Category: Men’s Hockey

Well, here it is.  My annual crack at predicting the order of finish in the WCHA.  Last season, I had my hits and misses, with Nebraska-Omaha (up six spots from my prediction), Alaska-Anchorage (up three spots), and St. Cloud State (down seven spots) the three teams that surprised me the most.

Here’s a reminder of how the teams finished last season:

WCHA 2010-11 Final Standings

Team	Record	Points
North Dakota	21-6-1	43
Denver	17-8-3	37
Nebraska-Omaha	17-9-2	36
Minnesota-Duluth	15-8-5	35
Minnesota	13-10-5	31
Colorado College	13-13-2	28
Wisconsin	12-13-2	27
Alaska-Anchorage	12-14-2	26
St. Cloud State	11-13-4	26
Bemidji State	8-15-5	21
MSU-Mankato	8-16-4	20
Michigan Tech	2-24-2	6

And here’s how I see the bottom six spots shaping up in the league this year…

#12 Minnesota State University – Mankato Mavericks

Head Coach: Troy Jutting

2010-11 Record: 14-18-6 overall, 8-16-4 WCHA, (11th)

Key returning players: Sr. F Michael Dorr (12-14-26), Jr. F Eriah Hayes (11-11—22), So. F Chase Grant (8-12—20), Jr. F Eli Zuck (5-13—18), Sr. F Justin Jokinen (9-8—17), Jr. D Tyler Elbrecht (1-7—8), Jr. G Phil Cook (10-13-4, 3.01, .903)

Key losses: F Rylan Galiardi, F Andy Sackrison, D Kurt Davis, D Ben Youds, D Channing Boe

2011-12 season outlook: The Mavs lost eight conference games last season by one goal.  If they can get consistent goaltending from Phil Cook and their underclassmen can overachieve, they could climb out of the WCHA cellar.

#11 Michigan Tech University Huskies

Head Coach: Mel Pearson

2010-11 Record: 4-30-4 overall, 2-24-2 WCHA, (12th)

Key returning players: So. F Milos Gordic (15-6—21), So. F Ryan Furne (12-9—21), So. F Jacob Johnstone (4-15—19), Jr. D Steven Seigo (4-13—17), Sr. F Brett Olson (4-6—10), So. D Dan Sova (0-9—9), Jr. G Kevin Genoe (3-17-2, 4.03, .883)

Key losses: F Bennett Royer, D Deron Cousens

2011-12 season outlook: With a new coach in Houghton, there is reason for optimism.  Michigan Tech’s schedule is front-loaded with home games, so the Huskies should find some success early.  MTU could climb to as high as 8th or 9th, but they’re probably a year away from double digit wins.

#10 Bemidji State University Beavers

Head Coach: Tom Serratore

2010-11 Record: 15-18-5 overall, 8-15-5, (10th)

Key returning players: Jr. F Jordan George (17-19—36), Sr. D Brad Hunt (3-18—21), Sr. F Shea Walters (1-13—14), Sr. F Jamie MacQueen (7-4—11), Sr. G Dan Bakala (14-13-4, 2.47, .919)

Key losses: F Matt Read, F Ian Lowe, D Ryan Adams

2011-12 season outlook: I doubt the Beavers will be able to pick up five wins against Omaha again this season, so they’ll have to perform better against St. Cloud State, Michigan Tech, Alaska-Anchorage, and MSU-Mankato (4-5-1 last year) if they hope to contend for home ice.  It seems like so long ago that Bemidji State was in the Frozen Four, and it will be a while before they’re back.

#9 St. Cloud State University Huskies

Head Coach: Bob Motzko

2010-11 Record: 15-18-5 overall, 11-13-4 WCHA, (T-8th)

Key returning players: Sr. F Drew LeBlanc (13-26—39), So. F Cam Reid (8-21—29), Sr. F Jared Festler (12-12—24), So. D Nick Jensen (5-18—23), Jr. F David Eddy (9-8—17), Jr. F Ben Hanowski (13-7—20), Jr. G Mike Lee (12-14-4, 2.75, .910)

Key losses: F Garrett Roe, F Aaron Marvin, D Brett Barta, D Oliver Lauridsen, G Dan Dunn

2011-12 season outlook: SCSU qualifies as last season’s biggest disappointment.  I had them picked to finish second in the league and they finished tied for eighth. They’ll probably surprise me again and finish in third or fourth place this year, but I’ll slot them in ninth and let them overachieve.

#8 University of Alaska-Anchorage Seawolves

Head Coach: Dave Shyiak

2010-11 Record: 16-18-3 overall, 12-14-2 WCHA, (T-8th)

Key returning players: So. F Jordan Kwas (4-20—24), So. F Matt Bailey (10-10—20), Jr. F Mitch Bruijsten (9-8—17), Sr. F/D Curtis Leinweber (4-6—10), So. F Brett Cameron (4-8—12), Sr. F Jade Portwood (2-9—11)

Key losses: F Tommy Grant, F Sean Wiles, D Luka (“he lives on the second floor…”) Vidmar

2011-12 season outlook: Coming into this season, the Seawolves are where some of this season’s top teams hope to be a year from now: a team that played as many as ten freshmen each night throughout the season, found some success late (sweeping Minnesota in the first round of the WCHA playoffs), and is a better team because of it.  UAA graduated only five players and has only three seniors on this year’s roster, so the present and the future look bright for Dave Shyiak’s squad.  If Alaska-Anchorage can hold serve at home (9-5-3 last season), they could contend for home ice this year.

#7 University of Wisconsin Badgers

Head Coach: Mike Eaves

2010-11 Record: 21-16-4 overall, 12-13-3 WCHA, (7th)

Key returning players: Jr. D Justin Schultz (18-29—47), So. F Mark Zengerle (5-31—36), So. F Michael Mersch (8-11—19), So. F Tyler Barnes (5-12—17), Jr. F Derek Lee (3-14—17), Jr. D John Ramage (1-10—11), So. D Frankie Simonelli (2-9—11).

Key losses: Everyone else.  F Craig Smith, F Jordy Murray, and D Jake Gardiner left early; F Podge Turnbull, F Patrick Johnson, D Craig Johnson, and G Scott Gudmandson graduated.

2010-11 season outlook: The Badgers are the only team in the league without a returning goaltender, and freshman Joel Rumpel looks to have the early edge over fellow rookie netminder Landon Peterson.  With just one senior on this year’s roster, the Badgers have a bright future but they will take their lumps this year, particularly on the road.

As you can see, I haven’t got the bottom six changing all that much, other than Mankato and Michigan Tech swapping places at the bottom.  For an in-depth look at my predictions for the top six teams in the WCHA, please click here.

I expected UND to struggle last night, and they did. There was too much space in front of North Dakota’s net, and senior goaltender Brad Eidsness made 25 of 26 saves over the first two periods to keep the Fighting Sioux in the game.

Splitting UND’s top three forwards across two lines proved effective. I particularly like Mark MacMillan with Danny Kristo and Corban Knight and expect to see that forward group quite a bit going forward. In my opinion, Brock Nelson is more effective centering the second line.

The fourth Sioux forward line (Brendan O’Donnell, Stephane Pattyn, and Connor Gaarder) did not see the ice very much, as Hakstol wasn’t rolling all four lines as often as he’d like to. On the back end, I like Andrew MacWilliam and Nick Mattson together, as the two complement each other’s skill sets.

North Dakota’s Malcolm Parks, whose penalty resulted in a power play goal for the visiting Black Bears, tied it up less than three minutes later and played his best game as a Fighting Sioux.

UND survived two goal reviews – a Maine “no goal” held up under review and Parks’ goal was upheld by replay. Those won’t always go North Dakota’s way but they were key to the game last night.

The two Sioux penalties that I felt were unnecessary were the two interference calls in the offensive zone – 200 feet from the UND net. North Dakota needs to cut down on the needless infractions and play five on five hockey to be successful.

An overlooked area of the game – faceoffs – continues to be a bright spot for UND; particularly Corban Knight. His clean draw led directly to North Dakota’s second goal.

I was looking forward to seeing Joey Diamond (#39 for the Black Bears) and Ben Blood (#24 for the Fighting Sioux) go at it again this evening, but it is not to be. Diamond will be benched by his coaching staff after taking four penalties in the opener.

All credit to Maine – they played a great road game and could easily have been up by two goals if Brad Eidsness hadn’t been rock-solid between the pipes. Eidsness earned another start with his play last night.

North Dakota played a good final five minutes; they controlled the play with the lead and extended it with a third goal.

Last night’s Ralph Engelstad Arena band, Downtown Horns, energized the crowd before the game and between periods. The Fighting Sioux are now 8-1-1 when the nine-piece horn band play in the REA concourse. Check out the “black jerseys” of arena bands at facebook.com/downtownhorns.

It’s hard to find a Sioux fan who doesn’t have admiration and respect for the Maine Black Bears. There’s a certain affinity for other great hockey teams that survive and thrive in smaller markets and are the flagship programs for their state.

More specifically, the connection between North Dakota and Maine is well-documented. Former UND head coach Dean Blais is fondly remembered for his tribute to Shawn Walsh during Walsh’s cancer battle. I remember vividly the game played in Orono, Maine on Friday, October 13th, 2000, when the defending national champion Fighting Sioux took to the ice in matching “Walsh” jerseys and donated the game-worn uniforms to defray coach Walsh’s medical costs.

It was only fitting that when the late Shawn Walsh’s shamrock was retired and hoisted to the rafters at Alfond Arena in October 2004, North Dakota was once again on hand as the visiting team.

Turning the page to this weekend’s action, both squads are hungry to pick up key wins that will prove beneficial in the Pairwise Rankings. The Black Bears have had the better of the play lately, picking up two victories in Grand Forks in October 2006 on their way to Frozen Four and earning a home sweep in Orono last season (7-3, 4-2). North Dakota will look to return the favor this weekend.

One area of concern for the Fighting Sioux is the youth of the team. At this point in the season, UND does not have many players to count on for scoring and leadership. The other two problems with North Dakota’s inexperience – defensive zone coverage and lazy penalties – were exposed last Saturday night against Boston College. If those lapses and penalties continue, we could see the same scoreboard we witnessed at Maine last season, or worse. A veteran Sioux squad traveled to face the Black Bears in October 2010 and gave Maine 19 power plays, resulting in five power play goals.

Maine narrowly missed the NCAAs last season and hope to return to postseason play after a four year absence. That will be tougher this season because the Black Bears will be without two-time Hobey Baker finalist Gustav Nyquist, who gave up his final season of eligibility after leading Maine in scoring each of his three seasons (combined 50 goals and 94 assists in 113 games). Maine is also without its top two centers from last year’s team.

Maine Team Profile

Head Coach: Tim Whitehead (11th season at Maine, 217-139-43 .598)
National Ranking: #17/#17
This Season: 1-1-0 overall, 1-1-0 Hockey East
Last Season: 17-12-7 overall, 14-8-5 Hockey East (5th)
Team Offense: 3.50 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 2.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 12.5% (2 of 16)
Penalty Kill: 90.9% (10 of 11)
Key Players: Senior F Brian Flynn (1-4-5), Senior F Spencer Abbott (2-1-3), Junior F Joey Diamond (1-2-3), Senior D Will O’Neill (0-0-0), Junior D Mike Cornell (0-1-1), Sophomore G Dan Sullivan (1-0-0, 3.01 GAA, .889 SV%)

North Dakota Team Profile

Head Coach: Dave Hakstol (8th season at UND, 188-94-27, .652)
National Ranking: #6/#6
This Season: 1-1-0, 0-0-0 WCHA
Last Season: 32-9-3 overall (NCAA Frozen Four semifinalist), 21-6-1 WCHA (1st)
Team Offense: 3.00 goals scored/game
Team Defense: 4.50 goals allowed/game
Power Play: 22.2% (2 of 9)
Penalty Kill: 88.9% (8 of 9)
Key Players: Junior F Corban Knight (2-1-3), Sophomore F Brock Nelson (2-1-3), Junior F Danny Kristo (0-3-3), Sophomore D Derek Forbort (1-1-2), Senior D Ben Blood (0-0-0), Junior G Aaron Dell (1-1-0, 4.94 GAA, .800 SV%)

By The Numbers

Last Meeting: October 23, 2010 (Orono, ME). The Black Bears chose to start freshman goaltender Dan Sullivan in the second game of the series and he responded, stopping 23 of 25 North Dakota shots in earning a 4-2 victory and a weekend sweep for his squad. Maine won the opener, 7-3.

Last Meeting in Grand Forks: October 21, 2006. Maine sophomore goaltender Ben Bishop held UND scoreless for almost 58 minutes and the Black Bears weathered a barrage of North Dakota 5-on-3 power plays as the visiting squad won 3-1 to complete the weekend sweep. Bishop made 48 of 50 saves on the weekend.

Most Important Meeting: April 6, 2000 (Providence, RI). The Fighting Sioux scored twice in the second period and Karl Goehring stopped all 30 shots he faces as UND advanced to the national title game with a 2-0 victory over Maine. Two nights later, the Green and White would claim their seventh national championship.

Last Ten: UND is 4-5-1 (.450) in the last ten meetings between the teams. Maine has won the last four contests by a combined score of 20-8.

All-time Series: North Dakota leads the all-time series 11-8-1 (.575), including a 6-3-0 (.667) edge in games played in Orono.

Game News and Notes:

Only four current Fighting Sioux players (Ben Blood, Corban Knight, Danny Kristo, Derek Rodwell) have ever scored against Maine. Each of the four collected a single point in last season’s weekend series. The Black Bears return 19 players who saw action last season; the Fighting Sioux have 14 players back. With six more saves, Brad Eidsness would become the tenth goalie in UND hockey history to record 2,000 career stops.

The Prediction

North Dakota needs to improve in all major areas to compete for points this weekend. I feel like UND has a better shot at a win on Saturday night, with a rough showing Friday. Maine 4-2, 3-3 tie.

We’ve just received word that the University of North Dakota has a tremendous opportunity to settle the Fighting Sioux nickname debate on the ice next weekend in St. Paul.

And it’s as simple as this: win two games at the Frozen Four, and keep the team name and logo forever.

NCAA president Mark Emmert said that the organization’s change of heart came after watching North Dakota play in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay, Wisconsin last weekend. Emmert said he was impressed by the quality of play and quality of character demonstrated by the Green and White against RPI and Denver. Furthermore, Emmert noted that he had been swayed by the sheer number of Sioux fans in attendance, also noting the pro-UND crowd at the WCHA Final Five.

Dr. Mark A. Emmert became the 5th Executive Director of the National Collegiate Athletic Association on November 1, 2010, and he has already made waves for his desire to have a serious discussion about whether and how to share some of the NCAA’s profits with student-athletes.

So it’s no surprise that the new president decided that the decision and settlement struck by predecessor Myles Brand deserved a second look. After some careful deliberation, Emmert came up with an idea that is both innovative and intriguing: let the team earn the right to keep the name by competing for it on the ice. He was clear, however, that anything less than a national championship would not sway the NCAA.

A news conference is scheduled for 4:01 p.m. CDT.

Here they are, my picks for the Frozen Four from each regional:

West Regional Final: Boston College over Nebraska-Omaha

Midwest Regional Final: North Dakota over Denver

Northeast Regional Final: New Hampshire over Merrimack

East Regional Final: Yale over Minnesota-Duluth

Feel free to add your own or let me know how many I get wrong. As always, thanks for reading!

Everyone’s favorite college hockey ranking system, KRACH, has the nice feature that it can be used to assign probabilities to potential matchups.

Here’s what KRACH’s forecast for the odds for each team emerging as the winner of each round the NCAA Ice Hockey tournament:

KRACH	West	Game 1	Game 2 (Region Champ)	Game 3 (Frozen four semifinal)	Game 4 (National Champ)
79.8926	1. Boston College	68.66%	42.72%	22.63%	13.81%
36.4671	4. Colorado Collage	31.34%	13.48%	4.70%	1.97%
55.0304	2. Michigan	57.52%	26.95%	11.90%	6.19%
40.6427	3. Nebraska Omaha	42.48%	16.85%	6.27%	2.79%
	Midwest
100	1. North Dakota	81.39%	54.59%	34.39%	22.75%
22.8697	4. Rensselaer	18.61%	6.02%	1.73%	0.54%
59.5685	2. Denver	64.04%	28.07%	14.21%	7.67%
33.4557	3. Western Michigan	35.96%	11.31%	4.17%	1.66%
	Northeast
56.1059	1. Miami (OH)	60.12%	33.87%	17.49%	7.86%
37.2172	4. New Hampshire	39.88%	18.39%	7.67%	2.72%
43.2361	2. Merrimack	49.70%	23.66%	10.72%	4.16%
43.7543	3. Notre Dame	50.30%	24.09%	10.98%	4.29%
	East
64.4313	1. Yale	83.12%	48.35%	28.17%	13.59%
13.0846	4. Air Force	16.88%	3.74%	0.83%	0.14%
38.8342	2. Union	42.46%	18.63%	8.53%	3.10%
52.6189	3. Minnesota Duluth	57.54%	29.28%	15.60%	6.77%

Other than the AHA champ, Cornell is the only possible non-top 16 autobid , so #14 in PWR will make it. #15 will if Cornell loses.

In the NCAA tournament: Yale, UND, BC, Michigan, Miami, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Merrimack, Union, Notre Dame, New Hampshire, Western Michigan

In if Cornell loses: Nebraska-Omaha, CC, RPI
In if Cornell wins: Cornell and two of those three (UNO, CC, RPI)

In: Autobid goes to Winner of Air Force/RIT

Out: Maine, Dartmouth, BU

A little more on UNO vs. CC vs. RPI (remember, which only matters if Cornell beats Yale, otherwise all three are in) —
Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Michigan or Notre Dame wins — RPI is out
Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Notre Dame ties Michigan, Miami beats Western Michigan — RPI is out
Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Notre Dame ties Michigan, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan beats Notre Dame — CC is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Notre Dame beats Michigan, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Notre Dame beats Michigan, Miami beats Western Michigan –- RPI is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan ties Notre Dame, Miami beats Western Michigan — CC is out
Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan ties Notre Dame, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out

Team	PWR Possibilitieis
	Overall	Win none	Win all
Yale	1 100%	1 100%	1 100%
UND	2 75% 3 25%	2 50% 3 50%	2 100%
Boston College	2 25% 3 75%	3 100%	2 50% 3 50%
Michigan	4 6% 5 16% 6 11% 7 23% 8 44%	7 21% 8 79%	4 13% 5 37% 6 25% 7 25%
Miami	4 57% 5 20% 6 18% 7 5%	4 14% 5 40% 6 36% 7 11%	4 100%
Denver	4 13% 5 39% 6 26% 7 22%	5 28% 6 28% 7 44%	4 25% 5 50% 6 25%
UMD	9 56% 10 44%	n/a	n/a
Merrimack	4 25% 5 25% 6 45% 7 5%	6 89% 7 11%	4 50% 5 50%
Union	7 44% 8 56%	n/a	n/a
Notre Dame	9 44% 10 6% 11 50%	10 10% 11 90%	9 100%
New Hampshire	12 63% 13 27% 14 10%	n/a	n/a
Western Michigan	10 50% 11 50%	10 44% 11 56%	10 56% 11 44%
Nebraska-Omaha	12 22% 13 38% 14 24% 15 16%	n/a	n/a
CC	13 25% 14 53% 15 22%	n/a	n/a
Dartmouth	16 44% 17 4% 18 8% 19 44%	17 8% 18 14% 19 78%	16 100%
Rensselaer	12 15% 13 10% 14 13% 15 63%	n/a	n/a
Boston University	16 56% 17 44%	n/a	n/a
Maine	17 52% 18 48%	n/a	n/a
AA	20 50% 21 50%	n/a	n/a