Category: Men’s Hockey

It’s that time of year, the season is winding down, and the number of remaining possible outcomes is declining dramatically, such that the PWR is becoming much more predictable. PWR aficionados know that in coming weeks the “You are the Committee” calculators (which allow you to punch in game outcomes and give you back the resultant PWR) will be coming online, so keep an eye out for those.

Last year I assumed this column would quite serving a purpose at that point, but quickly realized that the simulator is actually pretty good at finding the most extreme cases (e.g. UND could still finish #3 with this set of highly improbably outcomes), so this probably isn’t the end of these posts quite yet…

On to business…

Review last week

UND is #6 in PWR having one two. Referring to last week’s forecast, another solid hit.

The main event

This forecast has, by far, the tallest spikes of the season. PWR isn’t moving much this weekend.

How can UND end the weekend at #4

A bonus section… I analyzed those outcomes in which UND ends the weekend as #4, and hence would be slotted as a #1 seed. The following game outcomes were present in every such scenario. For the economists out there, these are necessary but not sufficient conditions (i.e. these outcomes alone won’t guarantee a #4 ranking, but the absence of these outcomes pretty much guarantees UND won’t have a #4 ranking):

UND must sweep Tech
Mankato needs at least 1 point vs SCSU
UNH needs at least 1 point vs BC

Other games to watch

These outcomes seem to help the Sioux in the widest variety of scenarios (that is, not just those in which UND sweeps and is fighting for a #4 ranking):

Mankato sweeping SCSU
Denver sweeping CC
Maine sweeping Mass
Alabama-Huntsville sweeping Bemidji St
UNH sweeping BC

I won’t try to figure out why each of those games matters here, but such discussions often crop up in the PWR Rankings forum thread

In most seasons during the Hakstol era, there is a midpoint (typically around the start of the new year) when his Fighting Sioux squad begins to get on a roll and pile up wins.

No one knew what to make of this season’s 7-1-1 start, a stretch during which UND was outscoring opponents 3.67-1.56 goals per game.

Everyone knows what happened to Chay Genoway on Friday the 13th of November, 2009. For the sake of this article, we’ll call that midpoint #1. Over the next nine games (up until January 1st and an interesting comparison to the nine games Genoway was in the lineup), UND struggled to a 2-5-2 mark, losing all five games by one goal and playing dead even hockey, scoring 25 goals and allowing 25 goals.

January 1, 2010. Midpoint #2. Since the calendar turned, North Dakota is 7-5-2 and is outscoring opponents 3.07-2.21 goals per game. Most importantly, Brett Hextall’s return has reignited the power play and UND has rattled off three straight victories, outscoring St. Cloud State and Minnesota-Duluth 18-4.

The biggest differences over the past 14 games have been solid defensive play and the goaltending of Brad Eidsness. A comfort level has developed on the back end which allows some of the more offensive-minded blueliners (Derrick Lapoint, Jake Marto, and Ben Blood) to play more effectively in the attacking zone.

Colorado College and North Dakota come into the weekend tied for 5th place in the WCHA, and this weekend’s action might well determine who claims the fifth and final home ice spot in the first round of the league playoffs.

Colorado College Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Owens (11th season at CC, 256-145-38, .626)
National Rankings: #13/#12
PairWise Ranking: 17th
This Season: 17-12-3 Overall, 11-10-3 WCHA (t-5th)
Last Season: 16-12-10 Overall, 12-9-7 WCHA (t-3rd)
Team Offense: 3.34 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.78 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.9% (41 of 179)
Penalty Kill: 82.6% (123 of 149)
Key Players: Senior F Bill Sweatt (14-15-29), Senior F Mike Testwuide (18-9-27), Freshman F Rylan Schwartz (6-20-26), Senior D Nate Prosser (3-21-24), Freshman G Joe Howe (15-11-3, 2.74 GAA, .908 SV%, 3 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 146-82-24, .627)
National Ranking: #8/#8
PairWise Ranking: 8th
This Season: 16-11-5, 11-10-3 WCHA (t-5th)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.16 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.19 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 21.0% (37 of 176)
Penalty Kill: 86.6% (142 of 164)
Key Players: Sophomore F Jason Gregoire (15-12-27), Senior F Chris VandeVelde (12-18-30), Freshman F Danny Kristo (10-15-25), Junior F Evan Trupp (5-19-24), Junior D Derrick LaPoint (2-12-14), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (15-8-4, 2.22 GAA, .909 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: March 1, 2009 (Grand Forks, ND). North Dakota moved into first place in the WCHA with a thrilling 4-3 overtime victory over the visiting Tigers. The Fighting Sioux killed 1:50 of penalty time in the extra frame before Darcy Zajac netted the game winner with 90 seconds remaining. UND and CC battled to a 4-4 tie in Friday’s opener.

Last Meeting in Colorado Springs: November 8, 2008. Tiger forward Eric Walsky scored four goals as CC upended visiting North Dakota 7-4. UND won the series opener 3-1 a night earlier.

Most Important Meeting: March 27, 1997. UND defeated Colorado College, 6-2, in the Frozen Four Semifinals in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Two nights later, North Dakota downed Boston University, 6-4, to claim its sixth NCAA Championship. North Dakota and Colorado College also met in the 2001 East Regional (Worcester, Mass.), with UND prevailing, 4-1.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 132-75-10 (.631), although the Tigers hold a 55-45-4 (.548) edge in games played in Colorado Springs. The teams first met in 1948.

Last Ten: North Dakota is 6-3-1 (.650) in the last ten meetings between the teams.

Game News and Notes

Colorado College has not lost this season when leading after one period of play (10-0-2), and have won only twice when trailing after the opening twenty minutes (2-9-0). The WCHA honored a pair of North Dakota sophomores after last weekend, as forward Brett Hextall (four points) and goaltender Brad Eidsness (53 saves on 56 shots) were named Offensive and Defensive players of the week. UND’s power play converts at 26.6 percent when Brett Hextall is in the lineup and just 6.5 percent when he does not play.

The Prediction

This series has split written all over it, but if North Dakota continues to score at a breakneck pace, they could squeeze three points out of the weekend. Friday’s first period is key for both teams, and will forecast how the rest of the weekend will play out. North Dakota 4-2, Colorado College 4-3.

Thank you for reading. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

Review of last week’s forecast

The Feb. 22 forecast predicted that with a sweep the Sioux would most likely be 7th or 8th (a 25-30% chance of each). The Sioux are currently #8 in PWR.

Look at next week

This is actually a pretty interesting chart. The split and sweep scenarios have very tall spikes, meaning there’s a pretty narrow range in which UND is likely to fall in those scenarios. If UND gets swept, however, the Sioux are just as likely to be #10 as #16 — it really depends what else happens around the league.

Games to watch

Here are the non-Sioux games that could have the most influence on UND’s PWR after this weekend. The very different shapes of the UND PWR curves this week might affect how you interpret this list — since there is much higher variance on the swept curve, games that most affect the Sioux if UND gets swept probably dominate this list.

AA over Alaska (sweep helps 1.6, split 1.16)
Princeton/Quinnipiac over Yale (sweep helps .99, one win .54)
Merrimack over Maine (sweep helps .79)
Northeastern over UNH (sweep helps .55)

Two week (end of regular season) forecast

With only four games remaining in the regular season, this forecast demonstrates just how volatile PWR is. UND stands a modest chance (~5%) of finishing the regular season with a 1-seed PWR ranking (#3 or #4) with two sweeps. On the back side, getting swept out would almost certainly knock UND out of the field, with only a ~5% chance of finishing #16 or higher.

More likely scenarios lead to more middling outcomes, though winning 2 or more leaves UND quite likely to be in the tournament field as of the end of the regular season. Then, of course, the WCHA tournament should provide similar opportunity to rise or fall.

Though these days we usually focus on the PairWise rankings, because they determine who makes the NCAA tournament, SiouxSports.com’s toolset was actually originally launched with a surprisingly complicated program that calculate the possible final WCHA standings.

As the Sioux are in the somewhat unusual position of fighting for home ice in the conference tournament and worried about making the NCAA tournament, it felt like time to dust it off. Here’s how the WCHA race looks as of today.

If North Dakota has an edge in this series, it’s this: the last time Duluth traveled to Ralph Engelstad Arena to take on the Fighting Sioux was November 24, 2007. The Bulldogs have 15 players on the roster who have never played in Grand Forks.

The Bulldogs have hit a bit of a rough patch lately, winning just twice in their last six games. UMD was swept in a home-and-home with Bemidji State and posted consecutive splits against Wisconsin and Michigan Tech. Duluth was idle last weekend.

North Dakota is coming off of its best 120 minute performance of the season. Despite splitting with the Huskies in St. Cloud, UND carried the play offensively and physically throughout the weekend. If the Green and White hope to improve their position for the NCAAs, they will need to play that brand of hockey from here on out.

Minnesota-Duluth Team Profile

Head Coach: Scott Sandelin (10th season at UMD, 162-184-46, .472)
This Season:  18-11-1 Overall, 14-7-1 WCHA (t-3rd)
National Rankings: #6/#6
PairWise Ranking: t-9th
Team Offense: 3.33 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.70 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.2% (41 of 185)
Penalty Kill: 80.4% (127 of 158)
Last Season: 22-13-8 Overall (NCAA West Regional Finalist), 10-11-7 WCHA
Key Players: Sophomore F Jack Connolly (16-23-39), Junior F Justin Fontaine (17-19-36), Junior F Rob Bordson (8-26-34), Sophomore F Mike Connolly (11-20-31), Sophomore D Brady Lamb (8-7-15), Junior G Kenny Reiter (10-6-0, 2.22 GAA, .917 SV%, 2 SO)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (6th season at UND, 144-82-24, .624)
National Ranking: #11/#11
PairWise Ranking: t-13th
This Season: 14-11-5, 9-10-3 WCHA (6th)
Last Season: 24-15-4 overall (NCAA Northeast Regional semifinalist), 17-7-4 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.03 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.23 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 20.9% (34 of 163)
Penalty Kill: 86.3% (132 of 153)
Key Players: Sophomore F Jason Gregoire (13-11-24), Senior F Chris VandeVelde (11-16-27), Freshman F Danny Kristo (9-14-23), Junior F Evan Trupp (5-18-23), Junior D Derrick LaPoint (2-11-13), Sophomore G Brad Eidsness (13-8-4, 2.28 GAA, .905 SV%, 1 SO)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: December 5, 2009 (Duluth, MN). The Bulldogs got a controversial tying goal from Travis Oleksuk with just over thirty seconds remaining in regulation to force overtime, and completed the comeback just 12 seconds into the extra session to defeat North Dakota 3-2. The Fighting Sioux won Friday’s opener, 4-2.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: November 24, 2007. After defeating Duluth 8-3 on Friday night, UMD’s Drew Akins scored an improbable 80 foot goal for the game winner on Saturday. It was Duluth’s first win in Grand Forks in eleven attempts.

Most Important Meeting: March 22, 1984 (Lake Placid, NY) Minnesota-Duluth and North Dakota met in the national semifinal game, with the Bulldogs defeating the Fighting Sioux 2-1 in overtime to advance to the championship. UND went on to defeat Michigan State 6-5 (OT) for third place, while Duluth fell to Bowling Green 5-4 in four overtimes, the longest championship game ever played.

All-time Series: UND leads the all-time series, 126-70-8 (.637), including a 72-30-2 (.702) record in games played in Grand Forks

Last Ten: North Dakota is 5-4-1 (.550) in the last ten games between the teams.

Game News and Notes

Sioux forwards Chris Vandevelde and Corban Knight were honored by the WCHA for their play last weekend against St. Cloud State. Vandevelde notched two goals and four assists on the weekend and was named co-offensive player of the week, and Knight earned Rookie of the Week honors for his four point effort (one goal, three assists). The Bulldogs have three of the top ten scorers in the league in Connolly, Fontaine, and Bordson. UND will be celebrating the tenth anniversary of its 2000 championship on Saturday night. Members of that team will be available for autographs and Saturday’s game program will feature a pull-out poster of the team.

The Prediction

If North Dakota can put together more series like last weekend’s games in St. Cloud, the wins will start to pile up. I’m not ready to give the Sioux a home sweep just yet, but it’s not out of the question. UND 3-2, 3-3 tie.

Thank you for reading. I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions.

Look back at last week’s forecast

Looking back at the PWR forecast for Feb. 15, the Sioux split and landed right in the meaty part of the prediction for a split, a drop of 2 places to #13 in today’s PWR.

Prediction of UND’s PWR after this weekend

After the excitement of last week’s forecast, in which UND’s PWR was unnaturally high such that a split made a fall in ranking very likely, this week’s forecast is a bit more boring. In fact, it looks a lot like last week’s. From #13, UND is likely to rise a couple spots with a sweep, fall a couple spots getting swept, and stay about where they are if they split.

Games to watch

Minnesota over Colorado College (sweep helps UND 1.2)
Mass.-Lowell over Maine (sweep helps UND 1.1, single win helps .76)
Miami over Nebraska-Omaha (sweep helps UND .87)
Vermont over New Hampshire (sweep helps UND .84)
Merrimack over Massachusetts (sweep helps UND .78, single win helps .63)
St. Lawrence/Clarkson over Yale (sweep helps UND .78, single win helps .61)

Look ahead to end of regular season

UND remains in the driver’s seat. To finish the regular season in a tournament-likely position (e.g. #13 in PWR or better) would require winning 4 of the remaining 6.

Look back at last week’s forecast
Things went about as well for UND as possible during the bye week, with almost every game going as last week’s forecast predicted best for the Sioux.  That landed UND at #11 in the PairWise Rankings today.

Prediction of UND’s PWR after this weekend
If you think of UND as the near the top of its natural range, for how it’s done to date, most of the outcomes are downhill from here.  A climb is possible with a split, but only about a 5% chance.  A sweep would let UND climb in about 75% of possible outcomes (to as high as 6 or 7 in about 9% of scenarios in which UND sweeps).

Games to Watch

As usual, the ranges in which UND’s PWR could land are pretty broad, even for each fixed UND outcome.  Lots of non-UND games can have a pretty big effect on UND’s PWR.  These are the most important non-UND games of the week:

Merrimack over Vermont (win two +1.2, win one +.24)
Northeastern over Massachusetts (win two +1.2, win one +.60)
Boston Univ over Maine (win two +.84, win one +.35)
Lake Superior over Ferris St (win two +.74, win one +.42)
Mankato over Wisconsin (win two +.66, win one +.15)

While explaining why each of those is important is a bit beyond the scope of this post, PWR enthusiasts can study UND’s PWR Details to try to figure it out.

First look at end of season
With only 8 games remaining in the regular season, it’s a good time to take a first look beyond the upcoming weekend to see where UND could end the regular season in PWR.

A #1 seed is still possible, but will take a good streak from the Sioux. Remaining a TUC is almost a certainty, unless the Sioux really slump. To feel pretty confident about making the NCAA tournament requires winning 6 of the remaining 8 before going into the WCHA tournament. However, a good WCHA tournament showing or a little bit of luck, and the Sioux could make the NCAA tournament after winning as little as 3 of the next 8.

Beginning with the 2002-03 season, the WCHA changed its schedule rotation, creating “rivals” which would play each other four times each season. St. Cloud State and North Dakota were partnered up in a scheduling system that ends after this year.

Next season, even though the WCHA expands to 12 teams (adding Bemidji State and Nebraska-Omaha) and implements a new rotating schedule, UND and SCSU will continue to play four games each year. For a complete look at the new WCHA schedule, click here.

Over the past eight seasons, the fans have made their mark on the partnership between the schools. The UND/SCSU rivalry has a commemorative fan trophy, thanks to the Center Ice Club at St. Cloud State University:

The UND/SCSU Challenge Cup is awarded to the team which collects more points in the four regular-season games. As you may be able to see in the photo above, the winning team is engraved for each year. UND won the Challenge Cup in 2005, going 3-0-1 against the Huskies. St. Cloud took the trophy back in 2006, sporting a record of 3-1-0 against North Dakota. In 2007, the Sioux won two games and tied the other two, collecting six points and the Challenge Cup. The next season, the teams shared the Cup, with UND and SCSU each winning one game and tying the other two. And last year, North Dakota sprinted to the lead in the Challenge Cup race by winning both games in Grand Forks but needed a Saturday victory in St. Cloud to salvage a split on the weekend and reclaim the Cup.

Earlier this season, the teams split a weekend series in Grand Forks, so the Cup is on the line this weekend in St. Cloud.

The Challenge Cup will be on display at the Center Ice Club pre-game social this Saturday, February 13th from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. at Legends Bar inside the Holiday Inn (Division Street and 37th Avenue) in St. Cloud. This is a great opportunity to meet fans on both sides of this hockey rivalry. There will be complimentary food and door prizes. The event is free and open to all fans 21 and older.

Check back later this week for a complete preview of this weekend’s series. As always, I welcome your questions, comments, and suggestions.

Checked out the New PWR Details post and can’t make heads or tails of it?

No worries, for those who don’t want to dig into the numbers themselves, but just want to know what’s going to happen — I’ve got the PWR forecaster back up and running. A brief explanation of the technology is at the end of the article.

This is actually a very fun week to first post it, in that the Sioux don’t play. So, you’re getting to see the pure effects of other teams’ games on UND’s PairWise ranking.

Games to watch

Northern Michigan over Ferris St (sweep helps UND about 1.3, single win not much at all)
Alaska over Michigan St (sweep helps UND about 1.2, single win not much)
Wisconsin over Michigan (single win helps UND about 1.2)

Denver/CC over Mercyhurst/Air Force (UND is an average of 1.4 higher if Mercyhurst is swept, 1.5 higher if Air Force is swept, 2.1 lower if Denver is swept, .4 lower if CC is swept)

Looking at UND’s PWR details, a few of these are obvious. UND can take the comparison to Ferris by flipping RPI (even though TUC is about to come into play and currently favors Ferris). Similar story for Michigan St. UND already has the RPI comparison for Michigan so TUC or COP must be up for grabs.

CC/Denver are interesting and less immediately obvious — UND’s 0-7 deficit vs. Denver is insurmountable, so this one isn’t about the direct comparison between UND and Denver. So, there’s some secondary effect there (which interestingly correlates with the common theory of the importance of interconference records. :shrug: )

Brief explanation of the simulator

The PWR forecaster simulates the remainder of the season millions of times, with random outcomes for each game (the probability of each team winning a given game isn’t 50-50, but instead determined by their relative strength as measured by KRACH).

For each set of outcomes, the PairWise Ranking is recalculated and tallied. Those tallies are then used to determine probabilities for particular outcomes, e.g. in 1/5 of outcomes UND is ranked #10 in PWR and in 1/2 of outcomes UND is ranked #11 in PWR, and so forth.