals/game in that span.

North Dakota’s success has coincided with the elevated play of Brad Eidsness. The freshman netminder is 6-4-1 with a 2.19 goals-against average and .925 save percentage in his last 12 games, although the Fighting Sioux are still stinging from a pair of 2-1 losses (to Michigan State and Michigan Tech) at last weekend’s Great Lakes Invitational.

UND’s 3-5-0 mark in non-conference play has many wondering how much of a second-half surge it will take for North Dakota to make their seventh straight NCAA tournament appearance. It is entirely possible that the Fighting Sioux will have to win the WCHA Final Five to advance to the national tournament.

Special teams will be key in this weekend’s home and home series. Both teams boast potent power plays (BSU 15.9%, UND 18.9%) and mediocre penalty killing units (BSU 84.0%, UND 83.2%). The difference has been the number of opportunities each team has earned this season. The Beavers have a minus-12 disparity in special teams situations (88 power plays, 100 penalty kills), while the Fighting Sioux have been plus-30 (143 power plays, 113 penalty kills). Whichever team comes out ahead in the special teams battle has a decided edge this weekend.

Bemidji State Team Profile

Head Coach: Tom Serratore (8th season at BSU, 128-110-28, .534)
This Season: 8-8-0 Overall, 4-2-0 CHA (1st)
National Rankings: NR/NR
Team Offense: 2.44 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.94 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 15.9% (14 of 88)
Penalty Kill: 84.0% (84 of 100)
Last Season: 17-16-3 Overall, 13-4-3 CHA (1st)
Key Players: Sophomore F Matt Read (5-8-13), Senior F Brandon Marino (3-8-11), Senior F Tyler Scofield (6-4-10), Freshman F Brad Hunt (3-8-11), Senior F Cody Bostock (3-6-9), Sophomore G Matt Dalton (8-5-0, .906 SV%, 2.47 GAA)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (5th season at UND, 115-66-16, .624)
This Season: 9-10-1 Overall, 6-5-1 WCHA (9th)
National Ranking: #18/NR
Team Offense: 3.10 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.95 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 18.9% (27 of 143)
Penalty Kill: 83.2% (94 of 113)
Last Season: 28-11-4 Overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 18-7-3 WCHA (2nd)
Key Players: Senior F Ryan Duncan (7-8-15), Junior F Chris VandeVelde (4-8-12), Senior F/D Brad Miller (4-15-19), Senior F Ryan Martens (7-7-14), Junior D Chay Genoway (2-17-19), Freshman G Brad Eidsness (9-7-1, 2.64 GAA, .910 SV)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: February 24th, 2008 (Grand Forks, ND). UND backup goalie Aaron Walski earned a shutout (13 saves) in his first career start and T.J. Oshie made a brilliant play behind the net to feed Andrew Kozek’s game-winner with under five minutes to play as North Dakota prevailed 1-0 to complete the weekend sweep of the visiting Beavers. Bemidji State backup goaltender Orlando Alamano made 31 saves in a losing effort.
Last Meeting in Bemidji: January 19, 2007. North Dakota saw its two-goal lead evaporate early in the third period, but Erik Fabian notched the game-winner with under four minutes to play as the Fighting Sioux downed the homestanding Beavers 3-2.
Most Important Meeting: I’ll give the nod to February 7, 1970 (Grand Forks, ND). Bemidji outgunned North Dakota 7-5 to claim its only victory in the all-time series. The Sioux and Beavers have never met in post-season action of any kind.
All-time Series: The Fighting Sioux have dominated the all-time series, going 13-1-1 (.900) against the Beavers. UND has won every game played in Bemidji (4-0-0) and has not lost a game to Bemidji State since the Beavers moved up to Division I (12-0-1).

Game News and Notes

UND freshman goaltender Brad Eidsness has appeared in seventeen consecutive games (including sixteen starts). The last freshman netminder to appear in a longer stretch of games was Aaron Schweitzer, who played in the last 18 games of UND’s 1996-97 championship campaign. Sophomore goaltender Matt Dalton (8-5-0) is expected to start tonight’s opener for Bemidji State, with senior goaltender Orlando Alamano (0-3-0) getting the nod on Saturday. North Dakota senior forward Ryan Duncan is currently 23rd on the UND career scoring list. Duncan has notched 148 points in his Sioux career and would move into the top 20 all-time with six more points this season. Bemidji State senior captain Travis Winter (76 career points in 106 games) will return to the lineup this weekend after being sidelined for much of the first half with a groin injury. Only six current Sioux players (Ryan Duncan, Andrew Kozek, Derrick LaPoint, Brad Miller, Chris VandeVelde, and Matt Watkins) have notched points against Bemidji State.

The Prediction

Despite UND’s dominance in the series, recent games between the Sioux and Beavers have been tightly contested and evenly matched. If Bemidji gets up by a couple of goals at home, it could be lights out for North Dakota’s sputtering offense. Look for UND to take three points this weekend. 2-2 Tie, UND 3-2.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

People who follow the PWR (PairWise Rankings) now know intuitively that getting swept at the GLI was particularly harmful to UND’s PWR (and NCAA tournament) chances, but for the first time ever anywhere, we can try to quantify how harmful.

The surprising bottom line — UND’s chances of getting a top 15 ranking in the PWR are now only about 1/3 to 1/4 what they would have been if UND had instead swept this tournament.

Without further ado, as simulated by the new PairWise Ranking Predictor, here are the distributions of UNDs PWR chances with the actual outcome of the Great Lakes Invitational vs if UND had swept.

Using KRACH to predict the outcomes of unfinished games, UND now stands under a 5% chance of ending the regular season in the top 15 of the PWR.  Had UND swept the GLI, the Sioux would have instead stood over a 20% chance.

A few words about the chart — the horizontal axis is the desired PWR ranking (1 good, 25 bad), the vertical axis is the cumulative probability of achieving the corresponding PWR ranking, the green line represents UND’s actual chances as of today, the blue line what UND’s chances would have been with a sweep.  Note that the KRACH probabilities used to predict the outcomes of remaining games are the same for both — the current KRACH ratings that incorporate being swept.

But wait, Jim, you say… using KRACH to predict the probabilities just extends how teams have performed to date through the end of the season.  The mid-season KRACH last year would have also predicted doom and gloom for the Sioux.  While that’s true, I’m using these predictions to point out how much the differential, how much the sweep hurt, not the actual levels (e.g. 5% chance of finishing top 15).  Nonetheless, another interesting way to look at it is what proportion of the possible remaining outcomes land the Sioux in each PWR ranking.  That can be somewhat answered with a similar simulation that makes the outcomes of each game random (50% win, 50% lose) rather than with probabilities determined by KRACH.

Though a random draw looks better for the Sioux than the KRACH predictions, UND’s chances of a top 15 PWR were harmed even more from comprising 50% of possible remaining scenarios to 15%.  Note further that the number of potential outcomes that even land the Sioux as a TUC fell from nearly 80% to 50%.

A few extra notes for the geeks — the simulations were Monte Carlos with 1,000,000 trials per scenario.  While I didn’t do formal sensitivity analysis, a few runs of one demonstrated that results for each potential ranking were generally within .001%, so I’m pretty happy with 1,000,000 trials.